In post 772, DkKoba wrote:i'm going to bed but if midway is hammered i dont mind.
no offense, but you are the most anti-town town player i ever met
you give no evidence for your reads and they all seem to be based on your gut(which we both know can be very wrong). It seems like you pick and choose how stubborn you are. In some cases, you instantly believe an explanation. In other cases, you stubbornly refuse to change your mind regardless.
the only reason I townread you is because of your interactions with joqiza, but unlike you I might change my mind
what is np? night period?
i think you should actually read it now or whenever you have time. my early game is pretty funny, and i feel like it's not too boring(the game overall).
In post 777, midwaybear wrote:what is np? night period?
i think you should actually read it now or whenever you have time. my early game is pretty funny, and i feel like it's not too boring(the game overall).
But then I have to open a spreadsheet and I don't want to do that.........
are we talking about me? im here. there really hasnt been anything to respond to. you can vote me if you want, but if so itd be cool if you stated reasons why
my votes have come from points where i have actively seen someone's behavior as scummy and thus pushed them for content — enomis/maduisha/midwaybear would be my pool to lynch in if i were asked at this exact moment and my vote has signaled that thus far.
from what i can interpret of at least their latest vote on midway, they wanted to wagon midway despite thinking apogee's content was poor since it was apparently Enough. however, they don't seem to present much of a reason why they want the wagon again.
In post 152, votato wrote:i read the thread. i voted you for two reasons: you have several posts already that read like either trying to look like youre town but doesnt do anything gamesolvey, or just really scummy/bad.
I also think that youll be pretty easy to get a read on once we put you under some pressure, so youre a good place to start
.
clemency: why are you putting in effort at the start of this game? isnt your MO to shitpost?
pedit: be taken out? arent you the one refusing to answer questions? town has no reason to hide their intentions or thought process.
what posts specifically are scummy to you? i don't think it's bad to push obvi but i don't know which ones you think stand out as especially offensive.
well i do think that DkK seems way to easily convinced by clemency. That would be a pretty easy lie for clemency to tell. I bolded the most relevant part of that post though. DkK gets very aggro and emotional when under pressure, and i think you can pretty easily get a peek at what lies under the spammy, mildly annoying exterior. After pushing him, I have him on a solid town read. I haven't seen him in any scum games, so I could easily be wrong. But, he's right. this is exactly how town!DkK thinks and acts. I also dont really see what he sees in enomis.
In short: I didn't think DkK was really all that scummy, I just thought he'd be an easy place to get a read. Turns out I was right! UNVOTE:
I will straight up disregard all reason if you have a PR dream again. You can come back and be like, “I dreamt that Locke is a N2 Bulletproof Multitasking Cop and Self-Targeting Doctor,” and I will go, “Okay, Locke kill it is then.”
hmm good point. it was because Dk's post style changed. but since i pointed it out, perhaps it was a conscious choice to be more aggressive and spergy. in any event i think that Dk isn't really a scumread by now.
Sorry, was busy earlier, but wanted to write this post before I go to sleep.
I wanna preface that I think that the “pushes for content” are at the point where they are not conducive to town win condition. This is simply because we are at the point where we are forcing multiple players to L-1 and starting to narrow down PRs via claims/softclaims. We’ve already forced a softclaim out of Maduisha which means if she is not scum than mafia have a narrowed list of players to hit for PR. Following that, I’ve gone through and re-evaluated the players that I think are up for the lynch today. You can skip to the end but the tl;dr is that I want enomis lynched and I’m going to push for it from this point on. He is the one player that I am most confident will flip scum, based both on evaluation of his slot as well as PoE. I expand on this below, starting with the current midwaybear wagon:
---
Midwaybear
@Dk I need to talk to you at some point, maybe tomorrow, but I’m not sure I really follow the reason for this lynch, and I don’t really understand the incentive behind running this guy up again if it’s for content because we already had a wagon on him earlier in the day.
I think I mentioned I was having problems reading this guy in the beginning of this game: posts like 188 and 209 I simply have trouble reading for alignment. I’m naturally paranoid of these sorts of “too innocent to be scum” posts due to certain players I’ve played with on my home site. Honestly the majority of midwaybear’s early game is of little to no value and I am just disregarding it.
