Open 712: Elemental Large (Mafia win)

[Kopherald]

Yeah it's been a whole day and he's been active elsewhere so I'm voteparking this until/unless something convinces me otherwise.

VOTE: Creature

Is vote parking on what is likely scum a superior strategy to actually scum hunting, though?

Its early and if this keeps up, Creature is obvscum but it's clear that pressure votes don't make him post as scum.

-Brass

I took the top sentence as, "even if we have caught some very obvious scum play here, we should spend the time we have on game-day1 to do some other scum hunting over the course of the next IRL week (or so) as it may help later"

that might have been through associatives or other scum hunting methods... the ping for me was if Creature is obv scum, why not just plain old rush? I can't think of a reason I would want scum to be in the game longer than necessary.




I think it was probably just miscommunication

Yeah, we're saying the same thing

Oops.

-Brass

[profii]

I misread the bolded part below:

Interesting play points on Creature.

He's been online since the game has started

,

but he hasn't posted anywhere

else, either; it was quite early in the morning, so it's possible he hasn't yet checked his role PM. I'd rather wait to wagon him until he's posted or more time goes by.

Considering that his entrance is pretty typical of his playstyle and that he is now active and engaged, I'm okay with placing him in the townpile now. The OMGUS response is typical of him, as A50 pointed out.

So you (mis)read the part you bolded, but skipped the part I put in red? Okkk

A50

, I'm having trouble with all of these associations you're making. You said that Creature and Doom are obviously linked. I'm not convinced. Then you say that a scum Creature would mean a scum Taly. Again I'm not convinced.

Paradox

, You've done something similar.

Spoiler:

Okay then.
One of {Creature, doom, A50} is scum. If A50 is town, the other two are probably scum. If A50 is scum, the other two are probably town.
VOTE: Almost50

How can you be sure this is not town on town? How can you be sure that A50 isn't bussing?

I've decided I don't need a response.

VOTE: TGP

This looks like his scum game to me. I've seen it before.

-Brass

Can you explain what exactly looks like his scum game? He's only made 3 posts.

Texcat, what did you mean by putting that bit in red?

[Lalendra]

Texcat's play is different to her townplay.

How so? I played recently in a game where she was conftown and barely participated so I'm not seeing yet how this is AI for her.

[TheGoldenParadox]

Because you immediately got caught as scum or...?

No, because I kinda hate this game right now.

So I have just reflected on the creature thing. It is notable that rn he has made significantly more posts than anyone else.

Initially a few players picked up on the meta read of inactive-creature = scum!creature, this principle was put on the table by A50

So the people who are involved with creature were:
A50
Lalendra
Sando
KopHerald
Ausuka
ShadPearl

So let's sort these players.

ShadPearl

is probably the easiest, he didn't seem to acknowledge the meta principle as such. I still think this is noob play, rather than malicious. Probably town

Sando

RVS' creature, acknowledges the meta and then picks on Almost50's slighty incongruent push on Creature. I'm ok with this so Sando probably town in this engagement.

KopHerald

,

didn't get involved in the creature debate quite as quickly but post 63 did ping me a bit, if someone is obvscum, I appreciate that we want to maybe try and drive up some associations, however if scum is outed so quickly, they will be very guarded so I think we should prioritise removing scum from the game and then hope the NKA/VCA would provide a bit of help. Saying that, this entire post was caveated with 'if he doesn't get involved' which as I mentioned, has since changed. Brassherald didn't vote but I just felt compelled to include post 63 in this review. It's interesting that KopHerald also said voting wouldn't bring Creature to the fore. I would like to just specifically confirm that given Kop talking to Creature and not voting for him, he is on the trail of 'creature is involved, therefore not obvscum' as per post 63 - I assume I'm right.

Ausuka

says in 74 that Creature is 100% scum, presumably based on this activity meta, but 20 posts later says he is not. Didn't ever place the vote, said it would not be useful to do so. Doesn't seem to suspicious but fairly null

Almost50

- jumped straight in with the meta principle. He hasn't posted that much but despite Creature engaging in the game, hasn't changed his tune much so it's concerning.

