Open 723: Purgatory! (Hell Phase 3)

[ruru]

Lastly - with only VT and Goons, is there any claim options people are aware of? I am excited to play the game but I am at a loss regarding like.... how to approach it.

I had a nice plan to claim vanilla villager on day 1 if I rolled scum

Now I'm not quite sure what to do

[ruru]

Anyway, I received my role card and factional PT link. If I don't post much here, it's probably because I'm discussing strategy with the other milling masons

[ruru]

Jeez

You even added the villainous grin, eh?

Was that a true story?

If you're referring to my first two games offsite, it was totally a true story (actually, I forgot whether I rolled scum the first or second game, so I made up the order. The rest of it is true. My first game on-site involved trying to tell the objective truth as much as I possibly could because I was already super uncomfortable being scum)

Those were a bit different though. This time I'm claiming a town power role

N_M can you check the mason thread please?

[ruru]

It would probably depend on whether or not you believe my milling mason claim, and whether or not you interpret it as a de facto scum claim

Personally I think it's pretty believable

[ruru]

I have daychat with the other masons, and I investigate (and in this setup flip) as anti-town

Does anyone counterclaim milling mason? Aside from N_M and the other two masons, who also know that I'm a mason.

[ruru]

In other news, I've found out by simulation that everyone self-voting to accomplish provably random lynches does not result in a positive town winrate

It might be worth trying on later days if we reach a point where the scum:town ratio is too high though

The only issue is if there are too many miller claims, then we won't know the ratio. That's why I want all the millers to claim now

[ruru]

Although it's worth noting that it only takes one scum to quickhammer with plurality lynch

[ruru]

I didn't say anything of the sort

Paraphase of posts in the mason PT:

1. N_M:

Just kidding, N_M isn't reading the PT

1. ruru: Wait what's happening
2. ruru: Is this some kind of bastard mod setup? I thought those weren't allowed in open queue on this site
3. ruru: Well anyway this should be interesting
4. ruru: Are the rest of you also millers, or just vanilla masons?
<silence>

[ruru]

VOTE: UglyDuck

[ruru]

gdfgdfghcxbvbvcxd9dtr0y9eryopc';werawerw4;2342[6trc'gd

I am caught

Wait no, I'm a milling mason. Put me at L-1 and I'll self hammer and prove it to you by flipping red!

[ruru]

If it ever got to the point where we were at a disadvantage to skum, wouldn't we want o continue playing in a way that generates the most info, as the most likely course will be the fairy town people deciding for us in the end game?2

I'm not so sure about this. If we get to Judgement Day, it's lylo two days in a row and our winrate is already awful

If anything, I feel like we should be intentionally sending town players who are likely to make poor decisions to heaven. The regular lynch votes are still way more important

[ruru]

If we get to Judgement Day, it's lylo two days in a row and our winrate is already awful

Oh, I guess this is a lie. It's lylo into lynch-or-judgement-day

I still think playing around Judgement Day would be super gamelosing

[ruru]

I think my fellow mason Not_Mafia is a perfect candidate for the d2 lynch, because he is confirmed town but will probably act anti-town, for example by not reading the mason thread

[ruru]

Town Mason: N_M, NSG
Town: Oxy
Not a mason: RC
Not town: UD

[ruru]

I don't like this post

also Oxy vs RC is not SvS

What's your role?

[ruru]

VOTE: UglyDuck

[ruru]

VOTE: ruru

Send ruru+N_M to hell and we win. Simple.

Oh, behave

[ruru]

why are you even asking me ruru. every player will claim VT.
VOTE: ruru

What's your role?

[ruru]

I am trying to count the millers so that after you mislynch me and we end up with a high concentration of scum, town can accurately implement the self-vote random voting strategy

[ruru]

I would quote my role pm, but it's against the rules

[ruru]

Okay, vanilla town

What makes you think I'm not scum with UD?

Why am I scummy? Why is UD scummy?

[ruru]

Why would scum ask all millers to claim?

[ruru]

Why wouldn't scum teammates post in a way that seems separate?

