Micro 687: Vanilluxe Mafia - Mafia Victory!!!

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VOTE: Sobolev Space

Hi Sobolev! I'm town this time, are you?

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VOTE: Eddie Cane

why didn't you say anything when you made this vote?

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I thought it was pretty safe and NAI. I don't really townread her for it but I also didn't think it was worth pushing against you townreading her for it. I've only played one game with SS and I was scum so I don't really have any familiarity with her scumgame or how to read her, I was just poking her to start things off

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to me it seemed if she were scum she'd likely have focused on directly addressing the question in the latter part of the statement rather than focusing on paranoia wrt the former part
i'll admit i have fuckall else to go on in this game so far

eh yeah I mean I think that line of reasoning is sound, but I also think some people when they're town will openly just be like "yes I'm town! " and she didn't really do that either. Like it's also possible scum!S_S would know she needs to act like she doesn't know that I'm town and so defaulting to a funny youtube video is a safe way to do that. I don't really have a strong feeling towards one world or the other so I'm meh on it.

But yeah, this game is definitely slow going so far and I appreciate you trying to make stuff happen

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basically my plan on dealing with S_S is if she's town she should probably recognize quickly that this is not my scumgame, so if she scumreads me then she's confirmed scum. If she townreads me then she could be either alignment still, but at least it'll be one fewer person to push a mislynch on me

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I've played probably like at least 40/50

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S_S no response to my 36?

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I mean duh it's illogical, it's meant to get more out of Sobolev and be cheeky. That's why I put a emoticon

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Since that doesn't seem to be coming, I also want to know how GulityLion was perceiving it when he made 26

yah I mean that's why I asked, I couldn't tell if it was because of Eddie's self-vote or meant to be an RVS. I would guess it was a serious vote since it was naked but if that's the case I don't know why you wouldn't just explain it at the same time.

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Now that I reread it, the second sentence looks like trying to keep suspicion on. The first sentence also kinda looks like GL read into what Bork was trying to get at and answered accordingly.

It is absolutely meant to keep suspicion on. I didn't like the naked vote and I didn't like her response to me, I see no reason to townread SBF yet. This thought from you feels intellectually lazy, as if you're operating from a framework where casting suspicion on anyone is automatically scummy.

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I'm about here

{bork, TTTT}
{lowell, eddie}
{SS, bella}
{fro99er}
{SBF}

let's wagon this
VOTE: SweetBlueFlowers

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generally I feel like fro99er is making too big of a deal out of what I perceive to be a pretty throwaway comment from bella in 51. Like I don't think "bork/GL interaction is not S-S" is

that

strong of a conclusion, and I can pretty easily envision worlds where town!Bella makes that remark.

bork, I feel you in that fro99er believes in the logic in his meta push on bella, but I don't think you should conflate that with whether he believes in the conclusion, and I think that's the beauty of it. If he's scum here, he can start with a flawed assumption ("bella jumped to a conclusion early"), then use a valid, well-sourced argument about her play that he honestly believes ("town Bella doesn't jump to conclusions early") to make a convincing case and a plausible scumread. It's something I recognize in my own scum play, I try to drum up cases that are plausibly and logically sound and then sell them with conviction to mask the fact that I already know the conclusion is wrong.

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then vote me, not sbf

Here's some wifom, but why would I push bella if I were scum? It does me no good to push her when I know she's going to initially be paranoid of me as town (because she always is when she's town). Especially after the only other time I rolled scum while bella was town was the very first time I played with her, and I pushed her there. My best play as scum is to buddy her, make her feel comfortable with me, and go from there. It does a scum version of me no good to push bella here at this stage of the game.


Also, why are you townreading eddie? I don't really see a reason to townread him yet.

I don't really agree that it would do scum!Fro99er "no good" to push bella early. The most important thing for scum early is to look like they're sorting the game and to break up any potential town-blocs that are forming, and if you think bella could become a strong town voice then it's helpful to discredit her and start sowing seeds of doubt early on. And who knows, maybe a bunch of people would sheep you on this logic and either you'd get an early mislynch or you could flip it around where you start to see her as town and instead direct your attention to those who jumped on an early bella wagon.

I'm townreading eddie cause I feel he's not playing with an agenda and he's been rather transparent in posts like 94, 99, 116

Add GL to the list of people willing to scumread me but not vote me.

See this kind of thing just reads to me as scummy, lazy play. It's not inherently scummy to have suspicion on someone but not vote them. I currently feel I would gain more information and move the game to a better state by joining eddie on SBF.

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{bork,

TTTT

}
{

lowell

, eddie}
{SS, bella}
{fro99er}
{SBF}

I'd like to pick your brain about the bolded

specifically I don't think TTTT has done really anything but throw out some vaguely reasoned townreads and asked a couple questions; was surprised to see him on your top tier
lowell I just don't really have a good handle on; I find him opaque and don't empathize with the reasoning behind most of his reads

so I don't really expect everyone else to agree with me on this, but 150 rang town for me for a few reasons:
- the strong SS townread seems unnatural to come from scum - I don't think SS has done anything especially obvtown this game to force a TR, and I would expect scum to try to keep her mislynchable if she's town. I also don't see much of an incentive for a scum!TTTT to try to defend/TR a town!SS here either because she's also not receiving a lot of attention/wagon pressure. Basically, I don't think it's an angle that scum!TTTT would have taken with his reads here, especially this early.
- he mentions being "nervous" about fro99er which I imagine is coming from the same suspicion/issues I had with his posts, before I had come to the thread to bring those up
- he actually doesn't give a read on you when he answered the question. I think someone operating from a scum mindset would be more likely to throw in a read on the person questioning them, instead it reads to me like he's in a mindset of genuinely giving you info to work with.

Lowell I wouldn't say I have a good handle on either, just mostly feels like he's legitimately trying to game-solve. I'd say him reversing his read on you from 65 to 114 is the thing that vibes town to me the most, but it's definitely a weaker read.

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On a more serious note, I've skimmed through Frog's iso in a couple other games and I'm not seeing this as scum. His play in Mini 1734 (http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=53&t=63822) reminds me a lot of his this game (although I haven't read it too in depth). Null for now.

what specifically about his play in that game reminds you of this game? What other games did you skim? And why go through the motion of explaining this just to shelve him at a nullread?

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I will say that the reasoning for my TR on TTTT is dependent on SS actually being town. A SS scumflip would swing me to taking a harder look at TTTT again. Eddie asked him about why he was townreading SS, I'd like to see him answer that

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also in thinking about it more I feel this setup incentivizes scum to either lay the foundation for a strong and consistent TR on their partner on D3 or bus them prior to D3, so I guess we should all be on the look out for that

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obviously both alignments do it - i do it - but I typically see scum being the ones to call someone town out of seemingly nothing. it gets that person on their side, while seemingly looking townie for directing the lynch strongly away from someone. I'm neutral on tttt, but I disagree with that being a good reason to town read someone.

see I generally agree with this, but I don't think SS would be the townie that TTTT would do that with. She's been pretty low key and under the radar. There's no lynch to strongly direct away, and there's no massive SS presence that needs to be buddied/pocketed/townread.

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Now that I reread it, the second sentence looks like trying to keep suspicion on. The first sentence also kinda looks like GL read into what Bork was trying to get at and answered accordingly.

It is absolutely meant to keep suspicion on. I didn't like the naked vote and I didn't like her response to me, I see no reason to townread SBF yet. This thought from you feels intellectually lazy, as if you're operating from a framework where casting suspicion on anyone is automatically scummy.

I think Fro99er has shown he is the opposite of intellectually lazy - I want to come back to a poost from him in a second. Can you expand a little on your last sentence?

Well, Fro99er has since pointed out that he didn't say that people on his "list" are scummy, which makes me wonder why he's even keeping it. Just pointing out that players scumread him but are not voting him doesn't give any actual insight into his thoughts on those players. Like, he's noted/implied that Lowell, TTTT, and I have all done this, but we can't all be scum.

It's possible that he's fishing for reactions/responses to his "list" and using this to make reads, but he hasn't been open about that so far. So I'm saying that just pointing out that you have this list, and yet not offering actual reads about it, is lazy. At best, he's holding back.

