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Post #178 (isolation #13) » Fri Nov 18, 2022 10:07 am
Postby Pavowski »
In post 162, JunkoChan wrote:Una is probably not scum, because 1 mafia could have hammered?
unless they were both arlready in there
In post 166, JunkoChan wrote:I just checked timers tho, Una was at E-1 for less than 10 mins
You caught this before I could point it out. If anything it's probably more of an argument for scum!Dann as averting the quick hammer is a tasty way to win some cred
But by the same token it's an argument for town!Dann
In post 162, JunkoChan wrote:Una is probably not scum, because 1 mafia could have hammered?
unless they were both arlready in there
Wait, what?
> Una is at E-1
> Mafia sees it and doesn't hammer
How do these two facts imply Una is town?
if one scum partner hammers town he just tree stumps himself
in this setup they benefit a lot from ending this phase early
Huh, I actually hadn't considered that but yes, that's something scum can do.
So
only put people at E-1 if you're ok with them dying
. I will side-eye you if you do it too early
In post 162, JunkoChan wrote:Una is probably not scum, because 1 mafia could have hammered?
unless they were both arlready in there
I finally see what you mean. (We're considering a hypothetical in which Una was at E-1 for longer than 10 minutes.) You mean the possibilities are
> 0-1 scum on Una's wagon - in which case, why did it not get hammered?
> 2 scum on Una's wagon - in which case, Una is town.
The issue is you're not accounting for the fact Una's wagon could have failed to get hammered
because she is scum
.
In post 171, JunkoChan wrote:unless both scum members were already on the wagon, which I think I should note for later
The possibility of this strikes me as exceedingly remote right this minute
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Post #185 (isolation #17) » Fri Nov 18, 2022 10:17 am
Postby Pavowski »
In post 175, Aisa wrote:Sorry if I'm stating the obvious, somehow I can't tell if I'm just explicitly saying things everyone else figured out two hours ago lol.
I'll speak for myself; Never assume I figured something out ahead of you
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Post #238 (isolation #20) » Fri Nov 18, 2022 1:25 pm
Postby Pavowski »
In post 237, Nona1510 wrote:Nona
Moon
Pavowski
Junko
Aisa
Elements
Una
Dann
IV
is where I’m currently at.
Dann and IV huh?
See this is why I expect to struggle in this game, because IV is the only player in this list that I've seen a lot of (played with Ydrasse a couple times but those games always felt fast) (might have played one with Dann). Not that I think my meta reads are particularly good to begin with.
Sorry, that's my stoned brain asking if your reads are meta or purely from the thread
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Post #241 (isolation #21) » Fri Nov 18, 2022 1:43 pm
Postby Pavowski »
Cool.
In post 239, Nona1510 wrote:I think that Dann and Una look unaligned. IV feels extremely awkward and self-conscious. Like his reasoning for voting Una is obviously wrong yet, he hasn’t unvoted her. Like straight up, if you sr her, vote her and if you tl her, unvote.
See I would disagree on IV -- I just don't think he's gonna get that uptight right off the gun.
Sorry I have Star Trek playing in the background and the episode started off in German or some such nonsense and it almost broke my brain, because I am going on a magical mystery tour over here
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Post #304 (isolation #35) » Sat Nov 19, 2022 11:26 am
Postby Pavowski »
Just reminding all of us that when Una was e-1 Dann unvoted in record time, so all "Una should have been hammered if ..." arguments are moot and probably not helpful
In post 300, Pavowski wrote:Ok Elements, what are your thoughts on Moon, and/or what are your thoughts on Moon being e-2?
I think Moon is prob town.
2? of the votes of Moon are about her not being Ydrasse so idk what to think about that
+1
Need to catch up but that wagon is horrible. That slot is really obvtown.
Elements is also town. These two players should never be wagoned.
Pavowski, Moon is probably still Ydrasse but even if she isn’t, what is scum!Moon’s possible motive for claiming to lie about that? How does that further some kind of scum agenda in your mind? I’m well aware of lim all liars - if it even is an actual lie and not what I’m more inclined to view as probable trolling - but that’s a terrible reason for voting her.
I'm perfectly willing to be convinced on town!Moon. But obvtown? Obvtown??
I didn't vote Moon just because of the Ydrasse thing (as I said to IV shortly ago, I have expended all the fooks on that one that I'm gonna)
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Post #329 (isolation #37) » Sat Nov 19, 2022 2:00 pm
Postby Pavowski »
In post 317, Moonview wrote:I'd be interested in what people not on my wagon think of dannflor.
The thing that made me think his push on me wasn't genuine was the part he said I was scum because I shitposted and that wasn't the most important thing I could post upon entering the thread. I think that's an unfair standard to hold my posting to and I don't see why Dann pushes that line of argument as town. Is my assessment there unfair?
See, I think Dann has some decent points but maybe reads them too harshly/strongly (of course we're early game here so what can we do but blow theories out of proportion, wheee). This in particular is why I am taking Dann's read with a grain of salt.
In post 162, JunkoChan wrote:Una is probably not scum, because 1 mafia could have hammered?
unless they were both arlready in there
Wait, what?
> Una is at E-1
> Mafia sees it and doesn't hammer
How do these two facts imply Una is town?
if one scum partner hammers town he just tree stumps himself
in this setup they benefit a lot from ending this phase early
This just seems straight up wrong? If it's advantageous for scum to hammer immediately then surely if someone is at E-1 and isn't hammered, surely that's scum indicative for the wagonned party?
