SUPP 2017 MAFIA: COMPLETE

[Shoshin]

Krazy, you haven't claimed exactly what your mechanics are.

[Shoshin]

So you're not even a flavor cop. Cool. Worthless role. What're the results?

[Shoshin]

Why would this mean Pun is town?

[Shoshin]

Why'd you choose the people you did? Why didn't you check me?

[Shoshin]

Why didn't you claim earlier? What was the point of lying to us or pretending you were a flavor cop?

[Shoshin]

Explain your read progression on MWNN. I want to know exactly why he's town here, and how that read progressed from "within scumrange" to "beyond scumrange" and exactly when that happened and why.

[Shoshin]

I'd like to know that the read isn't fake. You said "it's not a huge stretch if the imagination to say that this game's within his scumrange," but then later said "I'd be really surprised if MWNN is scum here." I'd like to know how you reconcile those two statements, if something changed between them, and what the specific towntell is that you didn't want to elaborate on earlier.

[Shoshin]

ugh this is so tilting

I wanna talk to DV. after I do, @Krazy I'm giving you 24 hours to fullclaim

Haven’t been able to catch up on the last few pages yet but will try and be here properly later this afternoon.

Please claim your role. Everyone has claimed but you.

[Shoshin]

Alright, cool. Let's get DV's claim.

[Shoshin]

Krazy's role is actually very useful from a scum perspective.

[Shoshin]

I wouldn't say overpowered, no.

[Shoshin]

Nah, loved is compatible with scum. I don't know why you'd say that.

[Shoshin]

Why didn't you claim that earlier?

[Shoshin]

DeasVail could not have done the scum nightkill because I roleblocked him last night.

the worst, why didn't you claim after this?

[Shoshin]

Did anyone get a cat last night?

Or after this?

[Shoshin]

Well this looks like a mess.

Vote Vaxkiller

Why do people think Shepherd is better than this?

Why'd you vote Vax here?

[Shoshin]

Okay, sure. They clearly didn't have much relation to reality. But then why'd you believe that? Like, explain how you arrived at those conclusions.

[Shoshin]

That's a really weird thing to be worried about...

[Shoshin]

It means the scum is probably the worst & guac

[Shoshin]

So the error doesn't have to do with the worst or DV, okay.

[Shoshin]

Who can Pun kill of living players?

[Shoshin]

Let's have Pun shoot Guac, then?

[Shoshin]

What's the theory?

[Shoshin]

Why Espe? And why not DV?

[Shoshin]

You're gonna need to come up with a valid reason for scum to claim not to have done the action that two people claim to have received.
Without doing that, calling me scum is gonna come up short with the better thinkers in the thread.

Why would scum lie about connecting two players? I could come up with lots of reasons for scum to do that. It's WIFOM. To argue that they're town because they wouldn't randomly lie for no reason. To instill paranoia that one of the townies is scum. To create chaos. To complicate our decision.

[Shoshin]

Krazy's case on Espe is really bad. There's actually a legitimate reason to suspect Espe, but Krazy didn't touch on it. He also ignored all the evidence that Espe's town.

[Shoshin]

The town case on DV is also hilariously bad.

[Shoshin]

the worst, what'd the cat do?

[Shoshin]

Scum guaranteed that Espe would lose the bet by giving Vax 0s... so Espe is probably town... and trying to make us paranoid because he "could" be scum is really anti-town at the moment. Like, really bad.

[Shoshin]

What's bad faith? Just say what the cat did.

[Shoshin]

Oh, you mean because you didn't receive it. Nevermind then.

[Shoshin]

I forgot about that.

[Shoshin]

There's actually one very strong reason to suspect Espe, but Krazy either sucks at scumhunting or he's scum who isn't actually scumhunting.

[Shoshin]

Dam, really? I didn't say Krazy was scum.

[Shoshin]

Are we in 5p tomorrow if both Krazy/guac are town? If so, I'd feel a lot more comfortable about that plan.

You said you saw some Chara games with strong scum play, can you link?

[Shoshin]

Nah, it's 2 scum left.

[Shoshin]

It's weird that you went from townreading me to pushing my lynch to now defending me, can you speak to that progression? Like, I don't get it. At all.

[Shoshin]

I also still don't get your play around your claim. Like, why delay? Do you do this as town? Can you point to a game where you've done something similar as town?

[Shoshin]

I have no intention of creating needless paranoia or helping you push what I believe is a mislynch.

[Shoshin]

No, not really.

[Shoshin]

My sense is that you tend to go with the flow midgame, which isn't really what you did in this game.

[Shoshin]

I'm unsure about the worst. I'm confident the scum is in you, the worst, and DV. I'm working out where in that group.

I think Taly's reads are irrelevant to solving this game, since Taly had a tiny fraction of the information we have and I don't have any reason to believe Taly had a better read on the game than me.

[Shoshin]

Pun's shooting Guac, so I don't really feel like lynching there today.

[Shoshin]

I don't like how much weight you're giving to what dead townies thought as opposed to figuring the game out for yourself. Townies tend to scumhunt for themselves, not sheep the dead without any critical thought of their own.

[Shoshin]

Krazy, did you reread the whole game or did you just iso Taly for his reads?

[Shoshin]

Would you say you're always bad midgame?

[Shoshin]

Meh, fuck it. Let's lynch DV?

[Shoshin]

Irrelevant to DV's alignment.

[Shoshin]

VOTE: DeasVail

[Shoshin]

No, I'm not reading your mind.

[Shoshin]

Pun, why won't you shoot Guac?

[Shoshin]

We need to lynch Pun.

[Shoshin]

Could Espe be scum? Yes. Is Espe scum? Unlikely.

To believe he's scum, you'd have to believe that he intentionally lost the bet (unlikely because scum wouldn't have so easily given up the opportunity to vig Dunn), that he ranked his partner Fire a 0 (unlikely because scum wouldn't have put themselves in position to potentially be killed via rankings), that Fire intentionally faked a guilty on his partner for no reason on D2 (unlikely because even if we had lynched Espe, scum Fire would have had to survive multiple day phases as well as a likely SK in game where scum should have assumed another cop role that would eventually flip town).

[Shoshin]

Contrary to what Krazy is saying, none of the things I'm pointing about Espe are "WIFOM bullshit" - it objectively hurts scum if they can't vig a townie, it objectively hurts scum if they fake a guilty to bus with no clear benefit, and it objectively hurts scum if they die in the ranking phase.