[ruru]

1. ruru: Hi everyone! I'm a known gamethrower so you should probably bus me d1
2. ruru: BTW, I'm claiming milling mason
3. UD: What's a milling mason?
4. ruru: Ask me in the thread and then scumread me for it!

Does this seem unlikely to you?

[ruru]

@ruru: What exactly are you brewing talking about bloody Millers?

Are you claiming not-miller?

[ruru]

Are you trying to mess with my head?

What's your role?

[ruru]

in the meantime @ruru why are you talking about millers

Isn't it obvious?

[ruru]

Mason: N_M
Town: Oxy, Invisibility
Scum: UD, RC
Scum mason: NSG

[ruru]

I'm guessing AP is a miller, but he's afraid to share because it would get him scumread

[ruru]

at this point RuRu seems as plainly town as they were in (while only one game) the other game I played with them.

What makes you think this now?

What do you think about the d2 lynch / JD strategy?

[ruru]

Well, this implies you were scumreading me

Super early, but this seems almost like the plant of an idea to be looked back on later from RuRu.

paraphrase of the probable skum PT:

Ruru: I will make a bunch of bs jokes and then try to start a wagon on UD.

[ruru]

In 63 your point of view is that we should be playing in the way that's highest-information (in order to benefit heaven's decision-making), rather than considering provably random voting when scum are too many

I was asking whether you think it's worth minmaxing for JD in general, because personally I think the best heaven candidate is someone who is town, but will likely vote ~randomly or be manipulated by scum, to take them out of the regular votepool

[ruru]

What made you change your mind on my alignment?

[ruru]

The Oxy push was weird to me

Oxy shouldn't have me on their radar: I've been gone for 3 months then was only back for like a few months before then. Someone told them about me in scum PT.

For example I know RC's reputation because I read 1851 during 1859, and I'm as new as Oxy. I'm surprised RC finds it notable

I find 95 ever so slightly scummy in some bayesian sense because I'm not sure if I believe the logic behind it, but if I were scum with RC, agreeing with him anyway is exactly what I would do

I think voting with me on UD without interacting at all with my role claim is weird

And there's no way the setup is balanced if all 4 masons are town

(Also this doesn't make your slot scummier but lynching RC is +EV by default)

[ruru]

So umm, is there something I'm missing or can RC just make an anonymous alt like anyone else?

But yeah I don't understand why playing to win is everyone else's problem.

For the record RC, I really look up to your scum winrate and plan to like study all your games at some point. I don't have anything personal against you (especially not if you're making those posts for an in-game reason), although your posts toward me felt a bit like a personal attack

[ruru]

2) The discussion of provably random voting that isn't actually implementable (that's not how vote ties are broken)

Oh, whoops. I've always seen plurality lynches tiebroken randomly

[ruru]

Let's say we were at 4:3

It's very difficult to lynch scum, even though there are so many of them. Sacrificing one town for the sake of VCA seems questionable to me at this point. If relying on VCA, there is probably at least one misled town / one scum voting with the town bloc who won't get caught

I think it could be better to random lynch here, because I suspect town's winrate by continuing to play normally is even worse

[ruru]

Sacrificing one town for the sake of VCA seems questionable to me at this point.

Actually, I just realized there's an upside to lynching town here, which is that it prevents a 4:2 heaven phase (which, in this example, is an instant loss if scum are lynched). I guess we want to avoid heaven phases when possible. Hmm

[ruru]

I'm actually crazy, no scum went to heaven

Never mind the above as well

[ruru]

Yes, I wasn't thinking of specific situations until now. I just generally observed that there are a lot of scum in the setup, and I thought random voting was possible and potentially useful

[ruru]

Also I wonder if using the heaven lynch more like a cop check is reasonable (unless/until 1 scum gets to heaven)

[ruru]

Like I think something's wrong in my assumptions

Either JD is not as bad as I think it is or lynching probtown d2 is wrong or the setup is scum-sided and we basically have to lynch scum today

[ruru]

I'm simulating 43% win if the d2 lynch is always town and 38% if the d2 lynch is always scum

This is under random voting assumptions and doesn't account for the ability of town to likely have at least one pretty reliable townread to send to heaven should one scum get there (although again, high concentration of scum could make this harder)

So, in real life, the numbers are probably even more close. I'm thinking the alignment of the d2 lynch actually doesn't matter that much? So using it as a cop check might actually be good

[ruru]

Okay, I'm comfortable town binning ruru.

