Team Mafia 2018: White Flag — Day Six

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Post Post #3625 (ISO) » Tue Mar 06, 2018 2:47 pm

Post by Gamma Emerald »

In post 3624, Shadoweh wrote:
Gamma Emerald wrote:Can anyone tell me they're scumreading Ran for something other than him defending CES?
There's a bit of difference between defending someone and trying to make someone preemptively sound like the incoming scum flip's partner, which is what I interpretted a lot of his comments towards Lycanfire as being. Especially since Lycan is 99% not a member of the scum team now. Regardless of that I think his opening post today sounded like pleading. I've been in the desperately pleading not to get lynched position though but somehow I doubt I'm going to be convinced by this train of thought. :V
Which posts about Lycan?
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Post Post #3626 (ISO) » Tue Mar 06, 2018 2:48 pm

Post by Ranmaru »

Shadoweh, I want you to do actual analysis.
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Post Post #3627 (ISO) » Tue Mar 06, 2018 2:49 pm

Post by LicketyQuickety »

In post 3623, Ranmaru wrote:
In post 3608, Davsto wrote:But his behaviour as a whole yesterday felt very,, off compared to the first two days. I haven't rechecked in detail but my instincts feel like he was riding being heavily townread day one and two and got a little carried away maybe? Again that's mostly me just thinking off the top of my head I haven't looked properly
Can you go more into this? How was I riding being heavily town read?
You were... you were totally being like everyones top 3 for a while.
I was anything worse than you! Anything worse than you was I!

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Post Post #3628 (ISO) » Tue Mar 06, 2018 2:50 pm

Post by Ranmaru »

I mean, he makes it seem like I was just coasting on everyone's town reads. That's why I'm asking how I did that.
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Post Post #3629 (ISO) » Tue Mar 06, 2018 3:08 pm

Post by Shadoweh »

In post 3626, Ranmaru wrote:Shadoweh, I want you to do actual analysis.
I am not going to be able to go back and properly analyze what you said to other people because I wasn't there and it doesn't carry the same emotional impact. (there's also 141 pages and I don't have enough wine.) I want you to post actual information now instead of talking about how you will so I can judge it. I'm still willing to give you the benefit of the doubt even if you're going to make a backwards case on my former self.

Gamma, I started around the reads list on 2347 where his part on Lycan is basically he's scum with CES. Lycan responded with a pretty compelling post about getting on CES in 2359, and Ran's response was not CES, read marquis, nevermind you're not scum with CES, it's just Marquis. Actually he posted a readslist that it's just Marquis/Dan/NSG after that so this is just the same thing as yesterday with subbing CES for the dead person? He could have a contest with LQ to see which is crazier. :lol: I don't think this is slam dunk but it seemed like a good place to start.
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Post Post #3630 (ISO) » Tue Mar 06, 2018 3:09 pm

Post by Ranmaru »

Alright, I'll be doing that.
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Post Post #3631 (ISO) » Tue Mar 06, 2018 4:46 pm

Post by Ranmaru »

Analysis
:

CES's #122. This doesn't make sense for him to mention that without actually pushing Marquis, since he was voting Llamarble at the time. CES votes Marquis when the wagon slows down, here: #349. Note that in his #870, he stated that he didn't want to continue adding pressure to Marquis. So, this shows that CES was pushing Marquis weakly, in an attempt to seem like he's bussing. Which just made me realize, that it may be a red herring as well. My one concern was that Marquis never talked to me when I explained my mindset to him. Yet, note that Marquis's entrance, was weak. I would not think scum CES would plan to have his partner weaken his own position so that CES could awkwardly push him. It makes more sense that he'd push town weakly, so that any partners he has, are safe from connections. (Which would make Marquis more likely be to be a buddy in town's eyes) An optimal play to me, would be to have all scum mates focus on Marquis, while one scum feigns scum connections to that slot. Now, I have already posted Meta showing that Marquis is a slot that is lynched/mislynched quite a lot for his inactivity. He didn't really reconsider due to that, which to me means that he was intending on pushing through it meekly as he could. If he wanted to turn away from it, he could use that as a solid reason to re-evaluate. (Which could be considered townie looking) Yet he stuck to it.

