Micro 829: The Coalition [Endgame]

[Almost50]

Congratulations everyone for having me as your buddy in this game. I'll be right to the point.. according to some ancient document (dating back to 3000 BC) uncovered recently, I should be included in all coalition lists. It's a FACT that all historians unanimously have verified to be true.

From here on I shall be assessing you individually to see who qualifies to be with me in the coalition. My word is LAW. Anyone who dares go against my divine will shall be harshly reprimanded and sent directly to their room without supper. I hope my declaration is clear enough. Now let's proceed. Who wants to be first to be examined by me? (P.S. Don't be alarmed. It's A50 not AP)

[Almost50]

OH, I forgot...

HEAL: Almost50

[Almost50]

HEAL: Irrelephant11

[Almost50]

Hi Chara

Why is Irrelephant not TR'd by you?

[Almost50]

I'm not doing ISOs in a 12 page thread. I'm reading the whole thing as we speak. On page 4 now

[Almost50]

Yeah. If he's not in the coalition I assume he's not a hard TR.

His entry was townie. He is probing and making enemies not friends. But it's not just that. The first thing I saw was the coalition count at the top of page 12, and Irrelephant has not one person including him in their coalition, yet he picked 3 aside from himself. He is not aligned with anyone. Scum will be pushing themselves to be included in most lists to ensure at least one of them is in it. Best strategy is to have one in and one out. So unless you're suggesting his partner is widely TR'd that they're almost guaranteed to be in the top 5 picks I'd say he is Town.

Btw, what was your read on my predecessor?

[Almost50]

skitter hasnt accused me of being scum yet

HURT: skitter

Can I do that in here stead?

[Almost50]

cool, i think a50 is prob town

HEAL: a50

^^^^ this is my fifth person
idk if i want to remove anyone right now but just be careful for like hammering purposes etc

OH, hi skitter. You have a promising game opening. I just was a little worried you got nominated by no lunch whom I have no read on yet.

[Almost50]

i also think he's town, but i'm keeping him out for now while i continue to attempt to read the game as a whole. glad to see both of the null slots now active!
did find his unvote of himself interesting.

my read on aslight's one content post was nulltown.

pedit: skitter that quick heal vote has... kind of made me extremely nervous. go into that?

Oh, come on. A noob scum voting himself for messing up the vote tags??? If I didn't know my alignment already I would have deduced I was town just by reading my predecessor!

[Almost50]

Chara feels like town, but they have fooled me more than once before. I am trying to work on my conf!bias of always TRing them no matter what!

[Almost50]

i'm starting to become a little wary of no lunch

OK.. this is mind melting enough to call you Town here.

HEAL: skitter

[Almost50]

thanks for answering all of my questions, skitter! needed a picture of your pattern with Almost. i personally found his entrance mildly towny but his first post is pretty lacking in AI content, so i found your quick heal premature.
of course, your play this game has told me that you're being a little more liberal with your heals than i am, so it isn't behaviour that is

too

alarming from you. and it makes sense you'd be confident in a town ping when you've been right on many before.

In "our mutual experience" you being hesitant to explicitly TR me is indicative of you being scum

[Almost50]

Even when I do roll scum you'd go out of your way to defend me when you're town (ex: Varsoon's abandoned game).

[Almost50]

^@Chara obviously

[Almost50]

This feels more like the approach you had towards me in Civilization.

[Almost50]

I'm not confident thou because you seem to have BIG posts in this game. Bigger than the usual for scum you (or town you, tbh)

[Almost50]

scum have daychat
HURT: charaHURT: no lunch
I forgot I voted Aubrey near the beginning of that post but I'll stick with sky for now
though I wonder if our strategy is that our lynch should only ever be in the coalition? since that'll optimally be where scum is if the coalition fails?

@Chara: Irrelephant is cancelling his promotion for the two most popular candidates for the coalition (both slightly ahead of Aubrey). This is not scum who's trying to buddy up with the two widely read slots.

[Almost50]

tentatively TRing Gamma, but no locked read there yet.

[Almost50]

@Chara: I'm trying to end the game before we lynch anybody.

[Almost50]

@Aubrey: What if I told you we should no lynch on D1??

P.S. This is for Aubrey and ONLY HIM!

[Almost50]

i'm going to attempt to sleep. i say attempt because... well.

I believe I know what happens next. See you in 10 minutes (if not less).

[Almost50]

I'm not exactly SRing anyone, but I have my doubts about most players.

My readlist currently looks like this:

skitter/Irrelephant <=confident
Chara <= semi-confident. Just being wary. Probably will end up explicitly TRing
Aubrey <= I need a real time chat with him to be confident
Gamma <= same old story. If he's not obv!towning I end up being skeptical about him
Sky <= I'll have a closer look when I'm fully awake
no lunch <= I don't even know them. They are posting lots, so I probably need to reread their posts
MME <= I lied. I do have a scum lean here. Next to no activity yet he managed to have 80% of his coalition list filled??

[Almost50]

Almost50 replaces aslightrain.

Yeah I was hoping you’d join the game!

You were?? Now why is that? Just bc I TR'd correctly in Diffusion of Power doesn't mean I will have a confident read on you every game, you know.

[Almost50]

OK, so can you oblige me with read list and a line or two explaining each read so far?

