Open 737: Stack the Deck (Game Over)

[ruru]

Hey guys I'm traitor no shoot pls

VOTE: Almost50

[ruru]

Also how about we stop talking about how many prs we think scum can claim

[ruru]

I think it's like actively antitown because it informs scum's decision of what to claim

[ruru]

Also, what do you think about my case on Sky? I think it's very convincing and I would appreciate your vote there. Thank you.

Okay fine, just for you

VOTE: Skygazer

[ruru]

Suppose you're a scum at L1 and you have to decide what to claim, you have information that town will probably believe n+1 PRs existing, so you claim PR

[ruru]

If scum really claimed pr every time then town could just confirm themselves by claiming vt

[ruru]

[ruru]

However -in my experience- joking about lynching the IC always comes from scum.

[ruru]

do u have something u wanna say or no?

I'm meming

Once upon a time, a50 and I played a game where he (as town) scumread the outed IC because he wasn't reading the game

[ruru]

Okay fine I'll make an effortpost

i expect town!ruru to be more opionated/stubborn almost? like if she thinks you're wrong about the pr stuff i kinda expect a long novel about why exactly you're wrong. like she wasn't as forceful about it as i'd expect her to be if that makes sense

About this, I don't actually care about arguing with people whom I think are super wrong about mechanical stuff unless it's going to change the outcome of the game

In this case a lot of the setup spec that was bothering me was already done and people aren't really doing it anymore

i said a couple of times that i wanted to pressure her and i kinda expect town!her to engage with that in some way, or to like respond to me? she knows i can locktown her pretty easily as town so avoiding that feels kinda wrong?

It's like pretty hard for me to take your vote on me seriously when you already called it a "pressure vote" and like I pretty much expect you to read me correctly before eod anyway regardless of your alignment? And I'd rather just be shitposting lol

[ruru]

I know exactly what you're saying

[ruru]

not really sure what to make of shitposting!you

are you changing your writing style?

Weird question

I don't think I've ever been a player who rushes out of rvs as town

What do you mean by

regardless of your alignment

here (i.e. skitter's)? Why would skitter not know your alignment if she was scum?

If skitter is still scumreading me at eod, correct play is to lynch me and then lynch her, and scum.her is probably aware of that and therefore probably won't try to mislynch me

I also think skitter is probably town

Some of my posts yesterday were scumpinging me after I wrote them, so I'm not terribly surprised that she's scumreading me

I also don't know if she would bother to try to fake sorting me as scum when I'm a strategically bad mislynch and she could just call me obvtown and shoot me and move on

(Unless she thinks I could actually be traitor and is traitor-hunting me xd)

[ruru]

Good try, though, I can see it make sense but I think this might just be sky being sky lol

Okay so personally I don't view sky trolling as AI so much as I think someone who's voting the IC is an okay place for my vote

but like I don't see a strong reason to townread her or why is it "good try" when she easily could have randed scum or who's scummier if she's not scum

[ruru]

this might be a weird thing to say but i kinda think that shitposting is kinda more likely to come from scum!you? you're pretty competitive as either alignment and i feel like town!you would have gotten into the game already and not have to be like drawn out of rvs and that you'd have more of a presence but i can kinda see scum!you affecting a shitposting/meme-y style so that if people question you why you're acting different you can say that you're just shitposting

You should probably read more of my early d1 meta if this is a serious concern

eli5 why this is correct play? (ie specifically why you get lynched before me and why everyone ought to lynch you because i'm scumreading you)

Historically you read me accurately on d1, so it would be similar to a guilty

like someone saying their own posts are scumpinging them is kinda strange?

Sometimes I write a post and realize that it contains scumtells or that I would to some extent scumread it, and then I either delete it or post it anyway

(also I'm more likely to delete as scum)

[ruru]

I guess I spoke too soon about the setup spec being done

[ruru]

y do u make this seem like only u do it?

y do u make this seem like i make this seem like only i do it?

[ruru]

Because it factors into me townreading skitter

[ruru]

VOTE: FrankJaeger

[ruru]

I mean that is a bit reachy regarding lynching skitter if she scumreads you (correctly) and you end up being lynched. Why are you suggesting the correct play is to lynch her after you are lynched (regardless of flip) - yes scum can bus, but (town) skitter can and should also be able to scumread you (correctly or incorrectly) without dooming her to being PLd after you are lynched?

@ruru can you respond to this please?

... because I'm town and I'll flip town? Like seriously this is a stupid question and I'm kinda having a hard time getting into the game because the majority of the playerlist seems to be having trouble understanding where I'm coming from wrt mafia theory when I don't think I'm being particularly unclear or particularly wrong in what I'm saying

I'd much rather answer sorting questions than mafia theory questions

I actually want to policy lynch like everyone right now

Historically you read me accurately on d1, so it would be similar to a guilty

idk i wouldn't really call something like this a guilty; more like a fairly-strong meta-based read

Are you calling your current read on me a fairly-strong meta-based read ("this")?

wait now i'm confused; i thought it was a factor in how i read you; how does it factor into how you read me?

If I thought I'd obvtowned already I would be scumreading you

Unfortunately I don't have strong reads and I don't feel like talking to anyone so basically I haven't done anything and I understand the scumread on me

[ruru]

you continue to claim that you are intentionally playing somewhat scummy

I'm not playing intentionally scummy and I didn't claim to be playing intentionally scummy

There's a difference between playing intentionally scummy and not bothering to intentionally craft the towniest-sounding post possible (which I sometimes do as town)

For example, when I voted skygazer, I thought it might look like a scummy vote, but I also thought it had positive utility outside of just "is this going to get me townread or not"

Can you explain your Jager vote then?

I'm not townreading him

[ruru]

Any reason you're not voting frank?

[ruru]

It's going to be one of those games where day 1 lasts 2 weeks

[ruru]

Okay let's do this

I think hws could be scum. I'm not super confident because he has a lynchbaity meta, but, brief case:

Good try, though, I can see it make sense but I think this might just be sky being sky lol

This feels like a tmi post, especially the words "good try". I don't strongly agree with a50's moonscumcase nor his moontowncase on sky, but I'm nulltowning her in part because of this post. (I still think voting the IC is still policy lynchable btw)

I voted frank and hws is townreading me, but he chose to vote GE instead (who had no votes on him) even though he says they're equally scummy and scummy for the same reason when I think normal town behavior would be to sheep my vote

I think frank is on the policy lynchable side of nullscum but when someone is leaving a weird associative I'd rather lynch the giver than the receiver.

