Team Mafia 2018: White Flag — Day Six

[LicketyQuickety]

Also,

Happy Scum day Ranmaru!

[Shadoweh]

Ran you're kind of a riot to read. The way you present your argument ("I ask the town") sounds like a lawyer presenting their case.
The posts you're using as proof Davsto was seem to paint someone who was low on time which is a good reason not to reconsider what he's doing? Actually going back and looking, Davsto spends the entire rest of his posts that day after what you posted speaking with CES and solidifying why CES should be his vote. Why would CES be begging his scum partner in thread to look at other people, does this game not have daytalk? (Checking, scum role pm says daytalk). I can't imagine a universe I would hold it against someone for being told by scum they should be lynching me and the Davsto whispering, 'No'.

This was after my request for him to elaborate on his full reads list. #1765 He had Gamma as scum, which I was wondering about. So, he said he'd ISO him more to get a better idea. This is what happened, and then CES came and tried to help him out. "Here, ISO Marquis blah blah blah." It seemed like a helpful guide in another direction. His reaction was not expected from me. My thoughts is, that he was trying to push towards Gamma's direction, but he couldn't actually fake a reason to push on Gamma, and Gamma had posted so much that it was impossible for Davsto to get anything out of it. Instead of re-evaluating, it takes him that many times to 'keep the push' up. (Which he was stalling with) So his buddy helped him to turn on him to have a direction for the day instead of not being able to turn up with anything. #3398 rubs me off because it shows he's content with the lynch, but his confidence doesn't match:

This is basically rewriting history. :/ Unless Davsto is the worst scum in history I'm sure he could have come up with a reason to attack Gamma. It seemed like he decided a 250 page iso wasn't worth it compared to what was happening in the now with CES. It's exactly what I would have done and your attempts to get him to iso Gamma are more like what you're saying CES was doing in trying to get him to iso Marqmeis as a distraction. Like I am reading these posts and other then saying a vague scumread at Gamma there's no push from him there. It's like you made a case on why he's a townie.

btw I want to discuss this now: should we no lynch for 5p if we mislynch today?

If we're allowed to do it it's the most optimal play, so yes.

Again, I had many opportunities to hammer what CES was pushing though, you're not looking at the full picture

This still doesn't mean anything, you hammering me would have gotten both of you lynched and last time I checked that's a town victory.

It seems like people think these two make sense as scum together but not really with other people? I hate lurking but even with posts like this Dunn triggers me a little less.

[Gamma Emerald]

I looked at dunn mentions in CES' ISO and he's kinda middle-of-the-road, early posting from CES looks like scumbuddies but later looks like he's lumping Dunn in with Marquis which makes me think Dunn is town
Also does anyone still have doubts about me? cos I can quote the one post by CES that should remove those doubts very effectively

[ActionDan]

Soooo Power won't be restored until late at night Saturday. Fun couple of days for me and my family await.

Also I have plenty of doubts about you gamma, but link w/e post you want.

[Shadoweh]

rip daniel

[Gamma Emerald]

Intent to hammer

If you hammer, it's a scum claim.

This. I'm not going to call this definitive but it should make you think about the idea of me being scum a bit more critically.

[Dunnstral]

Again, I had many opportunities to hammer what CES was pushing though, you're not looking at the full picture

Point them out, I want to look at all of them.

Alright, what I was thinking of for last day phase was the point where I unvote marquis even after he ignores me and lazily votes for me, also denying actiondan the opportunity to ever hammer marquis (who could be town)

VOTE: actiondan

This looks most likely to me

[Dunnstral]

would vote tsq too, that's my other pick

[Dunnstral]

I don't think ranmaru is scum

[LicketyQuickety]

Again, I had many opportunities to hammer what CES was pushing though, you're not looking at the full picture

Point them out, I want to look at all of them.

Alright, what I was thinking of for last day phase was the point where I unvote marquis even after he ignores me and lazily votes for me, also denying actiondan the opportunity to ever hammer marquis (who could be town)

VOTE: actiondan

This looks most likely to me

So naturally, I have to ask you why you were TRing Marquis.

[Dunnstral]

I saw his posting sequence that happens before my unvote and had second thoughts

[LicketyQuickety]

I saw his posting sequence that happens before my unvote and had second thoughts

Can you quote where you talked about this?