[Almost50]

Exactly what is your experience with Almost50, Chara? I'm detecting serious synergy there. I like it.
How well would you say you are able to read him? Has he outdone you as scum before?

Almost50, I'd like to hear your thoughts on the same about Chara please.

I have only one hydra account, and it's called "Almost Chara". Does this suffice?

[Almost50]

HEAL: A50 HURT: no lunch
I hurt myself because as I've said I'm willing to accept the challenge of being one of two townies to not be in the coalition, but if a group of four townies I believe in come together and all want me as their fifth, I'll join. This also helps avoid accidentally hammering, or at least accidentally hammering any coalition with me in it

As I said, I want to try and end the game before we lynch anyone, meaning I want my most confident TRs to be included in the coalition. Please nominate yourself. Thank you

[Almost50]

I had a massive post written out pouring my heart out, and then accidentally pressed the "back" button.
Literally heart-broken.

I'm on a PC, using Firefox. If I ever do that I simply click forward again and the post magically reappears and is ready to post.

[Almost50]

busy couple of days != given up

hi A50! how different is your scum game from AP's?

How dare you? AP is NEVER scum. He's good enough for scum as it is when he rolls town.

[Almost50]

@Sky / @Aubrey: As of 357 neither of you has nominated themselves for the coalition. Why?

[Almost50]

So you're nominating a no lynch again. ugh.

Well, not exactly, but in a way YES. If we manage to pick 5 Town for the coalition we can save a lot of blood shed.

[Almost50]

I'm unable to make up mind yet about the other 2 I want in the coalition. I know I don't want MME, but that's about it for now.

[Almost50]

I think I'm willing to take a big leap of faith here and declare Chara Town. I hope my logic here proves right (I'd rather not share that yet)

HEAL: Chara[/chara]

This leaves me undecided between the other 4 slots, excluding MME

[Almost50]

Bwahahahahahaha

HEAL: Chara

[Almost50]

@Gamma: Can I convince you to HURT no lunch and HEAL me & Irrelephant instead?

[Almost50]

@Sky: I don't like the HURT then almost immediate HEAL you did to no lunch. I can't explain it but it feels like you were replanting the idea that he was Town here.

[Almost50]

Shuffling the notes in my head, perhaps Aubrey and Irrelephant need to have their positions switched. I think it is clear they are both "leaning town", all the same.
HURT: Gamma Emerald for the record.

Also tracking the Heal/Hurt votes this looks like no lunch was trying to break the tie between himself and Gamma, keeping him more in contention.

[Almost50]

What I can't decide is whether np lunch did this to ensure himself being in it because his partner was not, or if it was done to WIFOM us when the game goes into lynch phase and we don't know if we have a scum out of the coalition or not.

If the former, then leaving him out should end the game promptly. If the latter, then his partner is already in it (Chara/skitter/Aubrey)

So, we leave no lunch out and see if the game does end. If not then we lynch from these 3. I dunno where that leaves MME though because I really don't feel that slot to be a townie slot. Am I being too paranoid?

[Almost50]

@Gamma: Can I convince you to HURT no lunch and HEAL me & Irrelephant instead?

Heh, this is gutsy of you.

Hey, I'm tentatively accepting you in the coalition based on the above post of mine.

[Almost50]

I don’t see an immediate need to self heal right now. I was originally against it because I misunderstood how the coalition worked, now that I understand it better, I don’t see much need to self vote unless there is a majority coalition I agree with and I happen to be in it.

You are almost guaranteed to be in it (tied @ 2nd with 5 votes without your own). Now if you're town you should try to fill in the other slots with your most confident reads, but make sure you don't leave yourself out.

[Almost50]

@Aubrey: I won't even ask you to include me. Just pick Irrelephant and skitter and I will give you my vote.

[Almost50]

How do you play this setup conservatively?? I say we hammer the coalition and see what happens and based on that we decide the lynch if the game doesn't end (unless I misunderstood and they both get hammered simultaneously)

[Almost50]

pedit: no way! i'm not done yet. i'd love to immediately win.

That's my aim too. That's why I want to ensure my most 2 confident TRs are in it. I myself will be resolved sooner than later (everybody knows that). If you're Town, put skitter as your 5th and never doubt.

[Almost50]

Btw, Chara.. and

this is something that may very well change in the future

: I want you to ISO me in all of our mutual games as separate slots. Find me ONE TIME where I told you explicitly that I'm TOWN when I wasn't. I always let you assume that I was town, but I was careful not to ever lie to you outright about my alignment. I am telling you here that I am indeed Town. Take that s you will.

P-edit: I'm laving them both out. That's the safest bet in this case for now. If we are forced to scum hunt for a lynch afterwards I can revisit.

[Almost50]

sounde like a trust tell? not really interested in that.

That's why I say it may change soon. So far it has yet to become a trust tell because it has never been used by you to trust me before.

[Almost50]

I mean, I could still be lying here, you know. Only when I do flip does it become and established tell.

[Almost50]

ftr I'm 100% sheeping skitter on Almost50
I will heal myself later

I kinda thought lynch and coalition were resolved simultaneously?

NSG is this correct?

Do it now, please. I need to see how people pick their remaining slots based on a true count of the existing votes. It should help in deciding on possible pairs if we fail to pick an all Town coalition. Thank you.

