Open 748: Jungle Republic - Over!

[BuJaber]

Auro all I can say is fine with me
But what do you think of egix independently from S-R?

[BuJaber]

I don't see A50 as WW though, not when he pushed no lynch.. if you're town he's mafia

[BuJaber]

Look how much power we have over the NK right now, never would have happened if we didn't no lynch. That move benefited mafia. It's just we got lucky the seer checked bambi and also happened to be the person everyone was gonna mislynch

[Almost50]

The strongest reason for him not being Mafia is the Speedwagon on him last game day - which, as I recall, had Brass, Vedith and Me hopping on it. Why would Maf!Jay bus his partner in that situation? And from your perspective, A50, why would BOTH other mafia bus him, especially with one Mafia outed?

@A50

Mate, if a scum team member is lurking this much they become dead weight and will draw much attention to their partners if they do not hard bus them already. It's as simple as that. The next time you play scum try to be a lurksack and see how your team treats you.

[Almost50]

Funny how the overwhelming support for no lynch is now sitting quietly not knowing what to do.

That is because the whole damn point was relying on WWs being smart and going for the obvious correct play which was to shoot MAFIA. They decided to take a chance and try to shoot the Seer, and it backfired on them AND on us.

[Auro]

Auro all I can say is fine with me
But what do you think of egix independently from S-R?

Mafia.
Everyone in my PoE has to be either Wolf or Mafia, in isolation from SR's slot I'm not sure if I would've read him strongly as either faction - but looking at how SR's probwolf I'll bucket Egix to mafia

[Auro]

I don't see A50 as WW though, not when he pushed no lynch.. if you're town he's mafia

Observe when he strongly pushed a No Lynch - when I launched an attack on McQueen, and it rapidly grew to 4 votes.

You don't think scum!A50 would think "Pushing a No-Lynch is easier than trying to form another wagon"?

[Auro]

Mate, if a scum team member is lurking this much they become dead weight and will draw much attention to their partners if they do not hard bus them already. It's as simple as that. The next time you play scum try to be a lurksack and see how your team treats you.

Lol, no, they wouldn't bus when No Lynch is a viable alternative, and in multiball where a Lynch on a partner gives you less towncred than in a single-ball game.

[Auro]

You understand now why I was saying we need to hit mafia when seer was still unknown?

Hmm. I'll give this careful thought later, but ATM I'm not too focused in sorting your slot versus Roster.

[Almost50]

wouldn't you assume he'd more likely be pounced on if he was town, Wolves going for the easy mislynch etc?

Let me try to answer this (I know it wasn't directed at me, but it's relevant to what you were asking me).

But first, let me give you a piece of advice: When you're town (and if you are here) try to think what scum you would do before you speak. Trust me. It helps a lot.

Now, as for WWs going fo a Town lynch.. they're clearly hunting for the Seer, so it could be that they were pushing Mqueen to get a claim, but not for the lynch. If I was a WW I'd very much want to lynch MAFIA today, because I would still be hunting the Seer at night. If we lynch Town today the WWs cannot afford to not shoot Mafia tonight.

So, lynching town is even worse for the WWs than sacrificing one of their own today. They

must

lynch Mafia today.

Mafia -right now- do NOT want the Seer dead, or even outed. The Seer is no threat to them, and helps them catch WWs, so MAFIA will try to lynch WWs as a first priority, but can afford to lynch a townie provided they're not the Seer.

We need to lynch a WW ourselves. This may coincide withe the Mafia objective for the day, but it forces the WWs to hunt for other Mafia too, so we woudl be siding by Mafia by day and rooting for the WWs at night.

[scum reading]

Gut says no, but I'm re-evaluating.

Wolf!A50 would probably favor a lynch to hit seer here, because the seer would be his biggest theat; so my paranoia there has gone down a little bit.

Ok, started reading from 300, I reached 700, this is the only thing that spells suspicious to me. For people that forgot, in this context, Auro was the only one advocating for a lynch. This is what he then says.

[Auro]

Umm. I don't think you read my post properly.
The context was the McQueen wagon *last* game day. Yeah wolves would more readily pounce on him to get a claim; that he's not pushed then indicates scum, not more likely town.

[Auro]

Gut says no, but I'm re-evaluating.

Wolf!A50 would probably favor a lynch to hit seer here, because the seer would be his biggest theat; so my paranoia there has gone down a little bit.

Ok, started reading from 300, I reached 700, this is the only thing that spells suspicious to me. For people that forgot, in this context, Auro was the only one advocating for a lynch. This is what he then says.

Yeah, I didn't take into account that his push for no Lynch came after my aggressive push on McQueen.

