for those who didn't see, basically a bunch of MSers submitted fictional candidates to battle to the death in this cute, ultra-complex program i have that simulates presidential elections (well, it's a game, but it's basically a simulation), and now i'm gonna let the computers run wild with those candidates and we can see who's the best at thinking up fictional presidential candidates
there's still a couple things to clean up but this will start within the day, or maybe even tonight
[align=center][size=200]The Week of XYZ[/size]
[i]XYZ days until NEXTEVENT
XYZ days until NEXTEVENT
XYZ days until the Presidential Election[/i][/align]
[size=150][b]Headlines[/b][/size]
[i]The papers are released each day in the morning, and describe what happened the previous day.[/i]
[b]Wednesday's papers:[/b] XYZ
[b]Thursday:[/b] XYZ
[b]Friday:[/b] XYZ
[b]Saturday:[/b] XYZ
[b]Sunday:[/b] XYZ
[b]Monday:[/b] XYZ
[b]Tuesday:[/b] XYZ [b][color=blue]Serduchka[/b][/color] is today in , and [b][color=red]Negarir[/b][/color] is in .
[size=150][b]Week in Review[/b][/size]
[i]The news cycle strength is how good or bad your media was for the week, if you had any media at all, and if the cycle was a week long. The ads just tell you who's producing what, and what's being targeted in each. Scandals are self-explanatory. The full picture has basically everything that happened, but unformatted, so you can cry while you read it.[/i]
[spoiler=News cycle strength][b]XYZ[/b][/spoiler]
[spoiler=Ads]XYZ[/spoiler]
[spoiler=Scandals][/spoiler]
[spoiler=The rest]XYZ, delete observer-based info[/spoiler]
[b][size=150]THE MAP[/size][/b]
[i]Ignore McMullin. Blue means Democratic, red means Republican, white means too close to call. [b]This is polling[/b]: real results [b]will [/b]vary, and outlier polls [b]will[/b] happen.[/i]
[align=center][img][/img][/align]
[b][color=blue]Democratic-moving states:[/color][/b]
[b][color=red]Republican-moving states:[/color][/b]
[b][color=purple]Current tossups:[/color][/b]
According to polling, the current Electoral College looks like:
[align=center][b][size=450][color=blue]XYZ[/color] - [color=red]XYZ[/color][/size][/b][/align]
[b]Next time, on this thing!:[/b] XYZ
Last edited by Drench on Thu Apr 06, 2017 1:49 am, edited 55 times in total.
Post
Post #2 (isolation #2) » Fri Jan 06, 2017 11:18 pm
Postby Drench »
PRIMARY ELECTIONS
Spoiler: Iowa
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
+/- final polling
Abbott
40.2%
75,114
12 dels
-0.2%
Mothma
16.2%
30,373
5 dels
+2.2%
TSL
14.0%
26,244
4 dels
+0.9%
Negarir
13.5%
25,254
4 dels
+1.2%
Khan
9.0%
16,909
3 dels
-1.0%
Defender
7.0%
13,038
2 dels
+0.2%
Total
161,678
30 dels
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
+/- final polling
Serduchka
61.3%
104,835
51 dels
43.6%
Peanuts
11.7%
20,068
0 dels
-5.8%
Spire
10.9%
18,662
0 dels
-9.8%
McGriddles
9.6%
16,418
0 dels
+2.2%
Reckoner
6.5%
11,126
0 dels
-1.9%
Total
171,109
51 dels
Spoiler: New Hampshire
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
+/- final polling
Abbott
27.1%
77,437
7 dels
-4.2%
TSL
21.8%
62,221
5 dels
+2.5%
Khan
21.5%
61,331
5 dels
+9.3%
Defender
11.6%
33,285
3 dels
-2.7%
Negarir
11.4%
32,569
3 dels
+4.8%
Mothma
6.7%
19,073
0 dels
+0.3%
Total
285,916
23 dels
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
+/- final polling
Serduchka
36.0%
91,148
14 dels
+1.3%
McGriddles
26.6%
67,326
11 dels
+1.7%
Peanuts
17.5%
44,365
7 dels
+1.0%
Reckoner
10.3%
25,991
0 dels
-2.8%
Spire
9.6%
24,232
0 dels
+0.6%
Total
253,062
32 dels
Spoiler: Nevada
February 20th, 2016: Democratic Caucus
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
+/- final polling
Serduchka
42.0%
5,139
20 dels
+7.6%
Spire
25.6%
3,137
12 dels
-4.1%
Peanuts
22.7%
2,771
11 dels
+1.5%
McGriddles
6.3%
773
0 dels
-1.2%
Reckoner
3.4%
413
0 dels
-0.2%
Total
12,233
43 dels
February 23rd, 2016: Republican Caucus
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
+/- final polling
Abbott
37.8%
28,508
11 dels
+2.7%
Khan
16.7%
12,586
5 dels
+3.2%
Defender
15.7%
11,813
5 dels
+6.5%
TSL
15.1%
11,376
5 dels
-4.7%
Negarir
14.8%
11,199
4 dels
+5.7%
Total
75,482
43 dels
Spoiler: South Carolina
February 20th, 2016: Republican Primary
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
+/- final polling
Abbott
26.4%
195,570
50 dels
-11.5%
Mothma
26.1%
193,065
0 dels
+16.4%
Defender
19.2%
142,531
0 dels
+15.1%
TSL
10.7%
79,053
0 dels
-3.1%
Negarir
9.7%
71,578
0 dels
+0.2%
Khan
8.0%
59,084
0 dels
-1.4%
Total
740,881
50 dels
February 27th, 2016: Democratic Primary
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
+/- final polling
Reckoner
41.4%
152,448
29 dels
+35.2%
McGriddles
22.0%
81,745
15 dels
-2.1%
Serduchka
21.6%
80,115
15 dels
-2.5%
Peanuts
10.7%
39,488
0 dels
+0.7%
Spire
9.7%
17,108
0 dels
+0.1%
Total
370,904
59 dels
Spoiler: Vermont
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
+/- final polling
Khan
35.3%
77,437
9 dels
+1.8%
Negarir
27.5%
62,221
7 dels
+4.4%
TSL
14.4%
61,331
0 dels
+0.6%
Abbott
13.5%
33,285
0 dels
+4.4%
Defender
9.3%
32,569
0 dels
+5.2%
Total
61,756
16 dels
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
+/- final polling
Serduchka
60.3%
81,449
20 dels
+9.1%
Spire
19.2%
25,997
6 dels
-4.7%
McGriddles
8.4%
11,344
0 dels
-0.2%
Reckoner
7.4%
9,960
0 dels
+0.2%
Peanuts
4.8%
6,456
0 dels
-0.8%
Total
135,256
26 dels
Spoiler: Alaska
March 1st, 2016: Republican Caucus
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
+/- final polling
Abbott
34.7%
7,992
12 dels
+4.4%
Negarir
25.1%
5,781
9 dels
+3.0%
Defender
18.2%
4,187
7 dels
+2.4%
Khan
12.2%
2,806
0 dels
+4.2%
TSL
9.8%
2,244
0 dels
-1.0%
Total
23,010
28 dels
March 26th, 2016: Democratic Caucus
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
+/- final polling
Serduchka
56.5%
5,999
11 dels
+13.4%
Spire
43.5%
4,611
9 dels
+4.0%
Total
10,610
20 dels
Spoiler: Wyoming
March 1st, 2016: Republican Caucus
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
+/- final polling
Khan
30.5%
485
9 dels
+5.5%
Abbott
24.9%
396
7 dels
+1.6%
Negarir
23.0%
365
7 dels
-0.5%
TSL
12.9%
205
4 dels
+0.4%
Defender
8.7%
139
2 dels
+2.0%
Total
1,590
29 dels
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
+/- final polling
Serduchka
63.6%
178
11 dels
N/A
Spire
36.4%
102
7 dels
N/A
Total
280
18 dels
Spoiler: Arkansas
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
+/- final polling
Abbott
38.0%
155,962
19 dels
+8.9%
Negarir
23.9%
98,152
12 dels
-0.8%
Khan
17.5%
71,962
9 dels
+2.9%
Defender
11.8%
48,488
0 dels
-1.0%
TSL
8.8%
36,356
0 dels
+3.6%
Total
410,920
40 dels
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
+/- final polling
Reckoner
41.2%
90,967
17 dels
+9.2%
Spire
31.2%
68,901
13 dels
+3.4%
Serduchka
16.9%
37,337
7 dels
+0.1%
McGriddles
6.4%
14,253
0 dels
-0.4%
Peanuts
4.3%
9,562
0 dels
-1.3%
Total
221,020
26 dels
Spoiler: Oklahoma
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
+/- final polling
Khan
31.5%
144,651
17 dels
+8.2%
Abbott
29.3%
134,657
15 dels
+2.0%
Defender
21.3%
98,084
11 dels
+3.7%
TSL
9.7%
44,758
0 dels
-0.5%
Negarir
8.2%
37,772
0 dels
-2.1%
Total
459,922
43 dels
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
+/- final polling
Serduchka
38.9%
130.555
26 dels
+23.6%
McGriddles
24.7%
83,056
16 dels
+5.0%
Spire
14.8%
49,605
0 dels
-1.8%
Reckoner
10.9%
36,448
0 dels
+1.9%
Peanuts
10.8%
36,179
0 dels
-1.9%
Total
335,843
42 dels
Spoiler: Alabama
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
+/- final polling
Abbott
32.4%
278,617
21 dels
-0.9%
TSL
22.7%
195,098
15 dels
-0.5%
Khan
21.9%
188,697
14 dels
+2.1%
Negarir
15.8%
136,085
0 dels
1.1%
Defender
7.2%
62,155
0 dels
+5.1%
Total
860,652
50 dels
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
+/- final polling
Reckoner
31.8%
126,560
24 dels
+17.3%
Peanuts
30.8%
122,620
24 dels
+12.4%
McGriddles
15.5%
61,688
12 dels
-0.1%
Serduchka
13.2%
52,596
0 dels
-1.6%
Spire
8.7%
34,693
0 dels
-0.8%
Total
398,157
60 dels
Spoiler: Colorado
Candidate
Vote share
Delegates won
+/- final polling
TSL
23.2%
8 dels
+10.6%
Abbott
22.2%
8 dels
+7.4%
Khan
20.6%
8 dels
+1.1%
Defender
18.8%
7 dels
+11.1%
Negarir
15.2%
6 dels
-0.5%
Total
37 dels
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
+/- final polling
Reckoner
38.1%
47,093
36 dels
+24.5%
Serduchka
24.4%
30,162
23 dels
-2.2%
Spire
20.3%
25,100
19 dels
-0.1%
McGriddles
11.1%
13,651
0 dels
-1.0%
Peanuts
6.1%
7,502
0 dels
-1.1%
Total
123,508
78 dels
Spoiler: Tennessee
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
+/- final polling
Defender
36.3%
310,288
30 dels
+7.4%
Abbott
34.6%
295,88
28 dels
+7.4%
TSL
14.5%
124,194
0 dels
+0.2%
Khan
11.0%
93,897
0 dels
+0.8%
Negarir
3.7%
31,462
0 dels
-2.5%
Total
855,729
58 dels
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
+/- final polling
Serduchka
58.2%
216,700
56 dels
+0.7%
Reckoner
20.3%
75,556
19 dels
+1.4%
McGriddles
11.3%
42,196
0 dels
+1.4%
Spire
5.3%
19,607
0 dels
+-
Peanuts
4.9%
18,163
0 dels
+0.6%
Total
372,222
75 dels
Spoiler: Minnesota
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
+/- final polling
Khan
27.0%
30,819
10 dels
+5.9%
Abbott
25.0%
28,515
10 dels
+4.1%
TSL
21.5%
24,561
8 dels
+3.2%
Defender
16.1%
18,382
6 dels
+4.0%
Negarir
10.5%
11,968
4 dels
-2.0%
Total
114,245
58 dels
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
+/- final polling
Serduchka
55.5%
113,535
58 dels
+5.5%
Reckoner
18.0%
36,780
19 dels
+0.8%
Peanuts
16.0%
32,717
16 dels
-0.9%
McGriddles
7.6%
15,455
0 dels
+1.4%
Spire
3.0%
6,123
0 dels
-0.2%
Total
204,610
93 dels
Spoiler: Massachusetts
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
+/- final polling
Abbott
40.9%
260,861
17 dels
+3.9%
Khan
24.2%
154,396
10 dels
+4.4%
TSL
20.1%
127,901
9 dels
+1.4%
Defender
9.1%
58,002
4 dels
+2.0%
Negarir
5.7%
36,543
2 dels
+-
Total
637,703
42 dels
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
+/- final polling
Serduchka
38.8%
473,180
56 dels
+7.3%
Reckoner
22.6%
275,662
33 dels
-2.9%
Peanuts
17.8%
216,875
26 dels
+1.7%
McGriddles
13.1%
159,283
0 dels
+3.5%
Spire
7.8%
95,296
0 dels
-2.2%
Total
1,220,296
93 dels
Spoiler: Georgia
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
+/- final polling
Abbott
36.3%
470,113
30 dels
+4.5%
Negarir
35.1%
454,736
29 dels
+2.7%
Defender
20.3%
262,503
17 dels
+7.5%
TSL
6.0%
77,205
0 dels
-0.1%
Khan
2.4%
31,407
0 dels
-0.1%
Total
1,295,964
76 dels
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
+/- final polling
Serduchka
29.3%
224,370
41 dels
+10.2%
McGriddles
28.2%
215,746
39 dels
+5.8%
Peanuts
26.5%
202,703
37 dels
+3.2%
Reckoner
11.6%
88,848
0 dels
+4.4%
Spire
4.4%
33,699
0 dels
-1.3%
Total
765,366
117 dels
Spoiler: Virginia
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
+/- final polling
Abbott
39.0%
400,151
19 dels
+4.0%
Negarir
29.6%
303,559
15 dels
-0.4%
Khan
21.1%
216,352
10 dels
+3.1%
Defender
7.0%
71,890
3 dels
-0.9%
TSL
3.3%
33,500
2 dels
+0.2%
Total
1,025,452
49 dels
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
+/- final polling
Serduchka
50.1%
393,076
74 dels
+9.0%
Spire
22.7%
177,823
34 dels
+2.7%
Reckoner
13.4%
105,416
0 dels
+1.4%
Peanuts
8.0%
62,876
0 dels
+-
McGriddles
5.9%
45,940
0 dels
+3.6%
Total
785,041
108 dels
Spoiler: Texas
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
+/- final polling
Abbott
58.2%
1,650,639
155 dels
+19.3%
Defender
13.6%
385,439
0 dels
+0.9%
Negarir
11.7%
332,795
0 dels
-1.3%
TSL
10.4%
294,522
0 dels
-0.9%
Khan
6.1%
173,093
0 dels
+0.3%
Total
2,836,488
155 dels
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
+/- final polling
McGriddles
46.4%
665,690
166 dels
+30.5%
Serduchka
23.7%
340,096
85 dels
-15.4%
Reckoner
14.7%
211,269
0 dels
+0.7%
Peanuts
9.7%
139,293
0 dels
-0.2%
Spire
5.5%
79,547
0 dels
-0.2%
Total
1,435,895
251 dels
Spoiler: Kansas
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
+/- final polling
Negarir
36.4%
28,765
15 dels
+4.7%
Khan
19.8%
15,616
8 dels
+4.9%
Defender
19.7%
15,538
8 dels
+4.3%
Abbott
13.6%
10,718
5 dels
-1.5%
TSL
10.6%
8,341
4 dels
+0.8%
Total
78,978
40 dels
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
+/- final polling
Spire
27.0%
10,600
10 dels
-0.5%
Serduchka
24.2%
9,509
9 dels
+1.4%
Peanuts
16.3%
6,398
6 dels
+0.3%
McGriddles
16.3%
6,390
6 dels
+2.8%
Reckoner
16.1%
6,333
6 dels
+0.8%
Total
39,230
37 dels
Spoiler: Louisiana
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
+/- final polling
Negarir
27.1%
81,690
24 dels
+0.2%
Abbott
24.1%
72,704
22 dels
+1.0%
Khan
18.9%
56,894
0 dels
+3.2%
Defender
16.1%
48,585
0 dels
+6.3%
TSL
13.7%
41,368
0 dels
+1.7%
Total
301,241
46 dels
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
+/- final polling
Spire
33.7%
104,920
28 dels
+4.6%
McGriddles
20.2%
63,080
17 dels
+4.5%
Serduchka
17.0%
53,088
14 dels
-0.6%
Peanuts
14.8%
46,127
0 dels
+0.4%
Reckoner
14.3%
44,561
0 dels
-5.3%
Total
311,776
59 dels
Spoiler: Maine
March 5th, 2016: Republican Caucus
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
+/- final polling
Abbott
25.9%
4,832
6 dels
+6.4%
Negarir
24.0%
4,479
6 dels
+1.0%
Khan
23.7%
4,418
5 dels
+4.1%
Defender
13.5%
2,523
3 dels
+3.9%
TSL
12.8%
2,375
3 dels
+1.0%
Total
18,627
23 dels
March 6th, 2016: Democratic Caucus
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
+/- final polling
Serduchka
29.8%
1,035
12 dels
+0.9%
Spire
23.8%
824
10 dels
+0.7%
Peanuts
20.3%
704
8 dels
+2.9%
Reckoner
14.2%
491
0 dels
-2.8%
McGriddles
12.0%
415
0 dels
+0.2%
Total
3,469
30 dels
Spoiler: Kentucky
March 5th, 2016: Republican Caucus
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
+/- final polling
Negarir
28.6%
65,702
13 dels
-1.3%
Abbott
27.5%
63,209
13 dels
+5.6%
TSL
20.9%
47,922
10 dels
+2.4%
Khan
11.5%
26,493
5 dels
+2.7%
Defender
11.5%
26,303
5 dels
-0.7%
Total
229,669
46 dels
May 17th, 2016: Democratic Primary
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
+/- final polling
Serduchka
53.7%
244,120
32 dels
+15.4%
Spire
46.3%
210,448
28 dels
+0.9%
Total
454,568
60 dels
Spoiler: Nebraska
March 5th, 2016: Democratic Caucus
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
+/- final polling
Spire
28.9%
9,665
10 dels
-0.5%
Serduchka
26.7%
8,918
9 dels
+3.3%
Peanuts
16.8%
5,612
6 dels
+1.0%
McGriddles
15.0%
5,022
5 dels
+1.1%
Reckoner
12.7%
4,243
0 dels
-2.5%
Total
33,460
30 dels
May 10th, 2016: Republican Primary
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
+/- final polling
Negarir
59.8%
118,941
36 dels
+14.2%
Abbott
40.2%
80,047
0 dels
+5.7%
Total
198,988
36 dels
Spoiler: Puerto Rico
March 6th, 2016: Republican Primary
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
+/- final polling
Abbott
25.2%
9,752
12 dels
+6.7%
Negarir
22.9%
8,867
11 dels
-0.7%
TSL
19.8%
7,645
0 dels
+1.1%
Defender
17.6%
6,802
0 dels
+4.6%
Khan
14.6%
5,633
0 dels
+0.9%
Total
38,699
23 dels
June 5th, 2016: Democratic Primary
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
+/- final polling
Serduchka
53.9%
47,545
36 dels
+15.5%
Spire
46.1%
40.644
31 dels
+0.4%
Total
88,149
67 dels
Spoiler: Democrats Abroad
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
+/- final polling
Spire
29.8%
10,273
7 dels
+0.5%
Serduchka
26.1%
9,000
6 dels
+2.0%
Peanuts
15.6%
5,385
4 dels
-0.1%
McGriddles
14.7%
5,082
0 dels
-0.2%
Reckoner
13.8%
4,755
0 dels
+0.3%
Total
34,495
17 dels
Spoiler: Hawaii
March 8th, 2016: Republican Caucus
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
+/- final polling
Negarir
58.0%
7,764
11 dels
+28.4%
Abbott
42.0%
5,616
8 dels
+10.4%
Total
13,380
19 dels
March 26th, 2016: Democratic Caucus
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
+/- final polling
Serduchka
54.9%
19,607
19 dels
+12.7%
Spire
45.1%
16,109
16 dels
+3.4%
Total
35,716
35 dels
Spoiler: Idaho
March 8th, 2016: Republican Primary
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
+/- final polling
Negarir
51.0%
113,337
16 dels
+29.2%
Abbott
49.0%
108,883
16 dels
+16.9%
Total
222,220
32 dels
March 22nd, 2016: Democratic Caucus
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
+/- final polling
Serduchka
55.6%
13,290
15 dels
+16.5%
Spire
44.4%
10,594
12 dels
-0.7%
Total
23,884
27 dels
Spoiler: Mississippi
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
+/- final polling
Negarir
69.7%
289,963
28 dels
+36.0%
Abbott
30.3%
126,307
12 dels
+9.1%
Total
416,270
40 dels
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
+/- final polling
Peanuts
30.3%
68,725
15 dels
+5.3%
Spire
23.7%
53,743
11 dels
+2.7%
Reckoner
17.2%
38,993
8 dels
-1.3%
Serduchka
15.3%
34,800
7 dels
-1.8%
McGriddles
13.6%
30,903
0 dels
+2.8%
Total
227,164
41 dels
Spoiler: Michigan
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
+/- final polling
Negarir
57.9%
765,719
34 dels
+31.6%
Abbott
42.1%
557,870
25 dels
+17.5%
Total
1,323,589
59 dels
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
+/- final polling
Reckoner
26.3%
316,661
45 dels
-1.0%
Serduchka
22.8%
274,563
39 dels
+1.1%
Spire
19.0%
229,650
32 dels
+3.0%
Peanuts
18.5%
227,827
31 dels
+1.9%
McGriddles
13.4%
161,851
0 dels
-0.6%
Total
1,205,552
147 dels
Spoiler: U.S. Virgin Islands
March 10th, 2016: Republican Caucus
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
+/- final polling
Negarir
57.8%
940
5 dels
+21.9%
Abbott
42.2%
687
4 dels
+7.0%
Total
1,627
9 dels
June 4th, 2016: Democratic Caucus
Spoiler: US Virgin Islands
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
+/- final polling
Serduchka
67.8%
1,026
8 dels
+19.5%
Spire
32.2%
488
4 dels
-1.6%
Total
1,514
12 dels
Spoiler: Washington, D.C.
