Mini 2079 - Guns & Roses [Game Over]

[Pine]

I’m in for KML100. I’ve kept loose tabs on this game, will catch up when I get home from work. It’s a short enough game that I’ll just read it all.

[Pine]

I like these replacements.
Also Haschel its mostly just talk on how to play the setup for the most part.

Honestly this is a wildly good playerlist with a fantastic mod. I'm excited.

Delaying my read-through for a few hours. Rough day at work and I need some mindless R+R.

[Pine]

Prodded yeah yeah

I've had a really busy couple of days. I'll read up tonight.

[Pine]

Reading now

[Pine]

Reading now

\o/

The coniferous slowpoke finally shows up!

Bite me?

[Pine]

I'm writing a catchup post while I wait for SUPP results.

Again, I apologize for my absence. This has been a difficult week, and I've been really unmotivated. Should be a lot easier to stay current once caught up.

[Pine]

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[Pine]

@Hito it usually is, but it's a short enough thread and I replaced in near the start of it. I feel bad about it.

Nearly done with my catchup. Please hold off hammer, maybe talk to me about it first.

[Pine]

Pages 1-3

-Blah blah blah mostly a process story, back and forth about setup spec.

Page 4

-A lot of newbie education stuff, little content.

Page 5

-

Post 101

- First interesting post, game effectively starts. Hito comes off as Town, even if he's grasping at straws here.
-Some actually decent gamesolving discussion between Hito and Ali. Both looking Town.
-Pops not looking great here.

Page 6

-I like Cephrir's entrance.

Page 7-8

-Pops continues to rub me the wrong way.
-LLD's posts in here ping me a bit, I'm not sure why. 176 feels especially off.
-Implosion looks okay, but jury's still out.

Page 9-10

-Not a ton stuck out to me here. Pops continues to scum it up.
-The wagon on me ramps up, blah blah blah. S_S's vote not great, Pops' is bad.

Page 11

-Never mind, S_S post 251 is hardcore Town. So are 254 and 256. Conscious self-doubt and analysis.
-Implosion looks good for recognizing the above about S_S and pointing it out.
-This is really the page that confirms Pops!scum. He's going really hard for low-hanging fruit not defending itself, ignoring any other analysis.

Page 12

-Wtf Ali? Pops is making good posts? He's doing literally nothing but taking cheap shots. TR erased. Also I have no idea what e's talking about in 289.
-Haschel coming off strongly Town here. Especially 293.
-Taking this opportunity to ISO xyzzy, and this is an absolutely awful wagon. His posts aren't great, sure, but there's not nearly enough content to make a confident decision on him. With so much ACTUAL content to analyze and other scummy players, I am

very

suspicious of how it is developing.

Page 13

-Literally 3/4 of this page is about mocking me. Fair enough.

Page 14-15

-Ali looking better now. 331-334 is indicative of critical reasoning.

Caught up, will post a summary readslist.

[Pine]

Town (no particular order)

hitogoroshi
Haschel Cedricson
implosion
Something_Smart
Cephrir

Null

xyzzy
Alisae
cyanjet

Scum

Lady Lambdadelta
popsofctown

[Pine]

Pine, do you have a lot of experience with pops?

A modest amount.

[Pine]

Pops I know you are all in on cyan town but if pine flips red I think that's where I look for buddy. You're pines #1 scum read by a mile but he has nothing to say about your cyan-town crusade?

Hammering in like 10

Cyan has absolutely no content. I dismissed the Cyan TR as scum faking a read.

[Pine]

Page 5

[...]
-Pops not looking great here.
[...]

Page 7-8

-Pops continues to rub me the wrong way.
[...]

Page 9-10

-Not a ton stuck out to me here. Pops continues to scum it up.
-The wagon on me ramps up, blah blah blah. S_S's vote not great, Pops' is bad.

Page 11

[...]
-This is really the page that confirms Pops!scum. He's going really hard for low-hanging fruit not defending itself, ignoring any other analysis.

Alright, on page 11 you finally give reasons behind your Pops scumread, but before that you have a whole bunch of "Pops is scummy!" without actually saying what is scummy about those posts. So what specifically doesn't look great on Page 5? What rubs you the wrong way about pages 7-8? How does Pops "continue to scum it up"? What is bad about Pops' vote on you?