VOTE: HeWhoSwims

[ruru]

Also @frank how are you reading hws?

I guess I should have asked this before my last post

[ruru]

Also, you do realize I'm now the prime target for a Vig shot? In fact, here's a list of all possible TPRs in this setup:

- Goon Cop: Probably gonna check me, but maybe scum!me picked a modifier
- Roleblocker: Probably will consider targeting me, bit maybe I don't do the NK tonight

Hint: If scum picked no modifier it's one or the other, and if it's a Goon Cop I'm doomed. If they did pick at least one modifier then both could be applicable and I've just wasted my N1 action

- Tracker: Similar to RB (i.e. I won't be the one carrying the NK tonight)
- Bodyguard: I sure as hell am not going to be protected by them anyway. Not with an IC in play.
- Vigilante: Check the start of this post. Anyone who might not be sure what I'm doing will probably just "do it"

Now think about me being the Traitor: Vig shooting me and me not dying is a red herring. They may assume they were RB'd on N1 so that saves me from the lynch, but then they're sure to try again on N2, and if I don't die I'm going to be lynched on D3 regardless.

Now, reread and recalculate.. does SCUM!ALMOST50 know all this, and still do what he is doing?? Why would scum!me be

baiting the Vig shot

at all????

I'm confused

I don't feel like you should be copped or vigged tonight and definitely not both? Like the characteristics that make someone a good vig shot are opposite or orthogonal to the characteristics that make someone a good peek

Also we should be voting on the vig shot and like you could reasonably predict that I'm going to yell at everyone at some point today until it happens

I'm not sure why you think bugging vex is so likely to get you vigged either way

[ruru]

Also we should be voting on the vig shot and like you could reasonably predict that I'm going to yell at everyone at some point today until it happens

why haven't you pushed for this yet if you think this is a thing we ought to do?

What are you trying to accomplish with this question?

[ruru]

Getting yourself lynched d1 is hardly optimal traitor play, especially not if you're a50 and have a strong scumgame

We should also just agree to never vig or gc jestery players (sky, a50) and use the lynch on them instead if they're widely scumread

[ruru]

because i was skimming some of your other games this morning that i wasn't in and you were town in all of them and you were pretty focused on organizing optimal pr/mechanical play from pretty early on and here you feel more lackadaisical about it which is uncharacteristic of you imo

Okay, so first of all

- I'm not looking forward to it because this town doesn't seem very receptive to optimal mechanical play and I don't actually enjoy arguing with people
- It feels approximately two days into d1 even though I just realized it isn't because we can't seem to form a non-rvs wagon. There is no sense of urgency at all about needing to pick a vig shot
- I like winning but I also like working together with people I know and enjoy playing with. Unfortunately skygazer isn't playing and has only voted the IC and you're calling me scum so that lowers my engagement level significantly

Second of all, I think I've towntold since we last talked about your scumread on me so I don't really like that your read hasn't changed at all

Like I basically think of your recent post toward me as a leading question / generic shading and absolutely useless to sorting me

What's the scum motivation of "leaving out" a pro-town plan while mentioning in passing that I'm going to execute said plan today?

I also don't like that you're still nullscum-reading me after I made it clear that confidently scumreading me would get you lynched: in a bayesian sense, this is more likely to come from scum

So basically my townread on you is kind of wearing out

[ruru]

Getting yourself lynched d1 is hardly optimal traitor play, especially not if you're a50 and have a strong scumgame

We should also just agree to never vig or gc jestery players (sky, a50) and use the lynch on them instead if they're widely scumread

this post feels wrong and i need to think about why

This is also generic shading and it's literally for the opposite thing that you just shaded me for (not pushing my mechanical ideas vs pushing them), so I need you to explain the why

[ruru]

Also I don't really think a50 is scum here, and if he's traitor trying to identify himself it's weird that he left a third party tell when he wagoned skygazer

If I were scum I would probably assume he wasn't traitor based off that? So maybe he shouldn't be in the jestery pile either

[ruru]

i think it's that 'never viging or gc'ing jestery players feels kinda like an overkill reaction given that traitors are 1s bp and both vig/gc can use their role each night and we don't even know if a traitor exists

Wasting a shot for no benefit compared to just lynching the traitor, or even for negative utility in the case of gc, is bad whether or not prs have multiple shots

It's like completely unrelated

[ruru]

if you're not feeling engaged right now in general i guess it's probably not ai but that's a major component of how i read you and it's lacking right now

like i don't really know how to townread you if you're not doing those things and i think it's kinda unreasonable of you to expect me to townread you when you're not behaving in the way that makes me townread you (and i'm pretty sure you know what i townread you for? we talked about it a lot in 721)

I know that I'm tonereadable and that tone was a large factor in 721 and I think I've generated enough content here where my tone isn't super nervous which it is when I'm scum

But yes, I'm not very interested in the game and have no confident scumreads and while I think the latter

is

somewhat scum-indicative for me and people in general I also can't control it

where do you think you've towntold?

I don't frame this as "I believe skitter can read me accurately" and "lynch skitter after I flip if she's confidently scumreading me" as scum

Also I started playing the game

i don't know if there's inherent scum motivation in not starting the vig thing but again not pushing for that makes me feel like you're less engaged/less interested in optimizing the mechanics which feels kinda uncharacteristic of town!you

also wrt to the bolded:

you're conflating scumreading you with lynching you - i almost feel like you're trying to nudge me away from scumreading you by saying that if a scumread you (and thus lynch you!) i will be in trouble the next day, almost like you're trying to deter me from scumreading you by saying that i'll be scumread if i do. not like you're threatening me exactly but trying to frame that scumreading you is against my own best interest sort of

You have a history of reading me accurately so if you're confidently scumreading me then from a third person perspective lynching me is objectively correct and yes I would argue against it because I know my alignment but mechanically speaking, yes I am conflating those two

If you're nullscumreading me and just kind of passively shading my slot then I think it's less good to lynch me and more good to lynch you from a third person perspective

I do to some extent belong to the rc school of cultivating a meta where people aren't allowed to scumread me and lynching people who do unless they're obvious town

But this isn't that, this is you have meta experience and historical success in reading me that makes me expect a correct read from you in particular

like why do i bother calling you scummy at all if i believe that calling you scummy is going to get me lynched tomorrow? like if i actually believe that's going to happen why don't i just switch to townreading you and drop the whole thing entirely?

