Guns & Roses III [Game over]


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Post Post #38 (isolation #0) » Tue Dec 03, 2019 11:10 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

In post 19, DogWatch wrote:Hiiiiii all, first game in two years. I forgot almost everything.

But I remember this guy. :D

VOTE: GuiltyLion
aaah I'm sorry but I don't remember you? Did we play a game together?
In post 35, Salamence20 wrote:
In post 28, Datisi wrote:
In post 23, Menalque wrote:Calling it now the scum team is literally datisi, SS
There's 3 scum tho
Only scum would notice such a glaring omission

VOTE: Datisi
this
VOTE: Datisi
"I think I no longer believe in monsters as faces in the floor or feral infants or vampires or whatever. I think at seventeen now I believe the only real monsters might be the type of liar where there's simply no way to tell. The ones who give nothing away"
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Post Post #42 (isolation #1) » Tue Dec 03, 2019 11:22 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

I think we played one game together where I nailed you as scum on your replace-in, but then you successfully argued your way out of it to the point where I townread you and then lost as a result. No love lost at all though, you played well
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Post Post #106 (isolation #2) » Tue Dec 03, 2019 3:08 pm

Post by GuiltyLion »

In post 45, Pretentious wrote:
In post 42, GuiltyLion wrote:I think we played one game together where I nailed you as scum on your replace-in, but then you successfully argued your way out of it to the point where I townread you and then lost as a result. No love lost at all though, you played well
Was this Let’s Talk About An On-Going game?
nah it was Charging Up
In post 58, Menalque wrote:@GL do you think was genuine?
I thought it was presented in a joking manner (and Salamence has since said it was RVS/joke) but personally I viewed it as something that's worth a non-RVS vote and I was kinda hoping Salamence felt the same. I think if you genuinely forgot when posting that there were 3 scum then that's a townslip and Datisi pointing it out yet without any thought to your alignment feels like something scum might do.
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Post Post #110 (isolation #3) » Tue Dec 03, 2019 3:12 pm

Post by GuiltyLion »

I mean asking him directly at this point isn't gonna yield anything useful but if he legit wasn't aware or thinking about the number of scum then it's 100% town. don't see how you could think otherwise
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Post Post #118 (isolation #4) » Tue Dec 03, 2019 3:28 pm

Post by GuiltyLion »

do you see/agree with what I'm saying about how her comment is kinda awkward in that she's making a joke about something that might be a townslip yet not addressing that it might be a townslip
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Post Post #121 (isolation #5) » Tue Dec 03, 2019 3:51 pm

Post by GuiltyLion »

If you've got a better vote then share it, otherwise I'm going to vote the things I find potentially indicative. It's early game we have nothing but reaches so far
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Post Post #122 (isolation #6) » Tue Dec 03, 2019 3:52 pm

Post by GuiltyLion »

And I think you misunderstand, even if you knew already there were 3 scum you may not have been explicitly thinking about that when joking that the scumteam is 2 people. Which would still be a townslip bc I don't think scum would forget that so easily
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Post Post #135 (isolation #7) » Tue Dec 03, 2019 5:33 pm

Post by GuiltyLion »

In post 132, AaronFrost wrote:
In post 106, GuiltyLion wrote:I thought it was presented in a joking manner (and Salamence has since said it was RVS/joke) but personally I viewed it as something that's worth a non-RVS vote and I was kinda hoping Salamence felt the same. I think if you genuinely forgot when posting that there were 3 scum then that's a townslip and Datisi pointing it out yet without any thought to your alignment feels like something scum might do.
I mean town can easily look at the OP and see how many scum there are.

I also find it weird that you read Salamence's vote as joking yet read the banter between Menal/Datisi as serious.
I didn't read the banter as serious - what makes you say that I did? You can be joking and still mess up how many scum there are. If anything part of the reason I was pinged by Datisi is
because
she wasn't more serious.
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Post Post #136 (isolation #8) » Tue Dec 03, 2019 5:35 pm

Post by GuiltyLion »

In post 132, AaronFrost wrote:I mean town can easily look at the OP and see how many scum there are.
Also this doesn't make sense regarding what we were talking about, the whole point is that scum know how many scum there are and so if you forget or get it wrong then you're more likely town. This reply has no relevance to that logic
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Post Post #144 (isolation #9) » Tue Dec 03, 2019 5:47 pm

Post by GuiltyLion »

In post 139, Something_Smart wrote:
In post 136, GuiltyLion wrote:the whole point is that scum know how many scum there are and so if you forget or get it wrong then you're more likely town.
That wasn't the whole point; part of stated that Datisi correcting the number of scum made her more likely scum. That part is relevant to Aaron's reply.
Eh okay that's fair

I guess I would then clarify that it's jokingly correcting Mena but then not doing anything else that I find scummy, not the act of correcting itself
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Post Post #257 (isolation #10) » Wed Dec 04, 2019 9:30 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

In post 156, Datisi wrote:
In post 144, GuiltyLion wrote:I guess I would then clarify that it's jokingly correcting Mena but then not doing anything else that I find scummy, not the act of correcting itself
Err, what else was I supposed to do? Or are you referring to me being absent from the thread in general?
I think it's fundamentally just that I disagree with you that Menalque is likely to be thinking "3 is the correct number but I'm going to joke that it's only 2 people are scum". I thought it was town-indicative if not a straight townslip and I felt some kinda recognition that it was +town-indicative was missing from how you replied to him.

What's your read on Menalque now?
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Post Post #258 (isolation #11) » Wed Dec 04, 2019 9:34 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

In post 205, Menalque wrote:Also thought this was super noncommittal and I also think GL would be quite likely to want me to TR him after nomination mafia
what do you think I should have committed to there that I didn't commit to?

I do want you to TR me but I'm kinda confident it'll happen organically I'm not trying to force it
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Post Post #259 (isolation #12) » Wed Dec 04, 2019 9:35 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

In post 207, Menalque wrote:Like wanting to be seen to do something beyond RVS
lmao I really do get scumread for this all the time

I want to do something beyond RVS, I don't just want to be
seen
for that. Scum!me usually would rather not be seen at all and the way I play as town is actually kinda hard for me to emulate as scum because it tends to draw this attention
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Post Post #260 (isolation #13) » Wed Dec 04, 2019 9:36 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

In post 233, AaronFrost wrote:Even if Icon is considered 'mislynchable' I'm still going to push actions I find scummy and right now I'm not a fan of it giving Mena towncred for something he shouldn't get towncred for.
what's your read on Menalque then?
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Post Post #261 (isolation #14) » Wed Dec 04, 2019 9:38 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

In post 250, Something_Smart wrote:
In post 249, Menalque wrote:Like not aggressively so but it seems like a lot of whatever anyone is posting you’re shutting down before it gets off the ground
No I'm not, why would you think that
:P

That's kinda my MO, especially early-game.
yeah if I may butt in here this is like classic S_S and I have clashed with him many times over it, I think this is a more townie game from him so far

as for my reads in general I'm townreading Sala, Menalque, Dogwatch, Creature, S_S, Ico. I don't think the Ico wagon is very good and would like to make another attempt to kickstart the AF one

VOTE: AaronFrost
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Post Post #264 (isolation #15) » Wed Dec 04, 2019 9:42 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

the case is he's making scummy posts, especially with how he reacted to and exaggerated Creature's posts around him and the way he's shading Ico for townreading Menalque
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Post Post #266 (isolation #16) » Wed Dec 04, 2019 9:46 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

put plainly I don't think there was anything "gross" or "inconsistent" about Creature's posts
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Post Post #485 (isolation #17) » Fri Dec 06, 2019 7:02 pm

Post by GuiltyLion »

reading up
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Post Post #486 (isolation #18) » Fri Dec 06, 2019 7:10 pm

Post by GuiltyLion »

In post 341, alimdia wrote:@SOmething_Smart, any reason why you didn't RVS? Just curious.

Also, I just looked through all your posts again. You post very neutral, answer and ask a bunch of questions but haven't drawn any conclusions from them.
You have too many posts for me to link all of them, but I encourage everyone to ISO SOmething_Smart up to Post 310.

I think thats a very strong scumtell.

YOu have lots of posts, made lots of neutral statements or fluff, but haven't had any conclusions.

VOTE: SOmething_Smart
so I'm just kinda skimming along to get a sense of major events before I do any deep-diving but this post really stands out as disconnected from the flow of the game, AF/Amrun is the hot topic and almidia just drops this outta nowhere?

"very strong" also seems like embellishment especially since I and others already riffed on how this is S_S meta

wanted to mark this as an especially scummy case/vote as I continue reading
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Post Post #487 (isolation #19) » Fri Dec 06, 2019 7:17 pm

Post by GuiltyLion »

In post 406, DrDolittle wrote:I could not be more uninterested in amrun wagon
why? even if you disagree with it, I think it's an important wagon

also my snap thoughts on amrun wagon at page 17 - I think I was wrong on AF and I agree with a lot of the points raised against Amrun. Her reaction to DogWatch's vote felt notably scummy to me too on first pass, but I wanna finish this catchup, assess my overall game state read and gather my thoughts before I dive deep. But yeah I'm warmed up to town!AF and I also almost entirely disagree with Sala's reads which is making me think I might need to revisit that slot as well
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Post Post #488 (isolation #20) » Fri Dec 06, 2019 7:34 pm

Post by GuiltyLion »

In post 449, Something_Smart wrote:I mean, I don't like it either, but it doesn't make him scum. Do you think it does?
If I may jump in, I think it does! He's making arguments for why you're scum that feel manufactured to fit a predetermined conclusion, like he knows it's generally accepted to say "fence sitting = scum" and he's disregarding your actual content to stick to that formula. I think if he were engaging with you honestly there'd be less snark and more focus on the arguments that you're making.

also I changed my mind again from my last post, Sala's back to a townread
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Post Post #489 (isolation #21) » Fri Dec 06, 2019 7:43 pm

Post by GuiltyLion »

alright I've read up but my energy is rapidly draining as it's been a long couple days and it's getting late here. I'll be around more for a bit tonight but ~ real effort ~ will come tomorrow probably.

I'm updating my townreads to include AF and Datisi. Amrun is a spicy wagon that I think has p good odds of scum and I'm gonna join it, but right now I feel I got a stronger read on alimdia. I think the S_S tunnel is a distraction and disingenuous, and has given alimdia cover not to comment on anything else actually relevant going on.

AF - do you still want me to explain my townreads from half the game ago? I can do that but frankly I don't really want to unless this will genuinely help you sort me

VOTE: Amrun
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Post Post #530 (isolation #22) » Sat Dec 07, 2019 1:17 pm

Post by GuiltyLion »

In post 500, texcat wrote:
In post 489, GuiltyLion wrote:alright I've read up but my energy is rapidly draining as it's been a long couple days and it's getting late here. I'll be around more for a bit tonight but ~ real effort ~ will come tomorrow probably.

I'm updating my townreads to include AF and Datisi. Amrun is a spicy wagon that I think has p good odds of scum and I'm gonna join it, but right now I feel I got a stronger read on alimdia. I think the S_S tunnel is a distraction and disingenuous, and has given alimdia cover not to comment on anything else actually relevant going on.