My reads, especially when catching up, are largely tonal, focusing on things like attitude, demeanor, etc. It's hard to point to specific things in the first 10 pages which informs my read, but I was getting strong impressions that Pops was going for the easy target. They were also completely avoiding commitments on large sections of the playerbase. This is the kind of behavior one uses to give the appearance of busily scumhunting, when in reality you're just piling it all up on a few targets. In ISO, there's absolutely no analysis of Cephrir, no substantive mention of Haschel until a throwaway "I could lynch" in 347, repeated assertions that implosion is scummy but no attempt to pursue or explain why, and practically no mention of LLD except to state an unexplained TR. In fact, the only real effort I can see is against a popular target (S_S) and two absentees (xyzzy and I.)

This is classic scum tactics. Don't rock the boat, go after easy, popular, or undefended targets.

VOTE: Pops

[Pine]

In fact, the only real effort I can see is against a popular target (S_S) and two absentees (xyzzy and I.)

You and xyzzy were basically collectively holding the game up yesterday. Why shouldn't town go after you, particularly in a setup with only two scum?

Because being absent site-wide (non-games do not count, there's a very different investment metric) is NAI. It's usually due to life, and I would think you'd respect my game enough to know that intentional lurking like that isn't really a worthwhile strategy. Especially if it were to start backfiring.

Yes, absentees need pressure to get back in the game, but that comes from the mod in the form of prods. Throwing shade and votes is an ineffective method for catching the attention of someone who isn't current on the gamestate, and will therefore not actually receive the message. Pressure-voting lurkers is a garbage strategy for Town.

[Pine]

Maybe the answer to those "Who knows" questions is "Pine." He professed to have some experience with you, hopefully he can weigh in.

It's been a while for both of us.

[Pine]

I get that. I understand the ire at having absent players - but I don't think the response was appropriate.

[Pine]

I get that. I understand the ire at having absent players - but I don't think the response was

appropriate

.

From a tactical perspective, I mean. Not suggesting there was anything untoward. Stupid English language.

[Pine]

Implosion, jam with me a bit.

What are your thoughts on Pops?

[Pine]

I can respect that. Honestly, my case against him is pretty circumstantial. There's nothing really damning. Everything he's doing, I've seen Town do. However, the preponderance of "why would Town do this?" is just so strong, and this isn't an "innocent until proven guilty" situation.

[Pine]

Hmmm.

Okay, you make some reasonable points. However, I just looked over my notes, and the PoE strongly points to him too.

Town (no particular order)

hitogoroshi
Haschel Cedricson
implosion
Something_Smart
Cephrir

Null

xyzzy
Alisae
cyanjet

Scum

Lady Lambdadelta
popsofctown

xyzzy and Ali are dead, and cyanjet continues to have no content.

Let's table Pops, I don't see one of us convincing the other.

Thoughts on LLD? This looks like her scumgame, though she's playing it close to the vest.

PE: Hey, S_S, get in on the jam session.

[Pine]

What's LLD's scumgame look like? I've never seen it.

A notch above active lurking, sniping, hitting targets of opportunity, flexible reads. Tends not to take hard stands.

Could be outdated or blinkered by perspective, I think I've only played a couple of games with her in the last few years.

[Pine]

I liked her rant early. She hasn't done much since then.

She could be scum.

She is on my short list of people I need to sort directly more, along with hito.

Bolded is important. She's the type to make an effort to get an early TR then fly under the radar.

Cephrir and S_S are locktown for me right now. Implosion's racking up Townpoints too.

[Pine]

I've seen LLD's scumgame but I don't know what specific features it has that are distinct from her towngame.

Also a fair point. She's more engaged and gamesolve-y as Town. Signs of questioning herself, looks stuff over and gives it real consideration. Less trite.

[Pine]

I should really keep dossiers on people.

[Pine]

VOTE: LLD

I could compromise here, but I'm going to stick to my guns for a bit.

[Pine]

Hmmm.

Fair points, but I keep coming back to my PoE.

Anyone on my Town list you want to burn at the stake?