I think nullscumreading me without pushing my lynch is a perfectly viable option for scum.you here because it means I won't necessarily flip and immediately implicate you while still letting you shade my slot and leaving open the option of being off-wagon but not protesting strongly if I end up widely scumread, or of pushing my lynch on later days when it's deemed more worth the risk, or whatever else

It's noncommittal and I think that's somewhat scummy

But that's like 10% of my issue, 90% of my issue is that I do think my more recent posts have been more town-indicative and your read hasn't quantitatively changed at all or even gained any qualitative nuance which is what I would expect from town.you

[ruru]

also frank's pop-in is scummy.

[ruru]

also frank's pop-in is scummy.

Actually I withdraw this based on something something sitewide

[ruru]

ruru

Spoiler:

A LOT of self meta. Thats a scum move. Intro super scum, but has a few posts I like later on. Agree with a few reads. (Null)

Am I really hard null? I think I've produced enough readable content

Aside from the Sky wagon it's just been spec talk and a few awkward back and fourths.

All I got for now

Interestingly in this post you didn't express a strong scumread on me even though my intro was "super scum"

[ruru]

Now I kind of want to lynch frank and lynch hws if he reds

GE might be designated mislynch?

[ruru]

VOTE: Frank
HURT: hws

[ruru]

I guess it's time for the post now

[ruru]

Thing A

We're voting on vig shots

This is a good thing because:

• PRs can claim so they don't get shot (note: if you are a PR lined up to be vigged and either you're vig or feel there is a low chance of vig existing, you can and possibly should claim vt)
  
• Individuals are biased and have varying levels of competence and therefore tend to have worse reads than the majority on average
  
• More associative reads

Thing B

1. Please read this if you haven't

https://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/th ... (by-Yates)

2. We're doing it starting tomorrow

And I'm policy lynching you if you don't, even if you're a cute baby monkey!

3. We're doing it right

How to pick cop/hypocop targets:

• Unlikely lynch
  
• Unlikely nightkill
  
• Useful if town
  
• Dangerous if scum
  
• Hard to read

DO NOT TRY TO LYNCH YOUR HYPO-INNO

GC can give false negatives but if you think someone is lockscum such that you will read them as scum PR or traitor despite a GC inno, you probably shouldn't be copping them which means you probably shouldn't be hypocopping them

Occasionally hypoclaiming "either I was roleblocked or I investigated a dead player" is also worthwhile as it could happen to the real GC (and scum don't know who was roleblocked anyway)

[ruru]

Now skitter can tr me haha xd

[ruru]

im personally fine with leaving whatever the fuck a50 is alive for now and hanging frank

[ruru]

keep certain parties interested

Oh you know I'm interested!

[ruru]

@ruru: Scum can't claim a TPR bc I rolled ALL TPRs (with the exception of Creature's IC).

What if a50 is actually all the scum prs at once

[ruru]

Just lynch all of them

[ruru]

Still waiting on ru and a50 to talk to me

... and I'm still waiting for you to explain why you're nullreading me when you're calling the majority of my content scummy self-meta and not giving any further analysis

Your readslist has only three townreads in a game with twelve players

Two of them are "leans", and one of them is a "small lean"

so basically I think I'm in the "lynch later" pile but you don't think it's politically viable so you just called me null

[ruru]

Do you think a50 is bp?

[ruru]

ok

HURT: mwnn

(he hasn't been anywhere on site since thursday it looks like, even on his main)

Why do you want to vig him when we can replace him?

Weren't you flaming a50 over "v/la is scummy"

How is voting a siteflaked player productive

and you don't sound super-nervous as scum (i know you're self-conscious as scum but it doesn't super come off in your posts)

Semantics aside, you tred me on page 2 or something for not being "nervous-awkward" in 721 and I'm not nervous-awkward here

Also I feel like you in particular should be townreading 218 and it was partially a reaction test

Is there a particular reason you're not townreading 218?

[ruru]

viewtopic.php?p=9424014#p9424014

I directly copied the wording from here which based on your most recent post I assume you didn't think I'd done it intentionally

[ruru]

That was the wording you used before the editing occurred, my wording was copied from the final version ('I'm not scum and I did not "scumclaim".')

I would kinda think rc editing your scumpost to make it super town would leave an impression? Like you would remember the differences both when writing scumposts and when reading other people too

[ruru]

actually this might be moon logic

[ruru]

Because in the universe where you think exactly the same way as me it would make you.me townread me.me except that's not actually how logic works so whatever

[ruru]

Is that sarcasm

[ruru]

439 was pure sarcasm because the hypocop post is 100% nai and skitter was scumreading me for not making it a couple days earlier which is really silly

also hi ceejay!

[ruru]

439 was pure sarcasm because the hypocop post is 100% nai and skitter was scumreading me for not making it a couple days earlier which is really silly

also hi ceejay!

Yeh ok haha. NAI.
Do you still TR skitter btw?

No

My reaction test was probably silly but

I'm conflicted between her probably not wanting to pick a 1v1 with me as scum and the fact that she should've townread me like 10 pages ago and her saying "oh ruru is kinda town now" and sheeping my lynchpool doesn't really make me feel better about her?

