[Game Over] Newbie 1900 - Robocalypse

[Ariane]

Auro (L-2)

: volxen, Flavor Leaf, Lamees

Flavor Leaf (L-3)

: Ariane, Auro

Ariane (L-4)

: YurikoJasmine

YurikoJasmine (L-4)

: Not_Mafia

snowbeast, lionheart1492

Not liking volx, FL, or snowbeast, I reckon there's scum there somewhere

Will give more detailed reasons later (at work rn), but they all seem to be playing to/from mechanics rather than reads, which seems like an easy way to explain a misslichen if they're on it /advocate for it

dunno if that makes sense, I'll be on later this evening

[Ariane]

*mislynch

[Auro]

Snowbeast acknowledged he had the setup wrong and would vote shortly. I believe that explanation.

[lionheart1492]

Volxen's opinion on flavor leaf is 10/10 quality thinking. I would say that there's no definitive read to get from his nm vote because even in a world where they're scumbros he could just be bussing to distance himself (no one's gonna lynch the guy who led a wagon on scum D1!).

Ariane what do you feel about lamees? Are you on the "this is how she plays as town" train or nah?

[Ariane]

The but I'm not talking about just talking mechanics but basing reads on them

Like FL's recent stuff is just weird, like he was townreading you and me but then is like 'well one of you is scum cos nobody else has voted therefore', and I dunno since it's not based on play he's got an easy explanation if it's a mislynch

not so obvious with snow, but see for example

So back from my overnight hiking and have reread this thread twice.
As my first game I and not knowing any of you from a bar of soap I cannot judge your character, only thing I am looking for is two or three players moving in the same direction as the mafia need only two of us to believe them to get a lynch.

he can't judge character so he'll look for voting patterns rather than play. same sitch

Pedit: dunno, don't have a solid read on her, I'll try to get one later tonight

[Ariane]

*"true but", sorry, on mobile

[Auro]

I don't think it's scummy for him to say that, considering newbie and first game and everything. I'm willing to give him a chance.

@Snowbeast, can you make your best attempt at reading into everyone's play, and form a reads list?

[volxen]

I've already explained why I haven't voted Lamees - She often makes scummy posts and gives off those vibes, but it's not AI enough to actually lynch her.
I'd rather have a lot more content from her to dig in to her motivations and establish whether it's more likely to come from scum!Lamees than scummyTown!Lamees.
I was engaging with her and pointing out how her behaviour is anti-town/scummy, to see whether she changes her mind -- and if so, how.

I wasn't quite reading Flavor either way, but:
1. The case Ariane made on him made sense
2. I was TRing Ariane

Are these not sufficient to place my vote?

But going by the posts you made up to the point where you voted for Flavor Leaf, you listed something that you found scummy from Lamees (her potentially trying to push an easy mislynch against Not_Mafia), whereas you never mentioned anything scummy with respect to Flavor Leaf up to that point. You make a point to call Lamees out on it, and in the same very post sheep one of your townreads and vote for Flavor Leaf.

Yes, Lamees does anti-town things as town, but that shouldn't preclude you from voting for her to see how she responds to the pressure. After all, one of the reasons you claimed to have voted for me at the beginning of the day was to see how I would react, before you had any read on me at all. You identify something that she has done that you find to be scummy, but you aren't sure if this is coming from town!Lamees or scum!Lamees. Wouldn't it then make sense to vote for her and pressure her and see how she reacts, to help you come to the conclusion on whether her push against Not_Mafia is coming from town!Lamees or scum!Lamees? And it's not like you couldn't later change your vote to someone else if Lamees convinced you that she was town.

Why call her out on something you find to be scummy, only to not follow up with a vote to help you get a better read of her slot? What's the point of calling it out only to follow it by saying "Well I don't know, Lamees does this kind of stuff as both alignments..."? The point is that you need to determine whether this is more

likely

to come town!Lamees or scum!Lamees, and voting for her and pressuring her would arguably increase your chances of accomplishing that goal.

And to answer your question, if you are getting clear scum vibes from someone, I don't think it makes sense to sheep one of your townreads in favor of voting for someone else. Especially since, as you said yourself, you weren't even scumreading Flavor Leaf on your own at the time that you voted for him.

[Auro]

@Volxen:

I repeat - Pressure on Lamees isn't useful, and she flails as either alignment. It would only add to the entropy behind her posts, and make it even more difficult to sort.
I still assert that optimum Lamees-reading strategy is to observe her activity *without* pressure over a longer duration.
Acting scummy doesn't imply scummy if acting scummy is playstyle.