[Almost50]

pedit: sorry A50 I'm gonna ask you to explain that again, I don't understand why it's important to you that I self-heal this second

I am keeping track of the vote count of the coalition in real time. One more vote for you brings you closer to making it into the top 5. That's also why I'm pressing Gamma and Aubrey to include you. If scum are not already in the top 5 they'd have to do something about it. They need to ensure one of them gets in there before it's hammered. I will be looking for newly added/amended lists at that point to decide who is likely to be whose partner.

[Almost50]

@Gamma: Can I convince you to HURT no lunch and HEAL me & Irrelephant instead?

Yeah I can
HEAL: Almost50 but idk why no lunch shouldn’t be in/Irrel should?

read my posts of today (the last couple hours), no lunch is making some shady moves here. Chara (or was it Aubrey?) think Sky/no lunch isn't viable. I think it is. Shading each other when Sky has him in her list isn't boding too well with me. In short, I am opposed to any of MME/no lunch/Skygazer to be included in the coalition.

[Almost50]

and like it's D1

we have a 15% chance of getting a correct coalition randomly and even less than that because towns suck D1

im trying not to stress too much over my coalition as long as we have an appropriate amount of info to work with going forward

pedit: HEAL: no lunch
townie reaction?
i dont think your reads are bad necessarily i just dont like me/gamma/a50 being so low
but i feel like scum wouldnt be hurt that they were accused of bad reads

just wrote a post about this quote and then lost it.
point is, in a regular game i wouldn't discount their earlier shading of each other, as it could easily be distancing. i this game, making each other look bad is just very risky.

Not too risky IMHO. If one flips the other is considered semi-cleared, and it's a Mountainous setup. Worst case scenario is we lynch from the 4 outside the coalition and that's the scum p. Then they kill from that pool too making it a 5 lynch pool (the coalition) and 2 confirmed townies outside of it. Next we miclynch on D2 and another kill on N2 = 4+1. A repeat on D3/N3 = LyLo.. 3 players in the coalition who are all suspects and no one outside of it, so no conf!townies.

[Almost50]

this assumes one of them makes it into the coalition. i think it's too risky because their play if teamed lowers both of their chances of even being in it.

Well, if they're not a team, how do you decide which is which? And why do we even care when we have at least 6 more townies to pick from?

You know what? let's assume they're both TOWN. We still have 5 TOWN slots to pick for the coalition and win the game.

Now what if the game doesn't end? With them BOTH out of the coalition we know for a fact they can't be teamed together. That's a step ahead.

[Almost50]

You may be looking under just "Chara"? Try "Not Chara" and "Almost Chara"

[Almost50]

@skitter: time for you to heal Irrel, btw. Trust me.

[Almost50]

@Chara: Add skitter, please! (I don't want to sound like it's RC campaigning, but I do have a good reason to request this at this very time).

[Almost50]

@skitter: NOW is your time to win us this game. HEAL IRRELEPHANT PLEASE

[Almost50]

HEAL: Aubrey

[Almost50]

@Irrelephant: Just be patient. You can SR me all you want if my plan fails (i.e. if the coalition isn't of 5 townies).

Right now I need you put Aubrey as your 5th, please.

@Aubrey: Irrelephant and skitter, please.

[Almost50]

Almost are you sure on Aubrey? i replaced him for Gamma. (though i think both are town)

"though i think both are town" is right.

[Almost50]

That's why I said nothing when you switched

[Almost50]

The thing is if we manage to have enough votes that the remaining votes don't matter we can seal the coalition already (similar to the world congress mechanic in civilization) and we can then learn if we have a 5 Town coalition or not. As long as the margin is small the hammer doesn't occur.

[Almost50]

hey A50 who should i take out to heal you

no lunch, please

[Almost50]

The thing is if we manage to have enough votes that the remaining votes don't matter we can seal the coalition already (similar to the world congress mechanic in civilization) and we can then learn if we have a 5 Town coalition or not. As long as the margin is small the hammer doesn't occur.

Hm, didn’t know this

Well it's nothing carved in stone, but how do you explain "hammer" relating to the coalition?

[Almost50]

That wouldn't seal it if there are still votes available with someone else having 4 votes on them. I view it as an election. As long as the margin is not larger than the uncounted votes you can't declare a winner.

[Almost50]

Almost mind double-checking with nsg on that? a majority lynch is still a lynch, even if there are enough no votes that somebody else could theoretically get more. i believe "hammering" the coalition would work the same way.

Sure.

@Mod: How does the coalition "hammer" work? Is it the first 5 players to have 5 or more votes, or is it when remaining "no votes" cannot change the outcome, or is it when everyone has 5 players in their own ballot?

[Almost50]

Actually she has been marking "full ballots". Whoever heals 5 names gets a red "1" next to their name.

[Almost50]

it's not the 5 players with the most votes, it's the coalition group with the most votes. my coalition would never stack with one that doesn't include Gamma for the purposes of a coalition hammer, no matter how many other players match.

pedit: it's none of those i believe. read the first run of this game.

Link?

[Almost50]

OK.. I see. So Irrelephant still needs to add Aubrey, you need to switch Gamma with Aubrey, and Gamma himself needs to switch himself with skitter for us to have a hammer 95 identical ballots). Right?