@ruru That situation does bring up an interesting point, though. Thoughts on the following?

If we end up in 4:3, meaning 1 town in heaven and 1 in hell, and we mislynch, we will be at 3:3 JD with 1 town in heaven.

In that scenario, it's up to that single player to correctly scum hunt.

If we mislynch today, I think we should try to send the best scum hunter to heaven, presuming we aren't strongly town reading them.

Candidates include: AP, NM (if a town tell for nm is having good reads, he must be a decent scum hunter), and... NSG/RC

Mm, "unlikely to be listened to but likely to vote well if town" also seems good to me, and probably has a lot of overlap with a player that we just want to flip

[ruru]

What is JD?

Judgement Day

[ruru]

Oh wow, interesting

I think we're going to need a rules clarification

[ruru]

I want to be able to play with friends and trying to play games anonymously defeats the purpose of playing with friends.

It's not a question of whose problem it is the simple fact that it badly hurts my ability to focus as town and makes the game not fun for me.

I don't want to play with people whose approach to my slot is to treat me like a ticking time bomb regardless of what I do and I don't have the option of avoiding them because so many times the people who end up doing that are people who I have no experience with and have never met before who got that approach to my slot secondhand from other people.

I don't think threatening other people to replace out is at all a solution

I know you're a strong player, I would sheep you if I knew you were town, but also the world doesn't revolve around you, the person, and I kinda feel like you're expecting it to here. Like please explain what you want everyone else to do. Asking every town player to just ignore your meta / their wincon is not really an option

You think that it's not personal because you're just one person trying to play your game but when it's all the time for you you would take it personally too.
It's very easy for you to not understand because you're 'just playing to your wincon' when

your assessment of your wincon

removes my ability to play the game.

Do you think my assessment, given the information I have, is wrong?

My vote there is entirely independent of your vote there and I'm not sure what specific engagement you think that I should have with your role claim.

I made some intentionally weird posts that were probably hard to read (which by itself is more beneficial to scum than town), and didn't give a real reason for voting UD. I would kinda expect town to try to sort me in that situation, and try to assess whether or not I would be bussing UD as scum

[ruru]

Also I feel like random lynching in 2:1 can't be good

Like the problem random voting addresses is scum manipulating the game so that the other scum don't get lynched

In 2:1 there's no special advantage that scum have

[ruru]

3-way lylo is 33% with random voting, but I mean I think we can do better than 33% with non-random voting

It doesn't have to be >50% to be better than random

[ruru]

For example if one player is correctly townread, and votes are otherwise random, it's exactly 50%, a super big improvement

[ruru]

Also I think your approach of sending the best players to heaven is dead wrong
strongest players should stay on the ground, I'd send like whoever I read as like weakest >80% town in the game to heaven
nightless games perform far above equity but only because they keep town powerhouses in play, you lynch them it might as well not be nightless

according to awoo equity is 32% which is pretty awful. I would never advocate sending myself to heaven unless it was like super late game

This was also my first thought of how to use d2. I agree it shouldn't be a strong player who's obvtown

I think it should be either a weak / antitown player who's obvtown or a strong player who's null

I'm leaning toward the latter atm because taking strong players out of the game is also inherently good (e.g. non-perfect play is the only reason why town wins 50% of games in a setup with 40% expected win)

I don't think that anyone has ever benefited from random paranoia of me when I was scum: in the two games I was lynched as scum unintentionally last year one was because I replaced an absolute dead slot and the other I had decided that winning the game wasn't worth it and there was serious situational reasoning to scumread me. On the other hand, there's over a dozen games where town massively suffered because people decided to paranoia read me.

This basically implies that we should stop thinking about your slot today and autolynch you d2, doesn't it?