March 12th, 2016: Republican Primary
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
+/- final polling
Negarir
59.7%
1,696
11 dels
+18.9%
Abbott
40.3%
1,143
8 dels
+6.3%
Total
2,839
19 dels
June 14th, 2016: Democratic Primary
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
Serduchka
100%
98,398
46 dels
Total
98,398
46 dels
Spoiler: Guam
March 12th, 2016: Republican Caucus
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
+/- final polling
Negarir
55.6%
5
5 dels
+17.5%
Abbott
44.4%
4
4 dels
+5.3%
Total
9
9 dels
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
+/- final polling
Serduchka
62.7%
818
8 dels
N/A
Spire
37.3%
487
4 dels
N/A
Total
1,305
12 dels
Spoiler: Northern Mariana Islands
March 12th, 2016: Democratic Caucus
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
+/- final polling
Serduchka
41.3%
78
4 dels
+12.4%
Spire
33.9%
64
4 dels
-1.1%
Reckoner
24.9%
47
3 dels
-0.6%
Total
189
11 dels
March 15th, 2016: Republican Caucus
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
+/- final polling
Negarir
71.3%
336
9 dels
+17.3%
Abbott
28.7%
135
0 dels
+5.9%
Total
471
9 dels
Spoiler: American Samoa
March 16th, 2016: Democratic Caucus
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
+/- final polling
Serduchka
46.4%
110
5 dels
+13.9%
Spire
27.4%
65
3 dels
-1.8%
Reckoner
26.2%
62
3 dels
-0.3%
Total
237
11 dels
March 22nd, 2016: Republican Caucus
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
+/- final polling
Negarir
55.5%
5
5 dels
+19.6%
Abbott
44.4%
4
4 dels
+7.5%
Total
9
9 dels
Spoiler: Missouri
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
+/- final polling
Negarir
59.7%
560,926
52 dels
+22.6%
Abbott
40.3%
378,344
0 dels
+8.1%
Total
939,270
52 dels
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
+/- final polling
Serduchka
44.5%
280,085
38 dels
+14.3%
Spire
30.1%
189,357
25 dels
-1.1%
Reckoner
25.4%
159,983
21 dels
+0.9%
Total
629,425
84 dels
Spoiler: Ohio
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
+/- final polling
Negarir
66.4%
1,321,249
66 dels
+18.2%
Abbott
33.6%
667,711
0 dels
+2.7%
Total
1,988,960
66 dels
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
+/- final polling
Serduchka
43.6%
541,806
70 dels
+11.4%
Spire
37.4%
464,703
60 dels
+4.2%
Reckoner
18.9%
234,969
35 dels
+1.6%
Total
1,241,478
160 dels
Spoiler: North Carolina
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
+/- final polling
Negarir
63.5%
729,508
46 dels
+19.8%
Abbott
36.5%
420,022
26 dels
+2.0%
Total
1,149,530
72 dels
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
+/- final polling
Serduchka
49.2%
562,451
59 dels
+12.8%
Spire
25.7%
293,971
31 dels
+1.0%
Reckoner
25.1%
286,494
30 dels
-0.9%
Total
1,142,916
120 dels
Spoiler: Illinois
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
+/- final polling
Negarir
59.7%
865,562
69 dels
+20.0%
Abbott
40.3%
584,186
0 dels
+6.5%
Total
1,449,748
69 dels
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
+/- final polling
Serduchka
38.2%
786,310
70 dels
+13.9%
Spire
36.9%
758,820
68 dels
-1.2%
Reckoner
24.8%
510,917
45 dels
+2.4%
Total
2,056,047
183 dels
Spoiler: Florida
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
+/- final polling
Negarir
67.7%
1,598,242
99 dels
+23.8%
Abbott
32.3%
763,563
0 dels
+6.4%
Total
2,361,805
99 dels
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
+/- final polling
Serduchka
43.5%
743,149
107 dels
+12.5%
Spire
36.2%
619,387
90 dels
+0.2%
Reckoner
20.3%
346,647
50 dels
+2.6%
Total
1,709,183
247 dels
Spoiler: Arizona
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
+/- final polling
Negarir
52.6%
328,377
58 dels
+11.3%
Abbott
47.4%
295,662
0 dels
+9.1%
Total
624,039
58 dels
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
+/- final polling
Serduchka
60.7%
283,184
52 dels
+18.1%
Spire
39.3%
183,051
33 dels
-2.3%
Total
466,235
85 dels
Spoiler: Utah
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
+/- final polling
Negarir
62.3%
110,374
25 dels
+17.4%
Abbott
37.7%
66,829
15 dels
+8.0%
Total
177,203
40 dels
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
+/- final polling
Spire
54.0%
42,977
20 dels
+14.8%
Serduchka
46.0%
36,549
17 dels
+9.1%
Total
79,526
37 dels
Spoiler: Washington
March 26th, 2016: Democratic Caucus
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
+/- final polling
Serduchka
63.0%
16,587
74 dels
+17.4%
Spire
37.0%
9,758
44 dels
+0.2%
Total
26,345
118 dels
May 24th, 2016: Republican Primary
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
+/- final polling
Negarir
64.9%
391,328
29 dels
+11.1%
Abbott
35.1%
211,670
15 dels
+4.8%
Total
602,998
44 dels
Spoiler: North Dakota
April 1st, 2016: Republican Caucus
Candidate
Vote share
Delegates won
+/- final polling
Negarir
71.4%
20 dels
+11.8%
Abbott
28.6%
8 dels
+4.9%
Total
28 dels
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
+/- final polling
Serduchka
54.8%
216
13 dels
+14.4%
Spire
45.2%
178
10 dels
+0.7%
Total
394
23 dels
Spoiler: Wisconsin
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
+/- final polling
Negarir
60.4%
667,709
42 dels
+16.0%
Abbott
39.6%
438,235
0 dels
+6.8%
Total
1,105,944
42 dels
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
+/- final polling
Serduchka
59.6%
600,885
57 dels
+14.8%
Spire
40.4%
406,715
39 dels
-2.9%
Total
1,007,600
96 dels
Spoiler: New York
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
+/- final polling
Negarir
73.0%
683,947
69 dels
+28.2%
Abbott
27.0%
252,580
26 dels
+9.6%
Total
936,527
95 dels
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
+/- final polling
Serduchka
61.3%
1,208,735
178 dels
+17.4%
Spire
38.7%
762,165
113 dels
-3.1%
Total
1,970,900
291 dels
Spoiler: Delaware
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
+/- final polling
Negarir
73.5%
51,394
16 dels
+25.9%
Abbott
26.5%
18,498
0 dels
+5.5%
Total
69,892
16 dels
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
+/- final polling
Serduchka
67.3%
63,003
22 dels
+14.4%
Spire
32.7%
30,637
10 dels
+2.7%
Total
93,640
32 dels
Spoiler: Rhode Island
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
+/- final polling
Negarir
77.0%
48,010
15 dels
+17.7%
Abbott
23.0%
14,321
4 dels
+9.6%
Total
62,331
19 dels
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
+/- final polling
Serduchka
70.7%
86,601
23 dels
+15.5%
Spire
29.3%
35,857
10 dels
+0.1%
Total
122,458
33 dels
Spoiler: Connecticut
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
+/- final polling
Negarir
69.6%
148,557
28 dels
+17.9%
Abbott
30.4%
64,916
0 dels
+7.3%
Total
213,493
28 dels
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
+/- final polling
Serduchka
52.6%
172,651
37 dels
+12.1%
Spire
47.4%
155,604
34 dels
+0.8%
Total
328,255
71 dels
Spoiler: Maryland
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
+/- final polling
Abbott
58.3%
267,455
38 dels
+38.0%
Negarir
41.7%
191,661
0 dels
+8.0%
Total
459,066
38 dels
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
+/- final polling
Serduchka
69.6%
638,293
83 dels
+16.7%
Spire
30.4%
278,470
36 dels
-2.1%
Total
916,763
119 dels
Spoiler: Pennsylvania
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
+/- final polling
Negarir
75.8%
1,209,359
71 dels
+21.7%
Abbott
24.2%
385,116
0 dels
+4.2%
Total
1,594,475
71 dels
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
+/- final polling
Serduchka
55.1%
926,913
115 dels
+12.6%
Spire
44.9%
754,514
94 dels
+3.1%
Total
1,681,427
209 dels
Spoiler: Indiana
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
+/- final polling
Negarir
73.0%
810,881
57 dels
+16.0%
Abbott
27.0%
299,662
0 dels
+4.7%
Total
1,110,543
57 dels
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
+/- final polling
Serduchka
64.9%
414,345
60 dels
+15.5%
Spire
35.1%
224,303
32 dels
-0.2%
Total
638,648
92 dels
Spoiler: West Virginia
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
+/- final polling
Negarir
57.2%
116,778
34 dels
+10.9%
Abbott
42.8%
87,283
0 dels
+9.1%
Total
204,061
34 dels
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
+/- final polling
Serduchka
63.7%
154,525
24 dels
+13.6%
Spire
36.3%
88,014
13 dels
+0.9%
Total
242,539
37 dels
Spoiler: Oregon
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
+/- final polling
Negarir
58.2%
230,967
16 dels
+7.5%
Abbott
41.4%
162,953
12 dels
+9.0%
Total
393,920
28 dels
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
+/- final polling
Serduchka
69.3%
444,496
51 dels
+18.6%
Spire
30.7%
197,099
23 dels
-2.3%
Total
641,595
74 dels
Spoiler: Montana
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
+/- final polling
Negarir
68.6%
107,591
27 dels
+8.7%
Abbott
31.4%
49,297
0 dels
+7.5%
Total
156,888
28 dels
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
+/- final polling
Serduchka
79.9%
101,147
22 dels
+18.5%
Spire
20.1%
25,492
5 dels
-0.3%
Total
126,639
27 dels
Spoiler: South Dakota
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
+/- final polling
Negarir
69.7%
46,593
29 dels
+14.2%
Abbott
30.3%
20,286
0 dels
+6.2%
Total
66,879
29 dels
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
+/- final polling
Serduchka
65.7%
34,820
16 dels
+12.8%
Spire
34.3%
18,183
9 dels
+0.8%
Total
53,003
25 dels
Spoiler: New Mexico
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
+/- final polling
Negarir
74.6%
78,007
18 dels
+23.9%
Abbott
25.4%
26,620
6 dels
+0.7%
Total
104,627
24 dels
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
+/- final polling
Serduchka
69.1%
149,289
30 dels
+15.5%
Spire
30.9%
66,786
13 dels
+1.3%
Total
216,075
43 dels
Spoiler: New Jersey
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
+/- final polling
Negarir
73.3%
324,731
51 dels
+22.1%
Abbott
26.7%
118,331
0 dels
+4.1%
Total
443,062
51 dels
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
+/- final polling
Serduchka
67.5%
592,791
96 dels
+17.6%
Spire
32.5%
284,924
46 dels
-2.6%
Total
877,715
142 dels
Spoiler: California
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
+/- final polling
Negarir
68.9%
1,534,308
172 dels
+19.6%
Abbott
31.1%
692,884
0 dels
+3.3%
Total
2,227,192
172 dels
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
Serduchka
68.6%
3,550,000
377 dels
Spire
31.4%
1,623,298
173 dels
Total
5,173,298
550 dels
Spoiler: Progressive Results
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
Negarir
48.9%
15,251,093
1,440 dels
Abbott
36.6%
11,397,141
710 dels
Khan
4.5%
1,389,345
127 dels
Defender
5.2%
1,625,703
113 dels
TSL
4.0%
1,255,983
77 dels
Mothma
0.8%
242,511
5 dels
Dels left
0 dels
Total
31,161,776
2,472 dels
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
Serduchka
50.6%
15,585,216
2,528 dels
Spire
28.9%
8,897,080
1,341 dels
Reckoner
10.2%
3,133,314
385 dels
McGriddles
5.9%
1,824,899
313 dels
Peanuts
4.5%
1,376,113
198 dels
Dels left
0 dels
Total
30,718,224
4,765 dels
Italics indicate a withdrawn candidate. They no longer receive any votes, but retain some vote share in polling until the day of a primary or caucus, and retain their delegates should the relevant convention be contested.
Green delegate counts indicate a clinched nomination.
GENERAL ELECTION
When the game concludes, on November 8th game-time, state-by-state returns will be here!
Last edited by Drench on Mon Apr 03, 2017 5:34 am, edited 25 times in total.
Post
Post #3 (isolation #3) » Sat Jan 07, 2017 12:07 am
Postby Drench »
THE CANDIDATES
The Democrats
Spoiler: More Information about Mr. Reckoner
Submitted by xRECKONERx
A crazy fucking liberal
Spoiler: More Information about Mr. Spire
Submitted by inspiratieloos
Apparently a sentient piece of glass... Presumably not any worse than the other candidates.
The Republicans
Spoiler: More Information about Mr. Arir
Submitted by Cephrir
Cephrir: Not a good presidential candidate. His evil twin and opposite? Let's find out!
Spoiler: More Information about The Hon. Abbott MP
Submitted by N
asshole
Spoiler: More Information about "Lady" Tilden-St. Leonard
Submitted by AniX
ormer famous socialite/general celebrity. Most famous for being famous for basically nothing (She happens to just weasel her way into the right place at the right time with the right famous people including being Taylor Squad) yet avoiding the classic train wreck trap most people of that breed fall into. Most of the news on her detailed how she got this friend clean or brought that drunk friend home before they could flash the paparazzi. It didn't stop the media from trying though. Her war with them ended up with nothing worse than the fact since her quickie marriage and divorce like a decade and a half ago, nobody has seen her so much as look at another boy. Ever the opportunists, they decided to brand her the “Dawn the Untouchable”, hoping to sell papers playing off her lack of scandals as well as that infamous lack of boyfriends. That quickie marriage (and divorce) was to a very rich investment banker (and son of a media mogul) and Dawn was smart enough with her money to let other people handle it. Upon the death of her father, she found some papers in her possession that made her curious and subsequently had her linage traced, which revealed she was the oldest living descendant of Samuel J. Tilden, America's would-be 19th President until it was stolen from under him. She now rises (with a new Tilden hyphenated into her name) to demand to serve the term owed to her blood ancestor by the customary claim of Widow's Succession while also campaigning on a platform that democracy has failed and only the creation of a royalty can prevent such tragedies in the future, strengthening (in her opinion) her position by marrying a blood descendant of George Washington, who she is proud to say she is having a child with (via a gestational surrogate). Her plan is simple: She will serve Samuel J. Tilden's term and use it to advocate for a restructuring of the government such that a royal family will be established with her as that Monarch and her son (Blood of Washington himself!) succeeding her. America needs to pay its debt and give a Tilden the White House. America needs to do its duty to itself and let a monarch do what democracy cannot.
*No slogan received.
Last edited by Drench on Sat Jan 07, 2017 4:28 am, edited 2 times in total.
Post
Post #4 (isolation #4) » Sat Jan 07, 2017 12:55 am
Postby Drench »
first post up....in a few hours??? :O
i'll be posting one week's worth of action at a time, starting with september 30th, 2015. the candidates start on basically equal footing, being a few decimals within each other, but that will change. i'll also post screenshots of the map and where people might be picking up delegates and who's got the momentum; be warned that evan mcmullin's face is in them because i gotta play as someone in order to let the AI do their thing, although i've forced him to only have ballot access in DC so it shouldn't affect the result. he also won't be doing anything i'm literally just clicking next turn and moving on.
if at any time you've got any questions about any candidate's anything, i probably have the answer and can tell you. this includes: finances, ground game, advertising (to an extent), momentum, campaign themes and platforms, endorsement progress, campaign strength--you get the drift.
anyway yeah if you think i should be putting anything in the opening posts lmk
Post
Post #6 (isolation #5) » Sat Jan 07, 2017 2:26 am
Postby Drench »
Spoiler: A Sample Practice Post from an Alternate Timeline
The Week of September 30th, 2015
Headlines
Thursday's papers: Russia has begun airstrikes in Syria.
Abbott
has hit the ground running, barnstorming in Massachusetts and giving a keynote speech launching his campaign and boasting of his leadership potential, having both led a party before and been sacked from leading a party before.
Friday: There has been a shooting in Roseburg, Oregon; gun control is dominating the news. Various candidates leap onto the Sunday and talk shows to capitalize (obviously!!)--
Abbott
was apparently really good on Colbert, and
D3f
shined on Fox News Sunday. Unfortunately, it's not all good news--
Abbott
being first out the gate to campaign has led to a star-studded cast slamming him on the cable networks, particularly
Tilden-St. Leonard
(TSL from now on because fuck off) and
Reckoner
. Elsewhere,
Peanuts
slammed
Serduchka
for her dangerous plan to leave health care exactly as it is, all Obama-fied.
Saturday:
Serduchka
struck back on Colbert, who's just having a ball with the politics nowadays, boasting of her health care plan.
Sunday: The Obama Administration bombs a Doctors Without Borders hospital in Syria.
Spire
appears on Fox News Sunday as well, because apparently it's on every day, and makes sure to point out
Negarir's
claim that
Negarir
was a terrible leader whilst barnstorming in Oklahoma.
TSL
is the first to hit the ground in the pivotal caucus state of Iowa, while those Russian strikes are already out of the news.
Monday: In the general election,
Democrats
and
Republicans
are even in the polls!
Khan
hopes to bury both parties though, with a stirring and well-received speech on his leadership credentials.
Negarir
tries to claw back some face on yet another episode of Fox News Sunday, although questions are already being asked about the negative tone of his campaign. And
Abbott
, icon and legend of politics, compares Social Security to sex work. People are very much not amused.
Tuesday: The TPP is finalized in the last round of talks, although whether the US will ratify it is another question.
Spire
puts forward his policy on government spending, otherwise known as "stay exactly the same", which people seem to like. Because apparently there is not enough news,
TSL
is the latest to go through the negative campaign ringer, but will anyone notice when
Peanuts
is being accused of the exact same thing????
The
Democratic
debate is in seven days.
Wednesday:
McGriddles
, an honest to god Libertarian, went on Rachel Maddow and it was actually good. Eat your heart out, Weld.
TSL
appears on the exact same fucking episode and also does well, so good job everyone. Elsewhere,
Khan
tries to push the line that
TSL
is a negative nancy, but it's not really taking.
The Crystal Ball
Larry Sabato has ranked you all in terms of who's going to win the nomination (NOT WHO'S CURRENTLY WINNING!!!!) and here's what he thinks.
The Republicans
1. Defender
2. Negarir
3. Abbott
4. TSL
5. Mothma
Defender's polling (see below) looks like it has room to grow. The endorsement primary is clearly favouring him and Abbott. But Negarir's running a tight ship, and he's a good candidate. TSL's platform is hurting her, and Mothma is just there.
The Democrats
1. Serduchka
2. Peanuts
3. Spire
4. Reckoner
Serduchka's leaped to the lead in part off her strong endorsement game and close skewing to the Democratic platform. Reckoner's campaign is in good shape, but the candidate himself is a different story. Spire is the exact opposite. But nobody's drowning: barely 25 points between first and fourth, in the Crystal Ball's methodology.
The Libertarians
1. Khan
2. McGriddles
It's basically a tie. Both platforms are highly anti-libertarian, but nobody else's gonna run so what are the voters gonna do about it? Khan's campaign is in better shape, but Sabato thinks it won't sustain his growth in the polls.
These rankings occur semi-regularly get hype.
Week in Review
News Power:
Khan
+6,
Spire
+6,
Mothma
+5,
Defender
+3,
Abbott
-3,
Serduchka
+2,
Tilden-St. Leonard
-2,
McGriddles
+2,
Peanuts
+-,
Negarir
+-.
Ads
Negarir
> completed ad > United States >
Negarir
/Experience.
Abbott
> completed ad > United States >
Abbott
/Experience.
Serduchka
> completed ad > United States >
Serduchka
/Health Care.
Spire
> completed ad > United States >
Spire
/Experience.
Peanuts
> completed ad > United States >
Peanuts
/Role of Government.
Khan
> completed ad > United States >
Khan
/Leadership.
Reckoner
> completed ad > United States >
Reckoner
/Government Spending.
McGriddles
> completed ad > United States >
McGriddles
/Military Intervention
REPUBLICANS
the map is color coded 4 ur convenience; the delegates are on the bottom; the polling is on the right
DEMOCRATS
LIBERTARIANS
Last edited by Drench on Sat Jan 07, 2017 4:31 am, edited 6 times in total.
Post
Post #9 (isolation #7) » Sat Jan 07, 2017 3:51 am
Postby Drench »
they indeed, do not
i would have to restart but i can do that if we just take the first post as like, a practice round or something
i'd probably shunt majiffy onto one of the majors as well just because one person in a primary is boring
Post
Post #12 (isolation #9) » Sat Jan 07, 2017 5:10 am
Postby Drench »
The Week of September 30th, 2015
(for real this time)
124 days until Iowa
132 days until New Hampshire
405 days until the Presidential Election
FYI: so this is an entirely new game, but like, if your candidate's well designed, you're gonna do well, so leave me alone
Headlines
The papers are released each day in the morning, and describe what happened the previous day. The first day of the cycle is a Wednesday, and the last a Tuesday, but the first newspapers are Thursday's, and the last Wednesday's.
Thursday's papers:
The primary election begins in earnest with Russia commencing airstrikes in Syria. So that's really great. The War on Terror is big in the news, which is probably why
Negarir
gives a soaring speech condemning the Iran Deal. It's well received, and manages to dwarf slightly the incredible pop concert held on
Reckoner's
behalf. Pro-choice politics and music: a combination.
Friday:
After one big piece of news, another: there's been a shooting in Roseburg, Oregon, driving Gun Control into the news.
Reckoner
, perhaps a bit dazed from meeting the stars, stumbles on his leadership credentials on On The Record. That Iran speech is still making (tiny) waves.
Saturday:
Defender
wants everyone to know that he is making BANK today, after holding a successful fundraiser at which he spoke on leadership.
Khan
makes a "good impression" on Jimmy Fallon, which I assume means he let Fallon corpse for ten minutes and then did a lip sync.
McGriddles
tells Massachusetts that spending money is good, and Massachusetts cheers.
Sunday:
The Obama Administration bombs a Doctors Without Borders hospital in Afghanistan. I know last time I said Syria, but I was wrong. Finally, other candidates decide to use the weekend to get going, and it's chaos:
Mothma
decries big government, successfully;
Serduchka
, a Democrat, goes on the O'Reilly Factor and learns why you don't go on the O'Reilly Factor as a Democrat;
Negarir
follows up the amazing Iran thing with claiming corruption helps government work which is politely described as a gaffe; and
Khan
keeps it going with some light-hearted neoliberal banter on Colbert.
Reckoner
manages to draw a crowd for the fascinating topic of defense spending, but it doesn't make a huge impact.
Monday:
Khan
hates unions, and his audiences love that.
Mothma
sees all this stuff about Republicans not liking big government and decides to have a go, with some well-received results.
Abbott
is raking in the dough, fundraiser-style, and did we mention that the
Republicans
and
Democrats
are dead-even in the general election polls? It's anyone's game.
Tuesday:
Maybe it'll be a game-changer, maybe not: the Trans-Pacific Partnership was finalized and agreement reached, with free trade being a hot button issue as a result.
Reckoner
does not get the memo and decides to share with the class that the government should cut spending on non-essential things, and then fails to share with the class what specifically he meant.
Mothma
breaks this campaign's attack cherry by slamming
Abbott
as a warmonger, and it impacts...just.
Serduchka's
O'Reilly thing is still being played three times a day on CNN, at least.
The first Democratic primary debate is in a week.
Wednesday:
Reckoner
tries to seize the narrative by holding a gangbusters fundraiser, and it nearly works, except, during that,
Peanuts
totally went on every single news channel and rubbed salt in the gaffe-y wound. But, turns out,
Reckoner
is very good on energy policy. Thanks, Meet The Press. Elsewhere,
Khan
shares a surprisingly moderate and resonant vision of immigration policy, in between that pop concert he scored on the basis of his tax policy.
Defender
doesn't like the Iran deal, and Chris Matthews fails to bite his head off, which counts as a win. Week one was Too Much.
The Crystal Ball
Every now and then, Larry Sabato fires up his Crystal Ball and predicts who he thinks has the best chance of taking the nomination. Tag yourselves.
Khan's platform isn't actually that great for this crowd, but he's got room to grow in the polls and a whole bunch of potential endorsements creeping up. His campaign hires are also top notch. But there's so little daylight between him and second, and virtually nothing at all between second and fifth, that it's anyone's game. Mothma's being dragged down not by the platform, which is discordant but not overly so, but just her polling. If that improves, who knows?
This field is very close. Spire's hauling in the endorsements, potentially; Peanuts' polling is very promising; Reckoner's campaign hires are the best of the lot; McGriddles is flush with cash; and Serduchka's platform fits the electorate best. Truly, it's anyone's game.
Week in Review
The news cycle strength is how good or bad your media was for the week, if you had any media at all. The ads just tell you who's producing what, and what's being targeted in each. The full picture has basically everything that happened, but unformatted, so you can cry while you read it.
Spoiler: News cycle strength
News Power:
Khan +19
,
Serduchka -9
,
Mothma +7
,
Defender +4
,
Reckoner -2
,
Abbott +2
,
McGriddles +1
,
Peanuts +1
,
Negarir -1
.
Spoiler: Ads
Tilden-St. Leonard
> completed ad > United States >
Tilden-St. Leonard
/Health Care.
Negarir
> completed ad > United States >
Negarir
/Military Intervention.
Mothma
> completed ad > United States >
Mothma
/Military Intervention.
Khan
> completed ad > United States >
Khan
/Experience.
Serduchka
> completed ad > United States >
Serduchka
/Tax Rates.
Reckoner
> completed ad > United States >
Reckoner
/Immigration.
Spire
> completed ad > United States >
Spire
/Immigration.
Peanuts
> completed ad > United States >
Peanuts
/Immigration.
Spoiler: The rest
Event "Russia Begins Airstrikes in Syria!" has occurred.
Event replenishes speeches for War on Terror issue.
Event caused a momentum change of +0.4 for Tilden-St. Leonard's campaign.
Event caused a momentum change of +1.7 for Negarir's campaign.
Event caused a momentum change of +1.6 for Defender's campaign.
Event caused a momentum change of +2 for Abbott's campaign.
Event caused a momentum change of +2 for Khan's campaign.
Event caused a momentum change of +0.5 for McMullin's campaign.
New endorsers available > United States > The Heritage Foundation, FreedomWorks, Tea Party Express, Ann Coulter, Fmr. Gov. Sarah Palin, Bill Maher, George Soros, Iowa > The Heritage Foundation, Americans for Tax Reform, FreedomWorks, Tea Party Express, Ann Coulter, South Carolina > Rep. Trey Gowdy.
Event "Shooting in Roseburg, Oregon" has occurred.
Event increases Gun Control profile by 1 to Medium, speeches replenished.
Event caused a momentum change of +1.5 for Serduchka's campaign.
Event caused a momentum change of +1.4 for Reckoner's campaign.
Event caused a momentum change of +1.5 for Peanuts's campaign.
Mothma receives permanent issue bonus from policy speech on the Role of Government issue.
Event "U.S. Forces Bomb Doctors Without Borders in Afghanistan" has occurred.
Event replenishes speeches for War on Terror issue.
Event caused a momentum change of -0.1 for Tilden-St. Leonard's campaign.
Event caused a momentum change of -1.7 for Negarir's campaign.
Event caused a momentum change of -1.5 for Mothma's campaign.
Event caused a momentum change of -1.9 for Defender's campaign.
Event caused a momentum change of -2 for Abbott's campaign.
Event caused a momentum change of -2 for Khan's campaign.
Event caused a momentum change of -0.2 for McMullin's campaign.
Event "Trans-Pacific Partnership Trade Agreement Reached!" has occurred.
Event increases Free Trade profile by 1 to High, speeches replenished.
Increasing momentum:
Peanuts
,
Khan
,
Abbott
Decreasing momentum:
Serduchka
,
Reckoner
,
Negarir
MAPS
Ignore McMullin. Leaders of each state are colour-coded; white states means it's too close to call. The percentage list on the right-hand side is the popular vote; the line down the bottom are PROJECTED delegates. Once delegates start being earned, that will be added separately.
REPUBLICANS
DEMOCRATS
Next time, on
Survivor!
this thing!:
Can Khan keep it up? Will Serduchka ever recover? The answer is no and yes respectively because there's still like four months to go before Iowa, but there's a Democratic debate and it's gonna shake things up probably.
Post
Post #13 (isolation #10) » Sat Jan 07, 2017 5:20 am
Postby Drench »
i'm gonna do one more b4 i go to bed because heck ya debates but like, lmk if anything else should be a regular part of updates because i'm kinda winging it in terms of important things you'd expect to know about a campaign
Post
Post #16 (isolation #11) » Sat Jan 07, 2017 6:15 am
Postby Drench »
The Week of October 7th
117 days until Iowa
125 days until New Hampshire
398 days until the Presidential Election
I can't believe we haven't had a single scandal yet so here's hoping. I set these AIs on Hard for a reason.
Headlines
The papers are released each day in the morning, and describe what happened the previous day. The first day of the cycle is a Wednesday, and the last a Tuesday, but the first newspapers are Thursday's, and the last Wednesday's.
Thursday's papers:
Peanuts
and
Reckoner
both appeared and did well on bleeding heart liberal hippie yuppie city slicker program The Late Show with Stephen Colbert, but
Reckoner
went one step further and nailed it on Meet the Press. By talking about energy again, but he nailed it.
Khan
continues to ride high, nailing (lot of nailing going on) the presentation of his calm immigration policy, interspersed with the solemn belief that Iran must be destroyed immediately. And
Defender
was not having any of it from Mothma, hitting her where it hurts: health care. She would need a burn unit, but Mothma's government health care plan is to abolish all of it, so there's that.
Friday:
Peanuts
tried to frame his campaign today as one of leadership, and it certainly did something, although we're not quite sure what. Shadows Were Cast on
Reckoner's
campaign for perhaps being too negative, whilst
McGriddles
and Rachel Maddow got along just fine. The pop stars just kept coming, this time serenading
Mothma's
education policy, whilst everyone (ESPECIALLY
TSL
) tried to bury
Reckoner's
good Colbert appearance...and failed! Streisand Effect, indeed. Meanwhile, protestors disturbed a
Peanuts
event, as well as the event of one of
Spire's
surrogates.
