Final Fantasy XIV - A Realm Reborn Mafia (Game Over)

[Qrow and Raven]

i mean EJ was in the failed raid, so clearly EJ is the one that made it fail.
Dont forget, before the MB plan to switch the raid members EJ was hyper reluctant to leave the raid, but after, they started thinking that they probably could switch out of the raid.
This makes me believe that scum wanted the raid to fail, but EJ was the only one in there so they were very reluctant to do so.
tictac is right that the events there makes you look sus af.

Really? I see the exact opposite. I think we should be mech town because we were trying to stop a raid that fucking failed. How does any of that make us Elsa’s buddy?

~R

Because you wouldnt want your Elsa buddy to be PoE'd scum in the failed raid instead of you who is already being SR by a fair ammount of people.

No we weren't??? The scumpool att was Cakez/elsa/arc/StD/wheme

-Qrow

[Qrow and Raven]

i mean EJ was in the failed raid, so clearly EJ is the one that made it fail.
Dont forget, before the MB plan to switch the raid members EJ was hyper reluctant to leave the raid, but after, they started thinking that they probably could switch out of the raid.
This makes me believe that scum wanted the raid to fail, but EJ was the only one in there so they were very reluctant to do so.
tictac is right that the events there makes you look sus af.

This is level one logic. Do you seriously think Elsa was being genuine with that? If Elsa actually meant it, he would have actually left the raid. Instead he took the opportunity to mess with the optics, making it look like he was good with the switcheroo. I don't think it's fair to townblock the remainder of the D2 raid either. What happened to tictac being suspicious for the shaky confirmed status he tried to push along? I'll accept that TC is probably good knowing that he's Kokichi, because certain actions he took seem genuinely meant to help town. But tictac is not acting in good faith imo, and it bothers me that you seem to be taken in by his antics.

-Qrow

[Qrow and Raven]

i mean EJ was in the failed raid, so clearly EJ is the one that made it fail.
Dont forget, before the MB plan to switch the raid members EJ was hyper reluctant to leave the raid, but after, they started thinking that they probably could switch out of the raid.
This makes me believe that scum wanted the raid to fail, but EJ was the only one in there so they were very reluctant to do so.
tictac is right that the events there makes you look sus af.

Really? I see the exact opposite. I think we should be mech town because we were trying to stop a raid that fucking failed. How does any of that make us Elsa’s buddy?

~R

Because you wouldnt want your Elsa buddy to be PoE'd scum in the failed raid instead of you who is already being SR by a fair ammount of people.

You have to be trolling me with this. I’m not even going to address this.

~R

[Qrow and Raven]

i mean EJ was in the failed raid, so clearly EJ is the one that made it fail.
Dont forget, before the MB plan to switch the raid members EJ was hyper reluctant to leave the raid, but after, they started thinking that they probably could switch out of the raid.
This makes me believe that scum wanted the raid to fail, but EJ was the only one in there so they were very reluctant to do so.
tictac is right that the events there makes you look sus af.

This is level one logic. Do you seriously think Elsa was being genuine with that? If Elsa actually meant it, he would have actually left the raid. Instead he took the opportunity to mess with the optics, making it look like he was good with the switcheroo. I don't think it's fair to townblock the remainder of the D2 raid either. What happened to tictac being suspicious for the shaky confirmed status he tried to push along? I'll accept that TC is probably good knowing that he's Kokichi, because certain actions he took seem genuinely meant to help town. But tictac is not acting in good faith imo, and it bothers me that you seem to be taken in by his antics.

-Qrow

It’s patently absurd that anyone reading ours and Elsa’s posts would legit consider him to be townier than us. Thanks for the good laugh Sakura.

~R

[Qrow and Raven]

Gonna try to get to this today

-Qrow

[Qrow and Raven]

Dwlee should be eliminated. He is both spam and scum in the game.

What are you saying with this?

Are you Oka or Fire?

Didnt they say they were a kokichi alt.

Nee-heehee~

That is his avatar though.

You don’t sound like Kokichi, albeit it’s been a very long time.

~R

I will say that if TC is Kokichi, his hiding behind an alt for his first game back is something I deem as contempt of court regarding my grievance with him. I was kinda ready to let those slide but now, not so much.

-Qrow

[Qrow and Raven]

Yeah flavour claim StD so Toog can use his flavour check ^.^
~C

Gaius van Baelsar

nah i'll pass

Is this an actual flavor in FFXIV?

-Qrow

[Qrow and Raven]

Let's break this down a bit.

Let's start with a towncore.

You, me, Bell, Mandelbrot, Tomorrow Corporation.

Yes or no to these all being town?

This seems solid ngl
Also, noted wrt STD’s flavor thing

-Qrow

[Qrow and Raven]

Can mastina pass the raid by herself with her role?

That's her first claimed ability.

- House

I mean if the raid was just mastina and no one else

This seems supremely useless, I’d rather an almost full raid be done if we’re aiming to test this

-Qrow

[Qrow and Raven]

Wtf was the point of being able to reveal a janitor but not a roleswap

Yeah this
I don’t see how mastina’s janitor-bypass was ever meant to work if there was another part to it that would make it irrelevant
I don’t SR mastina for it though.

Btw, not pleased by Mandelbrot going ham about mastina being 3P, I trust the flavor claim, and I don’t think Warrior of Light would be a bad 3P for town.

-Qrow

[Qrow and Raven]

Oh I see, the fact that Janitor included a roleswap with it means the +1 shot on it is useless because it loses the janitor portion when claiming the new role, that was smart GIF.

It was also what fucks over my intended nonconventional use of my role. (My role was not

designed

to bypass a janitor, but I confirmed with GIF it had the theoretical

ability

to bypass the janitor. It does not however have the ability to bypass the roleswapper so by making the janitor a rolesweapper, my role could, fundamentally, not actually bypass the janitor because while it technically bypasses the janitor the intended effect of the janitor of preventing the role from being revealed is preserved because my bypass doesn't reveal the original role, it reveals the swapped role.)

Ok scratch my previous post.

Ahhhh

-Qrow

[Qrow and Raven]

Going through Elsa's iso, I found this...

Elsa/Titus scum imo.
- C

Elsa is ok today. I agree on Titus though

-R

This is why I'm bad with Hydras. I always set one of them off. Bleh.

Forgive my insolence Cheeky.

Do hydrae usually have dissonance with scum partners? I kind of want to award town points to RC here.

cyrus62’s White Flag says perhaps.

-Qrow

[Qrow and Raven]

VOTE: RealCheeks
Their vibes have just been awful all game, I’m more than ready to kill this slot.

-Qrow

[Qrow and Raven]

I just said that I was in a game where I’m pretty sure what you think doesn’t happen actually happened
Pretty sure scum!goats hydra had a good amount of dissonance on their scum buddy guiltylion as part of a play to get GL out of a distancing rut

As for Wheme, his contributions when he’s been around have felt okay but I think the fact he’s sinking into the background is kinda a bad sign, I think I rate his scumgame a bit similar to mine back when I was newer. But I think I don’t want to pick him out of the crowd yet, there’s something I can’t address yet but want to.

-Qrow

[Qrow and Raven]

We have 3 Garleans remaining.

Gaius
Livia
Rihtahtyn

This game only has five bad guys??

~R

[Qrow and Raven]

Mastina, this raid refills shots so if you're on it alone and force it to succeed you'd still be able to do that again

This doesn't work btw

If she was on the first one, wouldn’t she have one in reserve?

I still think tictoc is scum but I’ll trust Sakura on that for now, still think scum tried to ram failed raid through.

Arc and TC both rammed it through but Cheeky isn’t a tr so Idk.

~R

[Qrow and Raven]

If she is able to force it to succeed anyway. That's what she said her role can do

Have we asked mod because I doubt it

Didn’t she say she used up her X - shot on raid 3?

~R

[Qrow and Raven]

I mean... I can believe Sakura is doctor. It makes her earlier statement of "being right but still failed" make more sense.

Yeah, i basically healed mirio but he still died.
Was mad because i've literally never managed to save someone as a doctor, and the one time i was right something interfered with me.
Initially thought strongman, but the current raid reward makes me think it's probably not the case.

So, since you didn’t claim until D2, it seems more likely scum strongman interfered with your role than roleblocker.

~R

[Qrow and Raven]

So, since you didn’t claim until D2, it seems more likely scum strongman interfered with your role than roleblocker.

