Mini Normal 2148 (Post Game)

[farside22]

So how is it we are less than a day away from the day ending and we aren’t even close to lynching someone??

Also not_mafia is bothering me.

I don’t really like Porken’s posts, but i‘M trying to give him a chance.

@farside: I don’t think scum!notty would stop a potential tunnel, but I feel like town!notty would notice that he’s following into his normal tunnel and to try to stop and let players rest feels town motivated. He is one of my stronger reads so i felt better ok giving my vote especially when my head wasn’t in this game or anywhere in general

You tell a player you believe they will continue to tunnel, so them stopping = town? That's like giving the scobby doo crew a clue and pointing to the killer.

And Mala's kinda right. It's time we start settling on a lynch, with 13 hours left in the day, and I don't think this day phase will go anywhere than Porkens, unfortunately.

Thus, VOTE: Porkens

Unless anyone has any reason to think this day phase could possibly lead to another lynch,

Probably not I see too many people just sitting to the side not trying to push anything at this point, not really a fan of voting someone I don't see as scum but I'll be back if a vote is needed there.

ebwop: Nah I'm feeling vot town in my bones. I would say mala is scum on the pork wagon

[notscience]

VOTE: porkens

Consolidating at this point

[notscience]

Farside I’m prettty sure she was right that I used to do it all the time and I actually want to try to work with her this game as evidenced in my iso so I didn’t wanna be brainlessly tunneling all game so I took a step back

[geraintm]

Neat.

I've already tried to get you to engage with my BM suspicions. You've ignored me. I also just expounded on them. You're ignoring that as well.

Just a minute. I will look over it.

in the corresponding scum slot

Also, I cannot express enough how bad it is to try to fill up scum team slots in D1. Associative suspicions are practically worthless in D1 without flips.

Things like this have worked for me before on D1. I can remember a few times I have done it before off the top of my head, but there probably are more somewhere.

viewtopic.php?p=10269994#p10269994

I made a hot take that all scum were in a group of 4 players, which actually ended up being correct, because all three scum were in that group of players.

Now granted, I replaced out of that game early, but when I get a strong intuition about scum on D1, my past games have proven that I am best to follow it.

Also did it in another game on D1 here
viewtopic.php?p=10373659#p10373659
And my later intuition that Kokichi was clearly the scum between the two after analyzing everyone on D1 was correct.

I can remember another game on another site that I had really really strong reads on all the scum on D1, so all I am saying is if I get really strong intuitions that something is the case on D1, I have yet to see/don't recall that it has been proven wrong. I have been consistent in how I have formed those reads too; it seems it has helped more than hurt town.

having seen nearly a whole day of stungun's posts, I can understand why he believes he is so good at findin scum on day 1. they have around so many ideas today that,like a stopped clock, they are bound to be right at some point.
just, I cannot work out which 95% of their posts I am meant to ignore to find the gold

[stungun0404]

Am I the only player you respond to? Lol, I notice that I have taken up half of your responses since 803. Why so much focus on me if you think I am town?

[stungun0404]

literally 11 of your last 21 posts were responses to me. are you focusing on me and no one else?

[geraintm]

literally 11 of your last 21 posts were responses to me. are you focusing on me and no one else?

I don't think anyone else is really talking to me much, s i'll reply when talked to

[Porkens]

And Mala's kinda right. It's time we start settling on a lynch, with 13 hours left in the day, and I don't think this day phase will go anywhere than Porkens, unfortunately.

Thus, VOTE: Porkens

Unless anyone has any reason to think this day phase could possibly lead to another lynch,

There is a 1 ONE vote difference between me and your biggest scumread but “unfortunately” that’s just insurmountable? Also, he says

nothing

about the substance.

VOTE: porkens

Consolidating at this point

Consolidate elsewhere, the idea that there can’t be any other lynch is false. Again, Dunn has 1 less vote than I do.


Lynching Dunn will tell us a lot. There are clear associativas. BM tarnishes this slot so badly what do you learn about anything? Keep me around you won’t regret it.

[Porkens]

literally 11 of your last 21 posts were responses to me. are you focusing on me and no one else?

I don't think anyone else is really talking to me much, s i'll reply when talked to

Why do you trust Dunn?

[stungun0404]

and anyways, my reads are usually but not always right geraintm when they are strong, but sometimes I move away from those correct and strong suspicions and incorrectly get caught up on town inconsistencies. i'm sure that happens to any townplayer though tbh.

it makes the game much easier when I can look at players from an "are they town?" perspective, and if I cannot make a logical case for that, then they are likely scum. that is something that has proven correct for me consistently.

i'd probably have to iso folks again to really truly get to the nitty-gritty of those feels this game, because there have been a lot of inconsistencies coming from a lot of different players.