Now, if Marquis were scum, I'd consider that LQ would be scum with them as well. Yet I find LQ's #3612 townie. Action Dan's #3576 seemed also to come from a town mindset. Right now the person who seems to be coming from a scum mindset the most, is Davsto. Again, let's remember that his slot seems consistent. Both WGEURTS and Davsto seemed to be consistently flat / under the radar and I couldn't really get a bead on him. His #3608 mentions he feels I was trying to ride on everyone's town reads when I have been doing quite a lot that day. When, that actually applies to his own slot. I was active, present, and constantly pushing. He, on the other hand, simply voted CES because CES gave him a conclusion before telling him to read Marquis's ISO, which Davsto never
considered
. He never considered here: #2720. I was a high town read of his but he was arguing against CES's argument that Marquis may have been strong scum trying to vote against the grain. Davsto never considered it was a weird vote? I agreed because it seemed like a vote that he can throw away since he not doing anything to progress the game, therefore being a trash slot. Davsto's CES vote is second on his wagon. #2489.

Dunnstral's #2594 shows CES as null. Yet, when I pushed for CES's wagon, here is what he said: #2685 Basically, he doesn't know what to think of CES, even though I linked a case. Yet, he was willing to counter wagon Shea, who he also had a null read on. That's my biggest issue with Dunn. Second, Dunn was lurking heavily when CES was being wagoned, only caring about Marquis's interaction with him. My theory is that the team of [Dunnstral, WGEURTZ, CES] would push for Marquis. At least, in the beginning. #29 That is Dunn's vote. This is what felt off to Gamma, in very early game, that Shea attacked him for. #809 is also an interesting post, how Shea shows that Dunn's tone was different towards Postie rather then CES. Now, on to WGEURTZ vote: #77. So, if the whole team was on him early game, and CES pushes it weakly, and doesn't make it, and dies, they wouldn't be connected to him. People would not expect three votes on one wagon. Note again, Davsto's vote on CES. I ask the town: Was his vote so valid, that he'd stick to it all day one, not even reconsider the Marquis read? Remember, this is what was happening with Davsto:

Spoiler: Davsto
In post 1887, Davsto wrote:I hate to delay the GE ISO again but a crisis with one of my friends occurred and I'm a little drained and it's semi-late and I don't really want to rush it

To be honest his ISO is massive, about 200 posts, so I'll probably do it over the game night because I don't want to be rushing it because of arbitrary deadlines I set. I'll see if I can get it done beforehand (I'd like to) but over the game night is my final aim to have it done (especially since I'm busy tomorrow night and wednesday).
In post 1773, Davsto wrote:
In post 1770, Gamma Emerald wrote:Davsto says my interactions with TSQ have been off? I wanna hear this
I don't mean off as in ingenuine if that's what you think I mean

I mean like I remember you coming out quite badly with your confrontations with tsq in terms of your points coming out looking rather poor ygm

But recently you've rubbed me much less wrongly so that is why I'm planning on ISOing you soon
In post 1862, Davsto wrote:I'll do my ISO of gamma tomorrow but I'll try and get a decent post of some sort out in under an hour
In post 2278, Davsto wrote:I'm not sure if I want to fully ISO Gamma anymore because it's like 250 posts and I've read them all before so I just start skimming so I leave it until later

So I'm basically putting off playing the game at all because I know when I come back I "should" do the Emerald ISO but I can't get myself to do it so I go "oh well probably shouldn't bother posting then"
In post 2280, Cogito Ergo Sum wrote:
In post 2278, Davsto wrote:I'm not sure if I want to fully ISO Gamma anymore because it's like 250 posts and I've read them all before so I just start skimming so I leave it until later

So I'm basically putting off playing the game at all because I know when I come back I "should" do the Emerald ISO but I can't get myself to do it so I go "oh well probably shouldn't bother posting then"
That's fine. Here's something easy and productive you can do instead - ISO Marquis keeping in mind that all he's done since his disastrous start is occasionally pop in, post something that's meant to sound vaguely pro-town and peaced out again. (I stole this wording from a previous post because I am also lazy.
In post 2476, Davsto wrote:
In post 2280, Cogito Ergo Sum wrote:
In post 2278, Davsto wrote:I'm not sure if I want to fully ISO Gamma anymore because it's like 250 posts and I've read them all before so I just start skimming so I leave it until later