Saturday:
Reckoner
keeps making news, but this time for the wrong reasons, being unable to name the top marginal tax rate when prompted. But, his Virginia barnstorm did have a lot of people genuinely excited about government spending policy, so there's that.
Spire
outlined his approach to Iran (i.e. fobbing them off to the UN), to mixed results.
TSL's
one-sided war against
Reckoner
spilled some blood with the
Reckoner
-is-negative spin sticking (albeit with
Abbott
doing the actual damage), whilst a day later,
Peanuts'
leadership speech was receiving more and more negative reviews at the hands of
Serduchka's
spin doctors. Speaking of
Serduchka
, she was in Colorado talking about tax rates. Good for her.
Sunday:
A suicide bomber took a hundred lives and injured 400 more in Turkey, but
Negarir's
fundraising prowess is above the fold on A1 so.
TSL
finally got some coverage in Wyoming with the positive reception of her moderate gun stance.
McGriddles
took up the
Republican
campaign* against
Reckoner
, hitting him on the tax rate thing and making a good job of it. Protestors had a go at
Mothma, Khan,
and
TSL
events, with little effect.
*I literally just checked and it's not like all the Republicans hate Reck any more than they do the other Democrats; they just keep hitting him for some reason. Maybe it's his face.
Monday:
Columbus Day triggered no political debate. Haha just kidding of course it did. But while that happened,
Neganir
did well on Jimmy Fallon,
Spire
passionately outlined his vision for universal health care, and
Reckoner
both nailed Meet The Press (again), and returned fire, slamming
McGriddles'
isolationist military policy. We hope he realizes he has to win the primary first soon.
Tuesday:
Another day, another candidate slam dunking Meet The Press. Today's winner is
Khan
, who loves to invade countries.
Spire's
quiet invasion of the front page continued with a good performance on Colbert, while
Neganir
gave a policy speech outlining his government spending position, which as far as we know amounts to "don't".
Where to start with this debate? It was clear that one natural candidate came to play, three more came to try (and fail), and one didn't come at all. Maybe we should've seen
McGriddles'
complete non-event of a performance coming, given his low debating experience. But his claim of improving health outcomes in Augusta (the only thing he had to lean on) was lost amidst the fireworks happening up top, along with
Peanuts'
more creative (yet still oddly acceptable) claim of being good-looking and thus qualified. True,
Reckoner
had a lot to do with the spectacle--shooting
McGriddles'
policy (the Augusta one) down before it even got in the air, and humiliating the latter in the process--but it was
Serduchka's
fierce and at-times overly-aggressive attacks on
Spire
that may have been the game-changer we've been waiting for. Nobody expected
Serduchka
to act the attack dog, but she did, and it didn't suit, with her accusations of
Spire's
policy mendacity falling flat. It wasn't even needed--both
Reckoner
and
Serduchka
were otherwise competent, delivering answers as expected, if without flair and precision. It was, in the end, that contrast that helped
Spire
to a commanding win--a win that didn't need
Serduchka
, but certainly would use her help anyway.
Spire
was calm, confident, knowledgeable, prepared, and charismatic; in amongst the rest of them, he stood out. It was a thumping, a true blowout, and it gets you wondering: will the other four candidates wise up to avoid being embarrassed again?
triumped in the debate. However, we've got bigger fish to fry, in the form of leaked memos showing
Defender
very clearly changing positions on nearly everything he believes in not through ~evolution~, but for political expediency. It's a
massive scandal
(six points, to be exact, which is the biggest news story since game start). While he enters damage control,
Khan's
in the corner delivering a "stirring" speech about government spending, somehow, and more Shadows are Being Cast over
TSL's
"negative" campaign.
Negarir
and
Peanuts
both put forward their War on Terror policies, and surprisingly, the Democrat was left-wing about it and the Republican was right-wing about it.
Spire
also had things to say about education and it was good and fine but it's been a big news day.
Week in Review
The news cycle strength is how good or bad your media was for the week, if you had any media at all. The ads just tell you who's producing what, and what's being targeted in each. Scandals are self explanatory I would hope. The full picture has basically everything that happened, but unformatted, so you can cry while you read it.
Spoiler: News cycle strength
Negarir
+28,
Spire
+17,
Khan
+10,
Defender
-6,
McGriddles
-5,
Tilden-St. Leonard
-2,
Mothma
+2,
Peanuts
-1,
Reckoner
-1,
Serduchka
+1.
Spoiler: Ads
Tilden-St. Leonard
> completed ad > United States >
Tilden-St. Leonard
/Health Care.
Negarir
> completed ad > United States >
Negarir
/Military Intervention.
Mothma
> completed ad > United States >
Mothma
/Military Intervention.
Defender
> completed ad > United States >
Mothma
/Military Intervention.
Abbott
> completed ad > United States >
Abbott
/Health Care.
Khan
> completed ad > United States >
Khan
/Role of Government.
Serduchka
> completed ad > United States >
Serduchka
/Military Intervention.
Peanuts
> completed ad > United States >
Peanuts
/Health Care.
McGriddles
> completed ad > United States >
McGriddles
/Role of Government.
Reckoner
> completed ad > United States >
Reckoner
/Government Spending.
Spire
> completed ad > United States >
Spire
/Tax Rates.
Spoiler: Scandals
A scandal on
Defender
has been uncovered!
Spoiler: The rest
Peanuts receives permanent issue bonus from policy speech on the Leadership issue.
Event "Suicide Bomber Kills 100 in Turkey, Injures 400" has occurred.
Event replenishes speeches for War on Terror issue.
Event "Columbus Day Stirs Debate" has occurred.
Event replenishes speeches for Leadership issue.
Gaining momentum:
Neganir
,
Spire
,
Khan
Losing momentum:
TSL
,
Defender
,
Reckoner
MAPS
Ignore McMullin. Leaders of each state are colour-coded; white states means it's too close to call. The percentage list on the right-hand side is the popular vote; the lines and segments down the bottom are PROJECTED delegates. Once delegates start being earned, that will be added separately.
REPUBLICANS
DEMOCRATS
Next time, on this thing!:
Will Defender's scandal fade away or blow up in his face? Can Spire capitalize on his debate performance, and will McGriddles recover from his? Will Republicans stop attacking Reckoner?
Last edited by Drench on Sat Jan 07, 2017 6:23 am, edited 1 time in total.
Post
Post #17 (isolation #12) » Sat Jan 07, 2017 6:18 am
Postby Drench »
also if anyone has ideas for hilar scandals and gaffes to use i'll literally throw em in, all the game gives me is "gaffe about issue xyz!!" or "scandal about integrity/corruption!!!" and im like ok...............cool
Post
Post #33 (isolation #17) » Sat Jan 07, 2017 2:39 pm
Postby Drench »
The Week of October 14th
110 days until Iowa
118 days until New Hampshire
391 days until the Presidential Election
Headlines
The papers are released each day in the morning, and describe what happened the previous day. The first day of the cycle is a Wednesday, and the last a Tuesday, but the first newspapers are Thursday's, and the last Wednesday's.
Thursday's papers:
The world watches and waits to see if
Defender's
scandal[/color] takes hold. It...does not. It's still on the front page of every newspaper in this godforsaken country, but it's fading. Lying will get you places, folks. Elsewhere,
Khan
gives a policy speech on Iran, consisting of the words "get rid of it", to rapturous applause.
Negarir
makes a good impression on On The Record, although I still have no idea who Greta Van Susteren is. Don't even think she has Twitter.
TSL
negativity Questions remain,
Reckoner
successfully paints
Peanuts'
War on Terror policy as nuts without anyone noticing he has the exact same policy, and protesters get their kicks at
Negarir
and
McGriddles
events.
Friday:
The US will have boots on the ground in Afghanistan until 2017, as announced by President Obama today. It's dominating the news, and the issue of military intervention is a hot button issue, but wait!
Defender
is in more hot water!
Reckoner
continues his successful spinning with a roaring attack on
Defender's
integrity, and it makes everything worse--this
scandal
, far from being over like some (me) thought, is now the most damaging news story for any candidate to date.
Spire
continues the debate victory tour with a good showing on The O'Reilly Factor (which: wow), while
Negarir
talks education on Jimmy Fallon (when Fallon isn't laughing at his own jokes) and calls for stronger immigration controls. Which is so out of the ordinary. He's also in Colorado, which would make sense in the general, but not quite now!!! Meanwhile,
Mothma
lets everyone know that unions aren't all bad, to mixed results, and
Abbott
actually seizes on the hot-button issue of the day by way of calling
Khan
a complete warmonger, whereas
Abbott
is only a warmonger during the working week.
Saturday:
Oh my god just someone shove
Defender
in a hole before he makes things worse,
Negarir
ripped him to shreds on the Rachel Maddow show and
Defender
responded and tried to defend??? himself????? which, I guess it's in the name, but this
scandal
is now really, really bad. Anyway,
Negarir
also managed to talk about crushing corruption on TRMS, which, good choice of topic; and
Reckoner
remembered he needed to win the primaries and campaigned on government spending in New Hampshire. It's a Saturday, you can't expect much.
Sunday:
Ding, ding, ding, we have an endorsement! Strongly encouraged by his "businesses need tax cuts to pay for company cars" stance,
Americans for Tax Reform
have endorsed
Khan
wholeheartedly; the momentum is building, and
Grover Norquist
is gearing up to campaign for
Khan's
empire to rise and rise and rise.
Defender's
scandal
is starting to fade, helped in part by both
Khan's
demurring and defending when asked, and
Defender's
own successful speech showcasing his breadth of knowledge on the issues.
Khan
immediately hits the road in Virginia to celebrate, although his surrogate gets hit with some protests at an event; and
TSL's
husband tries to campaign on tax rates for his wife, and also gets protested, because why not. First Amendment, huh!
Monday:
Reckoner
, still in New Hampshire probably, is packing them IN with his fiery rhetoric on government spending (even if it's pretty standard Democratic language).
Spire
who sure isn't around a whole lot after dominating the debate for some reason, shines on Colbert, while
Peanuts
has a go on
Reckoner
-favourite Meet The Press.
McGriddles
completes the Democratic trifecta by doing well on Rachel Maddow, being able to name the top marginal tax rate, unlike some people.
Spire
and
Peanuts
have basically the same healthcare policy, but it ain't stopping the latter for slamming the former for it. And that
Defender
scandal
is in the rear-view mirror...but how much damage has it done?
Tuesday:
A big day for
Negarir
, in both ways: people seem to like his vision of an unfettered, overbudgeted military, but
TSL
attacked him from the left in light of the Afghanistan announcement. The recent parity in
general election polling
turns into bad news for
Negarir
, as
Khan
spins it into a failing of the current polling leader (
Negarir
) to lift that number higher. And
Serduchka
makes an appearance, poking just enough holes in
Spire's
Colbert performance for it to be left behind in the news cycle.
Wednesday:
Peanuts
couldn't tell Fox News Sunday, of all people, whether he supported the Second Amendment (he does, but in a mainstream Democratic way, you feel), so no matter how bad your day is, at least it ain't that. Two duelling speeches get coverage today; those of
Serduchka
who gets mixed reviews for her cookie-cutter Democratic government intervention platform, and
Defender
, who did better in articulating what essential programs should be cut and how brutally it should be done.
Khan
tried to slam him on exactly that issue, but it did minimal damage at best--and the
Defender
scandal
is officially over.
The first Republican primary debate is in seven days.
Week in Review
The news cycle strength is how good or bad your media was for the week, if you had any media at all. The ads just tell you who's producing what, and what's being targeted in each. Scandals are self-explanatory. The full picture has basically everything that happened, but unformatted, so you can cry while you read it.
Spoiler: News cycle strength
News Power:
Defender
-27,
Spire
+23,
Negarir
+19,
Tilden-St. Leonard
-5,
Peanuts
+3,
McGriddles
+2,
Reckoner
+2,
Khan
-1,
Mothma
+-,
Serduchka
+-.
Spoiler: Ads
Tilden-St. Leonard
> completed ad > United States >
Defender
/Health Care.
Negarir
> completed ad > United States >
Negarir
/Military Intervention.
Mothma
> completed ad > United States >
Mothma
/Iran.
Defender
> completed ad > United States >
Mothma
/Free Trade.
Abbott
> completed ad > United States >
Defender
/Health Care.
Khan
> completed ad > United States >
Khan
/Role of Government.
Serduchka
> completed ad > United States >
Spire
/Health Care.
Reckoner
> completed ad > United States >
McGriddles
/Immigration.
Spire
> completed ad > United States >
Serduchka
/Immigration.
McGriddles
> completed ad > United States >
McGriddles
/Role of Government.
Peanuts
> completed ad > United States >
McGriddles
/Immigration.
Spoiler: Scandals
None!
Spoiler: The rest
REP primaries debate in 7 days.
Khan endorsed by Americans for Tax Reform > Tax Rates!
Mr. Grover Norquist is now a potential Surrogate for Khan!
New endorsers available > United States > Glenn Beck, Right-Wing Talk Radio, Left-Wing Talk Radio, Iowa > The Family Leader, Rep. Steve King, Right-Wing Talk Radio, Left-Wing Talk Radio, Des Moines Register.
Event "President Announces U.S. Military in Afghanistan Until 2017" has occurred.
Event replenishes speeches for Military Intervention issue.
McGriddles receives permanent issue bonus from policy speech on the Same-Sex Marriage issue.
Negarir receives permanent issue bonus from policy speech on the Defense Spending issue.
Gaining momentum:
Peanuts, Spire, McGriddles
Losing momentum:
Negarir, Defender, TSL
MAPS
Ignore McMullin. Leaders of each state are colour-coded; white states means it's too close to call. The percentage list on the right-hand side is the popular vote; the lines and segments down the bottom are PROJECTED delegates. Once delegates start being earned, that will be added separately.
REPUBLICANS
DEMOCRATS
Next time, on this thing!:
Can Spire keep it up? Will Defender recover from his polling slump? And who will win the first Republican primary debate???
news strength =/= momentum; news strength is literally the sum of your positive and negative stories, and a debate win story usually is both very positive and lasts a long time
i'd say probably 80% of that +23 is the debate win
spire's momentum on the other hand is +1.1, which is okay, but not extraordinary, and not first
national momentum on the right, and if u got an upward arrow in a state it means u got momentum there too
so basically news is one component of momentum, it also increases or decreases via ads for you and ads against you, the actual actions you and your surrogates are taking, organizational strength, what exactly it is you're saying and whether the issues you're focusing on have room to grow for you or don't.....it's a lot
momentum is also a delayed thing; it takes time to build momentum from stories, and it takes time for poll numbers to be affected by momentum.
and in the end, momentum is only great if it's helping you win
polling numbers are more important imho
Post
Post #37 (isolation #19) » Sat Jan 07, 2017 4:13 pm
Postby Drench »
The Week of October 21st
103 days until Iowa
111 days until New Hampshire
384 days until the Presidential Election
Headlines
A day by day analysis of what's making the news. The papers are released each day in the morning, and describe what happened the previous day. The first day of the cycle is a Wednesday, and the last a Tuesday, but the first newspapers are Thursday's, and the last Wednesday's.
Thursday's papers:
TSL
is ROLLING in the dough and, true to form, she wants you to know about it.
Serduchka
finally decides to do something and drops the hottest ad of 2015, or something, attacking
Spire's
pinko commie only-slightly-further-left-than-she-is health care plan.
Negarir
talks about gun control with Fox News Sunday and you can guess what the tone of it was, probably.
Reckoner
gives a major speech decrying American military interventionism, without realizing his audience are all hawks, so you can probably guess how that played.
Defender
is content to slam
Mothma's
maybe-free-trade-is-good stance, and, oh, did we mention the corruption
scandal
that's just broken over
Serduchka's
head? I know it's just a Chicago thing, but you just can't accept designer clothes, turn around, and refuse to prosecute designer clothing manufacturers for visa fraud. You just can't.
Friday:
Fmr. Sec. Clinton, who turned down a second bid at the Presidency after seeing the extremely strong Democratic field, testified for eleven hours before the House Committee on Benghazi. Also, the
scandals
are POURING IN!
Negarir
plagarized parts of his authorized biography!
McGriddles
claimed to be the heir to Ronald McDonald's estate!
Scandals
, everywhere.
TSL's
fundraising has been spun out of existence by
Abbott
, while
Serduchka
tries to put her
scandal
to rest for good with a surprisingly strong showing on Jimmy Fallon.
Spire
seems to be the only one out in the field right now, with a poignant speech on why the tax code is fine as it is. Maybe poignant isn't the right word.
Saturday:
A lot of coverage today, but not much in the way of good OR bad news; just neutral will do.
Khan
and
Defender
put forward two competing speeches; the first on how government should be really really tiny probably, the second on how the Iran Deal is probably bad; both made little splash. What influential news came was minute at best--
TSL
continues to campaign on ~exporting democracy~ in Iowa;
McGriddles'
scandal
only gets attention from
Reckoner
, and
Negarir
seems to be slipping his
scandal
under the rug as we speak, or, at least, he's managed to not make it get bigger. Politics, she is fickle.
Sunday:
It's a big Sunday. Two effective moments from both sides of the aisle today:
Serduchka
, seemingly no longer troubled by bad news, nailed Fox News Sunday even when the question turned to why Democrats were sinful for wanting to expand government.
Negarir's
philosophy of "bomb first, ask questions later" also hit its mark. So effective were those two stories, they nearly buried what might otherwise be big news: three major endorsements from across the spectrum.
Spire
won the endorsement of
Fmr. Pres. Jimmy Carter
, who hits the trail immediately;
Khan
himself added to his endorsement collection with
Fmr. Pres. George H. W. Bush
, who likewise is really excited to campaign for some reason, and
McGriddles
wins Actually Good Billionaire
Warren Buffett
. Oh, but there's more, and not just because I clicked down;
Mothma
has won major Republican cash cow
Sheldon Adelson
, which can't be anything but a major cash infusion for her campaign. Elsewhere,
Spire
talked education with Rachel Maddow, and did well;
Negarir
proved some leadership credentials on On The Record, and
Khan
mocked
Defender's
promise to cut one government spending program a day, calling it "really dumb" and "some sort of game show thing, I don't know".
We also present this headline, without comment.
Monday:
Scandals
just aren't blowing up and going viral this week, but maybe this'll be different, because as it turns out,
Mothma
deliberately avoids buying things that were Made in America. Shameful.
Peanuts
, meanwhile, was the next contestant on Jimmy Fallon and he did well!
Abbott's
fundraising coup with the onion lobby hits the headlines, and positively;
Reckoner
talks government spending on Colbert; and I regret to inform all that the pop stars are at it again, this time for
Negarir
.
Grover Norquist
is busy attacking
Negarir's
leadership skills in Texas (maybe that's why he needed the concert), and there's just a little bit of protesting at a
Khan
event.
Tuesday:
There's been a massive and tragic 7.5 earthquake in Hindu Kush, sharply bringing leadership ability into focus. Not much else is registering because of that news;
Peanuts
loves to talk about education in front of crowds, apparently, and
Negarir
does some local campaigning in Alaska, but everything else tends to wash out. Of the major
scandals
, none have blown up in the way that
Defender's
did last week, but they're still there and percolating without intensification or fade. Various people are tryinng to keep those
scandals
alive (specifically,
Reckoner
on
McGriddles
,
Negarir
on
Mothma
, and
Reckoner
again on
Negarir
), but at best, they're just humming at the same energy level. Lastly,
Defender's
surrogate takes it to
Mothma
and her health care plan (a reminder: no burn units).
Wednesday:
Abbott
and Bill O'Reilly get on famously on the Factor, and he keeps bringing in even MORE money, so it's a good day for him.
Spire
passionately calls for greater government spending in peoples' lives, but whether anyone thinks better of him for it is up in the air.
Reckoner
mixes easily with the fine people of Nevada, who love the military to not intervene, and
McGriddles
does somewhat well on The Rachel Maddow Show, promising to find savings in Defense.
Serduchka
drops her hot take on same-sex marriage (the take is: gays are people), and a
Khan
barnstorm on energy is briefly interrupted by protesters. As for
scandals
, they're not getting much coverage any more, but people like
TSL
and
Reckoner
are ensuring that when they do occasionally get aired, it ain't pretty for
Negarir
and
McGriddles
, respectively.
It's Wednesday morning;
the Republican primary debate is tonight.
The Week That Was
I try to sum this week up and make more sense of it.
The wound may be small, but if you don't treat it, it'll fester. That's the lesson learned by some more than others this week. The mass of scandals were mostly contained, but containing is not enough, and while those scandals might've dropped off the front page fairly quickly, they still got a paragraph in the back. People like
Mothma
and
Defender
are suffering now because of it, despite any of the other good work they did. But, most of the
Republican
field was tained with scandal, and so it's not so much that some are losing momentum, as it is that the untainted (
Abbott
) are gaining. The promising progress of the
Democrats
almost became the antithesis in that; the momentum tracker below will show that
Peanuts
and
Serduchka
are gaining momentum without
Reckoner
doing the same, but the truth is that they're all within 0.1 of each other in the momentum scale. That's what good campaigning gets you, and that's what consistent campaigning gets you, not to mention proper crisis management.
Serduchka's
gain tells us two things particularly: that killing a scandal quickly is better than hoping it'll go away, as she did; and that a week is a very long time in politics, and if you use it, you can make a bad start turn into an excellent end. The
Democrats
, overall, are proving just how fleeting and inconsequential news coverage can be: they got the headlines, but it's the ground game that's pushing them up. Just don't let a scandal fester, and don't let that momentum go to waste.
Week in Review
The news cycle strength is how good or bad your media was for the week, if you had any media at all. The ads just tell you who's producing what, and what's being targeted in each. Scandals are self-explanatory. The full picture has basically everything that happened, but unformatted, so you can cry while you read it.
Spoiler: News cycle strength
News Power:
McGriddles
-17,
Mothma
-11,
Abbott
+11,
Serduchka
+8,
Tilden-St. Leonard
+8,
Defender
-6,
Spire
+5,
Khan
-5,
Peanuts
+4,
Negarir
-1,
Reckoner
+-.
Spoiler: Ads
Tilden-St. Leonard
> completed ad > United States >
Tilden-St. Leonard
/Integrity.
Negarir
> completed ad > United States >
Abbott
/Leadership.
Mothma
> completed ad > United States >
Mothma
/Integrity.
Defender
> completed ad > United States >
Mothma
/Health Care.
Abbott
> completed ad > United States >
Abbott
/Health Care.
Spire
> completed ad > United States >
Serduchka
/Military Intervention.
Peanuts
> completed ad > United States >
Spire
/Immigration.
McGriddles
> completed ad > United States >
Peanuts
/Government Spending.
Khan
> completed ad > United States >
Negarir
/Leadership.
Spoiler: Scandals
Scandal on Serduchka!
Scandal on Negarir!
Scandal on McGriddles!
Scandal on Mothma!
Scandal on Negarir!
Scandal on McGriddles!
Spoiler: The rest
Khan endorsed by Fmr. Pres. George H. W. Bush > Military Intervention!
Fmr. Pres. George H. W. Bush is now a potential Surrogate for Khan!
Spire endorsed by Fmr. Pres. James Carter > Gun Control!
Fmr. Pres. James Carter is now a potential Surrogate for Spire!
Mothma endorsed by Mr. Sheldon Adelson > Tax Rates!
McGriddles endorsed by Mr. Warren Buffett > Tax Rates!
Reckoner's policy speech on the Military Intervention issue has backfired!
Reckoner receives permanent issue penalty from policy speech on the Military Intervention issue.
Event "Clinton 11 Hours Testimony" has occurred.
Event replenishes speeches for Experience issue.
Defender's policy speech on the Education issue has backfired!
Defender receives permanent issue penalty from policy speech on the Education issue.
Event "7.5 Earthquake in Hindu Kush" has occurred.
Event replenishes speeches for Leadership issue.
Gaining momentum:
Abbott
,
Serduchka
,
Peanuts
Losing momentum:
Mothma
,
McGriddles
,
Defender
MAPS
Ignore McMullin. Leaders of each state are colour-coded; white states means it's too close to call. The percentage list on the right-hand side is the popular vote; the lines and segments down the bottom are PROJECTED delegates. Once delegates start being earned, that will be added separately.
REPUBLICANS
DEMOCRATS
Next time, on this thing!:
The Republican debate is TONIGHT. I'm probably doing a special post just for that, and then the third update of the day. But will there be more???
Last edited by Drench on Sat Jan 07, 2017 4:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Both sides have roughly the same number of candidates, but it's clear that while the Democrats were less focused, these six came prepared. Some preparations fell flat, of course:
TSL
did no favours with her provably false claim that she was, in fact, the richest woman in the world. Unlike some others we may know, she is not a good liar--
Negarir
didn't let her off the hook, and it exposed both
TSL's
exaggeration and her utter lack of preparation on the issues. But others did not fare much better.
Abbott
,
Defender
and
Khan
, while all slightly better than
TSL
, were similarly woeful.
Khan
at least managed to claim plausible credit for the sustainability of the Mongol Empire, but
Abbott's
expertly crafted takedown of
Khan's
entire record as a public servant will be remembered for a very, very long time. It's a pity
Abbott
couldn't use the same skills to help himself, turning in a wooden and uninspiring performance.
Defender
looked petty when he once again went after
Mothma's
health care plan, as if it were the only thing he could think about; to her credit,
Mothma
used the opportunity to weave a convincing, energetic argument for her election. It was, in the end, hers and
The papers are released each day in the morning, and describe what happened the previous day. The first day of the cycle is a Wednesday, and the last a Tuesday, but the first newspapers are Thursday's, and the last Wednesday's.
Thursday's papers:
The debate brings no good fortune to anyone as the draw settles in. In fact, there's bigger news: a $200 million runaway blimp with a 6,700ft cable is above Maryland and Pennsylvania. This is apparently a thing that happened.
Khan
puts out an attack ad and it really horribly falls flat.
Defender
goes for
Mothma's
health care policy again, while
Negarir
tries to attack ad
Abbott
into submission. Who knows how any of that will turn out?
McGriddles
does one of those dumb parlor games on Jimmy Fallon and he's okay at it, whilst
Khan
and
Negarir
make good impressions on On The Record.
Reckoner
continues his campaigning in Nevada, whilst
TSL
, feeling the heat over her debate gaffe, tries to shift focus with a corruption-themed barnstorm. It's a messy and chaotic day after an inconclusive debate.