Agree?

[Auro]

I believe that pressured Volxen's reactions are pretty useful, in comparison.

[Auro]

What's the point of calling it out only to follow it by saying "Well I don't know, Lamees does this kind of stuff as both alignments..."?

To see whether she agrees with me and changes her direction, and if she does, where to.
I would have actively defended her if she got wagoned on the basis of her posts at that point.
If you're not getting what I'm trying to say, I can elaborate in detail.

[lionheart1492]

Reading ISOs isn't going great because I'm p tired rn.
I'm honestly of the opinion that snowbeast might be scum who gave a fake townslip. The way he posts makes it seem like he's a smart guy who's just new to mafia and not sure what he's doing. Could totally see a world where he's scum who has at least some idea of what he's doing and is just trying to coast on being a newbie. It's not a strong read but reading his iso I could totally see it.

[volxen]

Not liking volx, FL, or snowbeast, I reckon there's scum there somewhere

Will give more detailed reasons later (at work rn),

but they all seem to be playing to/from mechanics rather than reads

, which seems like an easy way to explain a misslichen if they're on it /advocate for it

dunno if that makes sense, I'll be on later this evening

I literally have one post on mechanics/setup (post 236), which I made because Auro was talking about relying on an investigative role to sort Not_Mafia's slot.

Based on the content in the game so far, no one except for Lion is even remotely close to being obvious town, so getting townreads beyond Lion is not going to be an easy task. Perhaps that will change between now and the deadline, but my focus between now and the end of day one is really going to be on determining who I think is the most likely to be scum.

Part of that may be playstyle, as I have always had an easier time explaining scumreads versus townreads, and I generally just directly scumhunt as opposed to finding scum through townhunting + POE.

[Auro]

@Lionheart: I'd say that you should employ Occam's razor and evaluate on what's more likely.

Is it more likely that Snowbeast is a smart guy who knows what he's doing, and made a deliberate townslip? Or that he's a newbie who misread the setup and thought mechanics would help a great deal? I definitely think the latter is much likelier.

[volxen]

I believe that pressured Volxen's reactions are pretty useful, in comparison.

What did you learn about my slot from the wagon that you started against me?

[Auro]

What did you learn about my slot from the wagon that you started against me?

Didn't like your reactions much. Your wallposts seemed to contain a lot of fluff on wagon analysis/detailed refutations to single statements of mine, and you seemed more interested in collecting thoughts instead of direct engagement.

You did wall-post and jump into wagon analytics as town the previous game as well, but it feels different in this game - a bit more like you're trying to imitate that meta, and I don't feel your engagement so far has been completely honest.

Do you agree with my reasons for not pressuring Lamees?

[Auro]

Also, let me flip this on you, since you seem to be intent on sorting out my slot.

1. You asked me about FL's sheep, and I answered.
2. You asked me about my thoughts on Lion's case, and I responded saying that I think that may affect interactions.
3. You disagreed that I would voice my thoughts on a case the same regardless of alignment, and I explained that it was *my* belief, and it's not as relevant anyway WRT the content I'm producing overall.
4. You thought I was discarding Not_Mafia as a lynch altogether and only relying on investigatives; I clarified that suggesting that investigatives target him doesn't imply he's never a lynch option.
5. You asked me why I pointed out scummy Lamees plays but refused to vote for her, and I justified that.
6. You asked why I'm not trying to pressure Lamees, and I explained why.

Your vote's still on me, so I get a feeling you're either refusing to revise your stance on my slot, OR that you think my responses are insufficient. If it's the latter, feel free to engage me further on the relevant point(s).

[Lamees]

I don't think Lamees' reactions under *pressure* are useful -- go check out D2 of Newbie 1893, the posts leading up to her lynch.
IMO it's a better strategy to let her post more, prod her and get her to change track, and then search for motivation/agenda overall.
I *think* town!Lamees generally votes out of OMGUS-y reasons more and scum!Lamees decides on an agenda and pushes based on that (from a very loose skim of meta).

I reread it. Looks like I just started the day with trying to find scum. I changed my vote a few times and all of a sudden it's "omg changed votes, flailing lets lynch". Ues that was the type of town pool I was in that day. Very disappoonting. I do understand it's a newbie game and I've seen worse reasons being pushed to lynch someone in a recent newbie game, but scum was pushing my lynch too. Scum can push any lynch with any made up reason. What made it easier for scum to lynch was a town player lock voted me since day 1. Yet I was the "anti town" one lol.

