Micro 812 - The Arena II - Game Over

[Irrelephant11]

I'd narrowed it down to two players, and mylo is one of them. I'll be voting him, probably. I'm not ready to L-1, though, since I'm new and want to be a part of discussion before hammer

[Irrelephant11]

How do you share reads in this setup without helping mafia more than town

[Irrelephant11]

Well anyway it's certainly not something_smart

Scum tried D1 and D2 to choose someone who would challenge him, so he's town

[Irrelephant11]

Why is Mylo town?

[Irrelephant11]

mmm true. His ISO is just so, so crappy though. He's third vote on every lynch, defended NM until NM's death was inevitable... But yeah, you're prolly both town at this point. I think I'm more likely to be paranoid about him, though. Like I really townread you, and the only towny thing about him now is his poor D4 choice to go up against you

[Irrelephant11]

NM should gladiator something_smart

This is why scum thought he would gladiate SS, or at least scum SS probably doesn’t choose Flubbernugget here

I mean I’m just gonna be honest it’s always me/ceej/mylo. I’m always gladiating ceej after we lynch mylo here,

[Irrelephant11]

Like as long as Dunn and SS are alive for LYLO we win this every time

[Irrelephant11]

I think scum picking himself N1 is unlikely and the pick being NM makes it less likely to me.
@everyone. Answer me. If you were scum, would you pick your teammate or yourself for d1 gladiator? Honestly?

If I was scum I'd convince my partner to put us both up on the block on day 1 so that one of us would be cleared as town for the rest of the game

Flubbernugget is the Gladiator for Day 2, who has challenged Not_Mafia

Yeah but these two posts were very close to each other and NM seems like exactly the scum player to be like “oh perfect now that someone has said it it’s the best WIFOM of all”. I townread Flubbernugget more than ceejay or mylo though because of D1 overall. His pushes were good and brought about most of that day’s readable content. Anyway I’m being completely transparent because fmpov we kill mylo and then me/ceej in whatever order and win, with flubber being the only other possible scum I think

[Irrelephant11]

VOTE: myloninja

[Irrelephant11]

Lols I honestly thought scum picked NM for the wifom. Oh poor me

What is this supposed to mean?

Clearly they did pick him for WIFOM.

I would also like a response here

[Irrelephant11]

Is there anything strange signified by the willingness of the three of us in the scumpool to be killed? I don't necessarily think we should change the plan just because we're each showing willingness atm, but I am curious to hear others' thoughts

[Irrelephant11]

Scum controls the initial Gladiate so anything town premeditates between two players isn't happening

Why did you say this?

[Irrelephant11]

ceejay, if you're ready to move things along, why haven't you voted?

[Irrelephant11]

Also, since we aren't actually 100% sure both mylo and SS are town, which would you rather lynch?

Also also, why are you townreading flub?

[Irrelephant11]

Ikr

[Irrelephant11]

Dunnstral, after ceejay answers your question I’d love to hear your answer too

[Irrelephant11]

AHHHHh I feel bad for this set-up and BNL Somehow we just got very inactive players.

Technically, if we have three strong townreads {Flubber, SS, Dunn} We win lynching out of that regardless.

Exactly!

who to lynch today for starters.

What do you think?

VOTE: Something_Smart

I'm just paranoid of this guy for some reason.

lol okay great it's just ceejay

[Irrelephant11]

Can we lynch mylo now and be done with this day

[Irrelephant11]

@Mod: V/LA till Monday

[Irrelephant11]

VOTE: ceejayvinova

Do we want to spend any time discussing dunn/flub/ss endgame just in case?

[Irrelephant11]

welp

I feel like an idiot

[Irrelephant11]

In 353 I had misread the votecount and thought it said three votes were needed. I wanted ceejay's input before lynching him

Probably my slot looks dumb enough at this point to only be scum, but I'll do my best to help town before y'all lynch me

I do think it's flub

[Irrelephant11]

Though at the same time it could be SS because I was chosen after making it v obvious I'd choose flub

Dunnstral is my strongest townread and I'll feel like an idiot if it's Dunn

[Irrelephant11]

Right. You're only seeing that in hindsight?

[Irrelephant11]

Yes. We should be discussing that endgame, because if CJ doesn't flip scum I'm expecting it to happen.