[Dunnstral]

I didn't, I'm responding to you asking why I unvoted in the first place

[LicketyQuickety]

I didn't, I'm responding to you asking why I unvoted in the first place

Well, then IDK why you unvoted in the first place if you never said why you unvoted. This is why reasons are good, which is something you fall short on to epic proportions this game. I can't just believe that you were doing it for good reasons. I mean, for all I know, you unvoted Marquis thinking that Marquis was going to get lynched anyways. I have nothing to compare it to so I am left with nothing regarding why you did xyz.

[Lycanfire]

why do i even bother to effort edition

CES' FLIP IS POWERFUL.

The entire thread can be read from CES' pov, and all his motives can be poked at. Living in his moments and feeling how he may have felt at the time is key to determining the context in how he was speaking.

WE CAN FOCUS ON WHAT IS READABLE.

We have a lens that we are able to view the thread with and read it with the context to serve us with the results that we want (namely: lynching his partners).

WE HAVE BETTER REASONING AND MORE INFORMATION TODAY THAN WE DID BEFORE.

Consider how sure I was with CES, which started with a single post, to a bad interaction, to bad wagon movement. Does him flipping disprove any previously mentioned theory? No. All of these things happened and all conclusions made have to fit the context of the game.

Using the above three deductions, only one conclusion can be made:

LQ is scum, and this post will prove it.

CASE 1 - VOTE HISTORY

Gamma Emerald (3) ~ ActionDan, Cogito Ergo Sum, LicketyQuickety 853
LicketyQuickety (3) ~ Ranmaru, Srceenplay, Gamma Emerald 961

enough said

CASE 2 - WAGONOMICS

I have already previously mentioned how Tchill was the counter to LQ.

-LQ reaches 4 votes to Srceenplay 5.
-CES immediately shades the wagon, promotes Tchill wagon
-Dan shades the wagon, promotes Tchill wagon
...
-sometime later CES hammers and pretends a gun was put to his head, yadayada never bothered to push his other reads over it

...

CASE 3 - THE SUSPECTS

CES had

four clear suspects in mind

day 1. They were Marquis (wagon), Gamma (wagon), Postie (vain), Tchill (hammered). Two of these have flipped town.

I agree with NSG that it is likely that CES never voted scum. CES is a geriatric. Older players know that people will look for patterns when there are none, and will try to find distancing when there is none, a bus when there is none. The flaw in scumhunting in this way is that

you are at the mercy of scum, and they get to play spoiler.

You HAVE to define the interaction as explicitly SvS. If there's any universe where it is SvT, it can be because

the wolf wants you to think it's SvS.

CES doesn't have to distance in this game- plus, this is consistent with the behavior I described before

CES is stuck on Marquis because he knows he's going to die and giving any more info only hurts the scumteam. He's about the only person that has bothered to drum up something beyond that Marquis lurked (Dan doesn't count because Dan's case sucks)

CES has been under suspicion all game.

Walk with me in the shoes of CES day 1.

Why did CES break with the town so rapidly day 1? 665, 728 are examples I never let CES get away with. Why not promote the Tchill wagon and infiltrate the town? Llamarble was running the town at the time, and either by luck or skill had a decent town bloc behind him. White Flag is the scumhunters setup: I think most of us were sent here before our role PMs were drawn. CES was burdened by proficiency, and joining the flock left him to justify himself to Llamarble. "Scumhunting" CES had nothing to justify. This is what happened. He did not push Tchill because it was scummy to do so.

Why did CES not promote Marquis over the Tchill wagon? Going against the town with shoddy reasoning would be scummy as hell.

Why did CES not promote Gamma over LQ? Davsto's vote comes just over 100 posts after Llamarble says to lynch the entire Gamma wagon of CES-Dan-LQ. And a hundred posts after that Llamarble says he loves Gamma's vote onto LQ. In what fucking world does making Gamma a counter to LQ help the scumteam?

Why did CES not promote Marquis over LQ? We reach an interesting dichotomy here. The answer is because one of them is scum. There's

no reason

why CES cannot promote Marquis over LQ, yet he does not.