Exactly. The strongman has shot twice because titus died while being bulletproof for the night for the raid reward. So they had to have been on the first raid.

I think this is a really ingenious way to parse Bears. Eventhough I think they’re > rand town for trying to stop failed raid, it would be nice to have them confirmed - one way or the other.

~R

[Qrow and Raven]

I absolutely detest that mindset. I’ve said this in the past and I’ll say it a thousand times more: 3P are probably more inclined to scumside when persecuted by townsfolk than when just left to their own devices. Not that I think mastina has the option to scum side that much. I feel like if she is 3P her wincon is tied to the raids, most likely that a certain number have to succeed.

-Qrow

[Qrow and Raven]

The vote on Massy makes zero fucking sense. If he thought she was scum, sure but WTF at elimming survivor. Last time I was survivor, I got fucking run up day 1 and what the actual shit. Survivor is pro town if anything. Like wtf so what if its 3p. Its PRO TOWN.

Lies.

Survivor counts AGAINST town's majority.

If it's red, it's dead.

- House

Btw, not pleased by Mandelbrot going ham about mastina being 3P, I trust the flavor claim, and I don’t think Warrior of Light would be a bad 3P for town.

No such thing as "not a bad 3p".

Anything that isn't green counts against town's majority.

- House

When did Mastina claim 3P because I clearly missed it?

~confused Raven

[Qrow and Raven]

My big issue with this 3P thing is this isn’t like World of Warcraft where there is no true structure meant to be had. There is a plot the player character is meant to drive. I don’t think the game allows for the player to side with the enemy, no?
Toog, what’s your input?

-Qrow

[Qrow and Raven]

The vote on Massy makes zero fucking sense. If he thought she was scum, sure but WTF at elimming survivor. Last time I was survivor, I got fucking run up day 1 and what the actual shit. Survivor is pro town if anything. Like wtf so what if its 3p. Its PRO TOWN.

Lies.

Survivor counts AGAINST town's majority.

If it's red, it's dead.

- House

Btw, not pleased by Mandelbrot going ham about mastina being 3P, I trust the flavor claim, and I don’t think Warrior of Light would be a bad 3P for town.

No such thing as "not a bad 3p".

Anything that isn't green counts against town's majority.

- House

When did Mastina claim 3P because I clearly missed it?

~confused Raven

Flavor outed her. Already explained.

I also don't wait for group scum to give a full confession before I eliminate them.

- House

Link/Quote? Ftr, they weren’t any 3Ps in Magical Girls.

~R

[Qrow and Raven]

Btw, not pleased by Mandelbrot going ham about mastina being 3P, I trust the flavor claim, and I don’t think Warrior of Light would be a bad 3P for town.

No such thing as "not a bad 3p".

Anything that isn't green counts against town's majority.

- House

As a member of a benevolent 3p in that one game, Yume head disagrees with this

- Steven

lmfaooo, you two have got to be the most dysfunctional hydra ever. Holy fuck!

~R

[Qrow and Raven]

There's literally no reason to kill mastina this phase

There is literally no reason to kill mastina at all.

+1

I really don’t understand why House is obsessed with yeeting Mastina. If she’s indeed a 3P and I’m not going to believe that without some actual evidence, yeeting her this early is just straight up antitown.

~R

[Qrow and Raven]

There's literally no reason to kill mastina this phase

There is literally no reason to kill mastina at all.

+1

I really don’t understand why House is obsessed with yeeting Mastina. If she’s indeed a 3P and I’m not going to believe that without some actual evidence, yeeting her this early is just straight up antitown.

~R

Literally, read the game.

My brain is tired House.

I apologize. So are we going with my plan or something else.

Also, I think I. Ugh I am so fucking exhausted. *sigh*

Did Mastina claim 3rd party legit. Or was that just you being aggro.

Not aggro at all. The logic is sound.

All of the NPC's have a set course of action. A script.

The warrior of light (player character) does not. They can advance the storyline, or they can spend their whole life farming pelts in a starter zone.

The warrior of light is literally the third party in FFXIV lore, just like the player character is the master of their own destiny in every FF game.

I leveled Cecil to 50 on imps outside of Baron on one playthrough of FFIV back in the day (labeled as FF II, because original NA release).

The warrior of light has no alliances outside of those he/she/etc chooses for themselves. Every NPC has an assigned alliance.

Also also, if she WAS NOT 3p, she wouldn't have gotten so bent over me mentioning it, saying that it's something "I had no business bringing up".

That said, I'm not interested in her lim. I just love that I outed her.

- House

Did she claim it? I’m not searching through the entire game. Give me a link or quote.

~R

[Qrow and Raven]

There are no vigs it seems.

In MG it got misused.

~R

[Qrow and Raven]

Oh I'm not 3p.

So, why shouldn’t we believe this?

~R

[Qrow and Raven]

Oh I'm not 3p.

Where did Cakes say, " yes, I'm totally Mafia"?

- House

Cakez flipped scum, your point?

~R

[Qrow and Raven]

Eh, it's fine for survivor to claim, it's not fine for mafia to claim.

Not if I'm in the game, it's not. If it wasn't for Yume, I'd still be pushing that wagon.

Literally has scum powers. Not a member of any town alliance/group. She's 3p through and through.

- House

Based on fucking what?

And don’t tell me to read the game.

~R

[Qrow and Raven]

Eh, it's fine for survivor to claim, it's not fine for mafia to claim.

Not if I'm in the game, it's not. If it wasn't for Yume, I'd still be pushing that wagon.

Literally has scum powers. Not a member of any town alliance/group. She's 3p through and through.

- House

Uhh, you're wrong about mastina having scum powers.
She can only fail a raid if she's part of the hostile faction. In which case she's not survivor, just scum.

This is not even a productive discussion. It's not like anyone actually wants her dead.

- House

You were until your hydra partner nixed it. See, I actually am reading the game. I probably can’t find evidence of this because it doesn’t freaking exist.

~R

[Qrow and Raven]

Mastina if Elsa succeeded in swapping then when Elsa flipped did the traded role flip or Elsa's OG role flip?

I'd assume that alignments can't be shown wrong or else the game would be labeled bastard. If Elsa was town, then Elsa flipping as scum would be bastard modding, and to my knowledge, the game wasn't advertised as bastard, so. GIF would literally lose his modding experience for making a bastard game out of a game advertised as not bastard, if Elsa weren't scum.

It is interesting that 3p is the only party mandel seems right on.

Oh I'm not 3p.

I just genuinely think House's insistence on

hunting for 3p

is scummy as fuck because why the fuck would town hunt for 3p?

I am, explicitly, not groupscum--even if House

were

right about me being 3p (which he isn't, since my power is explicitly tied to me being town and fundamentally cannot come from a 3p which y'all would know if I fullclaimed which is, again, one of the reasons I don't want to), focusing on 3p is, and I want to reiterate this because House keeps deflecting: not hunting for groupscum. Yaknow: the thing

guaranteed

to exist and still be in the game?

Focusing on hunting (nonexistent, non-proven) 3p instead of focusing on hunting (proven to exist, certain to have 2-3 more members) groupscum.

There, I knew this was horseshit.

~R

[Qrow and Raven]

Shade harder, though.

It's just gonna blow back on you.

- House

How am I shading? You’re insisting she’s a 3P and her response clearly demonstrates otherwise and go ahead. You don’t scare me.

~R

[Qrow and Raven]

Hi.
This conversation can’t be productive past this point without Mastina’s claim.

Please talk about something else. Or just don’t talk to each other for a bit.

Fine, I’ll drop it for now.

~R

[Qrow and Raven]

Only thing with house is he claimed VT and then became a PR or something.

???

So one of them wasn’t true then obviously. I’m seriously confused by this unless you’re being facetious?

~R

[Qrow and Raven]

Romance is a wild card... but i'll leave that paranoia in the back of my head because it requires romance to have hard bused basically half her team for towncred.

I didn’t read Cakez and her as SvS.

~R

[Qrow and Raven]

VOTE: Qrow & Raven

I'm good with ending the day here. Coming in and dredging up old content to try and justify pushing me has all kinds of +scum equity.

- House

@Bell can I respond to this or no?

~R

[Qrow and Raven]

VOTE: Qrow & Raven

I'm good with ending the day here. Coming in and dredging up old content to try and justify pushing me has all kinds of +scum equity.