It took me awhile to figure out (like right now I'm figuring out) why this was a scummy post

It presumes I'm the next lynch. Not only that, though --> It presumes I'm the next lynch

and I'm town

. Why would town say this? "Yes, I think we'll probably lynch you next, townie. Then I'll hopefully win LYLO"

ughhhh it's probably SS and I gladiated the wrong personnnnn

[Irrelephant11]

By accident aka scumslip

Why did you gladiate ceej?

[Irrelephant11]

Sure it is, if you're scum it's an accidental slip of your alignment. That's a scumslip.

I mean you're 1/2 the votes, if you're townreading me are you thinking of voting Flub?

Who do you think is more likely to be scum based on your being chosen last game day?

[Irrelephant11]

What? You're being weirdly pedantic about "scumslip". I think you

intentionally

posted about what you

thought

would happen without 100% thinking through how that revealed that you knew my alignment. Given that you're 1/2 of today's voters and you're not voting me, how exactly did you foresee my being the next lynch?

If flub gladiates me or vice verse, you're not voting me
If dunn gladiates me or vice versa, (it sounds like) you're not voting me
If one of us gladiates the other, I guess I'm probably the one to go, but you wouldn't gladiate me and I said I thought you were town, so that wasn't happening either.

You at least have to admit that your post shows some level of lack of thought. Imo that lack of thought shows that you're scum
I now think you're voting flub because dunn is more likely to vote me in lylo

[Irrelephant11]

I mean I'm a little surprised you're townreading me, honestly. but I have never claimed that every word I post is completely intentional and I don't post things by accident. I do post things I shouldn't sometimes, as both alignments.

I just find a contradiction between your "I only do things completely purposefully, so I

could not scumslip

" and "Iunno I didn't think about it too hard"

Also re: "it seemed like everyone else who was alive on D4, including you, was in agreement that you should be the next lynch."
- if you townread me it's super weird to suggest that "yeah you'll be the next lynch, oh well"
- why expect that lylo will happen with you/dunn/flub, rather than suggest you're likely to try to keep me alive?

[Irrelephant11]

The one where I'm this lynch and the game keeps going

[Irrelephant11]

Like honestly if I'm the lylo lynch vs ss or if you (dunnstral) are going to gladiate me for lylo and leave it up to ss then lynch me now, probably? I haven't thought this alllll the way through? but I'm pretty sure it'd be better to lynch me now if you're sure you'd want me dead in lylo (if flubber is town)

I have 0 interest in staying alive if it makes it harder for town to win
In the meantime I'm going to try to out scum

Since you want to lynch me, which of the other two do you think is scum? You're the one who will have to sort them next game day.

pedit: SS is super contradictory here. "Everything I say is intentional." "I wasn't thinking about it." "I was sorta thinking about it, but my reads are bad so who knew if you were town." "I thought you were town but also thought you'd probably just die idk."

[Irrelephant11]

mm I agree the logic is iffy but I was hoping my "completely transparent reads" would be read with some WIFOM by scum because we just talked about how you shouldn't share reads

pedit: mylo, ceej, flub

[Irrelephant11]

I know, I meant "which if you had to choose"? So we could talk about that

[Irrelephant11]

I'm actually sort of pissed because I think I recommended the "let's narrow things down to flub/dunn/ss" plan and now it's confirmed fmpov that that was a mistake

[Irrelephant11]

gtg till tomorrow

I should probably be today's lynch to remove wifom

@all Leave me some questions for tomorrow regarding each other so I can help find the scum

This situation is v annoying, sorry for the ways I've participated in bringing us to this point

flub is conspicuously quiet

[Irrelephant11]

@all Leave me some questions for tomorrow regarding each other so I can help find the scum

Or don't, I guess.

ftr the reason I think it still might be flub is I think it's more likely that scum!flub gladiated scum than scum!SS aimed twice in a row to get gladiated by townies

I'll be around more later. I also realized last night that I should probably stop trying to influence the lynch either way - lynch whoever y'all think is scummier, even if that's me, but don't let me dictate the lynch.