[Lamees]

Will post a read list shortly

[Auro]

Yes. Under pressure, you seemed to vote for a bunch of people for all sorts of reasons. You *were* flailing IMO, just that it was town flailing and not scum.
Town did have reasons apart from the flail to vote for you, based on your D1 hammers IIRC.
I didn't even have to push your lynch all that much then. Which is why I've stated explicitly in this game that it's not scum indicative for you -- I don't want the same situation to repeat and scum to enjoy what they might see as an 'easy mislynch' again.

A few townpoints to you for introspectively reading up that game again.

[Auro]

Sure -- pick out a couple of instances of said content, and tell me specifically where you find my reasoning wrong.

Also, you've not responded to this -- So I take it that you are saying I was 'flailing' with well-reasoned, logically valid counter-arguments?

[snowbeast]

Reading ISOs isn't going great
I'm honestly of the opinion that snowbeast might be scum who gave a fake townslip. The way he posts makes it seem like he's a smart guy who's just new to mafia and not sure what he's doing. Could totally see a world where he's scum who has at least some idea of what he's doing and is just trying to coast on being a newbie. It's not a strong read but reading his iso I could totally see it.

Very fair observation as my posts prior to last night where very vague or pointless until I got prodded.
As for my defense the accusation was based on my character and I'm not about to change it purely due to the fact I could be seen as scum. Only a lynch will tell.

Just for clarity, I am not in law enforcement, but I have volunteered for a while helping authorities in anti poaching, stock theft and farm attacks.
I also run the communications for a private response team as and when the need arises.

WRT the question of providing a read I must admit I am not overly excited at the prospect of doing so
1. If I hit the nail on the head I am now a target for the Mafia.
2. If I screw up I will have a case against me for providing incorrect information and it could make me look like a scum playing the town

I have two scenarios in my head - Lion looked super scummy in the beginning, but has redeemed himself
for some reason I trust Volxen - but could be a very good play. Volx provides a good read on the game in post 51.

purely due to activity around their voting and then seemingly hiding in the background and only popping up in post 229 claiming we must lynch a player who asked to be lynched and with it possible getting an easy D1 townie Lynch (assumption) and capatalising on it with a night kill. We wake up two down. Then in the same post he for some reason defends Auro??? VOTE: not_mafia

[Lamees]

Ariane - Town lean, I could be wrong as I haven't yet seen scum ariane.

lionheart1492 - Town lean, trying to find scum, or at least seems to be doing so. No reason to doubt this early.

snowbeast - Town lean, I said before I won't take the "3 mafia" post as a town slip. But the general posting and play seems townie to me.

Auro - Scum lean, seems to be in hard defense mode, most of his recent posts have been defensive and usually ends up with him trying to hi-light agreement to his cases or repeat questions and answers until some sort of stalemate wifom is achieved

volxen (SE) - Null, I can see his posting coming from either alignment.

YurikoJasmine (SE) - Null, not much to go on

Not_Mafia (SE) - obvious scum, but throwing the game seems to be acceptable this round so we can leave him alive.

Flavor Leaf (IC) - null, hard to read FL here, he seems different from the previous games I've played with him but not exactly clear scum different.

[Lamees]

Reading snowbeast's ISO I am gonna go with that was a legit town slip. Post 126 is a softer version of the town slip. Confirmed town for now.

[snowbeast]

Ariane - Town lean, I could be wrong as I haven't yet seen scum ariane.

lionheart1492 - Town lean, trying to find scum, or at least seems to be doing so. No reason to doubt this early.

snowbeast - Town lean, I said before I won't take the "3 mafia" post as a town slip. But the general posting and play seems townie to me.

Auro - Scum lean, seems to be in hard defense mode, most of his recent posts have been defensive and usually ends up with him trying to hi-light agreement to his cases or repeat questions and answers until some sort of stalemate wifom is achieved

volxen (SE) - Null, I can see his posting coming from either alignment.

YurikoJasmine (SE) - Null, not much to go on

Not_Mafia (SE) - obvious scum, but throwing the game seems to be acceptable this round so we can leave him alive.

Flavor Leaf (IC) - null, hard to read FL here, he seems different from the previous games I've played with him but not exactly clear scum different.

I think we are pretty much on the same page here.