AF - do you still want me to explain my townreads from half the game ago? I can do that but frankly I don't really want to unless this will genuinely help you sort me

VOTE: Amrun
It bothers me that you have a stronger read on Alimdia. Why not vote there?
Because i don't think voting Alimdia would generate any info or likely lead to a lynch and in a game with this many people it's better to wagon than to vanity vote
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Post Post #531 (isolation #23) » Sat Dec 07, 2019 1:20 pm

Post by GuiltyLion »

I think assuming you can 3p solve at this point is silly
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Post Post #532 (isolation #24) » Sat Dec 07, 2019 1:36 pm

Post by GuiltyLion »

In post 495, AaronFrost wrote:
In post 486, GuiltyLion wrote:so I'm just kinda skimming along to get a sense of major events before I do any deep-diving but this post really stands out as disconnected from the flow of the game, AF/Amrun is the hot topic and almidia just drops this outta nowhere?
No comment on Salamence's problems with SS?
Nah Sala has been doing a lot outside of that whereas Alimdia is focusing on S_S at the expense of everything else. Also, Sala seemed to straight up acknowledge that it was playstyle clash and not necessarily alignment indicative whereas alimdia reads like he
wants it
to be alignment indicative
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Post Post #544 (isolation #25) » Sat Dec 07, 2019 1:55 pm

Post by GuiltyLion »

In post 533, Menalque wrote:
In post 531, GuiltyLion wrote:I think assuming you can 3p solve at this point is silly
I don’t think you understand what I’m doing tbh
What makes you say that? I think I can follow and understand it, I just also think there's probably scum in your blindspot like 80% of the time, or at least there is for me whenever I'm trying to look at associatives and teams d1
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Post Post #695 (isolation #26) » Sun Dec 08, 2019 12:00 pm

Post by GuiltyLion »

In post 582, AaronFrost wrote:amrun [7] - Menalque, Datisi, Iconeum, AaronFrost,
{Dogwatch, GuiltyLion, Creature}
<-- Pretty sure at least one of these three are scum. Possibly more than one.


PEDIT: I think his hop on the Amrun wagon was the worst
In post 584, AaronFrost wrote:
In post 489, GuiltyLion wrote:I'm updating my townreads to include AF and Datisi.
Amrun is a spicy wagon that I think has p good odds of scum and I'm gonna join it, but right now I feel I got a stronger read on alimdia
. I think the S_S tunnel is a distraction and disingenuous, and has given alimdia cover not to comment on anything else actually relevant going on.

VOTE: Amrun
Why exactly did he join the wagon anyways? He makes it clear that his read on alimdia is much stronger but then joins the wagon after saying scum is on it because... why? How is he reading Amrun? He never says.

Earlier he also stated he townreads Icon, Mena, Dogwatch and Creature. Then before he hops on he includes me and Datisi in his townreads. That's literally the entire wagon right there.
first off - I see this happen a lot in mafia games. Someone acts scummy (regardless of their alignment), someone relatively town leader-esque presents a case, and a whole bunch of people town or scum jump on because the slot looks scummy.

That doesn't mean the suspicious slot is suddenly town now. You all are just assuming Amrun is town because a wagon sprung up. Good wagons can go fast especially if townies are mind-melding. I strongly disagree that wagon speed is ever indicative of alignment and if anything I think scum are often afraid to sheep onto fast mislynch wagons because they know it's a mislynch.

Then, you say, "there is no counter wagon!". What just happened on the last 4 pages should make it pretty clear that
I am now the counterwagon
.

Finally, I don't just hop on that wagon as scum. Like, let's make a similar argument S_S was making earlier in the game. If I, as town, always have novel and detailed and well-founded reasons to vote someone, why would I not make an effort to recreate those as scum? Do you really think scum!me is so blasé and arguably
stupid
to talk about how I think alimdia odds of scum are >> than Amrun odds of scum yet still vote the leading clear wagon?

I already explained that I was townreading the people on the Amrun wagon and that it's far more useful to join game-advancing wagons than to vanity vote in a game with a large number of players. I'm not townreading Amrun and so I feel comfortable voting for her. I'm not gonna pretend like I've got some cool new insightful scumtell that provides me with An Original Reason To Vote This Wagon when I don't have one, I just liked the case Menalque was making, didn't scumread anybody on the wagon, and felt it would be a good vote.
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Post Post #696 (isolation #27) » Sun Dec 08, 2019 12:02 pm

Post by GuiltyLion »

In post 586, AaronFrost wrote:If he's townreading everyone on the wagon, then how is there good odds of scum on it from his point of view?

PEDIT: Really seems like he cares how he looks in that post. Like I feel like as town no matter what you should go for your strongest scumreads.

there's two or three days left in this game and I know I don't have the pull right now to convince 7 other people to vote alimdia with me.

Also, I said it was good odds Amrun is scum, not that there are good odds of scum on it.
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Post Post #697 (isolation #28) » Sun Dec 08, 2019 12:04 pm

Post by GuiltyLion »

In post 611, Something_Smart wrote:So I wouldn't exactly say I townread him, that's asking for disaster given our history, but I definitely see how his posts could be coming from a town mindset.
what games have there been where you've townread me when I was scum? From my recollection you just pretty much always scumread me and then are wrong most of the time because I'm town most of the time
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Post Post #698 (isolation #29) » Sun Dec 08, 2019 12:07 pm

Post by GuiltyLion »

In post 642, Menalque wrote:
In post 629, Salamence20 wrote:
In post 620, Menalque wrote:I think at this point I'm more confident on this

VOTE: ddl
I have no issue with this, but anyway you would be willing to compromise on DW?
Not rly I think she’s newb!town

I do wanna see her response to me tho
I've played with GinghamDog before, look up her history. She's smart and she's not a newb.
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Post Post #699 (isolation #30) » Sun Dec 08, 2019 12:10 pm

Post by GuiltyLion »

I actually do agree though I think both DooLittle and Dogwatch are town, still. I think scum in my voters would actually be on the early side of the wagon, either texcat or Amrun. Or both!
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Post Post #700 (isolation #31) » Sun Dec 08, 2019 12:13 pm

Post by GuiltyLion »

In post 688, FakeGod wrote:amrun [4] - Datisi, Iconeum, GuiltyLion, Creature
I'm pretty sure this is all town and still a good wagon btw

the people I'm not townreading are texcat, alimdia, Amrun, Pretentious, mayyyybe Smart after he seemed reluctant to townread or defend me once my wagon got serious, but ehh that's not a particularly strong sign either way.
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Post Post #703 (isolation #32) » Sun Dec 08, 2019 12:25 pm

Post by GuiltyLion »

In post 701, DrDolittle wrote:Wanna do texcat w me?
I could do texcat too but why should I switch from a 4 vote wagon to a 2 vote one?
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Post Post #705 (isolation #33) » Sun Dec 08, 2019 12:30 pm

Post by GuiltyLion »

ehhh I think I'm still hoping Sala/Menalque will come back around and perhaps we can get Smart or Pretentious to join

but if more people wanna switch to texcat I'm absolutely game, let that be known
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Post Post #707 (isolation #34) » Sun Dec 08, 2019 12:32 pm

Post by GuiltyLion »

if we don't get any major serious wagons, then people aren't forced to give real opinions on anything. Amrun at L-2 or L-1 is important, it is something that every player needs to react to and puts scum in a more difficult position regardless of your alignment.

Five different wagons at L-6 or L-7 or whatever isn't a difficult game state for scum. They can just park a vote on convenient scumread of choice and then compromise Lynch to whatever's easiest once everyone starts panicking about deadline
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Post Post #708 (isolation #35) » Sun Dec 08, 2019 12:34 pm

Post by GuiltyLion »

like in my mind it would have been far more scum-serving for me to randomly vote Alimdia instead of joining a promising Amrun wagon, even if you are town. It's actually pretty much why I'm scum reading Alimdia in fact, they spend more of their time riffing on S_S (a completely non-existent wagon) than posting anything relevant to the likely lynchs and flips at hand
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Post Post #710 (isolation #36) » Sun Dec 08, 2019 12:41 pm

Post by GuiltyLion »

I still tried to "stir up shit" (as it were) with alimdia despite not voting there. However putting votes on a leading wagon is more direct in forcing
other people
to get involved in the shit. I can push alimdia however much I want but people can ignore me, especially if most other players are looking elsewhere, they can't so easily ignore my vote on a leading wagon that's growing quickly.

and it's not like you also aren't a scumread as well. I just didn't write up a whole bunch of stuff on it because I felt other people already touched on the things that were motivating my vote.
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Post Post #711 (isolation #37) » Sun Dec 08, 2019 12:43 pm

Post by GuiltyLion »

Also, if your policy is to always push your number one scumread, then I want to ask why do you think I am the
most
likely scum out of other players people are talking about as scum candidates (alimdia, texcat, Doolittle - though I think he's town -, etc), and other players who aren't giving as much engagement as I have. Is it just because I voted you? Do you think scum are more likely to vote you in the way that I did than to not vote you?
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Post Post #713 (isolation #38) » Sun Dec 08, 2019 12:50 pm

Post by GuiltyLion »

It clearly did make you feel more pressured given your reaction to it, lol
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Post Post #714 (isolation #39) » Sun Dec 08, 2019 12:50 pm

Post by GuiltyLion »

In post 475, Datisi wrote:Maybe so. Maybe I'm reading too much into "can you provide examples" vs "can you actually provide any examples".

Hm. I was a bit weirded out by because the last part read almost tmi-y wrt my alignment, because I don't think I've been extremely Towny this game, especially from your pov since I've just sheeped another player onto you with a very boring case.
I also think this was still an extremely good point, wouldn't call this "hot garbage" at all
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Post Post #715 (isolation #40) » Sun Dec 08, 2019 12:54 pm

Post by GuiltyLion »

I'd also say that giving scum an excuse to vote me as a viable counter wagon (regardless of whether you are town or not) did a lot for the game even if I'm flipped for it, this whole sequence of pages from 22-29 or whatever will be very informative in a few days
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Post Post #716 (isolation #41) » Sun Dec 08, 2019 12:55 pm

Post by GuiltyLion »

you also didn't really answer my question. I don't want why you think I could be scum, I want why you think I'm
more
likely scum than the non-entities or the people avoiding commenting on your wagon in any way whatsoever. I completely disagree that my vote did not advance the game and therefore I think your point about "dead weight" zone of my vote is kinda just sophist bs
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Post Post #719 (isolation #42) » Sun Dec 08, 2019 1:05 pm

Post by GuiltyLion »

In post 717, Amrun wrote:I don’t know what gave you the impression your vote made me feel more pressured though. Because I voted you?
I mean you clearly reacted to the wagon gaining strength on you, your activity increased and you started arguing with all the posts and votes coming your way. If you're really aiming to suggest you don't feel any pressure being the first to get 6 or 7 votes this game I think that's disingenuous.
In post 717, Amrun wrote:That’s entirely my point. You could have potentially started an alimdah counterwagon that would have been just as informative, regardless of who flipped. You chose not to even try with the flimsy excuse you would have been ignored. WHY would you have been ignored?
I didn't
want
to start an alimdia counter wagon though, because I thought your wagon was good! I just wanted to call out a scumread that I thought nobody had also picked up on yet.

I mean I guess maybe I wouldn't have been ignored but I would have (rightly) been seen as distracting from the Amrun wagon by the people interested in that at the time. And given that literally no one else IIRC was scumreading alimdia to the extent that I was, I felt it wasn't likely to get traction unless I tried RC-style to forcefully hijack the game to force it, and I just didn't wanna do that. rather sheep.
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Post Post #786 (isolation #43) » Mon Dec 09, 2019 9:23 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

The only reason people are scumreading me is because I called out alimdia while hopping on the Amrun wagon. I've given my explanation for this - even though I had a stronger read on Alimdia, I didn't think that wagon would go, I thought furthering the Amrun wagon would be more useful for the game state, and I wasn't townreading Amrun and felt it was also a good vote. You can disagree with one or all of these reasons but those remain my motivations and I think they're entirely justifiable from a town mindset.

So if people are still scumreading me after that that's their prerogative, but it feels quite tunnel-y and shortsighted IMO. Notice how texcat has no proactive commentary about Amrun until pressured/forced to give it. If she were townreading Amrun, why not say that earlier when the wagon was in full force?
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Post Post #788 (isolation #44) » Mon Dec 09, 2019 9:28 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

Being honest I haven't really looked at Creature much since I got some slight town vibes from his early game but it's true he's dropped off a lot since then. I think he's less towny than Doolittle and Menalque I'm willing to hear your case there but I feel you're off on that one.