I will say that the reasoning for my TR on TTTT is dependent on SS actually being town. A SS scumflip would swing me to taking a harder look at TTTT again. Eddie asked him about why he was townreading SS, I'd like to see him answer that

ummm say what about pre-associatives before a flip? Can you explain this a little?

yes, say what about pre-associative before a flip. I just explained that my reason for townreading TTTT is that I don't think scum!TTTT would have made that townread on a town!SS. It follows that if SS is scum, that reasoning does not apply and it's therefore possible TTTT could be scum with her.

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what specifically about his play in that game reminds you of this game?

His focus on meta reads and (to a lesser degree) wifom.

but Fro99er has already said in this game that he uses wifom as either alignment. I'm having a hard time believing that you think one similar use of wifom in a town game would therefore make him town in this one - but then again, you didn't even say he was town (see point below).

I'd like to see him comment on this.

And why go through the motion of explaining this just to shelve him at a nullread?

Because it was information that contributed to my read on him?

but, null is not a read? You literally made no conclusion about what you think his alignment is. I'm asking why bother to post in that case, you're citing evidence for the sake of evidence without actually giving us something to work with in regards to your read on him.

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GL's last few posts are atrocious.

What about them is "atrocious"? Do you disagree with my points, or do you think I am scummy for making them?

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Questions in 209, especially the last one, seemed pointless

Well I disagree, I saw you making a lazy meta comment and I wanted to dive into it more. Why did you think they were pointless?

"I don't understand why TTTT is strongly TR-ing SS so he's probably town"

It's not that I don't understand, it's that I didn't believe there was any scum motivation to it.

How on earth would scum town reading some rando direct away a lynch? Who do you think scum would choose to fake TR instead of me?

I mean you just saw how I did it with EccentricLemon in our Newbie Game, I recognized people were going to scumread her/push on her so I decided to townread her and it kept her alive to endgame.

If I were scum at the time of TTTT's 150 I'd probably oddball TR someone like Fro99er or Eddie (assuming that they're town) instead.

@gl, do you think he even thinks it's scummy at this point? i mean, part of me gets his frustration about throwing shade (also, he called me not town and didn't vote me, so...) but
i agree, the comments would be better with clearer reads attached.

would town!ttt make that read on town!ss though? it just feels an arse-backwards way of looking at it? I mean, I'm town-reading ss anyway...

The thing I didn't like was that I got the impression from Fro99er initially that he was calling it out as if it's scummy behavior, and I didn't think that logic held up. But he made it a point to clarify that he wasn't, so presumably he agrees.

on my TTTT townread, in a game where 6/8 players (FMPOV) are town, a strong example of an absence of scumminess is an indicator of towniness IMO. I just don't see a reason scum!TTTT would have taken that angle, and I even already said I don't expect everyone to agree with me on that. This whole conversation started because bork wanted me to explain why I had him in that top tier.

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explain '
If I were scum at the time of TTTT's 150 I'd probably oddball TR someone like Fro99er or Eddie (assuming that they're town) instead.' to me?

i have mixed feelings about the last past of your post. so it's mainly because they specifically tr ss over anyone else there?

like, if I were scum in TTTT's shoes and also assuming that I knew Fro99er and Eddie were town (and SS too I guess), and bork asked me for reads, then I'd probably townread one of them instead. SS seems more mislynchable than Fro99er would be, and Eddie at that point seemed too mislynchable where you'd probably "look more town" and buddy him by townreading him. It's kinda hard for me to think about it or explain beyond that since I'm now making boatloads of assumptions and trying to think from a perspective that I don't really have.

The main point is just yeah, I don't think scum!TTTT would have so strongly TR'd a town!SS there, I don't see any scum benefit to it. It would be narrowing his lynchpool without appearing to achieve much towncred for it. Which is why I want to give him towncred for it.

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I think this post from another game might help explain it some too.

In that game Creature had said he thought scum was in a group of 4 people (although none of them were scum ), which I townread him for at the time since I liked where his head was at and I didn't see any scum benefit to narrowing his lynchpool that quickly to those four players by page 2. Blackstar started pushing him on it, and I made the point in that post:

"What does scum!Creature gain from narrowing his scumpool to 4 people so quickly? If he has to change his mind on something later to get a mislynch, that just makes him look bad."

which is similar reasoning to what I'm thinking here, I just see absolutely no gain for scum!TTTT to make a strong townread on SS there. The only scum motivation I could see for that read is if they're paired together and he's trying to promote townreads on her and give himself a history of townreading her so that he can plausibly avoid voting her later in the game on D3. But it's more likely that TTTT is just town than it is he's scum with SS, ergo, I think he's town.

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If I were scum at the time of TTTT's 150 I'd probably oddball TR someone like Fro99er or Eddie (assuming that they're town) instead.

Actually wait, if you're calling this an 'oddball' TR that ostensibly scum would do why is SS [that you have described as an unconventional townread] any different

I mean you just saw how I did it with EccentricLemon in our Newbie Game, I recognized people were going to scumread her/push on her so I decided to townread her and it kept her alive to endgame.

Ok yeah you're literally giving an example of you doing the thing as scum that you're townreading TTTT (at your highest tier) for doing

?

eh SS was asking me about how townreading a rando would keep the lynch off of them, so I gave an example of that. The reason I feel this scenario (TTTT townreading SS) is different is because I didn't think SS was immediately likely as a D1 lynch candidate, whereas my memory of that Newbie game was EL was definitely mislynchable early. I probably shouldn't have even answered that question from SS about who I'd expect scum to TR instead, it's not really relevant to my main thought which is I don't see why scum!TTTT would townread her in particular there.

and I didn't really think all of this through to this deep of a level when I first read TTTT's post, I feel I'm getting bogged down in people asking me to explain every ounce of my thought process for an idea that I didn't think was gonna be immediately intuitive to everyone anyway

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basically I guess like,

a. when you're scum and you take a hard townread on someone, you're removing them from being a wagon you can be on, this is usually not good for you since it narrows your options and so you usually want to be careful about it and plan ahead

b. however sometimes it's beneficial when you think the wagon will be strong without you, because then you can get some towncred if the mislynch goes through, and you can push your "desired lynch" instead for multiple days while townies remain fixated on the shiny thing (what I was trying to point to as an example of what I did with EL in the Newbie game)

c. so when it's someone who hasn't really attracted any attention or scumreads whatsoever, you don't really get the benefit of b, so I don't see why scum!TTTT would have done it with hypothetical town!SS there. I was trying to point to hypothetical town!Eddie instead as an example of where the b) scenario seems plausible

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don't have time for a real post today but just checking in to acknowledge that horrendous SBF case on me. I'll destroy it tomorrow

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I actually like most of Fro99er's page 11 posting.

But let's get to this

Opening posts were awkward and LAMIST.

What was awkward about them? And are you calling it "LAMIST" literally just because I said "I'm town this time"? Because that's an

extreeeemely

weak case for LAMIST, and it looks to me like you just wanted to put the "scummy buzzword" in.

His SR on this slot lacks any semblance of authenticity and he basically just followed Cane.

Where did I even act like it was an "authentic scumread"? I saw someone lurking and not playing the game and I sheeped a townlean and voted them. I didn't write up a bunch of buzzwords and crap about how I thought you were scum. Like, this is something where you're describing my play but not actually pointing to why that makes me scum.

Most of his content consists of back-seat theorizing and ad-hoc hypothesis about what he or another would do as Y alignment, rather than actual hunting and sorting.

I feel this is the most disingenuous point of all. All of my "back-seat theorizing" and "hypothesis about what I would do as Y alignment" is entirely because people kept repeatedly pressing me on

how I had attempted to sort TTTT

. I'm answering multiple questions from eddie/bork/bella in those posts to explain my thought process and here you're pretending like I'm not doing anything else in between. I think anyone who was looking at my ISO with genuine intentions would see that I am making efforts to sort and probe people - take for example, my vote on you - and the way you're just handwaving a shitty summary of my play here reads extremely uncharitable to me.

I like Space's initial response to GL, but the followup is too superficial and then quickly written off. I haven't seen the slot attempting to sort anyone in a serious way and the times it has given the appearance of doing so have been devoid of what I like to call the fire to find scum.