[Almost50]

oh shucks this explains so much of why I didn't understand A50's actions earlier lol

It would be quite surprising if you understood what I'm doing based on having played me once or twice.

As evident, the players most familiar with me can't tell what I'm doing even when they're 100% certain I'm town.

[Almost50]

Chara. skitter, Irrelephant, A50, Aubrey. I could switch you/me with Gamma if needs be, provided that gets a majority.

[Almost50]

Are you hoping to hammer the coalition very soon? Or is that just my impression based on the way you are pushing it very actively?

To me, the coalition is step #1 of the scum hunting. If we can get 5 townies in there the game is already over. If not, then I/we can have a good idea of whom to suspect in/out of it. Without the coalition hammered we are still in a traditional D1 with no leads. I don't want us to spend too much time undecided, because if push come to shove and we fail to elect 5 Townies we still need time to talk about who to lynch in/out of the coalition, rather than just have a speedy deadline wagon.

[Almost50]

That's all fine and good, but it feels like you are not even providing enough time for scum to show the desperation you expected them to show when the coalitions approached hammer (as they are doing now)
Also am I right in thinking that you strongly townread all of you/me/chara/skitter/Aubrey/gamma enough to include any/all of that set in a coalition? If so, would you go more into why you feel so strongly about the last two in that list?

1- Why give scum time to adapt and respond when I feel I can stun them with a swift move?
2- Also, the longer it takes the more likely TOWN will start getting second thoughts. That's not healthy as it will result in everyone hosting suspicion against another (town) slot and we will never get the coalition hammered.
3- I do TR that group, but I believe out of the 6 I TR A50 the most.

[Almost50]

Almost50 are you still here? I think we need real time interactions.

I am, and we do. Just give me a few minutes to be exclusively here for you.

[Almost50]

Can you answer my question about aubrey/gamma please?

The Gamma read is inexplicable. I simply do things and expect him to respond in a certain way if he is scum, but he responds in a different fashion and he is a TR. Here is an example from a very recent game we played together. Check posts #765, 780 & 788 to see the progression.

As for Aubrey, him TRing me for something he could have very well SR'd me for. The only think I can say here is for Aubrey to be scum then Sky is his partner, but I'd only worry about that if we hammer the coalition and the game doesn't end.

[Almost50]

@no lunch: I'm here. Hit me

[Almost50]

You need to get post IDs from other games, not post numbers

Yeah, my bad.

[Almost50]

Firstly as context to anything we talk about, I believe you are scum-siding by suggesting we rush a coalition. 7v2 mountainous is a scum-sided setup, so the pentotomy of the coalition is all that we have.

I agree with the 2nd part which is exactly why the first part in untrue. Without the coalition we are in a scum sided setup. Using it we either win instantly or have split pools with at least 1 confirmed scum in the coalition.

I explained earlier that we could spend the whole 2 weeks debating whom to put in/out of the coalition and then fail to hammer. We could be forced to rush through a lynch just because we spent too much time debating on whether or not to hammer the coalition. Hammering the coalition early

at worst

gives us a 5 player list to lynch from until we flip one scum. You can't even suggest a lynch from outside the coalition until a scum has flipped from within.

[Almost50]

Just out of interest, what is your take on Skygazer?

This is a very very bad question considering you claim to have been reading my posts!

[Almost50]

Almost50, what do you think about the idea of padding the coalition with players who are easier to read, in that instance? I would suggest something along the lines of:
Chara
skitter30
Skygazer
Gamma Emerald
can't think of a fifth off the top of my head.

This depends on whether one is hunting for the instant win or is resigned to the idea we can't possibly get them all right and thus should be content with an "easier to sort" kind of lynchpool.

[Almost50]

Just out of interest, what is your take on Skygazer?

This is a very very bad question considering you claim to have been reading my posts!

Then this is an even worse answer!
I have been reading your posts, but as confessed my retention is very low.
There have also been developments since then.

So what's your take on Skygazer, baby monkey?

What does me not including her in my SIX contenders for the coalition tell you? I mean, regardless of anything else.. does it look like I have a confident TR there just by that fact?

[Almost50]

Okay if Skygazer is too difficult: could you give me a quick concise update of your current read on me?

Scummier by the minute.

[Almost50]

Then perhaps we would be better off forcing "both or neither" into the coalition so we have a 2/5 chance of lynching correctly on-coalotion?

Both of whom?

[Almost50]

What does me not including her in my SIX contenders for the coalition tell you? I mean, regardless of anything else.. does it look like I have a confident TR there just by that fact?

It isn't on me to answer this question.

Why is she not in your contenders and why did her posting earlier not change your mind?

VOTE: no lunch

Let's dance. THIS is my

serious

answer.

[Almost50]

@EVERYONE: What does the fact I'm not including X in my candidates to be in coalition tell you about my read on X?

[Almost50]

@EVERYONE: What does the fact I'm not including X in my candidates to be in coalition tell you about my read on X?

[Almost50]

you don't trust your read on X?

OK, so where does this place X on my list of reads on 8 slots in the game when I have 5 (other than myself) that I do want to make it to the coalition?

[Almost50]

Almost50, why don't you like talking to me?

What makes you think that?

[Almost50]

Almost: uh. hm. some mental gymnastics here. i would say in the bottom 3?