@Creature
In post 509, Creature wrote:I think texcat is town
So is GuiltyLiar and Saladance
Why the texcat townread?
In post 559, Creature wrote:
In post 545, DrDolittle wrote:Creature come back and tell them I play like dogshit as town
You're usually visibly town as town
What's your read on Doolittle?
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Post Post #789 (isolation #45) » Mon Dec 09, 2019 9:30 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

In post 787, texcat wrote:So it wasn't the actual vote that looked scummy to me, it was the way he continued to defend it as serious.
Do you understand my reasoning though? I think Menalque's post was a townslip or at worst ++town-indicative. I felt it was awkward that Datisi didn't comment on that. That's not to say "omg Datisi is scum" (I have since completely reversed and find Datisi strong town now) but it's good enough for a serious early game vote.

Why is any of that reasoning scummy? Why is me giving that explanation and then defending it something that is more likely to come from scum than town?
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Post Post #792 (isolation #46) » Mon Dec 09, 2019 9:39 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

VOTE: Creature
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Post Post #793 (isolation #47) » Mon Dec 09, 2019 9:41 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

In post 787, texcat wrote:I think Amrun is town mostly based on the wagons. If GL were to flip town at some point, I'd definitely revisit Amrun.
and yes this is potentially lining up mislynches and regardless of alignment it's illogical circular reasoning

"Amrun's wagon happened fast, there's probably scum on it. I like GL the least and have another reason for scumreading him, so he's likely scum".
"GL is scummy, voted Amrun, and is the counter-wagon to Amrun, so she's probably town"
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Post Post #796 (isolation #48) » Mon Dec 09, 2019 9:45 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

I think if I'm lynched Amrun should not be lynched for at least a few days and the first lynch should be between the people who aren't commenting on any of the D1 shit. texcat is bad but alimdia remains worse.
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Post Post #797 (isolation #49) » Mon Dec 09, 2019 9:46 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

In post 735, alimdia wrote:Please, people stop saying 'if I was scum I would do this. I didn't therefore I am town'.... Also SS's argument is shit btw, but lets not get into that again...
Finally... your spot , the counter wagon spot, what are you thinking of the people on it now? after this...

VOTE: GuilityLion

I am slightly skeptical though, because DW and texcat are both on this wagon.
like I want everyone who was suspicious of my Amrun vote (DogWatch, AaronFrost, tex, etc) as "likely scum on the Amrun wagon" to just... look at this. Just look at it. Assume that I'm town for a second and read this and tell me what you think.
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Post Post #801 (isolation #50) » Mon Dec 09, 2019 10:01 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

In post 799, DogWatch wrote:My problem right now is that my two top scum reads don't make much sense together. GL and Creature BOTH being scum seems really unlikely considering how fast they jumped the amrun wagon one after the other, and I know they're both better players than to do something that sloppy and obvious if the efforts were scum-coordinated.
just re-think your scumread on me and it'll solve your problem :]
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Post Post #813 (isolation #51) » Mon Dec 09, 2019 10:09 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

@Dog - I hadn't read Creature in ISO or thought about him at all when I made , I was just coasting off of my early game townread which I first mentioned in . I hadn't paid attention to him since then, once he drew votes I re-ISO'd him and challenged myself about it and realized I didn't really have good reasons to townread him to begin with. I am/was also trying to rethink my view of the game state if Amrun is town
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Post Post #816 (isolation #52) » Mon Dec 09, 2019 10:10 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

Menalque you keep asserting that DDL is doing nothing but that's not my impression. He specifically tried to get me onto texcat
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Post Post #822 (isolation #53) » Mon Dec 09, 2019 10:12 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

you're moving the goalposts now - there may not be conviction but it certainly counts as doing something especially since that was a novel attempt at another wagon at that stage in the game. He also re-joined Amrun later which is also a significant move game-state wise
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Post Post #831 (isolation #54) » Mon Dec 09, 2019 10:18 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

for me voting Creature was one of those things where initially I felt fairly meh about it but I started liking it more and more as I continued thinking about it, which is the opposite of what usually happens and signifies to me that it's good

@Menalque - I'm just arguing that DDL is doing stuff, which seems to be contra your main point about why we should vote him (he isn't doing stuff). You can continue to hand wave away the examples I've listed, but I think you'd be hard pressed to genuinely argue that DDL is making less of an impact on the game than Creature is. And I like Smart's recent post about this too
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Post Post #840 (isolation #55) » Mon Dec 09, 2019 10:22 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

I think it's scummy that when DDL made a plea to Creature to defend his townmeta, Creature made a joke about it and failed to give any kind of real read on DDL. Discuss.
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Post Post #843 (isolation #56) » Mon Dec 09, 2019 10:24 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

actually maybe I misinterpreted the tone of that Creature post.

Still though, it's shading DDL without actually calling him scum, so my broader point stands
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Post Post #845 (isolation #57) » Mon Dec 09, 2019 10:24 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

can I also be very likely town on a Creature scumflip?
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Post Post #848 (isolation #58) » Mon Dec 09, 2019 10:26 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

why is that Ew?
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Post Post #859 (isolation #59) » Mon Dec 09, 2019 10:31 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

@Smart - I guess my thinking is similar to the Datisi thing at the beginning of the game, if Creature thinks DDL's meta doesn't make him town here, why would he not go a step further than to just shoot down DDL's appeal to him? All he says is "you're not town by meta" and leaves, no thoughts beyond that?

@Amrun because I like towncred as town and I'm kinda sick of being the leading wagon lol. It's not a bus, I would be sticking on you if Creature/I were teamed together.
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Post Post #924 (isolation #60) » Mon Dec 09, 2019 11:02 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

In post 901, Salamence20 wrote:There seems to be some loud voices determined to not see Creature voted...
indeed

Menalque do you really think Creature is town or are you just so much more confident in your DDL read that you're trying to derail any and all other wagons

cause frankly where was this passionate defense when it was me getting votes and not Creature
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Post Post #958 (isolation #61) » Mon Dec 09, 2019 2:08 pm

Post by GuiltyLion »

at the risk of sounding crazy I'm rereading and starting to have doubts about my alimdia scumread

I also think Sala keyed in on something insightful regarding a Creature wagon in that he's a good candidate to make people put their money where their mouth is in terms of reads on him - townie sounding opening but disappeared since, that's a tough slot to evaluate and I think forcing the issue on him in particular generates new & useful information.
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Post Post #962 (isolation #62) » Mon Dec 09, 2019 2:53 pm

Post by GuiltyLion »

Damn I forgot that Dogwatch comment about Creature meta earlier in the game, good recall. That does make her hesitance to vote him look a lot worse
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Post Post #977 (isolation #63) » Mon Dec 09, 2019 7:14 pm

Post by GuiltyLion »

In post 969, DogWatch wrote:My hesitancy to vote him centers partly on questioning whether or not that meta is old/outdated, as I alluded to at some point earlier, and partly due to lack of reactions from him to anything that’s recently happened. You even said yourself that his inactivity is difficult to evaluate so I’m not following why you’d expect me to switch votes when there’s so much ambiguity at play anyway.
I'm not understanding how you can say you think this is his scum meta, yet be less certain about voting him than voting me. You really think I'm still more likely to be scum than Creature based off that one Amrun vote despite all the rest of the effort/engagement I've put in since?

Like if I had just not posted at all and similarly had a "lack of reactions to anything", would that make me
less
suspicious in your mind?
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Post Post #982 (isolation #64) » Mon Dec 09, 2019 7:34 pm

Post by GuiltyLion »

Ico that's like the least useful vote right now

It sounds like you're just salty he called for you to be vigged
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Post Post #984 (isolation #65) » Mon Dec 09, 2019 7:43 pm

Post by GuiltyLion »

I haven't looked yet frankly but I don't see why calling for "n00b play" to be vigged - even if town - is inherently scummy. There's like 5 or 6 slots I'd currently vig myself right now, they can't all be scum. Sometimes it's nice to just resolve a slot even if they're town cause they may be lynchbait or helping scum with mislynches.

What are your thoughts on this little Creature/DDL/GL trifecta of wagons we got going on right now? If forced to choose, which would you join, which would you absolutely not join?
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Post Post #987 (isolation #66) » Mon Dec 09, 2019 7:51 pm

Post by GuiltyLion »

I mean the things I'm trying to get you to talk about are the three most likely potential lynches to happen today and it's objectively important that people participate in discussion around those

If you truly don't have anything to say about all three wagons and slots then you deserve to be vigged lol
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Post Post #990 (isolation #67) » Mon Dec 09, 2019 7:59 pm

Post by GuiltyLion »

It was a good wagon for its time and place but I'm feeling better and better about town!Amrun as this day goes on
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Post Post #1103 (isolation #68) » Tue Dec 10, 2019 6:41 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

If Creature is scum I'm looking in Menalque/DogWatch/texcat/Pretentious. I don't think any of the late joiners feel like bussers - mayyyybe AF but he would really be the only candidate and I don't think there's a good reason to prefer a scum bussing explanation for his vote over him just being town.

If Creature is town I'd take a harder look at DDL and probably AF in that world. It did raise my eyebrows that he called my "blatantly" scummy - I altogether disagree that asking for towncred is scummy, like sure if that was
all
somebody was doing at the expense of any sorting/game-solving, maybe, but either alignment should want to be read as town. If you're town and being townread then you're not being lynchbait/distraction for scum to push and you're improving the overall odds of finding and lynching scum. Realistically I probably post that comment as either alignment but it's certainly not something that town me doesn't do.
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Post Post #1104 (isolation #69) » Tue Dec 10, 2019 6:44 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

actually scratch that point on texcat, I still think texcat looks townier on a Creature scumflip because I thought Creature's townread on tex may be TMI townspewing
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Post Post #1127 (isolation #70) » Tue Dec 10, 2019 8:36 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

In post 1124, Creature wrote:The tell is pretty obvious:

If it's a player I can immediately tell it's town and I can't tell it's town this game in any way, it means it's just scum
can you link me to the games where you could immediately tell AF was town?
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Post Post #1128 (isolation #71) » Tue Dec 10, 2019 8:36 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

or just name them if you don't wanna grab links
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Post Post #1138 (isolation #72) » Tue Dec 10, 2019 9:01 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

In post 1135, Something_Smart wrote:If he's scum, he thought... (Fill in the blanks. Why did he continue to lurk after being wagoned for lurking?)
maybe he thought he could gamble on Menalque effectively driving the DDL counterwagon to save his skin

not saying that's like the
most
likely explanation, but it's not unreasonable that scum him would continue to lurk
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Post Post #1143 (isolation #73) » Tue Dec 10, 2019 9:03 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

In post 1127, GuiltyLion wrote:
In post 1124, Creature wrote:The tell is pretty obvious:

If it's a player I can immediately tell it's town and I can't tell it's town this game in any way, it means it's just scum
can you link me to the games where you could immediately tell AF was town?
Creature you should answer this because it will give your read on AF a lot more validity if we can see that there are immediately noticeable differences in AF's play
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Post Post #1166 (isolation #74) » Tue Dec 10, 2019 9:30 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

In post 1147, Creature wrote:
In post 1143, GuiltyLion wrote:
In post 1127, GuiltyLion wrote:
In post 1124, Creature wrote:The tell is pretty obvious:

If it's a player I can immediately tell it's town and I can't tell it's town this game in any way, it means it's just scum
can you link me to the games where you could immediately tell AF was town?
Creature you should answer this because it will give your read on AF a lot more validity if we can see that there are immediately noticeable differences in AF's play
I have this:
viewtopic.php?f=50&t=80540

I had one other game in mind but can't link it rn
hm, I'm looking at the dual-ISO in your game. It's a good one to bring up since Datisi/Menalque were in it as well and I'd love to hear their thoughts on your point here. I'm just skimming at a high level right now but I'm not sure it's slam-dunk AF looks different in this game.