Espe is town unless he's a very anti-scum scum, and it's just very unlikely that scum would play this anti-scum.

[Shoshin]

If Pun isn't going to shoot guac, we should lynch Pun. I don't see the point of keeping Pun around if she's not going to cooperate with us on guac.

[Shoshin]

Pun isn't playing towny at all, so I don't see any reason to believe she's town other than your speculation that your role somehow confirms her (it doens't, your role is what it is and has no necessary connection to anyone else's - if anything, it just helps us figure out if scum lied and if they did we can catch them and if they didn't we can trust the rankings, which is valuable in and of itself).

[Shoshin]

I started reading through DV's games. His play here feels really underwhelming compared with his play as town. His play as scum is really strong, but it's also underwhelming in the same way his play here feels.

[Shoshin]

viewtopic.php?f=54&t=76227

Like, read D1 of that game. The level of thought and engagement from DV just feels different from here.

[Shoshin]

I don't think lurking is AI for him, no. But the depth of thought, and the waffling on Shepard, that stuff is. Like, think about how I went about reading BV - depth of thought was the key thing where I saw a big difference - and that's what I'm seeing as well on DV - just a very differnet depth to his thinking in that other game. There just feels like lot more questioning of every detail of evidence as compared with here.

[Shoshin]

What do you mean?

[Shoshin]

Like, he starts this game off with an early townread on Fire for terrible reasons (a read that I questioned early, mind you, because it was actually a really bad read, I just didn't realize DV was really good as town so I didn't hold him to much of a standard).

[Shoshin]

In Partition, he's immediately onto Kokichi. Just good instincts compared with here.

[Shoshin]

And then look at the team mafia game where DV is scum. I'm curious what you'd think of that.

[Shoshin]

The one thing that throws me off about DV is that guac gave him a 0, so it's unlikely they're partnered.

[Shoshin]

I mean, I dunno. Maybe it's not DV. I guess I'm just paranoid because his town play looks a lot better than this.

[Shoshin]

I'd also really hate to mislynch DV because he's been one of the few players townreading/defending me for most of the game, so I dunno.

[Shoshin]

The ideal outcome would be lynching Krazy, vigging guac, and if both are town, lynching DV tomorrow. But it's probably never going to happen, because Pun's going to lynch me before she ever lynches DV, and she's not going to vig guac if we lynch Krazy.

So I think this is our only option today:

VOTE: guacamole

[Shoshin]

I strongly believe the reason Pun won't vig guac is because Pun isn't town. There's no other reason to refuse that request.

[Shoshin]

Pun, why are you so certain these are mislynches?

[Shoshin]

Why is Guac town to you?

[Shoshin]

Like, Pun, what do you think is gonna happen if you don't vig Guac? We're going to lynch him.

[Shoshin]

Because Chara wasn't pun, Krazy isn't pun, and DeasVail is so incredibly unlikely to be pun that it's not something I'll ever consider.

As far as guacamole goes, I confess I am not as certain he is town as I am the others.

I maintain, however, that if he IS pun, that his punbuddy has a method to foil a vig there, leaving a vig attempt on him detrimental. If he's pun, it'll fail; if he's not pun, then pun will let the shot go through on town. Either way, we come out behind.

This is also why he's an acceptable, albeit far from ideal, lynch. I feel he is far more likely to be town than not, but acknowledge there's a realistic chance he could be pun.

Why can't Chara be scum? Why can't Krazy be scum? Why can't DV be scum? Why can't the worst be scum? Why can't Guac be scum? Like, what's your reasoning? What specific things have they done to make you think they're town? What posts make you think they're town? What're the town-tells?

As for Guac, that's about the most absurd reasoning I've ever heard for not vigging him. Why would you assume that scum have a way to foil the vig? And even assuming the vig will fail, so what? Worst-case scenario, your vig fails. Best-case scenario, it doesn't. Why is that a reason not to vig him in the first place?

The biggest problem I have is that you're not thinking about the big picture. Even if you thought Guac was strong town (and you clearly don't), you'd at least recognize that nobody else agrees with you and that's he's getting lynched if you don't agree to vig him. So, like, you shouldn't want town wasting a lynch on someone you could vig, especially when lynches are a lot more valuable than your vig. Like, ugh. You're just so bad at this game if you're town, it's actually starting to get on my nerves, especially because of how absurdly confident you are in yourself.

[Shoshin]

I have given a lot of thought to the game this day phase and I keep going in circles. I think my approach here would be to lynch Krazy, but I really want to get Punreader onside with vigging guac first

I don't get the sense that you've actually given this much thought... why is your approach to lynch Krazy? do you think guac is scum? what do you think of the worst? And can you give your reasoning on all these reads? Where are you on Espe?

[Shoshin]

Pun, you ranked Screen a 1, so I'd like to know how that read changed from scum to town. Was it MWNN's play? Or Guac's play? And what about their play? MWNN mislynched Penguin instead of lynching Shepard, so I'm not sure how you classify that as town. Guac pushed for my lynch over Shepard's, so again not sure how you classify that as town. Like, what the fuck? Your way of thinking about this game makes no sense at all.

[Shoshin]

Why is the worst scum, Vax?

[Shoshin]

Krazy, do you think guac is scum or not?

[Shoshin]

pun is def the SK, but im ok with him living at the moment, hes been acting more towny lately.

How is Pun acting towny? He's refusing to shoot guac, while pushing a mislynch on me. Like, you'd think he would have reevaluated his reads after that terrible read on Shepard, but instead he's doubling down on his bad reads. More towny? WTF?

[Shoshin]

These would require full cases, reliant at least part on meta. Both Chara and DeasVail are players I have played extensively with. Not so much for Krazy, but my townread there is based around what he has done and continues to do; it is self-evident that his analysis is town-driven.

This is the same vague bullshit you said about Shepard, and you were wrong. So I want specifics

[Shoshin]

Fire Assassin does not write this post if Espeonage is town. The only explanation for this cop guilty is ESPEONAGE BEING GUILTY. Fire Assassin wanted to be a CONFIRMED COP, because that was his strongest ENDGAME.

I've seen scum claim cop on D2 with a guilty on town in many games...

[Shoshin]

@Krazy

Yes, those were role madness games. I saw a scum fake a cop guilty on town on D2, mislynch the town, then survive until endgame. The whole point of a role madness game is that it allows scum to pull shit like that because of potential misdirection roles, framer, etc.