Lalendra

pointed out that Creature has been active elsewhere and intends to vote park, then once he posted, flipped to town without giving any quotes just that he Creature was engaged. Kop pointed out the activity point was an error. This seems like someone trying to appear town on an easy meta read. I don't like it.


VOTE: Lalendra

I think Lalendra is try hard'ing to be town.
Almost50 is potentially going down a tunnel which only makes him a policy lynch at the moment which would be silly
I know KopHerald queried my read on ShadPearl but I'm still fairly happy to say it's noob play and not lynch.

There are people with a track record of reading creature 100% across dozens of games through meta. Creats is not exactly the hard-to-st=ort type. He always lurks hard as scum.

[Lalendra]

Could you elaborate on your personal meta-read with Creature? Also, what do you think about TheGoldenParadox's 149

I was in this game with him where he was town IC, and his posting style was very similar to here - didn't make his entrance til post 124, and then would respond to posts with one-line or one-word posts.

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=74442

Similar meta here as VT.

viewtopic.php?f=51&t=74021

I think 149 is iffy, it was a misrep but could be rooted in misunderstanding. I'm not getting strong town-vibes from TGP but the wagon seems opportunistic so I'm staying off of it til I have a better reason to get on.

[Lalendra]

No response to my readslist?

Also, what makes you so confident in Creature being town now?

the amount of effort you're putting in leads me to believe you are likely town.

Why do you think effort is related to alignment?

Because scum already know who is town and who is scum. Sure it's possible to fake long-winded readslists as scum, but imo, this type of thinking-out-loud posting usually comes from town.

[texcat]

The only thing that's really stood out to me are Texcat and Aneninen going at each other quietly so I prodded that. Otherwise... Everyone else said it better, haha

I DO just wanna say, however : It is so strange to me that everyone is afraid to lynch each other in this first round. Or at least to pick a person, haha. (Oh, gosh, I just got myself lynched, huh?) xD It's okay to take a leap in round 1.The kills will get us more information. Let's get up and go somewhere, not just make tracks in the mud.

You'll have to get Aneninen to explain why he's going after me. But going after each other is a misrep. I haven't gone after Aneninen, aside from my RVS vote which didn't even make it to the bottom of page 1.

I misread the bolded part below:

Interesting play points on Creature.

He's been online since the game has started

,

but he hasn't posted anywhere

else, either; it was quite early in the morning, so it's possible he hasn't yet checked his role PM. I'd rather wait to wagon him until he's posted or more time goes by.

Considering that his entrance is pretty typical of his playstyle and that he is now active and engaged, I'm okay with placing him in the townpile now. The OMGUS response is typical of him, as A50 pointed out.

So you (mis)read the part you bolded, but skipped the part I put in red? Okkk

Texcat, what did you mean by putting that bit in red?

I'm not sure I can make it any clearer, but.... Brass pointed out in 102 that Lalendra was wrong when she said Creature was active elsewhere. Lalendra's excuse was that she misread the Doom quote. And she bolded the part she misread. I was just pointing out in red that the same sentence also says that he hadn't posted anywhere, a direct contradiction to what Lalendra claimed in 62.

[Kopherald]

No response to my readslist?

Also, what makes you so confident in Creature being town now?

the amount of effort you're putting in leads me to believe you are likely town.

Why do you think effort is related to alignment?

Because scum already know who is town and who is scum. Sure it's possible to fake long-winded readslists as scum, but imo, this type of thinking-out-loud posting usually comes from town.

The issue though is we also have an SK here.

The question, I then ask is this: Do you believe that his effort would be at the same level as his town effort if he rolled the SK role and also does not know who any of the goons are?

-Brass

[davesaz]

JimmyUrineMoneyShot replaces blockcandy.

[JimmyUrineMoneyShot]

I DO just wanna say, however : It is so strange to me that everyone is afraid to lynch each other in this first round.

Why do you think everyone is afriad? Is there anyone in particular that you've noticed this?

If I'm understanding right, Creatures likes being town and hates being scum.
@Creature. Do you like being indy?

