Mini Normal 2071 (Game Over!)

[Detective Pikachu]

What's funny is I feel like I had a very similar reaction to bob saying he thought it was Exilon at 5 way, where I said it was spicy and then just thought about it for a bit without really saying much, and then later talked to exilon. But somehow when you do it with gamble it seems scummy to me. I feel like maybe you would ask him about that read given you in that scenario are not an IC in 5-way, but someone talking to someone who just gave an against-the-grain read relatively early in the game. Like, "why skitter?" maybe?

[Egix96]

@1392
That was just me making a joke about 1378 looking like a scumslip
I honestly had no idea it was actually a mason soft

[Detective Pikachu]

i think ausuka is town

I def don't want to lynch outside those 4 players today

and your excilon case got me to rethink. you're right about iioa, and there were also a couple turns of phrase somewhere in the walls of text that pinged me

skim through hrg again for me? and don't forget the predecessor. I think that's our best shot today tbh

VOTE: hrg

i've skimmed hrg's and cby's isos, and i kinda think the slot is town tbh

not really feeling a vote there rn

help me see it?

Conversely, if you're going to get skitter to townread you, bussing someone she townreads and then getting her to talk you out of it is like, basically the way to manipulate her.

I do wonder about the town thought process behind "help me see it?"

Like in this moment you're getting town to towncase your scumbuddy while distancing. (if you're scum)

I get what you mean why this would be 'a good performance' but that doesn't mean it *can't* come from scum.

[u r a person 2]

Bob is town.

Yeah Bob is town here.

i think bob is town

Whatever you three are seeing, I'm not seeing it...

I don't understand why undercutting a consensus town read is a townie move? Bob was not a slot where it was difficult to argue against a town read by that point in the game. And he was a slot that scum would have liked to have open for a mislynch, if they could have managed it.

[u r a person 2]

Town AGAIN? Really? Sigh...

VOTE: Ausuka

No naked votes allowed reeeeeeeee

This is a pretty good scum opening but it still shows the hallmarks of uncomfortable scum. He tries to make a joke with both the "Town AGAIN? Really? Sigh..." and the "No naked votes allowed reeeeeeeee" but the first part comes across as awkward and the reasoning is actual reasoning for a vote, cloaked as a joke, rather than pure nonsense.

I think this is actually exactly the type of opening you should expect from solid players who have been around for a hot minute.

[u r a person 2]

@Urap, what exactly do you see as the scum motivation in writing 1063?

I think he's taking a stance (null or worse on bob) that isn't going to get him heat or really change the conversation significantly. And maybe it plants a seed of doubt in people's minds about bob in the best of circumstances.

I think most of the iso is the same motivations: Do as little as possible, stay out of the limelight, make just enough reads to never be the lynch. I haven't looked back but I'm sure he doesn't keep pushing that town read, or really engage on it. It's scum blasé.

[u r a person 2]

I do wonder about the town thought process behind "help me see it?"

it was a two-banger, if I remember correctly.

1) I'm still trying to sort skitter at this point. I'm sure I was calling her town in the thread, but I'm pretty sure by this point paranoia had started sinking in a little bit. So I was asking for more than just "I think they are town" in order to hear her response and help sort her.

2) skitter had great town!equity, regardless of point 1, and she's a great player. So if she was confident on a town read, I literally wanted her to help me see it, and maybe start building a solid town bloc

that was the motivation

[tris]

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VC 5.01

Egix96 (1):

u r a person 2 2284

u r a person 2 (1):

Egix96 2319

Not Voting:

Detective Pikachu

With 3 alive it takes 2 to lynch.

Deadline:

(expired on 2019-06-18 15:00:00)

[Detective Pikachu]

i think ausuka is town

I def don't want to lynch outside those 4 players today

and your excilon case got me to rethink. you're right about iioa, and there were also a couple turns of phrase somewhere in the walls of text that pinged me

skim through hrg again for me? and don't forget the predecessor. I think that's our best shot today tbh

VOTE: hrg

ooooh it is ausuka scum, huh

VOTE: ausuka

I dunno how i missed the over-explaining

but this would also make a shit ton of sense for how I'm interpreting this gamestate rn

This turnaround happened waaaaaaay too quickly
Obvious case of bussing

--

That seems like a good place to take a break for today

Were you gonna continue? Cause my deadline kinda passed.