I don't like her mwnn vote either

I don't like the weird burden on me to make a post about mechanics by a certain time. If anything I think town.her would be more likely to just not comment it and then scumread me at eod if I still hadn't done it, shading me for not having made the post yet is just weird

And if we're talking about me reading her reactively it's because her posting style is naturally townish as either alignment (source) and I give bop a fairly strong weight when reading her especially when it comes to reading me which she's historically good at

[ruru]

i think i would have just called you obvtown, pocketed you, and shot you at some convenient time as scum tbh

i don't think i bother going this route as scum like this, especially since you said you thought i get pl'd the next day if i'm wrong

but you've since then made it clear that

you

didn't think you'd get lynched tomorrow so this is just another case of me projecting my own thought process onto you when in reality you might not have thought of scumreading me as that risky

and you never did commit to a confident scumread on me that would actually get you lynched tomorrow

so yes I initially townread you for this but I no longer see it as particularly clearing

i think empty slots are basically exactly what vig shots are for

Um, the

whole point

of voting on vig shots is so we can use it like a lynch and target widely scumread players and get associative/gamestate reads and not shoot prs not like a "lol let's shoot the hard null afk slot" even though there are 2 potential investigative roles that are much better suited to hard null slots anyway

Do you have any town meta where you expressed a similar sentiment?

Unless of course you think v/la is scummy

(ironically I think v/la

is

slightly scummy but you've made it perfectly clear you don't.)

i don't know if my reads are good enough in a general sense to bop me tho; i have tendency to get hard-tunneled, which can last several dayphases and i'm not very good at breaking out of it by myself; i usually need someone like math to talk me out of it

Okay whatever if we're going this route

I think you're a strong player and I think you have decently high scum equity and you're not innoing me which you should be doing as town here and you're arguing against being boped which is how I normally deal with players whom I think are stronger than me

If you want to just exist in the game and have no accountability for a slot that you should be able to read and have no accountability for not getting shot then you should probably just be lynched.

i'm kinda aware that i might be tunneled here which is partially why i'm not going full-force on this, especially since both vex and a50 think you're town. also i think my reads get better the later on in the game i am; like i'm aware that my mid-day1 reads aren't always great so i kinda take them with a grain of salt

Town skitter lynches mathdino d1 and tunnels obvtown oxy who had double everyone else's postcount for 2 days straight and doesn't afraid of anything even when she's wrong so I don't know why you're discounting your reads ahead of time here again

And "am I tunneling?" is something I said in 1859 because I knew my scumread was on town

[ruru]

i think that in general my reads lategame are a lot better than early game - like i've been correct in xylo all but once but i've more than once been on a day1 mislynch (which tends to happen because i get tunneled early which is why i'm like trying not to do that), or townread scum day1

Like almost everyone has bad d1 reads but bop shouldn't apply to you lategame because reasons

And bop on someone you know how to toneread shouldn't apply to you because reasons

i don't think that saying 'i need more time to sort you' is the same thing as saying i want to 'just exist in the game and have no accountability for a slot that you should be able to read and have no accountability for not getting shot '

I don't think arguing that bop shouldn't apply to you is the same thing as saying "i need more time to sort you'

[ruru]

vig pl-worthy players

You're talking about pling a slot that's hours from being force replaced that's completely different from nm.

[ruru]

like i almost feel like you're trying to pick a fight with me or something? or that we're talking past each other?

You're passive-aggressively shading everything I do and half of your questions don't even feel like you're trying to sort me in good faith

Like what do you expect me to do in this situation?

[ruru]

I'm saying you should be boped a) if you confidently scumread me and I flip town or b) if it's lategame and you haven't found scum

a) is a personal expectation based on our game history

b) is because you're a strong player as both alignments

i don't know if my reads are good enough in a general sense to bop me tho; i have tendency to get hard-tunneled, which can last several dayphases and i'm not very good at breaking out of it by myself; i usually need someone like math to talk me out of it

This is as far as I can tell you undermining your own reads in a general sense and saying you categorically shouldn't be boped

[ruru]

This game's awful

[ruru]

the slots that I'm most interested in right now (hws/sky/cjv) are all afk

well I guess I'm interested in this: how are you reading frank/hws/sky/antihero/enigma?

[ruru]

Actually how about this

VOTE: Skygazer
HURT: Frank

ellitell and frank needs to die but sky is more likely to be bp I think

[ruru]

a50 what are your thoughts on sky ellitelling

[ruru]

Oh no!

HURT: sky

do you disagree that sky has high bp equity?

[ruru]

By bp here I mean in general a player who is acting jestery and has high bp/traitor equity

my vote on frank was 70% policy and 30% scumread and I think sky ellitelling is probably much more scum-indicative

like I think sky's more likely to be any given scum role including bp/traitor just by nature of being more likely to be scum

[ruru]

yes

[ruru]

i don't know if a vig exists, a traitor exists, or if a bp-goon exists so overall bp-equity-ness is not something i'm overthinking too much

also i think baiting a vig shot as bp-goon is dumb, and if she were the traitor i think she kinda got her point across in rvs so i don't know why she'd continue behaving in that jester-y fashion as you call it

i think she's scummy, but more in a passive sense while frank is like actively scummy. frank is number one on my flip-list so i'm voting him

Frank is like never making endgame regardless of whether a vig exists

Do you actually think frank has higher bp equity than sky or do you just think my plan is stupid?

[ruru]

How highly do you rate ellitell in general?

[ruru]

@GE

the slots that I'm most interested in right now (hws/sky/cjv) are all afk

well I guess I'm interested in this: how are you reading frank/hws/sky/antihero/enigma?

I'm actually pretty interested in your answer here

[ruru]

why has nobody talked about vig holstering? unless i missed it

Random shooting is +ev and we're voting on the shot in a setup with an IC and no counter mechanics to telegraphing the shot so it's even more +ev

[ruru]

How highly do you rate ellitell in general?

in a general sense, like medium strongly, but i also think it's very player and context specific - like does the player in question like playing scum, whether or the game in question is active or slogging, etc

i don't know sky well enough to know whether or not she likes playing scum

i dislike more that the only thing she had to say upon being prodded was 'on no' instead of providing game-related content at that point

Can you check sky's profile then instead of just voting frank if you rate ellitell highly

like you may or may not reach the conclusion as me that she's more likely to be bp or more likely to be scum in general but I really think you should at least do it and tell me your conclusion

I agree that sky's posting is bad but if that's all I went off of then I'd be voting frank

I don't have personal experience with ellitell finding scum (I've only seen it give a false positive on ofrhz) nor do I know exactly how highly to rate it so basically I'm interested in other people's opinions here

[ruru]

Sky please towntell somehow because my enjoyment of the game is super low right now and I don't actually want you to be scum

[ruru]

[ruru]

okay what do you think of the other lurky players

[ruru]

fine I'll just talk to myself.