Headed to work but tonight will post thoughts on game thusfar.

[doomfeathers]

And I'm here now. Our Internet chose this morning to act up.

Here's my first wall.

People who are doing things (kudos to you guys):
Taly
Lalendra
Ausuka
Almost50

Out of these, so far only Ausuka did something.

Well, tried to do something or expressed some opinion, at least.

(pretty sure I still am competent enough to make my first post as scum rather than avoid first-time posting)

Fair enough.

I don't think there's any good reason to wagon [Aneninen];

he hasn't looked particularly scummy

that I remember, and his votes were just leftover RVS. I can examine him if you wish.

Scum considers this kind of comment on them as a satisfactory result.

That is a good point. I will investigate Aneninen.

Almost50 wagon seems like a good idea, but for now I'll wagon the liar:

VOTE: Lalendra

Looks a bit OMGUS.

I would hate for someone to be forced to play if they didn't want to, hence my vote.

That is certainly nice of you, but it's not going to help you win. You want to find people you think are scum, then vote them. If Creature doesn't want to play, he can always replace out.

I lean Shad town. He looks scummy in pretty much the same manner every newbie townie ever does, as opposed to how newbie scum would look. This is his first game, for Gaben's sake; he wouldn't be that devious. I'm thinking there's scum in his wagon, maybe multiple.

I ask you the same question, how do you know that he is a newbie? Are you not possibly considering that he could have experience of mafia from other websites, and possibly not changed his style? This could be how he plays. Don't rule out anything and put it down to one thing, because there is always a slim possible chance that you could be duped because your putting it down to his join date on here.

Hence "lean town". I've seen newbies I was absolutely sure on and townread them more strongly than this. But I still think it looks newbie.

Does anyone know how the leocrotta to read hydras?

I don't even know what the question means.

I just needed a cuss, so I used a NetHack monster. How does one read Hydras when you've got two people sounding different? Do you just read them individually?

Almost50 wagon seems like a good idea, but for now I'll wagon the liar:

VOTE: Lalendra

Nice catch by Brass...
VOTE: Lalendra

Wot, no explanation? Why are you voting Lalendra?

[doomfeathers]

doom is more or less a noob. He also has something on me (because in the game he linked I was his scum p and I went on to win that game despite him having been lynched on D1, so he could be paranoid).

Of course I'm paranoid. That's how Mafia works. It's optimal play. I fail to see how paranoia negates my reads.

However, I don't see why he jumped to defend Creature before even Creature had posted, given that my meta argument was accurate and supported by many others (doom may not know Creature's meta himself, but when several players back the argument up it must be true).

First, while majority opinion does make something more likely to be true, it does not guarantee truth, as demonstrated by the Geocentric theory. Second, I did not say Creature was unlikely to be scum, but only that it would have been unfruitful to wagon him at that time since we could by it achieve neither reads nor a lynch. If you wish to wagon him now, by all means go ahead. (Not that I'll necessarily support you or anything, of course.)

Creature is OMGUSy by nature, He hate to be wagoned as either alignment and could very well SR his voters, I admit.

Helpful, thank you.

However, his entrance was HORRIBLE. The "Town?" comment on an opening post by doom was silly enough to earn Creature a SR on it's own, even if he had to retract it soon after. Creature is GOOD as Town, and would not have commented on that post AT ALL if he was Town here.

You might get farther explaining why he is scummy rather than yelling about how scummy he is.

The bad play/nonesense still points to Scum!Creature, especially since that comment came while he was catching up, thus should have yet seen what I said about him (i.e. no way he OMGUS SR'd me as Town!him would still)

I'm not understanding what you're saying here. Are you saying he wouldn't have OMGUS-scumread you as town?

[Ausuka]

This seems like someone trying to appear town on an easy meta read.

How does it?

[Ausuka]

Am I the only one who doesn't think Lalendra!scum comes into the thread and says something verifiably false?

[Ausuka]

No, because I kinda hate this game right now.

One of {Creature, doom, A50} is scum.

How did you reach that conclusion, detective?

Can you answer this please.

