Open 722: Red Flag [Endgame]

[Fumuki]

Now compare these guys vote to CJ putting Brie in L-1 twice and teacher voting and getting traction to Brie wagon in L-3 or L-2 twice as well. Who is the most suspicious guys here?

Why the hell teacher and CJ would want so much to lynch their scum buddy without even gaining reputation like KTS did?

It makes no goddamn sense. It's honestly underestimating these players thinking that the chances of they doing such a bad play are likely.

[callforjudgement]

OK, so what's bothering me here…

You're arguing (quite strongly) against a theory that scum!Fumuki implies scum!CJ, scum!teacher.
If you're not actually scum (and thus the premise of the theory is incorrect), what's the point of arguing about it? It's not going to have any effect in that case.


PEDIT: I mentioned earlier that I would have been very suspicious of BBT if my theory about the scum trio was consistent with the flips, as he seemed to be trying to derail the lynch wagons on people I suspected onto CJ, and also to trying to defend people I suspected. However, that mostly dependent on associations, which now seem to be wrong. I'd still be open for discussing the case on BBT, though, if you care to make it (and I might make it myself later but there's a limit to how much time I can spend on this game).

I was also looking into ActionDan and northsidestory along similar reasoning to yours, but didn't come to any conclusive conclusions.

[Fumuki]

OK, so what's bothering me here…

You're arguing (quite strongly) against a theory that scum!Fumuki implies scum!CJ, scum!teacher.

Men, you're saying that it's probably of CJ, me and teacher being a scum team when it doesn't make goddamn good sense. It's hilarious bad how our plans were, like, in d1 to distance ourselves we all made case against our own team and only I supposedly gained any reputation (If I gained, that is)? Plus, we supposedly got one of our buddies lynched in d1 without any huges benefits (and now we would be totally in disadvantage since with one more lynch it's a town win).

How do you want me to go along with these assumptions? If you want to label me, teacher and CJ as a team whatever, by lynching teacher or CJ I lose too anyway? Go ahead and lynch them. Whatever.

I'm just trying to open your eyes that you're trying to create narratives that doesn't fit and is ignoring obvious contradictions to try making sense out of your theory.

You're trying to fit a theory in the players and not trying to fit the players in a theory. CJ, teacher or me needs to be scum because you're suspect of us, then you go ahead and try to find some sense in us all being a team instead of looking at the game as a whole and trying to understand what is happening.

It's frustrating. You ignore the obvious holes and try to push the part you think it's reasonable. Like, for example, thinking it's weird for me to argue against labeling myself with them when your theory is dubious.

[callforjudgement]

I'm just trying to find connections, which can help guide which wagons we should be pushing. For example, if we decided that scum!you implied scum!CJ, that'd be a really good reason to lynch CJ if we were planning to find you.

This isn't something I expected you to be arguing against, so I'm trying to figure out why.

[Fumuki]

I'm arguing against it so nervously because you guys aren't realizing the obvious strategy that's probably being executed by some players pushing CJ and teacher with a night kill on KTS, when as a whole CJ and teacher actions are completely horrible if they were to be partners with Brie.

I'm not saying to town read them, but they already are cornered and their case is dubious, isn't it better to look around for something that seems more reasonable like a night kill on KTS to mislynch certain players? Plus, coincidentally the push against these players being done by people that didn't bother themselves to make Brie wagon gain traction or anything?

And instead, wanted to lynch CJ in d1 over Brie?

[Fumuki]

*sighs*

Dunno.

Just please promise that after lynching teacher or CJ today, if there's a tomorrow, town lynchs BBT and if BBT doesn't flips, Arch.

[teacher]

Im on vacation, so not going to take any time to analyze. I will provide that Monday afternoon. For now, I'll just respond to those suspecting me:

• I made an independent scumcase on Brie AFTER voting her, 621. I stayed on for hundreds of pages. Indeed,.....
  
• I left her at L-1 for two hours after CJ voted, before shifting to Kill. I shifted because I thought Kill offered more information, as I explained 824 and others agreed. I remained explicitly willing to vote Brie at this point.
  