Maybe we should proceed immediately to the dance off phase instead?

[Detective Pikachu]

find it because I was, what, power wolfing day 1 through skitter and inferno pushing super hard on me? I wish I could manage that

J/w but why do you think you're incapable of powerwolfing through scumreads d1?

[Detective Pikachu]

2323 reads kinda weird for someone in a mechanical 1v1 talking to confscum in lylo

[Detective Pikachu]

Hey, do you guys think

rui rui would be more likely to check into this thread prior to the deadline as town or as scum? Scum, yeah?

And even if you don't think it's alignment indicative,

I think we can all agree that it's pretty anti-town

to not be around much at all in the last few days before the deadline while being wagoned?

This is clearly the better choice for today, and

I'm disappointed with those of you who did not see that.

Manipulative language central.

dark green

= conf!town

light green

= town read

red

= probably scum

Please let me know if I got your alignment wrong. Thanks!

Sashaddin (5)

:

u r a person 2 159

,

Ausuka 162

,

bob3141 180

,

Exilon 360

,

Garmr 456

u r a person 2 (4)

:

Inferno390 79

,

skitter30 398

,

RuiRui 484

,

Sashaddin 501

RuiRui (2)

:

ChannelDelibird 174

,

Egix96 233

Exilon (1)

:

High Risk Gamble 24

Not Voting: Lil Uzi Vert 538

Names in red = rule of three

Can we have a side conversation on whether rule of 3 is a real thing or not

[u r a person 2]

find it because I was, what, power wolfing day 1 through skitter and inferno pushing super hard on me? I wish I could manage that

J/w but why do you think you're incapable of powerwolfing through scumreads d1?

i was exaggerating a bit. I think I could, but I it would be tough. skitter is a force, and inferno was pretty loud. It was stressful as town so I think I would have had trouble as scum

[Detective Pikachu]

Luv is an IC here of course and therefore cannot be scum so the pool of votes we'd be looking at is {u r a person 2, ausuka, bob, garmr}. Knowing that I'm town I personally can condense that to {ur2, bob, garmr}

more fodder for "is rule of 3 a thing" discussion

[Detective Pikachu]

Bob -> egix -> skitter

and even more

man if rule of 3 is a thing then Ausuka hit that note every single time lol

[Detective Pikachu]

oh wait shit 1305 suggests rule of three to egix

womp womp

[Detective Pikachu]

In either 292 or 1305, Ausuka created a list of three names to lynch, and included no scum. And in the other one, she included exactly one scum.

Maybe "rule of three" is a thing 50% of the time with scum? So more like a "rule of 1/6th"?

[Detective Pikachu]

1/6th -- also the exact ratio of selecting a scum totally randomly in this game for a scum player (3/13 --> 2/12 if you are scum)

vis-a-vis, if Ausuka includes lists twice in the game with 3 names, and in only one of the two times does she include all three names, thus resulting in a 1/6th likelihood that scum includes a scum name in their list of 3... then therefore the likelihood that a scum list of three includes 1 scum name vs 0 scum names is exactly the same as a totally random guess (1/6).

*maths*

[Detective Pikachu]

Wanna say Ausuka spewing some BS VCA while pushing a Sasha lynch is very slightly more likely to result in a list with 0 scum than a designated lynch order in mid game game?

[u r a person 2]

I think you're down the rabbit hole pretty far mate

[Detective Pikachu]

Egix made exactly 11 arguments against you; rejecting the "rule of three" logic as scummy refutes 9% of his case on you.

[Detective Pikachu]

If I toss the rule of three thing and the other points that seem fairly weak, I think his argument on you being scum is that:
159 is scummy, primarily in tone

Your development on Exilon does not make sense