Newbie 2003: Earth [game over!]

[Datisi]

Official Vote Count 2.01

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With 7 votes in play, it takes 4 to lynch.

Lynching

joqiza

(3): Maduisha, votato, Ydrasse

Ydrasse

(1): DkKoba

votato

(1): Apogee

Not Voting

(2): joqiza, enomis

Deadline:

(expired on 2020-05-24 12:30:00).

Mod notes:

• ...

[/area]

[joqiza]

@joqiza
i think the main reason why letting votato sit for so long doesn't stand as a particularly strong defense is that the people that wanted to lynch him were already on him, and the few that remained had already stated outright that they weren't going to vote votato. i said i wasn't going to, dkkoba had explicitly said they were only voting quick, votato didn't really have much of an option otherwise given that there wasn't going to be a counterwagon in the time we had left, and apogee had kept a vote on quick for a longass time and was definitely convinced they were scum as well.

I truly believe that I wouldn't let my scum partner sit for so long at L-1, but OK, you have no way of believing that. How about this: the reason that you wouldn't do that as scum is because you're giving the chance for Quick in that position to towntell. Let's imagine this universe with me/votato as partners. What happens if Quick actually reads the game & comes back and absolutely drops thunder? Midway had already started TRing him. Even in this hypothetical scenario, where I'm always going to hammer Quick and I'm certain that no one is going to flip to my partner votato, why would I allow more time for my partner's "cc" (in a sense) to make their case? I would have to have to have anticipated Quick getting scummier instead of townier.

it was safe, if you were scum, to leave him at l-1 because no one was gonna flip to him, and thus it becomes a plausible reason for someone later to townread you. "oh, i definitely gave them both time to make their cases, don't you worry." this is of course if votato is your partner.

Nothing is ever for sure in mafia. People change their minds all the time.

similarly, post 2192 is wifomy in a way that leaves a bad taste in my mouth. "Honestly imagine thinking that I would literally just hammersit as scum and draw all the attention to myself when I could have hopped on the quick wagon at any time." this quote feeds into the idea that you might just be using that you didn't hammer votato for so long as a defense.

dunno man. your tone in these last few posts seems super defensive, which, i get because you have two votes on you but saying that one is just an awful post and the other person a brick wall for having what i see to be feasible reasons for pushing on you just doesn't settle right. even now i think that there is a chance that votato is scum with you if you're maf; that it is an "awful post" for him pushing on you gives some merit to the idea that it's awful/baseline so you can deflect it easily and try to move suspicion away.

I'll admit to being defensive, but I'm basically being quicklynched today for awful reasons. What were your justifications for voting Quick? Why are you acting like you don't have blood on your hands too? DkKoba made their reasoning pretty clear and votato's motive I can understand too. It's you and Apogee I'd like to hear more from.

What do you think are Maduisha and votato's feasible reasons? Did you not see me break down votato's post line by line? Maduisha has been pushing me since Day 1 based on me not perfectly using my vote in conjuction with my reads list? And you expect me to take that seriously lol? Her post at SoD where she goes through my posts at end of Day 1 just reads at best like confirmation bias of a me/votato scumteam. There's no actual analysis of: this is why they are a scumteam, this is they can't be SvT or TvT. I could probably pick out any two players in the game and do the same thing.

all being said, my current suspicions rest heavily on votato, joqiza, and dkkoba; the latter is the hardest for me to read, personally, because i do think there is a very good chance that the hardtunnel was a town player who got so sure of their reads that they couldn't really bring themselves to vote anyone else.

also, the thought's been at the back of my mind throughout this game but that dkkoba and joqiza are familiar with one another and using meta, etc might imply that one of them is using that as a way to get the trust of another? :< i dunno if they still read each other as town based on former gameplay though.

Why does apogee get a pass in this reads list when he was on the Quick wagon yesterday? Why do you TR them so hard? I thought I asked everyone to re-evaluate.

