Newbie 1882 - Game Over

[UglyDuck]

There is a higher chance the IC will be town than scum, there is no reason to vote for them before they have done anything suspicious.

Assuming that the entire site is not rigged and it is random chance equally on roles - why do you assume this?

[UglyDuck]

sorry all I had some IRL stuff pop up right when I jumped in this. It is done now so I should be around.

I still don't get the comment about "ICs being more likely to be town" - however, I did read Chardev's response. It also makes me think Chardev is skum because town does not normally speak for others this early on.


so

VOTE: Chardev

[UglyDuck]

Since I had a good go at the casino, I’ll give it a try. Preflop, an IC is 78% likely to role town - the same as you and me.

Accurate - however, IC's in n008 games are also going to be "superior at the game". So someone wanting to lynch them, given they have the same 22% chance to role skum as the rest of us, strikes me as skummy. I believe the Pro Town play would be to not lynch the strong player for as long as possible. If they are Town then, Skum is forced to either keep them alive for WIFOM or kill them off. If they are Skum then they will assuredly help with the Skum teams attack, but at a certain point they will be suspected anyways for simply being alive still in the game.

In the end it is just a math problem - and I believe that the 22% of the time the IC is Skum is out weighed by the 88% of the time they will be Town. Percentages aside, the input they provide in comparison to the rest of the players is going to be useful to use later on in the game. So keeping them alive for "a while" normally seems like an appealing play to me.

On the other hand, it is very hard to read new players. Especially on such a large site where they may not in fact be a new player. A new player has the same 22% chance of being skum as an IC.
However, if the new player is actually an experienced player, and Town, they will help... as opposed to a new yet experienced player that is Skum would be more likely to play the "new player card".
And then if a new player is actually a new player, and Town, they will do their best but come off as new... as opposed to the same scenario if they are Skum where they still just come off as new.
In these games I find the most viable option is to lynch skummies, then noobies, then the experienced players, and then obviously in last - the townies. Clearly all town would lynch skummy players over towny players, but the point is that when there is no content - lynch the noobs first.

[UglyDuck]

Sunny and UglyDuck are my picks for the scum team after power skimming 3 pages.

lmk

whysies?

[UglyDuck]

My reads on UG and Sunny are more gut than anything. Early in the game I prefer to use my intuition because there’s no real concrete evidence to use yet (IE - flips, voting patterns, interaction tells with known flips, etc). A lot of it is just tone.

Sunny’s posts just struck me that they might come from scum. I disagree that because they answered your questions thoroughly that it warrants being Town read.

UG’s question on pg2 is patently false and the angle seems like one scum would use to go on the offensive early. Furthermore I don’t see how their question there is congruent with their thoughts on pg4.

1) saying your early game is reliant on gut is just a lazy way of not having to put effort into the game (if you are town), or skummy (if you are skum). It could totally be true, I can't read minds, but if your gut is your D1 device just do something more useful and sheep someone you think is town.

2) What question are you referring to that I asked? The only ones I see are when I asked why a player thought "the site was rigged" and then later on "whysies".

[UglyDuck]

Lefty is clearly scum because he misquoted Loki and that is s a c r i l e g e. (pitchforks away folks, it's a joke.)

-

If you're going to use meta, do your own research and do it well. Ask me how I once helped town lose because I let myself be WIFOM'ed by RC's game history and my own shitty meta analysis. Actually- please don't. It's fucking embarrassing.

-

@Sunny - what slot do you feel strongest on (either way), and why?

You mean besides you?

My read on Chronic is strongest. His posts sounded genuinely new and confused and not quite sure what to do; I'm not getting any sense of scum-preservation like Zito said at all. If Chronic indicates (via statement or play) that he has other experience, then this read will shift drastically, but...yeah. I'd like to hear from him about what he thinks of the game so far, if he hasn't been scared off entirely.

Chardev's vote was crap and his unvote wasn't any better, so I'm keeping my vote there. My 23 was referring to his 9 which I still think was an attempt to make CT's question appear worse than it was.

Thoughts on other people:

UglyDuck - He questioned CT's 'assumption' in his first post, stated again in 80 that he didn't get the IC comment, then in 82 explained in perfect detail that he understands it. So why ask if he understood...? I could compromise vote here unless Ugly has a good explanation. (Talk to me, ducky.)