Espe's role isn't fake... Dunn had the same role...

Espe's behavior is fine. He pushed a lynch on Fire. His reads are okay, nothing crazy. He didn't scumread Shep but to the extent he pushed a counterwagon it was always on Fire, another scum.

Espe's strong defense of Dunn was towny as fuck. I was paranoid as hell about Dunn, and Espe came out strongly defending him. Like, there's more town in Espe's posts than there is in Guac's or the worst's, especially given the way they interacted with Shepard.

[Shoshin]

Let's talk about your metrics.

Activity - not AI but if it is, it applies equally to guac's slot, DV's slot, and the worst's slot.

Argumens - what's this?

Reads - better than guac's or the worst's

Role - proven via Dunn and Dunn's flip

Associations - better than guac's or the worst's

Why the fuck are you scumreading Espe as opposed to guac or the worst? Like, I'm just at a loss here as to what is going through your mind here. And it's making me scumread you.

[Shoshin]

Is your meta assessment of fire that he is a weak player that would accept a 1 for 1 on day 2?

I think strong players often accept a 1 for 1 if they can get some benefit from it, so I don't think that's an indication of weakness, I also think that Fire claimed the guilty in a way that would have allowed him all sorts of outs from actually getting lynched in the event that Espe flipped town. Like, not only by saying he fucked up his calculation of rankings but also by claiming misdirection roles, etc. The reality is that scum often put themselves in the position to do a 1 for 1 trade knowing that town might mislynch yet not ever lynch the scum afterwards, because towns don't know who the scum are so they often fuck this up, more often than you seem to think (I've seen it many times).

[Shoshin]

the worst, do you agree that Vax is town?

[Shoshin]

I should be town as fuck to the worst, to be honest. He's actually seen my play as town more than anyone else in this game, as well as my play as scum, and should know by now this is town.

[Shoshin]

Mafia is among guac, the worst, Krazy, and DV. Two of those are mafia. From the worst's perspective, this game should be easy. What's there to discuss?

[Shoshin]

I didn't want to interfere with a natural scumhunting process so I played this game as if I was vanilla.

[Shoshin]

We should lynch the person most likely to be scum and that's guac.

[Shoshin]

Guac's given up, too. Like, he knows he's going to die at this point so he's not even bothering trying to fake any semblance of interest in the game.

[Shoshin]

You won't like this comparison but Pun's another player like Nancy - cluelessly manipulated, demonstrably incorrect, yet still unquestioningly confident in themselves to the detriment of town.

[Shoshin]

So scum is
Deasvail
The worst
Dan/Shoshin

Sounds good.

Ok. New scum team.
Espe
Pp
Maria.

Low points
DV
The Worst
Nico
Action

Everyone else is a little higher.

Also, just going to go with Screen's reads and vote his lowest ranked person, for the moment.

VOTE: PenguinPower

I have no issues sharing his rankings if someone asks.

10. Srceenplay
10. Taly
10. TheBrawlGuy
9. Chara
8. Shoshin
7. The Worst
6. vaxkiller
6. Dunnstral
5. Fire Assassin
5. Nahdia
4. pine
4. pun reader
3. lovebird
2. nico
1. mariar
0. deasvail
0. espe
0. PP

10. Srceenplay
10. Taly
10. TheBrawlGuy
9. Chara
8. Shoshin
7. The Worst
6. vaxkiller
6. Dunnstral
5. Fire Assassin
5. Nahdia
4. pine
4. pun reader
3. lovebird
2. nico
1. mariar
0. deasvail
0. espe
0. PP

punreader probably would have been moved down a little, Fire Assassin, based on today, also would move down. Maybe Dunn, too, MariaR I'd probably put around where Nahdia is and it would mostly be because that's about as town as I'd ever put MariaR.

Espeonage would move up just based on Fire Assassin's claims.

I would rank deasvail a little higher, but only because I don't remember reading anything by them, probably the 1 point slot.

Also, I am wondering whether I should say who spoke to each other last night, what do you think, ducky?

I think that if Fire Assassin faked a guilty on someone, it is a pretty good excuse to pick someone who might be ranked in the same area as him and then talk about his role later and how "Oh, I guess he was ranked higher than me"

I don't think a scum does that to scum, so Fire Assassin scum read means Espeonage is town.

I don't like the claim of a straight guilty when Fire Assassin should have known from the beginning that his role could come with a fake guilty.

I'm always confused by this, how is PP an "easy lynch" if it's taken over a week to get him to L-2?

Like, what is a hard lynch in people's books, then?

Fair take. I'm at a loss for whether that comes from town PP or scum PP though.

this is actually looking more coherent than expected. I'm more concerned about certain players than others in that pool right now but I think rn more content will help me a lot.

Where your scumreads at right now if you aren't reading PP as scum?

Welcome Commander Shepard.

VOTE: Fire Assassin

You kn ow what?

VOTE: Shoshin

@Krazy

This is why you vote Guac:

1. Screen lurked most of D1, ranked Nahdia/Fire a 5, and then replaced out of the slot, all of which is more likely to come from scum Screen than town Screen.

2. Chara, who you should know was town, suspected MWNN more than anyone else before replacing. Look at her reasoning. It's good.

3. MWNN came into the game refusing to vote for Shepard, even after both me and Maria lobbied him for votes there. For some unknown reason, he was opposed to voting Shepard, instead choosing to vote me on D2, before eventually circling back to a lynch on Penguin before allowing the Shepard wagon to gain steam.

4. Guac also refused to vote for Shepard, instead voting for me. He never gave any reason to townread Shepard, insisted that he didn't townread Shepard, yet his actions clearly demonstrate a belief that Shepard is town. That's a scum-tell, a massive one. Scum often defend their partners while insisting that they're not townreading their partner. I can point you to countless examples of scum doing this, yet you'd strain to find townies doing this.

5. He says he didn't connect the worst and Pun even though the two are probably connected (unless Pun & the worst are the last mafia, which is possible but unlikely). While it's possible that scum have the exact same role as Guac, the most likely explanation is that Guac in fact connected them, then when I questioned why he connected them, he couldn't come up with an answer so he decided to say he didn't connect them. This sort of lie is consistent with the way scum play the game.

6. He's making no effort to scumhunt or figure the game out. The moment he sees some support for a wagon on Espe, he joins it.

