In post 824, teacher wrote:.I had thought it several times. But I couldnt write it -- It wouldnt have been believable coming from me, when Brie and Kill have both scummed me (and Northside underlined that). But you nailed it, including down to the strength of the reads. And theres more in each column. Ill try to be brief. But I will suggest and
VOTE: Kill as I think it is far more informative than just Brie.
Kill + Brie
Kill has an largely unexplained hunger for Brie's blood. Only once (despite today's promise) has ever articulated any reasons besides the entrance, and those reasons (
505) are just plain lies. It accuses "him" of pushing "villagers" and being on "wagons." But Brie's then-current vote dated from RVS (
19), she had already towned that vote (
196) and she STILL has not pushed anyone else, with no scum reads (
640). Just as Bizarrely, brie TWICE towns Kill
as having good analysis
(while he was hunting her), only to be forced to say TWICE she was full of shit when pressed. (See the top of my (
621) for the summary.
KTS + Fumuki
This is the most troubling part of Fumuki's behavior. Not only does he derail the KTS wagon, but does so when his reasons for joining remained facially valid. (see
440,
441). Moreover, his explanation for trying to steer to Hiraki is that it provides info on Kill; but he argues Kill doesnt provide info on Hiraki -- such a one way rachet is implausible, especially if the read is based on how scum would play together (
741,
742). Fumuki gives his reasoning in the second links above, but I dont buy them. By the way, given the Kill-Brie above, I have no idea how Fumuki can plausibly suggest Hiraki (someone he accuses for LURKING) has "more associatives" than KTS -- Fumuki making contradictory arguments from a supposedly close-reading player. On the reverse side, KTS pretty routinely towns Fumuki without reasons, only changing during what could well have been a staged fight.
Fumuki + Brie
Fumuki contradicts himself about his Brie vote. As CFJ notes, he answers my first question about being third on a bus by explaining that it is for "pressure" but
not
"in hope of lynching." ((
195). But I ask him about it when he does it again (on creature now). And then he says that he "certainly ain't out of intent" to lynch (
441). So which is it -- Third votes are to lynch, or arent they? Certainly they dont seem to be, Fumuki ensures his own quick exit once wagons gain traction. (
206 - first to exit the first Brie wagon;
427 - first to e,xit the Kill wagon right after L-2, first to exit the creature wagon IIRC). And he is openly and honestly trying to stall any and all Second Brie Wagon, with the logic that she is scum who can be nabbed later?!
******
Of course, I also agree with your comment that this may be "carried away." I mean, how likely is it that 75% of the scum are in the top half of the activity? And how likely is it that scum Actively busses a teammate by pointing out the first contradiction (as Fumuki did to Brie). I also do buy some portion of Fumuki's case on Northside. For example, I believe our mod and player are the same (
204). The Mod has been active enough to put "-" on most pagebottoms. Thus, the player's explanation that they havent caught up and just magically appeared when suspected (
773) seems staged. It also places them in a place to try to missteer me to someone I suggested (BBT), while also undermining me by sussing --
776.
Bottom line, I think this setup encourages 2 lurkers and 2 active misdirectors. I see that potential team entirely as named in this post. But I can also see a team involving CFJ, CJ, and some of the totally empty slots. I dont want to kill Fumuki for the same reasons Im not interested in CFJ - active, detailed posting helps town even if it comes from scum, because it offers information (most of this and CFJ's post are based on Fumuki). The best lynch on the board I see is Kill. It can entirely derail this theory or potentially validate it. It provides the most associative data (Brie, Fumuki, Hiraki), plus has the added policy benefit of getting rid of a style I find personally annoying. Hence the vote above. I am equally comfortable lynching Brie (theres a wagon there already), and potentially open to Northside.
Id like for the empty spots to be more active before a lynch occurs, which is why I hopped off the wagon. I hope the wagon will switch to Kill if they find this convincing. But I also hope we force info from those slots before night comes, so dont want to advance to L-2 without getting reactions from Creature, AD, BBT, and Arch.
PEDIT: @ Fumuki - you said "Do you seriously think that scum isn't manipulating things here?" The only people trying to actively steer are Kill, you, me, and CFJ, in that order. IF scum is active and you know your orientation (and have townleaned me), its 50/50 Kill or CFJ. So why not Kill?