So I'm basically putting off playing the game at all because I know when I come back I "should" do the Emerald ISO but I can't get myself to do it so I go "oh well probably shouldn't bother posting then"
That's fine. Here's something easy and productive you can do instead - ISO Marquis keeping in mind that all he's done since his disastrous start is occasionally pop in, post something that's meant to sound vaguely pro-town and peaced out again. (I stole this wording from a previous post because I am also lazy.
Oh, it was CES, not Ran. I don't like this post as it feels like it's trying to plant an idea of what I should get in the ISO rather than actually wanting me to come to my own conclusion.
In post 2489, Davsto wrote:My initial reaction is that Shea has started to turn my head a bit more unpleasantly so maybe he could be scum but one player I've not particularly liked is CES so I think I'll vote there for now, subject to change when I ISO Marquis as requested.

VOTE: CES

As for how my reads have changed that I can think of:
LQ, GE, NSG become a bit more towny
CES becomes a fair amount more scummy
TSQ, Lycan, Dunn a bit more scummy



This was after my request for him to elaborate on his full reads list. #1765 He had Gamma as scum, which I was wondering about. So, he said he'd ISO him more to get a better idea. This is what happened, and then CES came and tried to help him out. "Here, ISO Marquis blah blah blah." It seemed like a helpful guide in another direction. His reaction was not expected from me. My thoughts is, that he was trying to push towards Gamma's direction, but he couldn't actually fake a reason to push on Gamma, and Gamma had posted so much that it was impossible for Davsto to get anything out of it. Instead of re-evaluating, it takes him that many times to 'keep the push' up. (Which he was stalling with) So his buddy helped him to turn on him to have a direction for the day instead of not being able to turn up with anything. #3398 rubs me off because it shows he's content with the lynch, but his confidence doesn't match:

Spoiler: Davsto
In post 2536, Davsto wrote:It's hard to pin down exactly why but since I started paying a bit more attention to him and reading closer he's not really just blending in with everything and I'm noticing something just, idk, off in his posts. His Marquis obsession is a bit silly and he seems to actively discredit any theory that doesn't include Marquis-scum. He could just be confbiasing but it seems a bit beyond even that.


Conclusion: Dunnstral pushes Marquis all game, lurks when CES is up for lynch, and avoids him over Shea when he null-reads both. Davsto, has a hard time ISOing and justifying his scumread on Gamma, and so CES helps him vote his way in a forced manner. Marquis is not a bus, but a red herring. Otherwise, if it was a planned bus, CES would have pushed for it harder, instead of putting it on the back burner for other lynches to precede it. [Dunnstral, Davsto, CES]
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Post Post #3632 (ISO) » Tue Mar 06, 2018 4:47 pm

Post by Ranmaru »

Vote: Dunn
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Post Post #3633 (ISO) » Wed Mar 07, 2018 8:38 am

Post by Dunnstral »

Again, I had many opportunities to hammer what CES was pushing though, you're not looking at the full picture
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Post Post #3634 (ISO) » Wed Mar 07, 2018 8:52 am

Post by Gamma Emerald »

In post 3633, Dunnstral wrote:Again, I had many opportunities to hammer what CES was pushing though, you're not looking at the full picture
Point them out, I want to look at all of them.
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Post Post #3635 (ISO) » Wed Mar 07, 2018 9:19 am

Post by Thestatusquo »

In post 3607, Gamma Emerald wrote:Can anyone tell me they're scumreading Ran for something other than him defending CES?
I'm reading ranmaru as scum for a couple of broad reasons:

1) His reads don't seem to bear any relationship to who is actually scum. I'm pretty sure every single person he has voted has flipped town, and every single wagon he has not been on has been on scum. We have a bit of a small sample going on here, but consistently when his actions have been put the test (i.e. who he's been voting at the end of the day.) its been wrong every time.

2) This is important because Ranmaru votes. A lot. For different people. A lot. With the same degree of expressed certainty.
He seems to not care about who is lynched too much, except if its on CES, who he also declared scum earlier in the day but then did everything in his power to stop.