If you're scum, you're going to talk your way out of a reads based lynch / we weren't going to catch you or convince others of it anyway

If you're town, we don't get to benefit fully from your actual town playing strength because everyone will be too paranoid to sheep your reads (I realize this is a self-fulfilling prophecy for your town game but the point of the game is to play to win, not to make RC happy)

I think this makes you a good heaven candidate

If you want to actually have a chance of taking scum games off of me the first thing that you need to learn to do is correctly townread me.

I have no hope of actually accurately reading you this game and I'm not in denial of that

That's part of why I'm voting UD right now

I have had you as locktown since basically the very beginning of the game. I don't play the game like you seem to think that I do.

Then why is your vote on me? Do you think it's worth policy lynching a locktown player to hell who has admittedly weak reads, and probably won't ever be able to convince others you're scum?

[ruru]

Sending me to heaven tomorrow is also perfectly viable but like... if I was scum that's the equivalent of saying that I'm going to win anyway so just give me the win

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't believe sending scum to heaven d2 is nearly as gamelosing as you're making it seem. Sending 0 scum to heaven is not the goal of the game. Losing 1 life is at least partially mitigated by it still being a lynch on scum.

I have what I think is a pretty good real-world reason to believe that the winrate difference it makes would be less than the simulated 4% (the 5% number was due to a minor bug), and flipping one player out of seven, who is not obvtown, could easily be worth more than that 4%. And that 4% is the difference between lynching conftown and lynching confscum, not the difference between lynching a townread and lynching a nullread. Flipping a non-obvtown and leaving a strong townread alive also makes PoE much, much easier on later days in a way that random simulation doesn't address.

To put this in perspective, the simulated difference in winrate between lynching town on d1 and lynching scum on d1 is 25%.

Especially if there's a single obvtown player, I don't think it's that bad at all to play in a way that has a decent chance to hit scum d2 by mistake. And it's easier to find one obvtown player than one obvscum player

Also, if we do send scum to heaven, you would be the best scum we can possibly send, because everyone else has a much higher chance of being caught if they stay alive, whereas you have a much higher chance of doing whatever you do that leads to 95% scum win if you stay alive

So, I don't think it's saying that at all. Lynching you d2, in the case that you're scum, reduces theoretical EV by less than 5%. Leaving you alive, if you're scum, reduces practical EV

to

5%

[ruru]

Hmm

I can't imagine forgetting my read on a player as either alignment

I actually have no idea what to make of 231

[ruru]

Everyone please read this again

Sending me to heaven tomorrow is also perfectly viable but like... if I was scum that's the equivalent of saying that I'm going to win anyway so just give me the win

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't believe sending scum to heaven d2 is nearly as gamelosing as you're making it seem. Sending 0 scum to heaven is not the goal of the game. Losing 1 life is at least partially mitigated by it still being a lynch on scum.

I have what I think is a pretty good real-world reason to believe that the winrate difference it makes would be less than the simulated 4% (the 5% number was due to a minor bug), and flipping one player out of seven, who is not obvtown, could easily be worth more than that 4%. And that 4% is the difference between lynching conftown and lynching confscum, not the difference between lynching a townread and lynching a nullread. Flipping a non-obvtown and leaving a strong townread alive also makes PoE much, much easier on later days in a way that random simulation doesn't address.

To put this in perspective, the simulated difference in winrate between lynching town on d1 and lynching scum on d1 is 25%.

Especially if there's a single obvtown player, I don't think it's that bad at all to play in a way that has a decent chance to hit scum d2 by mistake. And it's easier to find one obvtown player than one obvscum player

Also, if we do send scum to heaven, you would be the best scum we can possibly send, because everyone else has a much higher chance of being caught if they stay alive, whereas you have a much higher chance of doing whatever you do that leads to 95% scum win if you stay alive

So, I don't think it's saying that at all. Lynching you d2, in the case that you're scum, reduces theoretical EV by less than 5%. Leaving you alive, if you're scum, reduces practical EV

to

5%

If you actually believe I'm town, lynching me today is a waste of a flip

VOTE: RC most awesomest

[ruru]

https://pastebin.com/yqezC6aj

[ruru]

If this isn't the lynch today, I will replace out because fuck playing with someone like this.