That said, I actually do agree with this, so the fact that you're saying it is throwing a bit of a wrench in my reads.

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Scumvibes from GL, not sure how everyone is seeing that guy as town. Opportunistic as whoa. Continued scumvibes from frogger, who looks like he's trying to pocket everyone.

VOTE: Lowell

I don't think town!Lowell would call me "opportunistic" here. It's simply not a meaningful or accurate description of my play, especially when the game is still early/halfway through D1, so I'm having a hard time seeing where he could be honestly coming from with that perspective.

From the beginning and his half-assed pocketing attempt on SS this guy has been slimy. I could squint and see null, but the townreads on this slot are appalling.

This line also strikes me as scummy, Lowell doesn't operate in null reads and uncertainty. The last line reads to me like it's designed to make people think he's genuinely attempting to sort me or perhaps also to keep me townreading him. Didn't work.

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I also reject the idea that my interactions with SS read anything like a "pocketing attempt". I started the game by pushing on SS and trying to get her to post or explain herself when she made low effort posts, and I have not once moved her above a null/null-scummy read. So it's not clear to me how Lowell could see that as pocketing, unless there's some new meta where repeatedly questioning and scumreading someone you played with last game is the best way to "pocket" them.

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sorry for the oncoming wall, I'm trying to keep this concise and hitting the important points

And are you calling it "LAMIST" literally just because I said "I'm town this time"? Because that's an

extreeeemely

weak case for LAMIST, and it looks to me like you just wanted to put the "scummy buzzword" in.

8 and 36 are both "me? scum? no way!", and your attempt to deflect this by calling the use of an abbreviation scummy is in fact a maneuver commonly used by scum to discredit those who bring cases against them.

Buzzwords are actually only scummy when they're used in absence of a real argument

, not as a way to succintly represent an argument, and in either case it isn't the word itself that is the issue.

and my point is that you've actually made NO ARGUMENT here, except paraphrasing my posts and assuming that I'm scum posting them.

Thank you for proving my point. I am your sole scum read in 169 and yet there was clearly no sincerity behind it. Now you are attempting to distance yourself from your prior stance while casting suspicion on my slot for unrelated content, also known as backpedalling and shading.

You're arguing that it's scummy to not have a sincere and thorough scumread 160 posts in the game, which I find hard to believe. I had no townvibes whatsoever from your opening two posts, saw no evidence of game-solving, wanted you to get pressured/wagoned. That's entirely different from saying "I am very confident that SBF is scum", which feels like the arbitrary and disingenuous standard that you'ree trying to impose on me.

also @bork the reason I had fro99er higher during that readslist was because I could see him ambiguously as either alignment, whereas I had no sense of towniness from SBF at all. But the more important point is that SBF is trying to equate my "lack of any sense of townread" into a "your scumread is fake", when there's a massive difference between "scumreading this person by PoE/not seeing them be town" vs "scumreading this person because you think their posts were actively scummy". SBF is acting like I'm scum for not operating in the latter, when I had been operating in the former.

I am actually describing the things that I find scum motivated, contraposed with what I would find Town motivated. Your content has no significant Town motivation that I can detect. Your content is largely devoid of game-advancing material and is full of material that I find ultimately purposeless and distracting.

Your radar for Town motivation is either miscalibrated or not being used in this game, sorry. Talking to my townreads to try to get them to understand/townread me is not "purposeless".

Your way of justifying your reads has been so opaque and theoretical that the only way to find fault with them is by attacking their logic, which would be playing to your game by getting caught up in tortuous argumentation with no real end-point, and they are entirely devoid of actual serious comment on play in THIS game. They are superficial. Your vote on me was, as you have said, a sheep of your townlean. You did not back it up with anything, as Cane did. Your vote isn't even on me anymore.

Except I didn't ever

want

people to argue with my townreads, but I will always respond to questions about them. If you seriously think I was actively trying to draw out that discussion about my townread on TTTT then you should go back and read that entire exchange again. Every post I made with "theory" was in response to people asking me to explain myself. like I fucking knew as I was getting more and more drawn into answering all of the questions that someone was then going to try to push me on this. That's why I kept saying "i don't expect people to agree", "it's probably not intuitive", etc etc.

And so what my vote isn't on you anymore? Why does that matter?

I called you opportunistic, albeit without using the actual word, and you stated that my description of your play was essentially accurate ("you're describing my play"), if mistaken in the resulting conclusions. You have caught yourself in a trap.

No you didn't, if you called it opportunistic please show me where you did. And this entire section reads to me like you care more about "scoring points" in the argument about my alignment more than honestly and openly assessing my play and my alignment.

Despite finding fault with every part of my case against you and calling me scummy, you are now voting the slot that was previously a townlean over the slot that was previously a scumread.

My read on Lowell changed because of his continued scumread on me for weak reasons. I changed the read. Why do you think that makes me scum, why is that something that cannot come from Town?

You cannot keep your vote on me because by doing so Town's focus remains on our exchange, which is something scum!GL would never want but which town!GL would have no problem with. Again, you display no sincerity in your desire to sort slots.

a) I can and will put my vote wherever the hell I want, thank you
and b) I will continue responding to every single post you make, so don't give me this bullshit about "not wanting focus on our exchange".

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also it's generally just absolutely rich that someone with 5 posts total in the game is accusing me for not having "game advancing content" when I've been making an effort to interact with nearly every player

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like SBF's argument boils down to

1) GL voted me but didn't believe it
2) GL moved his vote off of me when I pushed back on him
3) he must be doing this because he doesn't want attention on me calling him out

1) is because it's early and I usually don't have much conviction in my scumreads early unless I find something extremely compelling, which hasn't happened this game
2) was due to the fact that I hated Lowell's reasons for scumreading/voting me and I did think SBF made a good point about SS which made me question whether they are operating from a town mindset
3) is just assumptions and completely made up

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I am not tring gl.

in his defense for that particular part though, you (sfb) had next to 0 content a decent way into the game. wagoning that is fine, especially if he townread me at the time of voting.

the unfortunate thing is the wagon didn't even take off tbh

like it's kinda strange to me that we haven't hit an L-1 yet

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I like L-1s not for the claims but for the immediate threat of hammer

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I don't have time to give a proper response to SBF yet but the thing I hate about both their substantiated push/posts on me is that it seems like they're both built on axiomatically assuming that I'm scum first, then prescribing scum motive to everything I do, and then many underhanded attempts to dictate/control my behavior and frame me in a box where anything I do is scummy. Like first she said I was avoiding her by moving my vote, but then when I strongly bit back at that (because it's an incredibly obnoxious thing to say imo) then she says of course I can't avoid her because I'm forced to respond to her. It's like the motive is to bully me into submission/"flailing" rather than to game-solve. I almost feel like I

want

her to be scum even moreso than I actually think she is, because it's a really off-putting style of playing the game and if I'm lynched I don't see how she won't be the subsequent lynch.

I'll give her argument itself more attention later but I'd like to know if people are sensing these vibes as well. And I'm still good with a Lowell lynch, totally agree that he "sounds town" but isn't actually doing anything town. His response to me about calling everyone "opportunistic", while funny, is a total dodge over the point that I was making.

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oh and @SBF if you feel I misrepped your argument, the pro-town thing to do would be to clarify exactly where and what I misrepped instead of just calling it a misrep and attacking me. Townies usually get

indignant

when they feel misrepped and make it a point to explain what exactly what they said and meant, but she just seemed to take on a bravado instead and used it to attack me further

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Lowell doesn't operate in null reads and uncertainty.

Can you explain this?

I'm assuming this is a meta-based read.

Yeah, I played two games with Lowell previously (High Risk High Reward and One Night Ultimate Werewolf (not really mafia)), and in neither of them did Lowell ever say something was null or he could understand null reads, he always came out strong in every post. He actually called me "opportunistic" in HRHR too, but moved off onto actual scum shortly after

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he could squint and see null = "he could understand someone having a null read on that person with the iso that had been presented"

yeah Lowell also made this point as well, I misread it at the time and thought he was saying he could see me as null himself

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does that color your read at all?