CT - Is new, but informed us he's read some games so I feel like he should be more aware of differing play styles than he's shown us so far. It feels like he's trying on surface-level votes to see what sticks. 103 is uber-LAMIST. Ultimately I can't decide if he's scum looking for a safe wagon, or insecure town.

Lefty - I'm going to push back HARD on the idea that intuition is all there is to work with in D1. Even this early you can watch how people interact and form evidence-based reads. How much experience do you have playing mafia?

My answer to your question is the obvious one - I initially read the comment as the player thinking that the IC had higher odds simply based on being the IC... then multiple people over many posts pointed out what was meant by it... then I posted post 82.

[UglyDuck]

where's uglyduck tho

lolz focus on yourself.
12 total posts.
first three RVS + nonsense.
5th is an autocorrect
and most recent is just asking where I am.


I arguably have contributed more than you have. and that is saying something, because I have essentially done jack.

[UglyDuck]

Teacher and Demon should post some reads.

[UglyDuck]

My Reads so far:
Chardev-Slight town for being active and helpful throughout the entire game. I believe his questioning of me over the debate over whether IC's should be lynched was merely a case of him not understanding what I was asking as he later took back his comments.
UglyDuck-Slight scum for not posting that often, voting Chardev for weak reasons in my opinion, and only focusing on a question made at the beginning of the game instead of advancing the game state further.
iChronicDemonic-Null because he could either be bad scum or new town, time will tell in this case.
Papa Zito- Null since his refusal to answer my question was annoying and time-wasting, but that could just be part of the way he acts. Zito has made a variety of helpful and useless posts, so I have no strong read on him.
Sunlit Diamond- Diamond gave me the most thorough answers to my questions and most of their posts(though still relatively few) contain important information, so I think Diamond is slightly town at this point.
Teacher- Teacher's rapid posting and good points earn him a slight town lean, but I still think some of his questions are about relatively inconsequential things. However, since town members are naturally inquisitive, it makes more sense for a town member to make a deal about a minor point than for a more defensive scum to do the same.
Lefty-I think of Lefty as slightly scummy at this point due to their theorizing about a scumteam with little reasoning.
Reckoner- Reckoner is slightly scummy to me because most of his posts have been unhelpful and 76 is weird, why did Reckoner not ask for an explanation from lefty instead of expressing relief he was accused. Nobody wants to be thought of as being in a scumteam, so that post was unneeded and forced in my opinion.

So for those that are new to the game - this is what we call a "Charisma List".

[UglyDuck]

yo papa why I skum?

[UglyDuck]

fun poll - who thinks there is skum between chardev and demon?

[UglyDuck]

[quote="In post 100,

Teacher and Demon should post some reads.

Really weird question. As far as I can tell, you yourself hadn’t posted reads. Papa hadn’t posted reads. Reck hadn’t posted reads. And I had posted a similar number of reads (2, Papa and Lando) as Lefty. Why did you select me and Chronic? This felt like scum fishing for the new way to push. In any event, Im not posting a full readslist yet, though I did share some townleans above, because not enough people are +rand.

There is no correlation between me, or anyone else posting reads and my request to have you post reads. I do not need to have reads stated at the time I ask for your reads (just as you do not have to supply a reads list just because I ask for one). I asked you two specifically because I was having trouble figuring out where you were at reading your isos.

[UglyDuck]

@ Lefty - Who is your next best skum read to me? Who is your top town read outside of yourself?

[UglyDuck]

the vote count has me as (4) with only 3 names voting me.

[UglyDuck]

Currently my best lynch candidates are Chardev and Uglyduck. The odd things Chardev has done have recently been pointed out to me and I've noticed times wheres he seemed a bit too quick to jump on a wagon or start an argument with little reasoning involved and then quickly leave if it doesn't pan out. However, UglyDuck's tendency to ask other people for opinions rather than giving their own and fixation on one question at the beginning of the game make them my best scumread. Therefore; I would prefer Duck to get lynched and if that doesn't work out, Chardev. I eliminated Reckoner and Lefty from my lynchpool for now since their suspicious activity might just come from their playstyles and I just have more evidence against Chardev and Duck.