Friday:
Paul Ryan
has been elected Speaker of the House! Good job, him.
Serduchka
is busy decrying Ryan's attitudes to Social Security with known communist Colbert, whilst
McGriddles
holds a very successful fundraiser.
Mothma
looks to capitalize on her drawn first with a speech tying herself to
Paul Ryan's
leadership, except, you know, what a dumb fucking idea, of course that backfires. It's a chat show sorta day:
Khan
does well on Fallon, and
Reckoner
rants about spending cuts satisfactorily on Rachel Maddow.
TSL
claws back some ground with some nice health care rhetoric in New Hampshire, which sounds suspiciously like a
Democratic
platform. And the attacks continue, with
Reckoner
slamming
Serduchka's
softness on immigration. Fucking bleeding heart liberals.
Saturday:
Massive, massive
Serduchka
scandal
. Multiple designer handbag manufacturers have accused
Serduchka
, in an almost coordinated fashion, on placing massive orders of designer handbags with them and failing to pay the bill. It dominates the news, even over the ordering of fifty special ops to Syria by the Administration. That's not all:
Negarir's
scandalous
shady almost-insider-trading was revealed in spectacular fashion, as leaked documents splashed across the front page of the New York Daily News revealed significant interests in companies he voted in tax cuts for. Then again, he's a
Republican
, so the tax cut thing is a bit expected. And it's not over!
Khan
's campaign has been forced to refund thousands of foreign donations under threat of penalty; a
scandal
indeed. Probably the only time anyone will care. Elsewhere,
Spire
rolls in the dough,
McGriddles
takes "tough questions" on Fallon, which I assume means Fallon asked him what his favourite movie was or something, and
TSL
does a good on Meet The Press.
Serduchka
tries to fight back with some positive coverage of her speech asking why the rich deserve to keep their money, and
Peanuts
and Rachel Maddow somehow agree on Social Security.
Sunday:
A Russian airliner has gone down, and a bombing is suspected. Moving on,
Serduchka's
damage control is in full flight as both she and
Reckoner
try to control her
scandal's
narrative. The thing is still across every channel, but it's only moderately damaging, and
Serduchka
manages to do well on Meet the Press, so.
Khan
gives a mildly received speech on how all countries must tremble before the might of the U.S. military immediately, and
Mothma
tries to argue that people losing jobs to free trade is Good, with bad results. More endorsements fly in, and they're kinda big:
Khan
has won the favour of
Fmr. Gov. Mitt Romney
, who hits the trail with no fanfare nor applause; not only does
Spire
deliver a well-received speech on Social Security and parries well on Rachel Maddow, but he also wins
Fmr. Pres. Bill Clinton
! Can't wait to hear him on the trail, or something. Meanwhile, the twin
scandals
of
Khan
and
Negarir
continue to percolate and build without pushback from the respective campaigns, which prompts the question: did they learn nothing?
Monday:
Serduchka
continues her active damage control, and it's the only thing not ending her right now, although
Peanuts
and
Reckoner
are trying hard to mitigate that. The Royals defeat the Mets, but who cares.
Negarir
manages to neutralize his
scandal
and has a blisteringly good night on Fallon, who needs to get over himself with all the political guests for fucks sake, and
Reckoner
takes some time off from trying to destroy
Serduchka
to deliver a well-received speech on how trade is evil.
TSL
is spotted in the Palmetto State (South Carolina, and yes, I'm showing off, thank you), actually campaigning.
Tuesday:
Serduchka
Scandal
might be the title of her next album but it's also the headline that enters its fourth straight day of being the top news story. It's slowly dying because
Serduchka
keeps trying to kill it, but where she goes,
Reckoner
is right behind her, spinning just as hard. Speaking of him, he made an excellent speech on why America should not immediately go to countries and shoot things, had a good day in Colorado, and then immediately turned around and claimed America wasn't in debt. Can't win 'em all. Integrity being in the news,
Negarir
capitalizes, holding a packed rally, barnstorming for small government in Oklahoma, and capping it off with a not-totally congruent talk on free trade with idiot in chief Jimmy Fallon. Indeed, more candidates are starting to campaign on the ground, with
Defender
chasing
Abbott
again on military interventionism, except now in the crucial first-in-the-nation caucus state of Iowa. And
Mothma
finally has some good news, making a good impression in South Carolina.
Statewide and municipal elections are today.
A Republican debate is in seven days.
Wednesday:
The
Republicans
have a good night, and win the keys to the Kentucky Governor's Mansion. Meanwhile,
Serduchka
has stepped in it. After days of claiming she would pay promptly, it's been revealed she sent lawyers after the designer handbag claimants, which makes this
scandal
very bad indeed. Momentum is now starting to build, especially where
Negarir
and
TSL
are concerned, to the point where they get news stories about it.
Negarir
takes the humanitarian but still pretty prohibitive position on immigration in South Carolina, and is showered with praise;
McGriddles
, is the latest target of Questions Have Been Asked Over The Campaign's Negativity, and this week, the pop artists strike
Peanuts
, but in a good way.
Serduchka
ups her activity, and does well in both talking on being prepared and Chris Matthews' Hardball, and
Spire
comes under fire for not wanting to welcome all immigrants immediately and without delay.
The Week That Was
I try to sum this week up and make more sense of it.
It's a weird week. A debate that didn't have a winner, a scandal that neither overwhelmed nor was neutralized, and candidates getting much more negative coverage than the headlines might suggest, but also a lot more momentum than the headlines suggest. Some weeks won't mean anything, but this was a week in which the race was wide open for candidates to continue defining themselves. Some, like
Neganir
and
Serduchka
, did so, for better or worse. Others, like
Abbott
and
Mothma
just shrunk into the background, even despite the latter's debate draw. There was also a lot more news this week, and some of it was buried on A22, but it still existed. Don't forget the power of those stories to still influence voters:
Khan
may have had some good stories, but he also had an active scandal and a lot of little things that don't make the front page. As such, his momentum's amongst the weakest of the
Republicans
, and while that's nothing compared to the anemic
Democratic
field, you have to remember two things: the other party is only your enemy after you clinch the nomination; and of course, one side had a debate this week and the other did not. No wonder the momentum's imbalanced.
Let's be clear: right now, Negarir's doing well. But there are dangers. Khan has a superior ground game. TSL has vast amounts of cash. And his momentum could be stymied at any moment. It's not looking dire for anyone, but Defender and Mothma do need to get something going. There's only three months until Iowa.
Don't be fooled: this is a two-tier race. It's Spire's game right now, with money, endorsements, and both a strong candidate and ground game helping him along. But one false move dooms you, and everyone else has advantages that others don't. On the Republican side, Khan was leading in the first Crystal Ball, and now he trails by fifty points, otherwise known as nearly twice the margin between 1st and 5th here.
Week in Review
The news cycle strength is how good or bad your media was for the week, if you had any media at all. The ads just tell you who's producing what, and what's being targeted in each. Scandals are self-explanatory. The full picture has basically everything that happened, but unformatted, so you can cry while you read it.
Spoiler: News cycle strength
News Power:
Serduchka
-22,
Khan
-17,
Negarir
+15,
McGriddles
+13,
Tilden-St. Leonard
+13,
Spire
+12,
Mothma
-12,
Reckoner
+10,
Peanuts
+5,
Abbott
-2,
Defender
-1.
Spoiler: Ads
Serduchka
> completed ad > United States >
Serduchka
/Government Spending.
Negarir
> completed ad > United States >
Tilden-St. Leonard
/Leadership.
Defender
> completed ad > United States >
Mothma
/Health Care.
Reckoner
> completed ad > United States >
Peanuts
/Government Spending.
Spire
> completed ad > United States >
Serduchka
/Experience.
Peanuts
> completed ad > United States >
Spire
/Health Care.
McGriddles
> completed ad > United States >
Spire
/Government Spending.
Mothma
> completed ad > United States >
Mothma
/Military Intervention.
Abbott
> completed ad > United States >
Tilden-St. Leonard
/Health Care.
Khan
> completed ad > United States >
Khan
/Government Spending.
Serduchka
> completed ad > United States >
Serduchka
/Military Intervention.
Spoiler: Scandals
Scandal on Negarir!
Scandal on Khan!
Scandal on Serduchka!
Spoiler: The rest
REP primaries debate in 6 days.
DEM primaries debate in 10 days.
Spire endorsed by Fmr. Pres. Bill Clinton > Leadership!
Fmr. Pres. Bill Clinton is now a potential Surrogate for Spire!
Khan endorsed by Fmr. Gov. Mitt Romney > War on Terror!
Fmr. Gov. Mitt Romney is now a potential Surrogate for Khan!
Khan's attack ad has backfired.
Event "$200 M Runaway Blimp with 6,700 Foot Cable Above Maryland and Pennsylvania, F-16s Scrambled to Track!" has occurred.
Event replenishes speeches for Government Spending issue.
Mothma's policy speech on the Leadership issue has backfired!
Mothma receives permanent issue penalty from policy speech on the Leadership issue.
Event "Paul Ryan Elected Speaker of House!" has occurred.
Event replenishes speeches for Leadership issue.
Event caused a momentum change of +3 for Tilden-St. Leonard's campaign.
Event caused a momentum change of +3 for Negarir's campaign.
Event caused a momentum change of +3 for Mothma's campaign.
Event caused a momentum change of +3 for Defender's campaign.
Event caused a momentum change of +3 for Abbott's campaign.
Event caused a momentum change of +3 for Khan's campaign.
Event "President Orders 50 Special Ops to Syria" has occurred.
Event replenishes speeches for Military Intervention issue.
Event caused a momentum change of +0.9 for Tilden-St. Leonard's campaign.
Event caused a momentum change of +2.3 for Negarir's campaign.
Event caused a momentum change of +2.2 for Mothma's campaign.
Event caused a momentum change of +2.5 for Defender's campaign.
Event caused a momentum change of +3 for Abbott's campaign.
Event caused a momentum change of +3 for Khan's campaign.
Event caused a momentum change of +0.3 for McMullin's campaign.
Mothma's policy speech on the Free Trade issue has backfired!
Mothma receives permanent issue penalty from policy speech on the Free Trade issue.
Event "Russian Airliner Crashes, Bomb Suspected" has occurred.
Event replenishes speeches for War on Terror issue.
McGriddles receives permanent issue bonus from policy speech on the Corruption issue.
Event "Kansas City Royals Defeat Mets, Win World Series!" has occurred.
Event replenishes speeches for Leadership issue.
Peanuts's policy speech on the Corruption issue has backfired!
Peanuts receives permanent issue penalty from policy speech on the Corruption issue.
Event "Republicans Strong in Elections, Win Kentucky Gov." has occurred.
Event replenishes speeches for Role of Government issue.
Event caused a momentum change of +3 for Tilden-St. Leonard's campaign.
Event caused a momentum change of +3 for Negarir's campaign.
Event caused a momentum change of +3 for Mothma's campaign.
Event caused a momentum change of +3 for Defender's campaign.
Event caused a momentum change of +3 for Abbott's campaign.
Event caused a momentum change of +3 for Khan's campaign.
Gaining momentum:
Negarir, TSL, Defender
Losing momentum:
Serduchka, Peanuts, McGriddles
MAPS
Ignore McMullin. Leaders of each state are colour-coded; white states means it's too close to call. The percentage list on the right-hand side is the popular vote; the lines and segments down the bottom are PROJECTED delegates. Once delegates start being earned, that will be added separately.
REPUBLICANS
DEMOCRATS
Next time, on this thing!:
Another debate! Can Negarir keep it up? Is Mothma going to wake up? Are the Democrats screwed? No, yes, no, because Christ, there's literally so long to go, but there's a debate.
Last edited by Drench on Sun Jan 08, 2017 11:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Post
Post #50 (isolation #24) » Sun Jan 08, 2017 11:07 pm
Postby Drench »
The Week of November 4th
89 days until Iowa
97 days until New Hampshire
370 days until the Presidential Election
Headlines
The papers are released each day in the morning, and describe what happened the previous day. The first day of the cycle is a Wednesday, and the last a Tuesday, but the first newspapers are Thursday's, and the last Wednesday's.
Thursday's papers:
Serduchka's
Dressgate
continues apace, but not without some deft handling by
Serduchka
that manages to tamp down the latest controversy somewhat.
McGriddles
tries to be a serious, competitive candidate, he really does, but the attack ad he crafts backfires in a major way after it misrepresents both his spending record and that of everyone else. It wasn't the only backfire today:
Defender
and
Negarir
also misjudged the electorate, although when the news changes every day, I guess it's gonna happen eventually.
Spire
argues that it should be drones and not the military that intervenes in foreign countries, to the applause and adulation of all. He also does well on Meet the Press, while
Reckoner
showcases how old he is (in a good way) through bragging about his experience with dissident and socialist Stephen Colbert.
Friday:
Reckoner
was SO good on The Late Show with Stephen Colbert, that he's literally on again tonight, because I guess all celebrities have quit now.
Defender
is similarly great on what seems to be the weekday edition of Meet the Press--enough so that
Dressgate
is sinking down the headlines, which is good news for
Serduchka
.
Spire
manages with one cable news feature what literally thirteen couldn't for
Reckoner
, and makes this whole
McGriddles
ad fuckup last longer than he wanted. And
Peanuts
, in his infinite courage, declares what few Democrats would: that unions are good.
Saturday:
Reckoner
might've had some bad luck spinning yesterday, but he's damn good at self-promotion, as his Colbert 2.0 spot gets major air time.
Spire
lucks onto the Saturday version of Fox News Sunday to flip the bird to Rupert Murdoch whilst wearing a shirt reading "I <3 Obamacare", and it somehow goes down well.
Serduchka
is finally out of the news,
Mothma
remembers who she drew with in the debate and hits
Negarir
for, somehow, being too right-wing on taxes, and
Defender
realizes that Nevada is holding a caucus, heading on down to the Silver State faster than you can say "Harry Reid will end your career if you ignore him for one day longer".
Sunday:
The Presidents of China and Taiwan have met for the first time ever in a historic diplomatic event. Not that American foreign policy will care.
Spire
inches closer to winning Middle America by declaring that gays should be declared people on a state-by-state basis, and
Reckoner
, shockingly, reveals himself to be a liberal on government spending in front of a packed audience. But the other big news is that multiple Big Names On Country have finally decided to drop the all important e-bomb--the endorsement. The BNOCs include
Fmr. Pres. George W. Bush
for
Khan
;
V.P. Joe Biden
for
Spire
(eat your heart out, DNC);
Fmr. Rep. Ron Paul
for
Abbott
, triggering the creation of the most annoying subreddit in history;
Fmr. Mayor Michael Bloomberg
for
Negarir
, revealing himself to have always been a Tory in disguise; and (finally)
Fmr. V.P. Al Gore
for
Peanuts
. Thank god that's all over. All of them will show up eventually, presumably.
The Presidential Election is in exactly one year.
Monday:
A lead story about
Serduchka
, and it's not a scandal!!! Yes, she literally just made a speech that sounded like it was plagarized from the DNC Platform, but give her a break, and not just because it's my character.
Democrats
are falling behind in the generic presidential poll, and
Defender
acquits himself well on the O'Reilly Factor, with both him and Bill agreeing that collective bargaining and workers' rights at least belong in the recycling bin.
Reckoner
, who really is turning this spin game into an art, makes his speech last far longer in the news than it should've, and
Negarir
lets us know exactly how he will murder the terrorists.
Peanuts
attracts a bit of scorn for being endorsed by a former presidential loser,
Negarir
cops a little bit for only managing a mayor (even if it was of NYC), and it should be self-explanatory why an endorsement from Bush 43 impacts
Khan
a little negatively. We're not leaving out Biden's negative impact on
Spire's
headlines; we're just suppressing it so that one day we too are hired to be honourary chair of the winning candidate's fifty-state strategy. Also
Mothma's
in Virginia good for you Motho.
Tuesday:
Defender
once again steps in it!!! Although it's not that bad right now, the
scandal
basically is that he went to a strip club a few times when he was younger. Yeah, yeah, I know. Fox News Sunday, true to form, is running on a Tuesday, and
Khan
and
Mothma
both do well in the separate areas of "how much will you spend on defense" and "how little will you spend on government".
Serduchka
just cannot catch a break, becoming the latest winner of the weekly Negative Campaign spotlight, which I assume is like WaPo's The Fix except readable.
McGriddles
tries to sway minds with the dangle of some hella-liberal defense cuts, but it's unknown whether people are actually biting. And while he does well on Meet the Press,
Negarir
attracts some negative attention with the news Republicans are up--because it implies he's the next President, of course, and we can't have that.
This debate mostly made sense, and with a six-person field all desperate to stand out, that's perhaps saying something. Things mostly fell into the pattern set by last week's showdown, but perhaps with no more illusions about what was achievable.
Abbott
was woeful--his boast on his legislative record landed well--but it still didn't manage to lift a performance that was, again, wooden and lifeless. It looked like
Abbott
almost didn't want to be there, and it would've served all parties had he not been.
TSL
, a relatively absent figure on the trail this week, didn't quite bomb as hard, and even managed a solid blow against
Khan
, but still, you can't do much with someone who bitterly refuses to learn the issues, facts, problems, or people she contends with. But the top four were surprisingly equal--
Khan
withstood
TSL
and parried
Negarir
effectively, and so fell just behind the top three performers in this debate. But who expected
Defender
to be the one that took it all? He's been training and preparing for this, more so than, it appears, anyone else, and it showed, with a well-crafted closing argument that elevated
Defender
to the top of the heap. It was a close victory, but a victory nonetheless, leaving
Mothma
and
Negarir
to once again share the podium--this time, for silver.
is splashed across the papers today after taking the second debate and performing well on bad awards show host and serial unfunnyman Jimmy Fallon. That, and the declining prominence of
Stripgate
, surely puts a spring in his step.
McGriddles
gets praise showered on him by Rachel Maddow, while
Abbott
, unsurprisingly if I'm honest, is "Rollin' On In Texas". Good stuff everyone.
The Week That Was
I try to sum this week up and make more sense of it.
Candidates matter. Candidate strengths matter. Candidate weaknesses matter. Take the example of
Reckoner
, whose ability to spin the news leads to some seriously positive news coverage, and the momentum to boot. Take also the example of
Abbott
, whose fundamentally weak core debating skill dooms him to the lower debate echelons without improvement, and stalls momentum whenever it might be required. It's still far too early to figure out who's going to win Iowa, who's going to win New Hampshire, who's going to win the nomination, or who's going to win the Presidency. But these strengths and weaknesses matter, and its those fundamentals that are shaping the news coverage they're getting, the spin they're applying, and the momentum they're accruing. It may not always match up, and to explain why, it might help to keep everything in perspective:
Negarir
is running out of steam precisely because he had so much, and
Abbott
gains momentum precisely because he had so little. Once again though, it means nothing until the vote's in the ballot box.
Week in Review
The news cycle strength is how good or bad your media was for the week, if you had any media at all. The ads just tell you who's producing what, and what's being targeted in each. Scandals are self-explanatory. The full picture has basically everything that happened, but unformatted, so you can cry while you read it.
Spoiler: News cycle strength
News Power:
Reckoner
+20,
Spire
+14,
Serduchka
-13,
McGriddles
-10,
Khan
-5,
Mothma
+4,
Defender
+3,
Tilden-St. Leonard
+2,
Peanuts
-2,
Abbott
+2,
Negarir
+2.
Spoiler: Ads
Tilden-St. Leonard
> completed ad > United States >
Khan
/Integrity.
Negarir
> completed ad > United States >
Negarir
/Role of Government.
Mothma
> completed ad > United States >
Mothma
/Military Intervention.
Defender
> completed ad > United States >
Negarir
/Health Care.
Abbott
> completed ad > United States >
Abbott
/Health Care.
Serduchka
> completed ad > United States >
Serduchka
/Health Care.
Reckoner
> completed ad > United States >
Reckoner
/Military Intervention.
McGriddles
> completed ad > United States >
Peanuts
/Health Care.
Spire
> completed ad > United States >
McGriddles
/Leadership.
Peanuts
> completed ad > United States >
Spire
/Immigration.
Spoiler: Scandals
Scandal on Defender!
Spoiler: The rest
DEM primaries debate in 3 days.
Khan endorsed by Fmr. Pres. George W. Bush > Free Trade!
Fmr. Pres. George W. Bush is now a potential Surrogate for Khan!
Peanuts endorsed by Fmr. VP Al Gore > Environment!
Fmr. VP Al Gore is now a potential Surrogate for Peanuts!
Abbott endorsed by Fmr. Rep. Ron Paul > Tax Rates!
Fmr. Rep. Ron Paul is now a potential Surrogate for Abbott!
Spire endorsed by VP Joe Biden > Issue Familiarity!
VP Joe Biden is now a potential Surrogate for Spire!
Negarir endorsed by Fmr. Mayor Michael Bloomberg > Energy!
Mr. Michael Bloomberg is now a potential Surrogate for Negarir!
Negarir's policy speech on the War on Terror issue has backfired!
Negarir receives permanent issue penalty from policy speech on the War on Terror issue.
Defender's attack ad has backfired.
McGriddles's attack ad has backfired.
Event "Historic First, Chinese and Taiwanese Presidents Meet" has occurred.
Event replenishes speeches for Leadership issue.
Event "Veterans Day" has occurred.
Event replenishes speeches for Leadership issue.
Gaining momentum:
Abbott
,
Reckoner
,
Mothma
Losing momentum:
TSL
,
Serduchka
,
Negarir
MAPS
Ignore McMullin. Leaders of each state are colour-coded; white states means it's too close to call. The percentage list on the right-hand side is the popular vote; the lines and segments down the bottom are PROJECTED delegates. Once delegates start being earned, that will be added separately.
REPUBLICANS
DEMOCRATS
Next time, on this thing!:
There's a Democratic debate, and we're close to halfway through the pre-Iowa phase of this thing, which if you don't remember, is roughly the same size as two thirds of the actual primary phase. nice
Post
Post #52 (isolation #26) » Mon Jan 09, 2017 2:08 am
Postby Drench »
The Week of November 11th
82 days until Iowa
90 days until New Hampshire
363 days until the Presidential Election
Headlines
The papers are released each day in the morning, and describe what happened the previous day. The first day of the cycle is a Wednesday, and the last a Tuesday, but the first newspapers are Thursday's, and the last Wednesday's.
Thursday's papers:
Negarir
gets a one-two punch, but not all of it is good: he successfully repeats the words "taxes bad, tax cuts good" three times on O'Reilly, but his position on health care (i.e. to ban it) attracts an attack ad from
Defender
. And that's of course not related to the fact that the former is currently leading the polls, no sir.
Abbott's
not having a good time, with his warmonger-y stances being a major target of the
Negarir
campaign. And while
Serduchka
manages to get into the news without even speaking--
Peanuts
slamming her hard on health care--
McGriddles
can't get more than a narration of his education policy speech. Shucks.
Friday:
It's Friday, which means Fox News Sunday must be on.
Mothma
finds favour with her health care policy (it's health week, apparently), while
Reckoner
is so experienced he makes Jimmy Fallon cry tears of joy.
Negarir
calls Obama a terrible leader in a speech, but Republicans love that shit so of course it's a wild success. And
Khan
, dealing with
Negarir's
needling of him in Arizona, hits up Meet the Press and, indeed, meets the press, and does it well.
Reckoner
promises that he knows a lot of stuff,
Spire
tackles the least good of these programs, On The Record, and
Abbott
admits he doesn't actually know where the White House is. And, wouldn't you know it: the pop stars strike, this time serenading
Peanuts
.
Saturday:
Paris is in mourning after a terror attack leaving scores dead. Anyway the top story apart from that is that
Defender
has momentum! Good stuff kid!!
Khan
tries to define his tax policy but embarrassingly ends up just saying numbers until his audience either falls asleep or leaves, which happens fairly quickly.
Abbott
is next on the Negative Campaign merry-go-round, and some protesters get jiggy with it at a
Spire
event. Finally,
Mothma
and
Defender
have the exact same tax policy (consisting of, as aforementioned, "taxes bad"), but that's not gonna stop the former for slamming the latter on tax.
Murders were not meant to be witnessed. They're, in fact, illegal, although it seems nobody told
Peanuts
when he glanced over at the sparkling body suit of
Serduchka
. If you ignore that,
McGriddles
probably had the worst night, but you just cannot ignore the complete undermining of
Serduchka's
entire campaign rationale. Here's the problem: we're not even sure, right now, what
Serduchka's
in it for, until we forget
Peanuts'
contribution (and it is easily forgettable--the man is not a good debater), in which case everything snaps back into place. So, yes,
Serduchka
will rebound, but she was the clear loser tonight. No, instead, past that lower tier of three, came two highly skilled debaters who performed admirably.
Reckoner
had obviously done his research, but was clearly too tired to fully capitalize--the result was an admirable and very competent performance, but not one that could overcome
Spire
. Parrying away a
Serduchka
attack with ease, and successfully boasting of his own balanced budgets that still managed to afford hundreds of thousands of strange square gems,
takes the spoils, and it's his victory lap the press are all over--so much so that you'd think
Reckoner
wasn't in the paper at all. Alas, there he is, facing down a
scandal
that alleges various bribes to low-level officials, plus bonuses to those who actively practiced heterophobia. It's terrible--almost as terrible as
Khan's
Fox News Sunday performance was excellent, for once taking place on a Sunday. Meanwhile,
Negarir
swears up and down that
Abbott
is bad news--and speaking of,
Mr. Donald Trump
finally throws his lot behind the latter, hitting the trail in an effort to help
Abbott
to the nomination.
Spire
wins the endorsement of
Bill Maher
, which I'm sure thrilled him;
Defender
likewise earns
Gov. Bill Walker
; and
Serduchka
keeps contending with the debate trainwreck that threatens to make this her third bad, if not worse, week in a row. More endorsement news:
Negarir
gets
Fmr. V.P. Dick Cheney
, and, the big news out of Iowa:
Khan
wins the endorsement of
The Des Moines Register
. Will it matter? Will it win him Iowa? Stay tuned.
Monday:
And they don't stop coming and they don't stop coming and they don't stop coming and
Negarir
scandalously
used his influence to abolish the tipped minimum wage specifically in precincts with restaurants he didn't like and they don't stop coming and they don't stop coming.
Abbott
does whatever the fuck you do on On The Record,
TSL
--remember her?--and
Khan
are in South Carolina, and remember how I said how
Reckoner's
really good at spin? Yeah, that
scandal
appears to be fading. Just a good ol' day of retail politics, folks.