Look at the juxtaposition between this post:
In post 2347, Ranmaru wrote:
====
Reads
====


----
Town

----

Quick: I again, felt his opening play seemed illogical, but as I pushed into his illogical web, I realize that it seems to have no scum motive there. As I pushed him he kept engaging, which makes me feel he really was trying to understand my issues. I started liking his play since him explaining himself to me, then giving his reads list, then on Day 3, after his Gamma/Ran push, explained his issue with me. I also do believe he is town trying to push things even though he doesn't feel he has the right evidence. I think he undervalues his own skill, and think he has made good observations but then re-treads those due to Occamz razor. (I feel like that helps sometimes and it hurts sometimes especially when scum are doing things you don't expect precisely to fool those who use it)

Gamma: My read on Gamma remains the same. As I have explained in my #2217, this seems much different then his scum game or his third party game. His 'forced' reactions are null, he does it as both alignments. I like his questioning in his #2283, and I like his reconsideration of Quick after Quick rightfully explains himself. In Penguin Mafia Redux, he wasn't actually scumhunting as much. Here he has been doing plenty of that. I would also like those pushing for Gamma (CES) to look into my #2217 and tell me their thoughts.

NSG: Her #441 seems like a pro-town observation, not something I'd think Scum would point out. Now, if I compare NSG to Lycanfire, she's been pretty consistent with her push on CES. She's asked Llama his thoughts on CES. I think overall she was posting well. Now, given her progression on Dunn, I can see why she was fine with voting him as opposed to Eddie. Eddie flipping town makes me feel much better about her slot in general. Again, I do like that she repeats her question to CES in her #550. Looking back, her #584 seems fine since T-chill seemed like likely scum for avoiding the game. She follows up on her questioning to Dunn in her #489. After those posts, is when she starts to drop in activity and engagement. She says it's mostly due to her feeling she is doing bad, which I don't see at all. I can see this as more likely to be town as, she was posting well, and I think if she were scum, she'd continue to post to keep up the charade. She also mentions it's due to post rate going faster, and I know I myself, am a cause of that, even though this game I'm trying to restrict myself. (As opposed to Penguin Mafia Redux, my previous game here, I was top poster above Mulch, Gamma, and Transcend) So it makes sense. This is why I keep asking people to slow down their posting (LQ) because it actually hurts other town from being able to read thoroughly and with effort, when scum really don't have that same desire to comb through posts. She asks for questions to help her jump back into the game, and I try to help out. She does answer in her #1473 which is helpful. Her stance on Eddie was weak, but it doesn't do much to weaken my town read on NSG. On the small off chance that Marquis is scum, she might actually be scum as well. Only slight chance though. A50 thinks she is lock town though. So does Cheeky. (Well that is outdated, she said that quite a while ago, Cheeky isn't active right now, it's just me and A50, but Cheeky did check in with us recently asking us for updates)

Action Dan: So in general, I still have a problem with Action Dan's lack of presence. It feels as the days go on he has less and less presence. He stuck his neck out stating he thought Eddie would still flip town, that looks good on him.
His #1144 is him simply townreading people and using POE. What I really need to see is him going into why, thoroughly if he is doing that, yet he declines. So, that doesn't actually help me sort him. (Yet he says he'll do one today, I hope to see it) I think I have no reason to truly believe he is scum but I'm still wary of him. Slight town.

----
Null

----

Dunnstral: Repeating what I have said earlier: The only thing I get is null. I do like his votes, on Marquis, and his push on T-chill did seem like he had conviction for it. He has been present, and voting, but that's about it. Not seeing any scum intent from him, though. A50 does have him in the scum pool, which is the only thing I have in the back of my mind to keep in mind when reading Dunnstral. An important post I think, is his #2034, which states he isn't invested. The good thing to keep in mind is, that even though he isn't invested, he's still present. || I haven't really seen much from him today, he's just wondering about the kill for now. If we don't lynch scum before him for at least today / tomorrow, then he needs to die.

Marquis: My issue with him is that I can't really find any townieness from him. I do agree that him popping in and out may be scum. I think I'm just more correct with the reads below. If I'm wrong on the lynch today, Marquis must be the next lynch for sure.