[Ausuka]

VOTE: Unvote: Creature
Vote: Almost50

Okay then.
One of {Creature, doom, A50} is scum. If A50 is town, the other two are probably scum. If A50 is scum, the other two are probably town.
VOTE: Almost50

I agree with this logic -and I'm willing to put Almost50 on the chopping block to try it.

Alright so I want to point out in more depth why this post is really, really bad.
I mean, 139 is bad enough on its own. He just lists three pretty widely scumread players and says "one of these are scum." There's nothing that would indicate this is true. Obviously it has to do with A50 scumreading Creature and doom, but like there's no reason that can't be TvT. It feels like lining up lynches on the arguing townies while sitting back and laughing.

And then you have 142, which

agrees

with this "logic" (there is no logic in 139, btw) and then says he is willing to ACTUALLY LYNCH A50 on the premise that if he is town then he attacked scum.

Shadpearl's comment on A50 being scum because he is pushing aggressively also makes pretty much 0 sense to me.

[doomfeathers]

Both Town and

playing really bad

???

Defending each other.

I'll defend who I like, thank you very much. Whether he's defending me doesn't keep me from doing so. Why is my defense of him more suspicious than my defense of, say, Ausuka, just because he happens to be townreading me?

Creature (4) - Sando, Almost50, Shadpearl, Lalendra

One lurker, one scummy, one newbie, and one who at first glance posts like a newbie townie. Interesting.

Spoiler: Response to Taly's post 128

Yeah it's been a whole day and he's been active elsewhere so I'm voteparking this until/unless something convinces me otherwise.

VOTE: Creature

Really? You're just going to sit on a vote without in-game information?

Odd.

Yeah, that's what I said.

doomfeathers

, what was the purpose of 29 and 30? You were talking about what you believe people are doing, but you didn't attach reads or questions to that.

Irritation, mostly. I see no motivation for lurking beyond purposely making it hard for others to read you, so when more people do it than we could possibly have on the scumteam, it kind of ticks me off. It seems as though townies are purposely acting scummy so they can get away with doing it sometime when they're playing scum.

Besides, that early in the game, there's not much to judge. Now, on the other hand, we have three pages' worth of content, so patterns begin to become more apparent.

Yeah, I get that few posts can be a scumtell, but it's only the second day since the game began.

As opposed to what, voting randomly? No offense, but I'll take stupid reasoning over no reasoning any day.

Taly seriously leans town if he comes through with game results. I don't think scum would go to that much effort.

Nevermind. I don't need towncred-permission to look into something.

Wasn't talking to you. If I had thought you were trying to score towncred, I wouldn't have counted it.

~~ Also, I don't quite get the coaching from

doomfeaters

for

Shadpearl

in this entire post. I assume

Shadpearl

knows how to play?

This is in fact his first game on the site unless he's an alt. He didn't do a newbie game first, and didn't know how to vote.

Ugh. I hate all four wagons.

Players who have caught my notice:

Ausuka: Flies under the radar, but when she posts, it's got content. Town lean.

Almost50: Has been tunneling an inactive player, and lurking with semi-goofy posts like I've seen him do as scum--and he was scary good. Scum lean.

Lalendra: Play looks a little simplistic, but I'm not seeing scum motivations yet. Null-town.

Kopherald: Whatever they are, they're intimidating. I'll give them a slight town lean for now. Does anyone know how the leocrotta to read hydras?

profii: Play is about consistent with his account age, and he and I came to the same approximate conclusions about Shadpearl independently. Town lean.

Sando: He's been pinging my gut something awful. I can't wait until he gets back so I can find out whether my gut is right this time. No read yet.

havingfitz: I've seen him play as scum, and [points finger at screen like The Joker]. He's V/LA, yes, but you can tell the difference by what he posts when he does post. He's dodging attention.

VOTE: havingfitz

This post comes out of left field. You state that you dislike all the wagons, but you jump on the one person who is VLA,

instead of going for your scumreads.

Last time I played with him he was V/LA for half the game as I remember. Besides, he seemed able to respond.