He did say he would

[ruru]

Yeah, I can totally see that coming from scum and I'm not strongly townreading him

I don't think the replace out is a scumclaim though

The chances of 2 scum getting into heaven after sending town to heaven d2 are extremely low, so I'm not sure I understand your concern over d4

[ruru]

Having one IC alive who is never lynched (not even to heaven to block scum when one scum is already in heaven, which I'm pretty sure is suboptimal strategy) and lynching randomly among the rest today leads to simulated 80% win

Lynching town today leads to simulated 60% win

This is also completely ignoring the positive effects of lynching RC

IF YOU THINK I AM TOWN, DO NOT LYNCH ME TODAY

[ruru]

If you flip green I promise not to send Oxy to heaven

[ruru]

279 has nothing to do with you

[ruru]

The last thing I would want to do is policy send someone like myself to heaven because of how bad sending scum to heaven is in this setup

but knowing that I'm town fighting over not being sent to heaven is never worth it here.

The last thing I would want to do is policy send someone like myself to heaven because of how bad sending scum to heaven is in this setup

but knowing that I'm town fighting over not being sent to heaven is never worth it here.

The last thing I would want to do is policy send someone like myself to heaven because of how bad sending scum to heaven is in this setup

but knowing that I'm town fighting over not being sent to heaven is never worth it here.

The last thing I would want to do is policy send someone like myself to heaven because of how bad sending scum to heaven is in this setup

but knowing that I'm town fighting over not being sent to heaven is never worth it here.

The last thing I would want to do is policy send someone like myself to heaven because of how bad sending scum to heaven is in this setup

but knowing that I'm town fighting over not being sent to heaven is never worth it here.

The only rational option if you continue to argue against being d2 lynched is to d3 lynch you

[ruru]

stop determining strategy based off of simulated results that assume random lynching please.

Real life towns are going to be much, much

better

than random at avoiding sending a scum #2 to heaven

I have given both theoretical and practical reasons why lynching me today is terrible and all you've done is say I'm wrong

[ruru]

If I'm scum, then you don't want me going to heaven because I'm scum and then you have to correctly catch out my specific buddy instead of having a chance at lynching either of us

Yes, lynching scum today is bad

Lynching anyone today is bad. If we could skip heaven phases, we would

Lynching your strongest townread is

worse

Please just trust me to solve the game.

Why? You're currently pushing the most -EV lynch possible

[ruru]

I don't believe you or anyone else has 100% to solo carry town

If you treat me as IC, the theoretical EV of lynching scum!you is 67% win
The theoretical EV of lynching me is 60% win

This is

without

implementing optimal town strategy, or even considering how dangerous you are as scum

[ruru]

You're saying you want to lynch obvtown in order to find 4 other obvtowns and that doing this is somehow a 100% play

[ruru]

Like you're treating the heaven send as a flip for some reason.

Because it is a flip

If you hit scum it's extremely bad.

Citation needed

Oh no I'm so dangerous as scum I'm probably going to get autosent to hea- oh wait.
This is 100% wrong by the way: I'm not sure what's making the numbers wrong but I am 100% that this is not how this game works.

It's like 60 LOC and I highly encourage you to find bugs if you actually are town and want to win

Even if the numbers were correct I'd strongly argue that, fypov

2/7ths odds of me being scum = 2% increased win equity based on the difference
5/7ths of the time me being town I only need to make the game about 3% more likely to end in a win by being kept alive
town average winrate last year was about 40%, mine was well above 50%. I am worth that 3%.

No, 5/7ths of the time you're killing an obvtown slot just so that you can play the game on later days. That's the issue, and it's more like 20% than 3%

You are never going to be obvtown in this game

PoE is strong, even more so when I can't get NKed

You are basically trying to NK me right now

That is how the game is never lost. Playing to win is how the game is won if it's played well but has the potential for error.

So basically you're saying you want to be responsible for the loss if we lose, and you're willing to decrease our actual winrate just so it's not somebody else losing you the game

I sympathize with that but it's not rational

[ruru]

It's significantly easier to correctly pin one out of two scum than it is to pin one single scum.

And this is relevant to...?

I would also strongly argue that I already -am- obvtown for refusing to go to heaven if nothing else, but I don't expect to convince you of that because if a cop outed with an inno on me you would probably advocate lynching the cop to be sure that the inno is real.

