In post 1698, Sando wrote: In post 1697, skitter30 wrote:
In post 1697, skitter30 wrote:I don't think you're a wolf, for exactly the reason you're citing. I don't know who the wolf is, but I'm pretty damn sure you're not town.
I'd rather lynch *any* sort of scumread that I'm very confident on than take a gamble on someone that's 'maybe-wolf-maybe-town' because the margin of error in this game is super small and doesn't really leave much room for mistakes, and we've already blown through one of our mislynches.
OK - I agree with the first part (any skum read etc), but the second part pings me the wrong way. Like I am not arguing the margin for error is small, but to say we have "already blown through one of our mislynches..."? We have had two lynches, and on one of them we got a wolf, and then there was a mafia killed at night... when the game started did you think we would be in a BETTER spot waking up today than 1Wolf-2Mafia-5Town???
And I said all of this already:
a) You're wrong and are trying to lynch town here
b) Lynching people you know aren't wolf is beyond stupid
c) Trying to hide behind "I'd rather lynch any scum than mislynch" is also a really stupid statement, given you're saying you'd rather lynch in a pool that has less chance of producing "scum" since by your own words, it doesn't include 1/3rd of the scumpool. 3/8 or 37.5% of the pool are scum, you want to reduce that to 2/8 or 25% chance that any given lynch target is scum...can we pretty please play some poker...for money...lots of money? Because you're a terrible gambler.
d) The statement is just also extremely lazy and designed to appeal to town whilst also abrogating your responsibility.
First off, before anything else - Poker player and gambler are two very different things. However, the differences between the two are funnily actually kind of perfectly represented here. If this was gambling (or a math equasion - like let's say blackjack), then yeah... no doubt removing 1/3 of the skum pool and randomly choosing between the remaining players is bad. However, you also fucked up your math. If you remove the 1/3 skum pool it doesn't drop to 25% because it drops to 2/7 not 2/8 as you have to remove both ends. So, not that it matters, but the odds are actually 28.6%. You and me should play poker some time - for money... lots of money
More importantly I would like to point out that this mathematical error is far easier to mess up from the perspective of skum. Specifically skum speaking the the concept of removing someone from play they know to be town.
More - more importantly, while those number look potentially appealing on one end, it doesn't matter. If we are lynching for Any!Skum then no one should be removed because there are (no matter how sure you think you are) only 3 remaining players in the game that know who any skum are, and one of those players only knows their own identity, and the other two don't know the last's.
TLD;R - Removing skum from lynchpool is a bad idea bc we don't know who skum is.
Now as it so happens this game is less like BlackJack, and more like Poker - meaning there are outside influences you have to consider.
So to say lynching within 3/8 is preferable to lynching within 5/8 could potentially be true. However, this game is based on things like reads and interactions and choice.. not just math. Still irrelevant though, due to the fact that, regardless of alignment, the player on the chopping block would not vote for themselves. So the field is actually a house of 7, not of 8 (from any given individuals interpretation).
Another skummy math error btw.
All of that up there I just typed out was to point out that while math is an important instrument, as it is in poker, it is not the sole device to be relied upon. And I also believe that in this instance, that this is a freeking skumslip.
Summary - The game plan should assuredly be to isolate the skummiest players and lynch within that pool. Any other approach is, forgive me, but just incorrect. All the talk about numbers and math and chance is bullshit because at the end of the day you (or anyone) alone are not making the decision - the decision is made by the majority of remaining players in the game and their thoughts on the matter... And that is coming from the guy that is essentially being universally skum-read at this point.