What makes this worse is this:

Isn't it a bit too early to say that on Page1? Plenty of players had posted nothing.

I mean not like page2 is much "better" (worse?)...

Yes, in fact, page 2 is far better than page 1 in terms of content. We're not in RVS anymore.

I'm now suspicious of Sando, but I'll save it until he's no longer V/LA.

Why didn't you vote for

Sando

with the same logic?

For the same reason I didn't support Creature's wagon: We weren't going to get either a lynch or a response with that.

Ugh. I hate all four wagons.

You hate all four wagons, but you don't comment on Anienen (Pigeonman). Please explain.

-Brass

I don't think there's any good reason to wagon him; he hasn't looked particularly scummy that I remember, and his votes were just leftover RVS. I can examine him if you wish.

Why not

JUST

examine him like someone who's trying to solve the game?

It's a large. There are a lot of people to consider. Besides, I had just finished a very long session of reviewing the game and needed to get back to other things.

The V/LA argument is actually a good point, though not conclusive. I'll switch my vote for now, and keep you on my suspicious list until I see more.

VOTE: Almost50

So, the moment 'your wagon person' tells you a flaw in your vote, you change it and finally cast it on your active scumread, but with NO other prompt or reasoning.

Well, yeah. I'm a logical guy. Almost50 and havingfitz were pretty near each other on my scumreads list; I had had to decide between the two of them for my vote. Havingfitz' point was just enough to bump him below Almost50.

Almost50 hasn't even thrown suspicion on anyone who has posted, and seems to have purposely avoided posting. He's scummy; let's wagon him.

Pedit: Okay, so Creature isn't inactive anymore. My point still stands.

'Nother pedit: Sorry, I got my games mixed up then. I wasn't really engaged that game.

I'm sorry, I'm not a huge fan of

Almost50's

post either, but MOST of his posts have thrown suspicion, primarily onto

Creature

, his meta-scumread.

And what about your point on

Creature

still stands?

It sounds to me like you know more than what you're saying.

Exactly. Creature wasn't active when Almost50's accusations were made. He'd spent the whole game up to that point wagoning a guy who wasn't even playing yet. Creature posted before I submitted the post (and thus was no longer inactive), but that didn't change Almost50's behavior.

Doomfeathers

is a noob... even though he's been here since 2016?

Well, he's not completely wrong. I've played maybe half a dozen games hear total, and the most recent before this was over a year ago.

Official Vote Count 1.2

Creature (4) - Sando, Almost50, Shadpearl, Lalendra

doomfeathers (3) - Ausuka, Aneninen, profii
Shadpearl (2) - Kopherald, havingfitz
Almost50 (2) - doomfeathers, Creature
Aneninen (1) - Taly
texcat (1) - JaydragonKing
Lalendra (1) - texcat


Not Voting (2) - TheGoldenParadox, blockcandy

With 16 alive it takes 9 to lynch.

I don't trust the people on

Creature's

wagon. It looks like he has been setup as an easy and early lynch target with all the "meta-scum" reads.

Agreed.

Taly screams town, by the way.

[doomfeathers]

doom is more or less a noob. He also has something on me (because in the game he linked I was his scum p and I went on to win that game despite him having been lynched on D1, so he could be paranoid). However, I don't see why he jumped to defend Creature before even Creature had posted, given that my meta argument was accurate and supported by many others (doom may not know Creature's meta himself,

but when several players back the argument up it must be true

).

I'd suggest that meta is one of the things you shouldnt apply that logic to as it is highly prone to manipulation.

Profii, how do you read Almost50? Would you consider joining his wagon?

doom himself says he hasn't played for a long time and has linked the last game he played here. Go check how long it was since then, and note that it was a Newbie game.
5-b- OPr you could've just clicked his profile to see he has 695 posts overall, and 14 of those were made in THIS game (plus at least one in the signup thread). and 66 in the game he linked (in which he was lynched on DAY ONE), and you would have deduced he couldn't have played more than 3-4 games at best (unless he gets lynched on D1 EVERYTIME!)

I was playing as SE. Also, a few of the earlier games I have played seem to have been deleted from the site; I'm not sure why.