I will say he does seem a bit more proactively involved in interacting with more players outside of just a handful like I get the sense from him here, but that may be a function of 9p vs 14p since I know I definitely play those sizes differently, or even just availability in terms of RL time.

This post strikes me as interesting because he's scumreading Claim for hopping onto a wagon "without an original thought" which is (again) a terrible reason to scumread somebody but not all that different from his push on me here?

can you say why you think his game here is significantly different?

I also didn't find evidence that you especially obvtownread him in that game - you didn't push him or scumread him, but you did call one of his posts fake and the closest you gave to a townread was saying another post was "probably" genuine.
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Post Post #1176 (isolation #75) » Tue Dec 10, 2019 9:45 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

yeah I'm a little surprised Smart didn't seem to bother to check the game and just defaulted to "Creature seems to know what he's talking about", I figured Smart would be more rigorous/tryhard than that, but I don't think it's really a compelling enough reason to go against my existing townread on him though, he could just be town being lazy and looking for reasons to justify his cold feet
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Post Post #1180 (isolation #76) » Tue Dec 10, 2019 9:48 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

I think Aaron is town still
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Post Post #1182 (isolation #77) » Tue Dec 10, 2019 9:49 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

I mean you would have at least found the thing I found (that Aaron also brought up) where Creature didn't appear to obvtownread AF in that game
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Post Post #1195 (isolation #78) » Tue Dec 10, 2019 10:24 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

I still think my pre-Creature-returning-to-thread read of "nobody is bussing Creature if he's scum" is solid
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Post Post #1200 (isolation #79) » Tue Dec 10, 2019 10:33 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

In post 1197, Something_Smart wrote:
In post 1195, GuiltyLion wrote:I still think my pre-Creature-returning-to-thread read of "nobody is bussing Creature if he's scum" is solid
Well man, if that's true, he should be probably town, right?

How often does an L-1 wagon rise that quickly with scum avoiding it?
nah not really? I gave a bunch of candidates for partners with Creature who aren't on this wagon. Menalque being the spicy one, DogWatch, Pretentious, texcat if the Creature townread winds up more WIFOM than TMI, etc.

I also just generally try to avoid reasoning about a
wagonee's
alignment based on wagon speed. I have yet to see it generate reliable results. and I don't think this wagon was especially fast. I just think none of the votes look like a bus in terms of timing, trajectory, or presentation.
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Post Post #1207 (isolation #80) » Tue Dec 10, 2019 10:43 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

and also to reiterate in case y'all missed it in game #1 there's little to no evidence that Creature thought AF was "obvious" town. "Town" sure, but in his last post sequence he went from saying one post was fake to another being "probably" genuine. I'd say Creature is worth lynching today for that alone, tbh, it doesn't feel genuine.
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Post Post #1211 (isolation #81) » Tue Dec 10, 2019 12:12 pm

Post by GuiltyLion »

In post 1123, Creature wrote:He has been my pet scumread the entire game

I never actually townread him although he's quite obvious as town

Whenever I saw him posting it seemed to scream scum

Now his vote on me just seals it

He's just scum
In post 1124, Creature wrote:The tell is pretty obvious:

If it's a player I can immediately tell it's town and I can't tell it's town this game in any way, it means it's just scum
--------------
In post 1166, GuiltyLion wrote: I also didn't find evidence that you especially obvtownread him in that game - you didn't push him or scumread him, but you did call one of his posts fake and the closest you gave to a townread was saying another post was "probably" genuine.
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Post Post #1230 (isolation #82) » Tue Dec 10, 2019 3:21 pm

Post by GuiltyLion »

In post 906, Pretentious wrote:
In post 901, Salamence20 wrote:There seems to be some loud voices determined to not see Creature voted...
If creature were scum, he’d have been spamming the thread by now.

He’s town who doesn’t care.

He’ll probably spam the thread after it looks like he should care again.
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Post Post #1232 (isolation #83) » Tue Dec 10, 2019 3:33 pm

Post by GuiltyLion »

In post 1231, alimdia wrote:What changed from:
In post 797, GuiltyLion wrote:
In post 735, alimdia wrote:Please, people stop saying 'if I was scum I would do this. I didn't therefore I am town'.... Also SS's argument is shit btw, but lets not get into that again...
Finally... your spot , the counter wagon spot, what are you thinking of the people on it now? after this...

VOTE: GuilityLion

I am slightly skeptical though, because DW and texcat are both on this wagon.
like I want everyone who was suspicious of my Amrun vote (DogWatch, AaronFrost, tex, etc) as "likely scum on the Amrun wagon" to just... look at this. Just look at it. Assume that I'm town for a second and read this and tell me what you think.
to this:
In post 958, GuiltyLion wrote:at the risk of sounding crazy I'm rereading and starting to have doubts about my alimdia scumread
Is it because you have been on 2 wagons, so saying that I'm still a stronger scum read is no longer holding merit?

Also, I dont think you responded to my latest posts.

Depending on what you say I might reconsider your wagon.
I don't understand your 2 wagons comment.

I dunno what changed specifically, I just reread you in ISO to get a sense of where the entirety of your trajectory/head was at and it suddenly made more sense to me as a town-ISO - I still dislike your push on Smart but I got the sense some of the things pinging me were more playstyle/philosophy clash than indicative of you playing to scum agenda. Like at first I thought you voting me while openly doubt-casting my wagon wrt to DW and texcat was transparently scummy, but then I challenged myself on that and figured it was almost 'too scum to be scum' because you'd have to be real brave to do that knowing that I'm a mislynch. And I agree with the DW/texcat reads so that's an opportunity to connect there.

I didn't respond to your latest posts because they're not that interesting for me to respond to? I still don't actively recall you giving any sort of substantive thought on Amrun or the votes on her - and the posts you linked are a lol-defense to that, you saying "I'm too busy to give thoughts on this right now" is not an adequate rebuttal to "alimdia didn't give thoughts on this" - but the way you're kinda stubbornly insisting that it is makes me think townie as well because scum are usually more self-conscious than that. And it's a stale point anyway, your vote sticking on me and asking people to vote me instead of Creature is saying enough to me right now about your view on the game state.
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Post Post #1233 (isolation #84) » Tue Dec 10, 2019 3:43 pm

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I guess the best way to summarize my flip flop actually is just that I don't think all of the people still voting me are scum and you look a lot better than DW/tex
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Post Post #1256 (isolation #85) » Tue Dec 10, 2019 8:41 pm

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I can't fathom how no lynching would be better than lynching Creature idc how strong anybody's townread is. like even if he's town and you're scum (general you, not speaking to Ico or anybody else specifically here rn) nobody's gonna scumread you for voting him at this point, let's just make sure we have a flip
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Post Post #1259 (isolation #86) » Tue Dec 10, 2019 8:50 pm

Post by GuiltyLion »

In post 1249, Pretentious wrote:I disagree there’s no signs of him being lynched. Scum are probably purposefully waiting off the wagon. DDL fits that bill.

Scum don’t pile up on wagons when it’s stalled. It’s stalled because scum are being inactive about his wagon. If he was scum there would e more friction around his wagon rather than just the stagnant. Scum are content with how the game is going right now. Town on a deadline are generally likely to just go along with it, and scum could stay off the vote count for wagonomic purposes. It’s easiest to do that early game, and is a play scum can make.
this is yuck

if Creature is town why does scum!DDL vote him then vote hop off at deadline? Like I guess maybe you could say DDL is trying to get a no lynch to push Creature again tomorrow but I still think good odds enough people get their heads on straight and we lynch Creature anyway

scum definitely don't seem to want to vote Creature but what's missing in the second paragraph is why that makes Creature town?? Like if "scum are content" with Creature mislynch then either they're already voting Creature (in which case townies off-wagon should be deadline compromising) or they don't think they'll get scumread for
not
voting Creature (in which case this wagon is town driven but stalled??) but how often do you really see a wagon on an ISO like Creature's this game get stuck for a solid 2 days before deadline? Regardless of Creature's alignment I think scum got caught off the wagon and now don't know how to jump on it gracefully (pause here to note that I didn't find DogWatch's hop on particularly graceful), probably mixed with some townies in {Smart, Ico, tex, Menalque, alimdia} who are either not here or just not voting Creature for whatever reason.

this post would actually look better on a Creature scumflip cause I don't think I believe you try to save a buddy so half-assedly like this at the last minute, but if Creature flips town this reeks of scum who knows he's a mislynch trying to avoid the wagon for bs reasons. but idk even that's bad play, so maybe Pretentious is just town?? it's a bad post and potentially scummy, that's where I'm landing with this.
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Post Post #1260 (isolation #87) » Tue Dec 10, 2019 9:06 pm

Post by GuiltyLion »

In post 1259, GuiltyLion wrote:Like I guess maybe you could say DDL is trying to get a no lynch to push Creature again tomorrow but I still think good odds enough people get their heads on straight and we lynch Creature anyway
and this doesn't even really make sense either because DDL expressed a townread on Creature multiple times throughout so like... why does scum!DDL vote him at all then if his plan was to just not get involved with this wagon?
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Post Post #1409 (isolation #88) » Fri Dec 13, 2019 5:43 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

VOTE: DogWatch

The transition to the Creature vote felt forced to me, like scum finally deciding to hop onto a mislynch
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Post Post #1411 (isolation #89) » Fri Dec 13, 2019 5:57 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

That's my point though, you claimed to be scumreading him the whole game yet were bizarrely reluctant to actually join his wagon once it took off
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Post Post #1412 (isolation #90) » Fri Dec 13, 2019 5:58 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

In post 960, Salamence20 wrote:
In post 799, DogWatch wrote:My problem right now is that my two top scum reads don't make much sense together. GL and Creature BOTH being scum seems really unlikely considering how fast they jumped the amrun wagon one after the other, and I know they're both better players than to do something that sloppy and obvious if the efforts were scum-coordinated.
SCUM with Creature. Maybe scum regardless.

I doubt you have little reason to not be voting creature right now since its the stronger read. And I doubt there has been anything that would make GL worse than creature.
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Post Post #1416 (isolation #91) » Fri Dec 13, 2019 6:25 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

In post 1413, DogWatch wrote:I explained my hesitancy to vote him at the time, and I also explained why I eventually moved from you to him, so I don't see why you find anything about it 'forced.'
This is like, my entire point though. You made very sure to explain to us throughout that you were scumreading Creature. Then when a wagon started on him, you made very sure to explain to us that you were not sure what to do. Then when you voted him, you made very sure to tell us why you were finally voting him. It reads like a mechanical and crafted/calculated scum trajectory, not organic town doing shit to try to generate information.
In post 1414, DogWatch wrote:I also think it's a pretty comical accusation from someone who jumped on the amrun wagon the way you did.
"comical", why use that word instead of something that might describe my alignment? You're more focused on discrediting the content of what I'm saying than evaluating me. And are we really still talking about that damn amrun vote when there's been probably 1000 posts since then?
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Post Post #1417 (isolation #92) » Fri Dec 13, 2019 6:29 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

it's also just kinda ridiculous to compare the two. My Amrun vote received flack because it was barely explained and I spent most of my time calling out another player. I was accused of opportunistically sheeping.

Here, I am accusing you of having
all the reasons in the world
to vote Creature, yet it still took you a long time to do it and you seemed very self-conscious about what might happen when you do.