[ruru]

@hws

Do you think a50 is bp?

[ruru]

In those 5 pages the number of pagetops, posts about pagetops, jokes about pagetops, and posts about setup make up an awfully large portion of his total posts.

I really don't like pagetop grabbing.. I know many townies do it but it doesn't help at all and sometimes people compete over them which helps artificially boost post and page counts. It's a bit of a personal bias of mine.

I also default scumread this but do you think it's AI for enigma?

[ruru]

To me, a player like that is better off being vigged

this needs further explanation

[ruru]

@vex if you think sky is traitor you should be voting her for the lynch and frank for the vig

[ruru]

Hey ruru, how you doing?

hi

[ruru]

we dont have confirmed vig, and frank is scummier than sky rn
assuming sky is traitor, she cant really do a whole lot of damage on her own rn, so why would we waste the day hanging someone who cant really do a whole lot?

Neither can frank

I don't see why the lynch order matters so much unless you have associatives between them

[ruru]

What kind of question is that

[ruru]

"rather lynch the scummier one" is not really a good reason

Lynching the scummiest player every day is not necessarily optimal and losing a town-controlled kill on a bp is pretty bad

Like, we agree frank is never making endgame, so why does he have to die today? Do you think he's going to manipulate town's opinions? Do you think he's a scum pr?

Even lynching sky tomorrow and vigging someone else (I nominate hws especially if frank flips red) tonight is probably better if we're traitor-reading sky

[ruru]

What kind of question is that

Dunno

Do you feel like answering that?

Read my embarassingly awkward scum meta I guess

[ruru]

IMO vig null-scum read lurkers who won't aren't so interested in engaging in the game - contributing as town or defending themselves as either alignment. Just my opinion, but the information gain on associative from trying to lynch a lurker (maybe scum, though hard to read due to lack of content) is less compared to lynching someone who is active but scummy.
Not claiming this mafia theory or correct, rather just my thoughts and because I kinda rely more on associative for hunting

But we're voting on the vig shot so that we

do

get associatives from both

it's almost exactly like a lynch except we don't want to hit bp

[ruru]

How is frank scummier than sky if sky is certainly scum wtf

[ruru]

id much rather lose a potential vig kill n1 to ensure we get a vig kill n2 versus having two groupscum alive, and getting no vig kill n1/2 if that makes sense

I've read this like 20 times and still don't understand it

[ruru]

you're comparing the wrong things

[ruru]

yes, vigging bp scum is good but if the alternative is lynching bp scum it's not good

it's literally removing a town-controlled kill it would be like intentionally nolynching today

[ruru]

it would be like intentionally nolynching today

okay this is hyperbole but it's trading a kill on mafia for a guilty (barring weird rb interaction) on mafia

one of those is way better than the other

[ruru]

okay, I see what you mean about groupscum being a more valuable kill (I'm not sure yet if I agree) but even if that's the case we can lynch sky d2 and vig someone else

shooting someone you think is traitor is like 100% wrong.

[ruru]

pagetop dayvig

more like the best amirite

the above does sound like jesterposting

[ruru]

that was a meme from another game and not a serious read

[ruru]

The other posts referencing jesterness weren't really memes

I don't personally particularly traitor-read sky-slot but I think it's more likely to be scum than frank (which makes it inherently more likely to be traitor than frank)

(sorry tw )

[ruru]

yes

[ruru]

(also like other people are traitor-reading her, so maybe my read isn't good)

[ruru]

I guess voting the ic is somewhat jestery and could be her trying to identify herself to groupscum (I forgot about this)

I don't think the rest of her trolling means much

I think the ellitell means a lot and it's the main reason I want to lynch her

[ruru]

okay that's spicy

[ruru]

skitter what do you think of ceejay?

has anyone else played with him before?

[ruru]

I meant besides you

[ruru]

I guess what I'm trying to understand is if it's normal for cj or not like I thought he has a lynchbaity meta and always lurks?

so I'm wondering what produces that kind of confidence in reading him

[ruru]

about the confidence I was referring to tw

[ruru]

wait I actually misread his post I think

[ruru]

VOTE: ceejayvinoya
if I'm wrong on this blow my mind, friend

I guess this is "ceejay needs to post" not "ceejay is obvscum"?

[ruru]

That was supposed to be a sorting question but since ~everyone apparently has this misconception I'm not going to scumread you for it:

if we suspect someone of being bp, it should

always

be resolved with a lynch and not a vig shot

the vig shot doesn't have any investigative utility because if someone is town they're just going to die.

[ruru]

Ohmygod of course you're here

Ruru yes I thought a51 could be bp after the debacle

-town50 doesn't gain anything or am I wrong there? Only a vig bullet if present?
-scum50 would use it as wifom material.

Correct or nah
I'll try and read up

also to answer your question I doubt he was looking for anything other than reactions

[ruru]

@skitter

I'll vote Frank if his lynch will help you crack the game open

this post (and the cjv vote to some extent) pinged me but that's about it so I'm curious what you saw

[ruru]

cjv thoughts on tw?

[ruru]

do you know why tw is scumreading you?

[ruru]

cj is legitimately scummy here having essentially no reaction to a scumread from someone he just finished playing scum with

[ruru]

it's more like I would think you would want to know why he's scumreading you if you think he's town or before giving out a townread

[ruru]

I thought ceejay wasn't that scummy in 722 except for a specific thing that he hasn't done here (but that I wouldn't expect to show up frequently anyway)

I default scumread lurking but ceejay does it every game

I didn't have much of a read on him this game but I think his non-reaction to tw's read is scummy

so I'm not sure where tw is coming from

[ruru]

or "was" I should say

[ruru]

this game feels like a loss.