[Shoshin]

Also, I want to say every time I have seen someone claim their role is a "red herring" in a large theme it has flipped scum. This vanillaize shit really bothers me.

I'm sure there's people who would say the opposite: "every time I've seen someone claim their role is a 'red herring' in a large theme, it flipped town." I can certainly point to many examples of "red herring" town roles, and by that, what I mean is roles designed to give scum mislynches.

Espe's role is proven via Dunn... the vanillaize shit is proven via Dunn... and the fact is that two scum gave Vax a 0, guaranteeing that Espe wouldn't be able to shoot Dunn.... not to mention that Espe gave Fire a 0, which is risky for scum... plus the way that Espe played around Dunn was extremely townish, insisting that Dunn was town despite nobody else being able to see it... plus the fact that Fire nearly got him lynched in a situation where there was no need for scum to bus their own like that...

Your entire case on Espe reduces to a possibility. But mafia isn't a game about what's possible, and if you make your decisions on that basis, you're going to mislynch more often than not. You win by evaluating what's probable, and there's just too much evidence showing that Espe is town, especially when compared to other players like Guac.

[Shoshin]

VOTE: DeasVail
I..... kinda think this is the mechanically correct lynch today.
we're probably in 6v2 right now. if this is a mislynch then tomorrow were either:
4v2 (pun doesn't kill)
3v2 (pun shoots town)
4v1 (pun shoots scum)

if we're in the middle bracket, and if DV is scum, it's an autolose.

in a vacuum I think he has less scum equity than guac and Krazy but he's still firmly in the scumpool. if I'm going to reconsider that one+ of my townreads are scum, I'm not going to do it in 8p when it feels like there's far more likely red flips on the table.

@Pun, I trust absolutely that you're on our side. I just think your reads on Shoshin and Espe are wrong. if we're wrong on 2 of {DV, guac} I absolutely promise I'll hash this out with you tomorrow. but we need to make sure there's actually a tomorrow. trust me back?

Fuck this. This is straight-up fearmongering and it's not how we should be deciding today's lynch, especially if you think guac and Krazy are scummier. The best way to win this game is to lynch scum, not to lynch people out of fear.

Worst-case scenario, DV is town and Krazy scum and Krazy wins tomorrow because of his voting mechanics.

Best-case scenario, DV is scum, in which case his partner is obviously guac, so you lynch guac after him. But then why not lynch guac today?

In virtually any scenario, the most likely scum is guac, so that's who we should be lynching. He's by far the scummiest player in this game, and he's the only player that plausibly makes sense as scum with any of the potential scum.

[Shoshin]

Like when was the last time you saw a bunch of d1 claims and were like yep 100% believe all that shit, better adjust my votes

I believe D1 claims most of the time. Like, if you look at this game alone, most of the D1 claims were legit. If you look at other games, D1 claims are usually legit. And if you analyze in a vacuum, D1 claims don't mean anything about a player's alignment but 75% of the time a player is town so it's probably town, and if you add in behavioral evidence, that likelihood goes up.

The fact that you don't ibelieve D1 claims s a reflection on your skill as a scumhunter, not a reflection on others.

[Shoshin]

Like did you adjust your votes based on puns claim?

My rankings were based entirely on behaviors, but others based their rankings on mechanics (e.g. Dunn). I'm not going to get into a discussion about which approach is more legitimate, but I know for a fact that it's not AI - it's just a reflection of that player's scumhunting framework.

[Shoshin]

The double 0 on vax is what bothers me even more. If im in a large theme, I do not believe the d1 claims. Pun was lying. That they believe it and act accordingly makes it seem like they know it is real, which is only possible if esp is scum. The 0s point to esp scum not to esp town.

This is absurd. You're conf biasing or you're scum. If you're scum in a large theme, why wouldn't you believe townie claims?

If scum have the chance to vig Dunn via Espe, they don't needlessly tank that opportunity by giving Vax two 0s. The reason they gave Vax two 0s is because Vax hinted at having a provable role plus he had been lurking in a way that made him likely to receive low scores from some townies, so scum were probably hoping to get rid of him before he could prove his role.

[Shoshin]

Krazy, you're read on this game is wrong. For starters, I didn't "totally" believe the bet. If you look back, I was skeptical until Dunn flipped. Second, I'm talking about what's probable. There's massive risk for scum to guarantee that Dunn wins the bet, because Dunn could have shot Espe. There's also no risk for scum if Espe wins the bet, because Espe gets to choose how to use the role. Thus, whether you look at it from a perspective of "opportunism" or a perspective of "risk mitigation," the likely conclusion is that Espe isn't scum. Third, the way scum interpret claims on D1 is mostly irrelevant to the issue we're discussing, but even so, you're wrong about the idea that scum disbelieve town claims on D1, especially when those claims are made truthfully in the way Dunn/Espe claimed or in the way Penguin claimed. It's not hard for scum to see that those claims weren't lies.

[Shoshin]

Why are you defending Guac? If you're going to insist that Espe is scum over Guac, explain why Guac is town.

[Shoshin]

I thought Dunn was more towny than Espe. I thought Espe was underwhelming as a player, whereas Dunn dropped a few towntells.

[Shoshin]

What's your read on Guac?

[Shoshin]

Why wouldn't scum believe claims from townies? Like, wtf? I understand if scum don't believe a townie who claims bulletproof, but even then, scum probably won't shoot them because "risk mitigation," your words. But when it comes to odd claims like Dunn's or Penguins, what reason do town have to lie about that, and why wouldn't scum believe them?

[Shoshin]

I think shoshin even explained why he is scum early in the dayphase before he started hard buddying her.

Buddying the worst? What the fuck are you talking about? the worst is in my poe list... and lobbying for a vote on Guac is not the same as buddying...

[Shoshin]

My god, this is like a repeat of Labyrinth where the scum are obvious and nobody wants to touch it. Why can't we lynch Guac?

[Shoshin]

Vax, you should vote Guac because no matter who the scum is between DV, Krazy, and the worst, the partner is Guac in almost all cases, and especially if the worst is scum.

[Shoshin]

Vax, why'd you shoot Shepard?

[Shoshin]

My god, this is like a repeat of Labyrinth where the scum are obvious and nobody wants to touch it. Why can't we lynch Guac?

I haven’t read the last few pages yet but if it is not pun’s intention to shoot guac I would most likely lynch guac.

Pun's not shooting Guac, plus she's right that scum might have protection. So we need to lynch. Who do you think Guac's partner is?