See? Wasn't too hard to deduce, was it? Now check 579 and see if no lunch's response makes much sense to you.

[Almost50]

Almost: uh. hm. some mental gymnastics here. i would say in the bottom 3?

See? Wasn't too hard to deduce, was it? Now check 579 and see if no lunch's response makes much sense to you.

i'm pretty sure no lunch is asking why you aren't townreading her/finding her recent posts towny. he confirms that later more explicitly.

And why is he asking about Sky specifically? Wouldn't someone be normally more worried about the people I explicitly TR?

My working theory is it's "possible" no lunch is scum with Sky, and I've pointed out he hurting him then healing him soon after. My working theory is further fueled by the fact she asked me whom to take out off her coalition list in order to include me, then asked him (I'm sorry if that's the incorrect pronoun, btw) specifically the same question. The very same guy I asked to be removed, and the one she actually did remove upon my request!!

Then I still think it's also possible that Sky could be scum with Aubrey. In fact, the ONLY partner I could think of if Aubrey is scum would be Sky. Aubrey's the only player TRing Sky enough to include her in his coalition list.

I no longer wish to lead the town, so do as you will. I wanted Aubrey over Gamma because IF the coalition didn't work I would have called him out first, and Gamma would have been my TR in the "other 4" too, so that would have helped me narrow down my lynch pool on both sides.

But you guys know better. We should totally take our time going in loops and have scum spread the paranoia among us to the point we either fail to hammer the coalition, we do it too late and rush a mislynch, or we do it in such a time where enough townies are more sus of other townies we would be mislynching our way into a loss. Good luck with that!

[Almost50]

SUDDENLY I feel like I'm missing AP.

[Almost50]

Almost50 speaking through other players makes me inclined to think he is using a pseudo mob mentality to discredit me.

Why is that?

[Almost50]

Almost50 speaking through other players makes me inclined to think he is using a pseudo mob mentality to discredit me.

Why is that?

In essence, what stopped you from responding to my request on your take on Skygazer?
The response "I THINK SHE IS YOUR SCUMBUDDY >:C" would have been both advantageous towards me sorting you, and would have likely put me off guard (particularly if I were scum with her)! Agreed?

It's not up to me to agree/disagree. My mission is to pretend to be asking some important questions and when someone answers them I'd play dumb. That's a new playstyle I've just decided to adopt a few minutes ago, mimicking the style of some other player (I'd rather not name names).

So, why did you put the question before your explanation in the quoted post and not vise versa?

[Almost50]

Well, you already got your answer(s) in 628. have I missed any more questions?

[Almost50]

I think skitter has the same list as mine

[Almost50]

But that was explained in 628. As for why I stopped responding it's because I got the impression you were playing dense and asking questions with answers that could have been easily deduced from my posts already. I also hate it when people ask me to "out my plan" before they come to fruition.

Look, I SR you now, but if you happen to be Town I'd still find your playstyle irritating. If I'm setting a trap or playing a trick I would rather nobody asked me to explain it before it blossoms and gives me a result. Otherwise every trick I play seizes to be a trick because I am explaining it in advance. Every reaction test becomes null. Every pressure vote loses its effect.

[Almost50]

A50/Chara: can you explain me a town elephant without using meta please?

Yeah. If he's not in the coalition I assume he's not a hard TR.

His entry was townie. He is probing and making enemies not friends. But it's not just that. The first thing I saw was the coalition count at the top of page 12, and Irrelephant has not one person including him in their coalition, yet he picked 3 aside from himself. He is not aligned with anyone. Scum will be pushing themselves to be included in most lists to ensure at least one of them is in it. Best strategy is to have one in and one out. So unless you're suggesting his partner is widely TR'd that they're almost guaranteed to be in the top 5 picks I'd say he is Town.

Btw, what was your read on my predecessor?

^This + him not really caring about campaigning for himself until I asked him to nominate himself and did all the campaigning for him.

[Almost50]

Granted I’d my coalition did fail, i’d prob be the first to eat rope.

You can always nominate Irrelephant and leave yourself out. If the coalition fails we're sure as hell going to lynch in it until a scum flips. A failed coalition =

at least

one scum is in it, guaranteed.

[Almost50]

@skitter: Yes. That's the leading ballot bc both you and I have the same 5 picks. No other 2 players have the exact same 5 as anyone else, but 4 others would look exactly like this with one change/addition.

[Almost50]

a50 any chance i can talk you into gamma

Basically Gamma is good by me, but I'll wait to see how things go to avoid reshuffling more than I need to.

[Almost50]

I believe I will find sorting you very difficult, monkey.

That's always the case for people who don't play with me that often (and sometime even for those who do if they don't pay enough attention), so I'm not surprised.

But a good starting point is: Leave A50 alone on D1. If he doesn't catch scum and is still alive on D3 you may start worrying.

[Almost50]

@skitter: It's becoming a fad that scum would just try to lurk to stay off the radar. The argument is always "what is scummy in their posts?" and is almost always making TOWN stay away from them, at least for D1.

I mean, go back and check the recent games and you will always find at least one scum who either lurked or replaced out. Who were scum in Diffusion of Power? I would say Carca was the only active scum (yet most of her posts were unproductive). Spoogh was literally active lurking, overplaying the noob card. NC's slot was replaced twice, and nobody even wanted to lynch the predecessor (Lovebird) for lurking.