Davsto: My overall feelings still remain, so I'll re-post it: I feel like his reads list is overall, surface level. He's still actually in process of ISO'ing Gamma. WGEURTZ, I don't get any vibes from. This is one of those things I can agree with LQ on. (The flatness) It's kind of an issue if Davsto is consistent with that. I also generally don't like how he formats his posts, it makes it hard to parse. LQ's post on him is a good point: #1730 (Second paragraph, first sentence) I think I null read him. I know that he played devil's advocate with Postie on the Eddie case, which seemed townie. Then he makes #1427, agreeing to it. Again, I can't really get too much vibes either way. I keep trying to get a read on him and it's difficult for me. || Now, I'm seeing that he may be having trouble finding mafia. If he's town, I can understand that he's just having surface level opinions and is having a hard time trying to, which is why I'm hoping he does do something with what CES and I asked of him. If CES is not scum, Davsto is. I was hoping he'd actually ISO or answer my questions, I can't really say if he's scum for sure or town, but the way he's posting right now isn't helping me sort him.

----
Scum

----

CES: I realize that CES's #122 Seems suspicious because he states that to Quick without actually stating a scumread on Marquis before then, or giving support. In general, CES in the beginning of game to mid game, seemed to be busy. CES over time has begun to seem more townie to me, especially with his #2279 where he shows worry about the Postie kill. Yet he doesn't really show any re-read yet. His #1596 is concerning to me, as his reads on Shea and Lycanfire don't seem convincing. I would expect a player of his experience to be more critical of a player like Shea. I think sheeping Llama's read is lazy on his part. I actually agree with NSG's point that his pattern of switch to wagons he original wasn't passionate for, gives him scumpoints. It's actually very concerning that he states feeling used as a scapegoat by NSG (which discredits her) but he doesn't actually explain his mindset further. #2279 I'm not confident he is scum, but I feel he'd be the long term scum if so. I think he's slight scum, or town that has been very wrong except his scum read on Marquis in the case Shea/Lyca aren't scum. I find his answer for not explaining his mindset on the Eddie vote to be concerning, I do agree that his vote there wasn't very passionate.

Lycanfire: Lycanfire votes Shea in his #70, without any reasoning at all, which shows he doesn't care to progress RVS. He states he is busy in his [urlhttps://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?p=9907370#p9907370]#430[/url] which is a recurring excuse. In his #932 he states Eddie and Dunn are lynch bait, but doesn't really look into people that are pushing Dunn. Which feels like he is saying that just to say that, but doesn't actually have the interest to follow up and defend those players. He returns to his CES vote #1369, while not trying to push the wagon even though he says he wants people to be on it. In his #1575 he states he didn't do much with it or interact with him due to previous pages being TvT, which doesn't seem believable to me. In his #1669 He states his underperformance is due to people not wanting to play, which is another excuse. He also states my global reads needs changes but he doesn't have solid reads to back his up, especially his town reads. His read on Eddie is mabye scum, for voting Marquis, who he feels is lynchbait. His #1839 seems like a big effort to move from the CES wagon he was sitting on onto Eddie who he was reading as maybe scum. A wagon analysis before he flips, not after. After my interaction with him, he seemed to get better at interacting near the end of Day 2, but it doesn't do much to improve my read on him. I find it to be good play regardless of his alignment there. In his #2222 he opens once again with his push on CES. He's doing better this time by asking LQ 'why no vote CES?' in his #2309, yet again, I think it's null due to him not doing it originally. I have called it out so he knows what to do to keep playing as if he is town. He town reads Shea for being unwavering with Davo's scumread on him, but that's it. It's a bit weak, and he hasn't really tried to sort him, nor did he ask about his direction on Dunnstral, who he believes is lynchbait. Scum. His read on Shea doesn't really factor in that Shea is pushing for Dunn when Lycanfire stated Dunn was lynchbait. Again, showing that he said that only to say that, not actually backing that up.