[Shoshin]

VOTE: Krazy

Meh, fuck it. Let's go with this, then.

[Shoshin]

UNVOTE: Krazy

I'd like to know why Vax shot Shepard.

[Shoshin]

Being at L-3 is irrelevant because it wasn't LYLO...

[Shoshin]

Vax, why'd you shoot Shepard?

[Shoshin]

Who did you sheep and why?

[Shoshin]

Why would you shoot someone if you didn't feel like you were doing well?

[Shoshin]

To be clear, those are your metrics, not mine. I consider a lot more than just "opportunism" and "risk" when deciding who's scum.

D4 wasn't LYLO, so a "guaranteed mislynch" doesn't matter if it exposes all the scum. Scum don't always mislynch town when given the opportunity because they're thinking about survival more than mislynching, and that means evaluating how town will respond to the flip (a flip that scum already know).

[Shoshin]

OK, you want a trip into "Krazy has just entered his first large theme in half a decade" fantasy land?

Point of evidence: Town has lynched nothing but town for the entire game and I just replaced-in to a townslot that for all I knew gave up hope on figuring out this game. This led me to suspect most of the town had no idea what was going on in this game.
Possible conclusion: The leading wagon is probably scum-led at this point

Point of evidence: There is a wagon on CS.
Question: Why is there a wagon on CS?

Point of evidence: There is a missing SK nightkill.
Possible conclusion: Scum have found the SK?

Point of Evidence 2 : There is a missing shot on CS
Possibility 2: The scum think the SK is NI so they have to kill it through lynch for gamewin

1-Hour of Large Theme Conclusion: CS is the SK, has NI, was roleblocked, and therefore this wagon is a mafia-led wagon lynching the SK so they can use their roleblocks elsewhere

Premise 2: Town needs SK alive, since this might be lylo, or very close to lylo. At this point, SK aims for scum. At the very least, SK continues to be roleblocked and votes with town.

Wild guess: The GF is the person who doesn't have many/any votes on him

If town was so shitty, wouldn't scum just let the town implode on itself? Like, why would you assume the leading wagon was led by scum on an SK? Scum usually sit back to let the town mislynch itself so I don't see why you'd make that assumption.

Why'd you assume there's an SK?

Why'd you assume that scum think there's an SK?

Why'd you assume that scum think the SK is NI?

Why'd you assume that Vax is GF instead of town?

None of this makes any sense.

[Shoshin]

If scum bussed, why didn't the worst or guac bus?

[Shoshin]

How are the worst & guac aligned if the worst ranked guac a 0?

[Shoshin]

And lolz at me being scum. I would just quickhammer if I was. Wagon on me and another at L-1.

Krazy's defense sounds a lot like this. "Oh, I didn't hammer Sho, so I'm tonw." It's bullshit. Like, I don't know how to make this sort of thing clearer. Choosing to lynch Shepard over me on D4 doesn't clear Krazy, and claiming that you're clear because you didn't hammer is more scummy than towny.

[Shoshin]

VOTE: Krazy

[Shoshin]

To be clear, scum didn't force a bus.

Shepard's lynch was inevitable.

[Shoshin]

VOTE: DeasVail

[Shoshin]

I'm settling on this for today. Done looking at this until tomorrow.

[Shoshin]

If DV is town, I'd lynch Krazy tomorrow.

[Shoshin]

If scum, lynch Guac.

[Shoshin]

Who is Guac's partner?

[Shoshin]

It feels like you're putting no effort to find the scum, DV. Why shouldn't we lynch you?

[Shoshin]

Nahdia gave Screen a 0, so I find it hard to believe that Guac's partner is either of the worst, Krazy, or Espe. Krazy and the worst gave Screen a 0. Espe gave him a 2. So, like, most likely partner for Guac is DV. And if DV's town, Guac's probably town and the scum are Krazy and the worst. And if that's not right, then scum pulled some crazy gambit and we're overlooking something.

[Shoshin]

You're in much greater danger of being lynched than you imagine, so yes, I think you need to adjust your play for readability purposes.

You saying that you're town isn't a reason not to lynch you, because scum say they're town too. And I don't know that you're town, so what you need to be doing is things that show you're town. If you have thoughts, why aren't you posting them? Why aren't you giving us access to your thought process? What's there to hide? What aspects to your play are towny?

Why wouldn't we assume truthful rankings at this point? The scores we've seen have matched the rankings. And the scum both ranked each other 10, which isn't what you'd expect if scum had lied.

[Shoshin]

They do. In fact, DV did it as scum in the games I read.

Do you think scum lied about the rankings?

[Shoshin]

Vote DV?

[Shoshin]

Vax, I'm assuming that you think DV is the worst's partner, so this should be an okay vote. If I'm wrong, can you clarify who TW's partner is?

[Shoshin]

Alright, this is why I'd like to lynch DV:

1. Shepard suspected him in the exact same way that Shepard suspected Fire (i.e. Shepard suspected DV but never made any sort of meaningful push on DV, suggesting that Shepard didn't actually want DV lynched). That's how scum tend to interact with partners when distancing, as you see in the way Shepard interacted with Fire as well as in games all over the site.

2. DV expressed a strong preference for lynching PP over Shepard on D2. Paraphrasing, this is what DV said: "I haven't read enough of Shepard to have an opinoin on him, I just want to lynch PP." I kept pushing DV to read Shepard, asking DV to explain the "weak town tell" and to look into the way that Shepard was misrepresenting me, but DV dodged that entirely to continue voting PP. He never explained the "weak town tell," nor did he make any further effort to read Shepard. Given a choice between PP or Shepard, scum want to lynch PP if they can do so without bringing undue suspicion on themselves. That's what DV did, all while dodging questions about Shepard.

3. DV kept waffling on Shepard on D3. He would say that Shepard was scummy, but then he'd look for another lynch (e.g. Maria). In the same way that Shepard suspected DV without actually wanting to lynch DV, it feels like DV suspected Shepard but didn't actually want to get Shepard lynched. Again, that's how scum tend to interact with each other when they're trying to distance without actually wanting their partner lynched.

4. DV wants to lynch Guac, yet refuses to contemplate who Guac's partner is. This doesn't make any sense from a town DV because the evidence strongly suggests that Guac's town if DV's town. Nahdia gave Guac a 0, so it's unlikely for scum Guac to be partnered with anyone else who gave him a 0 (e.g. TW, or Krazy) or even a 2 (e.g. Espe). In response, DV says that scum could have lied about the rankings, but again, that ignores all the evidence that scum didn't lie about rankings.