[Irrelephant11]

SS and Dunn are you two going to talk about your vote? I find it weird you're not really talking about your disagreement over who to vote (obv not in an associational way, but still weird)

Flubber come also play this game, please. Pretty sure I asked you a question last page, and I'm not gonna let you lurk your way into lylo as scum

[Irrelephant11]

It was mostly because he was around. I am split between the two of you.

[Irrelephant11]

Not fully caught up

It's really weird that you gladiated me and are pressuring ss as scum

Caught up yet? Two pages to read

Where y'all at? There's no consensus on the lynch here so it's not like you can just sit back while elephant makes noise. Like some amount of work has to be done here regardless of which player you are reading this. I'd love to discuss who is most likely scum (probably for after my own flip), but no one seems to want to talk much?

[Irrelephant11]

Someone has to be town. Here are the AI moments from Dunn:

Had issues connecting to MS, finally solved today. let me read up.

I know there's a lot to take in but let us know when you've processed it all.

And then I decided to challenge him

Even if you're town if you're going to get picked again and do dumb challenges I don't see why we should keep you around and I'm not seeing a case against scioness

VOTE: not_mafia

A weird distancing attempt if s/s

Weird wagon movement going on right now, I'd think if both of these guys are town mafia are more likely to want Scioness Sajj voted out today allowing them to pick NM in the future or for wifom.

I'll keep the specifics of my reads close to my chest until the next gladiator is chosen at least

Keeping reads hidden is towny, and this is a really subtle distancing attempt if scum.

I think scum picking himself N1 is unlikely

Why?

@everyone. Answer me. If you were scum, would you pick your teammate or yourself for d1 gladiator? Honestly

I probably wouldn't pick myself, I might pick my partner though

You realise that involves your partner picking themselves right?

The scummiest of associations, actually, but the only thing I would scumread Dunn for.

VOTE: Not Mafia

Votes NM when he didn't need to

just realized this was hammer D2. Frick am I reading Dunn wrong

Came into today thinking S_S was a good pick for scum, but I didn't pick him because I didn't think I'd be gladiator if he was scum, if that makes sense. There's actually a good chance that he's town since I got gladiated here
ZZZX also looks like scum from associations with the N_M wagons on day 1 and 2

Unique logic that seems hard to think of as scum
Or a smart way to avoid going up against someone who might win a challenge hmmm

UNVOTE:
Gonna research something

More likely to come from town imo

who to lynch today for starters.

What do you think?

A towny response to a lurky slot
Although... no follow up. wOW I didn't see myself scumreading Dunn here but it really is making sense

Alright so I was townreading Flubber on day 1, and then he gladiated scum - I feel if that were a scum move he'd ride the credit harder rather than fading into the background
At the same time I said Something_Smart was scummy at one point (I believe was an unlikely lynch too) and I got gladiated which I've said points to Something_Smart as town

Irrelephant can you give a situation where either or both of these people could be scum

I think I thought this was towny but I don't remember why

It's actually now a great illustration of why Dunn/me make the most sense as scum, assuming Occam's razor hasn't been out-WIFOM'd at this point (which is not a given).
Interesting that scum!Dunn doesn't just join SS on finding a way to scumread Flub, though. I'd be great lynchbait for lylo probably

[Irrelephant11]

On balance I'm not finding any specific thing from Dunnstral THAT scummy, but it does require the fewest leaps of logic. I'm unsure what to do with this information.

[Irrelephant11]

Hammering a partner just doesn't deserve the same towncred as starting the wagon, which for some reason is how I had remembered it. It's more NAI and that was me losing my townread there

Yeah fair they probably wouldn't have won the challenge

I guess there's just WIFOM in every remaining slot fmpov

I know that one of these is true:
- SS challenges two players likely to challenge him early on
- Flub challenges his scum partner and then does a mediocre job of claiming the towncred (though maybe this should actually point me back to him, don't want to be too obvious)
- Dunn and NM had some bold partner theater D1 about "I'd make my partner do it" "Well that would require your partner being willing" *wink wink nudge nudge*


Like I said I don't think you're that scummy compared to the other two but the last one is the smallest leap in logic

[Irrelephant11]

Prod dodging to say I think SS makes the most sense, though I’m curious to hear Flub and SS’s thoughts on Dunn’s potential scum theater D1 with NM. Was NM trying to shade Dunn in advance of his own flip? Or lampshade their shared alignment?