Sando enters with some very logical points in post 133. I rather lean him town.

[davesaz]

Official Vote Count 1.3

Almost50 (5) - doomfeathers, Sando, TheGoldenParadox, Shadpearl, Lalendra
TheGoldenParadox (4) - JaydragonKing, Kopherald, Ausuka, Creature
doomfeathers (2) - Aneninen, Taly
Lalendra (2) - texcat, profii
Shadpearl (1) - havingfitz
Creature (1) - Almost50

Not Voting (1) - JimmyUrineMoneyShot

With 16 alive it takes 9 to lynch.

(expired on 2018-03-19 22:00:00)

[JaydragonKing]

... I legit thought there was supposed to be 20 of us instead of 16.

[doomfeathers]

I don't like that I voted

Doomfeathers

, and yet there's suddenly 3 votes against

Almost50

when he tries to discredit my reasons.

(Sando, Shadpearl, and TheGoldenParadox)

I can't stay without any flips yet, but I feel like someone is either bussing, dismantling

doomfeathers'

wagon, or playing opportunistically here.

That is actually a fair point. If someone is being opportunistic, I think it's probably Paradox; he's been lurking, and not in a very townie way from what I've seen, whereas I have townreads on Sando and Shadpearl.

Pedit: Okay, there's a large wagon on Paradox, so I'm guessing someone already thought of that.

[doomfeathers]

TGP, A50 and doomfeathers are clearly on the same level on this list.

Paradox wasn't, and I usually assume scumreads are in order one way or the other myself. :shrug:

TheGoldenParadox (Potential Scum)

- Quick vote and associative tell once

Almost50's

wagon gained momentum... after I line-by-lined him and voted

Doomfeathers

. 128 and 135 This was his second post in the game. 139 So I don't know how he came to that conclusion.

Doomfeathers (Scum)

- Overcautious posts Inconsistent reasons of voting, quick votes on wagons. Explains when it isn't necessary. Scumread but not voted on by other scumread.
My ISO on him elaborates on all of this.

Almost50 (Scum)

- Tunnels

Creature

for out-game reasons. Little explanaton of push, and falsely accuses me when my view doesn't align with his. AtE at some points. Has not done anything other than a PL on

Creature

. Misrepped me once. Associates

Doomfeathers

and

Creature

... but then associated me with

Creature

the moment he gets any pushback.
My scumread on him was reinforced in his 130

[Kopherald]

TGP, A50 and doomfeathers are clearly on the same level on this list.

Paradox wasn't, and I usually assume scumreads are in order one way or the other myself. :shrug:

TheGoldenParadox (Potential Scum)

- Quick vote and associative tell once

Almost50's

wagon gained momentum... after I line-by-lined him and voted

Doomfeathers

. 128 and 135 This was his second post in the game. 139 So I don't know how he came to that conclusion.

Doomfeathers (Scum)

- Overcautious posts Inconsistent reasons of voting, quick votes on wagons. Explains when it isn't necessary. Scumread but not voted on by other scumread.
My ISO on him elaborates on all of this.

Almost50 (Scum)

- Tunnels

Creature

for out-game reasons. Little explanaton of push, and falsely accuses me when my view doesn't align with his. AtE at some points. Has not done anything other than a PL on

Creature

. Misrepped me once. Associates

Doomfeathers

and

Creature

... but then associated me with

Creature

the moment he gets any pushback.
My scumread on him was reinforced in his 130

That should have been "@TGP, A50 and doomfeathers are clearly on the same level on the list"

I did not realize until now it was unclear.

-Brass

[Almost50]

I was playing as SE

SE doesn't mean shot. All you have to do is complete 2 games and you're SE. How many games did you play outside the Road to Rome though?

[doomfeathers]

I was playing as SE

SE doesn't mean shot. All you have to do is complete 2 games and you're SE. How many games did you play outside the Road to Rome though?

At least two before this one. My point is that my record is more like five or six games than three or four.

I've just spent two hours reviewing this game. I've got to get some schoolwork done; I'll get back to it later. I'm caught up to post 163.