Why did CES promote Tchill over LQ? It is because LQ is scum. LQ was already going terminal in 476 in Llamarble/Shea/myself vs LQ, after the Davsto vote, he doubles down in 991. Not exactly an inspiring story. He follows it up by moving reads around but he doesn't scumhunt ever again until he bashes his skull into Shea D3. I'm being generous by calling that scumhunting. 991 is the peak town performance scumQ can offer.

CASE 3 - THE NIGHT KILLS

Llamarble - killed because of 875
Postie - killed because of 1949
Lycanfire - I was the kill. I was killed because I called him scum every other post D3. Scum literally could not win with me alive and I'm surprised they didn't make the still completely legal kill of offing the treestump. There wasn't going to be a drop of wine in the nightkill. I wish I was dead right now.

CASE 4 - SUPPLEMENTARY EVIDENCE

LQ goes onto Gamma start of D3 because of 1949
LQ wants Dunnstral lynched because of the same post even though if he was playing a competent scumgame he would be reverse white flag gambiting atm. I already called the team impossible.

He has scumclaimed in three different instances

(scumtears, and he's actually referring to Gamma, but says Ran for some reason.)

@Lycan,

I am a firm believer that no one is "lock Town" unless they are confirmed by the mod to be Town. Also, don't give me that "there are no associations with Ran" because we haven't got a red flip yet. So no, Ran is not clear. If you have a very good reason to say why he is Town, that is one thing, but to say he is lock Town is not something I can roll with.

(this is four hours after the CES flip)
LQ salt requesting this set up to be evaluated in Open Setup Discussion

Request: 15 player White Flag, 3 Scum

LQ noming NSG for a scummie

Nom northsidegal for Rising Star.

Will have to do a proper meta dive, but North types with clarity and insight with nearly every post they make.

My team agrees that this is NEVER town, can only be scum tears, and we expected day to never happen until night was delayed because we were sure that the scumteam was surrendering.

More reasons to believe me: skirt legitimately trusts my reads and isn't just saying that.

[Lycanfire]

Please vote LQ, Ran.

I don't think it's LQ. Both Marquis and Action Dan never showed up before deadline.

marquis and dan never show up for anything. vote LQ.

[Lycanfire]

davsto: where did your LQ vote go?

[Lycanfire]

LQ goes onto Gamma start of D3 because of 1949

I meant 430. I'm either sleep deprived or you're all melding into the same antitown fucker.

Vote onto CES wasn't meant to be, LQ vs Shea is shit, and LQ has no business with his vote on Shea with how little sense he is making. Marquis and LQ aren't wolves because of how they talk to each other see 456-458, 1505 all being the easy examples. Sprinkle in vote data (marquis and gamma must die, ces too, just kidding! also, a wild shea) and I don't think they're on the same team. LQ's votes are very reactionary, and the Gamma one in particular is aimed because I said they couldn't be aligned based on interactions, and I imagine he was more worried about Llamarble's D1 post than any of us when he opened day with that can of worms. I read LQ as having a hitlist of people he can't get along with endgame, and this Shea argument just reads like he's muddying the waters.

says it more eloquently

[Davsto]

davsto: where did your LQ vote go?

I changed my mind on him and think he's probably town and there are way more clear candidates for scum

Also I dislike your analysis, I feel it's coming at everything at an angle of "CES could have done this, why didn't he?" which is a weird angle of reasoning bc just because you would do such-and-such as scum doesn't mean he would

I'll look at it in more detail tonight but my immediate reaction is it's all a bit convoluted and unlikely but hey maybe I'll get a revelation when I read in detail

I'll keep my Ran vote for now ty also will reply to the other posts directed at me soon dw I'm not ignoring yall

[Lycanfire]

scum team of tchill, LQ and then one in {wgeurts, Cogito Ergo Sum, Dunnstral, Gamma Emerald, EddieFenix } ?

that's not a great POE on the last slot but thankfully I don't have to worry about it yet.

Yeah, it's not POE, it's preflip.

a co-ordinated scum team of Tchill, LQ, and Marble (which wouldn't be out of the question as of this post now that I think about it.

So uh
My buddies are my top 2 scumpicks
One of whom I am voting
Excellent

Though I actually got happy when I (a few hours ago) ran into that LQ post about Tchill meta, it was very.much the flavor of.buddies. So you can have partial credit for noticing that at least.

I see we are doing preflip here. What is the motivation for doing so?