So, the problem -from my own PoV- is that site meta has become to NOT lynch the lurkers. The "let's wait to see if they will post or get replaced" is killing the town, and is -at best- a waste of precious time. Just lurk it out and wait for the active players to start turning on each other, because that's what they do have on their hands to examine.

[Almost50]

gamestate wise theres almost certainly scum in the coalition consensus unless scum are really dropping the ball here

Good point, which begs the question: What would YOU do if you were one of 2 scums left out off the coalition as we speak? In other words, I want you to put yourself in the scum!mode, make believe that you did receive a red role PM, and that your partner is someone who is unlikely to be in the coalition as well. Now think of how you would try to remedy the situation without looking suspicious or making a strong connection with your partner that if one of you flips the other is very likely to follow.

[Almost50]

@Sky: That doesn't answer my question. My question is what would you do if you were scum and found yourself AND your partner left out of the coalition. How does scum!you go about that?

[Almost50]

Sky's posts being towny (meaning her recent ones) are again contingent on her partner being townread... so most of these thoughts can be filed away in the unfortunate scenario that we do fail.

What gives you the impression that hers were townie posts? I view them as NAI, and I'm still waiting for a direct answer to my question about how scum!her would react if both her and her partner were left out.

[Almost50]

towny only in the sense they don't help her if her partner isn't already townread.

OK, how would YOU go about it if you were in her shoes?

Oh, let me rephrase that: ASSUMING Sky is scum, and ASSUMING her partner isn't a strong candidate for the coalition; how would you expect her to respond?

[Almost50]

talk to me about skitter?

What about skitter do you want to talk about?

[Almost50]

talk to me about skitter?

What about skitter do you want to talk about?

my scumread? i know you're townreading her so i want to know where you think i went wrong, or what you think of my thoughts.

This is one of those slots/players I can hardly phrase my reasoning for TRing them into words. If I see something that alerts my SCUMDAR it'd be easy to point that out, but to explain why she's town is simply beyond my linguistic abilities.

OK, let me try: skitter is communicating in realtime. She's not lagging behind and making big @$$ catch up posts. That's town!her. She's nor being conservative and isn't focused on her own image either. When she's scum she tried to look town. When she's town it comes out naturally. Hmm.. come to think of it.. her playstyle is somewhat similar to yours. You might as well read her posts as if you wrote them and think if that would be town!you or scum!you.

[Almost50]

(i also think that writing walls is more conducive for me to explain what i'm thinking than in real-time

OK.. if this flips scum I'm definitely not her partner for this alone.

[Almost50]

Bah! That was supposed to be quoting the whole post, but whatever.. you get the point.

[Almost50]

@a50: if i was in a scenario where i was scum here with a partner that wasnt townread id probs try to scumcase a specefic person to get them forced out of the coalition

Okie dokie. That's a good/clever answer. I can see you trying to do that.

But how do you force yourself or your partner instead of the one you shade?

[Almost50]

@skitter: How do you feel about omitting Aubrey in favour of Gamma? If we both do we'd have identical lists with Chara & Aubrey, and we'd need only one of Sky/Gamma/Irrel to make a minor change to hammer.

[Almost50]

I feel good about them both. Unfortunately we can only have one or the other. Aubrey was good enough to sacrifice his own seat at the coalition in favour of Gamma. I also vouch for Gamma (aside from me also TRing Aubrey), and so does Chara (at least in the sense of including him in their list).

I am trying to seal the coalition soon enough. We have spent SEVEN REAL DAYS already and we have yet to "start the game" if you will. Even if we take the coalition thing as a

guaranteed failure

, now is the time to have that status mod-confirmed so we can start scum hunting within the 5-players pool for the next 14 days. Do you get what I mean?

[Almost50]

Then try to convince Chara to put Aubrey in their list instead of Gamma for starters, then I'm sure we can convince Aubrey to do the same, and then Irrel can add Aubrey as his 5th name and we're there.

[Almost50]

ye sure

Ok, please make the proper amendment (replacing Gamma with Irrelephant) to become the 4th identical ballot. Then either Chara or Aubrey (or even Gamma himself if so he chooses to) can hammer when we're ready.

[Almost50]

I’m fine with this

Fine. Do it, please.

[Almost50]

HURT: Gamma
HEAL: Irrelephant

Unless I confused myself, you should be including skitter. Irrel is already on your list.. I think.

[Almost50]

A50 are you just hoping all the paranoia is unwarranted or?
Like how are you reconciling the way everyone approves of this

If the coalition fails I'm willing to eat rope first and then will reveal the plan to go on. That is, once the coalition is hammered we will know if we were successful. If not, then I'm today's lynch, but I will let you all know whom to lynch next from within the coalition (in order) and whom to lynch when the first scum flips.

Me eating rope first confirms be to EVERYONE alike, so -hopefully- my plan will be considered by the majority.

[Almost50]

HURT: gamma

is my vote the hammer then? intent i suppose

Yes it is.

---

MOD EDITED IN:

Moderator Notes: If I have made an error, please inform me.

