Open 725: Jungle Republic - Day 5

[Sando]

What I did say was:

* I think that there's no point lynching outside of the guilty

* I think it's hypocritical of you to push me for wanting to lynch a wolf yesterday when you wanted to lynch wolves yesterday (that's what the post in response to the fumuki post was saying)

* I think it's scummy and hypocritical for you to be pushing me for not voting someone I think is a wolf when you're voting me but can't explain how my actions make sense as coming from a wolf in a holistic sense.

This whole thing says you didn't actually read what I was saying yesterday, and the fact that you're still pushing people who you don't think are wolves says you still either refuse to acknowledge or don't understand what I've been saying for a looooong time. I'm not going to go back into it, for a variety of reasons, but we can circle back later today if you want.

I think that the wolves are in {pine/nm}. I think that pretty much anyone has the potential to be mafia except for like ceejay, but my best bet are you > ud >>> ruby red in roughly that order.

Seriously? "There's no interest"? Instead of lynching someone who the Duckling wanted shot and got defended by the wolf, and you think is the wolf, you're gonna go after known non-wolf just cause you think it's more likely to happen? I disagree with Pine but NM would definitely be my call of the AP voters for wolf. I've got a third in mind, but you've decided that we need to death-tunnel, and I'm not super keen to engage on that (3rd) right now.

Also you do realize that the lynch of the day atm is UD, right? You do realize that he's wildly believed to be mafia, right? Do you think that NM and Pine are wolves for voting and/or pushing there?

Yes, I certainly give them wolf-points for it. The fact that you can understand the wolf motivation for that but not the Mafia motivation behind yesterday gives me great pause though. You're in death-tunnel mode though, I discussed this with NM yesterday, I don't believe he's this bad and I'm happy for him to stay on the UD wagon in the face of logic, since it's AI for him to do that.

[UglyDuck]

im interacting with you calling out a player that doesn't interact a lot on this point.

VOTE: vote: sando

I mean that's one way to avoid voting your partner, sure.

I'm slow, who is my partner?

[UglyDuck]

This is a blatant lie and the basis of your reasoning for why I'm a wolf.

Oh ffs, seriously? I'm talking post AP-offer, not pre. They're different parts of the game and conflating the two is just stupid, stop it.

@ud your vote on sando is blatantly survivalistic but it does make me doubt the you/sando pairing to some extent.

So, here is the thing. I came up with an idea - no one really seems to be digging it. Fine I can live with that. So the alternative is to continue playing the best I can.
At the point of time of the vote you are 100% correct that I voted for Sando based on the Ven Diagram of "people I find skummy" overlapped with "people I think could possibly be lynched over me". Survavilist and Town should essentially be considered synonyms, especially in a Vanilla game. The only thing I know for 100% sure is that I am Town - so from my POV every other person in this game is a better lynch than I am. Given the insane amount of skum reads on me, you can pretty much assume I will gladly jump on any wagon (especially one that I already had skum lean on).

[Sando]

im interacting with you calling out a player that doesn't interact a lot on this point.

VOTE: vote: sando

I mean that's one way to avoid voting your partner, sure.

I'm slow, who is my partner?

Jesus H Christ, this had really better be Mafia trying to make false associations with me, if you're town you're absolutely terrible here.

No matter what your or my alignment is, we both 100% know we're not partners with each other, so voting me is, to my eyes at least, a very easy way for you to avoid voting your partner and giving associations. Given I specifically called your plan stupid because I want to force you to associate with a potential partner and you respond by just vote-parking on me just screams to me that you're desperate to avoid interacting today. To me, this looks like you've given up on trying to survive as Mafia and you're just trying to avoid getting your partner killed.

I want to hunt for the wolf, and in that hunt I'm well aware that Mafia also could get hit and that they want to help hunt the wolf. I want to see people hunt because wolf/town/mafia have different motives here and by getting them to hunt we can potentially see some of those motives coming through. You're doing everything in your power to avoid actually hunting, that's TERRIBLE town play, or just plain old Mafia play.

[UglyDuck]

I don't think you're a wolf, for exactly the reason you're citing. I don't know who the wolf is, but I'm pretty damn sure you're not town.

I'd rather lynch *any* sort of scumread that I'm very confident on than take a gamble on someone that's 'maybe-wolf-maybe-town' because the margin of error in this game is super small and doesn't really leave much room for mistakes, and we've already blown through one of our mislynches.