Tuesday:
A big day for policy:
Negarir
and
McGriddles
give health care and War on Terror speeches, respectively, to general admiration.
Khan
is ESPECIALLY impressive on O'Reilly, although it is not difficult when you're a Republican, to be fair.
Negarir's
lucky that speech is in the news, because the
wage abolisment scandal
is both not being spun by him and being spun by his opponents, with potentially catastrophic consequences if he doesn't rein it in. Then again, they always seem to fade where he's concerned, so maybe he's onto something we ain't.
Reckoner
declares that Iran must be dealt with through liberal globalist communist neoliberal imperialist ineffective all-powerful body, the United Nations, to not-so-great a response, while
Negarir's
being blamed (big day for him, huh?) for Republicans and Democrats evening up in the generic presidential ballot.
Wednesday:
Spire
does amazing on Fox News Sunday.
Spire
gives a terrific speech on the role of government in peoples' lives. It's been that sort of week. Whilst
Khan's
in Vermont and
TSL's
in Alaska,
Mothma
eschews the states for the day and just has a bit of a quiz with ol' Bill O'Reilly. She scores 8/10 and gets an A+, somehow.
McGriddles
recites verse and chapter of the DNC Platform on Rachel Maddow and gets praised for his effort;
Mitt Romney
goes after
Negarir
on health care in Massachusetts (and he would know), and the latter very same candidate tries to make a policy speech on the very same issue, changing few minds. The
Reckoner
scandal
is dead; the
Negarir
one lives on, but loses steam somewhat. It's deep, but it's getting old.
The Week That Was
We're six weeks in.
Spire, Reckoner,
Negarir,
and
Khan
are the frontrunners, right? Things will obviously change, and every candidate will hang around at least for a while, since they're all polling in double digits, but
Spire
in particular's just scored a second really good week, and this sort of stuff builds. Moving away from airy analysis and into the nuts and bolts of how this simulation works (albeit, still in a very airy way): a little momentum goes a little bit of the way, but if you can have successive good weeks, with good coverage, and good events happening to you, that momentum becomes big, and big momentum goes a lot bloody further than expected. Rally sizes increase. Ads get more traction. Your message is more amplified. Your polling improves. On and on and on. Let's be clear: I'm not suggesting this is
Spire's
world right now. No candidate's gotten a positive feedback loop that big yet. And you gotta remember as well: new scandals emerge every few days--thank each campaign having multiple spies in other campaigns for that--and so none of this is locked in. We haven't seen a negative feedback look that could really cripple someone, either. It could happen to anyone. But you have to admit, there are front-runners right now.
Week in Review
The news cycle strength is how good or bad your media was for the week, if you had any media at all. The ads just tell you who's producing what, and what's being targeted in each. Scandals are self-explanatory. The full picture has basically everything that happened, but unformatted, so you can cry while you read it.
Spoiler: News cycle strength
News Power:
Abbott
-13,
Spire
+9,
Mothma
+8,
Negarir
-5,
Defende
r +5,
Reckoner
-5,
McGriddles
+5,
Khan
+2,
Serduchka
-2,
Tilden-St. Leonard
+2,
Peanuts
+1.
Spoiler: Ads
Khan
> completed ad > United States >
Khan
/Immigration.
Negarir
> completed ad > United States >
Negarir
/Role of Government.
Mothma
> completed ad > United States >
Mothma
/Military Intervention.
Defender
> completed ad > United States >
Negarir
/Immigration.
Serduchka
> completed ad > United States >
Serduchka
/Health Care.
Reckoner
> completed ad > United States >
Reckoner
/Government Spending.
Spire
> completed ad > United States >
Peanuts
/Free Trade.
Peanuts
> completed ad > United States >
Spire
/Immigration.
Tilden-St. Leonard
> completed ad > United States >
Khan
/Military Intervention.
Abbott
> completed ad > United States >
Khan
/Health Care.
McGriddles
> completed ad > United States >
McGriddles
/Government Spending.
Spoiler: Scandals
Scandal on Reckoner!
Scandal on Negarir!
Spoiler: The rest
Negarir endorsed by Fmr. VP Dick Cheney > Leadership!
Fmr. VP Dick Cheney is now a potential Surrogate for Negarir!
Abbott endorsed by Mr. Donald Trump > Social Security!
Mr. Donald Trump is now a potential Surrogate for Abbott!
Spire endorsed by Bill Maher > Gun Control!
Mr. Bill Maher is now a potential Surrogate for Spire!
Khan endorsed by Des Moines Register > Iran!
Defender endorsed by Gov. Bill Walker > Leadership!
Gov. Bill Walker is now a potential Surrogate for Defender!
Khan's policy speech on the Tax Rates issue has backfired!
Khan receives permanent issue penalty from policy speech on the Tax Rates issue.
Event "Paris Attacked" has occurred.
Event increases War on Terror profile by 1 to High, speeches replenished.
Event caused a momentum change of +1.6 for Tilden-St. Leonard's campaign.
Event caused a momentum change of +5.8 for Defender's campaign.
Event caused a momentum change of +1.3 for McMullin's campaign.
Defender receives permanent issue bonus from policy speech on the Military Intervention issue.
Reckoner's policy speech on the Iran issue has backfired!
Reckoner receives permanent issue penalty from policy speech on the Iran issue.
Gaining momentum:
Khan, Defender, Mothma
Losing momentum:
Reckoner
,
Negarir
,
Serduchka
MAPS
Ignore McMullin. Leaders of each state are colour-coded; white states means it's too close to call. The percentage list on the right-hand side is the popular vote; the lines and segments down the bottom are PROJECTED delegates. Once delegates start being earned, that will be added separately.
REPUBLICANS
DEMOCRATS
Next time, on this thing!:
Eleven updates until Iowa. We've already gone through, like, seven. It's time to start getting hype.
Post
Post #58 (isolation #28) » Wed Jan 11, 2017 1:29 am
Postby Drench »
The Week of November 18th
75 days until Iowa
83 days until New Hampshire
356 days until the Presidential Election
Headlines
The papers are released each day in the morning, and describe what happened the previous day. The first day of the cycle is a Wednesday, and the last a Tuesday, but the first newspapers are Thursday's, and the last Wednesday's.
Thursday's papers:
Right, so, round two of this bullshit week. This will not be as long because fuck rewriting everything.
Negarir
and
Khan
are Republican and get good reviews. The latter gets some blowback from the former and
TSL
though, while the former gets some from
Defender
.
Serduchka
is the next contestant on Negative Campaign HQ, and
McGriddles
faces down a scandal.
Friday:
Massive
Khan
scandal, six extent if you care (see the week that was for me bothering to explain how the news works, finally).
McGriddles
dumps some water on his thing.
Abbott
drops an anti-
Khan
ad but it backfires. The pop stars and
Spire
--a match made in heaven.
Serduchka
gets a second negative campaign story.
Mothma
and O'Reilly are in love.
Saturday:
Khan
continues to suffer.
Negarir
does okay on Hardball, but gets hit by
Khan
lmao.
TSL
and
Abbott
get protesters.
Sunday:
Democrats take the Louisiana gubernatorial runoff, and the party's momentum jumps up.
Khan
is starting to bury the scandal, but it's getting worse content-wise so.
Defender
defends admirably on Meet the Press.
Reckoner
by way of party ID gets enough momentum from the gubernatorial win to have headlines about momentum.
TSL
is an extremist according to
Negarir
, which is a bit extra but also kinda true. Endorsements:
Gov. Jesse Ventura
for
Negarir
,
Gov. Brian Sandoval
for
Khan
,
Gov. Charlie Baker
for
Defender
,
Sec. of State John Kerry
and his chin for
Reckoner
,
George Soros
(lmao) for
Spire
, and
Glenn Beck
(l m a o) for
Abbott
.
Monday:
9 extent scandal for
Mothma
--this is Very Bad.
Khan
does well in a health care speech, but as his scandal fades it gets more scandalous.
Negarir
leads Republican polls, but the generic presidential ballot is even, and he's getting slammed by
Mothma
.
Abbott
and O'Reilly are in love.
Peanuts
likewise with Rachel Maddow, but gets hit by
Serduchka
on the trail.
Reckoner
fucks up Hardball. The Soros, Beck, and Kerry endorsements get negatively spun.
Tuesday:
The reason scandals with massive extents are bad is that while extent rarely increases, it's very easy to increase the other factor: a story's slant. Once again, see below, but believe me, this is truly bad for
Mothma
.
Negarir
and
Spire
have good times in South Carolina and the press, respectively.
Reckoner
screws it again on On The Record,
Khan
gets slammed by Donald Trump of all people, and
Defender
goes after
Abbott
.
Wednesday:
Mothma
is not screwed. But she's had better weeks.
Negarir
is rich AF but apparently too negative, while
Khan
does a good speech apparently, although
TSL
lands a few blows on the trail.
Spire
meets the press, and I've made this "joke" before but it went well.
The Week That Was
Extent mattered a lot this week so let's talk about it. Extent is how widespread the coverage of that event is. Most things that happen in this game have 0 extent, which essentially means they did not make the news. Your candidates are doing a lot every single day; barnstorming, familiarizing with issues, debate preparations, rallies, speeches, fundraising, the lot. Your campaign is also doing a lot, although less visible: ground game, organization, grassroots structuring, targeting, ads, research, oppo, list goes on. The fraction of that stuff that makes the news is what I refer to but more happens underneath. If it gets on the news, it has an extent of at least 1. Most things have extents of 1-3. Good media performances are more 2-3. Barnstorming is rarely over 1. Rallies and speeches run the gamut. Winning debates is usually around 5. When the primaries show up, Iowa and NH will be massive double digit extents, and the rest not so much, just like real life. Scandals can be anything. So far the biggest extent for a scandal was about 6, but Mothma started at 9. Extent falls each turn unless something big happens to increase it, but extent is only one half of What A Headline Does. The other half is slant, which is how good or bad it is for the particular candidate it's about. Slant can be anything, but usually starts between -2 and 2. Slant and extent are multiplied, and the final result is what actually affects you. Mothma started at an extent of 9, with a slant of -1. Each day, other candidates piled on and on, and that became -2, and right now extent is 7 and slant is -3, for an effect of -21, just for that day. Each day is cumulative and builds on the day before. So Mothma's scandal just by itself has done -46 to her news cycle strength. News isn't everything but it's something hey.
Anyway now you know.
Week in Review
The news cycle strength is how good or bad your media was for the week, if you had any media at all. The ads just tell you who's producing what, and what's being targeted in each. Scandals are self-explanatory. The full picture has basically everything that happened, but unformatted, so you can cry while you read it.
Spoiler: News cycle strength
News Power:
Mothma
-36,
Khan
-27,
Spire
+9,
Serduchka
-8,
McGriddles
-6,
Tilden-St. Leonard
-4,
Abbott
+3,
Defender
+3,
Reckoner
-2,
Negarir
+2,
Peanuts
+-.
Spoiler: Ads
Negarir
> completed ad > United States >
Tilden-St. Leonard
/Role of Government.
Mothma
> completed ad > United States >
Negarir
/Military Intervention.
Khan
> completed ad > United States >
Khan
/Immigration.
Reckoner
> completed ad > United States >
McGriddles
/Government Spending.
Spire
> completed ad > United States >
Spire
/Role of Government.
Peanuts
> completed ad > United States >
Spire
/Immigration.
Defender
> completed ad > United States >
Defender
/Health Care.
Abbott
> completed ad > United States >
Khan
/Military Intervention.
Khan
> completed ad > United States >
Defender
/Integrity.
Serduchka
> completed ad > United States >
Serduchka
/Tax Rates.
McGriddles
> completed ad > United States >
McGriddles
/Health Care.
Spoiler: Scandals
Scandal on McGriddles!
Scandal on Khan!
Scandal on Mothma!
Spoiler: The rest
Reckoner endorsed by Sec. of State John Kerry > Tax Rates!
Sec. John Kerry is now a potential Surrogate for Reckoner!
Negarir endorsed by Gov. Jesse Ventura > Abortion!
Gov. Jesse Ventura is now a potential Surrogate for Negarir!
Abbott endorsed by Glenn Beck > Role of Government!
Mr. Glenn Beck is now a potential Surrogate for Abbott!
Spire endorsed by George Soros > Abortion!
Defender endorsed by Gov. Charlie Baker > Leadership!
Gov. Charlie Baker is now a potential Surrogate for Defender!
Khan endorsed by Gov. Brian Sandoval > Social Security!
Gov. Brian Sandoval is now a potential Surrogate for Khan!
Event "Democrat Edwards Wins Louisiana Gubernatorial Election" has occurred.
Event replenishes speeches for Role of Government issue.
Event caused a momentum change of +3 for Serduchka's campaign.
Event caused a momentum change of +3 for Reckoner's campaign.
Event caused a momentum change of +3 for Spire's campaign.
Event caused a momentum change of +3 for Peanuts's campaign.
Event caused a momentum change of +3 for McGriddles's campaign.
Gaining momentum:
Negarir
,
Spire
,
Reckoner
Losing momentum:
Mothma
,
Khan
,
TSL
MAPS
Ignore McMullin. Leaders of each state are colour-coded; white states means it's too close to call. The percentage list on the right-hand side is the popular vote; the lines and segments down the bottom are PROJECTED delegates. Once delegates start being earned, that will be added separately.
REPUBLICANS
DEMOCRATS
Next time, on this thing!:
an actually good update, and your FIRST LOOK at how iowa and new hampshire are shaping up. the republican race will surprise you!
Post
Post #69 (isolation #30) » Sat Jan 14, 2017 3:56 pm
Postby Drench »
The Week of November 25th
68 days until Iowa
76 days until New Hampshire
349 days until the Presidential Election
Headlines
The papers are released each day in the morning, and describe what happened the previous day. The first day of the cycle is a Wednesday, and the last a Tuesday, but the first newspapers are Thursday's, and the last Wednesday's.
Thursday's papers:
Something something
Mothma
scandal
, you guys know the drill. But what you don't know is that
Negarir
ABSOLUTELY
hired some hookers to pee on him
!!!! This isn't inspired by real life at all. Anyway that's hilarious and manages to rise above the fact it's literally Thanksgiving.
Negarir
is actually all over the news today--he has a fundraiser and he's rich, but also he tries to do an ad and it does not work??? Yikes. Speaking of ads that don't work, it may be time for
Reckoner
's ad man to find a new job. As well as
Mothma's
. And
Spire's
. Jesus Christ.
Khan
is one of the only functioning candidates today, doing well on Fallon with only a baby rattle and a pacifier to help him, and
McGriddles
campaigns in Tennessee. Fifty state strategy, baybey!!!!
Friday:
I mean, I need oxygen at this point, because
Mothma's
scandal
just keeps rolling and literally will just not die, while
TSL
and
Negarir
duel on their
pissgate
spinning, with that ending in a draw. The latter attacks
Khan
in the vital swing state of Tennessee (I'm sensing a theme), and does really well on Fallon too, so maybe this won't be so bad.
Abbott
has a Negative Campaign (aren't we all?), and
TSL
rocks on in Texas, ranting about Mexicans.
Saturday:
When
TSL
wants something spun, it gets spun.
Pissgate
worsens for
Negarir
as the former's intense attacks start to take their toll.
McGriddles
gets in on the early-bird Meet the Press and "shines" like a diamond.
Spire
and Bill O'Reilly get on like a couple of blokes,
Reckoner
has John Kerry's chin doing some barnstorming in MA, and
TSL
gets down with Oklahoma.
Sunday:
Dude who totally isn't Attorney General-designate
Sen. Jeff Sessions
endorses
Khan
on the strength of his health care plan, while
Spire
snags
Gov. John Hickenlooper
, who is someone I don't know. More endorsements:
Gov. Peter Shumlin
for
McGriddles
, and
Sen. Richard Shelby
for
Defender
, which'll hopefully distract from the bad speech he gave. And yet, there's more:
Negarir
, still dealing with that
scandal
, gets
Rep. Steve King
, and
Peanuts
wins
Gov. Mark Dayton
, so yay for them. And in the ultimate proof he's a meme,
Reckoner
wins the endorsement of
Left-Wing Talk Radio
, which is apparently a thing. Truly, other things happened, but endorsement news tends to crowd everything out.
Monday:
With scandals fading,
Negarir
does well on Colbert, just as
Abbott
soars with O'Reilly.
Khan
stops by Maddow and preaches about integrity, to good effect.
Peanuts
gives a speech but honestly nobody really has a take on it so it's not like it's affecting him right now.
Defender
and
Serduchka
are appaz being real negative . How good is politics.
Tuesday:
McGriddles
tried, he really did!!! But his speech on how government should control all was, um, not good.
Khan
, on the contrary, talked about how government was a sin, and that went well.
TSL
hit up South Carolina, bless, while
Spire
takes some heat for polls showing the Democrats slipping in the generic.
Wednesday:
I really do feel like this week was news-lite but whatever. Fox News Sunday-on-a-Wednesday sees
TSL
doing well on immigration, and Democrats
Spire
and
Reckoner
take to O'Reilly and Vermont, respectively, to plug their policies.
Peanuts
emerges to talk guns with Greta, and
Defender
vows to deport the non-violent illegal immigrants first, which is obviously a) a mistaken utterance and b) absolutely not being left alone hahaha. And
Spire's
up in New Hampshire, slamming
McGriddles
as the latter's bad speech continues to reverberate.
The Week That Was
Mothma's
failure to unspin her scandal is undoing her. That's really all I've got to say. That, and the fact that some people are just struggling to get positive airtime. Or maybe it just won't matter--who knows?
Has Negarir cracked the code? A major part of this is his polling, but take that away and he's still on roughly 83~ points in The Crystal Ball. He's got the endorsements, he's got a resonant platform, his ground game isn't superior but it's sufficient--where's the crack? I guess we'll either find out, or we won't.
And is Spire as safe? Logic would say no; he's up about 20 points when you discount current polling. A lot of it is endorsements; is that going to be what does it? Is The Crystal Ball just full of shit? Who knows, folks.
Week in Review
The news cycle strength is how good or bad your media was for the week, if you had any media at all. The ads just tell you who's producing what, and what's being targeted in each. Scandals are self-explanatory. The full picture has basically everything that happened, but unformatted, so you can cry while you read it.
Spoiler: News cycle strength
Mothma
-70,
Defender
-14,
Tilden-St. Leonard
+9,
Khan
+7,
Serduchka
-6,
McGriddles
-5,
Spire
-3,
Peanuts
-3,
Negarir
+2,
Abbott
+2,
Reckoner
-2.
Spoiler: Ads
Tilden-St. Leonard
> completed ad > United States >
Negarir
/Free Trade.
Tilden-St. Leonard
> completed ad > United States >
Tilden-St. Leonard
/Free Trade.
Defender
> completed ad > United States >
Negarir
/Immigration.
Abbott
> completed ad > United States >
Abbott
/Military Intervention.
Serduchka
> completed ad > United States >
Reckoner
/Free Trade.
Reckoner
> completed ad > United States >
Reckoner
/War on Terror.
Peanuts
> completed ad > United States >
Peanuts
/Leadership.
Negarir
[/b]> completed ad > United States >
Negarir
/Role of Government.
Mothma
[/b]> completed ad > United States >
Negarir
/Military Intervention.
Khan
> completed ad > United States >
Defender
/Integrity.
Spire
> completed ad > United States >
Reckoner
/Role of Government.
McGriddles
> completed ad > United States >
McGriddles
/Leadership.
Spoiler: Scandals
Scandal on Negarir!
Spoiler: The rest
Abbott endorsed by The Family Leader > War on Terror!
Mr. Bob Vander Plaats is now a potential Surrogate for Abbott!
Negarir endorsed by Rep. Steve King > Health Care!
Rep. Steve King is now a potential Surrogate for Negarir!
Reckoner endorsed by Left-Wing Talk Radio > Social Security!
Spire endorsed by Gov. John Hickenlooper > Same-Sex Marriage!
Gov. John Hickenlooper is now a potential Surrogate for Spire!
Peanuts endorsed by Gov. Mark Dayton > Social Security!
Gov. Mark Dayton is now a potential Surrogate for Peanuts!
McGriddles endorsed by Gov. Peter Shumlin > Unions!
Gov. Peter Shumlin is now a potential Surrogate for McGriddles!
Defender endorsed by Sen. Richard Shelby > Unions!
Sen. Richard Shelby is now a potential Surrogate for Defender!
Khan endorsed by Sen. Jeff Sessions > Health Care!
Sen. Jeff Sessions is now a potential Surrogate for Khan!
Negarir's attack ad has backfired.
Mothma's attack ad has backfired.
Reckoner's attack ad has backfired.
Spire's attack ad has backfired.
Event "Happy Thanksgiving!" has occurred.
Event replenishes speeches for Integrity issue.
Negarir receives permanent issue bonus from policy speech on the War on Terror issue.
Defender receives permanent issue bonus from policy speech on the Role of Government issue.
Defender's policy speech on the Unions issue has backfired!
Defender receives permanent issue penalty from policy speech on the Unions issue.
Serduchka receives permanent issue bonus from policy speech on the Defense Spending issue.
McGriddles's policy speech on the Role of Government issue has backfired!
McGriddles receives permanent issue penalty from policy speech on the Role of Government issue.
Gaining momentum:
TSL
,
Spire
,
Abbott
Losing momentum:
Mothma
,
McGriddles
,
Defender
MAPS
Ignore McMullin. Leaders of each state are colour-coded; white states means it's too close to call. The percentage list on the right-hand side is the popular vote; the lines and segments down the bottom are PROJECTED delegates. Once delegates start being earned, that will be added separately.
REPUBLICANS
DEMOCRATS
Next time, on this thing!:
You're getting another update in half an hour, calm it. IA/NH numbers after the next debate which is in two updates.
Post
Post #70 (isolation #31) » Sat Jan 14, 2017 4:46 pm
Postby Drench »
The Week of December 2nd
61 days until Iowa
69 days (nice) until New Hampshire
342 days until the Presidential Election
Headlines
The papers are released each day in the morning, and describe what happened the previous day. The first day of the cycle is a Wednesday, and the last a Tuesday, but the first newspapers are Thursday's, and the last Wednesday's.
Thursday's papers:
San Bernardino. Things are not great.
Defender
has another ad that backfires, as do
Mothma
and
Abbott
, while
Spire
does a thing with Fox News Sunday and it works out.
Negarir
hits up Meet the Press and everyone loves the concept of health care just being less there.
Serduchka's
union policy speech backfires, which sounds like fake news but whatever.
Friday:
Negarir
is good at television interviews, sky is blue, water is wet.
Abbott
now has multiple ads backfiring, which: call your office. And protesters emerge everywhere, from
Negarir
to
Reckoner
to
Abbott
events. Today's news is just a lot of this.
Saturday:
Defender
and Meet the Press are like, perfect buddies.
Spire
pleads for borders to just be a concept that doesn't exist, to the applause of many on Maddow.
Mothma
is the latest to, for some reason, be in Tennessee, while one of her ads on military intervention backfires. I really really am trying to write on every news headline that doesn't involve
Spire
or
Negarir
, but literally, that was it.
Sunday:
Finally, someone politicizes San Bernardino; the only surprising thing is that it took this long.
Serduchka's
policy speech on the War on Terror is top news purely becaues of this, and manages to soar above the endorsement news we have today.
Abbott
wins
Right-Wing Talk Radio
, which at this point I'm assuming means Alex Jones.
Defender
gets
Sen. Lisa Murkowski
, and
Khan
has
Sen. John Boozman
. The frontrunners both get something:
Negarir
has
The Heritage Foundation
, and
Spire
wins the endorsement of
Gov. Maggie Hassan
.
Khan
continues the good vibes with a nice On The Record appearance, and
Spire
is slammed by
Serduchka
in Iowa.
Mothma
talks about the environment somewhere, which is probably the only time it'll get a mention.
Monday:
Jimmy Fallon, an idiot, has
Reckoner
, allegedly not an idiot, on his show, and the latter benefits.
Serduchka's
WoT speech is negatively spun because she has no idea how to actually do politics, tbh. The pop artists invade
Peanuts'
campaign in Iowa and it's all very nice.
Khan
makes it two times in two days the environment gets a yell, and throws in a classic "
Negarir's
an extremist" to boot. Good stuff.
Tuesday:
McGriddles
is the next to get on this terror stuff, to good reviews.
Mothma
, likewise, does this speech thing about government and it's nice, or something.
Abbott
has eaten an onion whole, without taking off the skin or anything, but apparently that's a
massive faux pas and scandal
in America???
Negarir
is, on the one hand, good on Colbert, but also, apparently his campaign is Negative As Fuck, so that kinda cancels out.
Reckoner
gets to know the Granite State, and
Spire
gets some heat for letting the generic Democrat lose ground in the presidential polling.
The next Republican primary debate is in one week.
Wednesday:
Mothma
just can't get a break--her defense spending policy just is not cutting it!!! The
Abbott
scandal
is dying quick but it's still leaving a dent.
McGriddles
is in Iowa, so good for him. That's all.
The Week That Was
If I have to see
Spire
and
Negarir
dominating one more week, I'm going to hurl.
Week in Review
The news cycle strength is how good or bad your media was for the week, if you had any media at all. The ads just tell you who's producing what, and what's being targeted in each. Scandals are self-explanatory. The full picture has basically everything that happened, but unformatted, so you can cry while you read it.
Spoiler: News cycle strength
Abbott
-15,
Defender
-9,
Serduchka
-9,
Spire
+6,
Mothma
-6,
Reckoner
+6,
McGriddles
+4,
Peanuts
+3,
Khan
+3,
Negarir
+2,
Tilden-St. Leonard
+-.
Spoiler: Ads
Tilden-St. Leonard
> completed ad > United States >
Defender
/Integrity.
Negarir
> completed ad > United States >
Negarir
/Role of Government.
Mothma
> completed ad > United States >
Defender
/War on Terror.
Defender
> completed ad > United States >
Defender
/Military Intervention.
Abbott
> completed ad > United States >
Abbott
/Health Care.
Khan
> completed ad > United States >
Khan
/Health Care.
Serduchka
> completed ad > United States >
Serduchka
/Tax Rates.
Spire
> completed ad > United States >
Peanuts
/Role of Government.
Peanuts
> completed ad > United States >
Peanuts
/Health Care.