[ruru]

It's semi-mountainous and creatue rolling ic is negative utility because he'd probably be doing more if he was just vt

I don't trust your alignment

a50 is probably town but I don't know how much of his towniness is rolecard and how much of it is him trying harder on his main account

the whole pool of {gamma, frank, enigma, hws, cjv} is basically doing nothing and the players who are doing things are going to get shot and then the game is going to be left up to randomness and normally it's possible to clear 1-2 lynchbaity players d1 by forcing them to towntell but nobody has done that.

[ruru]

what makes you think frank is definitely scum and not just badtown

[ruru]

(I was asking skitter)

like I have the awful feeling that his posts just make me want to lynch him but that scum would try harder not to make enemies of everyone

but he hasn't towntold in the way I was looking for either

[ruru]

don't know what to do with cj/gamma/buj

being unable to townread anyone in the "not getting shot" pile is like literally the way nightful games are lost

[ruru]

VOTE: ceejay
HURT: frank

[ruru]

also just noting that the general resistance ot the frank wagon points to scum!frank

what resistance?

hasn't he been the leading wagon for most of the game

[ruru]

VOTE COUNT 1.13

Almost50 (3):

BuJaber, Gamma Emerald, FrankJaeger

HeWhoSwims (0):

Skygazer (1):

ruru

ruru (0):

BuJaber (0):

ceejayvinoya (0):

Enigma (0):

FrankJaeger (5):

Almost50, Vex Vience, skitter30, Creature, Enigma

(L-2)

Creature (0):

Gamma Emerald (1):

HeWhoSwims

skitter30 (0):

Vex Vience (0):

Not Voting (2):

Skygazer, ceejayvinoya

With

12

alive, it takes

7

to lynch.
Day 1 ends in (expired on 2018-09-10 09:40:00)

Other

:
- skitter30 V/LA Fridays and Saturdays
- HeWhoSwims V/LA until Friday 9/7
- Skygazer needs to be replaced

[ruru]

this was L-1 with my vote effectively on him as well

[ruru]

I'm catching up in the middle of the vig talk and don't see why scum A51 would want to gambit bait the vig shot... As either alignment? I feel the only way to resolve this is shooting him and if he doesn't die he's the BP goon? Or is tired!hws being dumb here

for the record hws is an honorary member of that wagon and they can't be all scum

[ruru]

that wasn't meaning to contradict you although it probably sounded like it

[ruru]

okay, I see what you mean about groupscum being a more valuable kill (I'm not sure yet if I agree) but even if that's the case we can lynch sky d2 and vig someone else

shooting someone you think is traitor is like 100% wrong.

this is one that feels off to me, not because of burnout, but just because it doesnt seem right
killing off groupscum is much better to do, because if they didnt recruit traitor, theres two disconnected mafia

Associative tells tend to get scum caught so even if you're right it's not obvious to me: maybe scum would perform better if they didn't know each other's alignments.

either way vigging a traitor is still completely, factually idiotic.

what makes you think frank is definitely scum and not just badtown

again, this post just feels off, why wouldnt ruru bring this up earlier, why only bring it up now?

my vote on frank was 70% policy and 30% scumread and I think sky ellitelling is probably much more scum-indicative

read the game before you call my posts scummy.

also, vig shot does have investigative utility:
player doesnt die: bp / traitor, meaning 100% of the time, they are scum
player does die: anything else

I'm a math major please just sheep me on this being the wrong way to think about the game

I will allcaps if I have to but I'd really rather not

[ruru]

my assets as a town player are being obvious town because I'm really bad at scum and making mechanically correct decisions

my reads tend to be mediocre and heavily rely on other people's opinions so I need those two things to succeed.

if you're trying to tilt me out of the game by undermining both of those assets then congrats.

[ruru]

whatevetr I'll read the rest later

[ruru]

I townread enigma now at least

[ruru]

VOTE: frank
HURT: hws

ceejay wagon was fun but I think I'm back here

maybe leave tw alive today in case he's town, and if we actually arrive at a townread on tw then we can lynch ceejay with more certainty

ceejay is like nullscum to me but it's conceivable that scum.tw would try to push through a 1 for 1 with a lynchbaity player after replacing into an almost dead slot

they could also be s/s but anyway I don't want to lynch tw today and I don't think it actually makes sense to lynch ceejay when he's not as scummy as tw-slot

[ruru]

okay fine, just for you

HURT: ceejay

I actually forgot you were hard sring him off meta as well

[ruru]

I'm testing this for the first time, let me know if it's wrong

votecount

With 12 alive it takes 7 to vig.

ceejayvinoya (3):	skitter30 (1016),	Almost50 (1051),	ruru (1052),
FrankJaeger (2):	Vex Vience (991),	Gamma Emerald (1001),
the worst (1):	Enigma (743),
Not voting (6):	HeWhoSwims,	the worst,	BuJaber,	ceejayvinoya,	FrankJaeger,	Creature,

[ruru]

I think it's time for frank to claim

[ruru]

I think it's time for frank to claim

Someone 2nd this please

we still have to deal with vig things before eod

ceejay shouldn't claim before frank (or we should be lynching ceejay)

there are also a couple posts I want to make before eod and before ceejay claims and I'm busy tomorrow

[ruru]

oh and frank needs a prod

[ruru]

Day 1 ends in (expired on 2018-09-10 09:40:00)

whatever I'll just post this now.

So it might be time for ceejay to claim but I think he should probably only claim if he's bg

obviously vig shouldn't claim

I estimate that rb/tracker/gc claiming is -ev but I guess feel free to do it if you think you've pr-hunted a vig because if there's a known vig then it is definitely +ev; otherwise, probably don't

[ruru]

actually @ofrhz could we have an extension if frank doesn't show up?

[ruru]

Btw, now that this game is over ... viewtopic.php?f=51&t=76766
This has kinda been in my mind the whole game, but couldn't say much as ongoing.