OK - I agree with the first part (any skum read etc), but the second part pings me the wrong way. Like I am not arguing the margin for error is small, but to say we have "already blown through one of our mislynches..."? We have had two lynches, and on one of them we got a wolf, and then there was a mafia killed at night... when the game started did you think we would be in a BETTER spot waking up today than 1Wolf-2Mafia-5Town???

And I said all of this already:
a) You're wrong and are trying to lynch town here
b) Lynching people you know aren't wolf is beyond stupid
c) Trying to hide behind "I'd rather lynch any scum than mislynch" is also a really stupid statement, given you're saying you'd rather lynch in a pool that has less chance of producing "scum" since by your own words, it doesn't include 1/3rd of the scumpool. 3/8 or 37.5% of the pool are scum, you want to reduce that to 2/8 or 25% chance that any given lynch target is scum...can we pretty please play some poker...for money...lots of money? Because you're a terrible gambler.
d) The statement is just also extremely lazy and designed to appeal to town whilst also abrogating your responsibility.

First off, before anything else - Poker player and gambler are two very different things. However, the differences between the two are funnily actually kind of perfectly represented here. If this was gambling (or a math equasion - like let's say blackjack), then yeah... no doubt removing 1/3 of the skum pool and randomly choosing between the remaining players is bad. However, you also fucked up your math. If you remove the 1/3 skum pool it doesn't drop to 25% because it drops to 2/7 not 2/8 as you have to remove both ends. So, not that it matters, but the odds are actually 28.6%. You and me should play poker some time - for money... lots of money

More importantly I would like to point out that this mathematical error is far easier to mess up from the perspective of skum. Specifically skum speaking the the concept of removing someone from play they know to be town.

More - more importantly, while those number look potentially appealing on one end, it doesn't matter. If we are lynching for Any!Skum then no one should be removed because there are (no matter how sure you think you are) only 3 remaining players in the game that know who any skum are, and one of those players only knows their own identity, and the other two don't know the last's.

TLD;R - Removing skum from lynchpool is a bad idea bc we don't know who skum is.

Now as it so happens this game is less like BlackJack, and more like Poker - meaning there are outside influences you have to consider.
So to say lynching within 3/8 is preferable to lynching within 5/8 could potentially be true. However, this game is based on things like reads and interactions and choice.. not just math. Still irrelevant though, due to the fact that, regardless of alignment, the player on the chopping block would not vote for themselves. So the field is actually a house of 7, not of 8 (from any given individuals interpretation).

Another skummy math error btw.

All of that up there I just typed out was to point out that while math is an important instrument, as it is in poker, it is not the sole device to be relied upon. And I also believe that in this instance, that this is a freeking skumslip.

Summary - The game plan should assuredly be to isolate the skummiest players and lynch within that pool. Any other approach is, forgive me, but just incorrect. All the talk about numbers and math and chance is bullshit because at the end of the day you (or anyone) alone are not making the decision - the decision is made by the majority of remaining players in the game and their thoughts on the matter... And that is coming from the guy that is essentially being universally skum-read at this point.

[UglyDuck]

im interacting with you calling out a player that doesn't interact a lot on this point.

VOTE: vote: sando

I mean that's one way to avoid voting your partner, sure.

I'm slow, who is my partner?

Jesus H Christ, this had really better be Mafia trying to make false associations with me, if you're town you're absolutely terrible here.

No matter what your or my alignment is, we both 100% know we're not partners with each other, so voting me is, to my eyes at least, a very easy way for you to avoid voting your partner and giving associations. Given I specifically called your plan stupid because I want to force you to associate with a potential partner and you respond by just vote-parking on me just screams to me that you're desperate to avoid interacting today. To me, this looks like you've given up on trying to survive as Mafia and you're just trying to avoid getting your partner killed.

I want to hunt for the wolf, and in that hunt I'm well aware that Mafia also could get hit and that they want to help hunt the wolf. I want to see people hunt because wolf/town/mafia have different motives here and by getting them to hunt we can potentially see some of those motives coming through. You're doing everything in your power to avoid actually hunting, that's TERRIBLE town play, or just plain old Mafia play.

Yeah that didn't answer my question. I get that you and me "can't be partners" but then... there are like a lot of other people. I could of voted for any of them. Why is voting for you defending them? Why are you being so defensive actually?

[Sando]

Yeah that didn't answer my question. I get that you and me "can't be partners" but then... there are like a lot of other people. I could of voted for any of them. Why is voting for you defending them? Why are you being so defensive actually?