I still think it was a strange thing to say, but less strange than if he were calling me null directly. Still scumreading him because I don't even understand why he is scumreading me and his open declaration that he won't re-evaluate seems more like angling for my mislynch rather than trying to gain information from his push.

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like I do want to try to revisit SBF's posts again with a cooler head later because at the very least she is giving reasons for pushing on me that I can try to understand. Lowell has no substance behind his push at all.

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I could get behind a Bella wagon

Fro99er / Eddie looks very much like a TvT to me, and the Lowell comment on Fro99er in 524 just doesn't ring true at all. I'm like 100% in agreement with what bork said in 503

I'm here
town: {bork, eddie, Fro99er, TTTT}
meh: {SS, SBF, Bella}
scum: {Lowell}

response to the SBF case forthcoming

[GuiltyLion]

You're arguing that it's scummy to not have a sincere and thorough scumread 160 posts in the game, which I find hard to believe. I had no townvibes whatsoever from your opening two posts, saw no evidence of game-solving, wanted you to get pressured/wagoned. That's entirely different from saying "I am very confident that SBF is scum", which feels like the arbitrary and disingenuous standard that you'ree trying to impose on me.

1 )

No townvibes = null. Significant scum vibes = SR. A SR is literally "I am confident this slot is scum". This is extremely straight-forward. There is meaningful contradiction in your stances and you can't talk your way out of this no matter how far you bend over backwards.

Your radar for Town motivation is either miscalibrated or not being used in this game, sorry. Talking to my townreads to try to get them to understand/townread me is not "purposeless".

2 )

I find your manner of discourse ultimately purposeless as the information provided by the exchanges does little to nothing to sort alignments according to any method of scumhunting I understand and it is far too early in the game to begin digesting reads with mutual TRs in the effort to reach compromise. There is simply no way to be sure enough in your reads on Day 1 for this and it is nonsensical to begin focusing on compromise when most of us have not even solidified our reads yet in the first place. Talking in this manner is, however, an excellent way to be TRed without actually producing content that advances the game state or roots out any scum. In short, your content lacks any meaningful Town motivation that I can detect.

And so what my vote isn't on you anymore? Why does that matter?

3a )

Because it makes no sense to move your vote off your SR immediately after finding fault in all of their content, and it makes less sense to vote the slot you previously townleaned because of an argument that your SR also made. If you weren't aware that I was calling you opportunistic I can only assume you were selectively reading my post.

No you didn't, if you called it opportunistic please show me where you did. And this entire section reads to me like you care more about "scoring points" in the argument about my alignment more than honestly and openly assessing my play and my alignment.

3b )

288: "His SR on this slot lacks any semblance of authenticity and he basically just followed Cane."

My read on Lowell changed because of his continued scumread on me for weak reasons. I changed the read. Why do you think that makes me scum, why is that something that cannot come from Town?

3c )

See above and my previous post for the answer.

a) I can and will put my vote wherever the hell I want, thank you
and b) I will continue responding to every single post you make, so don't give me this bullshit about "not wanting focus on our exchange".

4 )

Yes, you're forced to, given that I called you out. Changing your vote in the way you did strongly suggests that you wanted attention elsewhere, however. I don't believe that you lost your scumread on me after my post and gained a scumread on Lowell strong enough to warrant moving the vote, I believe that you moved your vote onto an easier target.

like SBF's argument boils down to

1) GL voted me but didn't believe it
2) GL moved his vote off of me when I pushed back on him
3) he must be doing this because he doesn't want attention on me calling him out

1) is because it's early and I usually don't have much conviction in my scumreads early unless I find something extremely compelling, which hasn't happened this game
2) was due to the fact that I hated Lowell's reasons for scumreading/voting me and I did think SBF made a good point about SS which made me question whether they are operating from a town mindset
3) is just assumptions and completely made up

5 )

This is a pretty sad attempt at a misrep, honestly. The fact that you're appealing to others in this way is highly suspect.

1 )

is not really how I play the game and make reads on D1, sorry. My axiom is more townvibes = less likely to be scum. I put you lower because you were not posting and had absolutely zero townvibes, whereas while some things Fro99er said pinged me on a gut level, I also thought there were some possible townvibes as well.

2 )

again, this seems like more of a playstyle issue. D1 for me is about nailing down some solid townreads without letting any scum into my personal town-block. In a game with 6 town and 2 scum, it's much easier to correctly find town than scum, and I find playstyles like yours (tunnel relentlessly on one player) to be extremely counterproductive as it only requires 1 or 2 misreads to suddenly put yourself in LYLO and with no foundation to work with and understand the other players. I also disagree that "wanting to be TRd" is scummy, everyone wants to be TR'd regardless of alignment. I think it's bad play to be mislynchable, especially in a setup like this one with no PRs.

3a )

Why is it so hard for you to understand that I actively found Lowell's posting much scummier than yours? That doesn't mean I suddenly townread you, it just means I wanted a Lowell wagon

even harder

.

3b )

And I don't see that description as being "opportunistic". Sheeping eddie on an early L-3 wagon is opportunistic how? It's not like you were in immediate danger of being lynched.

3c )

You kinda ignored the point of the question here, which is why aren't you considering any town motivation behind my posting? I get why you can frame it in a scum narrative, but I'm missing any evidence that you're genuinely evaluating my play as possibly coming from town too.

4 )

See point 3a.

5 )

I said this before, but if you're gonna call something a misrep, I'd like you to explain exactly what you feel was misrepresented.

[GuiltyLion]

His entire case on me amounts to "Lowell thinks in extremes and said someone is null. CONTRADICTION!" I can make his case against me better than he can, and it only took me one sentence.

also, HERE is a good example of a misrep. The "null point" is honestly the least important and weakest part of my 'case' on Lowell (I also don't really feel it's a case, just a few succinct damning points). What Lowell omitted and ignored are the two better reasons that I already gave in thread:

1) I don't believe town!Lowell would consider my early D1 play - at the time of posting 279 - to be genuinely "opportunistic". I made one vote on SBF.
2) the description of me "pocketing SS" makes no sense either, and reads more like Lowell is trying to frame my behavior than interpret it

[GuiltyLion]

Bro, of course I'm trying to frame your behavior. I'm trying to get you lynched and no one listens to me. And yes, your vote on SBF was opportunistic. S/he had done nothing whatsoever at that point. Attacking a

non-factor who can't fight back

is the definition of opportunistic. Or the definition of something. Whatever, it's bad.

Why

not

pressure someone who had done nothing whatsoever at that point? How do you suggest one should sort them instead?

And why do you assume she couldn't fight back, especially given that she clearly did fight back when she did start posting more content?

The reason I think 'opportunistic' doesn't make sense as a claim is because SBF was not a substantial wagon and was not in danger of being lynched. Call it 'lazy' or 'easy', sure, like I guess those would be relevant criticisms, but it's absolutely not 'opportunistic'.

[GuiltyLion]

we only have a day left and it looks like the frogger lynch is going nowhere. anyone wanna sell me elsewhere or join me? I'm not voting Lowell or bork today.

what are your thoughts on the bella wagon? Cause that one is likely to go through, and you've had her at null/town for the few times you've mentioned her, and the wagon consists of your top two townreads (bork/SBF), Lowell (another TR), and TTTT (who you had above sobolev/fro99er in your last reads list).

Is this a good wagon? Is it being pushed by scum?

It's strange to me that you'd make this post and not comment at all on the leading wagon.