Reckoner
> completed ad > United States >
Spire
/Health Care.
McGriddles
> completed ad > United States >
McGriddles
/Health Care.
Spoiler: Scandals
Scandal on Abbott!
Spoiler: The rest
Abbott endorsed by Right-Wing Talk Radio > Role of Government!
Negarir endorsed by The Heritage Foundation > Social Security!
Sen. Jim DeMint is now a potential Surrogate for Negarir!
Spire endorsed by Gov. Maggie Hassan > Gun Control!
Gov. Maggie Hassan is now a potential Surrogate for Spire!
Defender endorsed by Sen. Lisa Murkowski > Issue Familiarity!
Sen. Lisa Murkowski is now a potential Surrogate for Defender!
Khan endorsed by Sen. John Boozman > Unions!
Sen. John Boozman is now a potential Surrogate for Khan!
Negarir's policy speech on the Corruption issue has backfired!
Negarir receives permanent issue penalty from policy speech on the Corruption issue.
Serduchka's policy speech on the Unions issue has backfired!
Serduchka receives permanent issue penalty from policy speech on the Unions issue.
Mothma's attack ad has backfired.
Defender's attack ad has backfired.
Abbott's attack ad has backfired.
Event "San Bernardino Terrorist Attack" has occurred.
Event increases War on Terror profile by 1 to Very High, speeches replenished.
Event caused a momentum change of +3.2 for Tilden-St. Leonard's campaign.
Event caused a momentum change of +7.6 for Defender's campaign.
Event caused a momentum change of +0.2 for Reckoner's campaign.
Event caused a momentum change of -0.1 for Peanuts's campaign.
New endorser available > Kentucky > Gov. Matt Bevin.
Mothma's policy speech on the Defense Spending issue has backfired!
Mothma receives permanent issue penalty from policy speech on the Defense Spending issue.
Gaining momentum:
McGriddles
,
Reckoner
,
Khan
Losing momentum:
Serduchka
,
Negarir
,
Spire
MAPS
Ignore McMullin. Leaders of each state are colour-coded; white states means it's too close to call. The percentage list on the right-hand side is the popular vote; the lines and segments down the bottom are PROJECTED delegates. Once delegates start being earned, that will be added separately.
Post
Post #74 (isolation #33) » Sat Jan 14, 2017 5:50 pm
Postby Drench »
The Week of December 9th
54 days until Iowa
62 days until New Hampshire
335 days until the Presidential Election
Headlines
The papers are released each day in the morning, and describe what happened the previous day. The first day of the cycle is a Wednesday, and the last a Tuesday, but the first newspapers are Thursday's, and the last Wednesday's.
Thursday's papers:
Serduchka
is SO rich everyone even the newspaper says so.
Defender
gets hit with two attack ads from
TSL
and
Khan
, but their actual impact is uncertain.
Reckoner
barnstorms on terror in Texas, and
Mothma's
latest thing is Iran.
McGriddles
is getting on board this War on Terror theme as well, btw, in between all his speeches on how he's the least corrupt of everyone, totally.
Friday:
Negarir
SCANDAL
and I am actively rooting for his downfall so let's make it a good'un. Not only did
Negarir
misuse government funds, but he used them to literally buy actual cocaine!!! Who knows if anyone will care but dang.
Abbott
is totally being really Australian with his gun policy on FNS and it somehow works out, while
Mothma
literally is so bad at this she tries to do anything and all of a sudden she's "Too Negative". The
Khan
attack ad did not take, but the
TSL
one did, and
Defender
is feeling the effects. Like an overeager twenty year old,
Spire
just keeps getting higher and higher, this time doing well on On The Record. The pop artists like
McGriddles
now, and
Khan
gets events rolling in Wyoming and Colorado.
Saturday:
I truly welcome death, because
Negarir
did real well on Fallon, while
Spire
did likewise on O'Reilly.
McGriddles
forgets the name of that thing where you nominate people to run agencies when you're President, to ill effect, and
TSL's
latest target is
Khan
. The
Negarir
scandal
has intensified, but it's also becoming yesterday's news quick, so, FML.
Sunday:
It's endorsement day! Before we get to that:
more drugs
were bought in the
Negarir
chequegate scandal, so l m f a o. And
Khan
delivers his terror policy, to rapturous applause, while
Abbott
rides the corruption-flavoured wave on Fallon, decrying any person--nudge nudge wink wink
Negarir
--who would just misuse governmental power.
Spire
, by the way, is still wall-to-wall good news, in case you were starting to get hope. Anyway, endorsements.
Negarir
,
Tea Party Express
.
Spire
,
Gov. Terry McAuliffe
.
Khan
,
Sen. David Perdue
.
Defender
,
Sen. Cory Gardner
.
Abbott
,
FreedomWorks
. And finally,
the next Democratic primary debate is in a week.
Monday:
Mothma
tries yet again with a policy speech on Terror.
Reckoner
claims that income tax is currently unfairly and neoliberally flat, which is not true.
Negarir
, to my eternal frustration, is a good candidate and does very well on Meet the Press. Likewise,
Spire
, on Colbert.
Tuesday:
Reckoner
fucks up again, this time being unable to name Daesh's main countries of operation, which is like, something you can Google. But
Negarir
's campaign might be too negative, so he might just sink yet!!! And
McGriddles
is very rich, everyone.
Khan
tries to sell us on his corruption platform while going on On The Record to talk Iran. And, finally, I give you this headline, without comment.
An interpersonal and, at times, existential debate took place here on Tuesday night, as every single candidate seemed to realize how integral distinguishing themselves really was.
Abbott
was highly successful in boasting of his religiousity and how good it was going to be for the country, and yet
Negarir
was equally as successful in tearing him and his guns policy down, considering that you must love guns to be a Republican, I think. That's not to say that the latter did well. Oh no, that was never happening after
Mothma
brutalized
Negarir
on his innumerate scandals of the past fortnight--scandals that seemed to not be taking hold, and yet were used with devestating effect in this debate. So damaging was the offense that
TSL
, a frequent visitor on those "who lost the debate" articles people do afterwards, ended up being around as good as
Negarir
--although her own boasting certainly helped.
Khan
was a non-presence, and turned in an alright, if not especially stunning performance, whilst
Defender's
contribution was to accidentally make
Mothma
look that little bit better by accusing her of somehow saving too much money in government. But, the latter did not need it. It wasn't a truly stellar performance, objectively, but
Mothma's
issue preparation and familiarity ensured she turned in a knock that was clearly the best of the night.
wins her second debate, and the press is obviously favourable--but is she going to take advantage of it this time?
Negarir
screws it on leadership, and has to deal with that gaffe for a while, whilst
TSL
comes under attack in Minnesota. Away from the debate aftermath,
McGriddles'
healthcare plan is assailed by
Reckoner
, and there are protesters literally everywhere. Like, everywhere.
The Week That Was
please jesus let negarir fall
(We're in the weird space now where candidates aren't setting up their campaigns, but we're not close enough to primaries and caucuses for day-by-day events to matter too much. This should hopefully change in a few game weeks!)
Week in Review
The news cycle strength is how good or bad your media was for the week, if you had any media at all. The ads just tell you who's producing what, and what's being targeted in each. Scandals are self-explanatory. The full picture has basically everything that happened, but unformatted, so you can cry while you read it.
Spoiler: News cycle strength
Spire
+17,
Reckoner
-14,
Serduchka
+9,
Mothma
+7,
Negarir
-5,
Defender
-5,
Khan
+5,
Tilden-St. Leonard
-4,
McGriddles
-3,
Abbott
+1,
Peanuts
-1.
Spoiler: Ads
Tilden-St. Leonard
> completed ad > United States >
Tilden-St. Leonard
/Military Intervention.
Negarir
> completed ad > United States >
Negarir
/Role of Government.
Mothma
> completed ad > United States >
Defender
/Military Intervention.
Defender
> completed ad > United States >
Defender
/War on Terror.
Khan
> completed ad > United States >
Negarir
/Government Spending.
Serduchka
> completed ad > United States >
Peanuts
/Tax Rates.
Reckoner
> completed ad > United States >
Reckoner
/War on Terror.
Spire
> completed ad > United States >
Spire
/Leadership.
McGriddles
> completed ad > United States >
McGriddles
/Tax Rates.
Abbott
> completed ad > United States >
Khan
/Government Spending.
Peanuts
> completed ad > United States >
Spire
/Leadership.
Spoiler: Scandals
Scandal on Negarir!
Scandal on Negarir!
Spoiler: The rest
Abbott endorsed by FreedomWorks > Abortion!
Negarir endorsed by Tea Party Express > Leadership!
Spire endorsed by Gov. Terry McAuliffe > War on Terror!
Gov. Terry McAuliffe is now a potential Surrogate for Spire!
Defender endorsed by Sen. Cory Gardner > War on Terror!
Sen. Cory Gardner is now a potential Surrogate for Defender!
Khan endorsed by Sen. David Perdue > Defense Spending!
Sen. David Perdue is now a potential Surrogate for Khan!
Mothma receives permanent issue bonus from policy speech on the Iran issue.
Negarir receives permanent issue bonus from policy speech on the Environment issue.
Gaining momentum:
Mothma
,
Khan
,
Serduchka
Losing momentum:
Reckoner
,
TSL
,
Defender
MAPS
Ignore McMullin. Leaders of each state are colour-coded; white states means it's too close to call. The percentage list on the right-hand side is the popular vote; the lines and segments down the bottom are PROJECTED delegates. Once delegates start being earned, that will be added separately.
REPUBLICANS
DEMOCRATS
Next time, on this thing!:
The Democrats debate. Also tbh I'm half deciding whether to release the IA/NH numbers now or wait until the dem debate next update (which, if I decide to wait, it'll come today). Let you know in like, ten.
Post
Post #78 (isolation #35) » Sat Jan 14, 2017 6:34 pm
Postby Drench »
The Week of December 16th
47 days until Iowa
55 days until New Hampshire
328 days until the Presidential Election
Headlines
The papers are released each day in the morning, and describe what happened the previous day. The first day of the cycle is a Wednesday, and the last a Tuesday, but the first newspapers are Thursday's, and the last Wednesday's.
Thursday's papers:
God
Negarir
is not having a good one. This time, he's using government offices--that cost money to rent, mind you--as a clearinghouse for an underground fake Rolex thing. I don't know what those words mean, I'm low on creativity, but just know that the extent is 6 and it's a
scandal
.
Khan
is filthy rich, and releases an attack ad on
Defender
.
Reckoner
calls for only gays to be permitted marriage licenses, which gets him in a bit of hot water, but his immigration speech is okay so that's cool.
Mothma's
win is still in the news, as
TSL
and
Negarir
meet the voters and pundits.
Friday:
The
Negarir
scandal (they're calling it
RoLax
because he was lax about record keeping or something, I don't fucking know) is building in intensity, even as he tries to deflect with some interviews on O'Reilly.
Abbott
gets heat from a
Negarir
surrogate in Nevada, whilst
Serduchka
is really negative, or something. There are also protesters in places, I don't know.
Saturday:
Khan
literally appointed prostitutes he enjoyed to governmental positions in the Mongol Empire.
Scandal
almost seems like a weak way to put this. Not that
Negarir's
shit is disappearing either, that is also Very Bad. In normal news,
Peanuts
is that rare liberal who does poorly on O'Reilly, and
TSL
trades barbs with
Negarir
on the trail, impacting them both.
Serduchka
calls for whatever it is Democrats want in military intervention nowadays to rapturous applause. Anyway let's get to this debate.
alone. That's the first thing you need to know about this debate: that everyone left the clear fifth-placer alone. And they weren't wrong:
McGriddles
did not do well, having no specific thing that even interests or that differs from any other. There were three tiers in this debate; the aforementioned holding one, the winner holding the other, and the middle three. Of them,
Serduchka
[/color and
Peanuts
fought to a draw--true, the former did try to knock the latter, but it did nothing but improve the latter's standing.
Peanuts
, riding off that, didn't convert into a winning performance, nor did his attack on
Spire
work at all. Neither did
Reckoner's
, leaving the golden boy to soar to a highly convincing win.
threaten to overwhelm all else, but some things are still poking through.
Spire
rides a high from the debate win, while
McGriddles
stumbles a bit after his own performance. And it's the traditional endorsement day, so here they are:
Negarir
,
Sen. Mark Warner
;
Defender
,
Sen. Johnny Isakson
(and he spoke well on corruption as well);
Khan
,
Sen. Chuck Grassley
;
Abbott
,
Fmr. Gov. Sarah Palin
(lmao); and in a move that'll be a big emotional blow to some:
Peanuts
,
Sen. Bernie Sanders
.
Monday:
Khan
continues to drown.
Negarir
starts to get some clear air for some well-received policy speeches, while a new
scandal
begins to emerge, this time for
Defender
.
Khan
, to be fair, is still out there, doing things in New Hampshire and on TV to relatively good reviews, but, like. Come on.
Tuesday:
TSL
keeps bringing in that dough, while
Khan
would be having a good week if it weren't fort his massive fucking
scandal
that overwhelms all else.
McGriddles
is having a not-very good week after claiming pre-existing condition protections are economically bad and therefore fully bad--as a Democrat, in a Democratic primary--while
Reckoner
keeps on in Virginia. Good stuff.
Wednesday:
Spire
gives a stirring speech blah blah blah is there anything he can't do please kill me.
Khan
continues to suffer.
Negarir
and
Reckoner
both get accused of being too negative, while
Mothma
decides campaigning is important and appears on Meet the Press, doing well in the process.
Defender
gets hit by
Negarir
on the trail; the latter's real busy today, also appearing on O'Reilly and giving a speech on free trade, to good reviews. What a week.
The Week That Was
Ironically, the Democratic primary appears more settled, but the proportional nature of Democratic delegates makes a contested convention far more likely than the inversely settled Republican primary. Anyway, this is me begging this game to make it closer.
Week in Review
The news cycle strength is how good or bad your media was for the week, if you had any media at all. The ads just tell you who's producing what, and what's being targeted in each. Scandals are self-explanatory. The full picture has basically everything that happened, but unformatted, so you can cry while you read it.
Spoiler: News cycle strength
Khan
-53,
Negarir
-43,
Peanuts
-12,
Spire
+10,
Abbott
-7,
Mothma +6
,
McGriddles
-6,
Reckoner
-5,
Tilden-St. Leonard
-3,
Serduchka
+2,
Defender -1
.
Spoiler: Ads
Tilden-St. Leonard
> completed ad > United States >
Tilden-St. Leonard
/Integrity.
Negarir
> completed ad > United States >
Tilden-St. Leonard
/Immigration.
Mothma
> completed ad > United States >
Mothma
/Leadership.
Defender
> completed ad > United States >
Mothma
/Military Intervention.
Abbott
> completed ad > United States >
Abbott
/War on Terror.
Khan
> completed ad > United States >
Khan
/War on Terror.
Serduchka
> completed ad > United States >
Serduchka
/War on Terror.
Spire
> completed ad > United States >
Spire
/Leadership.
McGriddles
> completed ad > United States >
McGriddles
/Health Care.
Reckoner
> completed ad > United States >
McGriddles
/Government Spending.
Peanuts
> completed ad > United States >
Peanuts
/Health Care.
Spoiler: Scandals
Scandal on Negarir!
Scandal on Khan!
Scandal on Defender!
Spoiler: The rest
Abbott endorsed by Fmr. Gov. Sarah Palin > Education!
Fmr. Gov. Sarah Palin is now a potential Surrogate for Abbott!
Defender endorsed by Sen. Johnny Isakson > Government Spending!
Sen. Johnny Isakson is now a potential Surrogate for Defender!
Khan endorsed by Sen. Chuck Grassley > Environment!
Sen. Chuck Grassley is now a potential Surrogate for Khan!
Peanuts endorsed by Sen. Bernie Sanders > Government Spending!
Sen. Bernie Sanders is now a potential Surrogate for Peanuts!
Negarir endorsed by Sen. Mark Warner > Immigration!
Sen. Mark Warner is now a potential Surrogate for Negarir!
Khan receives permanent issue bonus from policy speech on the Integrity issue.
Gaining momentum:
Spire
,
Abbott
,
Serduchka
Losing momentum:
Peanuts
,
Negarir
,
Khan
MAPS
Ignore McMullin. Leaders of each state are colour-coded; white states means it's too close to call. The percentage list on the right-hand side is the popular vote; the lines and segments down the bottom are PROJECTED delegates. Once delegates start being earned, that will be added separately.
REPUBLICANS
DEMOCRATS
Next time, on this thing!:
We are six updates away. It's time to start getting hype.
Last edited by Drench on Sat Jan 14, 2017 6:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Post
Post #80 (isolation #36) » Sat Jan 14, 2017 6:51 pm
Postby Drench »
The First-In-The-Nation Roundup
40 days until Iowa
48 days until New Hampshire
Let's check this out, because national polling =/= state by state polling. Everything under spoilers because there are eight images here.
The Republicans
Spoiler: Iowa
So, Abbott's doing really well in Iowa. Like, superbly well. He has unbelievable momentum in Iowa.
Is it going to last? Who the fuck knows. But there ain't many better places to start your peak than just one month before. Then again, it'd probably be way better if it were happening in two weeks, when there wasn't any more time for it to die. Notably, the nationwide leader here is fifth, although a lot of that I'd put down to the massively bad week he just had.
Spoiler: New Hampshire
Abbott is just CASHING in tbh! And if he can get these two in a row, that sets him up really well in a way the polls aren't capturing right now, imho. His momentum here is great, too.
Whether it holds: again, that's the thing. But right now, his direction is up. Once again, the nationwide leader, Negarir, is fourth. TSL is doing well. And Defender is doing so poorly he doesn't make threshold--which I won't expect to change unless something dramatic goes down.
The Democrats
Spoiler: Iowa
Here is The Problem for those who want to down Spire with a well-placed win in Iowa.
He is winning in Iowa. And his voters, when they move from him, aren't going to others--they're becoming undecided. That's the mark of voters who might just come home in the end. Notice as well, all five are receiving delegates in current polling--but Reckoner is very very very very close to being locked out. The other problem?
His momentum is down--but so is the momentum of others. He has to be second to someone, and right now, nobody's really showing any ability to be that overtaker.
Spoiler: New Hampshire
This ain't much more interesting but it's a little bit more interesting. Reckoner holds the clear lead, and enough support that it's locking out not one but two candidates from any delegates at all. Which is great, except guess who's second. Yes, it's the guy who's on track to win the whole thing according to national polling. Good stuff.
Then again, Reckoner is benefiting at the expense of literally everyone else in NH. If he can replicate that elsewhere, or anyone can replicate that at all, this may not be the coronation it's starting to feel like, what with Spire, The Candidate Who Can Do No Wrong.
This all assumes a contested convention isn't coming. It's always too early to assume until the first few primaries are done, but I'm not sure at this point whether that'll be avoided.
40 days out. 28 of those days will be taken up by the next four updates. As we get to the last week and a bit, I may do day by day updates, which will obviously be shorter and therefore faster to produce, to Increase Suspense (and also to get day-by-day maps and polling lmao).
Post
Post #82 (isolation #37) » Sat Jan 14, 2017 7:04 pm
Postby Drench »
i mean SOMEONE's leaking them and it ain't the candidate themselves
i personally expect the really big ones to drop in the fortnight before, i would bet money that campaigns are holding onto the big ones to leak at the opportune times
Post
Post #101 (isolation #39) » Sat Jan 21, 2017 7:18 pm
Postby Drench »
The Week of December 23rd
40 days until Iowa
48 days until New Hampshire
321 days until the Presidential Election
Headlines
The papers are released each day in the morning, and describe what happened the previous day. The first day of the cycle is a Wednesday, and the last a Tuesday, but the first newspapers are Thursday's, and the last Wednesday's.
Thursday's papers:
Welcome back! Where were we. Yeah so,
scandal
for
Khan
, obviously.
Abbott
tries to drop a lit attack ad, and he fucks it up.
Reckoner
jerks off to government intervention, and is applauded. Then again, he takes a hit on the whole integrity thing, so, your mileage may vary.
Spire
continues to be perfect and I hate it.
Peanuts
chats with Greta, and does it well
McGriddles
gets slammed for his government spending plans, and
Negarir
both does well with his free trade thing and also gets owned by the media for being negative.
Friday:
It Christmas.
Khan
continues to suffer his
scandal
.
Reckoner
LOVES to intervene government-wise.
Spire
gives another stirring speech aksudfhaiusdf ugh.
Mothma
hits the trail in Tennessee, and that's it. How good are Fridays.
Saturday:
Peanuts
is on Fallon and says words and it's all really great yay!!! Also
Khan
is still having a rough one.
Serduchka
is up and getting on with it in New Hampshire, which is good because there's less than seven weeks to go.
Defender
gets some pop artists on his side, while people protest
Mothma
.
Sunday:
Abbott
does really well with Colbert, somehow, and
Mothma
welcomes immigrants in a speech which goes very poorly in re the Republican base. Anyway let's get these endorsements out of the way.
Sen. Jerry Moran
,
Khan
;
Rep. Trey Gowdy
,
Negarir
;
Ann Coulter
,
Abbott
;
Sen. Michael Bennett
,
Spire
;
Sen. Pat Roberts
,
Defender
.
Monday:
Oh no!!!
Negarir
has to contend with a
scandal
now yikes. And Democrats are up in the generic ballot.
TSL
emerges from the darkness, does well on Fallon, and then I have no idea what. Oh actually no then she goes to talk a good talk on free trade so that's great.
Abbott
goes on Colbert and while he leaves a good impression, there's a gaffe on abortion (that they shoot the babies in the womb apparently) that's gonna ring out for a bit.
Serduchka
and
McGriddles
get protested, while
Khan
hammers
Negarir
for being a War on Terror extremist.
Tuesday:
That
Negarir
scandal
is expanding, and fast, and there's also a NEW one that's even worse!!! But at least he did well on Fallon.
Reckoner
does O'Reilly and somehow they don't scream each other to death about unions??
TSL
keeps on truckin' in Nevada, while
Spire
gets some heat as the leading Democrat in the race...just because, I think.
Wednesday:
While
TSL
continues mingling in Colorado, and
Abbott
cops some flack for being too negative,
Negarir
's
scandals
continue to multiply.
Spire
is ready to fight corruption, and
Khan
gets more protests in a protesty week.
The Week That Was
Week in Review
The news cycle strength is how good or bad your media was for the week, if you had any media at all. The ads just tell you who's producing what, and what's being targeted in each. Scandals are self-explanatory. The full picture has basically everything that happened, but unformatted, so you can cry while you read it.
Spoiler: News cycle strength
Khan
-27,
Negarir
-22,
Mothma
-11,
Tilden-St. Leonard
+10,
McGriddles
-9,
Abbott
-6,
Spire
+4,
Peanuts
+3,
Reckoner
-3,
Defender
-3,
Serduchka
-2.
Spoiler: Ads
Tilden-St. Leonard
> completed ad > United States >
Negarir
/Health Care.
Negarir
> completed ad > United States >
Defender
/Immigration.
Mothma
> completed ad > United States >
Mothma
/War on Terror.
Defender
> completed ad > United States >
Mothma
/Health Care.
Abbott
> completed ad > United States >
Abbott
/Health Care.
Reckoner
> completed ad > United States >
Spire
/Health Care.
Peanuts
> completed ad > United States >
Peanuts
/Health Care.
McGriddles
> completed ad > United States >
Reckoner
/Health Care.
Serduchka
> completed ad > United States >
Serduchka
/War on Terror.
Spire
> completed ad > United States >
Spire
/Tax Rates.
Spoiler: Scandals
Scandal on Negarir!
Scandal on Negarir!
Spoiler: The rest
Abbott's attack ad has backfired.
Event "Merry Christmas!" has occurred.
Event replenishes speeches for Integrity issue.
Mothma's policy speech on the Immigration issue has backfired!
Mothma receives permanent issue penalty from policy speech on the Immigration issue.
Negarir receives permanent issue bonus from policy speech on the Tax Rates issue.
Abbott endorsed by Ann Coulter > Government Spending!
Ms. Ann Coulter is now a potential Surrogate for Abbott!
Negarir endorsed by Rep. Trey Gowdy > Free Trade!
Rep. Trey Gowdy is now a potential Surrogate for Negarir!
Spire endorsed by Sen. Michael Bennett > Education!
Sen. Michael Bennett is now a potential Surrogate for Spire!
Defender endorsed by Sen. Pat Roberts > Same-Sex Marriage!
Sen. Pat Roberts is now a potential Surrogate for Defender!
Khan endorsed by Sen. Jerry Moran > Role of Government!
Sen. Jerry Moran is now a potential Surrogate for Khan!
Gaining momentum:
TSL
,
Spire
,
Reckoner
Losing momentum:
Negarir
,
Mothma
,
Khan
MAPS
Ignore McMullin. Leaders of each state are colour-coded; white states means it's too close to call. The percentage list on the right-hand side is the popular vote; the lines and segments down the bottom are PROJECTED delegates. Once delegates start being earned, that will be added separately.
Post
Post #102 (isolation #40) » Sat Jan 21, 2017 8:15 pm
Postby Drench »
The Week of December 30th
33 days until Iowa
41 days until New Hampshire
314 days until the Presidential Election
Headlines
The papers are released each day in the morning, and describe what happened the previous day. The first day of the cycle is a Wednesday, and the last a Tuesday, but the first newspapers are Thursday's, and the last Wednesday's.
Thursday's papers:
It New Year's Eve. Happy New Year's Eve.
Defender
is just nailing it talking about the War on Terror, while
Negarir
is rrrreallly suffering, his good showing on Fox News nonwithstanding.
Spire
talks tax on O'Reilly, to good effect, as does
Serduchka
.
TSL
gets the knife stuck into
Negarir
on the trail, while
Abbott
tries to solidify his position in New Hampshire.
Friday:
TSL
is RICH babes!!!!
Negarir
continues to take hits, while
Khan
cops it a bit for being negative.
Reckoner
is on the end of a harsh
McGriddles
attack ad, as
Mothma
finds herself confronting protesters at an event.
Saturday:
Defender
? Meet the Press? A match made in heaven.
Negarir
both does well on O'Reilly and continues suffering elsewhere. And a lot of people did a lot of things and it had no effect whatsoever. So, like, whatever.
Sunday:
Lookit,
Khan
did super well on Meet the Press, and
Serduchka
gives a speech that moves no needles.