I have answered (I think) every question asked of me, outside of the one that I assumed the player looked up (charisma list).
I have in no way been fixated with the question at the beginning of the game. I literally brought it up once (maybe twice if I am mis remembering).
Contrary to popular belief, skum does not actually ask a lot of questions in early days normally as it generates information to be used down the road.

Also, you just found both leading wagons skum and the only two players voting that are not on the wagons towny. I am not sure what that means, but it stands out.

[UglyDuck]

In 25, you ask why I didn't want anyone to vote for the IC after I had already explained it. - I read your reasoning in an incorrect context, as I have previously mentioned. I also, make it blatantly clear (in hindsight) that my mistake is truthful.

You bring it up again in 80

Only to agree with me totally and support the IC in 82 - Yeah, as mentioned, I obviously realized I was being dumb... so I posted this to correct myself. Pretty sure that was pretty clear.

In 113, you give an explanation for your change of mind, but many people had clarified what I had meant by the IC comment earlier, so I find it odd you did not realize by post 80. - this almost feels like a skummy thing to put in. In this post I say "I don't get it but I did read Chardev's response". Clearly I was still mis interpreting the original post at this point.

In114, you admit that you have done jack, but don't seem to try harder afterwards. - I don't know what to say to this. You are right? The only person that seems to want to talk to me this game is you and I am getting tired of taking up space with these back and forths... as eventually it is just wasting time.

In 115, you ask for reads from two other people rather than yourself - why would I ask for a read on myself?

In 118, you suggest Chardev,Demon,or both are scum, which are reads with no reasoning involved as to how you got them. - Wrong. I gave a reason for Chardev in 80 (as you mentioned). Also wrong because I didn't say I thought they were skum in this post - all I did was ask who thought there was skum in that pool.

In 141, you say it is acceptable for people to not post reads list in response to your question, which makes it seem as if you do not care much about hunting for scum and gathering information. - again... clearly that one part of the post that you are referencing (as I put it in parentheses to make it clear) it was to express the point that I was actually making.

In 151, you do not argue that you are not scum or ask for more information about why you are scumread, but merely ask Lefty who they also scumread. I know this point may not be too strong, but the question still seems weird coming from a town member. - First off... none of your points have been good, so don't worry about this one too much. Second.. again you are incorrect. I asked Lefty who they specifically skum read next behind me. I also asked who their top TR was. i don't need to ask for more information on why I am sr'd - the 3 things it could be everyone has already stated. This line of questioning is far more valuable.

[UglyDuck]

I forgot to bold the responses, but they are all after hyphens

[UglyDuck]

I actually do not know what the correct play here is, this is an odd situation given Mafia day chat + potential other town roles. Not to mention the counter wagon being the potential hammer. But whatever:


I am the Town Jail Keeper.


Chardev still my favorite choice. Teacher could be considered as well.

For those of you actually town, you seriously need to read through my responses from an unbiased POV.

Going to a company Event for the Ms' so I would appreciate it if I could fade the hammer for like 5 hours if there are any responses I need to get to.

[UglyDuck]

VOTE: Sunny. Don't want the hammer in the air, so mostly going back to where I was for a holding pattern.

UD, why the full roleclaim now, rather than just a PR (to leave ambiguity over whether you could be protected)? Any softs to point to?

But I do have to reconsider the board, and also check out the possible setups, since I think that basically assures us of two PRs but am not positive off the top of my head.

I am assuming this is regards to "Town" Jail Keeper? I always "copy paste" my role from my QT. I mean in this instance it doesn't matter, just kind of a habit in case it is a multi ball or semi-closed.

[UglyDuck]

Hmm.

UglyDuck in 141 you say you're having trouble sorting teacher. What changed between then and 222?

I would like to keep specifics to myself for the time being. I will answer in twilight or prior to the end of this day 100%. Mainly has to do with the fact that I think I would do more harm then good right this moment, but it is mostly due to voting pattern.

[UglyDuck]

Thoughts on a "Heal" vote pool for my target tonight?

[UglyDuck]

I think you have to keep scum. But for heal my hardest tr at this point is trust.

I don't get the first part of this?

[UglyDuck]

Thoughts on a "Heal" vote pool for my target tonight?