[Pine]

As for my vote, you can consider it to be on

Alisae

,

xyzzy

, and

S_S

.

Also noteworthy

Not really. TvT is pretty common.

As for Haschel, his entrance was pretty good, and he seems to be making a concerted effort to sort and solve. This in particular caught my eye:

I hate the timing of the wagon. Two days ago, sure. Now, when we have actual content from people and the deadline is in three days? Hell no.

There's like no scum incentive for that kind of introspection. It shows critical thinking. He saw a strategy not working, and moved to correct it. Scum are best served to just let it ride, see if they can coast to an easy, blameless mislynch.

[Pine]

I feel like Pine is meant to know me better than that, and know I prefer scum over town, and if I do have an engagement preference its usually as scum?

Like I certainly don't get demotivated as scum... I rather enjoy it.

Hey now, I didn't say you weren't engaged, a step above active lurking is a step above. I was actually suggesting that you would slowplay the thread when things are going well, nudging it in the right direction without exposing yourself. That's a crafty strategy, and one I'd respect.

[Pine]

Okay, it’s pretty clear I’m not going anywhere with my pops vote. You guys are fucking blind.

I’d vote LLD, but I think that’d put her to L-1 and I don’t want to do so without a chance for further discussion.

UNVOTE:

LLD is on notice[/b

[Pine]

Not really, but I’ve tried logic and explaining myself. A little frustrated by the nonsense TRs on him.

[Pine]

What investment metric does queueing for additional games track on.

Okay look, you’ve brought that up before and I ignored it. Signing up for a new game is zero investment. Or rather, it’s a promise for future investment. I was invited by PM to the game, it took me literally less time and effort than this post.

This is my point, guys. Pops is making cheap shot straw man arguments.

[Pine]

Ok I’m comfortable with an LLD vote now.

VOTE: LLD

[Pine]

Night kill analysis

[Pine]

Thanks a bunch person I voted for

Why would that prevent me from answering your question? I don't take votes personally. You're wrong, not evil.

I mean, unless you are. But I'm not getting that vibe from you.

[Pine]

I typed this and got ninja'd but I'm postin anyway: NKA means night kill analysis. basically in ancient times players would pore over dead players final words to try to deduce why a certain player died and scumhunt based on that. then there was a counter revolution where people said that it could be hopelessly polluted by WIFOM and second-guessing and the correct answer is to ignore it completely. Now I think we have reached an enlightened age where you pay some attention to their biggest unique points and level of soft-claiming but don't let NKA override your fundamentals, just nudge them.

This is a good historical analysis.

[Pine]

Ok I’m comfortable with an LLD vote now.

VOTE: LLD

????????

I was holding off to give her a chance to show up and change my mind. She didn’t.

Reading is hard, I know.

[Pine]

Nah. Implo is Town. I spotted a Towntell.

[Pine]

I feel like I've lost this round. I don't really see any path to getting my scumreads (Pops + LLD) lynched without first proving my intentions by flipping green. I'm not interested in pushing a save-myself-compromise because I have TRs on everyone else. I'll go back through some ISOs to see if I missed anything (having last minute doubts about Pops) and then take my ML like a man. It's likely necessary, though ofc not ideal.

[Pine]

I feel like I've lost this round. I don't really see any path to getting my scumreads (Pops + LLD) lynched without first proving my intentions by flipping green. I'm not interested in pushing a save-myself-compromise because I have TRs on everyone else. I'll go back through some ISOs to see if I missed anything (having last minute doubts about Pops) and then take my ML like a man. It's likely necessary, though ofc not ideal.

LOOK AT THIS SCUM FUCK ROLLING OVER AND DOING THAT "FOR THE GOOD OF THE TOWN" APPEAL.

THE RULES ARE SIMPLE FOLKS. IF SOMEONE ASKS FOR DEATH, NEVER DENY THEM.

DON'T PLAY WIFOM GAMES. DON'T OUT GUESS YOURSELF. THEY SAY THEY'RE OK WITH DYING, PROVIDE THEM THE SWEET GLORIOUS DEATH THEY DESIRE.