Shea: Starts out voting NSG in his #82 because he doesn't like that she used wifom, and that she was voting in a way that he felt didn't progress RVS. Yet, a page before, Lycanfire votes Shea in his #70, without any reasoning at all. Shea never asks or comments on Lycan's post here. In his #440 Mentions Tchill and LQ and a pool of players who might be scum with them, but doesn't mention Lycanfire. He doesn't really seem to try to sort Lycanfire, he just townbins him. I still think this is a concerning play from Shea: #435. He interrupts his push on Lycan and doesn't actually comment. He states in his defense #1673 that he just thought it was garbage and felt no need to defend Lycan to his scumread. Yet he hasn't really done much with Quick after reading him as town. During Day 2, I was pushing Quick again but he was not really pushing much, he just commented a bit when I was talking about his progression. Doesn't feel like he had passion for LQ as scum during Day 2, and was content with sitting on Eddie from the beginning. Him wanting to look into Dunn doesn't really feel like he's trying that hard to find mafia, and Lycan did make the point that [Eddie and Dunn are both lynchbait]. (Note if he has ever criticized Shea for pushing Dunn) I do like that he's attempting to work with me more after my original concerns, but still feel he is scum. I don't think his read on Lycan is convincing, and don't understand why he has Dunn as scummier than NSG. NSG feels scummier than Dunn and I feel Shea is running out of options. (Although I think NSG is town, just that she seems like scum from her recent play) #2083 In general, Shea posts reads lists but doesn't really give reasoning along with them, which doesn't help me see why he feels a certain way. Scum.
and this post:
In post 2368, Ranmaru wrote:Alright, Lycanfire. I think I'm just entirely wrong right now, and am re-reading my reads and I just see that I'm too focused on you and Shea being the team. If you are town then I just think you are wrong on CES most importantly. (Also I don't care what Skirt has to say, he can shove it, yet I still respect your team because Transcend and Giga are on it, also I do appreciate you not wanting to make me replace out) Right now, the most sense you are making is with Dan to me right now. LQ is not scum. I'm thinking the team is actually [Marquis, Davsto, Action Dan]. The more I re-read CES's posts the more town he seems to me.

SCUM [Marquis > Davsto > Action Dan | Dunnstral | Lycanfire > Shea > CES > NSG > Gamma > Quick > Ranmaru] TOWN
These posts were less than 24 hours apart.

Here is a list of people that he declared scum yesterday:

With votes:
NSG
Shea
Marquis
ActionDan
LQ
CES

With read lists (no explanation)
Marquis
Davsto
Action Dan
NSG
gamma

With Largish Cases (some explanation):
CES
Me
Lycanfire
LQ
ActionDan
NSG

For those keeping track at home thats literally every player in the game EXCEPT dunn.

Town doesn't vote like this. Town cares about having reads and cares about using those reads to lynch scum. Ran doesn't care about having reads he cares about town momentum and following and directing it to where it will be a misslynch.

His silence on dunnestral yesterday is particularly deafening. In a day where he voted and cased and read listed literally every other player in the game, somehow dunnestral warranted only mentions like this one:
In post 3165, Ranmaru wrote:Only comparison in my mind is that Marquis is suspicious to me, while Dunn is null. Only concern I have with Dunn now is that he's not voting nor is he helping right now, and posting else where. I would expect both will be lynched either way. I just suspect Marquis will be the red flip. I also think Marquis's recent posts are those of a survival instinct. Can you talk to me more about the bias thing?
Seeing as marquis and dunn have been pretty similar players in this game not considering the CES flip, the fact that he was frequently trying to push in the direction of marquis but literally never in the direction of dunn is really odd.

His interactions with CES also consisted basically of calling him scum in a group of three without going after him, voting him later, hopping off that wagon, hopping back on, and then hopping off and declaring ces as town (again with no reasoning) and doing everything in his power to stop that lynch.

Stuff like his interactions with gamma are also kind of bizarre to me. He was so confident in gamma being town that he declared yesterday that he wanted him to decide the lylo lynch.
In post 2735, Ranmaru wrote:I do like the idea that we should elect our pick for lylo vote controller. We should proceed like this:

Elect: Gamma


That's my pick. He's currently my strongest town read. Lycanfire is a good pick too.
All of a sudden, with ces as the most likely wagon and gamma on it, he starts pushing gamma.
In post 3213, Ranmaru wrote:
Unvote


Scum is Shea, Quick, Gamma.

I just don't understand how you go from someone being your strongest town read all of a sudden to being in your lynch pool less than 3 RL days later.

Just to be clear, I am not attacking gamma for lacking consistency. I think that town players often lack consistency, and that actually consistency can be something of a scum tell (see: ces). What I am attacking him for is instead having no reads. Just throwing literally everyones name out there and seeing which ones get traction, then immediately switching on a dime when they don't.