Assuming your claim is true, you

MUST

try to JK scum. Here is why: Scum know exactly what setup we are in. If it is B2 or C2, they will kill you, not anybody else. Thus, 66% of the time, your "heal" wont matter. Better for you to try to prevent your death by putting the killer in jail.

You don't see any other merit in this idea?

[UglyDuck]

based on last big post teacher has moved out of my lynch pool.

I am evaluating other options than chardev

[UglyDuck]

based on last big post teacher has moved out of my lynch pool.

I am evaluating other options than chardev

I am aware of the question. Mine still stands. If you glossed over it as well, you should also re-think the merit in it.

[UglyDuck]

UNVOTE: Chardev

Just being safe. I am still ok with the lynch just protecting against a quick.

Also, can I get a confirmation on the actual deadline as of this point?

[UglyDuck]

Sorry for absence all, was kind of reading along and did not realize it had been so long.

At this point I would prefer Skygazer to Chardev, but I will not let it go no lynch either way.

I also am gonna take the next few hours to look for other cases. But consider me a hammer on Chardev if no one moves up to DL at this point.

[UglyDuck]

I am sorry I have been camping for the last 3 days and thought I would have some service and just had like 0%.

Assuming skum did not just randomly target the person I JKd, and/or they chose to just not shoot someone, I see no downside in revealing my night target.

I JK'd Skygazer last night.

I suppose it is possible we have a doc who proced me and skum still tried to kill me, that is the only other option I can think of.

Reading up now.

[UglyDuck]

Reck, why are you so ready to believe UD's claim after null reading/fence sitting on him for all of day one?

UD, why'd you JK me?

My goal for the night action was to prevent myself from being killed. You were likely skum from my pov when the day ended. So I chose you.
I did have another choice I was debating on, but in the end it came down to the fact that you were getting a decent amount of suspicion cast on you D1, so you were unlikely to be the NK target if they for some reason chose not to kill me, as well as if there is a doc I do not believe in any world they would of picked you over me. Essentially, you hit the middle of the Venn Diagram for me - meaning if there was no death, you are probably skum.

Again, the one exception being if we have a doc in the game. But I seriously do not think that is worth claiming. Even if I get put to the block and you are out there, don't claim. The good an unknown doc can do from that point is too great. Even if I get lynched that would still put us at a 2-1 starting Day 4 if you miss all other shots.

[UglyDuck]

Someone mentioned the tracker game.
I think this would be a good idea prior to lynching my result (Sky).

vote: yes tracker game

[UglyDuck]

Unless a tracker straight up says "hey I saw UD visit someone else" then I'm not keen on outing a tracker and would rather be lynched

The tracker game (at least the one i am aware of) is built around the purpose of not outting the tracker.

[UglyDuck]

I hope that UglyDuck and HeWhoSwims answer the questions I gave them in 524, that might get people talking again. We need to get as much out of this day 2 as possible. In addition, I would like Eragon to give their opinion of Sky, they are the only player that Eragon has yet to talk about.

Good bump, totally forgot about this.

Q1) UglyDuck, what is opinion of Teacher? You alluded to having some suspicion in 235, but never explained why. Did he do something weird you picked up on?
A1) OK so first off, the opinion has changed slightly since the time you asked the question (sorry for the delay). At the time (when I said, I had {reasons} that I didn't want to discuss right then), those reasons were:
- His read on Chronic. Not so much how they put them in the skum pool range but more posts like #201 where they create a scenario where lynching a newbier player could be a good idea because of the facts that they will unlikely be NKd if they are Town and unhelpful as the game progresses. Personally, I think that if newbs are skum they are easier to find then practiced players, so this pinged off to me.
- They "did not want to lynch me" and then there way one post by someone (I want to say Sky) and they just were like "good point" and put me at L-1.
- #218. Reads parse fine enough, but anyone "lining up" reasons to be able to vote other people based off of Day 1 info is skummy to me.
- #225 is just inaccurate. I have the weakest of the town roles - trying to get a CC out is just asking for roles that can out Skum to make themselves known.
--- I would like to mention that since then, mainly based on interactions with Sky, that they are pretty null to me at this current point. If Sky flips Town, Teacher is probably my favorite choice. If Sky flips Skum, they are my favorite TR.---

Q2) UglyDuck, can you give your take on HeWhoSwims and Papa Zito?
A2) HWS's is town on my block. Especially if Sky flips skum.
Zito is an outfielder for me. I see no reason to lynch there without more info (flips, ect.) so I am kind of writing them off for now.

