Newbie 2003: Earth [game over!]

[DkKoba]

i just wanted post 2500 hi

[Ydrasse]

thievery

[DkKoba]

ok this is random but i was thinking abou tthis thread and i was like .. who would as mafia also read that post as a coptell and i immediately was like... midwaybear would latch onto that.. took me too long to remember midway was dead..

[Datisi]

Official Vote Count 2.final

---

With 7 votes in play, it takes 4 to lynch.

Lynching

joqiza

(4): Maduisha, Ydrasse, DkKoba, joqiza

[LYNCH]

votato

(1): Apogee

Not Voting

(2): enomis, votato

Deadline:

(expired on 2020-05-24 12:30:00).

Mod notes:

• ...

[/area]

[Datisi]

day 2 lynch - joqiza

---

joqiza has been lynched Day 2. He was a

Mafia Goon

.

The sun sets, it is now Night 2. Sunrise in (expired on 2020-05-23 13:00:00).

[/area]

[Datisi]

night 2 kill - ydrasse

---

Ydrasse has been killed Night 2. She was a

Town Cop

.

The sun rises, it is now Day 3.

[/area]

[Datisi]

Official Vote Count 3.00

---

With 5 votes in play, it takes 3 to lynch.

Lynching

Everybody

(0): Nobody

Not Voting

(5): Apogee, Maduisha, votato, enomis, DkKoba

Deadline:

(expired on 2020-05-30 13:10:00).

Mod notes:

• ...

[/area]

[Apogee]

Well I missed a lot of excitement last night. Didn’t even consider Ydrasse as cop but makes sense in hindsight. And joqiza yikes I honestly didn’t see the scumminess from the EOD action that apparently wiser people did. Looks like it’s 4 townie 1 goon based on the nk now.

Post flip rankings

Most Likely Scumpartners: Votato DkKoba
Possible Partner: Enomis, Me
Almost certainly not: Maduisha

I have myself at possible because well I know I’m not Joqiza's partner but I’d question if no one else considers me because honestly looking at myself I could be convinced we were buddies. I have arguments against it of course (not trying some wack strat here) but it should, just like the other 3 possibilities, be considered.

Votato I’ll talk about below. DkKoba I think has to be a consideration with his “meta townlean” on joqiza and how they have played off each other but I’m not sure he is first in POE. Enomis is a possibility but if I’m reading his D2 right he doesn’t strike me as a likely scum partner for joqiza. 9/10 if we lynch votato and DkKoba I think we POE scum.

[Apogee]

Ok, some of his response is fair and I’ll especially credit you on the “scumslip” because (as I indicated) I don’t really believe it either.

Your point on the towncred is disingenuous: As best I can tell from Datisi’s vote counts (sorry I’m not combing the thread for every vote if there was a wagon that appeared and vanished in between let me know) you didn’t have a wagon on you at all until 600, a two person wagon on you until 700 (which was back down to a 1 person for a while) then yes, a three person wagon around 900 that progressed to L-1. Most of your towncred moments came before these, and while you were pressured I’m not sure you were pressured that much. I’ll even cut you a break on the earliest but still there are 3-4 moments.

Also your refugee in the wifom is still scummy. Address that for me?

Point 1 isn’t about you applying pressure, which you correctly conclude is good for town. It’s the high velocity jumping for eh reasons. How you vote between like post 400 and 900. You seem to hold contradictory beliefs. A bit of a callous disregard which could be scummy.

Also, you still have sheeped other people’s reads a fair amount it seems.

Of course, none of this really manners because now we have cold hard facts to analyze and I don’t know how to take Joqiza’s and your interactions. I do think you are more likely a scumpartner for him than enomis and therefore are in the POE sorry.

[Apogee]

Also this is not a great timing for it to happen and if d2 had gone to time like d1 this would have fallen mostly on a night phase but I’m going to have limited to no access to the internet from about midday today until midday monday, so I’ll have to miss out on a bunch of early day analysis. I’d ask that we don’t hammer anyone but I don’t know if I can expect that, so at least please don’t hammer me before I can return (if you all decide in my absence to wagon me which I would advise against but I can’t stop I suppose). I’ll probably be around to talk for like 3 hours then most likely not

@Mod: I will be v/la until midday (12 EST) monday

Got it. -D

[DkKoba]

well my wifom didnt work. I'm just going to hardclaim here for real:

I am town doctor and I was roleblocked so scum know who I am 100%

[DkKoba]

I'm going to be honest I was biased towards joqiza bc we're friends outside this site.

