Newbie 2001 | Game Over

[Gypyx]

I know that a 72 wagon isn't really realistic, but i'd rather mention it

1) Already explained, my point was that even though 72 and petri are my 2 biggest suspcets, i don't see them being scum together, and as no one is really defending them, i guessed that the second scum must be between the less active players, and between all of them, BV is the most susp one

2) well in my case against petri, i tried to avoid making points that other peoples made already, so yeah it's quite short, but yeah, you got my main reasons for thinking that he is scum and also the fact that he had done nothing that makes me think he's towny is kind of a red flag in my opinion

[fwogcarf]

2. I'd rather wait for Luciano, Enomis, and Gypyx to come back. Maybe one of them can hammer if they aren't voting BV already.

2 of us are on the wagon. You are so disconnected from the game and so deep in your confbias tunnel it's insane.

it's not like I'm used to weeklong days

[fwogcarf]

I don't want to lynch BV anymore because they're a dead slot

[Micc]

How exactly do you intend to resolve this dead slot going forward? Do you really think something is going to change?

[72offsuit]

Reading through now.

[72offsuit]

@Petri - given you now know what chainsaw defense refers to, can you address my question from 150 , how likely do you think !scumMe defends !scumfwog from a single-RVS-vote? As far as I can see you never answered this.

[72offsuit]

Re-read the quote, and changing my question: BV, nice to see you back I suppose. Played any mafia elsewhere in the meantime?

Nah, I kind of fell off somewhere around 2015. Ended up back here doing a bulk password reset, then one thing led to another and here we are.

This post is rubbing me the wrong way.
It reads to me like an awkward post from scum who don't know what to post, but feel like they need to post something that appears to be like contributing.
I don;t think its genuine to expect a layered townleans/reads order by page 3.

Non-RVS vote based on gut:

VOTE: Gyp

I do not like the posts from either person involved in this conversation. Flipping your vote on to the person who's voting for you is sketchy in general, especially here where it's just "gut" with a flimsy excuse. Also, Read lists with no content are bad. They provide Mafia with a ton of information on how they're doing, with very little actionable information.

For the rest of RVS into Wagon stuff, I think one of the SEs could better explain. From my minor experience and reading other games on this site, RVS going into a wagon helps spark pressure and discussion early. We can see how the targeted player or players respond to being focused and at a high vote count, we can see what players push the wagon and what players avoid it. It's not much to go on, but it's something. And could provide useful information on a reread in future days once some people have flipped.

So short version you're right. Basically, every hidden role game like this relies on early game being messy and pointless until someone commits to a line of thought. This is even more pronounced in forum-Mafia play, since you can't really catch someone tripping over their words, or any of the other normal tells that a person might show when they're nervous. RVS enables that by getting some early reactions and discussion, which can get the ball rolling.

I get a scummy vibe here from bv calling my vote a "flimsy excuse"
A weak read is better than no read. You painting my vote on gyp as scummy, by basically calling it OMGUS, is scummy in itself.

[72offsuit]

Fair. At what point do you feel that it is justified to pressure inactives simply to prevent mafia from lurking?

well, i'd say that once we're halfway through D1 huge lack of activity without asking from replacement / providing good reasons for that lack of activity is a red flag

So what is your take on a slot that was inactive, stated a reason for inactivity, then asked to replace out.

Scumlean? Townlean?

You should never take replacing out as AI.

Why not?

[72offsuit]

VOTE: bv310

Big scum pings from this. for one it's not really a catchup. second, unvoting a scum lean is a move reserved for moving yourself from a small wagon you believe in to a bigger wagon you believe in. bv310's vote change here goes in the opposite direction which is not productive at all.

Spoiler:

Alright, catch-up time!

First off, UNVOTE: for now. I'm not as sold on my Petrichorus read as I was before. Still scum-leaning, but they're putting a lot of effort in to answering questions which is nice. Third i think this is a strong misrepresentation of fwog's posting so far, and not a good reason to be voting him.

My current point of interest is actually Fwogcarf now.