- House

Fix your reading comprehension. I didn’t shade you and you damn well know it. So why the over reaction?

~R

[Qrow and Raven]

Town
Mandelbrot, mastina, Mirio, Head One and Head Two
Mystic Bears, Sakura Hana, Romance, dwlee99, Bell
Save The Dragons, Titus, tictac, Whemestar
Elsa Jay, ArcAngel9, Tomorrow Corporation, Momrangal, Toogeloo
RealCheeks
-
SirCakez
-
Scum

this is approximately where I'm at reads wise, EJ shares space with my nulls but is there for mix of towny and scummy vs. being true null

-Qrow

OH yeah, this list and then Cakez going "no fucking way am I your sole scumread."

Meh, probably towny.

Disagree. Could have been Cakez pissed that a buddy wasn't even trying to leave an out to vote elsewhere.

- House

I’m just going to keep my mouth shut and take Bell’s advice.

~R

Spoiler:

[Qrow and Raven]

I don’t think House is scum, Nancy. I did research on Momodi after Elsa’s flip and she’s a Lalafell, which I believe House also softed based on what I read from Toog. I don’t think scum are gonna have such samey fakeclaims so I think he’s real.
However, I also think he needs to shape the fuck up. I honestly think he’s onto something with mastina being 3P, the auto-success just seems right for a 3P to have for balance. What I

do not condone

is his behavior of what seems to be bullying mastina over that belief. 3P is a fucking hard alignment to play, so I detest when people belittle them like what House is doing.

-Qrow

[Qrow and Raven]

VOTE: Qrow & Raven

I'm good with ending the day here. Coming in and dredging up old content to try and justify pushing me has all kinds of +scum equity.

- House

Fix your reading comprehension. I didn’t shade you and you damn well know it. So why the over reaction?

~R

It was dead and done.

You dredged it back up.

I'm done with you.

- House

Hey Bell, is it actually fair for me to be a masochist, because that’s not really my style.

~R

[Qrow and Raven]

I don’t think House is scum, Nancy. I did research on Momodi after Elsa’s flip and she’s a Lalafell, which I believe House also softed based on what I read from Toog. I don’t think scum are gonna have such samey fakeclaims so I think he’s real.
However, I also think he needs to shape the fuck up. I honestly think he’s onto something with mastina being 3P, the auto-success just seems right for a 3P to have for balance. What I

do not condone

is his behavior of what seems to be bullying mastina over that belief. 3P is a fucking hard alignment to play, so I detest when people belittle them like what House is doing.

-Qrow

I’m not believing it until I hear more from Mastina. She was adamant she’s not one and I’m about done putting up with this shit. He thinks he can bully me to shut up. Fuck no! that’s just makes not want to all the more.

~R

[Qrow and Raven]

Here's another tidbit:

Our role can't be roleblocked. Also, it succeeds even if we're the nk.

Nyah nyah, scum.

- House

Isn’t that essentially the same thing Mastina claimed?

And I’m not fucking “shading” which I wasn’t before either, so get a fucking grip why don’t you?
~R

[Qrow and Raven]

I just did my flavor homework on House’s flavor. I don’t see how he can be what he claims but he’s Flavor Leaf levels of willing to claim that he’s something he’s not, so it’s not AI.

-Qrow

[Qrow and Raven]

Here's another tidbit:

Our role can't be roleblocked. Also, it succeeds even if we're the nk.

Nyah nyah, scum.

- House

So... same as mastina's then, ok.

I knew I wasn’t actually losing my mind here.

~R

[Qrow and Raven]

Here's another tidbit:

Our role can't be roleblocked. Also, it succeeds even if we're the nk.

Nyah nyah, scum.

- House

So... same as mastina's then, ok.

Nope.

I have zero abilities for affecting raid success or getting TMI on dead bodies.

That's scum shit.

- House

Coroner was town in both CoD and OMB.

~R

[Qrow and Raven]

Here's another tidbit:

Our role can't be roleblocked. Also, it succeeds even if we're the nk.

Nyah nyah, scum.

- House

Isn’t that essentially the same thing Mastina claimed?

And I’m not fucking “shading” which I wasn’t before either, so get a fucking grip why don’t you?
~R

Oh look.

Another echo.

- House

<3

~R

[Qrow and Raven]

Hey, you’re more than welcome to prove me wrong.

-Qrow

[Qrow and Raven]

Hey, you’re more than welcome to prove me wrong.

-Qrow

I did long before you made that ridiculous post.

Which is why a push on me will never gain traction.

- House

Spoiler:

~R

[Qrow and Raven]

Sigh...

I'm not gonna continue this conversation, because mastina's probably gonna be smart enough to use her ability correctly this time, and since it's mod announced it will shut you up.

That won't change her flavor.

- House

This game is suddenly reminding me of DnD mafia and not in a good way. :/

~R

That post reminds me of my favorite NPC comment on Fable 2.

"My mum says you're wicked, and not in the

good

way."

- House

Spoiler:

~R

[Qrow and Raven]

Just as an FYI the ACTUAL term is Condemner so RC just proved they aren’t one.

-Qrow

[Qrow and Raven]

MB how long are we supposed to wait?
~C

Until Bell replies or I am on the raid. The silence confirms my suspicions that Bell is one of two roles and there is a huge issue with one of the roles.

???

~R

[Qrow and Raven]

I think I’ve seen Condemner used over Eliminator in the GIM thread which is why I prefer it.

-Qrow

[Qrow and Raven]

Just as an FYI the ACTUAL term is Condemner so RC just proved they aren’t one.

-Qrow

https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Condemner


Wow, why haven’t I ever seen this role before?

~R

[Qrow and Raven]

Just as an FYI the ACTUAL term is Condemner so RC just proved they aren’t one.

-Qrow

Not necessarily.

I was informed via pm when I accidentally used the prior term since my return that the new title is Eliminator.

- House

I haven’t heard of that one either but I have L _____er but it’s probably changed per the new rules.

~R

[Qrow and Raven]

Maybe "woof" is a password that unlocks specific abilities for scum?
That would spice things up.
~C

Spoiler: Don’t open if you’re not at least through episode 2 of the current season of Survivor

what like the beware advantage?

-Qrow

[Qrow and Raven]

Just as an FYI the ACTUAL term is Condemner so RC just proved they aren’t one.

-Qrow

Not necessarily.

I was informed via pm when I accidentally used the prior term since my return that the new title is Eliminator.

- House

I haven’t heard of that one either but I have L _____er but it’s probably changed per the new rules.

~R

I have never seen that role either like I said.

~R

[Qrow and Raven]

Anyway.
RealC/Bears
the strongman is within those 2 most likely, but doesnt mean the other cant be the roleblocker, i dont see any reason for the roleblocker to be in day 1 raid tho.
That leaves us with:
dwlee, AA9, STD, Wheme, TC, tictac, myself
Are the only ppl still alive that wasnt in the day 1 raid.
I know it's not me, and you shouldnt either unless you have insane paranoia of me.
it's probably not tictac either due to the flavor claim.
It's probably not TC.
and dwlee's in the raid anyway and mandel is defending them like no tomorrow.
So unless the strongman and roleblocker are exactly mandel/dwlee.

RealC/Bears contains the strongman.
AA9/STD/wheme contains the roleblocker.
OR
Mandel is exactly the strongman and Dwlee is exactly the roleblocker.

Q: Why is the roleblocker not in the raid?

A: I think since the raid was already going to auto succeed thanks to mastina, scum would value more having their 1-shots in the raid than the roleblocker, i doubt the roleblocker isnt infinite shots, but if it isnt then Romance suddenly starts looking more sus to me, so im going to assume the roleblocker is infinite shots, and so they wouldnt be on the raid, we already know Elsa had limited shots and was on it, so it's not unusual to assume another limited shot player would be on it. Cakez also was on it at some point but left.

Based on what you’re saying, rb obviously wouldn’t need to be in the raid but that doesn’t mean they weren’t.

~R

[Qrow and Raven]

Just read the last few pages. First off, sorry Raven.
I didn't think House would just keep picking at you like that.
I would just ignore him when he acts like that.


As for the sudden suspicion. I'm a little disappointed people haven't just iso'd me and noted my cakez/Elsa interactions just never coming from scum.
What partner spotlights their partner Elsa, before Cakez dies and then points out that hey, Cakez seemed to be bussing Elsa based on their vote. These were fairly original pushes too, without a lot like rout input or a lack of intent.