[UglyDuck]

Also - just because I haven't said it - I have no problem voting for Sky. I am simply not doing it because I do not want to give them the chance to self hammer.

[UglyDuck]

also also - someone else should unvote so they are not at L-2 for the same reasons.

[UglyDuck]

also also - someone else should unvote so they are not at L-2 for the same reasons.

it would be bad to allow scum to double tap town why??????

My point was on the merit that L-1 skum could self hammer to end the day early.

[UglyDuck]

think about it this way


the doc claims.
they claim who they healed N1.

both people are mechanically lock-town

? How am I lock town, and Sky flipped VT, and you still need to know who the Doc healed N1?

[UglyDuck]

Yay I’m townclear.

You absolutely are not. Sky could of been the target... however unlikely that may be.

[UglyDuck]

think about it this way


the doc claims.
they claim who they healed N1.

both people are mechanically lock-town

? How am I lock town, and Sky flipped VT, and you still need to know who the Doc healed N1?

CT claimed doc that healed teacher N1

I was EXTREMELY drunk and obviously did not read all the way through. yeah it checks out mb.

[UglyDuck]

actually wait - if skum is Goon!Goon they could claim doc for cred.

[UglyDuck]

UglyDuck, do you think that you stopped the nk? Sky was someone suspected during the end of day 1, trying to kill her would make little sense for the scumteam. Also, are you willing to vote for Zito?

I pretty clearly elaborated on why exactly that reasoning is why I chose Sky.
IDK about Zito.


OK team here is the thing - doc would never out themselves in this situation considering I am still still alive. That is just nonsense.
Lynch me or CT. I obviously think we should vote CT.
There cannot possibly be a CC at this point because Doc would never claim here as town and Skum would never claim here if it wasn't Goon/Goon and risk said CC. Therefore, CT is part of Goon/Goon so-

VOTE: Completely Trustworthy

If there is a CC, today they are skum.

[UglyDuck]

Hey. I have re thought the situation.
I am very sorry about being inactive.

I do not believe in hindsight that CT would of been setting this up from D1/N1 even with my claim. Seems far fetched. also my reasoning behind there being no point in him claiming at this point is wrong because if he is Town then he ISO's the field down to less options.

I need to think about what it means for Teacher.

However, I no longer want to be on IC.

[UglyDuck]

Hey. I have re thought the situation.
I am very sorry about being inactive.

I do not believe in hindsight that CT would of been setting this up from D1/N1 even with my claim. Seems far fetched. also my reasoning behind there being no point in him claiming at this point is wrong because if he is Town then he ISO's the field down to less options.

I need to think about what it means for Teacher.

However, I no longer want to be on IC.

UNVOTE: IC

[UglyDuck]

Okie dokie here is my attempted at making a good decision.
I would like to start with the state of game we are in right now, mainly to elaborate on my last post.

No Lynch Option) With 6 alive, taking 4 to lynch, with 2 skum remaining... TODAY, from a voting pov, skum is at a disadvantage in comparison to tomorrow if we are 5 alive, taking 3 to lynch. Obviously because the game does not end, but then they only need on Town player to choose incorrectly in order to end the game. This would be the route taken if we went to No Lynch. We would most likely wake up to the 2 remaining skum, myself, and Not!CT (most likely at least - as they would block me to ensure kill goes off and then kill CT to get rid of Doc and keep pool just as large tomorrow).

Lynch CT vs. CT is Doc) The alternative to this is to lynch someone today. If we choose to do so, we pretty much have to choose between two options - either we lynch CT, or we lynch within Zito/Eragon/HWS. The choosing CT part is self explanatory if we found it the option, but the way I arrive at the second option pool is from what I said in my previous post - I doubt CT, or anyone, has been setting this up from day 1. So, since that leaves the most likely OOE N1 being I JK sky, CT docs Teacher, Skum RBs me to be sure, and skum shoots Teacher, I am removing me, CT and Teacher from the equation in this situation. Something to be remembered here is that both Teacher and CT are still not 100% Town while they live, they just seems to be more likely town then not given this situation. The potential downside of lynching someone today, is of course being wrong. If we mis-lynch today it is up to night actions to allow us even the opportunity to finish the game out perfectly from that point, and gives skum the upside of being able to use all the WIFOM they choose for the selection of their NK.