One of my favourite early game strategies is to look at people in ISO to look for lots of posting without content. Right now, most people have provided information-gathering, answered larger questions, given opinions, that kind of thing. The only people excluded are Fwog, JV, and myself, and JV has decided to replace out. To me, that leaves one good option for digging in to. Fwog, your vote is currently parked on Mask. Do you still think he's a good choice for voting? Why/Why Not? If you were voting elsewhere, who would be a reasonable option in your opinion?

Also, Lucky, still waiting on your thoughts from yesterday morning. You said you needed time to gather your thoughts, and then never came back.

Oh right, also VOTE: fwogcarf, because I forgot to include it in the last post.

^This, in a nutshell.

100% agree, not a genuine catch-up from a town mindset, very superficial.

Hate the self meta explanation of what he likes to do.
Feels like a guilty conscience over-explaining/justifying what he is doing/what is intentions are.

[72offsuit]

Hey guys, skimmed through the threads and make some notes.

Town:
Tuxedo seems town to me.[The part where he talks about quarantine being the reason why he tries to skim the thread very often to try to inspect people]
Fwog can be town for now as i grouped some of his interactions with tuxedo,gypsy and 72 as not scumxscum interaction.

Scummy:
BV,Petri

Abit Scummy:
72

Rest not much read.

This reads list is odd.
Why does your scale go from Town, to scum, then to "a bit scummy"?
What is the rationale for laying out your reads list in this manner?

[72offsuit]

Gypyx - Early on in my writing of this post he was a light green. There's effort to contribute new ideas and understand other players early on in his play, (47, 72, 88, 124, 164). I also like that he doesn't acquiesce when pressured and defends his views, (88, 99, 123, 125, 127, 130, 163, 168, 173, 177, 180). This was weighed against his case against Petri (202) which felt like non-content when compared to his previous posts as well as his general decline in activity as the day progressed. I think overall things weighed in his favor. My problem, however, comes with his recent posts. 283 introduces BV to his solve which feels like he's just sheeping the flavor of the month wagon

i'm not, the reason for metionning bv in my solve is that, while petri and 72 are my 2 highest scumreads right now, i don't really see them being scum together, therefore i'd see the second scum between the less active peoples, and out of all of them, bv is the one I susp the most

, which when paired with his reasoning for voting Petri

you don't explain that part, where is the problem with me voting petri?

is a bad look. I also feel that when called to contribute 282, instead of offering new thoughts like he did earlier, he repeated my question towards enomis

well, sorry about that but I posted my messages as I was reading through what i've missed, so when I posted my question, i wasn't aware yet that you had already posted something similar

(286). In other words, he came back and made 6 posts, and I don't like any of them. He has a lot going for him earlier in the game, but there's been a drastic falling-off in reasons to believe he's town somewhere after 180, and an uptick in reasons to believe he's scum.

3: i agree that this is a pretty big coincidence but, that point seemed very natural to me, i just posted that as I thought about it and then, I don't see how me making the same point as someone else is a scumtell

then for who's town i'd say something like

Gypyx

self listing ftw

tuxedo

his content strikes me as really towny, it really feels like there's a line of thoughts behind his posts, and overall, i don't find much to question about his posts

Lucky

I feel that you had opportunities for good scum plays, but you deliberatly chose not to take those, even when you totally could have got away with it

fwog

while he sometimes makes weird posts, he seems relaxed and his posts are quite disorganized, i don't think he's following an agenda if you see what i mean

The rationale in 292 regarding scum association analysis feels genuine, and 297 reads list likewise feels genuine. gyp can go back to null.

[72offsuit]

Thanks for the explanation of chainsaw. That makes more sense now.

@Micc, I was responding to Lucky regarding what I thought of the wagon on me. You voted for me and then didn't engage with the discussion on the wagon, then jumped to wagon BV. I happen to agree with wagoning bv, though if you have any thoughts on my wagon while we're at this junction, that would be good.

I'm going to move my vote to BV as it seems more pertinent to do so. In heart, I want my vote to be on 72, but unless he actually engages with the forum, there's no point building pressure unless we're just going to lynch him.
VOTE: bv310

My reasons for voting BV:

1) Yes. I've been following but lurking because I don't believe posting 20-odd one-liners is needed when there's already others taking that role. I feel comfortable right now looking at interactions and trying to spot inconsistencies.

