Open 724 - Pick Your Power X/Y [Endgame]

[Ircher]

Honestly, I haven't seen anyone give a reason why NOT to lynch Katy today (besides from Katy).

Iconeum needs to claim target and results though before the day ends.

[Ircher]

Taly, where did you go?

[Katyusha]

oh for the record i confirm being hooded etc

so far i'm only able to confirm ircher is in the hood but i highly doubt that they lied about everyone else too LMFAO

[Ircher]

PYP X/Y is weird; when I neighborize someone, a new PT is created for each one.

[Katyusha]

This one's for the duckling.

VOTE: lalendra

by the way why did everyone collectively forget about this vote? like all i really remember about this game while following it was d1 stuff so this completely slipped my mind and wasnt brought up at ALL day 3 and there's literally nothing town about this

there's NO reason for someone within the cop/rb dipole to vote someone who's confirmed to

not

be a roleblocker, especially when you're hammering that lynch in when the moral was coming back to janitor. All this ever does is delay the 1v1 between whichever of {Simyk, Janitor} survives D3, specifically to prevent a Janitor > Simyk > Ico chain lynch that probably would have won the game.

I don't know if a lolhammer like that is more likely to come from a wagon that's mostly town or scumled but the janitor push (including my slot) was entirely town that day - scum WANT to prevent or delay the rb hunt

[Ircher]

#1) Hindsight is 20/20. That said, the Lalendra lynch was bad and shouldn't've happened.
#2) I did address that when I ISO'd Iconeum yesterday.

[Ircher]

Things I need before the day ends:

1) Iconeum's night target and result
2) Eddie Cane's response to my ISO of his

[Katyusha]

The LOGICAL conclusion here is that SOMEONE whom is a VT is LYING or that ICONEUM is lying ┐(´-｀)┌

THIS MEANS the PLAUSIBLE jails are all bad lynches REGARDLESS of claims BEFORE we find the roleblocker - as a BARE minimum the lynchpool should be {Davesaz, Janitor, Iconeum, SIMYK} if we are going to RESOLVE this dipole

i mean gee it's almost like someone pointed out why the lalendra lynch was garbage at the time

[Ircher]

VOTE: Ausuka

[Katyusha]

holy fuck no

[Katyusha]

"No comment"

[Katyusha]

ok there is comment now but i haven't processed it yet but my opinion of voting <24 hours into lylo has not changed

[Katyusha]

okay i guess not??????

[Katyusha]

Taly, where did you go?

lease dish out some sanity in the hood im gonna mcfreaking lose it here

[Eddie Cane]

Also the D2 Lalendra lynch is 100% scum motivated, she was confirmed to NOT be a roleblocker and we absolutely needed to lynch within that dipole so that Janitor/My slot/Iconeum could be resolved before lylo

lol no

[Eddie Cane]

Things I need before the day ends:

1) Iconeum's night target and result
2) Eddie Cane's response to my ISO of his

when I'm at a computer, ye.

[Ircher]

Also the D2 Lalendra lynch is 100% scum motivated, she was confirmed to NOT be a roleblocker and we absolutely needed to lynch within that dipole so that Janitor/My slot/Iconeum could be resolved before lylo

lol no

The game was in a solveable state D2. Lalendra lynch ruined that, and lynching Janitor would've definitely been the better move.

[Eddie Cane]

that doesn't make it 100% scum motivated bruh

[Katyusha]

eddie can you reconcile yourself with the fact that im the only possible scum who voted janitor at some point d2 which means that there's probably at least 2 scum on lalendra from literally everyone's pov or is that bad for your narrative

pedit: yes it does :////////////

[Ircher]

Oh, I missed that part (the 100%); nevermind then.

But I think it is fair to say it was partially scum-motivated.

[Katyusha]

100% is an indication of confidence not volume of scum

[Eddie Cane]

I can reconcile you being xcum if that's the question

[Katyusha]

scum needed the lalendra lynch, only iconeum is ensured a lock win from it

I can reconcile you being xcum if that's the question

theres still two scum on lalendra which would mean that my slot probably still wanted lalendra lynched, which obviously is not the case from her posting but w/e

[Ircher]

Spoiler: The 24 Hour Flop Onto Lalendra D2

Eddie-kun in THIS game I possess disagreement with this course of action - the ROLEBLOCKER is the MOST important scumrole and NEEDS to be accounted for first (*•̀ᴗ•́*)و ̑̑