3) His constant buddying. Ran has used his "town read" status in this game super hard. He even tried to do it today, when he said "no the lynch is me or x today." to try to lead the town into doing what he wants. He frequently goes from calling people scum to buddying them less than a page later, trying to pull them in on whatever lynch he happens to favor at this time. He's not trying to determine dans alignment when he says "I want you voting this" he's not trying to determine my alignment when he says "I want you on this wagon." He's trying to buddy us.

4) This is perhaps the most important point and builds off of the rest. Ranmaru doesn't have reads. He has lynches. He doesn't just switch scum reads, he goes from not scum reading someone at all to demanding that they be lynched immediately with full gusto. For someone who changes his reads as much as he does, one would think a town thought process would be more cautious. More along the lines of "Oh, I thought Dan was scum before but now I think hes not my read on dan must not have been that strong, but now I'm kind of thinking it might be shea lets see if I can pull out this read a little more because I think I was wrong about dan." He doesn't do that. He goes immediately from hard trying to lynch dan to trying to hard lynch me while trying to pull in dan, who he had just been trying to lynch previously. This basically shows a thought process where he doesn't care if hes right, he doesn't care if his reads are accurate, they all can apply the same amount of force towards a lynch.
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Post Post #3636 (ISO) » Wed Mar 07, 2018 9:39 am

Post by Gamma Emerald »

1) Can you provide the list of all the people he's voted? I think with some lateral thinking I can disprove this point.
2) Fair, although sometimes his switches make sense (such as when he switched to scumreading me).
3) Why is trying to campaign for votes scummy? I think there could be better way of doing it (say, asking for thoughts on the case and saying if you agree vote with me) but it just seems like someone trying to lead. Plus I feel like there is a way to sort with those requests: seeing who supports and is against scum lynches.
4) Fair point, it seems Ran has been adjusting reads to what's beneficial for him.
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Post Post #3637 (ISO) » Wed Mar 07, 2018 9:44 am

Post by Thestatusquo »

In post 3636, Gamma Emerald wrote:1) Can you provide the list of all the people he's voted? I think with some lateral thinking I can disprove this point.
2) Fair, although sometimes his switches make sense (such as when he switched to scumreading me).
3) Why is trying to campaign for votes scummy? I think there could be better way of doing it (say, asking for thoughts on the case and saying if you agree vote with me) but it just seems like someone trying to lead. Plus I feel like there is a way to sort with those requests: seeing who supports and is against scum lynches.
4) Fair point, it seems Ran has been adjusting reads to what's beneficial for him.
1) For yesterday the people hes voted is listed in my post under the heading "with votes".
2) Sometimes they did, but everyones actions sometimes make sense. Like I said, switching your reads is not a scum tell. It was the way he switched his reads and how often and how he acted like his previous reads no longer even existed after he switched them. I also don't think his switch to scum reading you made much sense reading the transition. it was kind of like he was doing meta and declaring you lock town because of it and then all of a sudden he declared you as scum because of some different meta. Why was he picking and choosing meta to scum read vs town read you at different times? Am I missing something here?
3) Trying to take a lead is not inherently scummy, but the way he did it was scummy. Campaigning for votes on whatever wagon hes pushing with as far as I can tell very little lead up. One post, action dan is scummy and he wants me to lynch action dan. The next post I am scummy and he wants action dan to lynch me. These worldviews are not compatible with each other. They suggest to me that the lynch is what is important, not who it is on and not who is voting it, which I would describe as the opposite of a town mindset.
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Post Post #3638 (ISO) » Wed Mar 07, 2018 10:01 am

Post by Lycanfire »

Here ye! Here ye, scummy folk!


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Post Post #3639 (ISO) » Wed Mar 07, 2018 10:19 am

Post by Gamma Emerald »