This is disingenuous I feel. I don't think, either through external factors or not, that he has been looking at interactions regularly. If you've not been active through RL getting in the way, own up, as he does later. This section of the post makes it seem like its a choice that he's made to not comment, and that I do not think is true. Even if it is the case, then lurking but not making any comment at all is not helpful for the town. Refusing to interact to avoid analysis is just a defense for scum. BV has made 3 posts of some content, not giving any strong reads and voted Fwog as a 'point of interest' but not following this with any kind of momentum or investigation. By the time they come back, they longer appear to be interested in questioning fwog as the group seems to have come to a consesus for now without him.

BV's top scumreads it appears are me and Micc. I cannot see why he reads Micc this way and thus far has not elaborated.

There's also a contradiction here:

I do not like the posts from either person involved in this conversation. Flipping your vote on to the person who's voting for you is sketchy in general, especially here where it's just "gut" with a flimsy excuse. Also, Read lists with no content are bad. They provide Mafia with a ton of information on how they're doing, with very little actionable information.

With his statement on 72 above. Doesn't add up for me.



@Tuxedo, I thought I answered you comprehensively in post 274. Were you wanting a more clear answer on my position on self-listing? I think I've laid it out elsewhere but I'll reiterate and elaborate here. I have concluded that self-listing on a forum medium is NAI. You cannot tell tone from a list. IRL self-town-reading is what I am used to and often people have tells you can catch. Being as that is not the case here, no it is not in itself suspicious. It never was the main focus on my suspicions regarding that chain of posts and still isn't. After I realised my mistake vis a vis Gyp calling Micc into suspicion not Fwog, fwogs original post ceased to really be pertinent aside from being context to Gyp's post. I don't think it's a chainsaw moment, I dislike 72o's wagoning on what appears to me to be a rather benign post.

In addition, the oxford comma is throwing me, are you asking whether there is a difference beween defending a [suspicious action] and a [non-suspicious action] or a difference between [defending a suspicious action] and a [non-suspicious action]
Either way, the answer is yes I agree there is a difference

Agree here regarding bv.
Really hate the line: "Yes. I've been following but lurking because I don't believe posting 20-odd one-liners is needed"
There is a massive gulf between the extreme of lurking at one end and spamming 20 one-liners.
Massive hyperbole, overly defensive.

[72offsuit]

Not getting any real overall town vibes on anyone.
I feel like I'm somewhere here:

townlean: micc
null logjam: enom/fwog/gyp/LL/petri/tux
scumlean: bv

[72offsuit]

Since y'all seem settled on me for the day's lynch, I'd encourage those of you on the wagon to spend a few minutes looking at the other people involved and asking what your read is going to be when I flip Town.

I'm not making any gesture, I'm tired and trying to get people to do some actual thinking about their own thoughts and influences instead of hand-waving away D1 as it being all my fault, which I've seen many times. I don't see any of the 4 currently on my wagon changing that opinion with 2 days left.

Ye. This doesnt feel like its coming from town.
Town convinced they are going to be lynched would push a case against their strongest scumread as a dying FoS to guide rest of town. Bv is just basically saying, figure it out yourselves.

Im claimimg intent to hammer.

[Tuxedo Mask]

@72, can I have the day to reread and post end of day thoughts? It'd be much appreciated. Sorry for slacking on this game.

[fwogcarf]

How exactly do you intend to resolve this dead slot going forward? Do you really think something is going to change?

I hope so

[fwogcarf]

However this whole argument is useless if 72 hammers BV right now

[Tuxedo Mask]

I might be misunderstanding then. When you said "at this point", is "this point" 271.

Either way, help me understand how that being your plan

at any point

is a good strategy. I'm not seeing why you didn't hard push me if you were confident that I am scum. I'm also concerned with how you seem unaware at how badly you are looking to confbias a read when your plan is to build a case against somebody else with the intent of using their flip, no matter what it is, to push me in the following day phase.

Yeah that seems right.

I haven't pushed you yet because I never got the opportunity to
VOTE: LuckyLuciano

What does this mean? Shouldn't you be making your own opportunities? Why wait so late, and after your plan fell apart for this?

Also, could you try explaining your plan more clearly? I don't know what your lynch chain is supposed to accomplish, or even why it's set up the way it is.