• Once the board made clear that Kill would not be a compromise lynch, I went to Fumuki. 1026 Why? Because the board also made clear that Fumuki was the most likely compromise lynch in my suspect pool (Kill, Fumuki, Brie). Nobody had expressed interest in Brie.
  
• I provided the L-1 vote on Brie when it was a flashwagon. I don't see Scum!me doing that.

Im town. Im also derpy from my team theory. But even if you dont accept the team theory, look at my actions from its perspective, and they make sense. I certainly dont see how they are more suspect that Fumuki's try anything efforts to avert the Brie wagon, only to change when it became apparent that he would be the other option. (No, Im not calling for a Fumuki vote here. I need to go over D1 with the flip knowledge before I make any case on any one.) VOTE: unvote.

@BBT - like I said, I get why Im sus. But can you now answer the repeated requests for your early Fumuki case that you would not share?

[teacher]

@BBT: I think the question you asked (Im not sure) is why I think I'm sus. I think it is because I took the hammer off of Brie 2.5 hours after it appeared, and then argued more in favor of Kill/Fumuki than Brie. The reason I did that was that Brie's ISO at that point was fairly empty, other than the fact that she could not explain her repeat pocketing of Kill. I thought the case on Kill provided more info while still lynching within the same team (tied together by Fumuki). I moved off Kill to Fumuki based on board preferences (what I took from Arch's 980). I always remained willing to lynch her and did so as a flashwagon once it became clear she could be the consensus.

One other note. I still need to analyze D1, but I think CeeJay's putting Brie at L-1 in the 800s and L-2 in the flashwagon basically clears him. Yes, I realize Im clearing your alt to me. Which makes you think we are a scum team. But it is giving me the same thoughts about you: That you and Fumuki are maf having planned your night kill to cause a (CeeJay or Me) mislynch to distract from Fumuki's efforts to clear Brie today, and that your start of D1 unexplained case on Fumuki was theatrical distancing. So Im inclined to vote either of you. But I am not going to actually do so before analyzing the game.

[callforjudgement]

@

teacher

: What do you make of Fumuki's #1060?

[northsidegal]

Votecount 2.2

teacher (3):

BlueBloodedToffee 1117, Creature 1204, Archwing 1207

Fumuki (1):

Hiraki 1121

Not voting (6):

pisskop, ActionDan, northsidestory, callforjudgement, ceejayvinoya 1127, Fumuki 1192, teacher 1232

With 11 alive, it’s 6 to lynch. The Day Two deadline is in (expired on 2018-05-10 05:50:59).

[teacher]

@

teacher

: What do you make of Fumuki's #1060?

I need to think on it. Right now, without self-checking across posts, I cant make much of it.

Scum!Fumuki thinks that if he flips Mafia, the town is going to KTS next (I probably would have, but could certainly have been talked to Brie). So he knows his death buys 2 night kills and a mislynch?

Town!Fumuki this he has solved the game. But he clearly hasn't - Kill is town, and I am too. If town, its an oddplay to seek a mislynch, and one I know now should make me doubt all of his reads.

When I actually get back and analyze the game, I know Im going to be looking mostly into Fumuki, BBT, NorthSide and Creature because I am not sure what to make of any of their play. Id still really like to know BBT's early Fumuki case.

[teacher]

MOD - VC is wrong. I unvoted. 1231. Offline now til Monday.

[teacher]

MOD - VC is wrong. I unvoted. 1231.

Offline now til Monday.[/quote]

[northsidegal]

MOD - VC is wrong. I unvoted. 1231.

Offline now til Monday.

Fixed. It helps me to notice votes more easily if they're on a line of their own or at the beginning of a line.

[callforjudgement]

Scum!Fumuki thinks that if he flips Mafia, the town is going to KTS next (I probably would have, but could certainly have been talked to Brie). So he knows his death buys 2 night kills and a mislynch?

Oh, duh, I hadn't thought of that. If Fumuki gets lynched and flips scum, people aren't going to think much of his plan, so they probably wouldn't move onto TheBrie automatically.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Fumuki, you're completely misunderstanding scum's motivation for being on the Brie wagon.