I just don't think going to heaven today is correct for scum!RC

[ruru]

This game is white flag. You are advocating for what would be, if I was scum, taking away one vector for town to win the game (ie lynching me.)

... Okay I actually need a rules clarification

Do we instantly win if we lynch two scum to hell, or do we win at endgame if two scum are in hell?

I thought if we lynch two scum to hell, we can still lose by lynching town in lylo

[ruru]

Isn't this setup super townsided then?

[ruru]

Maruchan can you confirm this please?

No. If we lynch two scum to hell the game is over.

[ruru]

Assuming it's true, then lynch me and also RC is town

[ruru]

... yeah that's a lot less ambiguous than the wiki

Well at least you know where I was coming from now

I actually don't think this clears you as town, though. Assuming everyone else understood the rules, there was probably no way you get lynched today so agreeing to my logic would only make you look scummy. So I think your reaction is NAI?

Anyway lynching me seems correct

[ruru]

VOTE: ruru

Why did you put me at L-1 if you think I'm likely scum?

Without you knowing I misunderstood the rules, scum!me would self-hammer there

[ruru]

I think the most scum-indicative posts from Oxy are 124-152

It could be nothing, but it felt like he was going to scumread me, and then changed his mind opportunistically

I find this much scummier than his replace out

Him townreading me on d1 is kind of weird in the sense that he knows my meta and knows I have much more reason to troll as scum than as town. But it's also not weird in the sense that Oxy always hard townreads me for no reason

I feel kind of the same in that AP also scumread me for no reason last game so I'm hesitant to scumread his d1 vote on me (even though my d1 was designed specifically to look for scum trying to jump on an easy mislynch and his vote on me would otherwise fit perfectly)

Also Oxy's setup spec strikes me as a lot scummier unless he had the same misunderstanding that I have

[ruru]

We’re not sending anyone off the wagon to heaven

That's the wrong approach IMHO. By sending

me

to Heaven I will flip and be confirmed, but -more importantly- you will NOT be sending anyone from that wagon to Hell next, so you're taking me out of the PoE list while still maintain all your TRs in-play.

Now, let's assume I'm scum (for the sake of argument). I will still FLIP, so you will know, and you will not need to listen to me IF push come to shove and we reach Judgement Day.

But I'm not going to fight for my view here.

I'm just making a stance, so feel free to do as you wish.

This post which I'm actually probably reading for the first time is scummy especially the bolded

[ruru]

Yeah I think AP is just scum especially considering when he voted me d1 + the UD flip

UD looked pretty bad d1 so I don't think the votes on him mean much?

AP > Hiraki/N_M > RC/teacher > Invis?

[ruru]

fwiw you seem like a lot of fun to play with and I look forward to chatting in martyr topic with you later. I wouldn't send you to heaven if I had anyone else I was sure on.

Wow I was afraid you were going to hate me forever

[ruru]

AP > Hiraki/N_M > RC/teacher > Invis?

Also this is scumminess not lynch order

D3 AP hell

AP green (4:2) -> Invis heaven

Invis red (4:1) -> Hiraki hell
Hiraki green (3:1) -> teacher heaven
teacher green (2:1) -> RC hell

Invis green (3:2) -> Hiraki hell
Hiraki green (2:2) -> RC hell

Does this work

[ruru]

I mean. I'll probably avoid you in future games because I think we both feel like our wincons require us to do things that are mutually compatible as town.

But I think that's just us being incompatible and that doesn't extend to be me disliking you or anything

Totally understandable

[ruru]

Oh that's also a player hmm

[ruru]

1) I don't want to lynch AP tomorrow. I'm not especially scumreading them, I really think Oxy was scum and Hiraki's entrance felt extremely pockety of me + never wanting that slot to go to endgame so that's who I want down tomorrow.

Yeah I didn't like Hiraki's entrance either

2) I don't understand why you're putting me in front of Teacher and Alchemist. Are you really scumreading me over them or are you just refusing to let me get to endgame on a principle thing?