Yeah, I don't do that. You've played with me enough times to know that I'm a tenacious scum who doesn't even give up in Twilight, just in case there's a governor (there never is). This is disingenuous as fuck.

[Pine]

Also, I'm specifically not asking to be saved. I am comfortable with dying here, but I do require that my views be taken seriously. LLD in particular is classically scum here.

[Pine]

LLD, you still haven't explained why Pine wouldn't play this way as town.

Well that's just not a very productive question. For one, it isn't theoretically-Town's job to prove beyond doubt, much less indulge hypotheticals. For another, it's theoretically-scum's job to be convincing Town, so decent scum players (and I think enough of myself to say I have a good scumgame) just plain don't do stuff that doesn't have a plausible explanation.

A version of this would be to say "X behavior fits both Y's town and scum meta. Why is it the latter instead of the former?"

[Pine]

A more effective version*

[Pine]

Ehhh, fair enough. I suppose I was taking issue with phrasing more than content. Proceed, good sir.

[Pine]

Implo y u do me the betray

[Pine]

Fine, what do you want me to say? I’ve made my cases, they were ignored. I PoE’d my Towncases, they were also ignored. What, do you want me to beg? Roll over and compromise-vote for someone I think is Town?

I’ll try to be less bitchy after I eat some dinner, but I feel this match is mostly being played with emotion instead of reason, and that’s not productive in a Mafia game.

[Pine]

No he isn’t. Go back to the scumthread.

[Pine]

To be fair, I have definitely ghostwritten posts for scumbuddies in a tight situation, but it’s vanishingly rare, and takes some real coordination and guts to pull off.

[Pine]

Stalled game has stalled.

[Pine]

Dude, don’t apologize! Go be a dad!

Congratulations!!

[Pine]

Fite me on S_S. My perceived towntell out of S_S is about as strong as they come.

[Pine]

Like “Damn girrrl you’re fiiiine” but for an overweight middle-aged dude

At least I hope so

[Pine]

Busy days, this game fell off my radar pretty hard. Not that it looks like much has occurred.

Not interested in pivoting onto S_S right now and doubt I will be willing to over pine but I'm happy to hear arguments about him. I could theoretically pivot onto Kagami but honestly not lynching Pine today at this point probably just leads to this game getting even more bogged down tomorrow. And the most likely way we lose this game is it dying to apathy.

Actually, day start should make things a lot simpler.

[Pine]

Hmmm, you know what.

I'm going to claim.

I'm a N3 gun.

Now scum need to either commit to lynching me today, kill me tonight, or let me have a free hand.

[Pine]

I'm telling the truth. Around the 550s I was just resigned to being the lynch.

I don't do the despair thing as scum. Ever.

[Pine]

So since you're here and still voting Pine, ceph, what are the circumstances under which scum-Pine derives any benefit from this?

Hito is wrong that there's some world in which scum-pine lives, he obviously gets deadline lynched in the abscence of a CC.

What are the odds that the town gun is N3+ (which is a very foolish choice)?

It wasn't my choice, fwiw. I replaced one of FakeGod's irl friends.

Shouldn't there be two Town guns? 8 Town roses announced at game start, standard 10:3 distribution, 13 - 3 - 8 = 2.

[Pine]

I don't think the other gun should claim right now, for the record.

And what the hell do I stand to gain by claiming unprompted as scum?

[Pine]

Dude. LLD. Your desperation to get me lynched won't make up for the fact that you've done fucking nothing else all game.

[Pine]

Oh snap, you're right.

Sure, go ahead and CC me, then.

[Pine]

Dude. LLD. Your desperation to get me lynched won't make up for the fact that you've done fucking nothing else all game.

My dude there is 0 percent chance you did not know there were only 11 players in this game after being in the game this long.

None.

You are fake claiming, your actions are scummy across the board. You Are Scum.

Actually, there's 100% chance of that...why the FUCK would I make that mistake?

[Pine]

pretty sure 8 roses means the optimal play is for everyone to not say a word about their choice, argue with me in thread if you think different but please no one claim anything until someone gives a good reason.