---

Coalition 1.15
Voter	Coalition
Irrelephant11 2	skitter30	Chara	Almost50	Irrelephant11	Aubrey
Chara 3	Chara	Almost50	Irrelephant11	Gamma Emerald	skitter30
no lunch	no lunch	Aubrey	skitter30	Chara
Aubrey 3	Chara	Almost50	skitter30	Gamma Emerald	Irrelephant11
Almost50 2	Almost50	Irrelephant11	skitter30	Chara	Aubrey
skitter30 2	skitter30	Chara	Aubrey	Almost50	Irrelephant11
Gamma Emerald 2	Aubrey	Chara	Almost50	Irrelephant11	skitter30
My Milked Eek	My Milked Eek	no lunch	Chara	Gamma Emerald
Skygazer	Aubrey	skitter30	Almost50	Chara	Irrelephant11
(expired on 2018-11-08 22:53:59)

Votecount 1.15
Vote Target	Wagon
Irrelephant11 (1):	no lunch (19)
Skygazer (1):	Irrelephant11 (198)
no lunch (1):	Almost50 (78)
Not Voting (6): Aubrey, My Milked Eek, Skygazer, Gamma Emerald, Chara, skitter30
(expired on 2018-11-08 22:53:59)

[Almost50]

a50 are you sayin i should quickhammer this?

Yes. Let's do this and wait for NSG to tell us if we succeeded.

P.S. This -of course- doesn't mean we can't continue to post and converse until she does. Let's move on with the game as if the coalition had already failed until we get the confirmation.

[Almost50]

1- I eat rope
2- Lynch Chara << The one that makes most sense for everyone to be content with the coalition choices if it includes scum, and regardless of whether the other is in or out of it

3-a If Chara is scum, then skitter is confirmed a townie and should lead the Town. She was guaranteed her place a long time ago yet she still cared whom to pick.

3-b If Chara flips town, then I'm a douchebag and I've just caused the town to lose

4- (only applicable if 3-a is true): Lynch MME, and if the game doesn't end go in this order: Aubrey/no lunch/Sky/Irrelephant

Basically if the coalition doesn't work I'm betting the game on skitter/Gamma being both Town.

If anyone has any remarks as to why someone doesn't make sense as scum with CHARA now is the town to say so. If someone thinks someone is more likely to be Chara's p IF Chara is scum, step forward and state your case.

If none of the above, then we can talk about other combinations assuming Chara is Town, but not before we've exhausted all possibilities of them being scum, because that's the most sensible assumption with almost everyone looking relaxed.

Why Aubrey above the rest? because he was comfortable dropping his place in the coalition in Gamma's favour. Unless Aubrey AND Gamma are the scum team I don't see how that works unless Aubrey is scum AND his p was already in the coalition.

I have other things to take care of, so I will keep one eye here and another elsewhere.

[Almost50]

uh. yeah. i'm town. seriously Almost?

You can offer your own scheme and we can discuss. No? Who should we lynch from the coalition if it fails? Why? Who is their likely partner? Let's all lay out cards on the table now and we will see how that goes.

[Almost50]

why in the hell didn't you just keep me out of the coalition?

1- Because then it would have been harder for me to gauge others behavior.
2- Because there was no way in hell to get you out of it in the first place. You already had 7 votes when I came in.

Make no mistake I still think you're Town with no less than 90% confidence, but you know me better than anyone. I don't go with my guts when I have a mechanical base to build on, so give me something that doesn't include the word "feel" and I will consider it.

[Almost50]

also the first step is lynching you to "confirm" you, when basically everyone besides no lunch is townreading you. why is an intentional mislynch a step?

Because if I switch it then I will become the first suspect anyway. I mean, let's assume I go "Let's lynch Chara". The natural response from most everyone would be "Why the sudden change?" and it will take me a whole lot of effort to explain. Now even assuming we did lynch you first and you flipped Town I'd be the second lynch anyway. I'm saving everyone the trouble of going in circles for the next 2 gamedays. You KNOW everybody will be paranoid of me if I don't lynch scum today, assuming the coalition does fail. And if people are being skeptical about me scum won't be shooting me either.

[Almost50]

or why you odn't have a plan for what happens if chara flips town

Because I can't see you as scum. I don't get Aubrey scum unless it's with Chara or Gamma.

Hmm.. maybe Aubrey with skitter would make sense to someone else? I mean, you were also guaranteed your place when Aubrey decided to remove himself. That's 3 possible scum partners with Aubrey if he is scum, but then I hard TR you and Gamma.

*Sigh*

People are reacting to my plan as if it was gospel, when I want it to be discussed, opposed, dismantled to pieces before being approved or rejected.

@Chara: Do NOT get defensive. Go along with the discussion and make your own points. Exclude yourself. You know what? Assume you're going to eat rope today. You are now confirmed a townie starting tomorrow 9in which you won't be in the game) so you had better give us your best shot on how to go from there. Just like I did. remove yourself and assume the coalition failed and let's see where you want us to go.

[Almost50]

i think the amount of people pushing against chara being townread early on makes me think chara is more likely town than not

a50 is town af

OK. Let me accept this argument for Chara to be Town from you. Who's scum based on how things went from then on? Who would you lynch from the coalition if it was mod-confirmed it failed? Why? Who is the most likely partner for that first lynch, whether in or out of the coalition? What makes you think they're teamed together?

Just keep in mind the first lynch must be IN the coalition because that's where we

know

there's scum if the game doesn't end. The second lynch could either be in or out of it. I'll do all possible pairings and then start excluding some with explanations, and putting some as more likely also with explanations. I just need to have a good 2 hours of free time to do that.