I’m really clueless and paranoid, sorry. I’ll try to clear up my paranoia before day end but this happens to me sometimes

[Irrelephant11]

K then I think it's Something_Smart

Sorry for paranoia I really feel like I've ruined things. I do wish y'all would engage more because unfortunately I am town and I'm one more pair of eyes before you lynch me

But also I still find it weird how Dunn and SS aren't interacting, like you don't agree on the lynch hello

[Irrelephant11]

(In fact it would be really weird to challenge Not_Mafia after it was the consensus that Not_Mafia was town for being chosen, so maybe it does in fact demonstrate extra information.)

Actually this is v true.

My dunnstral paranoia is gone, his game looks the most like I would want town to look this game. Looking at things from a "who might be scum" the answer was "Everyone", but looking at things from "whose game includes the most towny moments that would be hard to fake as scum" and the answer is 100% dunn, followed by ss.

I'm somewhere around ~66% flub/30% ss/3% dunnstral

Dunnstral, if you think SS is more likely scum than flubber you should definitely vote me. If you think flubber is more likely than SS I'm not as sure (given you thinking I'm most likely scum). Obviously I would personally like to stay alive somewhat because fmpov that allows for more opportunities to hit scum, but I also want to avoid the situation where I come to lylo as the scummiest looking player and end up in a tvt, which does not allow for town win at all. So like from your pov Dunn I might be the better lynch, but I'd really love to hear you settle on SSvFlub before you lynch me.

@Mod, given the number of prods and two of us being v/la over the weekend can I request 24 hour extension?

[Irrelephant11]

My paranoia mostly went away. When I was looking for hard-to-fake-as-town things I thought on balance the fact multiple people who were willing to gladiate SS getting chosen should count more in his favor. Flub gladiating NM looks scummier again because we know NM is willing to do WIFOMy things.

I'm pretty paranoid as town and it makes my reads fluctuate and it makes it harder for me to be townread. I'm working on it

[Irrelephant11]

Wow this seemed like the least likely scenario, me not being in the duo

Make your cases I’m no troll, I’m town

[Irrelephant11]

SS who were all your choices for gladiator

[Irrelephant11]

Interesting. Why me?

[Irrelephant11]

If you want to know anything else like why I picked SS tonight and not you or who my gladiates would be or why I can answer tomorrow

I will want this, yes

[Irrelephant11]

agree that this was an unlikely situation. From my point of view, Dunn orchestrated this situation completely. (Picking himself, and then challenging me.) That makes sense, since the one thing he was most confident about was that you suspected me over him.

Why wouldn't Dunn just make me the challenger?

[Irrelephant11]

Alright, I've learned my lesson - don't ask wifomy questions

SS take me through sumstral from the start of the game. It's confirmed for you so help me see it

[Irrelephant11]

Alright, I've learned my lesson - don't ask wifomy questions

SS take me through Scumstral from the start of the game. It's confirmed for you so help me see it

ebwop

[Irrelephant11]

yes, but I won't be sharing much until you and Dunnstral have both said your piece.

Why the switch from mylo nights 1 and 2 to ceejay n3?

[Irrelephant11]

Anything else you can think of to clear things up for me more?

[Irrelephant11]

SS my question was more “what other information helps me solve this game?”
Dunn if you can think of anything else go for it

[Irrelephant11]

K if that's all you have to share I'll be re-reading, then sharing my thoughts, with room for you to point out anything you think I've gotten wrong, then casting my vote

[Irrelephant11]

I interrupted my own re-reading to gather these thoughts about the ideal picks for each of you last night if scum:

Something_Scum's options last night:

1 Choose Irrelephant, who's more likely to gladiate SS. Dunn might lynch Irrelephant. 4/10 [rating here is how good of choice this would be for this player]

2 Choose Dunn, who's more likely to gladiate Irrelephant. If not, Irrelephant is more likely to lynch SS. 7.5/10

3 Be the challenger, gladiate Irrelephant. Dunn is more likely to lynch Irrelephant because "SS was the challenger" WIFOM & expressed reads. 6/10 (+1 is 7/10)
---This requires the idea that SS would be able to argue that scum!Irrelephant would choose SS as the challenger, which... I guess works. +1/10

4 Be the challenger, gladiate Dunn. Probably loses to Dunn on this one. 4/10
---This requires the idea that SS would be able to argue that scum!Dunnstral would choose SS as the challenger, which... doesn't work as well. No point change.