It’s fine Bell, I don’t expect you to be a Housekeeper.

~R

[Qrow and Raven]

Spoiler: Paranoia in the back of my head

What's bothering me about mastina is that she never actually claimed Hero of Light, she claimed

protagonist

and toog got baited into claiming the flavor for her.

Spoiler:

What is the difference exactly? Did she confirm the flavour?

~R

[Qrow and Raven]

Based on what you’re saying, rb obviously wouldn’t need to be in the raid but that doesn’t mean they weren’t.

I mean, remember that was back on Day 1, dont see any reason why the rb would be on the raid when literally both scum flipped have been limited shot and i dont think strongman is infinite shot anyway.

But scum can be on the raid for any reason, can’t they? Idk maybe?

~R

[Qrow and Raven]

Based on what you’re saying, rb obviously wouldn’t need to be in the raid but that doesn’t mean they weren’t.

I mean, remember that was back on Day 1, dont see any reason why the rb would be on the raid when literally both scum flipped have been limited shot and i dont think strongman is infinite shot anyway.

But scum can be on the raid for any reason, can’t they? Idk maybe?

~R

They can, but scum know each other's roles, so would they?

For fake towncred? Idk.

~R

[Qrow and Raven]

Based on what you’re saying, rb obviously wouldn’t need to be in the raid but that doesn’t mean they weren’t.

I mean, remember that was back on Day 1, dont see any reason why the rb would be on the raid when literally both scum flipped have been limited shot and i dont think strongman is infinite shot anyway.

But scum can be on the raid for any reason, can’t they? Idk maybe?

~R

They can, but scum know each other's roles, so would they?

For fake towncred? Idk.

~R

Oh look... the wildcard buzzword.
Take in mind Elsa was already in the raid AND the unknown strongman would ALSO the roleblocker be in the raid?

Yeah, you’re probably right.

~R

[Qrow and Raven]

You're supposed to be analysing stuff, not saying "oh scum did this because towncred"
There's a possibility the roleblocker was in the raid? YES ABSOLUTELY. But what are the chances that it actually happened? PRETTY FRIGGING LOW

damn i feel like im talking like mastina now.

I am analyzing. Like I said, you’re probably right.

~R

[Qrow and Raven]

Mastina is so obvtown here it hurts. People were pushing her in Doubles but I knew she was town in that because she doesn’t have that nuanced range of emotion as scum.

~R

[Qrow and Raven]

If she is town not my fault

Given how adamant you’ve been about how this time is different, I’m not willing to give you this.

-Qrow

[Qrow and Raven]

So were you role blocked or not

Idk if i was or not, Because i wasnt healing Romance so they could've as easily roleblocked someone else.

~R

[Qrow and Raven]

so masina went kinda full-hog on the dishonest rhretoric yesterday, but hey, confirmable role so let her confirm it.
the pool of

possible

very likely rbs is [StD,

QR

, wheme]
take a wild guess on who I think it is.

hint:
VOTE: QR

not touching the raid today.
i think massclaim-day should be today or tomorrow. today would be my pref.

cheeks-hate is nka or?
their flavorclaim seemed a risk for no benefit if not actually vt (will confirm I am also). can't be cakes result on me n1 since they used that 4 pts apparently.

Speaking of

VOTE: join raid

I will do it just to spite you since you’re so stupidly deathtunnelled on us.

~R

[Qrow and Raven]

How do you know they’re tunneled on you and not just scum qrow?

They could still be. Someone said their flavour was town indicative but I could definitely see it as a possible fakeclaim.

Just to be clear, I’m not tr them and want them nowhere near elo.

~R

[Qrow and Raven]

Hmm

Hmm what?

~R

[Qrow and Raven]

I don’t know how I feel about it so I’m saying hmm instead.

They could still be scum, they’re definitely not a tr, so I’m trying to decide if they’re being stupid or scum. I’m not opposed to voting them but I’ve been trying to get them elimed and no one’s interested, so if that changes, I’d be totally onboard.

~R

[Qrow and Raven]

You're still in the strongman PoE and you're townreading the other strongman contenders.

If you feel the need to justify it, then there's a problem. You're moving the goal posts and you know it is smarter to kill the roleblocker than the strongman. I know that we need to be flipped, I'm just pissed off its because you guys are silly enough to listen to Romance and not because it's the optimal thing to do.
~C

Cheeky, who do you think is strongman?

~R

[Qrow and Raven]

so masina went kinda full-hog on the dishonest rhretoric yesterday, but hey, confirmable role so let her confirm it.
the pool of

possible

very likely rbs is [StD,

QR

, wheme]
take a wild guess on who I think it is.

hint:
VOTE: QR

not touching the raid today.
i think massclaim-day should be today or tomorrow. today would be my pref.

cheeks-hate is nka or?
their flavorclaim seemed a risk for no benefit if not actually vt (will confirm I am also). can't be cakes result on me n1 since they used that 4 pts apparently.

Speaking of

VOTE: join raid

I will do it just to spite you since you’re so stupidly deathtunnelled on us.

~R

FYI, if today's raid fails, you're pretty much the default lim.

That's if we don't switch wagons to get rid of you instead.

I'm down for either, Sakura.

- House

Seriously just fuck off with your attempts to intimidate me.

~R

[Qrow and Raven]

VOTE: Join raid
Hope I get on this

Can give thoughts/read later

Will we

Finally

get some non-AA9 thoughts?

Especially from Dwelee.

I thought she had a > rand chance of flipping scum, based on her trying to ram through raid but I need to reacess my theory now since the only other slot who rammed through the raid was confirmed to not have gone anywhere.

~R

[Qrow and Raven]

I'm down for either, Sakura.

between RC and QR i rather RC atm.

What really pisses me off, is he has no valid reason for his shitpush. He tried to push Mastina yesterday and jumped on me for saying his 3p read was hot garbage, so I’m fine just ignoring him.

~R

[Qrow and Raven]

MB please claim, it would help alot figuring out this jigsaw. If it's even halfway decent we get killed today so glgl.
~C

You, MB, Wheme.

~R

[Qrow and Raven]

Btw, the only reason I suspect the strongman being in the first raid is because it would mean Mirio was strongman'd (Which makes sense if they got an extra shot they might as well use it N1). The only chance is... if considering i never hinted or claimed my role D1, scum decided to randomly roleblock me and got lucky.
Which is why I say it's a 90% chance.

I lean to that as well and we know Titus was bp, so that makes way more sense than roleblocker.

~R

[Qrow and Raven]

{Dwlee99, mastina, Sakura Hana, TC}
{Toogeloo, Mystic Bears, Bell, tictac, Mandelbrot}
{Qrow and Raven, STD, WhemeStar}

Easymode.
~C

I wouldn't hate a Q&R lim, honestly.

- House

No, not worth it.

~R

[Qrow and Raven]

I don't know, they had to RB someone.
~C

But she didn’t claim anything until D2.

~R

[Qrow and Raven]

Like standard scum play is take out protection, block invest then take out invest unless they felt letting doc live was a better choice for some reason. I know not everyone agrees with NKA but on the chance I'm right, that either a strongman doesn't exist OR the strongman is outside of the pool, then due diligence is to see where else scum could be. From my PoV I know you're wrong, so I'll proactively help you along.

The slots I have trouble with are the cute ones like Bell and MB, there's no reason they're explicitly town but they're both townish and adorable which could bite us in the butt.
~C

Titus died a bp. Of course there has to be a strongman.

~R

[Qrow and Raven]

Or they could just be town who refuse to see the Light, idk.
It's still kinda impossible for the strongman to not be in that list.

If you had stayed on Romance, we’d know for sure because you didn’t, we have no way of knowing if strongman was used last night or not.

~R

[Qrow and Raven]

What is the basis for the strongman PoE again?

-Qrow

[Qrow and Raven]

At this point i dont care much about the roleblocker and im resigned to the fact that maybe i should just play like a VT until we hit the roleblocker.

Well if you want to hit the roleblocker you shouldn't be voting RealCheeks as they cannot be the roleblocker.

Strongman? Sure, but as you said, roleblocker's bigger threat.