VOTE: popsofctown

you were the person who taught me how to play league of legends, a clearly immoral thing to do

000snip annoying youtube clip000

Anyway what I meant by this is that we have one gunner and that person is a more or less named townie. Obviously the issue is that if you claim that the other 8 roses become obvious to scum but the question you have to ask is "what are the scenarios where scum can kill all the roses... and NOT the one gunner.... and not win automatically?"

And I can't think of one. I literally can't think of one.

So I think the gun should claim ON THE DAY they shoot to be a named townie that day and shoot that night.

And no rose should ever ever ever claim their night they are safe. Ever.

You yourself suggested not claiming.

Obviously I'm trying to save myself.

My slot self-sorts after this claim.

Either I get CC'd and lynched, shot by the scumteam as a threat, shot by the real gunner, fail to deliver and get lynched, or I shoot scum and prove myself.

There is no pro-Town reason to lynch me right now.

[Pine]

The sad thing is that it is.

[Pine]

Yeah, that's fair. I've wildly mishandled this game. I have strong scumreads I can't get prosecuted, and haven't successfully defended myself. The claim rollout was botched, and I made a fairly inexcusable unforced error on the number of players.

You're playing an awesome scumgame, though.

[Pine]

Also, let's be clear - LLD's current furor to get my lynch across the finish line? She knows she's the prime target for my bullet.

[Pine]

THEN DO IT

LET ME EAT THE NIGHT KILL

WHAT DO YOU HAVE TO LOSE

[Pine]

The whole point is that claiming makes my slot self-sorting. There's no other gun to CC, and either I soak the NK or I don't

[Pine]

The hilarious thing is I haven't lied once, and you're going to look absolutely awful on my flip.

[Pine]

The hilarious thing is I haven't lied once, and you're going to look absolutely awful on my flip.

??????

OK?

AND YOU THINK I'M SCUM RIGHT?

SO WHY IS THIS PHRASED THIS WAY.

LMFAO

You're going to look awful, desperate, and scummy for pushing this. I want you lynched. My logic is not complicated.

Okay, I'm done engaging with you. We're both just repeating ourselves at this point.

What happens, happens.

[Pine]

Again, for the record, I have never and will never do the "scum gave up" thing. I have a massive amount of historical meta to back this up. That isn't a good argument.

[Pine]

Also, I'm specifically not asking to be saved. I am comfortable with dying here, but I do require that my views be taken seriously. LLD in particular is classically scum here.

Scum!Pine never makes this post.

Ever.

Ever ever.

Not ever.

If anything, if I felt I were caught with no escape, I would simply cop to it, congratulate Town, and move on. That's not what happens here.

[Pine]

To play devil's advocate, I could be coaching him.

I'm not, but I despise seeing a disingenuous argument.

[Pine]

GG.

The setup on average is probably a bit townsided. The setup as it was instantiated here was probably pretty even. Having a more even gun/rose split is probably better for town. I think it'd be better at a higher player count as it was originally conceived; at this player count it's okay but idk, I feel like the concept would shine more at around 17ish?

I really really disagree that scum has any real incentive to pick rose in this version. If I was town I was planning to pick n2 or n3 rose (undecidedly); as scum it was really, really obvious to pick guns. S_S was wondering why scum didn't take two n1 guns; we more or less made our choices separately. LLD opted for n1 gun (i assume she needed to be able to claim it if the split hadn't been so one-sided) and I opted for n2 rather than n1 with the logic that (1) there could theoretically be a high preponderance of n1 roses, (2) if there are relatively few roses then having kills on later nights is potentially more valuable because we would have more information about what players are holding the roses. At least I think that's what my reasoning would be.

I agree with virtually everything implosion said here. Well put and well played.

Apologies to Town, I bungled this. That said, this is why lurking is a bad case. It’s NAI, and there’s just plain no defense against it. I got flustered and irritated, all while dealing with my very real RL issues.

The gun claim went badly. My mistake. I assumed that an uncountered claim would be a get out of jail free card, but I underestimated the ingrained suspicion. I will take credit for flushing LLD out, though. My claim and intent to shoot her prompted her to obvscum.

[Pine]

Also, sorta related, but is anyone on MS a

known crackshot

on a vig?

I’m not perfect, but I’ve got a like 60-70% scumkill rate. Intent to target LLD should serve as credentials.