In order to try to determine midwaybear’s alignment I’ve gone through not only this game but his latest 1997 game, in which he was mafia, linked here: viewtopic.php?f=11&t=82731. Side note day 1 of that game was fucking hilarious. What’s really worth noting is that some of midwaybear’s posts in 1997 were truly terrible (he outed read lists a couple times that were genuinely scummy, usually justified with a single vague sentence). The other thing is that as scum he would ask so many damn QUESTIONS. Literally take a look at his ISO and see how many question marks there are:
(below posts are all screenshots from midwaybear 1997 scum game. Look at the lack of conviction in every single post he makes)
Nowhere in the ISO of midwaybear’s 1997 game will you find a post such as 566 or 696, in which midwaybear expresses strong conviction in reads supported with actual, post-cited evidence. Admittedly, in both 566 or 595, I find the bear’s chain of logic somewhat twisted, but I think this may be one of those journey over destination sort of things. Maybe I am looking at it with confirmation bias because 1997 bear is confirmed to me whereas 2003 bear is still an unknown quantity, but every post 1997 bear made leaps off the page as scum, he is basically hardclaiming it to me in every post, his absolute refusal to take any kind of definitive stance in that game is extremely scum-indicative.
I am going to make a rough evaluation of bear as a player and say that he is not radically capable of switching his scum-game up this much between two consecutive games, I think based on Occam’s razor just suggests he is town here. I will hear you out Dk but for now that is my read on midwaybear.
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Maduisha
There are two players that I’ve scumread throughout the course of the day, but at this present time I don’t feel that either of them would make a good lynch today, these players are Maduisha and Apogee.
On Maduisha, it is difficult to evaluate the slot for me personally, I found the most recent content somewhat upsetting in that I felt I upset her if she does flip town. I do think that her inability to give scumreads is troubling: this is my preferred “thing” to look for when I’m determining alignment, so my best tool in evaluating her is basically taken away from me. Secondly, even if she’s town—and I truly mean no offense by this, it is showing a weakness in identifying mafia which would be obviously problematic going forward.
My hesitation in lynching her today is simply her response to being put at L-1.
One: She essentially put the gun to her forehead and shouted “DO IT” which is generally town-indicative although very frustrating and anti-town in general.
Two: She has essentially hardclaimed vanilla townie in post 492, and furthermore softed it in posts 366, 368, 459—probably others. This consistency in a VT softclaim is simply not what I’d expect from a scum player being racked up to L-1, with intense scrutiny on them, if I were scum there I would probably claim PR there in order to fish, or at least permit myself the flexibility to do so if I thought I might be hammered. Claiming VT is obviously not totally alignment-indicative, but it indicates that if Maduisha is scum she essentially gambited here, as I do think she was in danger of being lynched at that point in time.
---
Apogee
When I outed my initial scumread on post 375 on Apogee, I did not scumread him as strongly as I perhaps tried to indicate during this push—I did find his behavior scummy but I “leaned into it” in a sense in order to try to get a better gauge on him. I do still feel like much of his early game behavior is questionable, but Apogee responded with about as fair an explanation as one could offer: I rate his scum game fairly high if he does indeed flip scum. He stayed very cool under pressure, offered a town-POV explanation for every action he made, made no attempt to “bully” me off my read and even conceded certain points, and lastly I just really like his opening to post 388.
I am not sure why Apogee immediately reciprocated midwaybear’s TR only to then walk it back—I think that was another questionable thing that has happened, but I really don’t think it reads at all like a midwaybear/Apogee scumteam, I think that’s kind of wild frankly and if anything it is a pocket of one player to another. I really don’t know where the scumteam read comes from as I very rarely have seen scum defend each other so blatantly at this stage of the game.
Lastly, Apogee outs a fairly strong readlist on post 730, which is enough to convince me to argue against a lynch of him today. Yes, out of personal preference I would rather have him be taking harder stances on players rather than null/light scumleans, but I also respect the need to be honest to one’s level of read if town, and in general I think his willingness to engage with us and actually make these sorts of posts means we should keep him around. I think after 730, despite certain behavior patterns I find suspicious, I do ultimately townread him or at least townlean him.
Enomis
First thing I’m gonna do is re-hash my initial read on enomis, which remains relatively unchanged.