It's two different behaviors and yours is the more scum-indicative one
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Post Post #1420 (isolation #93) » Fri Dec 13, 2019 6:41 am

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In post 1419, DogWatch wrote:Did you not have very similar situation with alimdia when you voted amrun? I don't think these circumstances are as different as you think.
It would have been similar if
- I stated I was scumreading alimdia throughout the game, similar to how I had (I later changed my mind but that's kinda irrelevant to this)
- Menalque or some other person started an alimdia wagon and it got 3-4 votes
- I didn't vote alimdia and made a post declaring how unsure I was about moving my vote, despite the fact that I had proclaimed a strong scumread on him earlier in the game
- I waited until basically a day before deadline before finally voting alimdia
- Alimdia flipped town
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Post Post #1421 (isolation #94) » Fri Dec 13, 2019 6:44 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

like I would have less of a problem with you if you had hopped on Creature immediately. Are you understanding that?
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Post Post #1424 (isolation #95) » Fri Dec 13, 2019 6:47 am

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how about we talk about who you think might be scum on the Creature wagon if it's not you? I think at least one scum definitely voted him at some point, more likely towards the end of the day, and I'm curious who you think that would be if it's not you
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Post Post #1449 (isolation #96) » Fri Dec 13, 2019 1:33 pm

Post by GuiltyLion »

I need to sit with this game for a bit, I need to reread ISOs and a lot of D1 with the Creature/Pretentious flips in mind, and frankly that's not gonna happen for the rest of today so expect real stuff from me tomorrow

can more people engage with my DogWatch reasoning and her thoughts in and ? idk if scum would suggest that no scum were on the Creature wagon, that's a little out of left field
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Post Post #1450 (isolation #97) » Fri Dec 13, 2019 1:41 pm

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Oh one other thing I wanna say though, part of my reason for scumreading Amrun initially that I couldnt mention was her early game felt very different to me than her play in the High Noon micro game we just finished where I was townreading her, but she flipped scum in that game so ?? I think that makes her more likely town in this game lol
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Post Post #1535 (isolation #98) » Sun Dec 15, 2019 8:58 pm

Post by GuiltyLion »

Hi sorry I actually had a nutso weekend, holiday parties and stuffs, so I didn't read yet. I'm in bed now and falling asleep soon but I'll try to read up and I'll be around to play tomorrow cause work should be really light this week :]
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Post Post #1551 (isolation #99) » Mon Dec 16, 2019 9:29 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

In post 1458, alimdia wrote:
In post 1450, GuiltyLion wrote:Oh one other thing I wanna say though, part of my reason for scumreading Amrun initially that I couldnt mention was her early game felt very different to me than her play in the High Noon micro game we just finished where I was townreading her, but she flipped scum in that game so ?? I think that makes her more likely town in this game lol
This is why meta sucks... And god if people use 2nd hand meta..

@GL, thoughts on DW's post 1418?
Love it when 2 SRs VS each other
Eh, I don't like that she says there's nothing alignment indicative in me voting her, but I'm not really sure that's something scum would say. Overall she seems to be playing very safe/cautious so far this game which makes me generally lean scum but I wouldn't be shocked to see her flip town. She's one of the slots I want to resolve and feel more decided on today but I think it might be useful to see her interact outside of me at this point

What are your thoughts on ?
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Post Post #1552 (isolation #100) » Mon Dec 16, 2019 9:50 am

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In post 1466, Something_Smart wrote:
In post 1450, GuiltyLion wrote:Oh one other thing I wanna say though, part of my reason for scumreading Amrun initially that I couldnt mention was her early game felt very different to me than her play in the High Noon micro game we just finished where I was townreading her, but she flipped scum in that game so ?? I think that makes her more likely town in this game lol
Different how?
It's a little hard to explain since I was playing both games simultaneously and generally picking up on ~vibes~ more than anything super tangible, but I guess in High Noon we were mind-melding on a lot of points and she felt a lot more decisive and proactive about calling out bad pushes and defending people getting unfairly shaded - and I agreed with all her takes. Here she seemed to be sitting back more and asking shallow questions and not following up on them as much. Now I don't think any of the behavior in either game was inherently alignment indicative (clearly, since I misread her in High Noon), but I did feel they were different in how she came across and since I was town reading her in High Noon I felt it might be scum indicative here.
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Post Post #1553 (isolation #101) » Mon Dec 16, 2019 10:00 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

quick hot takes:
1) I like Menalque's argument about lynching off wagon, I doubt all three scum were on the wagon.
1a) however what if Menalque is scum I'm not sold on him being town yet
2) DoLittle's reads aren't bad
3) I don't love Datisi's Aaron push, in fact I kinda hate it

I'm about here I think:
Town club: {alimdia, Aaron, Iconeum, Smart}
conditional members: {Menalque, Amrun}
lynchpool?: {DoLittle, texcat, Datisi, DogWatch}

however I don't think it's likely that all three scum are in that lynchpool block either so there are some knots in my game state view I need to work out
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Post Post #1554 (isolation #102) » Mon Dec 16, 2019 10:14 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

In post 1462, Datisi wrote:
In post 1454, AaronFrost wrote:
In post 1402, Datisi wrote:Hah, it actually read to me as a fake ~townslip~
What would I have to gain by faking a townslip? I wouldn't even consider that a townslip either.
The reaction in . You'd have ez TR's to gain. And coming in the day wondering if the kill was made by scum or Town (when it's much more likely both were made by scum) sounds like a ~townslip~ to me.

Plus, that whole part about "figuring out if Pret's been shot by scum or Town" and listing 7 people he was suspecting feels a bit like both fake busywork and insincere, since one of Creature's last pushes was you.
In post 1484, Datisi wrote:
In post 1465, AaronFrost wrote:
In post 1462, Datisi wrote:
In post 1454, AaronFrost wrote:
In post 1402, Datisi wrote:Hah, it actually read to me as a fake ~townslip~
What would I have to gain by faking a townslip? I wouldn't even consider that a townslip either.
The reaction in . You'd have ez TR's to gain. And coming in the day wondering if the kill was made by scum or Town (when it's much more likely both were made by scum) sounds like a ~townslip~ to me.

Plus, that whole part about "figuring out if Pret's been shot by scum or Town" and listing 7 people he was suspecting feels a bit like both fake busywork and insincere, since one of Creature's last pushes was you.
So because Creature was scumreading me that means everything I do is fake and insincere?
That logic might hold up if Creature was still in the game, but he's not. And even if he was, his read on me wouldn't effect how I play the game.
I never said that. What I was referring to (and which struck me as odd) is that you listed out all the names Pret gave out as possible scumbuddies of mine. I think Town would be more likely to just name Pret's strongest SR (me) then to list a bunch of names out. Why did you a bit after listing them conclude that both kills were probably made by scum?

And how would that logic be still holding up if Creature were alive?
these posts in particular feel disingenuous to me
1) the reasoning is driven by using a "Aaron = scum" assumption and then arguing from there. It's not a surefire tell here because the first post is directly responding to a "why would this make sense if I were scum" question, but it still pings me as reachy because I feel like Datisi should be constantly evaluating against a simpler explanation where Aaron is just town, and it feels to me like she's not in order to make this push
2) the second post strikes me as trying to force a "gotcha" than something super indicative. Overall I don't see Aaron's and as notably scummy nor worth pushing on to this degree.
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Post Post #1557 (isolation #103) » Mon Dec 16, 2019 11:36 am

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y'all nonvoters need to vote, there's nothing forcing anybody to do anything right now
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Post Post #1560 (isolation #104) » Mon Dec 16, 2019 4:32 pm

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There's a difference between "being in agreement with my reads" vs "making sense from a town!you perspective", main thing I keyed in on was mutual townreads on Ico and Alimdia as I think those are good reads and less likely to come from scum here as those two also feel like people that could get ran up today / have had suspicion from others on them. Also not just shoving texcat into a scumread pile I think is townie as well.

Main thing I disagree on is Aaron scumread but other people are chasing that too so I wonder if it's just something I'm missing? He really doesn't feel all that scummy to me
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Post Post #1563 (isolation #105) » Mon Dec 16, 2019 4:51 pm

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It's not just those two posts but kinda the larger context of Pretentious getting killed while scumreading you + you pushing Aaron as soon as he called that out (and pushing Aaron in general) + me re-evaluating where scum might be on the Creature wagon. Like I feel like if we're both town, you should be with me on Dogwatch looking pretty bad?

The lynchpool is more kinda "meh I think scum exist somewhere in here" than any super strong scumreads which is why I'm a little lost at the moment

However I dooo kinda get what you were suggesting with DDL/Menalque potentially being a SvS vibe so I want to see where that goes once Menalque efforts more on d2. Like he's claimed a 100% ability to read you so if he townreads you I'd sheep that for today but I feel if he's scum and you're not you all are gonna have to have a go at it at some point if you're starting to suspect him
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Post Post #1596 (isolation #106) » Tue Dec 17, 2019 6:23 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

DoLittle did you read/look at Micro High Noon that just finished that I referenced the other day? here's a link. I think Amrun played a stronger "town" game there than she did here, so knowing that she's capable of emulating assertive townplay as scum, I don't think it tracks to say she's scum because she's unable to emulate good townplay here.
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Post Post #1597 (isolation #107) » Tue Dec 17, 2019 6:30 am

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if we want to lynch off wagon then texcat is my current choice. I agree with Amrun's assessment in

however I think one thing that's bothering me about my reads right now is most of my scumreads are the ones who aren't doing too much, especially so far on D2, like DogWatch and texcat are both basically non-entities. I don't wanna just assume that scum are not participating, at the same time neither slot is really giving anything substantial to work with so I don't have any good reason personally not to lynch them.
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Post Post #1599 (isolation #108) » Tue Dec 17, 2019 6:53 am

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I'd say lurky slots have slightly higher odds of scum than base rate so I don't think that's inherently wrong just because we got a bad lynch yesterday. When somebody has fewer posts than the mod halfway through D2 there's zero reason to townread that slot

also, what's your point with that comment? I literally just acknowledged in that I myself am frustrated that I don't have any really good feeling scumreads and calling out that two of my PoE suspects are basically not playing today, why do you then feel compelled to say you "really don't like" that?
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Post Post #1600 (isolation #109) » Tue Dec 17, 2019 6:54 am

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like if you're going to wind up trying to get me to vote DDL instead of texcat then be explicit about it instead of throwing vague shade
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Post Post #1601 (isolation #110) » Tue Dec 17, 2019 7:08 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

In post 1598, Menalque wrote:I really don’t like that we went for a lucky slot yesterday and it flipped town and despite that you wanna follow the exact same strategy again today @GL
in fact

this is one of my weird kinda reachy linguistic/semantic thoughts that people usually disagree with but I find it odd you say "we" went for a lurky slot yesterday when you were fighting against the Creature wagon constantly and strongly distanced yourself from that lynch. When I'm town and people lynch against my wishes, I don't tend to think that "we" did that, my thought is "you all" did that. I feel if you're game-solving and invested in the outcome of each lynch, you'd be less likely to say that the Creature slot was one that "we" went for when you were specifically championing against that lynch and didn't push for it.

but it might be just a meaningless thing in that you're simply describing the entire game as "we" and weren't thinking about ownership of lynches, so I'm mostly posting this because I want to save/remember it in my ISO for postgame to see if it indicated scum alignment, more interested in your response to
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Post Post #1607 (isolation #111) » Tue Dec 17, 2019 1:11 pm

Post by GuiltyLion »

bruh if you really think this is my scum game after you just played with scum me in Nomination mafia then you're probably scum Menalque

also are we not lynching off the wagon now?
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Post Post #1611 (isolation #112) » Tue Dec 17, 2019 2:41 pm

Post by GuiltyLion »