Oh, and also: my "meta" read on DkKoba is my business, no one gets to invalidate that, and vice versa. Also, my read on them isn't even based completely on meta, I haven't even seen them play scum so it's not like I'm not relying on that. It's based on the effort they've put towards the game and the nature in which they've re-evaluated their pushes. And I plan to go back and re-read them anyway.

[Apogee]

Yeah basic wagonomics say that if votato is scum than one of myself (Apogee), Joqiza, Ydrasse, DkKoba is his scum partner barring a) exceptional scum confidence/discipline or b) a genuine bus attempt (which I don't think would make sense in that situation).

Personally, I think that votato is likely scum, but I have a hard time telling between Joqiza, Ydrasse, DkKoba as a likely partner.

However, I'm not sure why we aren't focusing on votato right now. I'm all for pressuring joqiza if y'all think that it will produce useful reads, slips, tells, whatever, but pretty much all of you who've pressured him say that votato is his likely partner.

[joqiza]

Seriously does no one find this progression of events sus:

1. Maduisha: I think votato and joqiza are a team, so I'm going to vote joqiza
2. votato: I think Maduisha might be on to something, so I'm going to vote joqiza (?? LOL??)
3. Ydrasse: Maduisha and votato bring up good points, so I'm going to vote joqiza

votato why are you simply voting me without acknowledging that most of Maduisha's read is predicated on you being scum with me? And Ydrasse why did you simply sheep them without pointing out this contradiction?

[Apogee]

And that is why I am wondering why people aren't going after votato.

Isn't one of the oldest deflection/distancing/scumbuddy save methods in the book going "yes, my scumbuddy is suspicious, but this person is way worse"?

[votato]

VOTE: joqiza

[Apogee]

You were already voting joqiza...

[Apogee]

Oh I see how that could have been confusing -- I wasn't referring to votato/joqiza with that remark

[votato]

oh i still scumread maduisha, so its strange to follow the logic of the case, especially when yeah, she does also say that I'm scum. The problem is, even if I'm town, and even if she's scum, she raises valid points about you joq. and you havent answered them.

[joqiza]

she hasn't raised a single valid point about me and i've answered everything

[joqiza]

if you have specific things you're concerned about list them

[joqiza]

I went back through Maduisha's posts today and it's literally just repeatedly using the word fake to describe things that aren't fake.

[joqiza]

This is more out of frustration than actual read but VOTE: votato until I get an explanation for the way he's played today

[votato]

i might have signed up for too many games.

[joqiza]

no i'm not hammering votato jfc

Here is when he made clear the fact that he was

not

hammering Votato. I called this out, so he will make some hedging to make it look like he is doubting himself and analyzing when he is clearly not going to hammer Votato. We know this because Votato was also very relaxed at L-1 with no signs of thinking he is going down thanks to there being 0 intent to hammer for himself and his partner being the "main" hammer holder.

yeah, we know you're a mafia goon.

why did you say mafia goon here? like why specify the role

Here we can spot how he is faking his ISO read of Votato to make it look like he is "considering" things. How do we know that? Well, look at the post he is replying to. Where have we seen this before? Ah yes, he is leeching off of Quick's ISO read and grabbing the post he quoted in [1936] to make it look like he is investigating too. Fake push, fake question, fake interest.

4. im not interested in convincing you. you've decided to tunnel me. thats fine, i dont need to convince you since youre gonna just confirmation bias everything i say. i just need to convince 6 townies. or really just 4 townies.

here u r referring to midwaybear and saying that bear is "conf biasing" you which implies he is town, but u say you "just need to convince 6 townies" like if bear is 1 townie and there are 6 other townies that's 7 townies and that only leaves you as scum ???

Here he continues to do the same. Fake push to make it look like he is considering.

I mean this is technically correct in that I made it appear to the table after my ISO read that I was considering hammering votato when I wasn't going to. I made it explicitly clear on the same day when I said that I did it because I wanted to see how people, specifically Quick, would react. If Quick had flipped scum there we would've mined a lot of information out of that. More importantly, I was gauging Quick's reaction. At that point in time the choice for me was between: 1. Quick, or 2. a CFD on another player.