I guess on individual scumminess I put Alchemist in between Hiraki (scummier) and N_M (townier)

I agree with you atm that Hiraki's slot is scummy but I think lynching you becomes more interesting in the cases where he flips green

3) I am not enthusiastic about sheeping your preordained lynch order in general regardless of your being conftown I am still more confident in my own ability to solve the game + I get access to boatloads more information in the days to come.

I wasn't asking you to sheep me in case it wasn't clear. I don't have nearly that high an opinion of my own reads, it's just what I'm thinking about at the moment

4) I am extremely wary of the fact that people were pushing for Invisibility to be JDed over yourself. I'm not sure that makes him scum but I'm not enthusiastic about testing it.

Interesting

Who do you think is a better candidate, other than you?

[ruru]

So if Hiraki or N_M flips green, we can more confidently send Invis to heaven

Why is AP town

[ruru]

I honestly can't put anything to it besides gut. It's less a specific townread on him and more that I have to ask myself what scum are doing if Hiraki isn't scum.

So let's say you lynch Hiraki tomorrow (which I agree with now) and he flips green

Is AP still townier than Invis?

[ruru]

I actually don't think Hiraki/Invisibility, for example, are ever paired

If this is true then there might be a case for flipping N_M tomorrow and sending Invis to heaven if N_M is green, because N_M was the only other player advocating Invis to heaven I think?

Yes because like unless he's scum with like NM there's no partners that really make sense like if the scumteam were bussing why doesn't he just hop on kinda deal

Whereas invisibility makes sense with basically any of the remaining players
it's really rare to see one scummate bus and another hard oppose and in a 3 player setup especially I think scum would be generally doing the same thing

It's hard for me to take your word on this being likely or unlikely without knowing your alignment although at the same time I kinda don't see you making this argument as scum if you know it's wrong? Hmm

I would think scum would often want to split 2:1 (because random voting is most likely to split 2:1) and less commonly 3:0, specifically to stop VCA

Is there any theoretical reason why you think scum should play differently, or is just empirical?

the most likely AP scum universe to me is actually the one where he's scum with Hiraki and scum just didn't want to let duck go

This feels unlikely to me now that you mention it

[ruru]

It's hard for me to take your word on this being likely or unlikely without knowing your alignment although at the same time I kinda don't see you making this argument as scum if you know it's wrong? Hmm

I would think scum would often want to split 2:1 (because random voting is most likely to split 2:1) and less commonly 3:0, specifically to stop VCA

Is there any theoretical reason why you think scum should play differently, or is just empirical?

Actually I think I understand. If they're bothering to bus d1 but split 1:1 then there's a major risk of autolosing if town decides to lynch off-wagon

Hmm

[ruru]

I could be getting manipulated and AP could be scum with you, but I agree on Hiraki+Invis being unlikely

I'm starting to think N_M is the best flip

[ruru]

Okay, new line of thinking

Suppose Alchemist is afk scum d1

Which third scums make sense

[ruru]

So AP+Alchemist is also possible, right?

[ruru]

Yeah, I guess.

Is that because of your read on AP or Alchemist?

AP

I'm somewhat doubting myself because of some of the reasons you mentioned + AP is known to scumread me for no reason but I do find him individually scummy

Also I think Alchemist can be scummier than you at this point if Oxy flips green, which would also make AP more likely to be scum

[ruru]

(I mean that Alchemist being scummier makes AP scummier, not that Oxy green necessarily makes AP scummier in total)

[ruru]

Well, I guess it does too because Oxy+AP feels somewhat silly to me

[ruru]

Does anyone have thoughts on flipping N_M tomorrow?

FWIW, Im not a good heaven candidate. Dont care how you read me, Im fairly new here and my own reads are not good enough yet.

I think this makes you a better heaven candidate. Sending town to heaven can't result in immediate JD

(But sending a town player is most important)

[ruru]

Yeah thinking about it more I guess it's a bit too indirect to flip N_M to try to confirm Invis when maybe Invis is just independently scum, and I do agree Hiraki is higher scum equity

Are you willing to be banned from d4 heaven if Hiraki flips green

[ruru]

I'm not sure if that's as likely as you think

Also I don't actually advocate banning you from heaven, and although if you said yes I probably would've townread you for it, I feel like your response is expected/NAI

From my POV, policy lynching you in lylo is no longer that good because you've already had your time to manipulate the game state if you're scum. It's better to do it d1/d3 if at all

If I'm voting you in lylo it's because I think your actions are actually scummier than the other players

[ruru]

I'm not even going to try to analyze that

[ruru]

I just stopped wanting to play the game when someone I had never played with started advocating policy lynching me D1.