When we LACKED additional information on the subject, you would be acura to LYNCH LALANDRA first but NOW we know that the roleblocker MUST be between four people OR Iconeum is MAFIA. From MY perspective that's nearly an ENTIRE gamesolve （＊〇□〇）……！

In the PYP before the LAST Prince Lyon did a COMMENDABLE effort in CONCEALING the TRUE identity of the ROLEBLOCKER and town lacked LEADS in finding it which made an ALBAN lynch in that game wise, but NOW that we have a STRONG process of elimination we should ACT on the information we possess (ﾉ^ヮ^)ﾉ*:・ﾟ✧

if you want full wifom which you apparently do, not only is janitor less than 50% role locker as explained hes also probably less likely than his partners. the way he was the main wagon for a while means one of his voters would likely be a partner and bussing the best xcum pr in a hugely town sided game is not a thing that happens.the rb is most likely who ever the third scum is, possibly it dossnt exist and its iconeum, otherwise it's the third. what if lalendra faked her BUDDIES role?I've seen that. you always lunch confirmed scum. basic. mafia. theory.

stop talking in principles and start talking in the specifics of this game

we resolve iconeum vs VTs sooner rather than later

lalendra's actions have all been meaningless to analyse since she's been confirmed as scum, i've seen confscum do all sorts of wacky shit

what goes wrong from leaving lalendra alive exactly? you think town's going to fail to lynch her later?

Hammer intent.
Do we even need mutant's info?

Confirming that

Ircher

hooded me

I'm not moving my vote off confscum onto maybe scum. The major in-game argument for

Janitor

-scum is an associative, and we can't confirm that he is PR unlike what we already know about

Lalendra.

I've seen enough town guess and not lynch the stronger likely scum option and then it never happens. That literally fucked me and the rest of town over in Open 712

If

Lalendra

appears in multiple associative theories as scum, then her flip is far more valuable earlier.

Also

Math,

the whole

"Janitor is skitter30"

makes 0 sense to me.

1)

They have a different posting style and tone.

2) Janitor

uses "he" as a pronoun and

Skitter

uses "she"

3)

You still haven't even explained why this is Skitters sxumgame... if you really do believe this is an alt playing to a scum meta, why don't you elaborate?

And you should answer instead of saying "I've already stated this",

Math

I've reread the past 20 pages of the damn thread so if I have a question you're not helping push your thoughts by not even trying to post a link or quote.

I'll look at D1 interactions but I can't promise much... I don't have my computer and I don't have a lot of time to devote to ISO diving for a week.

no, because your gamesolve relies on the cop getting actual checks on people

the theoretically town cop CAN'T get checks on people as long as a mafia roleblocker is alive

we lynch the most likely roleblocker and that's janitor

what mechanical benefit is there to lynching lalendra the role cop now after massclaim has already happened?

you're speaking in general principles and i'm asking you how lalendra's lynch actually helps us

it flips scum. I dont need more than that. less scum = more town ev.

@Math

Open 712 WAS a multiball but the concept is still the same.

If you think Lalendra is confscum, why aren't you pushing for that lynch? Instead you're going for what you THINK could be scum and thus not only allowing WIFOM about PR actions- (((because with Lalendra being scum, WHAT credibility do you find with her results?))) But also WIFOM over the alignment of Janitor, Lalendra, and yourself.