You're kidding right?

1) I'm saying you and your plan is bad and scummy because you're trying to avoid giving associations about your scumpartner.
2) You follow this by voting someone I know 100% is not your partner.
3) You then can't understand why I say "nice way to avoid giving associations"

[Sando]

First off, before anything else - Poker player and gambler are two very different things.

No they're not, you're getting confused, all poker players are gamblers, not all gamblers are poker players. That's different from "very different things".

If you remove the 1/3 skum pool it doesn't drop to 25% because it drops to 2/7 not 2/8 as you have to remove both ends. So, not that it matters, but the odds are actually 28.6%. You and me should play poker some time - for money... lots of money

God yes please. I'll argue the point with skitter about using 7 vs 8, but your point is just stupid. Let's use NM since we're not sure on his alignment and you as an example:

UD - we don't believe you're a Wolf, so there's a 2/8 (or 2/7 if you want me to remove myself as per skitters point, but 8 gives nicer numbers so ner ner) chance that they're scum = 25%
NM - Could be wolf or Mafia, so there's a 3/8 (37.5%) chance they're scum. Technically there's a slightly higher chance he's Wolf since we're giving non-wolf cred to certain people, but that just makes the numbers more stark. The calc should actually be 1/7 chance of being Wolf plus 2/8 chance of being Mafia, giving him ~3.15/8 (~39.3%) chance of being scum. That goes up even further if you want to give me non-wolf cred.

The only reason to change the denominator is due to knowing you yourself are town, you change the numerator to account for removing options for people, and you change both if you want to calculate them separately.

The calc is very simple, it's (number of scumslots you could be) / (number of people who could be that scumslot). At least skitter is arguing about reads throwing that out and understands the intricacies of giving yourself town-guarantee.

[UglyDuck]

First off, before anything else - Poker player and gambler are two very different things.

No they're not, you're getting confused, all poker players are gamblers, not all gamblers are poker players. That's different from "very different things".

If you remove the 1/3 skum pool it doesn't drop to 25% because it drops to 2/7 not 2/8 as you have to remove both ends. So, not that it matters, but the odds are actually 28.6%. You and me should play poker some time - for money... lots of money

God yes please. I'll argue the point with skitter about using 7 vs 8, but your point is just stupid. Let's use NM since we're not sure on his alignment and you as an example:

UD - we don't believe you're a Wolf, so there's a 2/8 (or 2/7 if you want me to remove myself as per skitters point, but 8 gives nicer numbers so ner ner) chance that they're scum = 25%
NM - Could be wolf or Mafia, so there's a 3/8 (37.5%) chance they're scum. Technically there's a slightly higher chance he's Wolf since we're giving non-wolf cred to certain people, but that just makes the numbers more stark. The calc should actually be 1/7 chance of being Wolf plus 2/8 chance of being Mafia, giving him ~3.15/8 (~39.3%) chance of being scum. That goes up even further if you want to give me non-wolf cred.

The only reason to change the denominator is due to knowing you yourself are town, you change the numerator to account for removing options for people, and you change both if you want to calculate them separately.

The calc is very simple, it's (number of scumslots you could be) / (number of people who could be that scumslot). At least skitter is arguing about reads throwing that out and understands the intricacies of giving yourself town-guarantee.

My point is obviously that you did not remove specifically yourself.

[skitter30]

I'll respond to all that later today or tomorrow at some point; I have finals this week

[Pine]

@Mod: Please prod Fumuki. They haven't posted all phase.

Also holy shit, I just ISOed Sando, whom I've had difficulty getting a read on, and the associatives with AP are *outstanding*. Early baseless Townread, works in coordination with AP on D1, ignores TW's Seer claim, never votes AP, wants to let AP live?!, goes after other people.

This is our WW. Also, he was *obsessed* with the Seer role, even before it was revealed. There were FORTY-FOUR references to the Seer on the first page of his ISO, most of it before TW claimed. Sando views the Seer as a threat. Check this post out:

SANDO REALLY, BUT FRICKING REALLY MAY NEED ROPE

Not only that, if I compare to Open 720 and comprove that he's off, I'll be asking for some explanations to some players here that played there as well and didn't say anything about him

Rofl, out of CJ, NM, Pintu and Duckling, the person who flaked out wants to accuse me of being different from there?

Where's that "proof", game going too fast for you to post it?

Your analysis of wolf-game is flat out wrong by the way.