Abbott
is probably hoping for that after a badly received speech on integrity, and
Peanuts
gets along with Maddow. And, endorsements.
Gov. Robert Bentley
,
Abbott
;
Gov. Asa Hutchinson
,
Negarir
;
Sen. Rand Paul
,
Khan
;
Sen. Mitch McConnell
,
Defender
.
Monday:
Democrats continue to beat Republicans in the generic, while
Reckoner
barnstorms in Minnesota.
Khan
has a new
scandal
to deal with, and slams
Defender
's leadership.
Negarir
gets protested, but his plan for The Gays is applauded.
Tuesday:
Abbott
runs into a minor
scandal
about the legitimacy of his onion bite.
Khan
hops onto Maddow and doesn't fuck it.
Defender
loves corruption but in that way where you hate it except for how it gives you higher poll numbers.
Well, Negarir's hold on the lead has softened, and that's great for fans of close elections. His entire advantage here is his endorsement strength, so unless that really puts a dent in anyone else's plans, it looks like this thing is wide wide open.
Okay so Spire still has some advantage here. It's mainly that as a candidate, he is just very very good, and his polling is solid. But, you take just one of those away, and this is very close. So there's a tightening going on.
Week in Review
The news cycle strength is how good or bad your media was for the week, if you had any media at all. The ads just tell you who's producing what, and what's being targeted in each. Scandals are self-explanatory. The full picture has basically everything that happened, but unformatted, so you can cry while you read it.
Spoiler: News cycle strength
Negarir
-27,
Abbott
-10,
Tilden-St. Leonard
+5,
Serduchka
+4,
Mothma
-4,
Khan
-3,
Defender
+3,
Spire
+1,
Peanuts
+1,
Reckoner
-1.
Spoiler: Ads
Khan
> completed ad > United States >
Defender
/Leadership.
Tilden-St. Leonard
> completed ad > United States >
Tilden-St. Leonard
/Military Intervention.
Mothma
> completed ad > United States >
Negarir
/Leadership.
Defender
> completed ad > United States >
Defender
/Immigration.
Abbott
> completed ad > United States >
Abbott
/Health Care.
Khan
> completed ad > United States >
Defender
/Leadership.
Reckoner
> completed ad > United States >
Reckoner
/Health Care.
Spire
> completed ad > United States >
Spire
/War on Terror.
Peanuts
> completed ad > United States >
Peanuts
/Health Care.
McGriddles
> completed ad > United States >
Reckoner
/Government Spending.
Serduchka
> completed ad > United States >
Reckoner
/Health Care.
Spoiler: Scandals
Scandal on Khan!
Scandal on Abbott!
Spoiler: The rest
Event "Happy New Year's Eve!" has occurred.
Event replenishes speeches for Integrity issue.
Khan receives permanent issue bonus from policy speech on the Corruption issue.
Event "Happy New Year's!" has occurred.
Event replenishes speeches for Integrity issue.
New endorser available > Northern Mariana Islands > Gov. Ralph Torres.
Abbott's policy speech on the Integrity issue has backfired!
Abbott receives permanent issue penalty from policy speech on the Integrity issue.
Defender receives permanent issue bonus from policy speech on the Corruption issue.
REP primaries debate in 8 days.
DEM primaries debate in 11 days.
Abbott endorsed by Gov. Robert Bentley > Immigration!
Gov. Robert Bentley is now a potential Surrogate for Abbott!
Negarir endorsed by Gov. Asa Hutchinson > Tax Rates!
Gov. Asa Hutchinson is now a potential Surrogate for Negarir!
Defender endorsed by Sen. Mitch McConnell > Education!
Sen. Mitch McConnell is now a potential Surrogate for Defender!
Khan endorsed by Sen. Rand Paul > Corruption!
Sen. Rand Paul is now a potential Surrogate for Khan!
Gaining momentum:
Reckoner, McGriddles, Peanuts
Losing momentum:
Negarir, Defender, Mothma
MAPS
Ignore McMullin. Leaders of each state are colour-coded; white states means it's too close to call. The percentage list on the right-hand side is the popular vote; the lines and segments down the bottom are PROJECTED delegates. Once delegates start being earned, that will be added separately.
REPUBLICANS
DEMOCRATS
Next time, on this thing!:
asdlfihasiudfh the republicans are literally going apeshit and there's 4 weeks until iowa keep it COMING
Post
Post #103 (isolation #41) » Sat Jan 21, 2017 8:46 pm
Postby Drench »
The Week of January 6th, 2016
26 days until Iowa
34 days until New Hampsire
307 days until the Presidential Election
Headlines
The papers are released each day in the morning, and describe what happened the previous day. The first day of the cycle is a Wednesday, and the last a Tuesday, but the first newspapers are Thursday's, and the last Wednesday's.
Thursday's papers:
Wew lads! It's 2016 which means we are literally less than four weeks from Iowa. So.
Serduchka
gives a speech.
Reckoner
tries to go on the attack and fails.
Peanuts
is protested. That's actually it, what a boring day. Oh, and the
next Republican debate is in a week.
Friday:
Reckoner
and
Negarir
are stumping in the early states, to good effect.
Reckoner's
attack ad causes a couple more problems for him.
Spire
gives an unnoticed speech.
TSL
apparently only attacks other people nowadays; this time being on
Negarir's
back.
Saturday:
Reckoner
gets protested so does
TSL
But, on the bright side,
Abbott's
gun control policies (aka be sane) are a hit on Fallon. That
Spire
speech gets spun a little negatively by
Reckoner
. Literally this week is so slow.
Sunday:
Serduchka
manages to arrive at the Fox News Sunday studios on an actual Sunday, so we're all very proud. Also her campaign is too negative apparently so asodiufhbasiudofas.
Reckoner
is good on Maddow, as well, but we're really here for the weekly endorsements.
Sen. Dean Heller
,
Defender
;
Gov. Matt Bevin
,
Abbott
;
Sen. Kelly Ayotte
,
Khan
;
Sen. Dick Durban
,
McGriddles
;
Gov. Nathan Deal
,
Negarir
; and
Sen. Joe Donnelly
,
Serduchka
.
The next Democratic debate is in a week.
Monday:
Negarir
is being a bit negative, yikes! Dems are still ahead in the generic, while
Mothma
lets everyone know that she's got the most integrity.
Spire
is slammed by
McGriddles
, and both
Abbott
and
TSL
are protested at their events. And
Reckoner
gets a concert!
Tuesday:
Khan
just can't stop having
scandals
!!! Although this one is kinda minor. Both
Negarir
and
McGriddles
are quite good on Meet the Press.
Mothma
fumbles a speech on experience, while
Serduchka
and
Reckoner
are good with Greta.
Spire
makes a keynote speech on gun control, but also takes some heat for not being better in the generic against Republicans.
Wednesday:
The
Khan
scandal
continues apace, although it's slowing.
McGriddles
hits up Virginia, and surprisingly well, too. That is all the new news apparently.
The Week That Was
for some reason this was a super slow week but i'm not complaining because spire got owned
i root for close elections thanks
Week in Review
The news cycle strength is how good or bad your media was for the week, if you had any media at all. The ads just tell you who's producing what, and what's being targeted in each. Scandals are self-explanatory. The full picture has basically everything that happened, but unformatted, so you can cry while you read it.
Spoiler: News cycle strength
Khan
-9,
Negarir
-8,
Mothma
-5,
McGriddles
+4,
Spire
-3,
Tilden-St. Leonard
-2,
Defender
-2,
Abbott
-2,
Peanuts
-1,
Reckoner
+-,
Serduchka
+-.
Spoiler: Ads
Tilden-St. Leonard
> completed ad > United States >
Tilden-St. Leonard
/Military Intervention.
Negarir
> completed ad > United States >
Abbott
/War on Terror.
Mothma
> completed ad > United States >
Mothma
/War on Terror.
Defender
> completed ad > United States >
Defender
/Immigration.
Abbott
> completed ad > United States >
Abbott
/Military Intervention.
Khan
> completed ad > United States >
Negarir
/War on Terror.
Serduchka
> completed ad > United States >
Serduchka
/War on Terror.
Reckoner
> completed ad > United States >
Reckoner
/War on Terror.
Spire
> completed ad > United States >
Peanuts
/War on Terror.
Peanuts
> completed ad > United States >
Peanuts
/Health Care.
McGriddles
> completed ad > United States >
McGriddles
/Health Care.
Spoiler: Scandals
Scandal on Khan!
Spoiler: The rest
Reckoner's attack ad has backfired.
Mothma receives permanent issue bonus from policy speech on the Integrity issue.
New endorser available > Louisiana > Gov. John Bel Edwards.
Mothma's policy speech on the Experience issue has backfired!
Mothma receives permanent issue penalty from policy speech on the Experience issue.
Negarir endorsed by Gov. Nathan Deal > Education!
Gov. Nathan Deal is now a potential Surrogate for Negarir!
Abbott endorsed by Gov. Matt Bevin > War on Terror!
Gov. Matt Bevin is now a potential Surrogate for Abbott!
McGriddles endorsed by Sen. Dick Durbin > Gun Control!
Sen. Dick Durbin is now a potential Surrogate for McGriddles!
Serduchka endorsed by Sen. Joe Donnelly > Issue Familiarity!
Sen. Joe Donnelly is now a potential Surrogate for Serduchka!
Defender endorsed by Sen. Dean Heller > Education!
Sen. Dean Heller is now a potential Surrogate for Defender!
Khan endorsed by Sen. Kelly Ayotte > Unions!
Sen. Kelly Ayotte is now a potential Surrogate for Khan!
Gaining momentum:
Reckoner, McGriddles, Serduchka
Losing momentum:
Negarir
,
Spire
,
Khan
MAPS
Ignore McMullin. Leaders of each state are colour-coded; white states means it's too close to call. The percentage list on the right-hand side is the popular vote; the lines and segments down the bottom are PROJECTED delegates. Once delegates start being earned, that will be added separately.
Post
Post #104 (isolation #42) » Sat Jan 21, 2017 11:49 pm
Postby Drench »
The Week of January 13th
19 days until Iowa
27 days until New Hampshire
300 days until the Presidential Election
less than three weeks. take a fucking sip, babes
Headlines
The papers are released each day in the morning, and describe what happened the previous day. The first day of the cycle is a Wednesday, and the last a Tuesday, but the first newspapers are Thursday's, and the last Wednesday's.
Thursday's papers:
Let's roll.
Defender
is out on the streets decrying corruption (which only Democrats do anyway) and hitting up Colbert about free trade. And yikes for
Abbott
; a
scandal
is taking hold, although it seems minor. We've got protesters at
Negarir
and
Serduchka
events, whilst
Khan
cops a spray from
Mothma
. And
McGriddles
has an okay run on Meet the Press. So basically, the stage is set for this debate.
has another favourable news cycle, but here's the thing: can she finally capitalize on it? History suggests no, but she's got a boost in the news for the time being.
Negarir
is back out, talking on the issues (literally just how much he knows about the issues), and
McGriddles
awkwardly says he doesn't have integrity.
Abbott's
troubles are fading as expected,
Spire
gets some protesting, and yep. That's all.
Saturday:
Negarir
leads the papers with a well-received speech on how killing terrorists is good.
Reckoner
hits up Vermont and its proclivity to spend money, while also calling for unions to continue existing, which people are into. And
Mothma
has not tried to further spin her debate win, so wow, colour me shocked.
Sunday:
Negarir
leads again! Except, this time, for being too negative, so yikes.
Peanuts
and
Mothma
both do well on Meet the Press and Colbert, respectively, while
Defender
does a good barnstorm on integrity. And now, endorsements.
Gov. Terry Branstad
,
Abbott
;
Sen. Jim Inhofe
,
Khan
; and
Sen. Ed Markey
,
Serduchka
. Is it going to affect the debate? Probably not, but eh.
is raising an absolute fuckton of money and that's good for him, especially since questions about his negativity remain.
Mothma
does pretty well on Colbert, and
Serduchka
suffers some protesters at an event.
Tuesday:
Negarir
is just having a really big week. The fundraiser is still news, and a really good run on Fox News Sunday is bumping him up a lil bit more.
Spire's
debate win has been spun into uselessness, to the delight of many, and
Serduchka
gives a rallying cry consisting of the words "let's spend more money".
Wednesday:
Khan
will not be outdone!!! He has also made money.
Abbott
is being too negative, and
Reckoner
hits up Nevada. And a lot of sniping's going on as well.
Peanuts
cops it from
Serduchka
, and
Defender
targets
Mothma
, while
Peanuts
tries for
McGriddles
in Minnesota.
The Week That Was
Week in Review
The news cycle strength is how good or bad your media was for the week, if you had any media at all. The ads just tell you who's producing what, and what's being targeted in each. Scandals are self-explanatory. The full picture has basically everything that happened, but unformatted, so you can cry while you read it.
Spoiler: News cycle strength
Mothma
+14,
Negarir
+11,
Abbott
-9,
Reckoner
+8,
Defender
+5,
Spire
+4,
Serduchka
-4,
McGriddles
-3,
Peanuts
+1,
Khan
+-.
Spoiler: Ads
Mothma
> completed ad > United States >
Mothma
/War on Terror.
Defender
> completed ad > United States >
Mothma
/Free Trade.
Abbott
> completed ad > United States >
Khan
/Government Spending.
Khan
> completed ad > United States >
Negarir
/War on Terror.
Serduchka
> completed ad > United States >
Serduchka
/Military Intervention.
Spire
> completed ad > United States >
Spire
/Immigration.
McGriddles
> completed ad > United States >
McGriddles
/Health Care.
Tilden-St. Leonard
> completed ad > United States >
Tilden-St. Leonard
/Military Intervention.
Reckoner
> completed ad > United States >
Spire
/War on Terror.
Peanuts
> completed ad > United States >
McGriddles
/War on Terror.
Spoiler: Scandals
Scandal on Abbott!
Spoiler: The rest
Abbott endorsed by Gov. Terry Branstad > Integrity!
Gov. Terry Branstad is now a potential Surrogate for Abbott!
Serduchka endorsed by Sen. Ed Markey > Health Care!
Sen. Ed Markey is now a potential Surrogate for Serduchka!
Khan endorsed by Sen. Jim Inhofe > Military Intervention!
Sen. Jim Inhofe is now a potential Surrogate for Khan!
Gaining momentum:
Negarir, Khan, Mothma
Losing momentum:
McGriddles, Spire, Peanuts
MAPS
Ignore McMullin. Leaders of each state are colour-coded; white states means it's too close to call. The percentage list on the right-hand side is the popular vote; the lines and segments down the bottom are PROJECTED delegates. Once delegates start being earned, that will be added separately.
REPUBLICANS
DEMOCRATS
Next time, on this thing!:
Next update is the last weekly one before Iowa. Also your last update on the numbers in Iowa.
Post
Post #106 (isolation #43) » Sun Jan 22, 2017 12:03 am
Postby Drench »
your candidate is like, maxed out on the key character attributes (leadership/experience/integrity), and your campaign is maxed out on corruption (1, i.e. least corrupt), so it's definitely a matter of allocation
the problem is that it didn't leave room for much else but it doesn't seem to be hurting right now because your attributes are weighted towards winning the primary (literally, in primary rather than general), so i think it'd be super interesting to watch the general if you do get up
Post
Post #112 (isolation #45) » Sun Jan 22, 2017 3:08 pm
Postby Drench »
The Week of January 20th
12 days until Iowa
20 days until New Hampshire
293 days until the Presidential Election
Headlines
The papers are released each day in the morning, and describe what happened the previous day. The first day of the cycle is a Wednesday, and the last a Tuesday, but the first newspapers are Thursday's, and the last Wednesday's.
Thursday's papers:
Twelve days.
Peanuts
is hard at work attacking
McGriddles
via advertisement, while the latter shines on Meet the Press.
Khan
keeps earning money, which is great, but also Iowa is in 12 so like, priorities. And to his credit, he's got a surrogate out in Massachusetts (of all places), but there are protesters there, so.
Mothma
endures a few protesters, while
Negarir
is also flush with cash and makes a nice impression on FNS.
Reckoner's
John Kerry is up in Nevada,
Abbott
is accused of being too negative, and
Mothma
hits a bum note in a speech on corruption.
The next Republican primary debate is in a week.
Friday:
khan
rich good rich.
Mothma
is nailing it on integrity, which is nice. More protests at
Defender
events in Tennessee,
Peanuts
goes double in Iowa, and
Spire's
speech on integrity is not that enthralling but is in fact the opposite.
Saturday:
Someone's been mining the oppo mines today folks!!! TWO
Abbott
scandals[/b]
AND a
Peanuts
scandal[/b]
drops today, and wow, they're all pretty meaty. I have no clue what actually happened but I'm gonna assume that they all did pretty sordid stuff like have orgies or something because it's integrity all the way down folks. Away from that catastrophe,
TSL
does well with Greta, and
Mothma
continues her positive press with a good speech on government spending.
Serduchka
gaffes on corruption, calling it "good", while
McGriddles
slams
Reckoner
as an extremist on the War on Terror, somehow.
Sunday:
Well, congrats to
Abbott
, who had so much bad press that nobody bothered to spin it. No congratulations to
Peanuts
, for whom that is not applying.
Khan
goes in on military intervention on FNS, while
Negarir
gets some heat for his negativity Also,
Reckoner
is chilling in Alabama for some reason, and he hates
McGriddles
right back about the War on Terror. And we also have the second last round of endorsements before Iowa, folks.
Sen. Elizabeth Warren
,
McGriddles
;
Sen. Lamar Alexander
,
Khan
;
Sen. Lindsey Graham
,
Mothma
;
Gov. Sam Brownback
,
Abbott
; and
Gov. Jerry Brown
,
Negarir
(!). And lastly, this headline is presented without comment.
Monday:
I can't deal with the front page. Literally it's just
Abbott
,
Abbott
,
Peanuts
. Sucks to suck.
Negarir
continues battling questions of negativity.
Serduchka
and
Peanuts
both are good on the pundit shows, and now, Republicans have drawn level with Democrats in the generic.
TSL
gets attacked by
Negarir
(how negative!), and
Spire
comes under fire from Sec. of State John Fucking Kerry in Arkansas.
Defender
keeps on keepin' on in Oklahoma, and Hardball welcomes good performer
Reckoner
.
Tuesday:
God, I mean,
Peanuts
apparently has negative momentum. No shit.
Khan
does well on FNS as Iowa inches closer, while those
scandals
are still a few days from disappearing.
McGriddles
tries his best to talk about education on Maddow, and mostly succeeds, while
Abbott
tries to push past all other questions and talk about immigration instead on On The Record. He's also in Vermont, where he gets protested; so does
Khan
at a Bush 43 event.
There is one week until Iowa for the Republicans and Democrats.
Wednesday:
TSL
is rich!!!! Sky is blue!!!!! Water is wet!!!!!!!!!! As if he couldn't handle more bad news,
Peanuts
royally fucks a speech on tax, while
Reckoner
keeps on with education.
McGriddles
, not to be outdone by the latter, tries also to make a great speech, and fails dramatically
Negarir
lays out how he's got the most integrity, or something, and
Mothma
attacks
Abbott
for being a terrible leader who'll probably get rolled in six months.
See you in Iowa.
The Week That Was
I literally have no fucking clue what's going to happen. Four in ten voters on the Democratic side are undecided in Iowa. Abbott's got a pretty solid lead, but there's five days for this momentum to play out. Who knows. Far out.
Week in Review
The news cycle strength is how good or bad your media was for the week, if you had any media at all. The ads just tell you who's producing what, and what's being targeted in each. Scandals are self-explanatory. The full picture has basically everything that happened, but unformatted, so you can cry while you read it.
Spoiler: News cycle strength
Abbott
-58,
Peanuts
-49,
Khan
+23,
Negarir
-10,
Spire
-6,
McGriddles
-5,
Mothma
+5,
Reckoner
+3,
Tilden-St. Leonard
+3,
Serduchka
-2,
Defender
+1.
Spoiler: Ads
Tilden-St. Leonard
> completed ad > United States >
Tilden-St. Leonard
/War on Terror.
Negarir
> completed ad > United States >
Negarir
/Leadership.
Negarir
> completed ad > United States >
Khan
/Immigration.
Mothma
> completed ad > United States >
Mothma
/Leadership.
Khan
> completed ad > United States >
Khan
/Immigration.
Serduchka
> completed ad > United States >
Peanuts
/Military Intervention.
Reckoner
> completed ad > United States >
McGriddles
/War on Terror.
Spire
> completed ad > United States >
Serduchka
/Leadership.
Peanuts
> completed ad > United States >
Peanuts
/War on Terror.
Defender
> completed ad > United States >
Defender
/Immigration.
Spoiler: Scandals
Scandal on Abbott!
Scandal on Abbott!
Scandal on Peanuts!
Spoiler: The rest
Democratic Iowa Caucuses in 5 days!
Republican Iowa Caucuses in 5 days!
REP primaries debate tomorrow.
REP primaries debate in 10 days.
DEM primaries debate in 8 days.
Peanuts's policy speech on the Tax Rates issue has backfired!
Peanuts receives permanent issue penalty from policy speech on the Tax Rates issue.
Negarir endorsed by Gov. Jerry Brown > Military Intervention!
Gov. Jerry Brown is now a potential Surrogate for Negarir!
Abbott endorsed by Gov. Sam Brownback > Iran!
Gov. Sam Brownback is now a potential Surrogate for Abbott!
McGriddles endorsed by Sen. Elizabeth Warren > Defense Spending!
Sen. Elizabeth Warren is now a potential Surrogate for McGriddles!
Mothma endorsed by Sen. Lindsey Graham > Integrity!
Sen. Lindsey Graham is now a potential Surrogate for Mothma!
Khan endorsed by Sen. Lamar Alexander > Education!
Sen. Lamar Alexander is now a potential Surrogate for Khan!
Gaining momentum:
Khan, TSL, Mothma
Losing momentum:
Peanuts
,
Abbott
,
McGriddles
MAPS
Ignore McMullin. Leaders of each state are colour-coded; white states means it's too close to call. The percentage list on the right-hand side is the popular vote; the lines and segments down the bottom are PROJECTED delegates. Once delegates start being earned, that will be added separately.
REPUBLICANS
DEMOCRATS
Next time, on this thing!:
So, up next, your last look at Iowa in depth before the election happens. Then, we go day-by-day. And, five day-by-days later, Iowa is in. whew
Post
Post #114 (isolation #47) » Sun Jan 22, 2017 3:27 pm
Postby Drench »
January 27th
5 days until Iowa
13 days until New Hampshire
286 days until the Presidential Election
Headlines
Five days. The
scandals
have not disappeared for
Abbott
and
Peanuts
.
TSL
holds a fundraiser, does well on Meet the Press, but gets attacked for being too negative.
Spire
is pretty good on Fallon.
Peanuts
, too, does it good on Meet the Press, but he did fuck up that speech on tax, so. Protesters are spotted at
TSL
,
Mothma
and
Negarir
events. Endorsements, now.
Sen. Amy Klobuchar
,
Serduchka
;
Sen. John Cornyn
,
Khan
;
Sen. Bob Corker
,
Mothma
; and
Gov. Nikki Haley
,
Abbott
.
The next Democratic primary debate is in a week.
In Review
The news cycle strength is how good or bad your media was for the week, if you had any media at all. The ads just tell you who's producing what, and what's being targeted in each. Scandals are self-explanatory. The full picture has basically everything that happened, but unformatted, so you can cry while you read it.
Spoiler: News cycle strength
Abbott
-6,
Peanuts
-4,
Spire
+3,
McGriddles
-2,
Tilden-St. Leonard
-1,
Negarir
-1,
Mothma
-1,
Serduchka
+-,
Reckoner
+-,
Khan
+-.
Spoiler: Ads
No ads produced.
Spoiler: Scandals
No new ones today.
Spoiler: The rest
Republican Iowa Caucuses in 4 days!
Democratic Iowa Caucuses in 4 days!
REP primaries debate tonight!
REP primaries debate in 9 days.
DEM primaries debate in 7 days.
Abbott endorsed by Gov. Nikki Haley > Free Trade!
Gov. Nikki Haley is now a potential Surrogate for Abbott!
Serduchka endorsed by Sen. Amy Klobuchar > Role of Government!
Sen. Amy Klobuchar is now a potential Surrogate for Serduchka!
Mothma endorsed by Sen. Bob Corker > Experience!
Sen. Bob Corker is now a potential Surrogate for Mothma!
Khan endorsed by Sen. John Cornyn > Government Spending!
Sen. John Cornyn is now a potential Surrogate for Khan!
Gaining momentum:
Khan, Mothma
Losing momentum:
Peanuts
,
Abbott
,
McGriddles
MAPS
Ignore McMullin. Leaders of each state are colour-coded; white states means it's too close to call. The percentage list on the right-hand side is the popular vote; the lines and segments down the bottom are PROJECTED delegates. Once delegates start being earned, that will be added separately.
The last debate before Iowa, and all through the house, not a creature was stirring, especially the five other people who weren't the winner.
Abbott
did predictably badly, owing to his usually terrible charisma, and landed in the negatives.
TSL
tried her best to at least make a dent, but her attack on
Defender
was successfully parried, and her issue familiarity once again is a massive weight around her neck. But, that's not to say
Defender
did great either, because he tried to boast and it just fell flat. Where it didn't fall flat was
Khan
and
Mothma
, who both at least managed to get words in the right order when talking about their own achievements. But, that leaves one, who soared above the rest, and managed to put
Khan
in his place;
Negarir
. Of course, Iowa has always been
Abbott's
to lose, despite his bad debate performances. Is it going to matter?
still faces a minor hiccup from his debate faux pas.
Serduchka
has surrogates all up in Vermont, while
Mothma
is still getting protested.
Defender
has stuff going in Tennessee, and there's a lot more endorsements.
Sen. John Barrasso
,
Khan
;
Gov. Bill Haslam
,
Abbott
;
Sen. Al Franken
,
McGriddles
; and
Sen. Mike Enzi
,
Mothma
.
In Review
The news cycle strength is how good or bad your media was for the week, if you had any media at all. The ads just tell you who's producing what, and what's being targeted in each. Scandals are self-explanatory. The full picture has basically everything that happened, but unformatted, so you can cry while you read it.
Spoiler: News cycle strength
Negarir
+5,
Tilden-St. Leonard
-4,
McGriddles
+3,
Khan
+2,
Mothma
-2,
Abbott
-1,
Peanuts
+1,
Defender
+1,
Serduchka
+-,
Spire
+-.