[GuiltyLion]

also I generally agree with Fro99er's point about Eddie's SBF townread being unsubstantiated and I'm trying to parse whether I feel his aggressive deflection about being spammed with too many questions and phone posting was genuine town frustration. If bella is a mislynch I'd say Eddie is the most likely candidate for a scum off the wagon.

also I re-ISO'd SS and I feel better about her than I did in my last readslist, I still feel she's been sitting back a bit in this game but I don't think she's playing with an agenda

[GuiltyLion]

I'm a little skeeved that my wagon flipped so quickly to Bella but I also don't really have a problem with a Bella lynch. and I'd definitely hammer her once we wrap up this day. If she flips scum I'd say it's more likely that she got bussed given how quickly the wagon sprang up

[GuiltyLion]

if I were the Metaing sort I would point out that GL looks very different here than in that game

basically my plan on dealing with S_S is if she's town she should probably recognize quickly that this is not my scumgame, so if she scumreads me then she's confirmed scum. If she townreads me then she could be either alignment still, but at least it'll be one fewer person to push a mislynch on me

[GuiltyLion]

I/we don't have the time for me to break down everything that happened in the 7 or so pages that I was gone, I agree that SBF's frustration felt genuine but I'm not sure yet that I want to conclude that it's alignment-indicative frustration. However I think it's more likely scum is in {Bella, Lowell, Eddie}, interactions between all three are pretty bad

we only have a day left and it looks like the frogger lynch is going nowhere. anyone wanna sell me elsewhere or join me? I'm not voting Lowell or bork today.

what are your thoughts on the bella wagon? Cause that one is likely to go through, and you've had her at null/town for the few times you've mentioned her, and the wagon consists of your top two townreads (bork/SBF), Lowell (another TR), and TTTT (who you had above sobolev/fro99er in your last reads list).

Is this a good wagon? Is it being pushed by scum?

It's strange to me that you'd make this post and not comment at all on the leading wagon.

^Eddie did you ever respond to this? I don't remember seeing anything from you about it. I want you to talk about the Bella wagon

VOTE: Bella

[GuiltyLion]

873 - He just wants to go to Night. He doesn't care about this Town. town!GL would be serious about finding scum right now, he would know that Bellaphant doesn't give off serious enough scumvibes to just lock that hammer in without discussion, the reason he was willing to hammer in the first place doesn't even apply anymore, there's just nothing there.

I absolutely did want to go to night. I was on a ski trip last weekend so I didn't have much time to play and 30+ pages is plenty for a D1.

I don't know what you're talking about "lock that hammer in without discussion", there was like a day left until deadline and Bella seemed like the consensus lynch. I would've rather had Lowell but people were avoiding the wagon.

Also, self-meta and all, but scum!GL is much more aggressive about "finding scum" than town!GL. As town I mostly just try to steer clear of obviously bad lynches and lynch outside of a townpool. As scum I usually try a lot harder to make my votes/cases seem justified. It's definitely something for me to improve regarding my scumplay, but you should look at the Party Mafia Newbie game with Sobolev referenced/linked in this thread and see the difference. I don't always "powertown" and I can link plenty of examples where I don't have strong scumvibes from anyone on D1. In fact, even in the Undertale game you linked as an example of me being "powertown", my D2 play was very cautious and uncertain.

As for this post:

Here's what we're going to do guys. We're lynching me today. Tomorrow you quicklynch GL and win. No questions asked. That simple. This is the quickest solution and I don't feel like sitting around watching you guys get cold feet on an obvscum.

is frankly horrific play for someone who acts like they know so much about mafia. I'm town and if you're town then this is a guaranteed auto-loss.

Regardless of your alignment

, there's absolutely NO reason not to push for my lynch instead of trying to get yourself lynched first, and the AtE/WIFOM of voting yourself is useless and insanely anti-town. It's not even like you were already a top lynch candidate for today and you resigned yourself to your own wagon, which happens sometimes, but instead you're starting off the day with this shit? Grow up.

Also, if you're back to scumreading me, then I want to know what the "towntell" you claimed to see in 569 was and why you decided it no longer applies.

VOTE: Lowell

[GuiltyLion]

GL, if you're certain someone's scum in this setup then day 3 is the optimal time to lynch them so you don't need to find a partner. thst said, I have no intention to lynch sbf because I'm fairly sure she's town, but it makes sense if she's 100% confident you're scum. I'm not, so I want her to convince me, and regardless I'm lynching someome besides her because she's my strongest living town read.

a) I find acting like you have 100% certainty obnoxiously unbecoming in mafia, and generally more pro-scum than town
b) The "grow up" remark is more due to her "I'm going back to prodges" and "I don't feel like sitting around" bullshit. I guess mathematically it's better to lynch me D3 than D2 if you think I'm scum, but she should still be pushing to lynch

outside herself

in all universes today

[GuiltyLion]

The fact that I didn't die last night confirms GL as scum. If GL were Town the scumteam would have NKed me to incriminate GL for any easy mislynch.

Assuming that you're town, I don't think this follows at all. When I'm scum I almost always ignore and kill outside of TvTs, the constant arguing/tunneling is great for coasting during the day, and killing one of the townies is often taking away a distraction/potential mislynch. Plus bork was the obvious NK last night, he was never getting lynched this game.

Also, at the idea that I'm an easy mislynch. I think in all of my games here I can remember 2, maybe 3 times when I've been mislynched.

[GuiltyLion]

@SBF
from your POV...
GL is confscum
I'm POE'd scum based on scum!GL

...and you vote me?
bad bad bad

In this setup I don't think it's as bad as you're making it out to be - if you really do believe you have two scum candidates but you're more sure in one than the other, it could make sense to lynch the more confident read on D3, no?

[GuiltyLion]

Also, if you're back to scumreading me, then I want to know what the "towntell" you claimed to see in 569 was and why you decided it no longer applies.

also SBF if you are choosing to ignore this, then I'd like you to explicitly state that you are ignoring it.

[GuiltyLion]

because otherwise I'm gonna keep hounding you

[GuiltyLion]

Also, at the idea that I'm an easy mislynch. I think in all of my games here I can remember 2, maybe 3 times when I've been mislynched.

yah fun fact just crunched the numbers and it's only happened 3 times

Word Sneak 2 - got death tunneled by scum!RC
How to Get Away with Murder - shouldn't have happened since I was tracker, but got turbolynched within 1 RL day on D2
Grey Flag - was voting scum in LYLO, got hammered by scum off of an awful vote by RachMarie

point is, town!GL is not easy to mislynch and I don't plan on that happening in this game either, and if you were as familiar with my meta as you pretend to be then you should know this too.

[GuiltyLion]

I was hoping to see fro99er respond first before jumping in

[GuiltyLion]

if bella flips town I still think Lowell is solid town. if bella flips town that means frogger is again in my scumpool (since he's lock town with a bella scum flip in my eyes). Lowell voting frogger at a time everyone was ignoring me looks good for him, and he created the wagon even if it didn't go anywhere. he left only after it was clearly going nowhere to go onto another sr. Bella made sense as a vote for him based on his progression.

Eddie can you go into more depth as to why you are townreading Lowell? I don't really understand why this is indicative of town alignment, and most of your ISO is pretty null on Lowell except for a few points yesterday where you called him lock town. I only skimmed it just now but I'm not really grokking your read there

[GuiltyLion]

GL's "I've never been mislynched" is yet another scumclaim. The amount of times Town says this kind of thing? No. GL already knows everyone's alignment and his posts are soaked in it.

holy hell if you're town here I'm going to force feed the crow down your throat as soon as this game ends. The arrogance is so annoying. Why can't town ever say "I don't get mislynched" as town? You're just asserting shit and not backing it up, there's NOTHING scum-indicative about pointing out that I'm hard to lynch as town

also I never said "I've never been mislynched" I said I'm rarely mislynched because YOU said I'm an "easy mislynch". jesus

Lowell and Eddie are utterly obvious Town.

Yah why don't you explain this one cause IMO they're the top two candidates for scum.

[GuiltyLion]

Also, at the idea that I'm an easy mislynch. I think in all of my games here I can remember 2, maybe 3 times when I've been mislynched.

yah fun fact just crunched the numbers and it's only happened 3 times

Word Sneak 2 - got death tunneled by scum!RC
How to Get Away with Murder - shouldn't have happened since I was tracker, but got turbolynched within 1 RL day on D2
Grey Flag - was voting scum in LYLO, got hammered by scum off of an awful vote by RachMarie

point is, town!GL is not easy to mislynch and I don't plan on that happening in this game either, and if you were as familiar with my meta as you pretend to be then you should know this too.

Where did SBF say she was familiar w your meta?

I know she's an alt, but I mossed the familiar with your meta part.