If you’ve been paying attention the raids are repeating themselves in the exact same order, right? D1: X shot. D2: strongwilled D3: bp, D4: X shot. D5: strongwilled, so D6 will most likely be bp again, which means we absolutely should kill strongman because strongman is a bigger threat tomorrow. We don’t want a replay of what happened with Titus.

~R

[Qrow and Raven]

Strongman might be limited shot, but it doesn't necessarily equate to 1-shot, or they could be odd-night even. There is a lot of protection in a doc, commuter and BP raids.

About 2-Shot:

Mechanics Q & A

Q. What constitutes the ability as "1-shot?"

A. Any abilities that says in your Role PM that says "once per game" is considered as an 1-shot ability.

This along with the fact that every flipped X-Shot so far has 1-Shots i doubt it.
Odd-Night would mean there's a problem with the 3rd raid since it lands exactly on their strongman activation, meaning that read was meaningless in terms of reward.
To further indicate that the strongman wouldnt be 2-Shot, with the ability to refill/add shots in this raid, it gives incentive to the scum strongman to be townread enough to not be veto'd out of the raid, much like RC and Bears were.
However I did say it's a 90% chance, the 10% would be that I was randomly roleblocked by scum Night 1 instead of Mirio being strongman shot, I call it 10% because it's not impossible, just improbable.
And speaking of improbable.

Those that townread all 3 of Mandelbrot, Mystic Bears, Realcheeks

(or if you're one of them and townread the other 2), remember this saying:

Once you eliminate the impossible, whatever's left, no matter how improbable, it's the truth.

Yeah, it’s as I remember, there was thinking that strongman was 1-shot, 2-shot after having been on the D1 raid. But if scum were out of strongman shots, why’s Romance dead? It doesn’t matter what action Sakura

actually took

. Scum had no reason to think she’d protect elsewhere. So I’m wagering scum strongman shot Romance. But now we have a new problem: we know they strongman shot Titus, so that’s one shot expended. We’re assuming Mirio was a strongman shot because scum guessing Sakura was someone to block was deemed less likely or something. That’s another shot gone. How’d they get the third shot off when the only person in the existing pool is Mandelbrot and he’s proven to be something else? Don’t believe me? Look at these.

Momrangal, Cid (

Eorzean Inventor

), was eliminated Day 1.

Spoiler: Role PM

Cid

Welcome to FFXIV ARR Mafia

You are

Cid (

Eorzean Inventor

)

Ability:

• Garlond Ironwork:
  During the night you may craft a player a device that makes their action treated as strongwilled during the next night phase.
  
• Enterprise:
  During the night you may lend a player your airship Enterprise, giving them ability to commute during the next night phase.

Win Condition:

• All hostile factions are eliminated

Final Raid Group

1. Momrangal
   
   
2. Romance
   
3. mastina
   
4. Mandelbrot
   
5. Mystic Bears
   
6. Elsa Jay
   
7. RealCheeks
   
8. Toogeloo
   
9. Bell

The raid is a

success!

Night 1 begins

Deadline: (expired on 2021-09-26 20:27:34)

ArcAngel9, Papalymo (

Vanilla Eorzean

), was eliminated Day 4.

Spoiler: Role PM

Papalymo

Welcome to FFXIV ARR Mafia

You are

Papalymo (

Vanilla Eorzean

)

Ability:

• None.

Win Condition:

• All hostile factions are eliminated

Final Raid Group

1. Romance
   
2. Dwlee99
   
3. Tomorrow Corporation
   
4. mastina
   
5. Qrow and Raven
   
6. Mandelbrot
   
7. Sakura Hana
   
8. Toogeloo

The raid is a

success!

Night 4 begins

Deadline: (expired on 2021-10-10 19:45:49)

Some names other than Mandelbrot’s line up, but they’re all most likely town. Romance is flipped, Toog has been on the flavor game, and mastina has flavor that’s town-favoring 3p

at worst

.

So my question is thus: which part of this do y’all have a problem with? I don’t think I’m wrong to conclude the Romance kill was strongman-ized. Beyond that, everything I’ve put down had been the work of others. Am I saying the pool can’t be right? No. But I’m saying

you’re not updating your preconceived notions with new information

.

-Qrow

[Qrow and Raven]

Gamma, it's easy, scum RB me and kill Romance, there's no way for me to do anything about that (and it's the correct choice since Romance has better reads than me)

That also feels possible

-Qrow

[Qrow and Raven]

What is the basis for the strongman PoE again?

Strongman is almost assuredly an X-shot role, most likely one-shot.
Mirio died N1 with Sakura Hana protecting the slot--a very high chance of being due to a N1 strongman because strongmen tend to burn their shots N1 AND the alternative requires the scum roleblocker to have gotten ABSURDLY lucky by targeting Sakura Hana with zero info on Sakura.

Titus died N3 while bulletproof, which is proof that she was strongman'd.

Ergo, there is a very high chance that there was a scum strongman on the D1 raid which gave them a second shot.

Final Raid Group

1. Momrangal
   
   
2. Romance
   
3. mastina
   
4. Mandelbrot
   
5. Mystic Bears
   
6. Elsa Jay
   
7. RealCheeks
   
8. Toogeloo
   
9. Bell

It cannot be {Romance, mastina, Elsa Jay, Mandelbrot} due to their flips/roles.
That leaves the possibilities as {Mystic Bears, RealCheeks, Toogeloo, Bell}.
Toogeloo has very strong reason to not be scum;
Bell is not scum because this is his towngame.

Ergo, we have a 50/50 for the scum strongman in {Mystic Bears, RealCheeks}.

However, we also had a similar basically-50/50 for the scum roleblocker which is why voting WhemeStar is better here.

What about Titus? She had bp the night she died. Like we literally have proof of a strongman kill N2 and Occam’s razor makes sense about Mirio too.

~R

[Qrow and Raven]

Like we literally have proof of a strongman kill N2

N2 was a janitor kill.

I meant N3.

~R

[Qrow and Raven]

As I've been saying all scum has to do is roleblock me and shoot wherever they want to shoot and they dont need the strongman for that.

Not if we kill the scum strongman today. Then they're forced to kill you since they can't kill your doc save, and they can't wait until tomorrow because you get BP tomorrow.

strongman cant bypass strong heal, but strong roleblock can block strong heal.
I said this back in D2.

@mod what happens if strongman gets strongwilled?

~R

[Qrow and Raven]

Ok I misremembered the last posts as thinking he was town not too towny so.

Too towny to be town IS a legit thing, for players with scummy town games.

We try harder to look like town as scum to avoid the scrutiny we don't care about as town.

- House

You forgot about NK15 already?

~R

[Qrow and Raven]

Ok I misremembered the last posts as thinking he was town not too towny so.

Too towny to be town IS a legit thing, for players with scummy town games.

We try harder to look like town as scum to avoid the scrutiny we don't care about as town.

- House

You forgot about NK15 already?

~R

Apparently.

What about them?

- House

You mean besides them being a flaming open wolf in pretty much every game they rand scum?

~R

[Qrow and Raven]

Ok i was right not to vote yet.

Yeah. Qrow is still on the raid.

#NotAFan

- House

(I'm not speaking from a personal perspective here, Gamma)

- House

Well you’re starting to legitimately bother Nancy so could you stop trying to spread paranoia about us at every turn????

-Gamma

[Qrow and Raven]

Why the fuck did you think you were getting shot as VT?

-Qrow

[Qrow and Raven]

You were trying to get the BP effect, that’s basically the only reason why you’d do that.

-Qrow

[Qrow and Raven]

Has STD or Wheme claimed? StD softed PR when they were refusing yo get off the raid.
~C

I’m thinking Mastina maybe right. Wheme has just been coasting and at least Cheeky and STD are doing things.

Wheme claim or I’m voting you.

~R

[Qrow and Raven]

I would much prefer Wheme > STD or Cheeky today. Wheme clearly doesn’t care about the game, he’s barely posting. How is he town?

~R

[Qrow and Raven]

Has STD or Wheme claimed? StD softed PR when they were refusing yo get off the raid.
~C

I’m thinking Mastina maybe right. Wheme has just been coasting and at least Cheeky and STD are doing things.

Wheme claim or I’m voting you.

~R

Well... dont disagree with the threat, but can you hold off on voting wheme until the raid is set.

I wasn’t planning on voting anyone before then.

~R

[Qrow and Raven]

VOTE: Wheme

I think it’s pretty damned obvious, Wheme is scum here.

