Open 748: Jungle Republic - Over!

Auro · Post Post #575 (ISO) » Wed Feb 20, 2019 1:52 am

It's worth taking the 1/3 chance of hitting WW.
Let's talk reads.
Rebut my case on McQueen.

brassherald · Post Post #576 (ISO) » Wed Feb 20, 2019 1:55 am

Does a WW really push a kill on someone scum reading them? I feel like that's just obvious. Personally, I'd rather take on the 1v1 than making it that obvious.

Then again I don't know McQueen as a player. If he were Steve McQueen, he'd be a man's man, though.

Auro · Post Post #577 (ISO) » Wed Feb 20, 2019 1:59 am

Umm, the best NK candidates are those who are townread, and are on the right track. You personally might do that but scum almost always just kill the person most likely to go after them. There's another reason I think why GL was NK'd (which leads me to suspect another player as wolf but I'll case that after McQueen).

Anyway, that's the weakest of my reasons and just supporting my main case. Do you agree with the bulk of my numbered case?

brassherald · Post Post #578 (ISO) » Wed Feb 20, 2019 2:00 am

Yes, I'd agree with the rest, but I feel NK analysis is pretty important, personally.

Auro · Post Post #579 (ISO) » Wed Feb 20, 2019 2:05 am

GuiltyLion was NK'd because of a weighted combination of these reasons:

1. He was one of the most competent players on the playerlist
2. Pretty townread; or if not was in the process of it, as he was actively solving the game
3. Had generally correct reads.
4. (Will list this next game day)

It's probable in this case that (1) and (2) hold a lot more weight which is why it's not a *main* reason I'm pushing McQueen.

brassherald · Post Post #580 (ISO) » Wed Feb 20, 2019 2:07 am

I'd also say that chances are WWs are probably people not fully familiar with GL, in general. I know he was a strong town voice yesterday, but, in multiball, you can probably get someone that proficient at scum lynched based on pure paranoia.

Dude is absurdly good at scum and I hate it. (Love you, GL)

Auro · Post Post #581 (ISO) » Wed Feb 20, 2019 2:09 am

That would apply if people were > average townread; in this game there are a LOT of scummy slots. For scum it's worth killing a competent strong voice.

Auro · Post Post #582 (ISO) » Wed Feb 20, 2019 2:09 am

Besides, if you're agreeing with my case on McQueen, vote there please.

brassherald · Post Post #583 (ISO) » Wed Feb 20, 2019 2:11 am

In post 582, Auro wrote:Besides, if you're agreeing with my case on McQueen, vote there please.

VOTE: McQueen

Sure.

By the way, I think the town block is Auro, A50, BuJaber and one other slot to be named later.

brassherald · Post Post #584 (ISO) » Wed Feb 20, 2019 2:12 am

Obviously, I'm town in my own town block.

brassherald · Post Post #585 (ISO) » Wed Feb 20, 2019 2:16 am

I think town hunting may be the strat here, because I sure as hell do not know how to figure out if the scums are mafia or WW, and associatives are out the window until one of them flips.

brassherald · Post Post #586 (ISO) » Wed Feb 20, 2019 2:18 am

In post 585, brassherald wrote:I think town hunting may be the strat here, because I sure as hell do not know how to figure out if the scums are mafia or WW, and associatives are out the window until one of them flips.

Unless we get a Boggart and then set it on everyone and see which person makes it turn into the moon. For me, it would be like a giant lobster. Lobsters are terrifying.

Vedith · Post Post #587 (ISO) » Wed Feb 20, 2019 2:24 am

In post 583, brassherald wrote:
In post 582, Auro wrote:Besides, if you're agreeing with my case on McQueen, vote there please.
VOTE: McQueen

Sure.

By the way, I think the town block is Auro, A50, BuJaber and one other slot to be named later.

I really like this post. Most likely town too.

VOTE: McQueen

Lets do this!

Bambi Jay · Post Post #588 (ISO) » Wed Feb 20, 2019 3:07 am

VOTE: McQueen

The Mafia agrees with this plan.

Auro · Post Post #589 (ISO) » Wed Feb 20, 2019 3:32 am

He's at L-1 I think and I don't want a quickhammer there; I'll unvote for now.

I'm up for posting reads lists in the A50-proposed fashion. If everyone agrees to do that, I'll start.

Auro · Post Post #590 (ISO) » Wed Feb 20, 2019 3:33 am

UNVOTE:

Auro · Post Post #591 (ISO) » Wed Feb 20, 2019 3:44 am

Town
{Vedith}
{Hydra, BuJaber}
{Bambi, BrassHerald}
{A50, Egix}
{RosterFoster}
{McQueen}
Scum

brassherald · Post Post #592 (ISO) » Wed Feb 20, 2019 3:46 am

In post 591, Auro wrote:Town
{Vedith}
{Hydra, BuJaber}
{Bambi, BrassHerald}
{A50, Egix}
{RosterFoster}
{McQueen}
Scum

Yeah, I'm not doing this.

I believe someone will remember me bitching about these in the past, and my refusal to make one still stands.

Auro · Post Post #593 (ISO) » Wed Feb 20, 2019 3:49 am

The rationale is for seer to effectively crumb results without giving away who the seer is, in case seer is NK'd.

brassherald · Post Post #594 (ISO) » Wed Feb 20, 2019 3:53 am

Let's just put this out here, if I wasn't voting McQueen right now, I'd be all in on Egix again.

Auro · Post Post #595 (ISO) » Wed Feb 20, 2019 4:07 am

Eh, changed my mind again actually, screw it.

VOTE: McQueen

Egix96 · Post Post #596 (ISO) » Wed Feb 20, 2019 4:10 am

I thought we were no-lynching today? What did Mcqueen do?

Almost50 · Post Post #597 (ISO) » Wed Feb 20, 2019 4:13 am

@Auro: Funny that you'd say GL was shot for his reads and then decide you want to lynch mcqueen when GL's last post was:

In post 433, GuiltyLion wrote:wolves I say take a shot in {brassherald/foster/bambi} if they're not on your team and you're trying to thin down Mafia

brassherald · Post Post #598 (ISO) » Wed Feb 20, 2019 4:15 am

In post 597, Almost50 wrote:@Auro: Funny that you'd say GL was shot for his reads and then decide you want to lynch mcqueen when GL's last post was:

In post 433, GuiltyLion wrote:wolves I say take a shot in {brassherald/foster/bambi} if they're not on your team and you're trying to thin down Mafia

But, this is his guess for a mafia team. McQueen not being on the list helps the case, buddaroo!

Almost50 · Post Post #599 (ISO) » Wed Feb 20, 2019 4:18 am

A;sp. funny that you've claimed Mafia

at least four times now

and nobody commented on it. The last was when you said ynching wolves is a 1/3 chance when (from a town PoV) it should be 2/9 (excluding your own slot). From a Mafia PoV though it is 2/7 indeed (close enough) and if you have identified the Seer

it is indeed

2/6 = 1/3