Spoiler: Ads
No ads produced.
Spoiler: Scandals
No new ones today.
Spoiler: The rest
Republican Iowa Caucuses in 3 days!
Democratic Iowa Caucuses in 3 days!
REP primaries debate in 8 days.
DEM primaries debate in 6 days.
DEM primaries debate in 13 days.
Abbott endorsed by Gov. Bill Haslam > Health Care!
Gov. Bill Haslam is now a potential Surrogate for Abbott!
McGriddles endorsed by Sen. Al Franken > Social Security!
Sen. Al Franken is now a potential Surrogate for McGriddles!
Mothma endorsed by Sen. Mike Enzi > Role of Government!
Sen. Mike Enzi is now a potential Surrogate for Mothma!
Khan endorsed by Sen. John Barrasso > Free Trade!
Sen. John Barrasso is now a potential Surrogate for Khan!
Gaining momentum:
Negarir, Mothma, Khan
Losing momentum:
Peanuts
,
Abbott
,
Reckoner
MAPS
Ignore McMullin. Leaders of each state are colour-coded; white states means it's too close to call. The percentage list on the right-hand side is the popular vote; the lines and segments down the bottom are PROJECTED delegates. Once delegates start being earned, that will be added separately.
Post
Post #116 (isolation #49) » Sun Jan 22, 2017 4:00 pm
Postby Drench »
January 29th
3 days until Iowa
11 days until New Hampshire
284 days until the Presidential Election
Headlines
Three days.
Abbott
is a petty binch and spun
Negarir's
debate out of positive existence asudhfaiusdf.
Reckoner
talks tax on Maddow because his fingers are on the Iowan PULSE (apparently though it was good. But,
McGriddles
isn't done with him and attacks him again on his War on Terror policies whew.
Peanuts
does alright on Meet the Press, and a lot of people do a lot of things that have no positive or negative slant whatsoever, including
Khan
and
McGriddles
appearances on pundit shows. And, golly, more endorsements still.
Abbott
gets
Gov. Greg Abbott
(lmao).
In Review
The news cycle strength is how good or bad your media was for the week, if you had any media at all. The ads just tell you who's producing what, and what's being targeted in each. Scandals are self-explanatory. The full picture has basically everything that happened, but unformatted, so you can cry while you read it.
Spoiler: News cycle strength
Tilden-St. Leonard
-2,
Abbott
+1,
Reckoner
+1,
Peanuts
+1,
Khan
+-,
McGriddles
+-,
Negarir
+-,
Mothma
+-,
Spire
+-.
Spoiler: Ads
Abbott
> completed ad > United States >
Mothma
/Government Spending.
McGriddles
> completed ad > United States >
McGriddles
/Government Spending.
Spoiler: Scandals
No new ones today.
Spoiler: The rest
Republican Iowa Caucuses in 2 days!
Democratic Iowa Caucuses in 2 days!
Republican New Hampshire Primary in 10 days!
Democratic New Hampshire Primary in 10 days!
REP primaries debate in 7 days.
DEM primaries debate in 5 days.
DEM primaries debate in 12 days.
Abbott endorsed by Gov. Greg Abbott > War on Terror!
Gov. Greg Abbott is now a potential Surrogate for Abbott!
Gaining momentum:
Negarir, Defender
Losing momentum:
Peanuts
,
TSL
,
Abbott
MAPS
Ignore McMullin. Leaders of each state are colour-coded; white states means it's too close to call. The percentage list on the right-hand side is the popular vote; the lines and segments down the bottom are PROJECTED delegates. Once delegates start being earned, that will be added separately.
Post
Post #119 (isolation #51) » Sun Jan 22, 2017 4:29 pm
Postby Drench »
January 30th
2 days until Iowa
10 days until New Hampshire
283 days until the Presidential Election
Headlines
Dos.
Spire
talks up his government spending policy, while
Abbott
tries to hit
Mothma
on the same.
Negarir
loves guns a lot and his speech lets you know it. That's all the news. Literally. Also, endorsements, I guess.
Sen. Jeanne Shaheen
goes for
McGriddles
, and
Abbott
gets another one in the form of
Gov. Matt Mead.
In Review
The news cycle strength is how good or bad your media was for the week, if you had any media at all. The ads just tell you who's producing what, and what's being targeted in each. Scandals are self-explanatory. The full picture has basically everything that happened, but unformatted, so you can cry while you read it.
Spoiler: News cycle strength
Spire
+3,
Negarir
+2,
Reckoner
+1,
Abbott
+-,
Mothma
+-,
Khan
+-,
Tilden-St. Leonard
+-,
McGriddles
+-.
Spoiler: Ads
No new productions today.
Spoiler: Scandals
No new ones today.
Spoiler: The rest
Republican Iowa Caucuses in 1 day!
Democratic Iowa Caucuses in 1 day!
Republican New Hampshire Primary in 9 days!
Democratic New Hampshire Primary in 9 days!
REP primaries debate in 13 days.
REP primaries debate in 6 days.
DEM primaries debate in 4 days.
DEM primaries debate in 11 days.
Abbott endorsed by Gov. Matt Mead > Government Spending!
Gov. Matt Mead is now a potential Surrogate for Abbott!
McGriddles endorsed by Sen. Jeanne Shaheen > Military Intervention!
Sen. Jeanne Shaheen is now a potential Surrogate for McGriddles!
Spire receives permanent issue bonus from policy speech on the Government Spending issue.
Gaining momentum:
Negarir, Defender,
Serduchka
Losing momentum:
Reckoner
,
TSL
,
McGriddles
MAPS
Ignore McMullin. Leaders of each state are colour-coded; white states means it's too close to call. The percentage list on the right-hand side is the popular vote; the lines and segments down the bottom are PROJECTED delegates. Once delegates start being earned, that will be added separately.
Post
Post #120 (isolation #52) » Sun Jan 22, 2017 4:45 pm
Postby Drench »
January 31st
1 day until Iowa
9 days until New Hampshire
282 days until the Presidential Election
Headlines
Uno. Republicans and Democrats are dead even in the generic.
Reckoner
faces lingering questions about his negative campaign.
Negarir
gives a compelling speech on government spending, meets voters in Georgia, and does Maddow, for a busy day.
Abbott
gets another endorsement, from
Sen. Dan Sullivan
.
TSL
is also in Georgia, and is doing well on the whole invade countries thing. And of course, the Iowa caucus is tonight.
In Review
The news cycle strength is how good or bad your media was for the week, if you had any media at all. The ads just tell you who's producing what, and what's being targeted in each. Scandals are self-explanatory. The full picture has basically everything that happened, but unformatted, so you can cry while you read it.
Spoiler: News cycle strength
Negarir
+7,
Reckoner
-3,
Mothma
-2,
Tilden-St. Leonard
+1,
Serduchka
+1,
Abbott
+-,
Spire
+-,
McGriddles
+-.
Spoiler: Ads
Negarir
> completed ad > United States >
Defender
/Immigration.
Abbott
> completed ad > United States >
Defender
/Health Care.
Khan
> completed ad > United States >
Khan
/Health Care.
Serduchka
> completed ad > United States >
Serduchka
/War on Terror.
Spire
> completed ad > United States >
Reckoner
/Leadership.
Peanuts
> completed ad > United States >
Peanuts
/Leadership.
McGriddles
> completed ad > United States >
Reckoner
/War on Terror.
Spoiler: Scandals
No new ones today.
Spoiler: The rest
Republican Iowa Caucuses today!
Democratic Iowa Caucuses today!
Republican New Hampshire Primary in 8 days!
Democratic New Hampshire Primary in 8 days!
REP primaries debate in 12 days.
REP primaries debate in 5 days.
DEM primaries debate in 3 days.
DEM primaries debate in 10 days.
Abbott endorsed by Sen. Dan Sullivan > Issue Familiarity!
Sen. Dan Sullivan is now a potential Surrogate for Abbott!
Gaining momentum:
Negarir, Defender
Losing momentum:
Reckoner
,
Khan
,
McGriddles
MAPS
Ignore McMullin. Leaders of each state are colour-coded; white states means it's too close to call. The percentage list on the right-hand side is the popular vote; the lines and segments down the bottom are PROJECTED delegates. Once delegates start being earned, that will be added separately.
Post
Post #122 (isolation #53) » Sun Jan 22, 2017 5:33 pm
Postby Drench »
IOWA
The caucus began at 7pm sharp. No formal threshold exists to earn delegates in the Republican caucus, but since there are only thirty delegates up for grabs, a candidate must poll at least
3.2%~
to win delegates. The Democratic caucus, as with all caucuses and primaries in the Democratic contest, has a threshold of
15%
to earn delegates.
The caucus has been a tale of opposites, especially what appears to be the relatively settled Republican contest and the up-for-grabs Democratic one. So, let's do the former first.
Spoiler: The Iowa Republican Caucus; Monday, 1st February, 2016
The final results have been certified.
In sixth place, with 13,038 votes and 7% of the vote,
Defender
. He claims two delegates, and overperforms final polling by 0.2%.
In fifth place, with 16,909 votes and 9% of the vote,
Khan
. He claims three delegates, and underperforms final polling by 1%.
In fourth place, with 25,254 votes and 13.5% of the vote,
Negarir
. He claims four delegates, and overperforms final polling by 1.2%.
In third place, with 26,244 votes and 14% of the vote,
TSL
. He claims four delegates, and overperforms final polling by 0.9%.
The winner of the Iowa Republican caucus...
With 75,114 votes, and 40.2% of the vote...
Tony Abbott
12 delegates won
-0.2% from polling
In second place, with 30,373 votes, and 16.2% of the vote, was
Mothma
. She earns five delegates and overperforms polling by 2.2%.
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
+/- final polling
Abbott
40.2%
75,114
12 dels
-0.2%
Mothma
16.2%
30,373
5 dels
+2.2%
TSL
14.0%
26,244
4 dels
+0.9%
Negarir
13.5%
25,254
4 dels
+1.2%
Khan
9.0%
16,909
3 dels
-1.0%
Defender
7.0%
13,038
2 dels
+0.2%
Total
161,678
30 dels
The Democrats had a tight race--it could truly go to anyone. Especially when over 3 in 10 voters are undecided heading to the caucus, if they vote at all.
Spoiler: The Iowa Democratic Caucus; Monday, 1st February, 2016
The final results have been certified. Unlike the real world, votes tonight are reported as actual votes, and not State Delegate Equivalents.
In fifth place, with 11,126 votes and 6.5% of the vote,
Reckoner
. He fails to meet the delegate threshold, and underperforms final polling by 1.9%.
In fourth place, with 16,418 votes and 9.6% of the vote,
McGriddles
. He fails to meet the delegate threshold, and overperforms final polling by 2.2%.
In third place, with 18,662 votes and 10.9% of the vote...
...
Spire
. He fails to meet the delegate threshold, and underperforms final polling by a massive 9.8%.
The winner of the Iowa Democratic caucus...
With 104,835 votes, and 61.3% of the vote...
...overperforming final polling by 43.6%...
Verka Serduchka
51 delegates won
+43.6% from polling
In second place, with 20,068 votes and 11.7% of the vote,
Peanuts
. He fails to meet the delegate threshold, and underperforms final polling by 5.8%.
Abbott's closing the gap, and Negarir just needs to rely on that institutional support. Is it going to be enough? I don't know, but if there are warning sighs, it's Khan's superior campaign organization, Abbott's massive ground game, and Negarir's relative fundraising weakness.
Spire still has a massive polling advantage, funds advantage, candidate advantage, and ground game advantage. But, then again. He just lost a winnable caucus. All that could be said is, if Spire falters, this is wide open.
In Review
The news cycle strength is how good or bad your media was for the week, if you had any media at all. The ads just tell you who's producing what, and what's being targeted in each. Scandals are self-explanatory. The full picture has basically everything that happened, but unformatted, so you can cry while you read it.
Spoiler: News cycle strength
Serduchka
+14,
Abbott
+9,
Negarir
+6,
Mothma
+2,
Reckoner
-2,
Khan
+1,
Spire
+-,
McGriddles
+-,
Tilden-St. Leonard
+-.
Spoiler: Ads
Tilden-St. Leonard
> completed ad > United States >
Khan
/Military Intervention.
Mothma
> completed ad > United States >
Mothma
/Military Intervention.
Defender
> completed ad > United States >
Defender
/Immigration.
Khan
> completed ad > United States >
Khan
/Government Spending.
Serduchka
> completed ad > United States >
Serduchka
/War on Terror.
Reckoner
> completed ad > United States >
Serduchka
/Immigration.
Peanuts
> completed ad > United States >
Peanuts
/Leadership.
McGriddles
> completed ad > United States >
McGriddles
/Government Spending.
Spoiler: Scandals
No new ones today.
Spoiler: The rest
Abbott wins in Iowa!
Serduchka wins in Iowa!
Republican New Hampshire Primary in 7 days!
Democratic New Hampshire Primary in 7 days!
REP primaries debate in 11 days.
REP primaries debate in 4 days.
DEM primaries debate in 2 days.
DEM primaries debate in 9 days.
Abbott endorsed by Sen. Tom Cotton > Unions!
Sen. Tom Cotton is now a potential Surrogate for Abbott!
Spire endorsed by Sen. Harry Reid > Gun Control!
Sen. Harry Reid is now a potential Surrogate for Spire!
McGriddles endorsed by Sen. Patrick Leahy > War on Terror!
Sen. Patrick Leahy is now a potential Surrogate for McGriddles!
Gaining momentum:
Negarir, Defender
Losing momentum:
Reckoner
,
Khan
,
McGriddles
MAPS
Ignore McMullin. Leaders of each state are colour-coded; white states means it's too close to call. The percentage list on the right-hand side is the popular vote; the lines and segments down the bottom are PROJECTED delegates. Earned delegates aren't in this update, but will probably be in the next one onwards.
Post
Post #132 (isolation #55) » Sun Jan 29, 2017 8:31 pm
Postby Drench »
Events up to February 6th
3 days until New Hampshire
14 days until South Carolina (Republican) and Nevada (Democratic)
276 days until the Presidential Election
doing updates day-by-day makes me want to die so have like....idk 4 days at a time let's see how this goes
Headlines
The papers are released each day in the morning, and describe what happened the previous day. The first day of the cycle is a Wednesday, and the last a Tuesday, but the first newspapers are Thursday's, and the last Wednesday's.
Wednesday's papers:
Abbott
and
Serduchka
are...not spinning their wins????? Like okay guys whatever. It's literally gonna be top of the paper news for at least the next week though so maybe it doesn't matter.
Serduchka
, at least, is doing Meet the Press and nailing the War on Terror stuff and it's all good, while
TSL
tries to do an attack ad on military intervention cheering just bombing the shit out of places that don't exist. Good stuff.
A boring affair. Honestly, literally, just boring.
McGriddles
boasted, and it worked, but he was still just okay.
Peanuts
boasted, and it worked, but he was still just alright.
Serduchka
boasted, and it worked, and her preparation shone through, but she was just good. The only real excitement was
Spire
pulling out the #receipts on
Reckoner
by reading his GP2 posts out loud, but this is 2016, we're adults, it made him seem more human, whatever. And, sure enough, this debate was fought to a draw between the two, with
Spire's
energy making up for an inability to really settle in, and
are doing well on the pundit shows, while all of that pushes the lackluster debate to like, the bottom of page two, so yikes. And we have even more endorsements, to the point that they're just going in the week in review now.
Saturday:
Would you believe that the Iowa caucuses are still top news? Yeah, incredible stuff.
Reckoner
continues to work behind the scenes, doing real well in a policy speech on terror.
TSL
does some good work on Fox News Sunday (which is also tomorrow), but also is being really negative.
Khan
tells a really good joke on Fallon about tax rates, which, lmfao, and
Spire
, despite his massive collapse in Iowa, is still a really good candidate, and does blisteringly well on Meet the Press.
Week in Review
The news cycle strength is how good or bad your media was for the week, if you had any media at all. The ads just tell you who's producing what, and what's being targeted in each. Scandals are self-explanatory. The full picture has basically everything that happened, but unformatted, so you can cry while you read it.
News strength doesn't work great when it's a bunch of days bigger than one and less than seven so just hold your horses.
Spoiler: Ads
Tilden-St. Leonard
> completed ad > United States >
Defender
/War on Terror.
Tilden-St. Leonard
> completed ad > United States >
Negarir
/Integrity.
Negarir
> completed ad > United States >
Khan
/Leadership.
Negarir
> completed ad > United States >
Mothma
/War on Terror.
Mothma
> completed ad > United States >
Khan
/War on Terror.
Defender
> completed ad > United States >
Defender
/Immigration.
Abbott
> completed ad > United States >
Abbott
/Government Spending.
Abbott
> completed ad > United States >
Khan
/Health Care.
Spire
> completed ad > United States >
Reckoner
/Leadership.
Spire
> completed ad > United States >
Spire
/Leadership.
McGriddles
> completed ad > United States >
McGriddles
/Government Spending.
Negarir
> completed ad > United States >
Defender
/War on Terror.
Mothma
> completed ad > United States >
Mothma
/Military Intervention.
Defender
> completed ad > United States >
Negarir
/War on Terror.
Khan
> completed ad > United States >
Khan
/Immigration.
Khan
> completed ad > United States >
Mothma
/Immigration.
Serduchka
> completed ad > United States >
Spire
/War on Terror.
Spire
> completed ad > United States >
McGriddles
/War on Terror.
McGriddles
> completed ad > United States >
McGriddles
/Health Care.
Negarir
> completed ad > United States >
Negarir
/Leadership.
Mothma
> completed ad > United States >
Khan
/Leadership.
Defender
> completed ad > United States >
Defender
/Military Intervention.
Abbott
> completed ad > United States >
Abbott
/Role of Government.
Serduchka
> completed ad > United States >
Serduchka
/Health Care.
Spire
> completed ad > United States >
Reckoner
/War on Terror.
Peanuts
> completed ad > United States >
Reckoner
/War on Terror.
Tilden-St. Leonard
> completed ad > United States >
Khan
/War on Terror.
Mothma
> completed ad > United States >
Defender
/War on Terror.
Khan
> completed ad > United States >
Khan
/War on Terror.
Reckoner
> completed ad > United States >
Spire
/Government Spending.
Spoiler: Scandals
None.
Spoiler: The rest
Democratic New Hampshire Primary in 3 days!
Republican New Hampshire Primary in 3 days!
REP primaries debate in 7 days.
REP primaries debate tonight!
DEM primaries debate in 5 days.
Tilden-St. Leonard's attack ad has backfired.
Mothma's attack ad has backfired.
Abbott endorsed by Gov. Mary Fallin > Role of Government!
Gov. Mary Fallin is now a potential Surrogate for Abbott!
Abbott endorsed by Sen. Joni Ernst > Role of Government!
Sen. Joni Ernst is now a potential Surrogate for Abbott!
McGriddles endorsed by Sen. Tim Kaine > Gun Control!
Sen. Tim Kaine is now a potential Surrogate for McGriddles!
Negarir endorsed by Sen. Barbara Boxer > Abortion!
Sen. Barbara Boxer is now a potential Surrogate for Negarir!
Abbott endorsed by Sen. James Lankford > Role of Government!
Sen. James Lankford is now a potential Surrogate for Abbott!
Abbott endorsed by Sen. Tim Scott > War on Terror!
Sen. Tim Scott is now a potential Surrogate for Abbott!
MAPS
Ignore McMullin. Leaders of each state are colour-coded; white states means it's too close to call. The percentage list on the right-hand side is the popular vote; the lines and segments down the bottom are PROJECTED delegates. After each election, updated ALLOCATED delegate counts will be provided.
And how accurate are polls in this game anyway? I'm pretty sure that being 40% off would get people fired if it happened irl.
fog of war exists so you need to expect a few points margin of error on everything
and i mean......it was a massive upset in dem!iowa but serduchka was steadily climbing there the last few days, and you can't stop the undecideds just heading en masse to one candidate
it's 2008 all over again if reck were hillary and i were obama
--like, Twitter-levels of own, like Rubio pre-NH levels of own--and boy does it literally make him the loser in this. He loses so much that
Abbott
and
TSL
, for once, aren't last!!! But they're still pretty shit, and they both give
Negarir
more ammo to play with.
Mothma
and
Khan
are both pretty good, but there really is no beating
Negarir
, whose prep, charisma and energy all combined with some own goals from others. A performance that, while not totally dominant, was at least clearly better.
The papers are released each day in the morning, and describe what happened the previous day. The first day of the cycle is a Wednesday, and the last a Tuesday, but the first newspapers are Thursday's, and the last Wednesday's.
Sunday's papers:
Iowa is still massively in the news, but
Negarir's
victory in the debate is the next best thing.
Spire
is on the receiving end of a
Serduchka
attack ad, but who knows whether it'll work?
Reckoner
cries while doing karaoke for the victims of terror and it's a hit.
McGriddles
calls for all abortions to be performed by the woman's partner, which is kinda fucked up and not well received.
Peanuts
loves to give money to poor people, and
Defender
finds his gaffe right down the bottom of the page, next to coverage of
Khan's
Fallon turn.
Monday:
BRONCOS WIN THE SUPER BOWL anyway.
Peanuts
is something else on Fallon, in a good way, and
Negarir
finds his win spun away by, of all people,
Abbott
. That anti-
Spire
ad finds purchase, and while
Serduchka
campaigns to Save Medicare in Nevada,
TSL
is doing a little bit of saving of her own on FNS. Don't know what I mean by that but whatever, it's good for her.
Tuesday:
Iowa is still on top.
Serduchka
recites the fucking capitals or something and it works on Fallon.
Defender
and
Khan
are also doing good things in re the whole knowing things about the presidency on FNS and O'Reilly, respectively, while
Reckoner
is actually campaigning, in New Hampshire.
Spire
is still the national leader in Democratic vote share, and now that the Democrats and Republicans are even, that's not reflecting well on him. Protesters do shit at p
Abbott
and
Serduchka
events; it's probably a they-won-Iowa thing even though the game says it's about gun control and unions, respectively. Which is very on-message. That's the ball game before New Hampshire--but this is just what's breaking through. New Hampshire loves its retail politics, and who knows how that'll impact the final vote.
The Week That Was
Week in Review
The news cycle strength is how good or bad your media was for the week, if you had any media at all. The ads just tell you who's producing what, and what's being targeted in each. Scandals are self-explanatory. The full picture has basically everything that happened, but unformatted, so you can cry while you read it.
Spoiler: Ads
i am a fool and did not manage to get these
Spoiler: Scandals
None.
Spoiler: The rest
Republican New Hampshire Primary today!
Democratic New Hampshire Primary today!
REP primaries debate in 4 days.
DEM primaries debate in 2 days.
Peanuts receives permanent issue bonus from policy speech on the Social Security issue.
Negarir endorsed by Sen. Dianne Feinstein > Free Trade!
Sen. Dianne Feinstein is now a potential Surrogate for Negarir!
Abbott endorsed by Sen. Ted Cruz > Iran!
Sen. Ted Cruz is now a potential Surrogate for Abbott!
MAPS
Ignore McMullin. Leaders of each state are colour-coded; white states means it's too close to call. The percentage list on the right-hand side is the popular vote; the lines and segments down the bottom are PROJECTED delegates. Once delegates start being earned, that will be added separately.
Post
Post #140 (isolation #58) » Tue Jan 31, 2017 2:07 am
Postby Drench »
NEW HAMPSHIRE
Polling began in two communities at midnight, and owing to state law, was closed a few minutes after, once the votes of all registered electors had been received. Dixville Notch and Hart's Location have been doing this a while and it means nothing, so you won't get their results. Voting for the rest of the state began at varying times in the morning, and closed at 7pm sharp.
The Republican primary allocates delegates proportionally, with a threshold of
10%
. The Democratic primary, as with all caucuses and primaries in the Democratic contest, has a threshold of
15%
to earn delegates.
After Iowa, this race has been solidified in one corner, and upended in the other. So, let's start with the expected result from Iowa: the Republicans.
Spoiler: The Iowa Republican Caucus; Monday, 1st February, 2016
The final results have been certified.
In sixth place, with 19,073 votes and 6.7% of the vote,
Mothma
. She fails to meet the delegate threshold, and overperforms final polling by 0.3%.
In fifth place, with 32,569 votes and 11.4% of the vote,
Negarir
. He claims three delegates, and overperforms final polling by 4.8%.
In fourth place, with 33,285 votes and 11.6% of the vote,
Defender
. He claims three delegates, and underperforms final polling by 2.7%.
In third place, with 61,331 votes and 21.5% of the vote,
Khan
. He claims five delegates, and overperforms final polling by 9.3%.
The winner of the Iowa Republican caucus...
With 77,437 votes, and 27.1% of the vote...
Tony Abbott
7 delegates won
-4.2% from polling
In second place, with 62,221 votes, and 21.8% of the vote, was
TSL
. She earns five delegates and overperforms polling by 2.5%.
Candidate
Vote share
# of votes
Delegates won
+/- final polling
Abbott
27.1%
77,437
7 dels
-4.2%
TSL
21.8%
62,221
5 dels
+2.5%
Khan
21.5%
61,331
5 dels
+9.3%
Defender
11.6%
33,285
3 dels
-2.7%
Negarir
11.4%
32,569
3 dels
+4.8%
Mothma
6.7%
19,073
0 dels
+0.3%
Total
285,916
23 dels
The Democrats had a tight race--it could truly go to anyone. Especially when over 3 in 10 voters are undecided heading to the caucus, if they vote at all.
Spoiler: The Iowa Democratic Caucus; Monday, 1st February, 2016
The final results have been certified.
In fifth place, with 24,232 votes and 9.6% of the vote,
Spire
. He fails to meet the delegate threshold, and overperforms final polling by 0.6%.
In fourth place, with 25,991 votes and 10.3% of the vote,
Reckoner
. He fails to meet the delegate threshold, and underperforms final polling by 2.8%.
In third place, with 44,365 votes and 17.5% of the vote...
...
Peanuts
. He claims seven delegates, and overperforms final polling by 1.0%.
The winner of the Iowa Democratic caucus...
With 91,148 votes, and 36% of the vote...
Verka Serduchka
14 delegates won
+1.3% from polling
In second place, with 67,326 votes and 26.6% of the vote,
McGriddles
. He claims eleven delegates, and underperforms final polling by 1.3%.