[Tuxedo Mask]

Micc: Like their solviness, and theory conversations, all feels like a genuine place of wanting to build a strong town discussion. I noted posts 66, 93, and 108 being ones that I specifically liked.

Fwog: I don't know how to feel about at all, I don't follow their plans or votes at all but that's NAI. It also has moments where it seems like they aren't reading closely, not realizing how little BV had posted, thinking I was accusing someone of chainsawing when I was just explaining it. Again don't know what it means, probably just used to faster games, so he's reacting on a post by post basis. But it seems more likely for scum to just skim. I think #216, #172, and #95 look good. #69 (nice) is a good highlight of this not really paying attention pattern.

Chainsaw means to defend your scummy buddy by pushing their attacker. Fully called Chainsaw Defense.

Spoiler: Chainsaw Defense

Chainsaw Defense
The general form of this tell is "a player who defends another player by attacking the other player's attacker is very probably scum".

The key to identifying this tell is intent - it is possible to confuse Chainsaw Defense with a player who simply finds the attacker scummy and has no intent of defense. In general, you can be reasonably sure that this tell is involved if a) the player supposedly using Chainsaw Defense has not previously been especially critical of the player he is now attacking, and b) the player supposedly using Chainsaw Defense seems to find the player he is supposedly defending at least reasonably pro-town.

The extreme form of this tell is Mutual Chainsaw Defense, where two players defend each other by attacking each others' attackers. This is a major scumtell, and Tarhalindur would be willing to lynch/vig both players with only this tell as justification.

The Chainsaw Defense is named after the mental image of a player ripping apart another player with a chainsaw for daring to attack his ally. It should not be confused with the Cochrane Defense, which can also be referred to as the Chainsaw Defense (the Wiki refers to the Cochrane Defense this way), which is a gambit made by players investigated as scum. The Chainsaw Defense can also be referred to as the Bodyguard Defense in order to prevent confusion.

why would anybody chainsaw defend in this setup

72: Vanishes than comes in with big spurts of content and questions. #80 feels awkward, them stating it's not an RVS specfically. I like their big burst in the #150s posts.

LL: They come in with a lot of energy that I like, and seem to generate good discussion with many people, Micc specifically. I think they do a good job of making themselves understood and engaging. Telling me to address Petri felt very town, and their bafflement at Fwog seems genuine.

I feel myself

wanting

you to be scum right now, so I'm going to take a step back and let other people weigh in before I end up confbias tunneling you.

This part I don't really understand. It feels kind of awkward and out of line with how they've been playing the rest of the day.

Gyp: Gives me good town vibes, they feel eager and genuine. #47, #72, #74 (though easy), and #78 feel good, natural, and solving focused. Their exchange with LL felt awkward but in an honest and town way. I've been there, just wanting to be understood.

JV/enomis: Jv's posts felt relaxed. I liked #40, #42. Fro Enomis null, haven't really been pushed or taken any hard stances. Asking lots of questions, but it's hard to gauge how he feels about the game.

Petri: I think they've improved over the day, very open to engaging. Answer questions over and over, and pushing theirs hard as well. Even and making sure the questions they ask are seen and responded to.

A couple of things I don't want to get lost and would like answered:
@Enomis,

Are there any interactions in D1 that you think are scumxscum or do you feel that they've avoided prolonged interaction?

@Fwog

92 - Just because 72 came to defend me means I'm locktown? Sorry Petri that doesn't make sense, especially when you congratulate me on doing something you think I'm scum for

RE: 92 - Please define 'locktown'. I'd like to know before I answer so as not to be misconstrued.

@72offsuit, with the exception of your 'gut read' on Gyp, you haven't posted any other content that I can see that gives any other read. You've asked plenty of people for their reads, but given no others from yourself. You say your gut read was to move us away from RVS but you've taken no other steps since your return to continue that momentum. As such, I would like to know whether your read on Gyp has changed and if not, who else do you read as Scum.

Can someone explain the jargon 'chainsaw' to me?

In addition, new questions and answers:

Spoiler: @bv310

72offsuit - The opposite of Fwog for me. Comes in early with reads and details, then drops off that entirely when other people start arguing.