5. DV's play is underwhelming compared with his usual play as town. He says he's struggling to figure things out, which is fine, but he also doesn't seem to be putting much effort to actually solve the game. He says he is, but that's too easy for scum to fake. He says he's been thinking about the game a lot, rereading, etc., but he doesn't show us any of the work, so there's no way to believe him. He says he doesn't have to because people think he's town, but that's a very bad excuse for hiding a thought process, especially this late in the game when he's clearly in the lynch pool.

[Shoshin]

If DV flips scum, Pun should shoot Guac. If DV flips town, Pun shouldn't shoot Guac. Pretty simple.

Krazy, why aren't you voting DV?

[Shoshin]

If you've been reading my posts as closely as you indicate (see 3088, you would have noticed that the "weak town tell" I mentioned in regards to Shepard was in relation to their reaction to me visiting them on N1. It would then be pretty easy to infer that my reason for not divulging the details of this tell were because it was related to a role that I didn't want to explicitly claim yet. Yet you include that in your case against me. Either not very well thought through (seems unlikely to me considering the comprehensive nature of your thoughts on me), or deliberately ignored.

I didn't realize that was the "weak town tell" you were referring to. Why would you think that's a town-tell?

You also mention "scum want to lynch PP if they can do so without bringing undue suspicion on themselves". You've seen my scum games. I do struggle to replicate the passion that I often possess as town, but you know that I'm competent. I doubt that you believe I would so obviously dodge questions about a scum partner as scum.

I don't think dodging questions about a scum partner is a sign of incompetence, especially since you're using the fact to defend yourself. If anything, it's a sign of skill.

"Refuses to contemplate who Guac's partner is" is an interesting use of hyperbole when my answer was merely that I don't know who Guac's partner is. The gamestate is such that there is something I'm missing because I can think of strong reasons to consider everyone as town. I am not going to use rankings to clear someone entirely. Maybe scum fudged their numbers slightly (my impression was that rankings weren't exactly as predicted, but I could be wrong). If scum did decide to be honest about their rankings, it's reasonably likely that they would have ranked partners low in some cases. It's basically the same as bussing, which is a thing that happens... all the time? You're projecting the way that you're working things out, yet refusing to consider that it may be different from how others are working things out.

It's not hyperbole, it's reading between the lines, which is what I'm forced to do when you hide your thought process and dodge questions (and yes, you dodged more than the question about Shepard's "weak town tell," you also dodged my early questions about Fire as well as others throughout the game). As for Guac himself, I explained why Guac probably isn't scum if you're town... i.e. because the idea that scum would give a partner two 0s is very unlikely... and sure, lots of things are "possible," but I really don't care about that, I care about what's "probable," so talking about how it's "possible" that scum are bussing or that they gave their partner two 0s isn't responsive to the actual points I'm bringing up.

Again, you know that I'm competent as scum. You know that I can easily fake content to at least look like I'm trying to work things out. Why am I not doing that here?

I never said you haven't faked content. I'm saying the quality of content is underwhelming compared with your town play. As for hiding reasoning, competent scum do that all the time, so I'm not sure why you think that's a meaningful defense.

This post was also suspicious to me. My answer to "Why shouldn't we lynch you?" was "Because I'm town, pretty much". Vax took issue with someone saying "I am town, pretty much", which ignores the fact that the "pretty much" was clearly in response to the "why shouldn't we lynch you?" question, yet you inappropriately use this to convince Vax to lynch me. I don't believe that you believe the "pretty much" part of my post is indicative of my alignment. So why encourage Vax to vote for me using that. It feels rather inauthentic.

I never said the "pretty much" part of your post was AI. To the contrary, I was pointing out that your repsonse wasn't AI, because Vax mistakenly thought it was a town-tell. As you see from my case, that played no part in my suspicion of you. But to the extent Vax thought it was a town-tell, I thought that was a bad reason not to vote you.

If the scum isn't you, it's the worst & Krazy. That's a plausible team, but so is you/Guac. If you convince me that it's the worst & Krazy over you, then I'll vote them. That was my initial instinct coming into this day phase, but rereading the game didn't look good for you in any respect. If you dropped town-tells, point them out for me, because I'm not seeing them.

[Shoshin]

@DV

How'd you go from townreading Shepard to scumreading?

[Shoshin]

@DV

Why do you keep saying that scum fudged the rankings when the evidence suggests they didn't? I don't understand that.

[Shoshin]

Nonetheless, he seemed confident about lynching guac, yet very easily joins Shoshin in voting me, despite reportedly not having a strong scumread on me.

the worst wanted to lynch you over Guac, or at least that was my impression. But I agree with your points about Partition mafia.

Shoshin, I believe you're putting more emphasis on "dodging questions" than you should be. I also don't remember how I went from townreading Shepard to scumreading them, except that I was never strongly townreading the Shepard slot (which you have interpreted as distancing) and in the end decided that my reasons for doubting they were scum just didn't hold up anymore. I've also already answered why I thought their reaction to me visiting them might have been a town tell. Sure, I was wrong, but I don't get the repeated questioning of it.

I didn't interpret "townreading" as distancing. You didn't really explain why town would be more likely to openly suspect you after visiting them than scum? Like, your role isn't AI so that interpretation doesn't make sense to me. You've said it's a town-tell but I don't know why you'd think that.

In regards to the "possible" vs. "probable" argument, the fact that we disagree on reads or even what should constitute reasons for reads, is not something that I believe will be helpful in you working out a read on me.

How are we supposed to make a decision if all you're doing is speculating about possibilities? We can talk all you want about how scum might have fudged the rankings, or how they might have bussed, or whatever, but that doesn't get us any close to making a decision. Like, you give lots of commentary about what's possible but why is that relevant? We need to make a decision, and to do that we need to evaluate what's likely.

I'm not saying that scum fudged the rankings. I'm keeping it in mind as a possibility since the difference between one person giving someone a 4 and giving them a 0 is not going to make a huge difference to the overall score. And I was under the impression that while estimated averages were close, they also weren't quite right, but if I am wrong about this I am happy to be pointed to the evidence that you mention.

Look at Pun's posts on rankings.