Cites some basic mechanics in their intro post, I consider that NAI given it’s a newbie game. Questions both Apogee and Clemency immediately based on misconstruing their words, interpreting their statements in the most literal way possible, possibly a slight language barrier. Super questionable how they double down both on the scumslip and on pretty much everything DkKoba says, also their TR on Apogee makes absolutely no sense, I rr post #65, dude TRs Apogee because they are “genuinely scumhunting” because they are using the term “wolf” and newb town wouldn’t do that? Dafuq?? On Post #301 has an absolutely garbage teamread on me/Koba which I think he knows he can’t even commit to, let me ask you something, have you EVER seen one scum partner say “my partner is hard town I will never vote them until I die” on DAY 1 of a game where you have TWO mislynches? Answer is no, that is never a scumteam and any experienced player should know that. Remains obsessed with pushing clemency as of #303 for more nai statements after I already clarified why their logic on Clemency’s slip doesn’t make sense, really seems to be working backwards from a “Clemency is scum” which they’ve already decided on, so at best is confirmation bias, at worst is scum-motivated. Analysis: scum read
With enomis I have not gotten the sense that any of his reads are genuine, whether it be scumread OR townread.
Let me quote part of post 65 which is probably one of the most damning IMO:
- Town Lean. Feels like genuinely scumhunting and using terms like "wolf" which sometimes newb town uses because they are not used to calling scums "mafia".
Clemency
- Scum Lean. For the scumslip and a few other stuff which i don't like.
Also:
In post 24, Clemency wrote:statistically speaking everyone is town until proven otherwise
Feels like a convoluted way to explain the slip. I don't know, probably NAI.
Then:
In post 30, Clemency wrote:UNVOTE:
i think other slots are higher priority to push rn
i'd pick one if i wasnt walking home atm
But went ahead to post a few posts without pushing anyone.
My vote stays on Clemency until I find someone else scummier.
@Clemency: I would like to see your push on someone else.
I would like to go ahead and add Post 166 to the case file: seems to express intent to have DkKoba lynched despite referring to them in a town which implies they think they are town.
Enomis has avoided engaging me since I entered the game and has basically slipped away from any of my attempts to point out the flaws in his logic. None of his reads make any sense to me, and in the past couple days his content has dried up completely.
The last reason I scumread him is entirely speculative/admittedly a reach, but I think it may possible that enomis is slipping maf knowledge at several points in the game. Post 202 potentially reads as a slip of midwaybear being town, and there is another post I can’t find rn but might look for later where I thought enomis might be slipping Maduisha as town as well.
I have been asking for them to re-evaluate the Clemency slot, and, in general, play the game in a more holistic manner for a long time now, and they are (along with Clemency himself) one of the players who has most steadfastly refused to do so. As a result, I believe that even if I’m wrong and they are town, they are still an adequate lynch today in terms of playing to the larger town win condition, I do not want them going forward to tomorrow or possibly LYLO. I do not trust their logic nor their reads, and I find a lot of their posts insincere. This is the only player at the table that at the moment I can say I genuinely and truly scumread.
TL;DR/Summary
The three lynches I have really considered today are Maduisha/Apogee/enomis, and of those three my strong preference is enomis. This is not a reaction test nor a “push for content,” as of rn my intent is to have enomis in the graveyard unless he comes back and truly drops thunder and makes me re-evaluate. I have learned to keep an open mind about these things but rn the urge to death tunnel within me.
To give some space for discussion/re-evaluation, @enomis, what I would want is a read list, and who you would want lynched if it were not you, and why.
If there is a 4th player I would throw into my above lynchlist, it would be votato, simply because he seems more capable as a player and there are certain red flags which I’ve noticed. That said, if he is scum he is playing fairly well IMO and he was the first person outside of Koba to actually take initiative and try to evaluate my slot, even if the attempt was surface-level, in my personal experience this has been strongly strongly town-indicative.
The rest of the players at the table I don’t really want lynched today for reasons I’m already talked about. To be honest, as of rn I am evaluating every single one of my TRs, but I think this is an inter-day thing, I want enomis lynched and if I am alive on Day 2 then I come back and re-think everything based on the information from his flip.
It’s about 2am my time and I have work tomorrow so I’m probably not going to respond to any questions for awhile, but I should be around a bit for my lunch break and tomorrow evening.
Alright, I stayed away from the thread enough since my Apogee/Midway changes of mind and I feel like there's enough content to analyze now. I will quote examples of things that ping me and I will comment on them to flesh out what I'm thinking and why. I'm going to start with my wagon, which is my favorite thing that happened recently, since I don't have to worry about scum bussing anyone (from my perspective, anyway). Let's start.