I'm not blaming her but ydrasse made joqiza look very towny when she started pushing her, because joqiza was right. The logic was bad. What she called out about joqiza wasn't actually correct. I thought you were PR Apogee honestly, I knew there was 1 between you and ydrasse. and I ended up reading ydrasse as a mafia PR based on her push. stupid small brain push.

[Apogee]

Alright let's do this, I went through the whole thread again, starting from the top, and I have some thoughts on everyone, here are the notes I've taken. I'll be around for a while on-and off today so please AMA.

Votato

Probably town but still sus in that they constantly start wagons and back off them before any real pressure is applied, their “reaction tests” lack any sort of conviction and any conclusion from them is reached far too easily. Push on Koba was OK but jsyk I think you need way more than that to determine Koba’s alignment. Randomly threw out an apogee/maduisha scumteam without bothering to rr and then immediately caved saying he picked randomly and “gotta generate that content.” By the way, I think it’s funny that as soon as I point out that there’s not enough content for me suddenly there’s like three people grandstanding about getting content, I don’t think that’s even necessarily scum indicative I just hate it lmao. I don’t think votato and midwaybear are a scum team based on their interactions. Voted me with absolutely zero conviction and then immediately unvoted me before I had even responded with anything. Probably still town but the “need to appear active” without contributing to a gamesolve is a red flag. Currently on the maduisha wagon I was waiting to see if they would jump off again but honestly at this point it’s just a behavior pattern and I don’t know how to read into it any further. Light townread

Enomis

Cites some basic mechanics in their intro post, I consider that NAI given it’s a newbie game. Questions both Apogee and Clemency immediately based on misconstruing their words, interpreting their statements in the most literal way possible, possibly a slight language barrier. Super questionable how they double down both on the scumslip and on pretty much everything DkKoba says, also their TR on Apogee makes absolutely no sense, I rr post #65, dude TRs Apogee because they are “genuinely scumhunting” because they are using the term “wolf” and newb town wouldn’t do that? Dafuq?? On Post #301 has an absolutely garbage teamread on me/Koba which I think he knows he can’t even commit to, let me ask you something, have you EVER seen one scum partner say “my partner is hard town I will never vote them until I die” on DAY 1 of a game where you have TWO mislynches? Answer is no, that is never a scumteam and any experienced player should know that. Remains obsessed with pushing clemency as of #303 for more nai statements after I already clarified why their logic on Clemency’s slip doesn’t make sense, really seems to be working backwards from a “Clemency is scum” which they’ve already decided on, so at best is confirmation bias, at worst is scum-motivated. Analysis: scum read

DkKoba

Seemed more friendly and reserved in the opening than I’ve seen them, I found that questionabl just based off personal meta. Immediately put enomis at L-2 in the opening stages of the game, also somewhat questionable, I think it was too early to put them at L-2 there because one more vote puts them at L-1 and they potentially have to claim but enomis was scummy so w/e. Wanted to start townblock which is probably town-indicative for Koba, I think scum!Koba just hardtunnels someone instead of trying to play diplomat. Also seems to be re-evaluating their scumreads, that’s towny. I was extremely cautious at first because some of their TRs seemed too confident, Clemency “townslipping” seemed a little bit too extreme and more importantly I was cautious w.r.t. their TR on me, however usually when you see pocketing it involves a town player TRing a scum and then scum reciprocating, but I refused to reciprocate and even pointed out the potential for pocketing and Koba responded with an even harder TR, galaxy brain energy honestly if scum. Lastly had drunk posts, that is town indicative for them, QED they are villager. Their meta on me is decent btw

Ok seems not much is going to happen while I am online but this might be the most important Joqiza point for determining pairings from the early game

[Apogee]

Oh for the love of ...

DkKoba it’s possible and fairly consistent IMO . I’m on mobile and about to be offline but IMO sans counterclaim the poe is as I outlined above. I want to hear from enomis and especially madiusha because they are probably town. When I am back I plan on doing a deep dive into associations with joqiza if that already hasn’t been done.

[Apogee]

I need other peoples takes on how likely DkKobas doctor claim is to really know what to make because it is certainly possible but I don’t really know for sure. Again, I haven’t felt DkKoba was scummy much of this game but I’m just a little worried by associations and PoE. After doing legwork it might become more clear

[DkKoba]

I agree with your take on maduisha being most unlikely. Joqiza looks to be setting her up as a null read to potentially push as a lynch.

I don't see joqiza being partners with you at all. There's something that really stuck out that I will share later.

enomis has been coasty and not done much actions. at this point I just want to policy lynch him because its not helping the game at all.

votato is obviously just weird. but also my 2nd choice for last scum.