What details or reads does he give at the start of the game before his disappearance with the exception of a single 'gut read' post on Gyp. You're giving him a lot of credit for all the nothing he did and seem to be reading into his drop-off when it seems NAI.
I'm getting some bad juju over this.

@BV, are there any contributions from 72 that you think are particularly notable or that show any leaning to you? I personally see mostly conjecture and bs.

Spoiler: @Lucky

I want to see more of this version of fwog and less of the mid-D1 fwog.

Seconded. That said, Do you find that the change in behaviour itself is AI or not?

@Petri, I also meant to ask in that last post, I'm looking for more content from you that isn't a defense of yourself. Is 72o still your primary focus? What are your thoughts on the other players and the different pushes made so far, both against you and against others?

I think that the questioning from yourself, Tux and fwog seem to be in good faith. To contract the state reasons for the votes of Tuxedo, Micc and Gypx are as follows:
Tuxedo: 103

When it comes to the 72/fwogcarf thing, I'd like to know what people are getting at in the 'defending' argument.

Is it suspicious for 72 to 'defend' a player on his own? Or do you think 72's defense is suspicious because you think fwogcarf is suspicious?

This has been a thoroughly discussed interaction and the interrogation was thorough and in good faith. I think the questions he asked were pertinent and aimed at building useful content.

Micc:

VOTE: Petrichorus
I'm in agreement that this is a good direction. I have fwog, Gypyz, tuxedo, and luckyLuciano on the probably not lynching today list, but that's contingent on me putting a little more work into actually think about things probably tomorrow

Micc did not engage with the wagon at all. After stating that he thought it was a good direction he then jumped off the wagon to chase bv. I don't think scum would have got off the wagon that quick, but it isn't entirely helpful.



Gyp: 202 -

My general thoughts on Petri is that he focuses way too hard on being friendly with others / his reads and way of playing don't make me feel like he wants to find scum

Petri states that his opinion changed, but it feels like there wasn't much needed to make him change his mind, as if he wanted to avoid getting unwanted attention for his opinions on the game

but it feels to me that he's just hoping that someone else will get the wagon rolling for him, in order to avoid suspicion

I think the reasoning is a little weak and he is late-ish to the wagon. He didn't interact much with the wagon after voting, but had some good posts on it before he jumped on.

I don't think any scum has jumped on the wagon. Whether it's because they're mostly inactive or because they don't want to jump on too late, I don't know.

72 is still my primary focus, but we'll see if he comes back or gets replaced. If he gets replaced, then maybe this will change. I'm happy while this is happening to move to BV as I concur with much of the discussion. I find his read on 72 specifically of note as a point which I don't think has been brought up yet.

Spoiler: @enomis

I'm still waiting on JV's replacement to react to the Petri push.

I'm also curious as to what a new perspective brings. Enomis, please can you exlain your reads and why you thought BV was more of a priority to push with a wagon?

Weighing in on Gyp:

I think the formatting and questions is NAI. When catching up, it's easy to re-ask questions. It's strange that they're so close together but I don't think it's a major suspicion.
301 seems to be well reasoned and a good answer to Lucky's question as far as I see it. As previously discussed I'd personally focus on who we want as a D1 lynch.

This is a specffic post I like a lot. Just has a little bit of everything.

Next is Bv.

[Tuxedo Mask]

Late to the party, and probably won't say anything new, but here it goes.

For the rest of RVS into Wagon stuff, I think one of the SEs could better explain. From my minor experience and reading other games on this site, RVS going into a wagon helps spark pressure and discussion early. We can see how the targeted player or players respond to being focused and at a high vote count, we can see what players push the wagon and what players avoid it. It's not much to go on, but it's something. And could provide useful information on a reread in future days once some people have flipped.

So short version you're right. Basically, every hidden role game like this relies on early game being messy and pointless until someone commits to a line of thought. This is even more pronounced in forum-Mafia play, since you can't really catch someone tripping over their words, or any of the other normal tells that a person might show when they're nervous. RVS enables that by getting some early reactions and discussion, which can get the ball rolling.

It strikes me that agrees with me here, and yet.

Yeah, he's not mentioned anything about Petri. So there is no evidence he scum read him. Someone pointed out that when question he jumped from one extreme to the next, saying he'd rather lurk tan spam posts.