Regarding GL, he is not playing quite the same game in this game as he was in that game, but there are similarities. He is not being powertown. He can be powertown. When he isn't powertown, he is usually scum. The righteous anger he's displayed in this game about being scumread is nearly identical to the way he reacted in that game. I felt townvibes from 423 but the way that he just left my slot alone after I moved my vote really pings me, as do 653 and 654. 653 because GL has just played a game with Space and would know how different her play is this game from her town meta, and 654 because I do not believe town!GL would have no strong scumreads today that he wanted to push and would be satisfied with letting a lynch on an inactive slot go through at this stage in the game.

What differences am I ignoring? Powertown is what it sounds like, powerful Town play, strong, no-nonsense, wrecking scum. Please don't selectively read my posts. I did not say that him not being powertown = him being scum. Here are a few samples for you: viewtopic.php?f=23&t=66850&user_select[]=26515 viewtopic.php?f=84&t=67900&user_select[]=26515 viewtopic.php?f=84&t=68625&user_select[]=26515

[GuiltyLion]

Sorry for the absence all. Will read what I missed and post thoughts.

I want to be on the record as thinking Lowell's last post is terrible though.

not really sure if I agree; enough people were digging their heels in against the GL wagon

Do you really think enough people dug in their heels between 527 and 543 for that big of a reversal?

Don't worry, GL is still scum. Listen, you can't all love on GL all game and then complain when I get sick of waiting for others to join the wagon. I've got people to kill, here, I'm not just sitting around on a dead wagon. GL will have his turn.

This kind of attitude is protown. he's not just on a vanity wagon like some hopping creatures, he's hunting scum. the bella vote there was fine and he doesn't just blindly sheep the wagon later on, he tries to build a wagon on who I'd openly expressed as my biggest scumread (ftogger). I consider that townie behaviour because there was no reason to wagon frogger, I was being ignored by just about every other townie besides bork with his "I think frogger is town please don't ask me why". 584 had a good tone and feels genuine too.

that said, I want to see what Lowell does when he catches up to d2 and comes back.

like seriously SBF I want you to take a HARD step back, pretend for a second that I'm conf-town, and then break down for me exactly why this doesn't look exactly like the kind of fake-read that scum gives

[GuiltyLion]

okay on Fro99er vs. TTTT,

I think this is a TvT. TTTT makes a decent point about Fro99er making a big deal out of his experience with Bella and then not going anywhere with it but I think Fro99er's explanation is valid, Bella really didn't give anyone to work with because she kinda sat back and then didn't play the second half of the game. Meanwhile, @Fro99er, I don't really see any scum motivation in TTTT pushing you here, given the wagon and the flip, assuming that TTTT is town, it makes sense to pressure you on your ambivalence about the lynch given you didn't really hop on or show any conviction in a read one way or the other.

anyway I'm like fully on board with Fro99er's thing about regardless of Lowell's alignment, Eddie is scum here. the townread on Lowell is fake fake fake
VOTE: Eddie Cane

[GuiltyLion]

this annoyed me. but anyways, I don't like his bella push. he tunneled bella, for like, a long time, and other than that his only vote me for what he said in 376 was reaction gauging.

also everyone needs to look at this and ask themselves if TTTT's push on bella was such a big problem for Eddie then why did he not comment on it whatsoever during D1 while it was happening? Like I literally had to poke him multiple times to give his thoughts on the Bella wagon as it was coalescing during the end of D1.

[GuiltyLion]

I don't think bella is a horrible wagon, I just don't scumread her. I explained why earlier lightly - none of her posts have stuck out as scummy to me. I think I missed that question specifically, after going back to the page I see there was a lot of questions directed at me so I probably forgot it. Lemme go back to bella iso d quote some content that brought a light tr.

that said, I remembered there being a lot more there. I'm not really opposed to a bella lynch rn, there's extemely minimal content overall. she flew psst me by all of her posts being ok at worst, but honestly it's a pretty bare iso. I wish she was posting for the past week - her last line was telling people to ask questions never even commented on froggers comments at/about her which saddens me

like these are Eddie's comments yesterday about a bella lynch, but now he's taking up issue with TTTT's push which reads to me like huge posturing to scumread a townie that spearheaded a mislynch.

[GuiltyLion]

honestly sheep me on this guys, as soon as I set my lens to "what if Eddie his scum" his posts start to

ooze

scummy phrasing and mindset. He's always hedging a little bit on every claim he makes. You can even see it in the last sentence of 1004

[GuiltyLion]

I consider that townie behaviour because there was no reason to wagon frogger,

I was being ignored by just about every other townie

besides bork with his "I think frogger is town please don't ask me why".

also.

in my newbier days I would consider this a scumslip revealing knowledge of a town!Lowell, but I've been burned on that once or twice so I'm just gonna say it reads to me like 70% of a scumslip. Not completely damning but if you squint it looks indicative. would town!Eddie be this subconsciously certain that Lowell is town to the point where he refers to being ignored by "every

other

townie"? There's an implicit assumption here that Lowell is town that I'm not sure would come out written this way if Eddie had no knowledge of alignments ahead of time.

[GuiltyLion]

And in all the games I've played with Frog I've gotten a pretty good read on him. If he's scum this game he's got me fooled.

How do you reconcile this with Frogger being in 3/4 of your possible scumteams?

also I just gotta say this is a great question and it's pretty telling that SBF ignored it

I'm here with my possible scumteams, ranked most to least likely

{Eddie, SBF}
{Eddie, Lowell}
{SBF, Lowell}
{Eddie, SS}

[GuiltyLion]

@GL - I'd like some thoughts about Frogger from you. Explain the apparent TR.

so his ISO is far too big for me to want to break down the individual posts that really ring town right now (though I can try to do that this weekend), but the big thrust of it is when I read his back and forth with Eddie in D1 and most of his other conversations it all just completely makes sense as logical town mindset/progression and there's absolutely nothing that smells of disingenuousness. Like early on I thought his posts about bella were weird, but everything he said about her being his best friend on site and wanting to sort her early on is consistent and feels true to what he had posted, and then when I assume scum!Eddie and go back to read all his points about Eddie/SBF where he's speculating about them being a scumteam and arguing with Eddie it vibes completely naturally in a town way.

His scumread on Lowell also seems genuine in the sense of him not liking aspects of Lowell's posts, but simultaneously not trying to dress up a fabricated case to push for the lynch, which I think is a difficult balance for scum to hit. And another minor towntell is he pointed out several (correct IMO) towntells from TTTT on D1 but then reversed his prior read to vote him today _without_ bothering to elaborate on his reversal, which to me is more indicative of town genuinely shaping their reads rather than scum keeping track of what reads they're projecting and trying to artificially explain their votes/reads.

Basically when I go back and re-ISO everything he's said I just get the feeling that he's absolutely right about everything that he's pointed out and nothing he's done has been from a scum agenda where he's trying to break up townblocs and secure mislynches. And he's easily come off as more town in every spar he's had with Eddie, initially I was holding onto an Eddie townread but when I let that go and imagine a scum!Eddie, it only serves to make Fro99er's posting look even more town.

idk if that's sufficient for you, I can try to explain more later when I'm not inebriated and about to go to sleep, but I strongly encourage you to ISO Fro99er and see if you can see what I'm getting at.

[GuiltyLion]

not even on a game level, that's just a crock of shit. I can't actually believe someone believes this.

not even on a game level? What does that mean?

also S_S do you have a response to my post about Fro99er?

[GuiltyLion]

also so now SBF and Eddie have eachother both as "utterly" or "painfully" "obvious" town. I don't really think either of those reads is believable. I'm not convinced it's a S-S interaction since one of them as scum could be doing it for WIFOM on a townie (Eddie in particular looks more guilty of this than SBF), but it's definitely weird.

[GuiltyLion]

Frownie face at the buddying. Now stop feeling sorry for yourself and get your butt back in the game!

And this is what defending looks like: go read 988. That's called Town synergy, and an emotionally positive response at seeing it. Hard to fake. My feelings about Eddie's play this game tells me that he is not scum faking. Eddie is Town.

Posting "omg the synergy" is hard to fake? Seriously? It looks a lot to me like you're getting suckered by Eddie here. I tried to get you to consider the fact that I'm town and look at how fake his TR on Lowell is, and you just brush it off with "bad != scum". I really think you're coasting/conf-biasing on your tunnel on me and not looking at Eddie with fresh eyes.