Skitter was one of my strongest TRs in that game, I even doc protected her because I thought she would be prime NK target ... alas she was scum
scum!skitter a force to be reckoned with, and was literally universally townread by everyone and won because town trusted her enough to hammer test her in MYLO

So I haven't really commented on skitter so much, that said I am kinda townreading skitter this game, but I don't trust her or my reads on her hahahha
Hence my earlier comment about I don't really know how to read her with confidence

This is basically the other post I wanted to make except I'm not townreading her

If my interactions with her have been awkward in this game, not wanting to spew her alignment in the ongoing was why (and she should know that and not scumread me for not engaging her more at the beginning of the game)

I don't feel like she's done anything obviously genuine and her read progression on me is weird

[ruru]

i think i would have just called you obvtown, pocketed you, and shot you at some convenient time as scum tbh

oh right, and I also find this really questionable

I don't find "I would play this game similarly to my last game where I rolled scum against some of the same players here" particularly convincing

if anything scum.skitter probably expects to get lynched this game because of the playerlist and might be more interested in finding early high value mislynches than usual

[ruru]

I was keeping an eye on that game too, albeit for different reasons. There were times when both game threads were open, and skitter would post here and not there. It thus was easy to deduce she was Town here (with me knowing she was scum there bc I was her p).

all three mafia are still alive

she was much more engaged d1 of 732 too

[ruru]

also, eli5 the second point? not sure i follow

Vigging can't generate an inno (if bp were a town role maybe it'd be a different story)

It's already committing to killing someone if they are town and a guilty on a player who everyone agreed should die isn't very useful

Vigging into bp is basically just losing a town-controlled kill; I don't really know how else to explain it

there's probably even a case to be made that for example vigging the third-scummiest could be better than vigging the second-scummiest (with the second-scummiest being tomorrow's lynch) to lower the chances of hitting bp but maybe that's more of a theoretical thing since reads aren't static like that

[ruru]

UNVOTE:

[ruru]

if frank/tw are t/s maybe he lolhammers and we lose two claims

[ruru]

if frank/tw are t/s maybe he lolhammers and we lose two claims

*slow blink*
your experience with my scumgame is pretty skewed by me deciding to meme that one time...

it's mostly colored by being what I would probably do in that situation

[ruru]

Start of page 6, going to sleep

I think you should claim first then

[ruru]

it's interesting that ejjinami + frank both scumread skitter, whose posts tend to naturally get townread by town
probably >rand scum regardless of skitter's alignment?

I do kind of want more ejji posts but we have serious deadline issues if ceejay's slot fills

[ruru]

why is everyone so hard to townread in this game

[ruru]

ejji's posting is otherwise kinda townish though

Whatever

gamma is probably town

VOTE: bujaber

enigma push feels extremely lazy from someone who's played with town.enigma before

one big wall + lots of explaining the wall but not really doing anything else is probably the easiest posting style for scum to fake

I kinda think scum are a bit more likely to be too busy to catch up quickly too; business is a question of priorities

Sky - start was overly jokey in a way that's very in-your-face. Seems like something that only comes from relaxed town. 89 made me laugh. 452 good town list for this point in the game. I hate 595. Big post from Vex about sky is quite convincing.

It still feels weird that she's being so obvscum. TW's entrance seems pretty good though. Coupled with the too scummy to be scum thing I say this is likely to be a townslot.

also this is really bad

[ruru]

What's bad about the bolded? I acknowledge her posting was weird but overall the reasons to townread her outweigh the reasons to scumread her.

As for enigma yes we just finished our first game together as far as I recall and yes he was town and maybe he grabbed some pagetops there but he was not on a personal mission to grab pagetops like he seems to be on here. It felt more casual/situational in that game instead of deliberate.

I don't think she's obvscum by posting, and if she is you should be scumreading her

it almost feels like you might be intentionally trying to leave a weird associative

[ruru]

like if not for the ellitell sky was basically just another low effort but not super scummy slot

[ruru]

it was a hyperbolic AtEish request, I think you know I'm gonna keep spamming

at the same time if everyone's gonna be like OOoooooOOoOo scumducky and ignore any solving I do I'm not really sure what the value of me solving is rofl

Creature gets my alignment right ~most of the time, I can't remember off the top of my head if Gamma can read me or not, I don't think skitter has a great history of correctly townreading me but need to verify. you should be able to read me given our similar quirks I think.

there's like no utility in lynching me d1 when I'm not in sync and this list should be able to sort me d2 lmao

maybe we should just lynch the worst, this post is awful

[ruru]

yeah I'm bored of bujaber wagon already

VOTE: the worst

[ruru]

also I've re-evaluated and skitter is actually town this game for real

[ruru]

... I think

[ruru]

What does the “>rand scum” mean?

And I’m not as confident in the read on skit anymore. I partially misunderstood the 2-nd post I quoted and I didn’t really notice her acting cautious about her tone in the next few pages, which kinda makes me think that it might have been a wrong way to read her after all. I don’t really get why are people TRing her though, but I’ll prob get to it later.

more likely than random

usually reads of this form mean I'm not gut-scumreading something but I think it's "ever so slightly scummy" or that scum would do it more often

also I think skitter is just town by postcount

she had 34 posts as scum day 1 of 732 (which lasted around a week) and 107 posts over all six gamedays and while she wasn't isping day 1 by any means there's just too much quantitative difference here for someone who finds scum stressful

[ruru]

I don't really know how to meta read her aside from what I just posted

[ruru]

This game's awful

How about you interact with other slots?

I feel like this probably doesn't come from scum

[ruru]

you're asking "why not" so it's unlikely he did it to get townread

I don't think most people would townread that post

but scum really enjoy a gamestate where everyone is tilted and not gamesolving

[ruru]

also doesn't gamma have a lynchbaity meta? (I haven't read it, sheeping other people on this)

[ruru]

there he at least got kinda outraged that people were scumreading him despite the effort he was putting in

from skimming his iso it looks like this didn't happen until he was actively being lynched?

if we wagon him here he may or may not towntell but we probably won't have time to say "oh I guess we don't want a claim from gamma afterall"

and he might just get lynched if he's vt even if he towntells

[ruru]

like I don't think now is the correct time for a sorting wagon and I'm not comfortable with just lynching gamma

[ruru]

we really need the other slots to be playing the game around now somebody do something please

[ruru]

do you think hws is viggable? maybe lynch ceejay vig hws

unless you think we have enough time before ceejay replaces that we should be using that time

[ruru]

It's going to be one of those games where day 1 lasts 2 weeks

underestimate...