~R

[Qrow and Raven]

When Mastina said we were town by meta, a lightbulb went off in my head and I realized that this is greater > rand likely that this is Wheme’s scum meta.

And he didn’t claim, which seals it for me.

~R

[Qrow and Raven]

VOTE: Wheme

I think it’s pretty damned obvious, Wheme is scum here.

~R

Waaaait

Oog reasons I can’t discuss. Please trust me on this.

~R

[Qrow and Raven]

Actually... nvm, i dont need to test mastina's ability, she's just town because i had her as disaligned with EJ.

????

I’m talking about Wheme, not Mastina.

~R

[Qrow and Raven]

I back the wheme elim currently, I'll probably say more soon if needed.

-Qrow

[Qrow and Raven]

I’m saying that I have oog reasons to believe Wheme isn’t town here and I think it would be a mistake to lim anywhere else because I feel extremely confident about this.

~R

[Qrow and Raven]

There’s a post somewhere, I’m trying to recall who made it but it involves something about some suspicious interactions with Wheme/Elsa wrt to TC vote. If anyone remembers what I’m talking about, please help me find this post.

~R

[Qrow and Raven]

VC 5.02

RealCheeks (1):

Sakura Hana

WhemeStar (6):

RealCheeks, Bell, mastina, Save The Dragons, Mandelbrot, Qrow and Raven

Mystic Bears (2):

Toogeloo, tictac

Not Voting:

Dwlee99, Mystic Bears, Tomorrow Corporation, Dwlee99

With

13

remaining,

7

votes to eliminate

Deadline: (expired on 2021-10-22 20:19:14)

raid

Raid Queue - Ifrit

Success bonus for raid completion:

Gains strongwilled/strongarm for one night

Queue:

1. Sakura Hana
   
2. Mandelbrot
   
3. Mystic Bears
   
4. Bell
   
5. Qrow and Raven
   
6. Dwlee99
   
7. mastina
   
8. Toogeloo

Realm Danger Level: 0

Dwelee is mentioned twice. Are they a double voter or is this just mod error?

~R

[Qrow and Raven]

Actually... nvm, i dont need to test mastina's ability, she's just town because i had her as disaligned with EJ.

????

I’m talking about Wheme, not Mastina.

~R

It's less about who you're voting and more about testing mastina's ability to auto succeed a raid.

But I’m not the one who made that post, it was tictac.

~R

[Qrow and Raven]

Actually... nvm, i dont need to test mastina's ability, she's just town because i had her as disaligned with EJ.

????

I’m talking about Wheme, not Mastina.

~R

It's less about who you're voting and more about testing mastina's ability to auto succeed a raid.

But I’m not the one who made that post, it was tictac.

~R

Yes, but you voted for Wheme. Putting them closer to hammer before we organize the raid for it.
However as I said before, I dont think there's any need to test mastina's ability right now, mastina's clearly not scum.

He’s at E-1 rn, do you want me to unvote?

~R

[Qrow and Raven]

regardless dont do so now, if scum quickly jumps into the raid while hammering would be very bad.

K

~R

[Qrow and Raven]

Let’s note I believe this is the second time TC has tried to quick hammer and it once again is falling on a strongwilled raid day. I was willing to write off some of the claim shit as forgivable but this is a proof of bad faith action on TC’s part imo.

-Qrow

[Qrow and Raven]

Yeah, rereading the Dragon and Wheme I much rather prefer Wheme. Fits the bored and apathetic scum archetype much better.

that's just wheme being wheme. he is a townread of mine, not like a high read, but still. he has more posts than I do and inactivity not even scummy as u well know.
can we yeet bears instead? i agree that there's nothing really they could claim that's gonna match all the crap they hinted at.

You realize a hammer can’t be undone right?

~R

[Qrow and Raven]

Let’s note I believe this is the second time TC has tried to quick hammer and it once again is falling on a strongwilled raid day. I was willing to write off some of the claim shit as forgivable but this is a proof of bad faith action on TC’s part imo.

-Qrow

So how bad does it look if *we* hammer, then?

VOTE: Wheme

Not as bad given the timing is everything for what I talked about on TC?
Plus, I just checked and you were there already.

-Qrow

[Qrow and Raven]

Another day another cathcing up and then it being night POG

I cant imagine how much more inactive id be if i rolled scum

HOLY FUCK I WAKE UP TO ANOTHER 11 PAGES AHHH

He didn’t even comment on his own wagon. Why would town!Wheme just ignore that?

~R

[Qrow and Raven]

Not sure why there's still suspicion around mastina's slot when they've PoE'd two scum flips now.

Mystic Bears strongman makes sense with Sakura NK since they didn't get a +1 on the failed raid.
~C

Yesterday’s raid was the strong willed one, if MB is strongman being on it wouldn’t have helped anything for them, and I don’t think they were even on it at all. Your logic is shit.
VOTE: Join Raid
VOTE: Save the Dragons
I don’t get why we’re not still going with the PoE. Sakura was the main one leading that charge iirc so her dying should reinforce it.

-Qrow

[Qrow and Raven]

I know someone had a PoE of StD/Wheme for the RB
UNVOTE: until I can figure that out

-Qrow

and I oop

[Qrow and Raven]

But really, there isn't an actual valid possible reason for one head of a hydra to be supes kung-ho about raiding, while the other head is not, so it's just bears+QR

If this is about our hydra, maybe it has to do with me being the mech side carry?
Also, there was a certain post that low-key confscummed Wheme for me and I would have gotten to point it out at an actually relevant time if

SOME PEOPLE

didn’t move slower than molasses!

-Qrow

[Qrow and Raven]

You lied about being a college student I think when I first met you? Or you age was different, but it isn't a serious thing. Lots of people lie about their ages on the internet.

Hey Bell, this post makes me a bit uncomfortable. If you’re referring to Death Curse? I don’t recall Noraa actually saying that? I did think that too att as well. I’m sure you mean nothing by this but I would prefer to keep anything involving rl stuff out of the game please.

~Raven

[Qrow and Raven]

Thought on 3 scum left to make number of game days more reasonable with only 1 NK per night? Oh also... why did scum have a body guard? O_o
~C

It’s the first time I’ve ever seen one. Only thing could beat would possibly be a scum AC.

~R

[Qrow and Raven]

I still lowkey think the strongman PoE is wrong and I'm a sicker for people claiming they're town. What if it's just Q+R and STD?
~C

Why does scum!us prefer Wheme yesterday then to both you and StD? Obvious answer (to anyone bothering to read my posts) : I had valid reasons to sr him and I still can’t say because part of it is Oog.

~R

[Qrow and Raven]

I kinda think MB is town but what do I know

Bears is playing differently here than in both Death Curse and Pooky v FL. In that versus game, Noraa hardbussed their entire team pretty much. I’m also a bit concerned because Mastina was locked convinced on VFP!scum in OMB and he wound up flipping town, so if they’re scum here, they’ve majorly switched up their scum meta.

~R

[Qrow and Raven]

What's your 25%

Honestly?

That the rb/strongman theory spec is wrong and that the last scum is just a player who isn't cleared by play. (I'm pretty damn sure that RealCheeks is just town here by play.)

Given MB scum and theoretically not-you as scum...

Toogeloo is cleared by play;
Mandelbrot is cleared by play;
Bell is cleared by play;
Qrow and Raven is pretty damn cleared by play;
RealCheeks is pretty damn cleared by play;

That leaves a not-cleared-by-play pool of {Dwlee99, tictac, Tomorrow Corporation}.
From there, Tomorrow Corporation would be the least likely due to being the name that scum tried to force through instead of Elsa Jay, so, to give the answer you're looking for,

The 25% remaining where you're not scum is like 20% Dwlee, 5% tictac.

But I still have the 75% on you being scum and once I give a dump of last night's note I will show why.

I think rb may possibly have been an X shot because why wouldn’t you have been roleblocked?

~R

[Qrow and Raven]

VOTE: RealCheeks

I might sheep this. She was also defending Mystic Bears.

Actually, not as much as you'd think. Will explain this in a bit.

What's the PoE, Panda?

Well, by the rb/strongman logic, it'd be precisely:
{RealCheeks, Mystic Bears} for the strongman and {RealCheeks, Mystic Bears, Save the Dragons} for the roleblocker.
And RealCheeks is basically hard-cleared by play ESPECIALLY with a Mystic Bears scumflip.