[Apogee]

My hesitation on enomis comes from how he and joqiza went back and forth d1. Could it be distancing yeah of course but I’m not feeling it. I probably sound like a broken record but it’s hard for me to dive in too much right now but we go back and look I think that should be feasible.

[DkKoba]

Maduisha: highly sus
Ydrasse: highly sus
votato: highly sus
Apogee: light TR
DkKoba: TR
enomis: don't have a read

I can't evaluate you/Ydrasse/Maduisha rn clearly, obviously at least one of you is town and I'd prefer to just talk things out w everyone so I can understand what is going on. Not all the arguments levelled at me rn are in good faith of that I'm certain

[DkKoba]

he had a public conversation with enomis but never challenged him or pushed hard on him.

[DkKoba]

Alright, this is aimed for enomis. My earlier post today was rushed and probably incoherent so I want to try again.

First, I want to address the Clemency scumslip. My argument is that this was not a scumslip, it was a null-alignment gesture.

Clemency's posts:

#6: “the best player in this game is on your side tonight”
#9: “i cant believe you would vote me after i claimed town </3”

enomis's logic:

1) You said you claimed town
2) Your claim of town was "rejoice! the best player in this game is on your side tonight"
3) Meaning you need to know that I am town in-order to claim town (Since only I posted beside you when you claim town)
4) The only ones who knows I am town other than myself is scum.

The issue:

What doesn’t follow is #2 to #3, it’s cracked logic imo, clemency opens the game with saying he is on ‘your’ side the ‘your’ side doesn’t appear directed at particular, it seems perfectly reasonable to assume he just meant this as a general appeal to a town core that he doesn’t yet know. You could argue that he meant enomis specifically when he responds to him saying he claimed town, but that's a logical leap. To me, he’s just saying he claimed town by claiming to be on most people's side. His "claim of town" wasn't directed at any specific player.

I have tried multiple times to reread page 1 with your logic in mind and a scumslip and I can’t. I want to emphasize that

I don't know if clemency will flip scum or not

, but what i am certain of is that

if he does flip scum, this will not be the reason why.

Doubling down:

I have no issue with you bringing up this logic @enomis and questioning clemency with it in the meme part of the game, I just got red flags from #63 and #65. I feel like clemency has clarified his logic here, and additionally he has imo dropped a couple towntells. I don't get why you insisted here on holding on to the notion of his statement as a "scumslip," and additionally you don't seem to be updating your read on them with the new information on page 2.

I don't think noticing and bringing up these sorts of statements and questioning them as slips as bad, it's just I'm used to seeing scum players double down on this sort of small thing, interpret it in the most uncharitable way possible, and continually refuse to re-evaluate as an excuse not to be forced to fake analysis on the other content of the slot. When I see someone avoiding doing analysis, it's scummy!

Moving on:

The good news is I think enomis's post #119 is a lot stronger, here he elaborates on his thought process and provides a lot more substance on his Clemency read. I was scumleaning enomis before this tbh, but I think he brings up some legitimate reasons to question Clemency, particularly Clemency's sequence of posts: #30, #68, #73. I have mentioned my reasoning behind my TR on Clemency, but I am hesitant to mark him town for the simple reason that I haven't seen clemency's READS yet, and I don't make strong evaluations based off early-game tone.

For enomis, I don't think I have any further questions because we haven't seen anything else out of clemency, I guess I just want to make a general statement to the table that I think in order to towntell you need to analyze not just individual lines but the overall slot, and incorporate all the information you have available. And I'm fine with telling the wolves this, cuz even if you know what to do it's hard to do it well.

[DkKoba]

also in what universe does a joqiza/me scumteam kill midwaybear LOOOOOOOOOOOL

[DkKoba]

Dk I would put pressure on Apogee here but he mentioned Mother's Day in an earlier post so I think he should get a Mother's Day pass...... I'm gonna leave it for tomorrow. Apogee I want an updated reads list tho and a case on why you voted Clemency, I feel like I was promised it but you never delivered.

but unless?

[DkKoba]

im just confused why did ydrasse save votato with a guilty on joqiza, like yeah i was calling her scummy but my intent was to lynch votato.

[Apogee]

im just confused why did ydrasse save votato with a guilty on joqiza, like yeah i was calling her scummy but my intent was to lynch votato.

Explain this? I think ydrasse and madiusha were calling votato scummy yesterday and not trying to save him. Makes sense imo to out and go after the person you have confirmed.

Also, do you think how joqiza went on the enomis wagon mid day 1 could have been scum v scum

[DkKoba]

yes and I was going to go for votato too.