While we're on the topic (and this might help you realise the error of your ways Fumuki) of 720, I'm putting it out there now: Do not CC as seer, especially D1. Scum and Wolf optimal strategy is going to nearly always be claim seer, if you're the seer, let them claim and just quietly go about your business. If you die, we shall avenge you, promise.

He's trying to preemptively muddy the waters and cloud any Seer claims...which is exactly what he does later. TW claims Seer, and Sando practically ignores it to tilt at other windmills.

VOTE: Sando

[skitter30]

TW, we need to heavily disagree here. Sando didn't notice until a minute ago that Mafia has no reason to want to out the Seer. Do you think if he's scum here he would be thinking only about the other team and not what he himself should do?

It makes no sense duckling. There's some probability of him being mafia, but if Sando is scum, he's very likely flipping wolf here.

Yo TW, have your fun with Fumi, but it's just occurred to me: Why are people so concerned about which scumfaction the person is? Town are the least likely to care about what faction someone is other than that they're scum, at least while seer is alive and well.

Aside, this post is hilarious given the argument I've been having with you for the past couple of days, where this is *my* position and you're arguing the opposite.

[ArcAngel9]

VOTE COUNT - 3.3

Pine

-

skitter30

-Sando, RubyRed

Sando

- skitter30, UglyDuck, Pine

ceejayvinoya

-

Ruby Red

-

UglyDuck

- ,

Not_Mafia

- ,

Fumuki

-

Not Voting

, , , ceejayvinoya, , , Not_Mafia, Fumuki

With 8 alive it takes 5 for a lynch and 4 for no lynch.
Day 3 ends in (expired on 2018-06-22 07:40:00)

[/b][/color]

[ArcAngel9]

Fumuki have been prodded again. He/She will have 24 hours to respond and make their post before I force to replace them.

[Sando]

Also holy shit, I just ISOed Sando, whom I've had difficulty getting a read on, and the associatives with AP are *outstanding*. Early baseless Townread, works in coordination with AP on D1, ignores TW's Seer claim, never votes AP, wants to let AP live?!, goes after other people.

This is our WW. Also, he was *obsessed* with the Seer role, even before it was revealed. There were FORTY-FOUR references to the Seer on the first page of his ISO, most of it before TW claimed. Sando views the Seer as a threat. Check this post out:

Oh Pine...you silly goose.

I play PR roles from VT better than the PRs, it's just my thing.

Yeah I got the AP read wrong, it wasn't baseless though, at least not beyond the first time I said it. Yeah I tend to sheep D1 on my TRs.

On the seer+AP: It was the correct call from me, as evidenced by the fact that you're floundering today. We had 2 wolves, it takes 2 lynches to get rid of them all and we can't speed that up. Lynching AP first in that or second does not change the speed of which we catch the second wolf. Leaving him alive provides potential associatives, and also provides a small chance that the seer stays alive.

[Sando]

TW, we need to heavily disagree here. Sando didn't notice until a minute ago that Mafia has no reason to want to out the Seer. Do you think if he's scum here he would be thinking only about the other team and not what he himself should do?

It makes no sense duckling. There's some probability of him being mafia, but if Sando is scum, he's very likely flipping wolf here.

Yo TW, have your fun with Fumi, but it's just occurred to me: Why are people so concerned about which scumfaction the person is? Town are the least likely to care about what faction someone is other than that they're scum, at least while seer is alive and well.

Aside, this post is hilarious given the argument I've been having with you for the past couple of days, where this is *my* position and you're arguing the opposite.

Yeah turns out there's a difference between D1 and D3 with only a single wolf alive and the seer dead...

Honestly the fact that I get constantly SRd on this site for pointing out the best townplays available is a constant source of frustration.

[Sando]

ignores TW's Seer claim, never votes AP, wants to let AP live?!

Oh also Pine, this is literally my town-meta right here as well.

[Pine]

Sure sounds legit, thanks for the self-meta

#sarcasm

[Sando]

Sure sounds legit, thanks for the self-meta

#sarcasm

If you can't dredge up the intellect to actually engage on why it was the correct call then I guess it's pointless to engage.

FTR on me:

Skitter

understands what I'm on about and disagrees, also plenty for people to read

UD

is sheeping/clueless on what I've been saying, I personally think genuinely

Pine

is choosing to ignore the actual motivation and reasoning behind what happened yesterday, fairly opportunistically I'd say

[Sando]

Also you do realize that the lynch of the day atm is UD, right? You do realize that he's wildly believed to be mafia, right? Do you think that NM and Pine are wolves for voting and/or pushing there?