In post 3637, Thestatusquo wrote:
In post 3636, Gamma Emerald wrote:1) Can you provide the list of all the people he's voted? I think with some lateral thinking I can disprove this point.
2) Fair, although sometimes his switches make sense (such as when he switched to scumreading me).
3) Why is trying to campaign for votes scummy? I think there could be better way of doing it (say, asking for thoughts on the case and saying if you agree vote with me) but it just seems like someone trying to lead. Plus I feel like there is a way to sort with those requests: seeing who supports and is against scum lynches.
4) Fair point, it seems Ran has been adjusting reads to what's beneficial for him.
1) For yesterday the people hes voted is listed in my post under the heading "with votes".
2) Sometimes they did, but everyones actions sometimes make sense. Like I said, switching your reads is not a scum tell. It was the way he switched his reads and how often and how he acted like his previous reads no longer even existed after he switched them. I also don't think his switch to scum reading you made much sense reading the transition. it was kind of like he was doing meta and declaring you lock town because of it and then all of a sudden he declared you as scum because of some different meta. Why was he picking and choosing meta to scum read vs town read you at different times? Am I missing something here?
3) Trying to take a lead is not inherently scummy, but the way he did it was scummy. Campaigning for votes on whatever wagon hes pushing with as far as I can tell very little lead up. One post, action dan is scummy and he wants me to lynch action dan. The next post I am scummy and he wants action dan to lynch me. These worldviews are not compatible with each other. They suggest to me that the lynch is what is important, not who it is on and not who is voting it, which I would describe as the opposite of a town mindset.
1) What about other days?
2) He wasn't picking and choosing meta, he just had different things he was connecting from this game to the others.
3) Okay fair, but I feel like if the read flipping gets explained this kinda falls by the wayside for me.
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Post Post #3640 (ISO) » Wed Mar 07, 2018 10:35 am

Post by Davsto »

if u think dunn is scum then ran's behaviour should be giving red flags bc right now the lynch was largely between ran and dunn, and ran was trying to railroad it onto being ran and marquis

I see his current Dun vote and will wait a little before commenting on it bc I wanna see how it pans
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Post Post #3641 (ISO) » Wed Mar 07, 2018 10:48 am

Post by Thestatusquo »

Davsto could you rephrase that?
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Post Post #3642 (ISO) » Wed Mar 07, 2018 11:07 am

Post by Davsto »

Imo for the most part today the most popular candidates for lynch are ranmaru and Dunn - a couple of others want other players lunch but for the most part ran/dun are most popular, so the day seems to be going in the direction of ran vs dun

And Ranmaru was campaigning hard for the lynch to be between him and marquis

Imo it came across as scum awkwardly trying to get the lynch off of being between a choice between two scum?
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Post Post #3643 (ISO) » Wed Mar 07, 2018 11:09 am

Post by Gamma Emerald »

In post 3642, Davsto wrote:Imo for the most part today the most popular candidates for lynch are ranmaru and Dunn - a couple of others want other players lunch but for the most part ran/dun are most popular, so the day seems to be going in the direction of ran vs dun

And Ranmaru was campaigning hard for the lynch to be between him and marquis

Imo it came across as scum awkwardly trying to get the lynch off of being between a choice between two scum?
I guess that makes sens ebut I'm more comfortable with a Dunn lynch than a Ran lynch currently
Maybe those will be my next CES ISO ctrl-f picks
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Post Post #3644 (ISO) » Wed Mar 07, 2018 11:10 am

Post by Thestatusquo »

Ah yes, I agree with that, though rans recent dunn vote does make that theory less likely, but I'll believe ran will lynch dunn (who he has had as a null read the whole game) when the hammer falls.
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Post Post #3645 (ISO) » Wed Mar 07, 2018 11:11 am

Post by Gamma Emerald »

btw I want to discuss this now: should we no lynch for 5p if we mislynch today?
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Post Post #3646 (ISO) » Wed Mar 07, 2018 12:14 pm

Post by Ranmaru »

When I get some time I will respond in full, Shea.
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Post Post #3647 (ISO) » Wed Mar 07, 2018 2:05 pm

Post by ActionDan »

We've lost power for most of the day and it won't be restored until at least 24 hours apparently
I'll give you a moment to let that sink in
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Post Post #3648 (ISO) » Wed Mar 07, 2018 5:04 pm

Post by MathBlade »

Votecount 4.4

Dunnstral(2)
~ (19), (16)

Ranmaru(1)
~ (14)


Not Voting (5): Gamma Emerald(16), Shadoweh(10), (8), Thestatusquo(12), Dunnstral(3)

With 8 alive it takes 5 to lynch.

Day 4 deadline is in (expired on 2018-03-19 04:22:42)


Sorry for the delayed VC was in doctor’s office all day today.
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Post Post #3649 (ISO) » Wed Mar 07, 2018 5:39 pm

Post by LicketyQuickety »

I want people to give their reason, not for why they want to vote so and so, but why NOT to lynch Dunn.
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