They don't want to lynch Brie, right? BUT, if Brie is lynched they NEED to be on that wagon, right? Because Brie was so widely scum read, scum would have to be on that wagon because if they scum read her but didn't find a way onto the wagon at end of day, that would look suspect, no?

So, how do you do that? Well, you say you're willing to lynch Brie and join AFTER the wagon has built up to secure your place on it. Which both teacher and CJ did on a number of occasions I believe.

As soon as an alternative wagon popped up, they jump off Brie and begin pushing that instead. When I'm on my laptop, I'll grab some quotes etc.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Teacher, when you get back I have another question for you (but everyone can look into it if they like);

Show me CJs read progression on Brie - show me where he has built up enough information/evidence that Brie is scum to justify his dangerous position on both wagons (because CJ, as town, would have to have a particularly strong read, right?)

Show me his read progression. Because, to me, it just looks like scum who are desperate to be on a scum wagon that they know is going to lynch.

You don't think the entire scum team knew Brie was fucked? Of course they did, which is why they jumped on the wagon each time.

[Hiraki]

Vote: Fumiki

Hiraki, have a look at 1026 and then 1027 and tell me how this fits in with Fumuki being scum please.

I also find it mildly amusing that scum have day talk and these posts are 10 minutes apart.

*sighs*

The more I think about it the more I realize that with KTS dead there's no "bigger plan" probably...

*sighs*

If there was busing, it was mainly because they

shitted themselves

with the thought of being associated with Brie or the scum team is simply lurking and a hammer vote doesn't clear anyone suspicious (not that I think BBT is scum as of

now

, but a hammer vote at that hopeless case doesn't clear anyone).

*sighs*

Scum team, you do realize that in either case (lurkers or bussing) it's better for you guys get

desperate

, you know? I can't believe it however scum apparently

easily

did let Brie be lynched in d1 in

Red Flag

. That's the worst case scenario ever for mafia in this setup. You

never

should have let it be like that.

In my vision town almost already has this game on the pocket. Or you buss with a bigger plan here, or you don't buss. No mid-term.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

That makes 0 sense.

Thanks for not answering the question.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Incoming post on why teacher is scum. I realised whilst writing this that it was gonna be way too long and so I'm gonna try and break it down into sections.

Teacher read progression on Brie

The first post that pinged me from teacher was his reads-list (324). The primary reason it pinged me was because he stopped suspecting CJ based off of his 208, which I thought was an awful post from CJ. Secondary to this, (and this is more important knowing Brie's flip but was still suspicious before it) he begins the post saying he needs more from Brie, Wguerts and PK - then votes PK for 'pressure'. If he was looking to apply pressure, then surely a vote on the leading wagon (Brie) makes the most sense of all? Why choose PK over Brie (is a single vote going to apply pressure?)

389 - He says that KTS vs Brie is TvT? I'm sorry, what? Where on earth did this come from given that in 324 he stated that he 'needed more from Brie'. Take a look at Brie's posts between teacher's 324 and 389 and tell me how on earth teacher developed a town read on Brie (teacher you can answer this if you like). Brie's posts were damn awful. In fact, take a look at all of Brie's posts up until this point and tell me how on earth anyone could formulate a town read on Brie. I'll wait.

397 Important post. Teacher claims that he has reread Brie's ISO and it wasn't as empty as he remembered (again, as above, Brie town read is implausible IMO). However, he uses this reason to completely 180 on his town read on KTS and place him at L-2. How convenient.

464 Teacher is now back to null on Brie. This is important because his read is shifting on Brie a lot but only when it suits the narrative he is pushing. Brie had to be town for him to push back on KTS, now that he is pushing Fumuki, he can drop the fake Brie town read that he cannot justify and put them back at null (great place for a scum buddy, right?) There are so many contradictions in this post alone - he calls Brie 'null', 'slight town' and 'TvT' when referring to her and KTS' discussion. It's a very non-committal read on an important player in the game IMO.