Scumstral's choices last night:

1 Choose Irrelephant, who almost certainly gladiates SS, unless WIFOMrelephant aims it back at Dunn (ftr I did gladiate SS last night). Even then, a medium-good shot at winning against Irrelephant. 8.5/10

2 Choose SS, who probably chooses Dunnstral. Probably 50/50 shot here, maybe slightly better. 6/10

3 Be the challenger, gladiate Irrelephant. Kind of a weird one, includes a lot of wifom, maybe Dunnstral argues out of this one and wins. 5/10 (-1 is 4/10)
---Requires being able to argue the idea that scum!Irrelephant would choose Dunnstral as challenger, which really doesn't make much sense. -1/10

4 Be the challenger, gladiate SS. A good shot at winning against SS, given what I've said before this game day. 7/10 (+1 is 8/10)
---Requires being able to argue the idea that scum!SS would choose Dunnstral as challenger, which makes a lot of sense, actually. +1/10

This analysis did not get me as far as I wanted it to, but it does suggest that Dunn being the challenger is best choice Scum!SS could have made, while scum!Dunn only makes this choice if he thinks the benefit of wifom outweighs the loss of a bit of win equity (i.e. this was Dunnstral's second-best choice if scum, which only makes sense as a wifomy move).

Feel free to point out what I missed here

[Irrelephant11]

he can make a more convincing case than I can today

SS do you agree with this idea

[Irrelephant11]

the idea that Dunnstral can make a more convincing case than you, that is?

[Irrelephant11]

NM is both one of the easiest yet hardest players to lynch in general. So I am expecting someone who picked him day 1 to know enough about him.

Otherwise it's a weird pick

Are you assuming NM is town?

had the same thought about post 31

In other news Blackstar is scummy

Why did you think this dunn? Here are Blackstar's posts at the time:

Hi

What's his reputation?

Well, I am more about waiting for something to happen at this point.

We can't vote so we can't really apply pressure yet..

Pretty much

[Irrelephant11]

Wait yeah actually Dunnstral who did you pick N1? You talk about picking blackstar for his D2 play but he's the first in your list? And then you only talk about picking ceej once but he's in your list twice? I'm confused in regards to your 454

[Irrelephant11]

Nevermind I re-read and it makes sense if you just accidentally put ceej in there twice. Please verify this though and answer my 472

[Irrelephant11]

mm I think the choices of who would be challenger all game lean toward Scumstral
But SS's day play comes across much scummier

hmmmm

[Irrelephant11]

@Mod: Low Activity till a few hours after deadline. Any chance of an extension?

SS you've done a lot less to help town clear up alignment, you don't look like you've been sorting as much as Dunn has, and you really didn't interact with the wagons on days NM was up for a vote

[Irrelephant11]

Dunn help me see SS’s motivation in the challenger choices each night

[Irrelephant11]

Wow I’m running out of time

I did think more about night choices and SS choosing mostly randomly actually makes about the same amount of sense here as Dunnstral choosing intentionally

[Irrelephant11]

I don't agree with the assumption that I would have seen Dunn as more likely to challenge you. He voted Flubber which at least showed some indication of townreading you, and he never really made his opinion on either of us clear.

And I definitely would not have trusted Dunn to gladiate who I expected him to, especially with what he pulled on day 3, and indeed it does seem right from town!Dunn's perspective to gladiate me, since scum!you would never make him the challenger and risk having ME decide between you two after you just spent all that time calling me scum.

It seemed fairly clear that the most likely challenge would be between me and you, and as scum I would have trusted in my ability to out-argue you more than my ability to out-WIFOM Dunn. If I weren't still sticking to my random plan (and it would probably have been smart to abandon it at that point), I would have made myself gladiator and challenged you.

I don't know why he didn't pick you, but I can guess that he probably expected a quick win. (Which I do have to thank you for not giving to him.) It's just a question of, does he think you will scumread me more with no discussion or with discussion. And if the answer to that question is unclear, then it's equally good for him to make you the gladiator as it is for him to challenge me-- both will result in a win if you ultimately end up scumreading me.