With how quickly Dann unvoted I agree it's probably insignificant but as Aisa posted before the unvote that makes me think she isn't scum with town!Una. Which I'm surprised Junko didn't mention?
In post 176, JunkoChan wrote:@Aisa true, but what are the odds that the first wagon of the game was on scum?
This seems so disingenuous looking back on it. Junko pointed out a reason to think Una is town, that's just wrong? then gets questioned on it leading to the above quote that isn't in any way meaningful and uses false logic. It's a soft town push on Una, that comes after the previous town push that was questioned.
this ^ is all working off an Una/Junko team. Outside of that I think it looks worse for Junko. VOTE: Junkochan
I mean, I agree with you that Junko is pretty plainly wrong about everything she was saying there, but I think it's more town indicative than scum indicative honestly? People do not like admitting that they are wrong and generally like to stick to their beliefs in my experience. If anything it points to her being invested in her logic being right, as opposed to scum who wouldn't really care and would be fine admitting their 'deductions' were wrong since they never actually believed any of it mattered.
This kinda leans town for me on Moon, actually
This sounds like somebody making good faith efforts to sort somebody
In post 328, Pavowski wrote:I didn't vote Moon just because of the Ydrasse thing (as I said to IV shortly ago, I have expended all the fooks on that one that I'm gonna)
I mean, you didn't give any other reason afaik.
I am allowed to have secret reasons, but just to name a few
1. I agree with Dann's points about you, generally
2. Wagons make things happen and I wanted to see what would happen
3. Una wagon experiment was over for the moment
4. The lolz
I think the most likely candidates at the mo are, in no particular order:
Moon
Aisa
Una
Can't get a read on Junko yet, or IV for that matter, aside from what I've already said there
I'm feeling as town for now:
Dann
Nona for some reason
I've left somebody off this list... oh it's the Axolotl -- yeah Elements is still kinda null leaning town but it's mostly a tonal read so I'm not putting a whole lot of stock in that really
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Post #352 (isolation #45) » Sun Nov 20, 2022 2:13 am
Postby Pavowski »
I should also point out that townbinning Dann for the moment is the life decision I'm most nervous about in this game so far, but day 1 is for making mistakes
WHY IS EVERYONE SO OBSESSED WITH MY READ ON THEM THIS GAME ALL THESE QUESTIONS
You also have towny vibes actually
In post 330, Pavowski wrote:Also y'alls can sign me up for some sus on the bunny, I don't vibe with the little hop into the thread here this evening
But I said I'd wait three days to vote there and I am a dude of my word
I wanted to ask why it is a matter of voting me when you could just, like, talk to me
Which to be fair you just did, so yeah
You were gone and, especially in the early phase, I like a back-and-forth with somebody over posting and hoping they'll read it later.
I'm not particularly obsessed with your read on me, I just noticed I was left off and, if we were scum together, that would be an issue for me, but since we're not, it's only interesting
As for my feel on you I think a lot of your posts have a hedging kind of feel and it's tickling my spidey-sense. Not that I never hedge. I mean I do sometimes, but not always, and certainly not about anything important. Usually.
Not taking a position feels to other players like waiting to see which way the wind blows
Which is not in and of itself scummy but it certainly carries the look and connotation of not being not scummy
Yeah I guess this is fair, but it also annoys me because being hedgy is a way of life for me
I don’t think I’m scared of reversing strong reads, so I don’t get this site’s general fondness for scumreading hedginess
But also yes I will try to have more reads I’m willing to stand behind soon
It annoys me too but this is the life we have chosen.
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Post #402 (isolation #51) » Sun Nov 20, 2022 9:28 am
Postby Pavowski »
In post 401, Moonview wrote:Sadly, due to many components involving critical analysis of your intention, timing and comprehension of reading the thread, I have concluded making that joke makes you confirmed scum because it is not the most important thing you could have posted at this time.
VOTE: JunkoChan
I see what you did there.
Just got in from a road trip, reading back a little
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Post #403 (isolation #52) » Sun Nov 20, 2022 9:33 am
Postby Pavowski »
In post 388, Aisa wrote:Ah yes, also I think Pav can be town for now though I'd still like an answer to my last question.
IV, do you think you'll ever have thoughts about the game?
Were you talking about the question of why I don't like your hedging?
I mean I can simultaneously hold that we prejudice against hedging overmuch while also realizing the kernel of truth that hedging is not particularly pro-town.
I don't know if that answers your question. I'm a little thrown off by Moon saying I've done nothing that wasn't awful. I think at the least I've made a couple decent jokes
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Post #406 (isolation #54) » Sun Nov 20, 2022 10:06 am
Postby Pavowski »
Aisa could you like clarify why you think the moon wagon is a mistake here?
Also I forgot to mention I'm mostly phoneposting for the next few days so my apologies in advance for typos and rogue quotes. Add it to the list of Not Good Things I've Done
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Post #444 (isolation #58) » Sun Nov 20, 2022 1:42 pm
Postby Pavowski »
Well, dammit. I was not expecting that level of depth and response. If Bunny is scum I don't know what the hell to make of 434. I might have to put Aisa in the town bin. Not ready to vote Dann with you, though.
I have only in the last hour or so started thinking about the setup and it's breaking my brain regarding how the scum team should be acting here