So, I'd say my wagon starts in post 337 when Votato claims I deserve a counterwagon for pushing Midway more strongly than the rest of people in Midway's wagon, although I already had a vote parked on myself from Ydrasse in post 284. I think nothing of this post because I agree with Votato in that it's interesting to push a slot that has been pushing a different one pretty hard to see if scum would flock onto a counterwagon or if there are crickets as response. Votato starts to argue with me after voting me, pressumably to gauge the legitimacy of my Midway push, however he seems not to have read my posts too well, because he misunderstands what I called a contradiction in Midway's actions, which was the post in which he makes a point of revealing reads only when his scumreads produce more content and then revealing it almost immediately anyway.
Here's Votato's post:
Spoiler:
In post 340, votato wrote:its not a contradiction to have both fluff posts and content-posts. the key is whether there are any content posts, and whether the content posts are genuine. I mix in plenty of shitposts with content posts. it doesnt make the shitposts scummy. and you made that judgement way too early in the game. you're also wayyyy to confident in your 3 scumreads this early, which is why it makes sense that scum!maduisha would hedge by expressing self-doubt. Do you townread anyone? why?
I think this denotes lack of reading/comprehension, or lack of veracity to his argument with me, because he didn't try to understand my point of view. Also ignored the fact that I explained my townreads before, but I can chalk it up to them being buried. The other ignored point is in the very same page, however.
Moving on. Votato asks Midway why does he scumread Clemency and me:
In post 336, midwaybear wrote:I feel stronger about clemency being scum than votato
mostly for reasons people have said before
1. I didn't like his early game. I don't think what he first posted was necessarily a scumslip, but I didn't like his explanation.
2. clemency never really attacked anyone, and was mostly on the defense
I know this isn't a lot, but I can't really find anyone else to build a case on. Maybe I am just being lazy though because there have probably been a couple of scumtells so far.
here
I also have a lighter scumread on Madiusha because she seemed to be trying to push a low-hanging-fruit(me). Now, she seems to be eager to get lynched which is weird and somewhat anti-town.
tbh I think clemency is more likely to be scum than madiusha, but I don't like her recent behavior
In post 362, votato wrote:why is eagerness to get lynched anti-town? i dont think she said shes eager to get lynched. she said shes eager to get wagoned. and getting lynched is not in either alignment's wincon
Here Midway misunderstands my eagerness of getting wagoned for wanting to get straight up lynched, and Votato seems to understand what I'm trying to do here, so I'm townreading this interaction.
The next slot that interacts with my wagon would be Joqiza, who had expressed scumread on me before and does it again in 374, who calls my stance not improving, theatrical, insincere, and a good policy lynch even if I'm town, but he instead moves onto Apogee in 375 and starts a discussion with said slot which ends up in him unvoting but not placing a new vote anywhere despite claiming to scumread slots other than Apogee. I did like the interaction in the sense that it was the most solid Apogee push so far and it did draw content from him that allowed me to see Apogee in a better light, but at the same time I'm not liking Joqiza's stance on the situation. There were 2 votes on me, one of your preferred lynched, why did you not push the vote onto me when you finished clearing Apogee? Afraid to get your feet wet?
Next. Ydrasse comes back. She had a vote parked on me already, so she didn't
need
to squeeze me further because she had already stated a scumread with reasons and a vote long before, yet she charges again, which makes me feel good about the slot in the sense that I don't feel like her words are a political stance to stand at a comfortable place, but rather that she is following her gut. Her post here:
In post 284, Ydrasse wrote:hey, idk how Coherent i might be tonight because it is also party night for me as well over here, but i find it a bit odd to say that i've been open because from my perspective i've kept my thoughts pretty open-ended. i haven't outed many reads as overtly as some others and most of mine have been fairly forgiving/light at that.
however.
UNVOTE: VOTE: Maduisha
i skim this game while i'm working and mull over what i read, and try to figure out as i go, and maduisha's posts were some of the ones i couldn't move past. maduisha feels very... mechanical. i think part of this is gut (234, mainly "I honestly think you just wanted reactions because the thread is kinda dead today, so I'm not gonna take you seriously, lol." which doesn't feel... right to me.) but in part it's posts like 126 (over-explanation of terminology, adding in things that feel fairly obvious like "although I will still re-evaluate the slots as the game continues.") and posts 239, 242, 249 and 253 (which try to hammer home how Paranoid she is.)
i dunno. i'd like to see if maduisha has any actual scumreads? she's pushing on midway but frankly i feel like midway is easy pickings atm because of their lack of contribution. it's good to get content out of them but maduisha said she didn't wanna hard-tunnel anyone, so i'd like to see that.
