Jigsaw's Revenge - Game Over

[Battle Mage]

ah ignore the quote above - was ISOing the BBMolla reporter claim

[Battle Mage]

On balance, I'm not sold on Vecna and VaultDweller as town. Looking back at early VaultDweller posts, he was very engaged with 2 people: Momo and Vecna. With him having no knowledge of Vecna, but Vecna claiming something to defend him, one simple explanation would be that they are simply scumbuddies. Not sure why Vecna would make that play though? Unless perhaps VaultDweller was Jigsaw? In any case, Vecna should go first, and could be viable lynch, although quite far down priority list today I think...

[Bingle]

On balance, I'm not sold on Vecna and VaultDweller as town. Looking back at early VaultDweller posts, he was very engaged with 2 people: Momo and Vecna. With him having no knowledge of Vecna, but Vecna claiming something to defend him, one simple explanation would be that they are simply scumbuddies. Not sure why Vecna would make that play though? Unless perhaps VaultDweller was Jigsaw? In any case, Vecna should go first, and could be viable lynch, although quite far down priority list today I think...

It's likely VD is town, but I can agree that Vecna looks bad. Especially when we take into account that VD softclaimed some sort of weak investigative role (add that to the list). Still though, Vecna is outside of the cophood.

[Battle Mage]

On balance, I'm not sold on Vecna and VaultDweller as town. Looking back at early VaultDweller posts, he was very engaged with 2 people: Momo and Vecna. With him having no knowledge of Vecna, but Vecna claiming something to defend him, one simple explanation would be that they are simply scumbuddies. Not sure why Vecna would make that play though? Unless perhaps VaultDweller was Jigsaw? In any case, Vecna should go first, and could be viable lynch, although quite far down priority list today I think...

It's likely VD is town, but I can agree that Vecna looks bad. Especially when we take into account that VD softclaimed some sort of weak investigative role (add that to the list). Still though, Vecna is outside of the cophood.

I mean, I'm basically saying the opposite to you here. On read alone (excluding the claims), VD-scum is very plausible, and if he was scum, clearly the next lynch would have been Vecna based on their interaction. Nothing massively worrying me about Vecna, besides the mechanics point you note, but for VD to be scum, he must be scum, and that pairing seems perfectly possible. I'm certainly not advocating a Vecna lynch on the basis of Vecna himself looking bad.

It's pretty hard for me to imagine a world in which VD (and given the claim, Vecna) and you are both town.

[Bingle]

I mean... Never lynch VD before Vecna, don't lynch Vecna today.

I don't see why Vecna fake innos a buddy here when there are a ton of viable mislynches regardless of who the scum team is, so it's likely that VD is town regardless.

That's functionally 5 investigative claims, all gated pretty heavily, and I can agree that it's likely not all of them are town. But of the three {Vecna/Dave/VD} VD is the one I suspect the least. Why would VD out himself as investigative the way he did as scum. It looks like there's already going to be a lynch on a claimed PR, so it's probably not to cast doubt on true town claims. He himself isn't under scrutiny because Vecna isn't nearing a lynch. It just doesn't make sense for VD to make the play he's making here.

I also think Vecna is more likely to be town than dave, because Vecna has flavor knowledge about VD. Vecna claimed VD's flavor iirc, which means scum has a flavor cop of some kind if VD isn't on his team.

[Morning Tweet]

Why do you think one of {Vault, Bingle} has to be scum, BM? I feel it's extremely likely Vault is town and i dont really attach it to any other players.

Also, it's virtually impossible that Vecna made up that claim. Vault is Eric Matthews, who in the movies, frantically searches for his son Daniel Matthews.

Vault's real role (or mod fake claim) has to be Eric Matthews, and Vecna's real role (or mod fake claim) has to be Daniel Matthews. Otherwise they would have had a flavour conflict with another player. Also Eric Matthews is a cop just as his PT suggests

The only way Vault can be scum is if Vecna's mod-given fake claim is a 1-way IC confirmer on his scumbuddy's fakeclaim (Vault's). Which i find pretty unlikely.

I think the more likely possibility is that Vecna's real role (or mod fake claim) is Daniel Matthews, and it 1-way confirms a townie. In that scenario, Vecna can be scum, Vault cannot

pedit: Bingle is right yes

[Albert B. Rampage]

VOTE: Drixx

And just like that, I move to the BM theory of ABR is scum. Defends and plays nice with me all game. Then naked votes me. Hrm.

You've done fuck all all game.

[SirCakez]

Vecna has requested replacement.

[Battle Mage]

I mean... Never lynch VD before Vecna, don't lynch Vecna today.

