Guns & Roses III [Game over]

[Something_Smart]

Because those votes are going to be important in deciding who gets lynched.

Oh gotcha.

Ngl I was afraid you were trying to call me a lurker

Wait, hold the phone. Why texcat? She's already on GL.

[Salamence20]

Mostly caught up finally.

VOTE: GuiltyLion
I didn't like the way he sheeped Salamance onto the Datisi vote. I don't like the way he switched over to Aaron.

In the case of texcat, we need more info and the vote from him was from forever ago.

[Amrun]

Just warning all my games: I have a stomach virus and it’s sapping me of all energy to be productive.

[texcat]

Mostly caught up finally.

VOTE: GuiltyLion
I didn't like the way he sheeped Salamance onto the Datisi vote. I don't like the way he switched over to Aaron.

In the case of texcat, we need more info and the vote from him was from forever ago.

I don't see any reason to move my vote.

[Datisi]

Texcat, how come you haven't posted anything in almost two days, but you posted about an hour after of someone calling you out? And just to defend yourself?

[AaronFrost]

first off - I see this happen a lot in mafia games. Someone acts scummy (regardless of their alignment), someone relatively town leader-esque presents a case, and a whole bunch of people town or scum jump on because the slot looks scummy.

That doesn't mean the suspicious slot is suddenly town now. You all are just assuming Amrun is town because a wagon sprung up. Good wagons can go fast especially if townies are mind-melding. I strongly disagree that wagon speed is ever indicative of alignment and if anything I think scum are often afraid to sheep onto fast mislynch wagons because they know it's a mislynch.

Then, you say, "there is no counter wagon!". What just happened on the last 4 pages should make it pretty clear that

I am now the counterwagon

.

Finally, I don't just hop on that wagon as scum. Like, let's make a similar argument S_S was making earlier in the game. If I, as town, always have novel and detailed and well-founded reasons to vote someone, why would I not make an effort to recreate those as scum? Do you really think scum!me is so blasé and arguably

stupid

to talk about how I think alimdia odds of scum are >> than Amrun odds of scum yet still vote the leading clear wagon?

I already explained that I was townreading the people on the Amrun wagon and that it's far more useful to join game-advancing wagons than to vanity vote in a game with a large number of players. I'm not townreading Amrun and so I feel comfortable voting for her. I'm not gonna pretend like I've got some cool new insightful scumtell that provides me with An Original Reason To Vote This Wagon when I don't have one, I just liked the case Menalque was making, didn't scumread anybody on the wagon, and felt it would be a good vote.

When did I ever assume Amrun is town? True, she's not my top scumread anymore but the wagon speed/composition has nothing to do with it, it was mostly her response to the wagon that made me less confident in her being scum. And yes I fully acknowledge that she could still be scum and have not indicated otherwise. However, I like my vote on you more right now.

There was no counterwagon at the time until I switched my vote.

I'm not saying you have to have this new insightful take that no one has ever said before, that's pretty unrealistic. But to specifically say 'I'm confident that alim is gonna flip scum' followed by the out of nowhere vote on Amrun raises my alarm. We had a few days left in the deadline at that point and plenty of time to start another wagon if you were less sure on Amrun. Hell, that's basically what I just did.

[AaronFrost]

If he's townreading everyone on the wagon, then how is there good odds of scum on it from his point of view?

PEDIT: Really seems like he cares how he looks in that post. Like I feel like as town no matter what you should go for your strongest scumreads.

there's two or three days left in this game and I know I don't have the pull right now to convince 7 other people to vote alimdia with me.

Also, I said it was good odds Amrun is scum, not that there are good odds of scum on it.

Okay I misread that part then so that's my bad.

[DrDolittle]

VOTE: amrun
sorry

[Amrun]

VOTE: amrun
sorry

Why are you apologizing?

[AaronFrost]

it is also pinging me in a bad way that amrun wagon jumped up to like 5 votes within like 5 minutes of me starting it whereas I've been suggesting ddl is scum for like a day and yet there's no play on that wagon whatsoever, despite multiple people saying that they'd compromise there or expressing doubts around his slot

I don't think players like DDL or texcat are good Day 1 lynches. I don't think lynching them would give us a good idea of where other players stand whereas lynching someone else would give us a good idea where they stand.