In post 1608, Menalque wrote:your reaction was massively over defensive and I don’t really see why town!you would be worried about it
I'm worried about it because I'm trying to sort you and scum reading me as opposed to contributing anything else is pretty bad from you
In post 1608, Menalque wrote:You seem off as well in that you’re choosing to throw quite subtle shade at me instead of trying to work with me
If I may - "you started it!". What is if not "subtle shade", obviously I'm going to react to that. I've pitched a lot of thoughts on town!Aaron, town!Amrun, scum!Dog, scum!tex, ??!Datisi, and you respond to none of those and instead jump in with a shallow one liner about how you don't like my pushing. That's not me choosing not to work with you.
In post 1608, Menalque wrote:You’re making a really weird semantics point while simultaneously saying that it’s not so much to influence the game as it is for you to look back at later despite that it’s obviously influencing the game by throwing shade at my slot
I mean you're welcome to respond to it, if you feel it's an unfair point. I also pretty explicitly called you out with my which is my more immediate problem with your post.
In post 1608, Menalque wrote:Your immediate reaction to being voted is also really defensive “how could you possibly be scum reading me” and again trying to throw shade at me which isn’t what I think you do with someone who I’m pretty sure you were townreading before
The only people I'm solidly townreading are Ico, Aaron, alimdia, Smart, and at this point Amrun. I said that in my reads post. Everyone else I'm still trying to figure out, and you randomly one-liner shading me after doing nothing of consequence so far other than to argue to lynch off-wagon (but not WHO to Lynch off wagon) is hella bad and immediately kills any semblance of a townread on you. Contrast with how Datisi engaged with me.
In post 1608, Menalque wrote:But mostly you’re trying to direct lynches onto the unproductive slots while trying to keep your distance from it by talking about how “I personally don’t have any good reason not to lynch them” which is super awkward phrasing that I don’t think is likely to come from town who I think would just say “I wanna lynch tex/DW for being lurksacks” rather than feeling such a need to justify it
I mean I'd like to have
good
reasons to lynch people besides from them just being lynchsacks. Why is that unlikely to come from town? I also think I was pretty clear that I was not distancing myself from tex or Dogwatch throughout today, this feels really disingenuous to condense everything I've said about either slot to that one line. I entered the day with a ton of points on Dogwatch that you completely ignored.
In post 1608, Menalque wrote:It would also make sense from a gamestate point of view in that scum have probably been relatively happy with things and letting the game tick over rather than highly contesting it which makes me think the most likely slots that looked like they were lynchable today were all town (DW, tex, maybe ddl)
I'm literally like the main person trying to do anything today. Maybe Amrun too. You can't possibly honestly think that
I am
the one, of all players, who is coasting here.
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Post Post #1612 (isolation #113) » Tue Dec 17, 2019 2:43 pm

Post by GuiltyLion »

In post 1610, Menalque wrote:Oh also makes sense with why I’m not dead after N1 bc I was TRing you

Although tbf i need to double check what sally thought too
frankly you had no influence in the town EOD1 and I don't think scum feel threatened by you, especially if I'm your best scumread after 1600 posts.
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Post Post #1614 (isolation #114) » Tue Dec 17, 2019 2:47 pm

Post by GuiltyLion »

In post 1597, GuiltyLion wrote:if we want to lynch off wagon then texcat is my current choice. I agree with Amrun's assessment in 1589
like this is me literally trying to work with you, and instead you shade me, and then say
I'm
the one not working with you?
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Post Post #1617 (isolation #115) » Tue Dec 17, 2019 2:51 pm

Post by GuiltyLion »

like, I actually think my point about Menal just seeing me as scum in Nomination Mafia is really strong here. I'm not over defensive as scum, I worry so much about being perceived as over-defensive that instead I act super chill and cool with my own lynch all the time. I was playing Nomination accounting for my own Lynch to contribute to POE solves.

Whereas as town I'm far more picky about people scumreading/voting me and I dive headfirst into battles all the time, which I avoided as much as possible in Nomination, other than 1v1ing with pisskop a little bit. Me reacting to being shaded in a one-liner is not scum!indicative from me at all, especially given Menal's direct and immediate experience with how I play as both scum and town.
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Post Post #1624 (isolation #116) » Tue Dec 17, 2019 3:00 pm

Post by GuiltyLion »

Smart can also vouch from Team Mafia (probably my most tryhard scum game in the past year or so) that when I am heavily considered to be likely scum by town I still don't get defensive the way I do when I'm pushed or shaded as town. It's actually probably a flaw in my scum game that I need to address next time I roll scum tbh
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Post Post #1631 (isolation #117) » Tue Dec 17, 2019 3:20 pm

Post by GuiltyLion »

In post 1626, Menalque wrote: You’ve literally been shading me since here and I’m p sure I remember you shading me D1 as well I’ll try to go find it tomorrow

And then when I do actually try to work with you (following up on dogwstch after you asked people to) you ignore it and then get overly defensive when I push you for going after a lurker lynch AGAIN
alright I'll grant that first post was kinda shade-y, I was mostly thinking I didn't know if I could trust you pushing anyone off-wagon solely on the basis of them being off-wagon since you were
also
off-wagon and best odds of a deep wolf of the people off.

Let's try this then: who do you actually want to Lynch of the off-wagon pool? Do you really think you not dying means DDL is town? I missed if you ever responded to Datisi's point about how Pretentious was 50% of that DDL wagon and died.

I also have more reasons to push Dogwatch than just lurking - namely her entire progression on me/Creature wagons. That's not a lurker Lynch, that's a "you acted really weird around your Creature scumread" Lynch. Like the main reason I haven't switched to texcat is because I feel texcat's lack of content/posting means higher odds of being wrong about something indicative in their ISO.
In post 1627, Menalque wrote:And frankly, I don’t think you have actually done that much today because you’ve been so focussed on DW

If we lynch DW and she flips scum then okay you’re probably town but if not then you’re pushing 2 lurker lynches in a row wtf am I supposed to think of that
I've commented on pretty much every relevant thread of D2 and interacted with a whoooole lotta slots outside of DW. I've been asking people to vote and do things to give me more to engage with. I think it's almost objective that I've done more today than 50% of the player base and it's almost absurd to me that you could read everything since D2 start and think I'm most likely scum coasting in this game state. This whole exchange started when I was expressing dissatisfaction with my reads and then you also expressed dissatisfaction with my reads, like that should signal to you that I am town if I have the same frustrations with my reads that you do??
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Post Post #1632 (isolation #118) » Tue Dec 17, 2019 3:21 pm

Post by GuiltyLion »

In post 1630, Menalque wrote:
In post 1617, GuiltyLion wrote:like, I actually think my point about Menal just seeing me as scum in Nomination Mafia is really strong here. I'm not over defensive as scum, I worry so much about being perceived as over-defensive that instead I act super chill and cool with my own lynch all the time. I was playing Nomination accounting for my own Lynch to contribute to POE solves.

Whereas as town I'm far more picky about people scumreading/voting me and I dive headfirst into battles all the time, which I avoided as much as possible in Nomination, other than 1v1ing with pisskop a little bit. Me reacting to being shaded in a one-liner is not scum!indicative from me at all, especially given Menal's direct and immediate experience with how I play as both scum and town.
And I mean again, very explicitly:

You’re aware of your scum meta which means you can manipulate it

You just lost a game playing to that scum meta

I just played a game with you where you were in that scum meta

What possible incentive is there for you to not intentionally manipulate your meta this game as scum?
which is more likely though:
1) that I'm town and being defensive because that's how I play as town
2) I'm scum with a history of trying not to be defensive, and rolled scum again in this particular game, and decided to instead act as defensive as I can just so I can make this exact point when you specifically call me out on it?

use the razor, man.
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Post Post #1633 (isolation #119) » Tue Dec 17, 2019 3:24 pm

Post by GuiltyLion »

also I've just straight up put in far more content here, especially at end of day 1, and already exceeded my post count from Nomination which was almost triple the length of this game. I hate to metaclear myself this way because it makes all my future scum games harder but like based on pure activity and engagement alone you should see a marked difference in my style here
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Post Post #1637 (isolation #120) » Tue Dec 17, 2019 3:30 pm

Post by GuiltyLion »

alright I gotta run for now but I have been considering another go at the DDL wagon because I haven't liked his D2 play at all - most recently the way he asked me about my comment on his reads while also claiming to townread me was kinda jank - and I think regardless of your alignment he would make sense as scum, so maybe we can come together on that one, but I'll be out for the rest of today most likely so gonna leave it at that for now, in any case I appreciate you engaging with me more directly as it feels productive
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Post Post #1741 (isolation #121) » Wed Dec 18, 2019 12:09 pm

Post by GuiltyLion »

UNVOTE:
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Post Post #1742 (isolation #122) » Wed Dec 18, 2019 12:28 pm

Post by GuiltyLion »

In post 1678, DrDolittle wrote:
In post 1637, GuiltyLion wrote:alright I gotta run for now but I have been considering another go at the DDL wagon because I haven't liked his D2 play at all - most recently the way he asked me about my comment on his reads while also claiming to townread me was kinda jank - and I think regardless of your alignment he would make sense as scum, so maybe we can come together on that one, but I'll be out for the rest of today most likely so gonna leave it at that for now, in any case I appreciate you engaging with me more directly as it feels productive

So
I shouldnt call you out for saying I have good reads when they are orthogonal to yours

I am also amazed that you think my day 1 play is stronger when I did nothing.

This whole progression makes 0 sense
In post 1696, Datisi wrote:
In post 1637, GuiltyLion wrote:alright I gotta run for now but I have been considering another go at the DDL wagon because I haven't liked his D2 play at all -
most recently the way he asked me about my comment on his reads while also claiming to townread me was kinda jank
GL what is exactly the issue here?
grouping these together as they're both on the same topic

DDL's question to me felt a lazy/convenient and detached from a logical trajectory, the kind of busywork question that scum asks to look like they're participating/solving. Earlier he said he was townreading me, but then asked me the question in this way:
In post 1558, DrDolittle wrote:GL is my reads are [not*] poor why does it intersect with yours so little
this is phrased kinda aggressively, implying that there's potentially some issue with me saying his reads "aren't bad" (btw DDL "aren't bad" is not the same as "good") despite us having different reads. Which he then confirmed it was a "call out" in

I think when I'm townreading someone and they say they can see where my reads are coming from but they have some disagreements, that's usually an invitation to try to find common ground or figure out which non-intersecting scumreads are likely to be poorly justified. I even tried to invite this dialogue in . Instead the way he jumps to feeling like he needs to call
me
out rather than discuss the disagreements in the reads themselves felt like a lazy angle to take and made more to generate noise than to generate productive conversation.

Or put most simply I don't understand why town in that position (townreading someone with different reads) would be hostile/suspicious rather than collaborative.
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Post Post #1743 (isolation #123) » Wed Dec 18, 2019 12:31 pm

Post by GuiltyLion »

In post 1709, Datisi wrote:GL, you've mentioned High Noon a couple of times wrt reading Amrun. Does my play from that game influence your read in any way?
it didn't originally because I didn't know you were the other half of the hydra until post game, so I didn't have any kind of simultaneous-game playing feels as I did with Amrun. I should probably reread it with that in mind I guess, but haven't done so.
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Post Post #1746 (isolation #124) » Wed Dec 18, 2019 12:44 pm

Post by GuiltyLion »

In post 1724, DogWatch wrote:
In post 1637, GuiltyLion wrote:and I think regardless of your alignment he would make sense as scum
How does DDL make sense as scum if menal is scum? That would be some pretty hard bussing.
so this is all under the assumption that it is a DDL/Menalque team, it's not meant to be an argument for why that team is likely, just an argument for why it's not impossible from them:

1) First, as to why he'd go hard on pushing him - I think Menalque as a player tries to take a very vocal town-leader kind of role, which means he has to emulate this as scum. As town Menalque is active and demanding about getting lynches he wants, and that's something he would probably echo in his scumplay as well. So I think if he decided to "scumread" a buddy, he can't exactly back down or do it tentatively, or else that would make it a super obvious associative once he got flipped.