545,610,621 I have linked these three posts together because I believe it shows a scum mindset from teacher thinking that Brie is fucked and he needs to get on that wagon. In 545, he states that Fumuki 'busted' Brie. The wording is so important, he thinks Brie has been busted, in other words, he thinks she is gonna be lynched. Now, if he thinks Brie is fucked, he has to make sure he can get himself on that wagon. But he will have to justify joining it after producing wishy-washy reads on Brie all game.

In 610, he joins the Brie wagon. CFJ moves from Creature to Brie (which signifies a shift in where the votes are going and leading wagons) and teacher shortly follows. After this, he posts 621 to justify his position on the wagon. LOOK AT ALL THE REASONS HE PROPOSES FOR WHY BRIE IS SCUM! Why didn't he mention any of this before when he was town reading her? Why have they all only come to the surface now? He knows Brie is fucked, he wants to be on that wagon, and so he throws her under the bus.

562 Side note - teacher places Creature above Brie despite thinking Fumuki 'busted' Brie. Classic scum - FoS buddy (Brie) but vote town!Creature.

649 Two very clear attempts to show he is willing to leave the Brie wagon if she shows any sort of defence to the accusations.

818 Leaves the Brie wagon (at L-1) to join the KTS wagon (Brie's biggest pusher). Even though in the post he states he is 'equally comfortable lynching Brie as he is KTS'. If that is the case, why leave the bigger wagon. Actions speak louder than words. It's even worse that it's based on the premise that both KTS and Brie were scum - absolutely laughable. But with the support of CFJ, he felt comfortable enough to push it (without putting his own neck on the line).

866 He wants to lynch between Fumuki and KTS. Brie is off the table and he explicitly states this.

977 Again, reiterates his desire to lynch KTS/Fumuki over Brie

984 And again. Despite his case in 621, which teacher is trying to point to as evidence for why he is town, he has completely disregarded it at this point to focus entirely on KTS/Fumuki.

1026 Tries to present a false situation that a Brie wagon is no longer a viable wagon (it was a viable wagon all damn day) and also that scum 'MUST' be driving one of the wagons on either Fumuki or CJ. Says it's between CJ and Fumuki for the lynch (and conveniently rules out a CJ wagon because his 'scumreads' are pushing it.)

1101 His final attempt to redirect towards KTS or Fumuki as opposed to Brie and CJ. Claims CJ wagon is dead (it wasn't, only one vote behind other two) and says Brie wagon is fuill of lurker votes.

I hope that makes it clear that teacher is scum. TL:DR coming soon.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

TL;DR

Teacher's read early game on Brie fluctuated wildly depending on the narrative he was trying to push. He goes from;

[*] needing more from Brie (but voting someone else despite Brie having the larger wagon)
[*] Brie is TvT with KTS
[*] Teacher stops pushing KTS and so Brie goes from town back to null
[*] Calls Brie 'null, slight town and TvT' all in a single post. Non committal read on an important player

Mid-end game read;

[*] Teacher thinks Brie is fucked - begins prep to get himself on her wagon. Votes and then present a load of reasons to scum read Brie out of the blue
[*] Places Creature above Brie in his scum reads (classic scum - FoS buddy [Brie] but vote town!Creature)
[*] Shows he is willing to leave Brie wagon if she produces any sort of a defence
[*] Leaves Brie wagon to push KTS. Says he is equally comfortable lynching both (but leaves the larger wagon [Brie] to push on KTS)
[*] States in three separate posts that Brie is off the table and the lynch is between KTS and Fumuki
[*] Tries to steer away from a Brie wagon and towards KTS/Fumuki on multiple occasions.

That is all.

Votes on teacher please.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

I also have other reasons for scum reading teacher outside of his read progression on Brie but I'm hoping I really don't have to post anymore.

This should be enough to win the game. Let's go.

[callforjudgement]

@

BBT

: Read on Hiraki? (I'll explain the question after the answer; let's just say that this is material in my decision as to whether to vote teacher.)

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Hiraki could easily be scum but I have put little effort into finding the 4th.

We only need two and I don't believe we need another day lynching inside of teacher/CJ.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

I was leaning town on Hiraki during Day One but his start to D2 has been nothing short of shocking and something I would expect from Scum!Hiraki in this situation.