[ruru]

Just vote yourself

[ruru]

[ruru]

what changed your enigma read?

[ruru]

Enigma is proving really conflicting to read. gutscum headtown, I'm swinging town here too atm

o hey I could see myself lynching Enigma here. ejji is town unless he's really good at scum tbh

[ruru]

I can see the future

it's an hws compromise lynch

[ruru]

probably town, in a very day 1 sense

he makes weird posts as town

[ruru]

I'm scumreading him for these + general lurking

246 974

[ruru]

is tw what mathdino would call a "radioactive wagon for scum"?

I feel like town.tw is a valuable lynch for scum so it's interesting how hard it is to find votes for him

unless it's that

[ruru]

@ofrhz creature and hws need prods

[ruru]

I thought ceejay wasn't that scummy in 722 except for a specific thing that he hasn't done here (but that I wouldn't expect to show up frequently anyway)

elaborate on this?

*shrug*

it's only relevant to my ability to read ceejay in future games because the situation didn't come up in this game

[ruru]

votecount

With 12 alive it takes 7 to vig.

Not_Mafia (6):	Almost50 (1051),	ruru (1052),	Enigma (1055),	BuJaber (1111),	skitter30 (1368),	Gamma Emerald (1370),
ejjinami (1):	Vex Vience (991),
Not voting (5):	HeWhoSwims,	the worst,	Not_Mafia,	ejjinami,	Creature,

[ruru]

Ruru town so far

Also I'm 30% sure she's only √7 of a ¾ math major but don't sheep me on this

this game feels like a loss.

gamestate dissonance here actually might be scum indicative. I've half assed my read on ruru I think

I might be onto nothing. I'll think about it more.
ruru's take on sky early on was a bit eh, progression on my slot is conFUSIng and telling me to self-vote is probably a little suboptimal :s

I agree with vex a50 and creature obv, ruru and enigma I'm just like..... not finding reasons to townread..... they're both kinda just ok

this is a bit strange because most of my posts had already been made after you gave an initial townread on me 2 days after replace-in

scumreading 940 is one thing but if my iso "lacked town", there was no mention of it before

also, telling you to self-vote was a reaction test and your response wasn't very towny

why is my progression on your slot confusing?

[ruru]

this game feels like a loss.

gamestate dissonance here actually might be scum indicative. I've half assed my read on ruru I think

oh and also not being content with a mediocre d1 poe in a game that randed a hilariously scumsided setup where one of our roles is known to be negative utility and when I just watched town hammertest scum

in 3:1

in a game that I got n1ed in is hardly scum-indicative and you should know this because you modded that game.

also I'm reminded of 728 where you expressed similar sentiment that "oh the gamestate is fine" (which is implied here if you think I was out of sync with the gamestate) when you were actively being scumread by like half the list

[ruru]

I mean in fairness the gamestate was fine there. more than fine actually

But if you were town in that game it wouldn't have been fine for you, that's what I'm trying to say

here you're again - by calling my read of the gamestate as a losing gamestate out-of-sync - implying "everything is fine"

meanwhile you're the leading wagon and I'm one of the people pushing things and you're not townreading me but you think the gamestate is fine? and it's just kind of incongruous with what you should be feeling as town I think

[ruru]

like if you think the gamestate is losing, but you're too low energy to care, then you still shouldn't be scumreading me for having thought the gamestate was losing

[ruru]

NM what are your reads?

[ruru]

@tw

why is my progression on your slot confusing?

[ruru]

hws isn't here...

[ruru]

also the strength of my hws scumread is less than the strength of your ceejay scumread so probably we should just lynch nm

[ruru]

I mean there's no way we're just lynching an afk slot when we can replace it with someone who will produce more readable content

[ruru]

so why are we not just lynching tw

[ruru]

tw has produced content and some of it is quite scummy
skygazer played her scum meta and ellitold
the best defense of the slot is "too scummy to be scum" and you're seriously considering lynching a nullscum with 20 posts when we might be able to talk to his replacement tomorrow?

[ruru]

like, I am 100% willing to compromise lynch hws if he posts again but he looks like he's getting force replaced and I would like to talk to his replacement

[ruru]

that's personal bias and has nothing to do with winning the game

[ruru]

like, I am 100% willing to compromise lynch hws if he posts again but he looks like he's getting force replaced and I would like to talk to his replacement

... actually this isn't really true either

I probably won't accept any other lynch without a plausible explanation for 1444

[ruru]

like it actually looks exactly like one of his scumtells in 728 (@a50 you modded that, don't you agree?)

[ruru]

I mean, lots of reasons?

- you could be scum; my sr on tw-slot is stronger than my tr on you
- if it's true that he pr-reads you maybe he would rather just shoot you and find a vt to lynch
- so that you're pocketed and ask why he would defend you as scum
- he could be assuming cj+hws compromise would happen

since I'm referring to 728, also on d1 of that game a scum who was widely scumread wked his main competition

[ruru]

I've played two completed games with HWS and the only one I was shitposting in I was scum so I'm not sure where the "this feels like usual skygazer" comes from.

[ruru]

@tw

why is my progression on your slot confusing?

probably need a Fancy Post for this, we can go into it later or whatever

fancy post when?

[ruru]

v/la is scummy xd

[ruru]

not before I'm lynched
I'm actually v/la over the weekend but won't qnnounce it because you fucks are mislynching me anyway

Just look for who should have known better and adjust reads accordingly lol

like, in the time you took to write "not towncasing skygazer" and "skitter knows she's wrong lol" you could have put a little bit of effort into answering my questions and the way you're dodging them makes me think you don't want to effortpost because solving the game isn't part of your wincon

[ruru]

and in the event you flip town, who should have known better?

[ruru]

VOTE: Not_Mafia
HURT: the worst

[ruru]

what's the strength of your tr on a50 right now?

[ruru]

I'm basically sheeping him on nm-slot and now I'm sheeping him on not lynching tw so I want to make sure it's still strong

[ruru]

well, there's actually something tw did that makes me think he might be town as well

[ruru]

I need to read the fake apathy duckling meta