There was no deeper meaning. I felt there was a higher chance of LQ and Eddie being scum together, while I had Marquis as a scum read on the back burner, as I wasn't too confident in it. I'd like for you to look into NSG.

Yup. This is why Pre-Flip sucks eggs.

Because Pre-Flip is bad.. Duh.

[Lycanfire]

Llamarble if I called the scumteam as Marquis+ActionDan+CES what would be your opinion?

I don't see anything wrong with these choices, particularly CES + AD I can believe. CES is going after Marquis with a decent amount of energy, but not enough to rule out the pairing.

You didn't really need to make 5 posts just to make like one interesting point, 'marble. Come on, if you're going to unvote lurkerscum, please be a good example in a different way. Also, I suggest you ask fferyllt about Marquis.

3) again it's literally been a day. i know i didn't post when i said i would (oh no someone didn't keep their word on ms.net) but like. come on. it's not 2005. lurking isn't a scumtell (if anything the scum meta is spamposting but i'll cut off because i'm not sure if that applies here yet). town has just as much motivation to not want to deal with things. case in point i pretty much played overwatch all last night because i really didn't feel like coming into d1 scumreads/votes on me and trying to defend myself.

I see the same mechanisms protecting you as I'm used to seeing, so I care very little about your generalities about the current meta. I do like how you point out that it should barely count as lurking in a few different ways only to undercut it by admitting you lurked intentionally.

Is that supposed to excuse your earlier scummitude

?

LQ still looks town to me. Lots of posts I've glossed over admittedly and I probably could use to recheck my read there,

but I don't see the scummitude others do

.

None of Marquis' recent posts look to me as anything other than null, and certainly not giving me town vibes for the language, emotion or any content within as suggested by Gamma. In fact the time spent making those posts could have been used to read the thread, as I'm sure Marquis is aware.

Tchill lack of anything not Postie related after he thought certain posts of hers looked townie is now a concern of mine. That said recognizing that at least some of her posts have merit to them is an encouraging sign and I maintain previous to that his thought processes didn't strike me as particularly scummy.

I still don't know where CES stands in his reads this game and don't know why he thought Marquis was scummy to begin with earlier before the lurking.

I still don't know where CES stands in his reads this game and don't know why he thought Marquis was scummy to begin with earlier before the lurking.

Yeah, things aren't really going quite as planned

; I thought things would develop more helpfully. The main reasons I found Marquis scummy very early on were 1) his general awkward tone early on and 2) the whole "representative" affectation. I think Signs and Void from last Team Mafia is pretty important context here - his early posts here feel really similar. I think both of those things are more significant than his lurking although his lurking has also felt scum-motivated (but I'd be more hard-pressed to explain the nuts and bolts of that feeling).

Why no conclusion?

Not only that, but in 225 he just assumed Llama was doing a slayers gambit of some sort as opposed to just thinking Llama is firing from the hip (which can come from Town and Scum alike), which IIRC Llama neither confirms nor denies which makes his vote on ECS superflux.

Was the distinction I made too subtle to be clear to you or what?

Why no conclusion?

I... posted the conclusion first?

Could you repost your conclusion than?

I would like to thank everyone that asked me stupid questions and ones they did not expect answers to. It's only as a result of your effort that the shining beacons of content in this post become more real.

I can say I really don't like your 'holier than thou' attitude.

[Lycanfire]

I've offered evidence beyond "CES did this, CES did not have to do that".

I've provided wagon analysis, pointed out trends in posting, PoEd a townie to death, PoEd others to being pounced upon, and delivered a flip when there was no morale for it.

I'm fine doing D3P2.

"Cases are scummy" ~ Cogito Ergo Scum

[Lycanfire]

I've been relatively hands off all day and look at all the fun exciting scumhunting going on.

[Lycanfire]

Noticing low activity (I know, pot meets kettle), and I'm guessing people feel a lot like we've already won?

Explain.

[MathBlade]

Votecount 4.5

Dunnstral(2)

~ LicketyQuickety(24), Ranmaru(16)

Ranmaru(1)

~ Davsto(15)

ActionDan(1)

~ Dunnstral(8)


Not Voting (4): Gamma Emerald(18), Shadoweh(12), ActionDan(9), Thestatusquo(12)

With 8 alive it takes 5 to lynch.

Day 4 deadline is in (expired on 2018-03-19 04:22:42)