[GuiltyLion]

@TTTT/@Lowell/@Sobolev - I'm serious can you please look at Eddie in ISO because I am more and more convinced he is scum

sbf has done nothing and it's 12 pages in. is that normal for her? we've never played before.

tttt is actually sketching me out now. his iso is pretty barren, he asks me a question, throw out some naked reads, votes me for undisclosed reasons. more of a null than town.

Lowell is iffy too. I feel like he's definitely experienced enough to appear townie and make fake reasoning if he wants, so I don't scumread him for seemingly baseless things. I don't get the bella vote though. null.

frogger is scummy, his push on me is fucking terrible. good justification such as 104 and 276. scum lean.

bork is obvtown. I justified it a bit much earlier but now I think everyone is townreading him so no point writing an essay.

holding back gl Sobolev and Bella for now.

this is the first reads post he gives, it's basically a shotgun of shade everywhere but with the easy "bork is obvtown" read. Like this is exactly the kind of vague readslist scum like to post that doesn't really do anything but looks busy and looks like you're doing your homework.

this is about where I'm at rn, towniest top scummiest bottom

bork

sbf (came back from being idle with a vengeance)

bella

Lowell

GuiltyLion
tttt

frogger
sobolev


nobody has stuck out as super scummy to me which is strange. I'm locking bork as town so if he's scum he should keep me around for an easy lylo win. I'm going to go back and review isos tomorrow when I have time. particularly, I want to look at Lowell (who everyone is scum reading but I'm not buying), and frogger/bella interactions. I'll probably also cross check some bella stuff. I do not like how frequently frogger speaks to bella, especially since I regard her as fairly townie. I definitely have to analyze tomorrow when I'm less tired, because there's nobody I scum read enough to want to vote and that is

really

weird for me.

Here "nobody has stuck out as super scummy" despite him calling fro99er scummy in the prior reads post. Hesitation everywhere and "future work" that he's going to do.

firstly; I don't like your posting activity straight up. you come, spam some posts, disappear for a while. I get being busy irl isn't scum indicative but your post timing is just extremely inconsistent and it bothers me. just a gut level thing, but it's there and bothering me.

your interactions with bella are a HUGE amount of your posting and don't really amount to much. a seemingly strong scum read (140 for example) turns into a soft town read? dunno, it's definitely conceivable your read could change but your bella interactions are started by you for the most part and just so much of your posting. almost looks like it was intended to warm up to her and buddy her later on as seen in the beginning of 276 (really awkward wording) and 388.

that's a lot of wifom. but on the topic of wifom, I still think your wifom based argument on me was trash - my "callout" of you for your self wifom. we've gone over that and you had examples but I didn't exactly whip out a pitchfork and torch over it so I still don't like it.

your posting just really bothers me. 391 bothers me, 393 is reaching, 395 is misrepresenting (I did not say joking = scum... and joking is scummy if it takes away from the conversation away and brings the thread on an unhelpful tangent but that's off topic, and 405 just kinda seems off to me, as if it's intention was town cred, 406 does not bode well with me either and that tone seems like a form of ate in an indirect way (I can explain that if it doesn't make sense in that wording), and of course, 438.

There's no super strong solve here. frogger has ~decently~ constructive posts overall. however, noticing timestamps, it is weaker, and it all feels off to me. I've already said I have no super strong scum read, so I guess you're now my strongest as you look worse than Sobolev to me after reviewing.

VOTE: frogger

Nothing in this case is indicative and Eddie knows it.

here's where I'm at

I don't intend to lynch sbf

I probably won't lynch Lowell either though this is dependant on his d2 catchup

frogger was my lock scum read but I've liked his posts do far d2 other than the one directed at me and more importantly I can appreciate bork's 882/883 and respect frogger being his strongest town read. that same line of logic gave me a little doubt of Lowell but not enough to outweigh my tr.

thst leaves scum in Sobolev, gl, tttt, frogger. still need to sort that more closely. gonna look at interactions between them when I have time and see if any obvious partners or impossible pairs pop out at me a bit later, that's something I've used in micros before when I have a smaller lynch pool (finding partners is different from finding a team of 3+). I doubt it'll turn up anything good but you never know.

And here are the D2 reads? Still putting Sobolev in a null pile, still no conviction in his fro99er scumread. Also remember that Eddie didn't comment or engage with the Bella wagon substantively at all yesterday. Also in many many posts he's hedging or jumping in on theory talk, when you read the ISO in total you can see how he's avoiding battles. He's coasting, his read progression doesn't seem organic or transparent. He's scum.

[GuiltyLion]

Eddie is one of those players I early townread and then haven't really thought about. Which is probably bad.

So him being dead might be a nice reset for me. And if he's scum I can officially retire as champion.

Don't worry, I still think you're Town. Fro99er is looking more and more suspicious, though. Putting Eddie to L-1 there is kinda ugly. Scum is in {4T, Fro99er, GL, Space}. Flipping Space today will give us by far the most to work with in PoE regardless of flip. If it's a scumflip, GL is very unlikely to be scum. Fro99er is the most likely scumpartner to Space. 4T could almost be partner with anyone at this point, which makes him less likely to be scum than the other 3. (Basic rule of PoE, when there's an excess of possible partners the slot is unlikely to have any partner at all.) The strength of this analysis is weak, though, in a micro and on only Day 2 without a scumflip.

I like both of these posts a lot, I don't agree with SBF about Fro99er but I think the points about TTTT and my being town on a SS scumflip are both ringing town

I'm here
definitely town - {Fro99er, SBF}
eddie's partner is here - {Lowell, TTTT, SS}
scum - {Eddie}

[GuiltyLion]

He's been taking strong stances. Today he's been a bit more passive but it feels genuine.

which stances did you find to be strong, and why do they make him town?

This WK-ey townread almost makes me want to unvote Eddie for the time being but I don't think SS can change her mind and hammer him now, and I'd like Eddie to give his thoughts on SS and this post.

[GuiltyLion]

@Lowell - since you liked SBF's description of me so much please explain how you feel I've been shopping for lynches.

I'm gonna chew on this one a little more but as my last thought of today, I don't intuitively understand why a town!SS, who is (presumably) scumreading Lowell, would feel the need to ask him this question. It reads more like it's meant to create fodder to use against him and his vote, rather than show us why she thinks he's scum or help her continue to sort him.

like if SS really thought Lowell was scum, I don't think she would ask this question here, I think she'd just attack the fact that he's openly sheeping and make an appeal to her townreads as to why it was scum behavior. And if she wasn't sure about his alignment, I feel like she'd be a little bit more direct instead of going with the more passive snarky approach of "please explain".

[GuiltyLion]

He's been taking strong stances. Today he's been a bit more passive but it feels genuine.

which stances did you find to be strong, and why do they make him town?

This WK-ey townread almost makes me want to unvote Eddie for the time being but I don't think SS can change her mind and hammer him now, and I'd like Eddie to give his thoughts on SS and this post.

what am I replying to?

SS. What's your read on her, and why? What do you think of her townread on you?

[GuiltyLion]

just because you're more experienced than me and know all the right buzzwords doesn't mean you won't flip red <3

also, just how experienced are you? Because earlier in this game you were sounding very experienced, I get the sense that you've played on something like Epic Mafia

[GuiltyLion]

@GL
can you give a concise TR explanation on Fro99er?

was 1016 not concise enough? Snark aside I am actually curious why you asked me this when I just explained it a few days ago?

I'll snip it down to the most relevant bits:

@GL - I'd like some thoughts about Frogger from you. Explain the apparent TR.

[...] the big thrust of it is when I read his back and forth with Eddie in D1 and most of his other conversations it all just completely makes sense as logical town mindset/progression and there's absolutely nothing that smells of disingenuousness [...]

His scumread on Lowell also seems genuine in the sense of him not liking aspects of Lowell's posts, but simultaneously not trying to dress up a fabricated case to push for the lynch, which I think is a difficult balance for scum to hit. And another minor towntell is he pointed out several (correct IMO) towntells from TTTT on D1 but then reversed his prior read to vote him today _without_ bothering to elaborate on his reversal, which to me is more indicative of town genuinely shaping their reads rather than scum keeping track of what reads they're projecting and trying to artificially explain their votes/reads.