The explanation about terminology comes with a reason: that joqiza said I had 3 townreads in 5 pages and I thought he misunderstood what leaning town on someone is. If by mechanical you mean my choice of words instead, it may be because I'm not a native speaker and I probably structure my sentences in ways that feel unnatural to you, I don't know.
I don't have a firm scum read yet, but I'm leaning scum on Midway, ye. Also watching Apogee ever since he made that purposely non commital push, but his content feels null for now. And I don't know if Midway looks like low hanging fruit and I'm looking scummy for trying to dig into his slot, but I honestly don't care. If I don't explore the things that ping me "because it might look bad" I might as well not post.
it isn't that it's unnatural in structure so much as that you feel scripted. the way you act and talk feels like you're intentionally putting on a show/display.
reading for tone isn't everything, granted. i find myself agreeing with some of your content — 331 feels strong to me! it feels more like you're trying to analyze the content in a way that i can get behind, and you do have points that i'm not ignoring. midwaybear has been just... all over the place and very difficult to pin down.
the fact is that i feel like this entire time your motivation hasn't been... the best, the way it's been so single-mindedly focused onto a slot that doesn't give us much in the end and it's been clear.
that and the way 352, 354, and 357 unfold feel so just weird that i can't ignore it. like, if you've been theatrical before you're putting on the whole damn play with those. i dunno what you were going for here being like "yay! i can get content! from this" means when you didn't really like... switch to focusing anyone after unvoting midwaybear. sure, you can get information from it, but you've announced the intentions of it, which people all know how wagons go, and it falls flat. why not just... start pushing on someone else instead of waiting to reap some content from a supposed wagon.
dunno, just seems weird to me.
Do not like, however (as I pointed out at the time) that she is implying that I should immediately have a scumread after I change my mind about my 2 most scumleaning slots.
Nex that happens is this, Votato says Clemency or me are scum and that he wants to see bigger wagons if people actually believe this is the case and Midway instantly votes me:
Spoiler:
In post 426, votato wrote:at this point lots of people seem to think that theres scum in clemency or maduisha. but there arent major wagons on either one. If you really believe something, vote it.
also, im honored to be thought so highly of in the meme. I am indeed scum.
In post 427, midwaybear wrote:i guess I'll VOTE: Madiusha
she was asking for it anyways
This post from Midway really reassures me. This is what I wanted to see, this is what I was waiting for. A call to vote on a widely scumread slot is gathering votes
from people that claimed to scumread the slot
before Votato's post. I'm pretty sure Midway is town right now.
Apogee stays after the Joqiza discussion and posts some more, Votato and Midway have some back and forth, and then DK appears to question me and this happens:
Spoiler:
In post 485, DkKoba wrote:*sigh* VOTE: Maduisha
please be cooperative.
DK had scumread me earlier and he is voting a wagon on me while it's growing. It is not a false stance. There you have it, town DkKoba.
In post 460, Maduisha wrote:
Hm, I guess I'm a "reverse Midway" slot for you in the sense that I do things you can agree with, but behavior behind it feels scummy. Well, fair enough, I can't address subjective reads so I understand you have to vote a slot that you don't think you can trust.
I insist my explanation of the wagon being useful doesn't detract from the usefulness of the wagon at all because of what I already said. The reasons to vote me and the reasons not to vote me exist regardless of anything I said. This means people will have reasons to join, leave it, or avoid it no matter how much I talk about it. Even refusing to communicate a read is communication, if you get what I mean. For example, Midway has joined the wagon a bit late even though he had been saying he scumreads me lightly for a couple of pages. The fact that he did not start the wagon himself at all is information. The fact that he did not counterwagon my wagon on him is also information. I am more inclined to believe Midway is town after seeing how he interacted with my wagon. Do you see what I mean? I don't think we should confuse lynch wagons for a reaction test: what I'm looking for is logic behind a push and the timing of said logic being reasonable within the slot's behavior until now, not just to see if people vote or not. And if I get policy lynched for being controversial, then we gather evidence from the way people joined a wagon, specially if they had a bigger scumread and still decided to capitalize on me.