2) But also, how hard did Menalque
actually
push DDL? He gave a bunch of reasons for suspecting Amrun and hounded other players to vote her, but for DDL he basically just gave an argument of "he's posting but not doing anything". Which is shaky because DDL was in fact doing
some
stuff and other players were doing less, so naturally people are going to resist that line of thinking. And he kept promising a more convincing case later that never materialized. He also waited until people were more set in stone on who they wanted to lynch - it's hard to get 8 people to vote the same wagon in mafia, it's not something you can expect to materialize out of nowhere at deadline. So I would agree it was hard distancing but I don't believe Menalque really played in a way that was likely to get DDL actually lynched on D1, and he's dropped that effort significantly on D2.

3) Another point, if he's scum he knows he won't get NK'd by scum and so if he's leading the game and widely townread he's going to need excuses for why he doesn't die. He's already been commenting/speculating about not being N1'd today. And if he doesn't die and he's championing a lot of mislynches, that's going to eventually look poorly on him - especially since he's also prideful about being good at this game. Therefore it's in his interests to have a foundation laid down for plausible scumreads on a scum buddy and eventually getting rid of bussable partners at some point when it becomes necessary, and DDL is definitely a bussable partner given how he's played this game so far.
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Post Post #1747 (isolation #125) » Wed Dec 18, 2019 12:47 pm

Post by GuiltyLion »

what I also think is weird having reflected on it more is DDL townreading Menalque, like, this dude was calling you scum all D1 and trying to get you lynched and you aren't suspicious of him in the slightest? really? I suggest I might switch to DDL and he decides to call me out while making no mention of Menalque?
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Post Post #1748 (isolation #126) » Wed Dec 18, 2019 12:51 pm

Post by GuiltyLion »

also these last few pages basically entirely flipped my read on DogWatch, townreading her now
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Post Post #1750 (isolation #127) » Wed Dec 18, 2019 1:13 pm

Post by GuiltyLion »

first, she didn't seem defensive/apologetic at all on entry after being away for so long, I generally think scum would be more self-conscious about that.
In post 1713, DogWatch wrote:VOTE: menal
your ddl push is gross and your GL push is gross
she's the leading wagon and had a lot of scrutiny/suspicion, decides to go for somebody who is not wagoned at all right now and surely an uphill battle for her? don't see a scum agenda to this vote
In post 1716, DogWatch wrote:
In post 1715, Datisi wrote:I don't know, the way he's speaking sorta, the TR on Amrun was weird, the reasoning feels weird, and the way he kept talking about PoE just reminds me of stuff scum!me did in that game

That said... I would really like to hear your answer to
Not much to say, the amrun wagon's momentum felt more scum-driven to me in retrospect is the point i was trying to make, the first part is just me misremembering who was on it. So it's unlikely scum wasn't on the creature wagon.
I think this response reads honest tonally. I had also thought the original comment about one wagon being scum driven and the other not felt artificial/fake, but she makes no effort to defend it here but also doesn't go out of her way to brush it off.
In post 1727, DogWatch wrote:
In post 1726, Datisi wrote:DW, how caught up are you? I was the first to spit out the DDL/Mena tinfoil theory before that
ugh I'm skipping around a lot honestly, so not great. kinda half-coherent in a hospital bed right now.
anyway, can you link me to your ddl/menal stuff?
skipping around is town-indicative to me, scum need to be more aware of the events/threads of the game so they can decide how they want to handle the current game state, whereas town just has a lot of stuff they need to read at some point but are more free to post their thoughts wherever they currently stand
In post 1733, DogWatch wrote:Doing an ISO on DDL... his entire Amrun tunnel is shallow as hell tbh
timing of this progression feels genuine - initially has DDL as town in her first readspost, sees other people are suspecting him, decides to ISO and now finds issues with his content. I think if she were scum, she would have read up more on the thread first and decided how to play around DDL, then start posting and following a trajectory from there, instead of clearly playing in a more reactive style to what's been brought up/discussed as she's catching up. If she's faking this change of opinion on DDL that's nuanced scum play.
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Post Post #1752 (isolation #128) » Wed Dec 18, 2019 1:23 pm

Post by GuiltyLion »

VOTE: DDL
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Post Post #1769 (isolation #129) » Wed Dec 18, 2019 2:23 pm

Post by GuiltyLion »

In post 1765, Gamma Emerald wrote:
In post 1763, Amrun wrote:
In post 1756, Gamma Emerald wrote:For being a vague slot sure seems people are okay with me staying that way

Not at all. But I think it’s fair to let you catch up.
It’s very likely not going to happen all that quickly, specifically today. And I would expect people to be responding to what I’m saying actively rather than wait until I finish or whatever.
frankly I don't see a point to that unless you make your posts more readable (explicitly call out what you want responses to without being hidden in a spoiler tag) and you really try to condense to only asking questions/commenting to things that are significantly important to helping you actively read players currently. I don't want to spend time opening 60 pages worth of spoiler tags and wading through comments on random posts that don't pertain to me just to find one or two things that's still meaningful at the present and addressed to me that I need to respond to. I'd rather you jump into the fray and engage now and then backfill stuff from D1 that you feel needs to support your reads on things.
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Post Post #1770 (isolation #130) » Wed Dec 18, 2019 2:25 pm

Post by GuiltyLion »

In post 1767, Menalque wrote:if you think that scum is off wagon then can you just fucking lynch ddl with us so I can get the towncred I need to lead this game
hate to break it to you but a DDL scumflip is not how you're gonna get towncred from me
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Post Post #1843 (isolation #131) » Thu Dec 19, 2019 1:25 pm

Post by GuiltyLion »

I agree that scum!Mena and town!DDL isn't likely, part of why I'm comfortable with my vote on DDL
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Post Post #1932 (isolation #132) » Fri Dec 20, 2019 6:19 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

In post 1894, Menalque wrote:his disengagement here is enough that it's at least making me question my SR because idk if scum does this little to prevent their lynch/if his scum buddies would also be doing such little to prevent his lynch
why does town do this little to prevent their lynch? when I'm town and at L-1 I'm making gigantic wall posts of all my last reads and thoughts, both to try not to get lynched as one desperate last measure and to help town after my flip
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Post Post #1933 (isolation #133) » Fri Dec 20, 2019 6:22 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

In post 1928, Menalque wrote:we still have like 24hrs tho so there's no need to rush a lynch
sure, but we also need six votes to lynch
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Post Post #1934 (isolation #134) » Fri Dec 20, 2019 6:32 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

In post 1834, DrDolittle wrote:I think there is few scum on my wagon as they are content sitting back right now waiting out the deadline because there is no counterwagon threat.

on AF, I think this is maybe town?
In post 1779, AaronFrost wrote:
In post 1770, GuiltyLion wrote:
In post 1767, Menalque wrote:if you think that scum is off wagon then can you just fucking lynch ddl with us so I can get the towncred I need to lead this game
hate to break it to you but a DDL scumflip is not how you're gonna get towncred from me
Seconding this, a find it strange that he thinks that'll get him towncred. At the same time, I think Mena knows that a DDL townflip would look bad on him so I don't think Mena is scum pushing a mislynch on town!DDL

Hmm, Datisi might be right about her tinfoil theory
In post 1835, DrDolittle wrote:although ss and alimedia are afk so idk
In post 1845, DrDolittle wrote:Pls lynch amrun day 3 after 2 town flips calling for her head. That is all
These are DDL's last posts at L-2 and under serious possibility of lynch. hasn't posted yet since intent to hammer. you really think this is all a townie cares to say as they're about to be rung up?

Last game I played with DDL where he was town he was a D1 Lynch in a Micro. here's his ISO from that game. Notice how much more aggressive he is giving out last thoughts/reads, and in general throughout.

Plus this post is fun:

"
I am meek as hell when I play scum what are you talking about
. I literally said in my last scum game, gosh people have scum agendas and plans and I'm just barely able to stay alive.

I want an appology from you after this game when I flip town if you are town too. what you are doing to me this game is entirely in bad faith."

this isn't the same DDL from that game.
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Post Post #1947 (isolation #135) » Fri Dec 20, 2019 11:40 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

In post 1362, FakeGod wrote:Creature [8] - Salamence20, GuiltyLion, Datisi, Amrun, AaronFrost, Dogwatch, Iconeum, alimdia [LYNCH]
In post 1936, FakeGod wrote:DrDolittle [4] - Datisi, GuiltyLion, Dogwatch, Amrun
this is something to potentially look at tomorrow after a DDL flip, or we can speculate it about it now, but all four current DDL voters were on Creature EOD. Could be up to five if Aaron also jumps on as he indicated.

If DDL flips town it seems extremely unlikely that this group is all town, especially since DDL is/was a prime scum off-wagon candidate. However, if DDL is scum (and I think he is), I think this group is
potentially
all town - people genuinely trying to participate and solve the game - and so if there is scum on the Creature wagon, it'd have to be on the very back half in Ico/alimdia.

I'm still townreading Ico so I'm a bit thrown. I'd be interested to hear if anyone believes both DDL is scum and he's currently got a partner voting him right now.

p-edit: good timing, I'm here!
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Post Post #1948 (isolation #136) » Fri Dec 20, 2019 11:41 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

Menalque I find it kinda sketch you were sitting around to reply immediately but hadn't responded to any of the latest stuff
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Post Post #1951 (isolation #137) » Fri Dec 20, 2019 11:46 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

nah, I think that's the only game we've played together. I vaguely recall reading some other games with him in them but that was probably years ago and irrelevant
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Post Post #1954 (isolation #138) » Fri Dec 20, 2019 11:49 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

Menalque let's say you're town and DDL is scum, any guesses as to who are his partners?
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Post Post #1960 (isolation #139) » Fri Dec 20, 2019 11:54 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

idk I guess I think giving up is +town when it still feels like you're genuinely trying to help with where to look post-flip, but I feel DDL is just clamping up to not town-spew anybody by this point. he's saying "lynch Amrun" but not actually trying to convince anybody in particular to lynch Amrun. like just feels super scummy to me
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Post Post #1968 (isolation #140) » Fri Dec 20, 2019 12:01 pm

Post by GuiltyLion »

In post 1958, Menalque wrote:could be icon/alim/gemerald too but I'd lean most confident on AFF followed by SS
this isn't bad, I can see this assuming you're town. I was thinking I need to be re-evaluating in Ico/alim/Smart on a DDL scumflip. AFF is a maybe, I did get major early-game pings from him but I've thought his later play was townie and he felt like a potential mislynch for scum, as it stands I think I'd need some convincing there or see how the rest of my townreads are looking at him
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Post Post #1991 (isolation #141) » Fri Dec 20, 2019 12:24 pm

Post by GuiltyLion »

wait isn't Menalque saying they could be scum together tho, it's never scum!AF and town!DDL
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Post Post #2058 (isolation #142) » Sun Dec 22, 2019 7:23 pm

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It says N2 rose in the OP post too so I doubt it's a typo, and FakeGod doesn't seem like the kind of mod to make a silly mistake. Idk how that's possible?