[Shoshin]

Shoshin, I feel that you are including in your read of me an attack on how I am approaching this game and I think the fact that I don't agree with you shouldn't be seen as something that is indicative of scum.

My points aren't an attack on how you approach the game, except to the extent that your play here is underwhelming compared with your town play. These are the facts:

1. You pushed Penguin over Shepard on D2 for reasons that don't make a lot of sense to me. Given two wagons, one on town, the other on scum, I think scum are more likely to push the mislynch over a lynch on their partner. I gave you an opportunity to explain your reasoning more in-depth to help me understand your thought process, but instead you're attacking my questioning.

2. You went from townreading Shepard to scumreading Shepard on D3 but you don't know why. I think scum are more likely than town to say something like this because townies usually have a reason for changing their reads, whereas scum often change them as part of an agenda they can't openly talk about.

3. You suspected Shepard throughout D3 but when other options presented themselves (e.g. Maria) you immediately jumped on those instead, which makes me think you didn't actually want to lynch Shepard.

4. Your play has been underwhelming compared to your town play, which you admit.

5. The rankings suggest that Guac's town if you're town, so there's a strong reason to lynch you before Guac. The evidence also suggests that Guac's scum via behaviors, which adds more reason to lynch you via assocations.

6. There aren't any negative associations between you and Fire/Shepard, so there's no reason to clear you on that basis. There's also no clear evidence of town anywhere in your posting. I've asked you for that evidence because maybe I'm missing something, but you haven't pointed to anything.

That's the facts. Yes, I'm interpreting these facts as scummy, but I don't think that means I'm attacking how you approach the game, it means I'm analyzing probability of alignment based on your behaviors. If you're town, you know that I'm wrong, but I don't know that, so from my perspective, this isn't an attack on your approach and just vaguely saying that without actually addressing what I'm saying isn't helpful to sorting you.

[Shoshin]

You think scum gave their partner two 0s?

[Shoshin]

Guac received 0s from the worst AND Shepard...

[Shoshin]

@Krazy

If the worst is town, who are the scum?

If the worst is scum, who is his partner?

[Shoshin]

If DV is town, I promise to lynch the worst tomorrow.

[Shoshin]

And I invite you, Shoshin, to join me.

Wouldn't it be ridiculously beautiful if after all this we led a wagon on scum together.

In some ways it would be even more beautiful if we were both town, the worst is town, and our moment of reuniting resulted in a town lynch!

But I'm also a bit messed up and see beauty in messed up things.

Maybe you're scum and this post will be even more ridiculous.

That would be kind of great

This made me laugh.

[Shoshin]

Hmm.. Maybe DV is town. Maybe he's manipulating me. I dunno. Can't tell.

[Shoshin]

It'd be nice if anyone who isn't voting the worst or DV could weigh in on those lynches...

[Shoshin]

Pun, Guac, and Espe all need to weigh in...

[Shoshin]

Welcome back! Finally might have someone who facepalms as hard at this gamestate as I do.

I suggest you work on convincing Pun to lynch DV, as well as convincing Pun that I'm town, because otherwise you're probably getting lynched today, and without you around, Pun's going to mislynch me tomorrow.

[Shoshin]

I thought tw was one of your top fos? Now he's locktown?

I never said he was locktown so I'm not sure what that's about.

[Shoshin]

the worst, why is DV less likely to flip scum than guac?

[Shoshin]

What do you make of the fact that Krazy gave Screen a 0?

[Shoshin]

VOTE: the worst

If he's town, lynch DV tomorrow.

[Shoshin]

You actually think I'm going to lynch based on fear? I lynch based on likelihood that someone is scum.

[Shoshin]

I find it very scummy when people suggest lynching their townreads because of a "what-if" scenario.

[Shoshin]

the worst, why is DV less likely to flip scum than guac?

I mean I think guac and Krazy are the scumteam so...

Guacamole straight up lied about his action last night which is mind blowingly sketchy. Reconsidering that slot across all owners too srceen was closer to his scum meta than town meta and there wasn't a lot from MWNN that really spewed one way or another. Like this slot just feels like obvscum and I'm annoyed it's mechanically flawed to just lynch it.

and Krazy's play today has been insanely gross and manipulative. The fact he swung in to try and conftown himself??? with insanely bad logic then literally told me my reads are jank because he said so is fucked up and I just don't see town motivation in it. also it happened after the guac/me/Pun reveal which has me like >:/

This is just very very likely to be the scumteam. The wagon on me is crap, obviously scum motivated, and a distraction.

Saying guac/Kazy is "vey very likely to be the scumteam" implies pretty strongly that DV is town.

[Shoshin]

It just doens't make sense that you're suddenly pushing guac/Krazy when it's unlikely that scum would give a partner two 0s. Like, why take that risk?

[Shoshin]

And, we're talking about Screen, someone who plausibly could have died.

[Shoshin]

Shooting guac after the worst flip was really anti-town. Guac was cleared after the worst's flip...

[Shoshin]

Lynch Pun. They're playing anti-town regardless what they say.

[Shoshin]

VOTE: Pun

Can't be trusted to be left alive, especially after shooting obvtown guac.

[Shoshin]

Last scum is probably DV.

[Shoshin]

I said repeatedly that guac's only plausible partner was DV. Guac would have been confirmed town after the worst's flip, at least from my perspective. The role shenanigans would have added further evidence to that.

[Shoshin]

We need to kill Pun today, the last scum tomorrow.

[Shoshin]

Nahdia gave Screen a 0, so I find it hard to believe that Guac's partner is either of the worst, Krazy, or Espe. Krazy and the worst gave Screen a 0. Espe gave him a 2. So, like, most likely partner for Guac is DV. And if DV's town, Guac's probably town and the scum are Krazy and the worst. And if that's not right, then scum pulled some crazy gambit and we're overlooking something.

Like, I don't get why Pun shot guac when it was very clear that the worst's flip cleared guac. From my perspective, Pun killed the towniest player in the game. We can't leave Pun alive because we can't trust Pun anymore. I didn't want to leave them alive yesterday but I figured they were intentionally town siding after shooting Fire. Turns out I was wrong, they can't be trusted, so they need to die today.

[Shoshin]

I was thinking about that...

[Shoshin]

I don't see why scum wouldn't be able to target two different people in the same night, but if that's true, then DV is confirmed town and the last scum is in fact Espe.

[Shoshin]

Either way, we need to lynch Pun today because we can't trust Pun not to kill Vax.