It's definitely plausible that he could believe that you have more doubt than you let on, but that he can make a more convincing case than I can today and remove some of that doubt for when you vote.

That all make sense? Was just trying to get all my thoughts out, and if it got a bit jumbled I can definitely clarify.

Why did it seem clear the challenge would be between us?

Again, there is no reason for me to gladiate someone else [on day 3] and then say [S_S is] town if I'm mafia, it just makes my stuff harder

This actually makes up a decent part of my argument. This would be completely true... but he didn't persist with it. He said it made me town until he decided it didn't, and while that isn't something town wouldn't do, it certainly does not make his job harder as scum.

Yes please provide links

[Irrelephant11]

That's my playstyle. I've learned from experience that generally when I try to drive discussion, it ends badly.

And also... I realize it's WIFOM but I wouldn't ignore my partner like that, and I really do believe that Not_Mafia is prime bus material in an nightless game where low-content players rarely survive to endgame (so I probably would bus him, especially on day 2).

I did have bad feels around Dunn's Not_Mafia vote on day 1 for the same reason as I suspected Flubber-- Not_Mafia WAS a bad vote that day. And Dunn loves to distance like that (I can provide links if you'd like).

Oops mobile I meant provide links here

[Irrelephant11]

Okay I'm here till deadline

Prolly gonna spend most of the time re-reading, but just in case are either of you here?

[Irrelephant11]

K goo to know, I'll try to get any questions I have in an hour+ before deadline

[Irrelephant11]

Happy scumday ZZZX.

Dunn's logic is solid (I similarly did not challenge ZZZX despite him being the obvious pick from my POV).

Still would like to hear from ZZZX before deciding how to proceed.

Why was ZZZX the obvious pick from your pov? This sounds like you're talking about scum gladiation, because you never mentioned ZZZX before this point

[Irrelephant11]

I'm drowning in wifom over here

[Irrelephant11]

Not that it's anyone's fault there just isn't an obvious choice like I thought there was overnight

[Irrelephant11]

Literally in the past fifteen minutes I've seriously considered voting each of you multiple times

Not sure what's left to do here to help myself sort

[Irrelephant11]

VOTE: Something_Smart

[Irrelephant11]

forget me

I literally typed out VOTE: dunnstral, then deleted it and wrote SS. I learned some things, though. Sigh.

[Irrelephant11]

rip ss

[Irrelephant11]

Dunnstral deserved the win

At least 1/3 the townies lurked their way out of the game, so that made it v hard and we might have won if it wasn't the case

[Irrelephant11]

Yeah that was ~1/3 of why I almost voted you. The more I thought about it the more it seemed like scum wanting the safety of control. But it also made sense from SS's pov, so it worked out for you

The biggest tip off was you voting Flubber.

but ugh SS's arguments just seemed to contradict in scummy ways. Like he argued that you lost your towniness for choosing him as the gladiator, but he also said that if he were scum he'd have no clue who town-you would pick, since you're so unpredictable. It looked like scum fishing for a reason to say you were scummy while not actually believing it himself

But I also should have known from other games I've played that self-contradiction is almost always town
ughhhh I'm so sad I typed out dunnstral first and then lost
Should have listened to my gut instead of out-thinking it

[Irrelephant11]

I think the results of this game will not help with Irrelephant's paranoia...

Actually though dunnstral got me this time I think I would be a lot more clearheaded if I were in a similar situation next time

Oh come on...

Town are cross nominating but scum are self selecting...

[Irrelephant11]

I also enjoyed the setup and would play again. I suspect a large issue in this particular run was that you had a low-content set of players. That play style is not ideal for this setup. Maybe make that clear during signups, and then this would be less likely to be an issue?

[Irrelephant11]

Scum won both times but I don't feel it's scum sided

Agreed, I think lylo is likely to happen by virtue of the easy townpoints for scum bussing but we almost won in lylo anyway. Like fmpov it was 50/50.

I think allowing self-voting would allow for lazier townplay. Players in the arena can advocate for their own lynch, but being able to choose who you want to challenge

is

the vote.

I want to congratulate Dunnstral and NM for having the funniest scum theater this game btw