Also I'm clearly getting taken for a ride this game :( I'm gonna have to reevaluate, I don't have any solid townreads anymore
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Post Post #2061 (isolation #143) » Sun Dec 22, 2019 7:31 pm

Post by GuiltyLion »

If I had to like take a stab at the gamestate I think I'm still townreading Datisi, Ico, and Amrun, but I don't feel great about it. My gut scumreads are Smart and Menalque but I don't feel great about that either. Gammas slot is bad and I still want to lynch it, but we just lynched two bad slots that flipped town, and I don't have a confident read on Dogwatch or Alimdia. I kinda want somebody else to try to take charge for a little bit because I think somewhere along the way I've been buddied and I don't see it.
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Post Post #2063 (isolation #144) » Sun Dec 22, 2019 7:41 pm

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The thing I guess I'm struggling with first and foremost is that VCA would strongly suggest a scum who was on both wagons in Datisi/Dogwatch/Amrun but I don't have good reasons to scumread any of them, and I'm not even especially bad gutfeels about them. Datisi would be a scumread out of paranoia and Menalque already said she's town. Only way I'd really buy into that is a Menalque/Datisi team, I guess. Amrun I could maybe reevaluate but I did feel her d1 play was substantially different than her scum play in high noon. Dogwatch pinged me a bunch on d1 but her later d2 felt tonally really town. Idk. I'm tired and a lil buzzed right now so I need to like soberthink and tryhard tomorrow.

p-edit: I think I'm in favor of massclaim today as well though I kinda want to see if anybody objects before we go ahead and start claiming
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Post Post #2064 (isolation #145) » Sun Dec 22, 2019 7:47 pm

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Gamma I think it's weird that you think claiming Rose demonstrates "conviction", a vig claim from scum would be guaranteed to be CC'd so the only safeclaim is Rose. What say you to that

IMO the main advantage of massclaim here is we could likely conftown a vig and pseudoclear a rose if they shot already, which might force scum into different trajectories than they were planning
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Post Post #2189 (isolation #146) » Thu Dec 26, 2019 5:33 pm

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sorry for my long absence over the holidays, hope you all have had a wonderful Christmas/Hanukkah if you celebrated or just an otherwise good time this past week! reading up now
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Post Post #2190 (isolation #147) » Thu Dec 26, 2019 7:55 pm

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In post 2072, Menalque wrote:
In post 2061, GuiltyLion wrote:If I had to like take a stab at the gamestate I think I'm still townreading Datisi, Ico, and Amrun, but I don't feel great about it. My gut scumreads are Smart and Menalque but I don't feel great about that either. Gammas slot is bad and I still want to lynch it, but we just lynched two bad slots that flipped town, and I don't have a confident read on Dogwatch or Alimdia. I kinda want somebody else to try to take charge for a little bit because I think somewhere along the way I've been buddied and I don't see it.
Why am I a gut scumread for you GL
idk if I can explain it honestly, you just feel different to me than our last two games together - it feels like there's more of an agenda/plan to the stuff you're doing and you're consciously trying to emulate your townplay rather than just being your townself. I can't really give firm reasons outside of the DDL tunnel D1 and your brief push on me D2 tho, it's entirely gut and I waffle on it myself constantly
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Post Post #2191 (isolation #148) » Thu Dec 26, 2019 8:03 pm

Post by GuiltyLion »

In post 2149, Amrun wrote:@GL: if you’re gut scumreading Menalque, why do you care that she’s townreading Datisi?
because generally I'd not put much stock in a town!Menalque and scum!Datisi universe given his claimed experience with her. if I can feel good about their associative not being theatre then that means Datisi is town regardless of what Menalque's alignment is
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Post Post #2192 (isolation #149) » Thu Dec 26, 2019 8:08 pm

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also like I said Menalque, I'm still scum reading primarily in slots that were off both lynches and don't seem to be controlling the game state which is making me feel like someone more active is scum in my town pool... like if we had infinite lycnhes I'd just roll on through Gamma next here but I'm worried my overall reads are way off right now

if you wanna kowtow let's talk the Datisi/Amrun/DogWatch block that was with me in the middle of both lynches - possible there's no scum in there? What's your latest on DogWatch and Amrun?
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Post Post #2193 (isolation #150) » Thu Dec 26, 2019 8:12 pm

Post by GuiltyLion »

In post 1603, Amrun wrote:
In post 787, texcat wrote:As I said when I voted him, I didn't like post where he voted Datisi for pointing out that there were 3 scum. I originally thought this was just a RVS vote, but GL spent some time defending it as a serious vote. So it wasn't the actual vote that looked scummy to me, it was the way he continued to defend it as serious.

I think Amrun is town mostly based on the wagons. If GL were to flip town at some point, I'd definitely revisit Amrun.

DDL is pretty well stuck in the null column for me. I think he voted me at some point, so just my omgus instinct would move him over to slightly scummy. He's made more posts than I have, but has said less. ;-)
In post 790, Amrun wrote:Ugh, don’t like texcat’s stance on me - if GL is indeed town, feels like lining up mislynches.
I forgot how much I hated this series of texcat posts.
In post 1604, Amrun wrote:VOTE: texcat
In post 1605, Amrun wrote:I just re-read the entirety of d1 hoping for new clarity.

I didn’t really get it, but it still wasn’t a total waste of time.

My scumread on texcat really firmed up.

DDL slot seems worse on review; his progression on me didn’t seem very natural. I forgot he came into the game townreading me. I believe he inned for me and remembers my old glory days, but he may well have rolled scum here. It’s still relatively weaker than some other reads because it would have been easier to try and pocket me as scum in this way.

I feel better about Ico’s slot. The play is erratic but doesn’t seem scum motivated.

My townread on S_S slightly weakened; I felt minmeldy at post 1039, but 1052 feels a little bit like a perspective slip if Ico ever flips town. My townread on AF got a little murky but I don’t want to revisit that for now.

Pret’s professed scumreads: Datisi, texcat
Pret’s professed townreads: GL, Amrun, S_S (weak)

This would be more helpful if we could be sure this wasn’t a townvig, but Sal literally called for town to vig Pret upon creature townflip so... sigh.

Sal’s reads are all ochem the place. I feel like the slots most likely to be threatened by him are: Iconeum, Datisi, and S_S. S_S he specifically said to be wary of on a Creature townflip. Other lesser threats would be DogWatch, DDL, and GL, though he changed stances there several times.
one other reason I have for town reading Amrun is the time sequence between these posts... if she's scum, she either pretended or legitimately reread the game in between the first post and the third, because it was over an hour of time that passed between the two. This kind of timing stuff scum don't generally tend to think about IMO, so I think it raises the odds she's just town and she genuinely reread D1 between these posts.
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Post Post #2195 (isolation #151) » Thu Dec 26, 2019 9:31 pm

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She could be, that just seems pretty significantly less likely. How often do you do that as scum?
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Post Post #2254 (isolation #152) » Fri Dec 27, 2019 6:29 pm

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In post 2245, Menalque wrote:Why do you think there is scum in there? I’m ruling out datisi scum so if there is it’s between DW and amrun but tbh I don’t really SR either of them
it's just because they were on both wagons in the deciding middle vote areas and I feel like it'd be really naive/foolish to assume that no scum was participating in either of those lynches as they were solidifying

but I agree with you that from like tonal/content perspective they all feel town and it's entirely a game state thing that's making me feel like I need to be careful
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Post Post #2273 (isolation #153) » Sat Dec 28, 2019 7:55 am

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I'm talking myself into a S_S vote. I don't think Gamma is the safest/best lynch today
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Post Post #2278 (isolation #154) » Sun Dec 29, 2019 7:37 pm

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In post 2246, Menalque wrote:And like I don’t really think he’s trying to do anything with his questions, I think he’s mostly just trying to be contrary to everything and stop any momentum from getting going which I don’t remember from town!him
this is exactly how I'm feeling about S_S in rethinking and re-ISOing. his playstyle is normally a little obstinate and against the grain but after almost 3 full game days I feel he's still not taking any kind of active role in attempts at serious game-solving and that's a problem by this point

I think if I'm wrong about my TRs anywhere it's in Amrun/Ico. I haven't gone back and done a super detailed reread for these comments but I feel like both slots are the ones that people have been casually scumreading but not actually pushing, which is usually a combo of townies being right but not being confident in it / scum making sure they have some plausible distancing/interacting without going too hard to start a wagon.

Really I feel pretty much exactly in line with Menalque's reads which is making me feel better about his slot
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Post Post #2281 (isolation #155) » Sun Dec 29, 2019 9:07 pm

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I'm here

I keep kinda just skimming every now and then when I have time and hoping I'm magically struck with inspiration but it's not happening, I think I'm definitely townreading a scum but I'm not sure who

how do you feel about S_S lynch? you seem generally pro
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Post Post #2283 (isolation #156) » Sun Dec 29, 2019 9:30 pm

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that's pretty good, I could buy stock in that. I frankly hadn't noticed that S_S claimed to be scumreading Amrun but basically because of your point about how he doesn't seem all that interested in pushing it - like, she's at the bottom of his reads but I couldn't recall a single post actively casing her or trying to get other people to vote her. The closest was when he was pushing me on why I townread her for the D1 reread posts/timing.

I still kinda have this lingering desire to townread Amrun partly because she seems to be scum in literally every game and she has to be town at some point, but she may definitely be that scum in my blindspot on the wagons that I'm looking for

one other thing that bugs me about this though is the AF kill, AF was a pretty staunch defender of Amrun. I don't wanna clear her on WIFOMy NK spec but it's something that doesn't make sense to me under scum!Amrun
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Post Post #2285 (isolation #157) » Sun Dec 29, 2019 9:50 pm

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In post 2284, Datisi wrote:Yeah, I see why you might think that, but wasn't the "lol RC/Amrun can't be scum together again right?" partly the cause of losing High Noon?
no it definitely was, and that sort of reasoning is logically incorrect on its face, I'm just explaining (partly to myself) why I'm gut feeling like I should be townreading her

AF was also scumreading S_S pretty strongly, so it could be something as simple as that
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Post Post #2286 (isolation #158) » Sun Dec 29, 2019 9:52 pm

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I think if we have like a Datisi/GL/Menalque/alimdia town block, that leaves Gamma/DogWatch/Amrun/S_S/Ico as a scum pool

DogWatch is actually maybe my strongest townread in that latter pool right now. if Gamma is the designated mislynch today then that leaves Amrun/S_S/Ico, which doesn't feel like a horrifically wrong solve

all those assumptions need to be right, but I definitely like that game state view more than simply parking a vote on Gamma
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Post Post #2288 (isolation #159) » Sun Dec 29, 2019 9:55 pm

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VOTE: Something_Smart
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Post Post #2330 (isolation #160) » Mon Dec 30, 2019 7:08 am

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In post 2300, Something_Smart wrote:
In post 2282, Datisi wrote:iii) they both seem to be fine compromising on the Gamma slot while again kinda ignoring the fact that the other one is willing to do that as well
I am not fine compromising on the Gamma slot
Smart, how were we to know this? the only time I saw you give a read there D3 was here:
In post 2123, Something_Smart wrote:Err

{Menalque}
{GuiltyLion, Iconeum}
{alimdia}
{DogWatch}
{Gamma Emerald}
{Amrun, Datisi}

I feel like that's more precise than it has any right to be though.

Also I just recalled that I've hard misread scumconeum multiple times so maybe he doesn't deserve to be where he is but then again none of those tiers are particularly confident anyway.
and then you haven't really bitten back at people voting or SRing Gamma at all

idk I don't want to just uselessly pile on if you're town but it's this passivity that's making me think you're scum - you can't call us out for "not thinking critically" when you aren't taking a lead on steering people towards the wagons you want. I get that we didn't listen to you on the Creature lynch but half the game it feels like you've basically said you don't have any confident reads in anything
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Post Post #2382 (isolation #161) » Tue Dec 31, 2019 3:43 pm

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Happy New Year everybody!!!

Gamma not commenting on anything is indeed bullshit
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Post Post #3487 (isolation #162) » Mon Jan 13, 2020 11:01 am

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hey gg everyone, very well played by the scum team! Each of you did a great job at various points in the game of getting me to talk myself out of a scumread on you whenever I was close to being onto something, and letting town destroy itself without taking too much suspicion as a result. In hindsight I shoulda gone in way harder on Menalque for voting/suspecting me D2, I always knew that was crap but he got me to let it go.

sorry to the rest of the townies, I feel a lot of this loss falls on me, my reads were pretty off the whole game :[

thanks for modding FakeGod, the game was a lot of fun and quite smoothly moderated
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