Thought about this overnight, and you're right. NM was my 3rd WW coming into today and I didn't give him WW points for this, probably because after the last few posts of yesterday I just expected it and glazed over.

Personally I think Pine's latest push on me is pretty terrible, but happy to let that play out.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Not_Mafia

[Not_Mafia]

Lol

[Pine]

Yeah nailed it

Sando going into emergency flail mode

Vote that fucko

[Sando]

Yeah nailed it

Sando going into emergency flail mode

Vote that fucko

NM knows for sure that my 1716 is true.

[skitter30]

Honestly the fact that I get constantly SRd on this site for pointing out the best townplays available is a constant source of frustration.

That's not why I'm scumreading you

I get that you have a different philosophy on how to play multiball. I don't have a problem with that. I have a problem with you scumreading me for being a wolf when my actions *don't make sense as coming from a wolf* in a holistic sense and you're ignoring that.

You're effectively scumreading me for having a different philosophy wrt multiball than you do because you claim my POV pushes a wolf agenda although you can't explain how the rest of my behavior makes sense as coming from a wolf. Also I was pushing this POV waaaaay back on Day1 during the esp thing, which is before there were any wolves in the picture at all, and this is literally how I always play multiball.

--

I agree with you that pine's hop onto your wagon is meh; his case feels like it's pushing a narrative. I went through your ISO and I don't think I'm seeing the same thing that he's seeing. Like I don't think it's accurate to say that you're *obsessed* with the seer. I do agree that you do spend a lot of time talking about it though. Also I don't think he actually looked through those 44 hits for the word 'seer' since quite a few of those hits aren't things you actually said, but rather you responding to posts that other people wrote that had the word 'seer' in it; a good 9 of those hits come from 824 alone, so describing it that way makes it look like you talked about the seer more than you did imo.

Although from

Sando thought seer was a threat to both Mafia and WW, Fumu corrected me.

I can see the emphasis-on-seer thing coming from mafia!you given this.

--

Also moving your vote off of me to someone that I want to push because I pointed out that you're overlooking him is kinda meh.

[Sando]

That's not why I'm scumreading you

Pine is, that wasn't in direct response to you, the quote made it look that way, apologies. 1718 agrees with what you're saying there.

Also moving your vote off of me to someone that I want to push because I pointed out that you're overlooking him is kinda meh.

He's my 3rd today, but I'm ignoring my 2nd for now, reasons (it's pretty obvious if you look at my posts today).

I agree with you that pine's hop onto your wagon is meh; his case feels like it's pushing a narrative. I went through your ISO and I don't think I'm seeing the same thing that he's seeing. Like I don't think it's accurate to say that you're *obsessed* with the seer. I do agree that you do spend a lot of time talking about it though.

I feel the most egregious thing is to claim that I ignored the seer claim. I specifically went into APs offer as it related to the seer and outlined, extensively, why the best chance of seer-TW staying alive was to lynch outside of AP/UD yesterday. Disagree with that view all you want, but to say I ignored the seer claim is as you say, pushing a narrative. Sure, I didn't drop down and worship at the altar of TW-seer, but I made extensive reference to it in my posts.

I get that you have a different philosophy on how to play multiball. I don't have a problem with that. I have a problem with you

scumreading me for being a wolf when my actions *don't make sense as coming from a wolf* in a holistic sense and you're ignoring that.

You're effectively scumreading me for having a different philosophy wrt multiball than you do because you claim my POV pushes a wolf agenda although you can't explain how the rest of my behavior makes sense as coming from a wolf. Also I was pushing this POV waaaaay back on Day1 during the esp thing, which is before there were any wolves in the picture at all, and this is literally how I always play multiball.

I'm not ignoring it, I've acknowledged it, but I also acknowledge that there's no-one who makes perfect sense as wolf. Nothing ever makes perfect sense, the question is who makes the most sense. There's things that point to you as wolf, there's things that point away from you as wolf. I'm weighing those up on the scales, we simply disagree about which side that scale is going on.

Also, I've acknowledged that I appreciate your reading being different from mine of how to play multiball, see things like 1718 again. I've said a few times that you clearly have an understanding of what's going on with things like reads vs odds, and whether we should lynch anyone vs only-wolf, especially in contrast to someone like UD, and NM.