I don't see why Vecna fake innos a buddy here when there are a ton of viable mislynches regardless of who the scum team is, so it's likely that VD is town regardless.

unless VD is Jigsaw, as it would buy him some time. I can't remember whether VD was under any particular heat at that stage, which would be important, but VD would definitely have been one of the 2 options for lynching from that hood at the start of the Day, and it would have been hard to see him surviving long without the claim. If Jigsaw has lots of power wrt traps, possible that it would be worth the risk. Vecna hasn't always acted with care and sophistry in this game, so I reckon it's possible he could do that and get it wrong as scum. Although I agree, it isn't the optimal play today at all.

That's functionally 5 investigative claims, all gated pretty heavily, and I can agree that it's likely not all of them are town. But of the three {Vecna/Dave/VD} VD is the one I suspect the least. Why would VD out himself as investigative the way he did as scum. It looks like there's already going to be a lynch on a claimed PR, so it's probably not to cast doubt on true town claims. He himself isn't under scrutiny because Vecna isn't nearing a lynch. It just doesn't make sense for VD to make the play he's making here.

I also think Vecna is more likely to be town than dave, because Vecna has flavor knowledge about VD. Vecna claimed VD's flavor iirc, which means scum has a flavor cop of some kind if VD isn't on his team.

I think if Vecna is scum, VD is scum. Little doubt.

[Battle Mage]

Vecna has requested replacement.

Interesting timing.

[pisskop]

Im gonna sit down and try to sort this out.

whats the hang up

[Battle Mage]

Why do you think one of {Vault, Bingle} has to be scum, BM? I feel it's extremely likely Vault is town and i dont really attach it to any other players.

They were easily the 2 scummiest players in the big hood, with obvious links to Momo-scum.

Also, it's virtually impossible that Vecna made up that claim. Vault is Eric Matthews, who in the movies, frantically searches for his son Daniel Matthews.

Vault's real role (or mod fake claim) has to be Eric Matthews, and Vecna's real role (or mod fake claim) has to be Daniel Matthews. Otherwise they would have had a flavour conflict with another player. Also Eric Matthews is a cop just as his PT suggests

We know that scum are given fakeclaims which correspond to their hood flavour (I believe you actually told me this, so surprised you've forgotten). Otherwise, I agree that it's likely they would need to have been given those fakeclaims, which of course is perfectly possible.

The only way Vault can be scum is if Vecna's mod-given fake claim is a 1-way IC confirmer on his scumbuddy's fakeclaim (Vault's). Which i find pretty unlikely.

I think the more likely possibility is that Vecna's real role (or mod fake claim) is Daniel Matthews, and it 1-way confirms a townie. In that scenario, Vecna can be scum, Vault cannot

I couldn't disagree more. For them both to be scum, all that would need to happen is they would have had to tell each other their Mod-given fakeclaim at some point (which I imagine scum did fairly early in the game). I think it's less likely that Vecna is scum with knowledge of the identity of an investigative town PR. We don't need to debate this.

[Battle Mage]

it could be:

ABR-GuiltyLion-Vecna-VaultDweller

Although MorningTweet wouldn't like that very much...

[Battle Mage]

I'm leaning more towards GuiltyLion-scum out of all the non-hood folk. Although I'm feeling increasingly willing to look at a wider pool today.

[BBmolla]

I will literally hammer anyone at this point including myself

[Battle Mage]

Ultimately I'm not gonna fight tooth and nail against an MT lynch today - it's probably +EV for town regardless of flip if it means every wagon on potential scum isn't getting de-railed for no good reason...

[Morning Tweet]

i'm glad to have you back BM

[Battle Mage]

I will literally hammer anyone at this point including myself

Have GuiltyLion and Pisskop claimed yet?

I think one saving grace for Bingle is that Danyboy replaced out - his scum meta is to collapse and self-vote under pressure, which he didn't exactly do here.

[Morning Tweet]

GuiltyLion claimed Jill Tuck, an X-shot trap disabler

pisskop no

That's an interesting point on iDany. Although i figure scum!iDany doesnt usually have a mod-given fake claim at his disposal, unsure how that would affect his behaviour

[pisskop]

why tf would i claim?

[pisskop]

on day 2?

[Eddie Cane]

I'm probably not moving my vote today unless its needed to not no lynch

[pisskop]

Im determined to read this.

[pisskop]

Someone from my hood asked that we not do anything dramatic in the game until they can post, so I'll just sit over here and wait for them.

did this ever happen?

[pisskop]

I have to think the people placed in games is random or based on something arbitrary like wagon position or something, or at the very least decided by scum prior to the EOD. Because it's also odd Vecna is widely townread, claimed info, and wasn't put in a game, I would think if he's town he'd be a decently high priority kill for scum

If we assume scum can control who goes into the trap, then we can giver serious thought to why people are put into the traps.

And the mentioning keeps mentioning 'choices'. So . . . what are the choices if not die or die?