As to why didn't I go after someone that isn't Midway immediately: I already replied Joqiza about it, but it's also in great part that I have a wagon on me and I want to see interactions with it.
okay, you have a wagon on you. good, we can see this. we can see interactions on it.
you have to understand how it makes you look though to just sit back and say. "yep, gonna wait for people to interact and vote on this instead of trying to actively find scum myself and instead let them come out of the woodwork." right? like. you can analyze the wagon on you all you want, more power to you, but you need to also be doing some of your own legwork in this situation. it's frustrating to not have any real push from you and instead spend most of the game focusing on a slot and then poof, nothing, no vote, just gonna hang out on the off chance someone does something that i can point out.
I will repeat myself again... I'm not going to push people to fill a town quota! I don't have a requirement to scumread people immediately after the slot I thought was scummy towntells a bit. Just because I don't have anything going against anyone currently doesn't mean I'm not trying to find scum. I'm getting tired of "if you're not pursuing a slot then you are scummy" logic. Then why don't you go after Clemency? He posted afk shit, pushed DK, backtracked and townread him and called it a day and hasn't come back ever since. Ahh, because not pushing anyone is actually not AI and you just want people to trust my wagon or...?
Speaking about contributions, you have a relatively small post count, so I'm guessing you have a lot of thoughts that haven't made it to posts, yes? Can you give a read list or do you not have a fleshed out one yet? If okay if you don't, but I want to see where you're at.
why are you getting so defensive right now, and trying to turn attention onto someone else? i'm focusing on you right now, not clemency. as i've said before i thought throughout the game your tone and posts have sounded relatively scripted and it's not gotten any better.
i've already made as much clear about who i find most suspicious: you. and enomis, given the fact i was going after him earlier. i am voting you and have been as you have been my biggest scumread and you've done little to change that.
Calls me defensive, calls me scripted, but only gives me her scumreads when I asked her for her full reads. I try again in post 496 and she replied to me in 502 but does not provide them. I will not get hung up on the fact that she ignored me so blatantly and say she doesn't give them because she doesn't have them, however I feel weird about being pushed for lack of reads and then behave like this. Could be testing if I bite and ask a third time, not sure. Not townreading this interaction, but the rest of her post history feels coherent so it still doesn't waver my position on her slot, still a townlean.
The next few movements from the wagon are pretty interesting:
Spoiler:
In post 506, votato wrote:actually ill UNVOTE: as a courtesy. Vote goes back tomorrow night if you havent convinced me.
In post 516, votato wrote:Yeah most of those reads are so wishy washy that they hardly count. You aren't doing much to analyze what people said and come to conclusions. And my unvote wasn't intended to reduce pressure from the wagon, just stress from the possibility of a lol hammer. VOTE: maduisha
Votato unvotes to avoid a lolhammer, but DK and I tell him to not do that and he comes back and revotes me without hesitation. I wanted to see if he came with more reasons to not revote, but I also wanted to be at L-1 for a while more still because there were more reactions I wanted to see. Then DK questions Votato about his confidence in revoting and he disappears. The unvote confuses me profusely, but I like that he revoted because we hadn't seen all reactions from the L-1 wagon and unvoting there would ruin it.
Then Enomis comes and says he doesn't find me scummy and does not move his vote from DK. The DK vote was a pressure vote to make them answer his questions, but he parked it there regardless. He stated before that he would prefer a Clemency lynch:
Spoiler:
In post 301, enomis wrote:3) I am perfectly ok with lynching clemency today. Sorry bro, but I wouldn't want you around in Lylo if you are town, I think it would be a disaster.
But he does not take the step to create the wagon again, which I find interesting. He is not joining the ongoing one with intent to hammer, he is not removing his pressure vote, he is also not voting on his preferred lynch slot. I deem this as scummy (sorry, Enomis). And the claim that I am not scummy feels a bit weak in the sense that he did not have a strong opinion about myself, so this sudden town lead in 526 is cheap to do and very feasible for scum, so I read his stance towards my wagon to be NAI and coupled with his inaction regardless his preferred lynch, this does not look good for Enomis. He claimed to be tired and busy until today, so I'm going to wait to see what else does he have to say, but not townreading any of this.
And now, everyone! The wagon deflation. It has many interesting portions as well, so I'm sorry to make this so long, but I think it's worthwhile:
Midway unvote:
Spoiler:
In post 528, midwaybear wrote:UNVOTE: Madiusha
rereading. scared of hammer maybe will vote again
Claims to be scared of hammer, means he is uncertain that I'm truly scum. But I hadn't showed up for a long while because I left frustrated some pages ago. Why did Midway change his mind? Was he waiting for someone's response and it never arrived?