[stungun0404]

Porkens, what do you think of GC's early pushes against your slot (Battle Mage) that I have quoted here.

Your predecessor, Battle Mage, seemed to think he was scum.

Spoiler: What do you think Porkens?

VOTE: Battle Mage

His vote on votato looks made up.

First, his vote:

Votato votes are lazy. I bet one of y'all are scum.

Challenge accepted!

VOTE: Votato

I like the meta analysis by stungun

, clearly nobody is getting behind Green Crayons, and I think I'm townleaning Dunnstral. And seriously, voting BM on Day 1? This dude has run out of ideas...

He reads votato as scum only because of your meta analysis. But your meta analysis specifically said it was a wash on alignment, and so wasn't AI:

While you may be fairly active in some of your scum games, this evidence does not suggest that in your town games you are always lurking at the start.

Thus, I don't think this initial analysis into your gameplay is very alignment-indicative, as it seems you are breaking pattern regardless of alignment.

So his votato vote pushes a wagon based on nothing AI. He does get in a sweet "lol ooOooOooOoo I'm teasing you with maybe I'm scum" jab, which is more likely to come from scum than town.


Then, this continued vote despite:

i have a little but i cant talk about it. by day 2 or 3 ill probably give some more details. as for the association you're drawing between me and dunn, stun, you're right that we aren't scumbuddies, but i dont think your reasons why are all that strong. plus the only reason you know that is cuz you and i are scumbuddies.

*** wrong thread.

Last time I saw something like this it flipped town, but what can ya do!?

He points to non-player-specific meta that would suggest that votato is town. But just lols over it and keeps his votato vote. His decision to pick and choose "meta" to justify whether votes should move is particularly glaring when you consider he uses meta a few posts later in Post 403 to argue votes on Dunn are misplaced.

Also took a weird stance on BM that his vote on Votato "looked made up" in 421, which does not exactly seem like the best reason to vote BM if you ask me. Also, I do not know if it is a natural town instinct to come to a conclusion that a vote "is made up", just seems like a forced scum conclusion, but maybe I am wrong there.

Maybe if you look harder, you'll see I've been suspecting Battle Mage for a while.

Maybe if you look *even harder*, you'll see why.

And lol @ my justification for voting BM apparently went completely over your head in your pursuit to vote me.

He seems mildly town.

Let’s focus on BM.

Who doesn’t have a legitimate scum read on votato—BM voted because of stun’s meta analysis that stun said was not AI—but BM voted votato anyway.

Red light scum alert.

Now this, votato, is scummy:

Again!? Beating a dead horse here pal. I suppose you wouldn't know if my scumread was legitimate or not, because you haven't bothered to ask me or probe my explanation, you've just set up an implausible strawman.

- I've raised this point several times, both to generally to the thread to explain my vote and to specific players to try to get them to engage with it. That's not "beating a dead horse," but he tries to discredit normal mafia play.
- I don't need to know whether his scumread was legitimate because he already gave his reason for voting you, and it was not an AI reason. Thus the reason as he stated was not legitimate. (lol and now he's taking his time to try to justify his vote to create a new reason)
- Calling strawman, when there's no straw man here, to deflect from his scumminess

He reads votato as scum only because of your meta analysis. But your meta analysis specifically said it was a wash on alignment, and so wasn't AI:

The fact Stungun doesn't think it's AI, doesn't mean I don't think it's AI. I believe I said, as above, "I like the analysis", as opposed to "I agree with the analysis in it's entirety and share Stungun's resulting conclusion". I did in fact think it was AI, and voted for that reason.

Why is it AI?

I'll answer that when I've caught up.

just lol

Adding onto this BM trying to come up with a real reason to justify a votato vote

is that BM shaded me for not trying to engage him for why he voted votato

so then when I point blank asked him about that reason

he said "hold on let me come up with a reason"

GC finds BM scummy because his vote on Votato looks made up, because BM said he liked my meta analysis on Votato which said what he has done so far is NAI, but because BM thought Votato was scummy for what I analyzed. So GC finds BM to voting Votato there not because he thinks Votato is truly scummy, but instead extending my NAI read on Votato to mean he is scummy?

Yeeeeeeeeeeeeeees, thank you.

In some ways, I can understand this logic here, but in other ways this seems a little bit of a stretch, so I'm conflicted looking at this reasoning?