OK - that is where I am at with the lynch/no-lynch decision. I am trying to come up with a for sure solution, but rn, even given the downsides, I am leaning towards lynching, and lynching within the Zito/Eragon/HWS pool.

Then I want to take that pool and add some VCA assumptions to it.
The pool I have suggested would be Zito/Eragon/HWS.
I am approaching this VCA look based on both CT and Teacher being Town.

This was the VC EOD1:

Votecount 1.FINAL

Ceejayvinoya (5) -

Papa Zito, Skygazer, teacher, HeWhoSwims,Completly Trustworthy

Chardev (1) -

xRECKONERx

Skygazer (2) -

Chardev, Ceejayvinoya

Not Voting (1) -

UglyDuck

A lynch has been achieved

Night 1 ends in (expired on 2018-07-30 13:00:00).

- On the Town Wagon was potential Skum of [Zito, HWS].
- Off the Town Wagon was Town!Duck, Town!CJ, Town!Reck, and Unknown!Chardev/Eragon.
The first question I asked myself here, was whether it was more likely for there to be one skum on, and one skum off, or both skum on. Personally, I believe that since we know that both Skygazer and CJ were Town.. It is EXTREMELY LIKELY that there was one Skum on the Wagon and the other Skum is Charved/Eragon (I say this because it would create a TownVTown wagon situation, in which there is no reason for the other to switch because either way Town is getting lynched and they can fade the suspicion).



Here is the EOD2 VC:

Votecount 2.final

Skygazer (5) -

xRECKONERx, teacher, Completly Trustworthy, Papa Zito, Skygazer

Not Voting (3) -

UglyDuck, Chardev, HeWhoSwims

A lynch has been achieved

Night 2 ends in (expired on 2018-08-07 21:30:00).

So first off, this day is obv a little weird from VCA because Sky was like probably gonna be the lynch no matter what. It is really.. like super really annoying that they self hammered here... like potential lose the game annoying if we find the first skum and go lylo searching for number 2. Do not. Ever. Self Hammer. As Town. It is literally. NEVER. Correct. (in normal set ups). Anywhooooo, here is what we get from this:
- On the Town Wagon we have one sucidal maniac (town), 3 other Town, and Zito.
- Off the Town Wagon we have one Town (me), and then Chardev/Eragon and HWS.
Again, same question comes up... except this time it is black and white under the assumption of CT/Teacher being Town. There has to be one on and one off. So it is Zito and either Eragon or HWS.


OK take all that in and look at it and what you are gonna take if you can look at it unbiasly from the way I did... is that it is most likely Zito and HWS/Eragon.
HOWEVERRRR - please also keep in mind that if the skum team was actually planning this set up from day one that they would absolutely stay on the same wagon ever single day to make sure if the fake claim was found out that the other is not looked at as closely... and obv CT and Teacher have been on both times. Not really still thinking that one is likely, just pointing it out.


TLDR;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;
I think CT and Teacher are Town today.
Limits the pool to Zito/Eragon/HWS.

NEW FACT!!!!!
My target last night was HWS. Which means absolutely nothing under my assumption of thought as they would of RBd me N1 and N2. The only thing it adds is more confidence that either Skum targeted Teacher N1 and therefore CT and Teacher are Town, or the absolute opposite and both CT and Teacher are skum.

All of this added together is why I am pissed off at Skygazer. If they did not self hammer, as I had litterally no intention of hammering, it would of forced either one of Chardev/Eragon or HWS to hammer. We could of then either isolated that person or isolated Zito/off person. Now we have to play the game of whether there was 2 people OFF the Self Hammer Wagon, or 1 person OFF the Self Hammer Wagon.