If we're going by slots being town by play, I'd say the pool is a bit wider, but not by much, per 5773;
With Toogeloo, Mandelbrot, Bell, Qrow and Raven, and RealCheeks all town by play, that leaves a POE pool of,
{Mystic Bears, Save the Dragons, Dwlee99, tictac, Tomorrow Corporation}.

(Again, getting caught up in the thread properly then will be posting the PT content.)

I’ ve been sr tictac from the day they’ve been working overtime to try to get us miselimed. I just gave up on that because no one was listening to me.

I have reasons to think it isn’t TC though, which I don’t want to reveal just yet.

~R

[Qrow and Raven]

I think the PoE by play reads I'm worried about the most are q&r and bell. I'm also worried the scum team is bigger than we think/noone has really thought about the bp rewards and scum bodyguard. Pretty sure the whole game will collapse if MB is town but at least we made friends along the way ^.^
~C

Sure Cheeky, I hardbussed my buddy after two of my presumed “buddies” already died.

That theory is almost as good as me trying to take the fall for Elsa.

I love getting trolled, well not really.

~R

[Qrow and Raven]

I think you can pretty safely discount TC as the counterwagon to Elsa, which points more at Dwlee than STD to be honest since Dwlee was pretty insistent on eliminating TC and AA9 over Elsa and Wheme.
~C

I think TC is town for other reasons.

~R

[Qrow and Raven]

@mastina not mad about raid failing, tho did get super paranoid when it felt like u were avoiding the test.

You shouldn't be paranoid about that.

She stated clearly that she wanted to save her role for today, yesterday.

- House

+1

It was that stupid test that wound up causing us to fail that raid.

~R

[Qrow and Raven]

So um...there are some contradictions we've noticed concerning mastina. Like this one

6 players, to contain the strongman and the roleblocker.

D2 (strong-willed) Final Raid Group

1. Dwlee99
   
2. RealCheeks
   
3. Bell
   
4. Elsa Jay
   
5. Sakura Hana
   
6. Romance
   
7. tictac
   
8. Tomorrow Corporation

The scum roleblocker basically cannot be among these names, because if the scum roleblocker were among these names, there was no need to make the raid fail in the first place, and in fact, making it fail would be incredibly detrimental. Which means that the roleblocker cannot* be Dwlee99, tictac, or Tomorrow Corporation.
(*Granted, this is where the 25% on STD not being scum comes from; if Elsa made the raid fail in spite of how detrimental doing so was to the scum, Dwlee, tictac, and Tomorrow Corporation would all theoretically be possible to be scum.)

So the possibilities for the scum roleblocker are:
{Save the Dragons, RealCheeks, Mystic Bears}.
Per the town players being town by play, and the raid poe theory, that means one of those three MUST* be the scum roleblocker.
(*see above)

So if RC is in the pool of names that can't contain the roleblocker, why did you put them in roleblocker pool anyway?

And there is this one:

Yo, at work, so can't deal with PMS and such, or really respond to stuff in the thread at all, but:

I REALLY wanna save the shot for tomorrow.

Meaning, that right now, an unfilled raid will fail.

I just couldn't submit given work.

And what's up with that?

- Victorine

I seriously can’t believe our slot got accused of dissonance.

~R

[Qrow and Raven]

I'd find it super funny if Mastina typed that all up and then MB flips town a la Bingle in MBOS.

I'm confused why I'm still in people's poes here

Can you link that game for me?

~R

[Qrow and Raven]

So raid needs 8/11. The consensus pool of scum seems to be STD, Dwlee, MB and us so if people have to choose who is going on the raid out of us 4?
~C

Don’t you have any thoughts about who should be on/not on that raid?

~R

[Qrow and Raven]

Nancy are you parroting me?

No.

[Qrow and Raven]

So raid needs 8/11. The consensus pool of scum seems to be STD, Dwlee, MB and us so if people have to choose who is going on the raid out of us 4?
~C

Don’t you have any thoughts about who should be on/not on that raid?

~R

Well if it were up to me, we would be on the raid. Since the strongman has no shots left, assuming they started as 1x, this raid if successful will force scum to shoot outside the raid in the remaining 3 names. StD refusing to get off the raid again is pretty much a scum claim because scum want to give themselves a bigger town pool to shoot in. Like if the team is exactly StD/Dwlee and we leave them off the raid then theoretically there would be no NK. If one of the two is scum - one will be the NK and it resolves that slot for us instead of having to eliminate them, we can then use an elimination to check the other.

If you omit us, and the raid succeeds then scum will be forced to kill us if the other person outside the raid is scum, which again saves town a flip.
~C

I would prefer you to be on the raid over StD but unless he jumps off, I don’t see that happening.

[Qrow and Raven]

Mastina. Thoughts on this?

I mean the other half of my role is pretty damn clearing in of itself so I don't feel the need to clear myself from making an undersized raid succeed. (And Mandelbrot and Toog both saw my fullclaim so can vouch for that.)

But while I don't think my role needs to be proven, I really don't care--I'm making the raid succeed, and with the scum (presumably) out of strongman shots, that limits their kill pool.

So I don't care one way or another. Undersized raid proves me but scum can't kill me due to my BP until N7; full raid doesn't prove me but scum's kill pool is even smaller. Doesn't really matter to me, one way or another, because I've done my job regardless.

I don’t agree with the testing thing. I think it just helps scum.

~R

Last post was also Raven.

[Qrow and Raven]

The reasons for town believing there is an RB and strongman are pretty valid.
- Romance claiming to be RB'd N2 onwards.
- Titus was killed and was BP.
~C

She only could have been rb’d twice because she flipped X shot and she was on D1 raid.

~R

[Qrow and Raven]

H1H2 said their role enabled them to strongly believe both TC and Tictac are aligned with town so I don't know if a role swap gave scum another ability or if they took an informed role.
~C

They also mixed up Alisae the poster with Alisaie the flavour and neither of them claimed that flavour, however I do think he was probably right about TC regardless.

~R

[Qrow and Raven]

If Nancy hammers after town reading me like that, that needs to be looked at tomorrow.
Didn't understand tictacs posts but that hammer would be funky. It'd be weird but not confscum.
But otherwise its just realcheeky and tomorrow.

Don’t do this to me Flea. I’m assuming this is Flea?

I think you’re probably town but you’re not really giving me alot here. :/

~R

[Qrow and Raven]

If Nancy hammers after town reading me like that, that needs to be looked at tomorrow.
Didn't understand tictacs posts but that hammer would be funky. It'd be weird but not confscum.
But otherwise its just realcheeky and tomorrow.

So, you're voting a player outside your solve with your scumread?

That totally makes sense.

- House

Well I am willing to vote basically any counter wagon.
Like STD is probably town but I could potentially be cleared in some way or another just through one night so I don't see why leaving that vote Flea put down there is an issue.

I thought that was Flea. How could you be cleared tonight and by what?

~R

[Qrow and Raven]

mastina:
-is in the strongman pool and started the game with a reason to be on every raid that gives +1 to oneshot abilities
-the read on QR is weid af when Raven basically gave up on trying to look town like a dayphase ago.
-cool there have been scumflips, but the important ones havent flipped (rb,strong), and the search for the blocker yelded a bodyguad insted, which is like ?? how does that happen even.
not like saying "yeet mastina", but going "nah fam, we good on info on mastina" is... silly. imma go with "silly" on this one.

That’s because I actually am town but you probably aren’t.

~R

[Qrow and Raven]

Tomorrow Corporation > RealCheeks >>>> Dwlee99 > tictac.

I am totally fine with this. Like if you just follow this order, game just ends in two days.
3 or 4 is also possible but it'd be more obvious if one of those two wasn't scum by that time. Also, I still nullread Dwlee really heavily and like Dwlee is by no means confirmed town from what I've read. To house I suppose.

That’s the reverse of Mastina’s order minus our name.

~R

[Qrow and Raven]

If Nancy hammers after town reading me like that, that needs to be looked at tomorrow.
Didn't understand tictacs posts but that hammer would be funky. It'd be weird but not confscum.
But otherwise its just realcheeky and tomorrow.

Don’t do this to me Flea. I’m assuming this is Flea?