Your actions are not aligning with your reads.

~~~

Also, I disagree with Janitor and Skityer having an identical tone.

I have played with Skitter before.

They use different wordings, I think they have a different approach to the game, and I can't see why you think this way when MOST of your argument is
"This is what I think and it's right."

Also, if you know what town-Skitter looks like.... WHY are you using that as an indicator of what scum-Skitter is?

People can look very similar as both alignments, and if you're TRULY sold on Janitor being Skitter-scum, I hope you have more than 1 or 2 games supporting your thought process and you SHOULD link them.

And even then:
Lynch Priority-
Confscum > Potential Scum

Taly-kun WHILE I agree that USUALLY confscum > potential scum REMEMBER that we KNOW that EITHRE the COP is scum OR there is a LYING vt in {simyk, davesaz, janitor} OR that Iconeum is MAFIA!

The ROLEBLOCKER'S lynch ENSURES that town gets MORE information from COP peeks! Thus we are making a HIGH RISK HIGH REWARD play that is OPTIMAL in this setup GIVEN the power of READS allowing us to POE myself away from our pool - we have a VERY high chance of identifying scum with ONLY one lynch that ALSO lets us use a VERY powerful POWER ROLE (*•̀ᴗ•́*)و ̑̑

he got unfairly mislynched in open 720

eddie should essentially be conftown

anyway the lesson of 720 is that when you has scum within your grasp (Not_Mafia), you shouldn't lynch elsewhere in order to resolve a 1v1 (Alonzo/havingfitz)
because N_M was the jailkeeper the whole time and lynching him could've won the game

the difference here however is that we KNOW lalendra is effectively a vanilla mafia
so there's no risk of leaving her alive

the reason "always lynch confscum" is a good principle is because
- The flip will assist in setup spec
- It robs mafia of potential scum PRs
- It at the very least gives TPRs an extra free night to get things done

however, in this game
- We know what the flip will be
- Lalendra is useless to scum
- TPRs literally can't do anything as long as a Roleblocker is alive

In the off chance that Lalendra isn't scum, who should we have her role-cop?

there is no off-chance that Lalendra isn't scum and we shouldn't be engaging with the possibility that she is. There has been no mention of any sort of mod error, for starters (because there wasn't one.)

in fact
VOTE: Lalendra
is scum with Iconeum (possibly Janitor too but we'll get to that) and there is no roleblocker.

Lalendra is third on the draft. How likely is it really that she went for Rolecop while her buddy who is lower down goes for RB? I know bangthemafia went for Roleblocker last time in 675 at #7, but that was only because his buddies were much lower down. This time, scum had a member on #3 in the draft, and yet they went for Rolecop, and SIMYK or Janitor went for Roleblocker at #5 or #7? Really?

Wouldn't it make more sense if Iconeum was scum at #1 and chose Mafia Roleblocker himself?

no, because then some rando at spot #14 could pick up the cop just like that, and suddenly icon gets all sorts of questions about why the fuck he didn't pick cop

icon is definitely actually the cop/redirector

now that i think about it though that's a pretty compelling reason janitor might not be the roleblocker

i still think janitor is scum and think she should get lynched tomorrow (and i think enough people are willing to do that for me?)

but i'll see lalendra's death

is there anything else that needs to be done today?

Then why would lalendra, the top scum in the draft, go for role cop

If scum, they have both rb and rolecop. Easily switched in a team with chat.

Then why would lalendra, the top scum in the draft, go for role cop

This. Would top scum pick role cop over rb?

Right.

So why would the highest scum leave a fee doc for town?
I just dont see the value for a scum top pick being rolecop.

Just something to think about here:

If scum picked role cop, they probably didn't do it just so that they can find out peoples roles. The main reason scum wants role cop is to prevent themselves from being investigated by it. In this game, scum either have the cop/redirector slot or the doc/RBer slot. If either of those slots were investigated by a role cop and produced a redirector or RBer result instead of a cop or doc result then that's essentially a guilty. By having the role cop, this gives scum the freedom to lie about their role within their slot.

My question is, why would they pick mafia role cop if it was their highest position? The whole point of having the role cop is the allow them to lie about other roles they have. The only way they'd pick role cop is if they were confident they'd get a role that would perhaps need lying about. This suggests that there's scum above Lalendra in the draft order. That could only be Iconeum. In the #1 position, that's the only way they'd be entirely confident they'd get a role that needs lying about. So my theory is that Icon is actually a redirector and they chose role cop to give him the freedom to claim cop.

I just looked at my statistics of this game and scum has never chosen rolecop with their highest position. I'm sorry but I just find that there is no way mechanically that scum chose role cop with their most likely to get a PR slot unless they blatantly misunderstand how this setup works. Considering Lalendra has played this setup before, I'm inclined to doubt that.

VOTE: Iconeum

I feel like that based on our setup information Icon is far more likely to be lying about not getting a result than Janitor is specifically a role blocker. If Icon is town then that guilties Janitor. Likewise, Janitor town guilties Icon.

@Lalendra, on the 1% chance we're wrong about you, your move tonight is to check Janitor if they do not die today. To clarify, nothing will stop you being lynched, but obviously your word suddenly means a lot more when you flip (if you're town).


Tin foil theory: Role cop was chosen in order to allow both the cop and doc slots to lie about being their townier option. Hence the scum team could be all 3 of Lalendra, Icon and Janitor.

This one's for the duckling.

VOTE: lalendra

(I have to admit--I did give hammering intent, but that was more of a "I want the day to end" thing versus "I am thinking this through and think Lalendra is a better lynch.".)

[Katyusha]

again how does this connect to speedvoting ausuka