Whatever - I am like 99% sure Zito is probably skum. Or at least I think it is more likely Zito and [HWS/Eragon] than anything else. Also, I want to take this time to point out that assuming allllllllllllllllllllllllll of this speculation is somehow actually correct, if Zito is skum we have a 50% chance of killing the RB. We also have a 50% chance of killing a Goon. If he is Skum and a Goon, then that is cool we didn't mislynch.... but to further on my above point about the value in No Lynch vs Lynch today.... If we lynch today, and we happen to Lynch the Skum!RB it puts us in a situation where most likely CT and Teacher are town. So then I have to choose between Eragon and HWS. If CT docs me, then I have a 50% chance to send us to tomorrow at 4-1.

This is a Risk vs Reward situation. The Risk and the Reward of being right about CT/Teacher being Town both makes sense when looked at from the Risk perspective and the Reward perspective. If we continue, the amount of information to look into is almost limitless. Whereas if we lynch within CT/Teacher, The Risk is... I guess technically the same, but I feel like given information not... and the Reward is wayyyyyy less because if we lynch there we obv lynch CT, and then there is no GTD at that point that they did try to shoot teacher instead of have been setting it up from day one.


I have time off work and ISO's to read, so those are coming next. I don't want to vote RN, but at this point consider my vote on Zito.

[UglyDuck]

@Papa - what's your NKA for both nights if you believe there is not a doctor? Is it really just to lay the groundwork for a fake claim? Keep in mind, in your world, Ugly Duck can jailkeep uninhibited.

@duck - when he answers, compare the likelihood of his answers to mine:

• N1 scum RB'ed duck in expectation of him being docsaved, and attacked me as widely townread.
  
• N2 scum RB'ed duck (same logic), and attacked Reck suspecting him of being doctor (and in any event unlikely to be saved).

answering as I go... but yeah, read the novel I posted. I was being dumb I agree with you as of now.

[UglyDuck]

@Ducky - why havent you said who you Jailkept yet?

also answered in novel now - I targeted HWS. Means nothing... at least for now.

[UglyDuck]

UD are you fakeclaiming? because tbh i think you slipped non-JK in a post after your claim. i may have over-read it, but i want to hear what you say first.

I am just fine if you say you were gambitting, i have done it on multiple occasions(We shall not talk about the 13p one cop where i gambitted cop and lynched the cop D1. we SHALL NOT)

OK so I had to ask a friend to read this post (after it had been brought up 100 times because I simply was not gettting the context). There was no slip. I am JK. I did not understand that "kept or keeped" was an association with JK. In hindsight I feel dumb, but don't waste your time on it. Also - there is no way that I am fake claiming at this point and not owning it as CT has claimed Doctor. As another town has not come out and be like "uhhh wait a sec..." me being a FC at this point is just a fallacy. Followed closely by CT... who I am paranoid about but giving a pass to until either we wake up to game over or still playing.

[UglyDuck]

What about me flipping town makes teacher a weaker townread or vice versa?

Ducky, I know your suspicious of me. But you never answered this question. How was lynching Skygazer not the right play, purely mathematically?

no longer suspicious of you. When I said it it was based on paranoia interactions between the two of you. At this point, if you are skum, you win. I don't think I can lynch you if we don't lynch CT today... which I don't want to do.

[UglyDuck]

@uglyduck can you jailkeep me tonight to prove?

I think lynching zito is always the play today, the Problem I see is that I have a bad feeling zito will flip goon

Why would the roleblocker perform the kill? So from my POV the team is (zito. HWS) and if you jailed HWS that means zito performed the kill, which means he is unlikely RB’er.

Also think about this way

HWS could’ve performed the kill if you were rb’d right?
So I’m not sure fully what it means, but I think lynching HWS will give us scum
But I’m more confident in zito

kay nvm you are a better spot.

VOTE: Eragon

[UglyDuck]

I was right about Chardev D1 and I am right now. Messed up Day 2. Get on it people.

[UglyDuck]

Teacher - just clarifying - is your case intended to be posted today or are you waiting for tomorrow?

[UglyDuck]

Fine

VOTE: zito

Too close to DL to try for else where i think. If CT is skum then gg man

[UglyDuck]

CT - don’t get fancy tonight with the actions. We want to create a solvable situation tomorrow.

[UglyDuck]

If we do not lose here and i die i want it to be noted that i think it is eragon.
Also teacher if you have anything else to divulge you should do it now.

[UglyDuck]

To avoid absolutely any uncertainty that i was of course RBd - I JKd CT.
Out with the mrs. will get to this tonight.