Spoiler:
In post 529, DkKoba wrote:you're not rereading. you're not scared of hammer. you're probably not going to revote. stop pretending.
In post 529, DkKoba wrote:you're not rereading. you're not scared of hammer. you're probably not going to revote. stop pretending.
you are 1/3 correct
I won't revote
Don't like votato even more especially the backtrack
Midway reveals he has changed his mind on my slot and that he won't revote. I think when he said he was going to revote, he was baiting a reaction that never came and is now onto Votato for doing that vote-unvote-revote, then switch into Apogee in 544, right after DkKoba removes his vote from me into Apogee as well.
I think Midway has a point here:
Spoiler:
In post 588, midwaybear wrote:@votato Stop trying to say that I'm hedging. In my analysis of Apogee, I agreed that his early posts were scummy, but I concluded that his explanation made sense which lead to my townread. Stop saying things when they just aren't true( aka bad logic).
Again, that is terrible logic saying that scum you would lead town apathy set it because there was no apathy in the first place. I bet if you asked people if the game was particularly slow before you came, they would say no. There is a natural ebb and flow to activity in the games, so stop trying to say that you made it go up.
Random votes are definitely more scum motivated than town motivated. It seems like you were just randomly picking people to start a wagon on, and occasionally people would agree with you (the Madiusha wagon).
ha, you also tried to defend yourself by saying you weren't voting apogee but you are.
pedit: another scummy post from votato. Previously, you were pretty eager to lynch {apogee, me, madiusha} and now you say there's too much time left
Votato
forgot
he was voting Apogee. He admits it himself in 587. I read this as:
a) His Apogee vote was not genuine because he freaking talked like he was still on my wagon.
b) Right after this fail saying "I'm still on Maduisha, I'm consistent", he
claims that the Maduisha wagon is useless and everyone should get off
in the same post in which he admits his mistake. So, he wants you to believe he is consistent because he is voting me. Then he remembers he is not voting me and argues voting me is useless at this stage of D1.
I wish to stress point b), because I'm going to base my argument about Votato heavily on it. He seems to have gotten a little shaky when someone pointed he is not being consistent. Then he makes that "get off her" comment that has destroyed my mental image of Votato's slot completely. As I pointed before, I thought Votato was understanding of what I was trying to do when I said I wanted votes on me: I wanted reactions from people that scumread me and didn't scumread me before the wagon and see if they become opportunists, if they backtrack out of fear, or if they commit to their read. Yet now he is saying there's no more juice to draw from this wagon... what?
- People that scumread me before the wagon got big: DK, Joqiza, Midway, Ydrasse.
- People that voted me after the Votato counterwagon start: Votato (duh), DK, Midway.
- People that claim to scumread me and didn't vote me at all: Joqiza (instanced several times before and during the wagon, never voted me), Apogee (revealed in 661, I know Votato couldn't know when he made 587, but bear with me, this is important).
Votato doesn't think it's juicy that Joqiza ignored the wagon on his scumread. Votato is bailing the wagon after Enomis shows up and doesn't bite. Votato does not see value in seeing if Clemency scumreads me after the ruckus I made or not. He is acting
as if he knows
nothing else can happen with my wagon, which is what is going to turn Votato in my biggest scumread, sorry not sorry.
VOTE: Votato
As for the implications of his move: if Votato is scum, Enomis is town (he waited for his response). His likely scumpairs are: Joqiza (did not point out his inconsistency), Clemency (did not show interest in waiting for him to show up, which denotes prior knowledge of what his move would be), Apogee.
Now, why Apogee? I said before that Votato can't know Apogee scumreads me because he revealed it later, right? Well, I chalk it up to Apogees move in this situation more than Votato's. He explains why he scumreads me in 730 and it explains why didn't he intent to hammer: he doesn't want me as D1 lynch because I'm his weaker scumread. I buy this stance, so I want to keep Apogee as my townlean still but with a FoS on him (yes, I know how fence sitting this looks) because this post could be fabricated to explain why didn't he pressure me when the iron was hot. In other words, I think he has the potential to be Votato's partner, but for now I'm seeing Clemency and Joqiza to be more likely.