Basically when I go back and re-ISO everything he's said I just get the feeling that he's absolutely right about everything that he's pointed out and nothing he's done has been from a scum agenda where he's trying to break up townblocs and secure mislynches. [...]

I strongly encourage you to ISO Fro99er and see if you can see what I'm getting at.

[GuiltyLion]

@Eddie

SS. What's your read on her, and why? What do you think of her townread on you?

[GuiltyLion]

like when I read your ISO you said you thought she was null for most of D1 and then said you wanted to lynch her or Fro99er. Why aren't you on her wagon rn?

[GuiltyLion]

@Eddie

SS. What's your read on her, and why? What do you think of her townread on you?

like when I read your ISO you said you thought she was null for most of D1 and then said you wanted to lynch her or Fro99er. Why aren't you on her wagon rn?

things change

This is weak. There's no reason for you to be cagey here.

@TTTT - not impressed at all with your question there

[GuiltyLion]

VC 2.7

Eddie Cane

(3): GuiltyLion 1008, TTTT 1063, Fro99er 1075

Sobolev Space

(2): SweetBlueFlowers 1061, Lowell 1088

Fro99er

(1): Eddie Cane 1065

Lowell

(1): Sobolev Space 928

Not Voting

(0): Nobody!!!

With 7 alive, it takes 4 votes to lynch.

Day two ends March 4th at 1pm EST, or in (expired on 2017-03-20 14:00:00)

Mod Notes:
Eddie Cane is V/LA until Saturday May 25th

I'm generally trying to figure out why we have two wagons but neither of the wagonees are voting their CW. It makes me think that at least one of them is definitely scum, but I'm having a hard time thinking that it would point to a {SS, Eddie} team.

it'd help me a lot if you could start being more town, TTTT. and SS your V/LA is up so if you're town you need to start putting in D2 work. I don't think I have a strong sense of anything from you other than "I want to flip Lowell and I'm not voting Eddie unless it's deadline". Even your reasons for townreading Eddie seem to be just because you found some nitpicks with things that I said about him.

[GuiltyLion]

I've given my reasons for townreading Eddie. Since we're close to deadline and it looks like one of our wagons is going through I'd honestly prefer it to be mine since I think there are more scum on Eddie's wagon and I'm more likely to be mislynched in lylo.

I don't feel like I believe that your townread in Eddie is so strong that you'd rather yourself get lynched than him. And you think you could see a GL/TTTT scumteam yet neither of us are currently voting you, but you still think you're more likely to be mislynched in LYLO? If Lowell/SBF are town getting suckered, why aren't you really talking to them? and you came out earlier this game with scumreads on both of them, did your read on Lowell flip? When did the SBF case you posted in 781 stop holding up?

[GuiltyLion]

in fact I really don't see anything in your ISO that would indicate a change of mind on SBF, yet suddenly "more scum are on Eddie's wagon"?

[GuiltyLion]

I don't think either of you advocating for your own lynch is pro-town whatsoever, and it's baffling to me that neither of you seem to want to flip the other. Like even if you're town and your CW is your strongest townread in the game, fucking flip them first in case you're wrong and then if they do wind up town you can argue with the people who are pushing you in LYLO. Both of you refusing to lynch each other and advocating for your own lynch makes no sense and I feel the mechanics of lynch-scum-on-D3-is-town-autowin is coming into play here in some way.

[GuiltyLion]

can you answer my question about why your read on SBF has apparently flipped dramatically

and like if you think I'm scum shouldn't it be pretty easy to get SBF to vote me over you in LYLO

[GuiltyLion]

like are you willing to say your entire thought process in 781 was all bullshit?

[GuiltyLion]

Take your pick. I'll vote any of the four except Eddie. Space looks Town from this page. GL does not. Whichever team it is, PoE has the scumteam trapped right now. If either 4T or GL flip green, the team is {Eddie, Space}. If either Eddie or Space flip green, the team is {4T, GL}.

I'm actually pretty much in agreement with this unless it's a 4T-SS team in which case we lose on an Eddie green flip.

why move your vote to a vanity TTTT wagon though, I was just warming up to a Space lynch instead of Eddie today

and what you call "flailing" I call "game-solving". I'm the only one driving any content in this game for the past few days.

[GuiltyLion]

like realistically it makes a lot more sense to just vote me if you're gonna move off SS, since SS has also conveniently moved me to her "primary scumread"

[GuiltyLion]

slight amendment to my 1150 I think Fro99er is doing game-solving work as well in the past few pages. I'd sheep him anywhere today

[GuiltyLion]

Read my post. Space is towning it up. You are not. 4T is not. You and 4T are very likely the scumteam. If I am wrong about you and 4T, then I want to lynch the utterly useless speck of a slot that is 4T, not you.

You have not been driving ANY content.

The entire reason you're looking at Eddie and Space as a possible scumteam is because I drove an Eddie wagon and then pushed into why Eddie and SS weren't voting for eachother. Go back and read D2 please. SS was on V/LA but has still been completely limited in engagement even outside of that.

[GuiltyLion]

like let's not forget that this was SS just one week ago:

I'm liking GL's last few posts a lot.

Lowell and Eddie are utterly obvious Town.

Yah why don't you explain this one cause IMO they're the top two candidates for scum.

I want to hear an answer to this question. Lowell, SBF and Eddie are all townreading each other but I feel they haven't given great reasons.

then I push on Eddie and I become her top scumread

[GuiltyLion]

oh and SBF remember how you said you were tired of SS "shopping for lynches"? Who was it that caused her to write that post that set you off?

@GL

- I'll review Eddie's ISO after my econ final on Tuesday. I had a prior TR on him and liked his interactions with the Bella wagon but I can see what you're saying with the above quotes to an extent.

I am sorting and solving this game, SS is not.

[GuiltyLion]

I was talking about his engagement with the Bella wagon. I think he was a reasonable distance away from it, which shows him not being opportunistic and realizing that Bella can't defend herself, while also not purposely avoiding it.

it looked a hell of a lot to me like Eddie was purposefully avoiding it, so I'm gonna need you to elaborate on why your understanding of reality is so different from mine

like I had to ask him multiple times why he wasn't talking about it, and he made this post as well while Bella was the leading wagon:

we only have a day left and it looks like the frogger lynch is going nowhere. anyone wanna sell me elsewhere or join me? I'm not voting Lowell or bork today.

without having talked at ALL about Bella beforehand.

[GuiltyLion]

why exact ly would anything change when bella's last post was 408?

It's not that I would expect your read on bella to change, I would expect you to be commenting about the wagon on her and the people pushing it. If you were fine with the lynch you didn't really seem eager to jump on board, and if you were against the lynch you didn't fight it at all. You basically just existed while the lynch was happening. And then in D2 you start pushing on TTTT for "tunneling Bella", but you didn't care at all about his tunnel on D1.

[GuiltyLion]

Nah that hammer basically makes me conf!town actually. scum!me would never have hammered my mutual locktown.

If Town isn't awful they get the lynch right tomorrow. But they have been awful all game so who the fuck knows.

Frog might die, yeah.

[SBF voice] 1178 and 1181 are a scumclaim as far as I'm concerned

[GuiltyLion]

Are you fucking kidding me?

also my hot take here is that this indignation actually feels town

it might be Lowell/SBF

[GuiltyLion]

also here's a post from Lowell in another game we played together

In post 54, he uses "them" instead of "us" describing town. I normally consider these things a wash (it's just about narrative voice when writing) but given that he did this several times in one post, it looks a little off.

would like to see what he thinks of 1181

[GuiltyLion]

hey, good game all! Aristophanes, thanks for modding, this was a fun set up and well run! and it was a great playerlist, I enjoyed playing with all of you Well deserved win by Eddie/Fro99er, Fro99er had pretty much everyone townreading him the whole game.

[GuiltyLion]

Fro99er I definitely got completely suckered by your distancing with Eddie on d1. Big lesson of this game for me is to remember that just because someone comes out looking good when arguing with scum, doesn't necessarily mean that they are not scum as well