[Auro]

Mate, if a scum team member is lurking this much they become dead weight and will draw much attention to their partners if they do not hard bus them already

Lol, so you seriously believe I'm bussing my partner McQueen today because... He's dead weight?

[BuJaber]

Funny how the overwhelming support for no lynch is now sitting quietly not knowing what to do.

That is because the whole damn point was relying on WWs being smart and going for the obvious correct play which was to shoot MAFIA. They decided to take a chance and try to shoot the Seer, and it backfired on them AND on us.

Despite this you and others still wanted to rely on the wolves' reads to shoot mafia tonight which before the seer claim was a very risky move.

Though for the record I still don't agree. No lynch left the ratios as is, with town still a dangerous size and the seer still alive. The fact you're surprised they went for the seer is shocking.

I don't see A50 as WW though, not when he pushed no lynch.. if you're town he's mafia

Observe when he strongly pushed a No Lynch - when I launched an attack on McQueen, and it rapidly grew to 4 votes.

You don't think scum!A50 would think "Pushing a No-Lynch is easier than trying to form another wagon"?

I guess that makes sense IF you assume S-R is his partner and that A50 wouldn't bus.

I don't know exactly how he differentiates his play between his AP account and his main, but he's encouraged his teammates to bus him on day 1 at least once. If he were partnered with a lurker he'd bus him. Regardless of his alignment I'm quite certain he's telling the truth about that.

[Almost50]

also everyone else must comment on my claim
do not just silently change your vote

What is there to comment on? You did exactly what I said the Seer would have done regarding Bambi. I don't care why you checked brass because that was never discussed and you have your own reads. I agree Bambi is Mafia and brass is likely Town.

[scum reading]

@Jay: Why would no Lynch be beneficial for scum here when lynching 1. Gets rid of a townie and 2. Increases chance of a seer NK?

Again, you were earlier advocating for a no-lynch.

And welcome to this segment of the thread where a theory enthusiast (if that’s even a thing) will present some controversial stuff:

Has anyone considered Auro could be ww? I mean, from what I get, ww obviously know who they are. Now, if I was pushed by Bambi, then obviously this wouldn’t be a bus, like Auro mentioned. Therefore, I must be town (if we’re getting into my scenario for a bit). On that no-lynch day, Auro was advocating for a lynch and taking risks, even though he was presented with statistics, he still thought lynching would be a good idea. A werewolf mentality would be to lynch at that point, as Auro stated, which is exactly what he did, and then 47 posts later he hammers the no-lynch to look town. The no-lynch wagon was gaining momentum, it was obviously a town move and Auro must’ve been really cautious with this. Now, in order for me to be more convincing, I’d have to look at the vote count and deduce whether it would’ve been beneficial for ww to vote a town or a mafia off, but I just think Auro tried really hard to look like town and was afraid he would get spotted as a werewolf, hence why he hammered the no-lynch. No clue on second werewolf, I’ll let you guys talk about this until I finish reading.

[scum reading]

I’m here, what do you mean, I’m catching up, I’ll present my overall townreads and scummies, bear with me

[Auro]

I guess that makes sense IF you assume S-R is his partner and that A50 wouldn't bus.

In this setup bussing would've cost him the game. 3 Mafia alive, only two Wolves, one gone would push to 5-3-1 if he bussed McQueen.

Why would he bus?

[scum reading]

mcqueen (might be Mafia)

I'll not really fight an Egix lynch since he has > rand scum equity and all his votes seem to be on town (assuming brass is also town)

But I want a McQueen lynch today, the case on him seems stronger.

Potential werewolf buddy here. Still reading. I’m just taking notes as I go along.

[brassherald]

That only works if A50 is WW, not mafia. What solid proof do we have of that?

[Auro]

Expected SR to start calling me wolf.

For most part of my push for a lynch I never took into account the seer, which should be obvious if you read my posts and then look at my re-evaluation when presented with that info. Even then, a potential seer Lynch is only a marginal benefit to no lynching - even if I hit town with my aggressive push, I'd be under the radar for it anyway.

[Auro]

That only works if A50 is WW, not mafia. What solid proof do we have of that?

A50 is a likely partner I said, I'm not 100%
We can work out who the partner is once we get the McQueen flip.

[Auro]

That only works if A50 is WW, not mafia. What solid proof do we have of that?

Besides, I presented strong evidence of McQueen being Wolf over Egix (wagons) which BuJ agrees with: what about that?

[Egix96]

hi we’re seer

brass and bmabi aren’t wolf

also everyone else must comment on my claim
do not just silently change your vote

No CC from me.