[DrDolittle]

like you're the reason why i /in'd and im hating myself for voting you, but i think there's high probability you're scum since the threshold for town you is a bit higher, and you have not met it

[AaronFrost]

UNVOTE:

Don't really want to do Amrun anymore. I think this is a better vote for today.

VOTE: Guilty Lion

His hop on the Amrun wagon was gross and I agree lack of a counterwagon is unsettling.

Have you seen Amrun's voting? And you don't think it's at least equally gross?

Eh her hop on me was bad yes but I liked her response to the wagon. I'm not like townreading her or anything now but I don't feel as confident in my original scumread.

I disagree that Amrun should always be the lynch today.

[Something_Smart]

Threshold of what?

[Amrun]

like you're the reason why i /in'd and im hating myself for voting you, but i think there's high probability you're scum since the threshold for town you is a bit higher, and you have not met it

I’m the reason you inned? Seriously?


Well if you’re town, you’re wrong, but sadly not confident on that either.

[DrDolittle]

@SS threshold of how town a player has to look before i call them town

@Amrun Yeah, so I really hope I'm right.

[Something_Smart]

@SS threshold of how town a player has to look before i call them town

Does that mean that you start the game scumreading everybody?

[Menalque]

I’ll be getting to this more tonight, I’ve been busy elsewhere

[Menalque]

it is also pinging me in a bad way that amrun wagon jumped up to like 5 votes within like 5 minutes of me starting it whereas I've been suggesting ddl is scum for like a day and yet there's no play on that wagon whatsoever, despite multiple people saying that they'd compromise there or expressing doubts around his slot

I don't think players like DDL or texcat are good Day 1 lynches. I don't think lynching them would give us a good idea of where other players stand whereas lynching someone else would give us a good idea where they stand.

I’ll say quickly that I disagree with this tho: ddl may not have been as active as amrun or GL but that doesn’t mean that he’s inherently less informative

Regardless of who it is the positioning of people around gives info, but info value is not as good as actually lynching scum

If ddl is the player most likely to flip scum (I think he is) then he’s a good lynch even if he’s not ss spewy as amrun/GL would be regardless of their alignments

[Menalque]

Like I’ll case ddl later but for now it’s worth noting that he’s got 45 posts in which he’s fine basically nothing

[Menalque]

Done*

[FakeGod]

VoteCount 1.5

amrun [5] - Datisi, Iconeum, GuiltyLion, Creature, DrDolittle
GuiltyLion [6] - texcat, Amrun, AaronFrost, Salamence20, Dogwatch, alimdia
DrDolittle [1] - Menalque

Not Voting [2]

- Something_Smart, Pretentious

With 14 alive it takes 8 votes to be chosen.

Countdown to deadline: (expired on 2019-12-11 13:35:31)

[Salamence20]

I dont think youre going to have time menal

[Something_Smart]

Normally I like it when there are two competing wagons close to deadline, because it's interesting and there's a lot to read into both in the moment and afterward.

I don't like it this time, though, because pretty much nobody on either wagon has actually given a good reason for their vote.

Like here we are, probably most people are taking it for granted that no lynch outside of {Amrun, GL} is possible, and yet all I can recall about why Amrun is being wagoned is one post she made about Aaron and I can't recall anything about why GL is being wagoned.

This is concerning.

For the record I think Menalque adamantly pushing a third option is towny especially if Amrun/GL do end up being different alignments.

[Salamence20]

Pretty sure the amrun wagon has had reasons why (mostly menal and sheepy, oh well).

GL is made just for a counterwagon.

You also have to add the fact that a good chunk of this playerlist isnt playing.

You know what fuck this, Im doing things.

VOTE: Creature

Theres people here that have been scumreading the dude for awhile now, heres your chance to put your money where your mouth is. The guy started good and now hes just gone. Thats a bigger cause for concern compared to Datisi/Icon.

We dont have time for this I admit, so if this is wrong i will move back to GL before deadline

[Something_Smart]

I'll go for it.

Was considering Iconeum because 731 feels more agenda-motivated every time I read it, but I don't know if it would be that on the nose about trying to push through a mislynch as scum. It actually probably looks worse if Amrun flips scum because those bad optics are no longer an issue.

But it's been the better part of the day and I have yet to be impressed by Creature.

VOTE: Creature