In post 459, Maduisha wrote:
Little to no backing for my reads? I explained them several times now, one of them to you. I explained what I saw and why I saw it the best I can. I will not make up "more solid" reasons to make people think I'm onto something when I might not be. I try to be confident with my reads within a reasonable margin because otherwise people don't take you seriously, but at the same time I'm constantly trying to get some reality checks, like when I backtracked from Midway, because I was hung up on my own read being good, but then I realized that a dude that doesn't seem to realize posting unrelated stuff disrupts discussion is also very likely to be the same kind of person that makes a point that self-defeats. And a world in which Midway actually has this personality and I'm reading him wrong is a more probable world than Midway playing 4D chess, I acknowledged it and took a step back to considerate other slots.
About getting irritated in page 11: it's more that seeing scum mentality from town gets me frustrated than me getting impatient for Clemency to reread. Him not seeing anything wrong with what he's doing means he's going to be a liability if he's town, do you feel me?
And about why didn't I jump into a different wagon after dropping Midway's: As you might have already seen, I've been tunneling him mostly. My attention in his slot means I haven't watched others as carefully. The other player in my radar was Apogee, but he wasn't posting much at the moment, so I'm not going to suddenly case him without a more tangible vibe, even if I'm getting gut pings, because that's shitpushing and I can't expect him to defend in a reasonable manner if I have no argument, and I can't expect anyone to support me either for the same reason. I hope that makes sense.
My slot making for a good lynch is something I can get behind, though. If people start being unsure about me and they end up changing their minds and lynch someone else that happens to be town, it's very likely that the next lynch will be the slot they've been itching about (aka: me). If it's a matter of getting flipped earlier or later, I prefer the option that misdirects people the least. And any and all flips are informative because of association reads, so it wouldn't be a worthless flip if I know I'm a controversial slot to many of you.
Okay, I get that you don't want to make up reads that you don't have,just annoyed bcuz there's a lot of ppl saying that. Advocating for your own lynch if you are town is anti-town btw, like I've been there and I get it, but at least choose someone to thunderdome, don't just say "lynch me" when you don't even know who mafia is, it's extremely counterproductive.
I want to reply to this now. I am not advocating for my own lynch, I think I made that clear. I was encouraging a wagon on me because I thought the movements in/out of it could be informative and I'd say I'm damn right that they were. I brought up the possibility of my flip giving information because it's an undeniable outcome from flipping someone, but that doesn't mean it's my desired end result.
I want to make a point here, though: I was not trying to sacrifice there, but I have always thought that in situations in which there is wifom and paranoia about 2 slots that are closely related, offering oneself as lynch for the day is not a bad strategy because it narrows the process of elimination for town and it gives implications about the other slot post-lynch. What I'm saying is essentially that if my flip reveals substantial information about a different controversial slot, I will actually encourage a lynch there and not just a wagon. You might not like it, because you said it's anti-town and counterproductive, but I beg to disagree. You are underestimating association reads.
You remind me a lot of Lucky Luciano, a player from Newbie 1995 who I kept discussing about this back and forth, because he had the same position as you. I am very exhausted about the topic, so if you want I can quote his and my posts about it from that game or you can look for it yourself, but it is one of my core beliefs and I stand for it.
Going back to my Votato push, I am not only confident that he has been bullshitting, but I'm feeling that flipping Votato gives us confirmation about Enomis being town if Votato flips red for what I argued about before on Votato waiting to see if Enomis bites and then accepting the disappearance of my wagon without more interaction for it, so I think the Votato wagon is juicy for Enomis pushers as well.
I'm selling it hot, spots on the Votato train are 50% off today!
In post 789, votato wrote:hmm good point. it was because Dk's post style changed. but since i pointed it out, perhaps it was a conscious choice to be more aggressive and spergy. in any event i think that Dk isn't really a scumread by now.
I do not think his post style changed. He was aggressive in pressuring Clemency and also aggressive in defending against you and emonis.
@joqiza I'm pretty sure enomis is going to get replaced because he hasn't been posting anything at all. It's pretty scary that my posts were so bad in 1997.
Also, notice that votato has not replied to my accusations besides saying "the logic is twisted". Hmm...
In post 796, midwaybear wrote:@joqiza I'm pretty sure enomis is going to get replaced because he hasn't been posting anything at all. It's pretty scary that my posts were so bad in 1997.
Also, notice that votato has not replied to my accusations besides saying "the logic is twisted". Hmm...
waiting for the more to come. What do you want me to use spoilers on?
dunno what you mean by restate your accusations. they seemed really clear to me(696)