The thing about me taking it from a post from Quick's ISO is a straight up reach.

[votato]

the best point @joq is re your post 2121. on rereading i dont like maduishas case as much. I'm looking forward to DkK's ISO on you joq.
maduisha, could you link some completed games?

[joqiza]

Alright I kind of came into this thinking that quick vs votato might be TvT but I kind of FOS quick after this, like I'm just floored by how quickly he jumped onto the "scumslips" and how he basically wanted votato lynched before he could respond. I feel like anyone with any decent amount of experience should know that these sort of statements aren't really alignment indicative, both town and mafia do this kind of weird shit you see genuine certified scumslips very very rarely. and in fact it's funny because if you look in his iso one of the first posts he makes is this, so yah, he is aware.

I have only read about 8% of the game or less fwiw.

how can we take you seriously then? did you see a scumslip or something?

I pretty much never see Scum slips. I am pretty biased against them actually.

post edit: OK give me a sec

Now Votato is town and Quick is too! But he still gets to hammer a player he already said is town because he

magically

reached the conclusion that they're both town when there's no time to rearrange wagons and lynch someone else, and he knows everyone prefers a bad lynch to no lynch. Why hammer himself and get his hands dirty? Because if he leaves the hammer up to someone else, they might hammer our friend Votato and that's a big no-no, am I right?

anyway fellas i'm basically gonna hammer quick here in a bit i think my mind's pretty made up at this point. i went thru votato and I think he has some decent contributions today. I really like the push on maduisha starting 337, continuing in 478 and 487, kind of ending with 540 and 587. this push is a lot better and more thorough i feel like then what he was doing previously. now to be fair he did do this AFTER i pointed out why his earlier pushes were kind of weak, so he might've just adapted this game, but in any case he's certainly done more for us than quick has done. i feel like his responses to bear's case in 803 and 804 are decent too btw

And the conclusion of why Votato is town and a worse lynch than Quick is just bad. "I liked he pushed Maduisha so I'm gonna hammer the person that did not" yadda, yadda... if you wanted me pushed or lynched, why didn't you vote me

at all

during D1 while scumreading during the whole day, Joqiza? What kind of town strategy is this? You're not getting away with it for two days, if you start running away from my question you're claiming scum.

I think the fake hesitation is real and should be looked at closely during D2.

I was not part of the Quick wagon. I never advocated for that wagon or for a votato wagon lol. I was ended up forced to hammer between those two thanks to midwaybear pushing votato and DkKoba, Ydrasse, and Apogee all SRing Quick. I didn't SR clemency once, of course I was hesitant. Regardless of whether I thought it was TvT or not, if I couldn't get a counterwagon going I would've hammered between them anyway just to avoid an NL.

Maduisha I would have gladly voted you so so so many times yesterday but I don't believe in voting for appearances and multiple people TR you. If you are town and you cannot understand that then god help you

[votato]

ok joq could you provide a readlist?

[joqiza]

Maduisha: highly sus
Ydrasse: highly sus
votato: highly sus
Apogee: light TR
DkKoba: TR
enomis: don't have a read

I can't evaluate you/Ydrasse/Maduisha rn clearly, obviously at least one of you is town and I'd prefer to just talk things out w everyone so I can understand what is going on. Not all the arguments levelled at me rn are in good faith of that I'm certain

[DkKoba]

Im crossfaded and this day is a mess so far so ama i need more info

[DkKoba]

joqiza pls vote ydrasse with me bc i think its worth getting a push going on them

[DkKoba]

my order of reading ISOs is going to be
Ydrasse>maduisha >votato>joqiza>apogee
Enomis i already did so dont need to do them again but thats my priority of checking ISOs

[joqiza]

VOTE: Ydrasse

[joqiza]

If I'm still on L-1 tomorrow I'm going to claim

[votato]

UNVOTE: . im willing to let things develop before we hear any claims.