[Shoshin]

Anyone can use multiple powers on the same night.

So DV isn't confirmed...

[Shoshin]

Pun is confirmed scum, DV.

[Shoshin]

Like, why would we leave Pun alive? What's the point?

[Shoshin]

UNVOTE: Pun

[Shoshin]

Have you picked up any associative tells from the worst?

[Shoshin]

I don't see how I could be anything but clear at this point.

[Shoshin]

Like, besides the fact that I lobbied for Shepard's lynch on D2 in a way that scum don't do, I was also the mislynch that scum pushed as counterwagon to Shepard. You'd have to really stretch the imagination to argue that I'm scum.

[Shoshin]

My active ability, Spread the Word, is in fact a conditional vig. When I target someone ranked lower than me, I kill them. You're the only player ranked lower than me and I absolutely refuse to kill you at this point (if for no other reason than it'd render my win impossible and pun should want you dead anyway so I'm not doing their work for them when they screwed me over by not killing you), so I am not going to kill again.

However, I breadcrumbed yet never claimed that there is another half of Spread the Word: when I target someone ranked higher than me, I infect them. This infection does nothing; it doesn't kill them, it doesn't spread, it's completely and entirely harmless. But it is related to my wincon.

What happens if someone is ranked exactly the same as you?

[Shoshin]

Shooting town is undeniably scum-sided, regardless of an earlier shot on scum.

I also don't see why we should believe anything you say, since we know you're not town.

[Shoshin]

Vax, we have to decide between Espe and DV. Why are you leaning Espe?

For the record, Pun wants to mislynch today because Pun wins if we mislynch. So Pun probably thinks Espe is town here.

[Shoshin]

Lynch someone else.
If you lynch the last pun, I lose because I am not a threat to the town and did not fulfill my wincon.
If you lynch town, then I target the player I haven't infected.
If Shoshin was infected and pun nightkill Vaxkiller, then I am removed from the game; presumably, this would result in a pun win.
If the pun doesn't eliminate Vaxkiller or Shoshin wasn't infected, then we get to a 3p situation; I may or may not be able to win but town's chances aren't great.

This analysis is wrong. If we lynch between Espe & DV today, mafia can't win. Either you win, or town wins.

You infect the last mafia (whoever isn't lynched today between Espe & DV). In that case, you win if mafia kill Vax (because every living player would be infected), and town wins if mafia kill you or me (because Vax wouldn't be infected and we'd just lynch the last mafia).

[Shoshin]

VOTE: Pun

[Shoshin]

I wish, but you're wrong; my math is quite correct.

We have 5 alive right now.
A mislynch places us at 4 alive.
The mafia nightkill a player.
3 alive.
If I am removed from the game, it is 2 alive.
Mafia win.

When I win, I am removed from the game.
If I didn't win automatically from the results of the night, then tomorrow I am going to lynch whoever I don't have infected. Yes, if the lynchee then is pun then town wins, but odds are that an uninfected player at that stage is likely to be town, thus a loss.

This is why you shouldn't have killed guac, and it's why you're dying today.

[Shoshin]

DV, why don't you want to lynch Pun today?

[Shoshin]

Ank, why aren't you voting for Pun?

[Shoshin]

DV, why did you townread Espe earlier in the game? And why should I vote that slot over you (please don't say "because I'm town" - give me some actual reasons as to why Espe has been scum based on his behaviors in the game).

[Shoshin]

Because Pun isn't an SK

Who cares what Pun is as long as you know she's not town, she has the ability to kill Vax tonight, and she intentionally scum-sided last night by killing guac?

[Shoshin]

Ank isn't responding to Pun in a natural way at all.

[Shoshin]

DV's response to Pun makes a lot of sense. Pun doesn't want to lynch him today, so it's in DV's interests to lynch mafia today because he's more likely to die tomorrow.

In contrast, Ank should want to lynch Pun today because Ank's chance of lynching DV is much higher tomorrow than today. Yet Ank's not responding that way... Feels like she's trying to hide her actual responses because she's worried it would make her look scummy/survivalistic.

[Shoshin]

I will never lynch Vax. If Vax is scum, this game is already lost.

[Shoshin]

Don't like that response either. Ank's probably scum.

[Shoshin]

We all think pun has a high probablility fo flipping SK so we dont want to take chances there and we are lynchign him today. There is one mroe scum (we are thinking you) and if we lynch Pun today I'm the obvious NK going into tomorrow so that leaves DV, Shoshin, and you.

Which slot started all this paranoia on Punreader being an SK? That's probably your scum right there.

Bonus points if they're also the reason that this slot is currently the highest scum equity slot in everyone's eyes; it's a pretty simple endgame to bring the slot that's having the least impact on the game all the way to 3p LyLo, especially with the suboptimal play of lynching the third party right before that.

This suggests that Ank believes scum would want to lynch Pun, which means Ank probably would want to lynch Pun as scum.

Yet when I called Ank on that, she says that's not true.

Ank's scum.

We can lynch her after Pun.

[Shoshin]

What do you think, Ank?

[Shoshin]

I'm not lynching DV today, so that's not happening.

The lynch is either Ank or Pun.

[Shoshin]

You understand that I said the scum plan was to lynch Pun and then me, correct?

Is that what you were saying?

[Shoshin]

Ank's scum.

[Shoshin]

DV, what're your reasons to believe I'm town?

[Shoshin]

lol it's actually funny to see what scum Ank look like...

[Shoshin]

VOTE: Ankamius

This ends the game.

[Shoshin]

Ank's logic:

"The scum would want to lynch Pun, so I'm going to say the scum are the people who have been pushing for Pun's lynch. But if I were scum, I wouldn't want to lynch Pun in this situation."

Ank thinks it's scummy to lynch Pun, so she's intentionally doing the opposite. The scummy part is that when I called her on this, she says that even if she were scum she wouldn't be pushing Pun, which shows that her scumhunting logic comes from a scum perspective rather than a town one.

[Shoshin]

Vax, it just delays the game. Like, if Pun's honest about role, lynching Ank should end the game. And if Pun's lying and she's an SK, we just lynch her tomorrow.

[Shoshin]

You're town?

[Shoshin]

Are you fucking with me?

[Shoshin]

Yeah, I couldn't see how you could possibly be town here...

[Shoshin]

Why would town want to no lynch? That doesn't make any sense.

[Shoshin]

VOTE: Pun