He also later town leans on Fwog while keeping his vote parked on him. Scum or not he's asleep at the wheel.
I'm very pleased with this lynch today.

Final thoughts, I would like to get everyone's view on this on the record before the end of the day if possible. Especially clear up Fwog's feelings on it.

I also have thought, early in the day, there seemed to be a lot of miscommunication that seemed easy to exploit. Me/Fwog Me/Micc 72/Gypx, and yet it didn't happen, chaos wasn't sewn as easily as it could have been. Perhaps because both scum were absent up to that point in the game? So BV, JV, and Armcello. Has Armcello played scum before?

Man, I haven't played Mafia on here in years. It's nice to see some things don't change.

VOTE: Petrichorus

Gotta spread the Day 1 love around.

Aren't wagons considered more effective to move out of RVS?

Does it himself, and doesn't address it. Interesting who he voted for, but every time I think about it my head spins if WIFOM. Would Petri help lynch his partner day one?

Alright, catch-up time!

First off, UNVOTE: for now. I'm not as sold on my Petrichorus read as I was before. Still scum-leaning, but they're putting a lot of effort in to answering questions which is nice.

My current point of interest is actually Fwogcarf now.

One of my favourite early game strategies is to look at people in ISO to look for lots of posting without content. Right now, most people have provided information-gathering, answered larger questions, given opinions, that kind of thing. The only people excluded are Fwog, JV, and myself, and JV has decided to replace out. To me, that leaves one good option for digging in to. Fwog, your vote is currently parked on Mask. Do you still think he's a good choice for voting? Why/Why Not? If you were voting elsewhere, who would be a reasonable option in your opinion?

Also, Lucky, still waiting on your thoughts from yesterday morning. You said you needed time to gather your thoughts, and then never came back.

[Tuxedo Mask]

@Tux, who are your townreads? I get the feeling that you are more inclined to look for scum that to look for town, is this correct? I come to this conclusion because you come across as slightly paranoid.

Currently, I gotta pretty good vibes about most of the active players, Petri is coming up, with Micc at the top. Fwog confuses me, and I'm null Enomis.

I think I'm always paranoid, but to what angle seems to defer from game to game? This game I've felt pretty confident in my scum reads, but not any strong town reads besides general good vibes. But in others, I've felt good locking people as town left and right but can't find scum to save my life.

[72offsuit]

@72, can I have the day to reread and post end of day thoughts? It'd be much appreciated. Sorry for slacking on this game.

Obv. Im not quickhammering.

[fwogcarf]

I might be misunderstanding then. When you said "at this point", is "this point" 271.

Either way, help me understand how that being your plan

at any point

is a good strategy. I'm not seeing why you didn't hard push me if you were confident that I am scum. I'm also concerned with how you seem unaware at how badly you are looking to confbias a read when your plan is to build a case against somebody else with the intent of using their flip, no matter what it is, to push me in the following day phase.

Yeah that seems right.

I haven't pushed you yet because I never got the opportunity to
VOTE: LuckyLuciano

What does this mean? Shouldn't you be making your own opportunities? Why wait so late, and after your plan fell apart for this?

Also, could you try explaining your plan more clearly? I don't know what your lynch chain is supposed to accomplish, or even why it's set up the way it is.

Ok, I'm going to be brutally honest.

I've never had a plan in the first place. I supposedly waited so long because I never had any solid scumreads to try and push. Now that I have Luciano as a definitive scumread, it's become way too late in the day for people to switch to their wagon because I wanted them to. It wouldn't make any sense considering I haven't pulled up a lot of proof other than interactions I hated.

So yeah, I'm pissed.

So yeah, I'm fucking up again like I always do. Sue me.

[fwogcarf]

I'm unbelievably frustrated that I can't read more than 1 person as scum

[Tuxedo Mask]

Hey man, it's cool, just a game. I'm wrong all the time. On a different site, I just mislynched, but also regretted the lynch at the last second. So now everyone thinks I was trying to look good by getting off a bad wagon at the last second.

Hell in this game, I directly questioned BV about his weird RVS, and never followed up. That was something I could have pursued way earlier in the day but tunneled Petri way too hard.

But we can talk now. What do you think Lucky is scum, and why do you think BV isn't?