[Almost50]

what was your thought process in deciding on me here? what about skitter? or elephant?
Aubrey is the one i do understand, because i doubt he's scum with an untownread partner, unless it's Gamma as you said.

I explained it earlier. basically when I cam in you were about the only one guaranteed your place in the coalition. Even when I made the wrong assumption about how the coalition votes work I was keeping track of who was included in whose list. You remained on everyone's list always. pushing for Irrelephant to be in it was heavily resisted, and when he did get in it he couldn have been removed again with ease. He can't be scum with someone outside of the coalition. In other words, if he is scum his partner is also in the coalition. Theoretically it could be me, you, skitter or Aubrey, but I know it isn't me and I would bet the game on skitter being Town the way she's playing. She's so engaged even after having been declared a global TR. That's Town!her I'm sure.

Gamma also was hard to get in, but I think I did well in convincing everyone. So, same as Irrel his partner was already in the coalition if he's scum. This means Irrel+Gamma is a NOT a realistic scum team to consider.

Aubrey would either be scum with you, skitter or Gamma.. or maybe Irrel? I need to go back and see when exactly Aubrey decided to remove himself from his own list to refresh my memory.

no lunch -for instance- didn't resist his own removal from the coalition much. If he's scum his partner

must have been

there all along, or -maybe- it is Irrelephant whom I was pushing for the coalition instead on no lunch?

Do you now get an idea of how I'm going about this? I have not necessarily come to the final version of the plan, and I need to go check again.. but we have much time left on our hands with one piece of info that's about to get confirmed.

[Almost50]

scumteam was actually mme and me, we decided to concede because we were in an unrecoverable spot

*Sigh of relief*

So, my original argument was good, and you deflecting when I asked you how you would act if this was the case strengthened the feeling that you should not be in the coalition either.

Also

MME was scum

. This should be kept in everyone's minds: DO NOT GIVE A FREE PASS TO LURKERS.

[Almost50]

...and i'll apologize to Almost for getting angry about this when it didn't matter.
sorry Almost.

No problem. I anticipated the rage, tbh, and I was going to reconsider after the coalition got confirmed (i.e. if it failed) based on your reaction here.

[Almost50]

reaction testing

aubrey and chara were p quick to respond and i liked their responses

?? Seriously??? I mean,

SERIOUSLY

???

[Almost50]

OK.. leaving this thread for a little time. I gotta do what I gotta do elsewhere.. on and off the site (or the whole internet world even)

[Almost50]

i know many many people who make dad jokes

Ya mean like.. ?

Son: Dad, can you put the cat out?
Dad: I didn’t know it was on fire.

[Almost50]

Is this seriously what you expect from me at this point?

You are but one vote, my friend. I know some others would. skitter -for instance- is very paranoid as town. She would 2nd guess her read on me if I don't catch scum in 2 days. no lunch doesn't trust me already, and I dunno who's going to replace MME.

Now assuming all of these 3 slots are Town it won't be hard to lynch me starting D2.

[Almost50]

LOL.. mod flaked, and players don't want to post anymore. How about that?

[Almost50]

I have no incentive to follow your plan.

This is not a poll. This is a debate. If you don't want something you need to propose an alternative. So, give me your proposed plan, please.

[Almost50]

And who are the partners? Or are you suggesting it's a skitter/Irrel scum team?

[Almost50]

I still want to play, outside of regretting certain playstyle decisions!
Currently quite eager for post-game discussion, however long that takes.

Good. Would you be so kind as to propose an alternative path to the one I proposed?

[Almost50]

Oh, well. GG all, and

GG Gamma

. Sorry your p wasn't much of a help.

Also, thank you for modding, NSG. I hope you're not disappointed the game ended so fast.

@All: When in doubt, lynch the 3-posts lurker.

[Almost50]

@NSG: Mafia Hideout link leads to Dead Thread (as does the Dead Thread link).

fixed! -nsg

[Almost50]

Not at all! Something I like about this setup is that, as opposed to perhaps a regular game of mafia, scum who just lurk and kind of fly under the radar get punished for doing so. I think in some sense that promotes good play for both alignments, no? Lurking can be kind of a "perverse incentive" for scum and I feel like this setup gets rid of that and forces them to be more active, which I think is a positive for the game.

although, to be fair, this may not exactly have been fair for gamma or for any mafia whose partner seems to flake on them - there's not really much to be done about that.


if anybody would be interested in another run of this setup, i'd be interested to know (either publicly or privately). like i said, i find it very enjoyable to both moderate and to spectate, so if someone is unsatisfied at how this one ended or if they want to try their hand again at day one PoE creation (or perhaps try their hand at infiltrating townblocks?), i'd be happy to put it in the queue again.

Remind me later. Right now I'm afraid I've got both my hands full.

[Almost50]

well i feel like an ass for arguing for town-gamma now

Are you calling

me

an ass?

[Almost50]

Um.. post the video clip for "Innocent Man" by Billy Joel, maybe??

[Almost50]

Almost50, I owe you a banana. Apologies for the misrepresentation.

Well played, everybody.

yeah, no problem. It happens all the time. Everyone who plays me for the first time SRs me for some reason.