I'm really sorry you felt that way

Not even mentioning the idea would be an insult to your scum game though honestly

NM - Once gain I dont understand how df you survive day one in any game

I guess UglyDuck being too scummy to policy lynch anyone d1 probably helped

Also people have said NM is readable, lolhammers are whatever in mountainous, and there were a couple of things later that made me think he was town although I really have no idea if they were valid reads or just luck

It has become site meta that "play to win" is more important than "play to have fun". These two should not be mutually exclusive, but they have become so. Playing to win as a bad guy means personal attacks, vendettas, lying about everything ,raging, etc. and it isn't just you, it's a large number of players. That isn't a game. That's a stress inducing

Okay, so I actually have a lot of thoughts on this

So I read RC's post and it made me want to stop playing the game and then I slept on it and I got over it, in large part because it could have just been him playing to win (apparently not actually the case, but still)

I've been flamed much worse outside of mafia and generally don't really care that much, the only reason I cared is that I actually really look up to RC's play so being flamed by him in particular felt pretty bad

Personally I do believe in playing to win. If I don't do something because I'm personally uncomfortable with it then I really think that's me being a suboptimal mafia player, not me being a morally awesome person. Like I'm pretty sure there are a lot of optimal scum plays for example that rely on yelling at people and making them feel terrible until they do what's asked, which is not at all my personality. I mean, I can be individually super toxic but in most situations more cold than hot and specifically trying to command groups of people to do things does not come naturally at all to me. If it came naturally to me, I would probably be trying to use it to my advantage in game.

I don't think it's unique to scum play either. The only thing that even caused me to be more assertive in my games here was seeing the town rolecard and actually realizing that yes, I could be ruining the game for the experienced players and playing awful, but also I don't know their alignment so I have to try anyway. I didn't even understand this feeling in my first game on site which is probably why I was so obvious scum.

I normally would never be that assertive talking to players whom I know are like 20 times better / more experienced than I am at a game if I know they're on my team. I think me being stubborn newb town d1 in 721 is another example of playing to win, possibly at the expense of everyone else's fun (hi Md) if it turns out I'm actually just throwing.

Policy lynching RC, had I actually done it, would also be an example of playing to win at other people's expense. It's not very nice if it actually prevents RC from playing mafia because someone does it every game, and if people notice it decreases his scum winrate from 95% to 0%, it's pretty likely to catch on. The "ethical" thing is to lynch the least charismatic poster like usual d1 so that people aren't punished for being good at the game.

I hate lying like 100 times more than I hate yelling insults at people, but this is a game where scum at the very least are supposed to behave unethically, like being pretty much required to lie, and anyone can roll scum, so I feel like it's pretty much expected that people are going to do what they think it takes to win the game, even if it's not a nice thing to do.

In any case this post is getting way too long. While "what should be acceptable site meta" isn't really my concern, I really, really, don't want people WKing me out of game over this in particular and it would be super hypocritical for me to say nothing here. I have no idea where the line is supposed to be drawn when one of the rules of the game is that you play to your wincon.

Feel free to WK me in game though

[ruru]

@Maruchan: Thank you for modding

Thanks Maruchan!

[ruru]

@ruru: I

really

didn't notice Hiraki got lynched already. I was 1 page behind and didn't even notice that I was, so wasn't aware of any posts on the page where he got lynched.
You wanna know something even fannier? I wasn't keeping taps on the vote count for the first lynch of the game either.

Now go join 728 before it's full.

Lots of familiar faces already

We really need to stop erroneously scumreading each other sometime

Although I feel like you towntold pretty hard later on so it worked out anyway

[ruru]

Also is it me or would this setup be a bit more balanced/interested if it was what I thought it was rather than what it actually was?