I think you’re probably town but you’re not really giving me alot here. :/

~R

I feel like I've given you a lot to work with though. You were in death curse, pocketed really hard by me. You were in all of my larges. Have I even been attempting to pocket you this game? Aside from Ydrasse and Tomorrow, you are the person in this game that knows my meta the best. My emotions are so suppressed and I genuinely feel my reads.

I just feel whatever you are, that post towards me reads slightly manipulative, which I don’t think is fair. I’d really like to think you wouldn’t do that to me as scum, so I’m leaning town on you rn but if I’m wrong and you do flip red and you ever try that again, I will vote you in every game.

~R

[Qrow and Raven]

VOTE: Dwlee
I’ll get into the meat of this later but I can finally tear into something from a WHILE back.

-Qrow

[Qrow and Raven]

Romance, Urianger (

Eorzean 1-shot Cop

), was eliminated Night 4.

[Role PM]

Urianger

Welcome to FFXIV ARR Mafia

You are

Urianger (

Eorzean 1-shot Cop

)

Ability:

• Power of Research:
  Once per game
  during the night, you may investigate a player to determine whether they are sided with the Eorzeans.

Win Condition:

• All hostile factions are eliminated

Spoiler:

Day 5 deadline: (expired on 2021-10-22 20:19:14)

raid

Raid Queue - Ifrit

Success bonus for raid completion:

Gains strongwilled/strongarm for one night

Queue:

1. 
   
2. 
   
3. 
   
4. 
   
5. 
   
6. 
   
7. 
   

Realm Danger Level: 0

[Qrow and Raven]

Added a list of backups in votecount per request

[quote="In [url=https://forum.mafi

Deadline: (expired on 2021-09-28 14:41:59)

Raid

Raid Queue - Garuda

Success bonus for raid participants:

gains 1-shot for applicable roles

Queue:

1. Momrangal
   
2. Romance
   
   
3. mastina
   
4. Mandelbrot
   
5. Mystic Bears
   
6. Elsa Jay
   
7. RealCheeks
   
8. Toogeloo

Backup:

1. Bell
   
2. Sakura Hana
   
3. Tomorrow Corporation

Realm Danger Level: 0

ArcAngel9 is in V/LA until Monday

[/quote]

[Qrow and Raven]

I think the biggest town tells for me may be yet to come.
Btw, I think now’s a good time for mass claim.

-Qrow

[Qrow and Raven]

One thing that I think puts the final nail in STD’s coffin is scum already had a flipped role that’s a counter to any neighborhood action for a phase

-Qrow

[Qrow and Raven]

It points to STD’s claim being straight-up fake actually, as even if StD were town that’s still 2 counters to the same role.

-Qrow

[Qrow and Raven]

VOTE: Join Raid
wasn't gonna do this until tictac actually realized trying to scrape out a "townclear" from being off-raid was never gonna work because he'd either get auto-joined or the raid wouldn't fill and he'd be lacking in the actual clear

-Qrow

[Qrow and Raven]

You've been thinking we're scum for how long House?
And I don't see how scum!tictac wouldn't fish for the same derpclear

-Qrow

[Qrow and Raven]

wdym by hypersensitivity, because I feel like you're being kinda unfair here

-Qrow

[Qrow and Raven]

Idk what's sideways about my approach to you, but I appreciate that you're taking my feelings into consideration.

-Qrow

[Qrow and Raven]

You've been thinking we're scum for how long House?
And I don't see how scum!tictac wouldn't fish for the same derpclear

-Qrow

Pretty much since the hypersensitivity started. Does not feel at all genuine.

- House

I’m always hypersensitive, that’s a very bad metric for reading me.

~R

[Qrow and Raven]

Hi, I'm off work, not sure what to make of that interaction.

STD, Qrow, Tictac,

did ya'll answer my "why aren't you scum this game" question?

Well, my interactions with flipped scum. I pushed Wheme when Cheeky was also on the table and it also pretty damned obvious we can’t be buddies with Bears.


~R

[Qrow and Raven]

You've been thinking we're scum for how long House?
And I don't see how scum!tictac wouldn't fish for the same derpclear

-Qrow

Pretty much since the hypersensitivity started. Does not feel at all genuine.

- House

I’m always hypersensitive, that’s a very bad metric for reading me.

~R

You're also not Gamma.

Of course I wouldn't apply the same metrics to you.

- House

Why eyeroll emoji?

What metric would you apply to me?

~R

[Qrow and Raven]

vary

~R

[Qrow and Raven]

"Why aren't I more concerned about QR-scum here?" is a question someone should ask me, so I'm doing it.
Well, tictac, as far as I can see their best path to victory goes like this:
yeet StD
NK Mandel
yeet dw (it does have to be dw before me, cause reading days 2 and 3 w my flip info that mastina TR on them gonna be gone I bet. I intend to make this difficult)
NK TC
yeet tictac (intent to make this difficult also)
NK Mastina
and they in 3p w Bell and Toog, which I'm fairly sure they will lose.

and this assumes no new info from role-reveals and Mastina NA continues to be as useless as it has been to date.

soo @Bell & Toog: always vote for the third person in a 3p and u gonna win.

I actually think I liked you better when you were shitpushing me.

~R

[Qrow and Raven]

Is tomorrow the strongwill raid? We could yeet STD tomorrow just with the fact that then hopefully we get a strongwill night which negates the roleblock thingy. And if scum fail it we get a conftown

Can you explain this and who would the confitown be in this scenario?

~R

[Qrow and Raven]

I voiced a concern in our PT last night about why do we have 2 scum with protection abilities? I can see 1 for WIFOM, but 2 just seems weird to me, and 21 players, 1 kill a night, 5 scum, I just have some thoughts, but they're confusing.

Since STD has claimed, my theory is that H1H2's

actual

role was some form of Vig, maybe conditional but also presumably very powerful. (No way to know if scum could've used it tho given we eliminated Elsa D3.)

That'd explain why we haven't seen a Vig (the vig died already), AND why scum have anti-vig abilities.

Could be? That would definitely account for Bears having a bp but he talked so much about Alisae the poster, which makes me think he may possibly have had some info on Alisaie the flavour, which I actually thought could have been StD, which is obviously not the case. It’s just such a shame that you weren’t able to recover that flip because then we might possibly have an inno on someone but vig does make the most sense because why does scum have a bp otherwise?

~R

[Qrow and Raven]

if you're town you want me on the raid

So att I thought your janitor recovery thing was going to inno him.

~R

[Qrow and Raven]

Tomorrow Corporation > RealCheeks >>>> Dwlee99 > tictac.

I am totally fine with this. Like if you just follow this order, game just ends in two days.
3 or 4 is also possible but it'd be more obvious if one of those two wasn't scum by that time. Also, I still nullread Dwlee really heavily and like Dwlee is by no means confirmed town from what I've read. To house I suppose.

Interesting that Bears doesn’t mention StD at all here and tictac is last.
~R

[Qrow and Raven]

If Nancy hammers after town reading me like that, that needs to be looked at tomorrow.
Didn't understand tictacs posts but that hammer would be funky. It'd be weird but not confscum.
But otherwise its just realcheeky and tomorrow.

So, you're voting a player outside your solve with your scumread?

That totally makes sense.

- House

Well I am willing to vote basically any counter wagon.
Like STD is probably town but I could potentially be cleared in some way or another just through one night so I don't see why leaving that vote Flea put down there is an issue.

This reads a lot like distancing. Bears votes StD, their cw and calls them “probably town”? Also since we know Cheeky is town, I think TC is probably spewed town by that last post I quoted.

~R

[Qrow and Raven]

UNVOTE:

Not really feeling Dweele, so trying to decide between tictac and StD. I still think tictac has been scummier but not opposed.

~R

[Qrow and Raven]

Minfilia

i'm a beloved princess who roleblocks town when killed
i'm also an enabler of day access for private topics

you know

something i didn't really want to claim unless i absolutely had to
something i really wanted to get BP for so scum wouldn't lolkill me and fuck people over
something i didn't need strongman or an extra shot for so i stayed off those raids

i'm an encryptor not an enabler, sorry. i'm probably providing mafia daytalk and nothing else, which is why i have the beloved princess part of my role as a catch-22. i assumed i was enabling house but i guess i wasn't doing that.

[Qrow and Raven]

I think StD’s at E-1. I would hammer but unless we’re all okay with raid failing, probably not a great idea.

~R

[Qrow and Raven]

VOTE: StD

~R