BM could have just voted Votato on the basis of not seeing anything scummier to that point

, so I feel like the better argument would be that he's not properly scumhunting, and thus he is scum assuming your vantage point is town. He simply is feeding off of my read, and interpreting ~ to be scummy based off of that, using my analysis to both shield him and pocket me.

Good point, but complete hypothetical.

BM has since clarified that he thought your meta read was good, but instead of agreeing with NAI, he found it AI. So BM has wedded himself to saying that his basis for voting votato was because your meta read was actually AI.

That means, way back at the time he voted votato, he thought your meta analysis was AI.

So I challenged him on it. How is it AI?

BM's response: "um give me a minute"

Right here:

He reads votato as scum only because of your meta analysis. But your meta analysis specifically said it was a wash on alignment, and so wasn't AI:

The fact Stungun doesn't think it's AI, doesn't mean I don't think it's AI. I believe I said, as above, "I like the analysis", as opposed to "I agree with the analysis in it's entirety and share Stungun's resulting conclusion". I did in fact think it was AI, and voted for that reason.

Why is it AI?

I'll answer that when I've caught up.

just lol

If he already thought it was AI, he could just say why instead of delaying to come up with a reason.

That’s some weak tea. Vote BM. He’s obviously scum.

Yeah, that's strange, I'm ngl... I will need explanation for that.

my pizza had just turned up and I wanted to watch the football while I ate.

Poor old GC, clutching at straws a bit. If the posting slows a little bit, I'll catch up on some stuff shortly - there's a lot to catch up on across all my games so I'm not promising to respond to everything tonight.

Literally the time it took to write this post would have been the time BM needed to tell us his AI justification for voting votato.

Remember: BM said that he already reasoned why stun’s meta analysis was AI all the way back when BM voted votato. So BM should be able to just spit it out.

He hasn’t because he’s lying. You can’t spin stun’s NAI meta analysis into an AI meta analysis.

Lynch all liars. BM is scum.

I'd find it strange if BM flips scum.

Let's flip BM.

I think BM is more likely to flip scum than town. His explanation for reading scum's NAI meta analysis as AI is plausible on its face. In context though, that plausibility doesn't undermine the other suspicions that point to scum:

-He took forever to provide his AI justification, although he supposedly thought of it ages ago

- He took plenty of time to discredit my suspicions as strawmanning without actually just engaging with my suspicions and providing his AI justification, suggesting delay to come up with a plausible reason after the fact

- He's saying BOTH (1) he had other suspicions for voting votato so we shouldn't suspect him for this thin reasoning (supposed other reasons that he never voiced, so how are we supposed to know that?) AND (2) it was an early vote so we're expecting too much from him in terms of reasoning, which are contradictory defenses that defeat each other. EITHER we should give him a pass because he had other, stronger reasons to vote votato OR we should give him a pass because it was early D1 so he didn't need to have strong reasons to vote votato. It looks like scum slinging whatever defenses he can.

[Porkens]

The point seems valid if not belabored.

I concede that it does provide votato cover as well. Lots of people scumread votato and BM was low hanging fruit on that “wagon”

Then again I’m not convinced Bm actually scumread votato. His post aren’t indicative of someone paying terribly much attention.

[stungun0404]

Fair enough, but what about GC?

His push was very aggressive against you, and BM's against GC was also a little aggressive, which is why from my angle it makes the most sense if one of the slots was scum pushing the other one.

[Porkens]

Aggressive doesn’t = scum. I townread GC largely based on his behavior in regards to the SW debacle and how he responded to you shit case against him. The only thing I hard disagree with him about is his scumread of farside.

[stungun0404]

It isn't just the aggressiveness, it is the way both sides were pushing their cases that struck me as strange. Both sides seemed to me they were forcing things a little bit, which I don't think comes from a 'T vs. T' angle.

But alas, both farside and I have come to that conclusion of one of you two being scum.

Also, you seem to have me and bob (my biggest townread) in your scumpool, which makes me question why us two?

[Porkens]

My pool is a mix of three factors:

Ger+stun circa 274
Stun+Dunn+vot circa 389 (targeting GC)
Bob circa the first 30pages not expressing one firm read then calling Dunn town. Also votato and stun both have bob town.

[bob3141]

Neat.

I've already tried to get you to engage with my BM suspicions. You've ignored me. I also just expounded on them. You're ignoring that as well.

Just a minute. I will look over it.

in the corresponding scum slot

Also, I cannot express enough how bad it is to try to fill up scum team slots in D1. Associative suspicions are practically worthless in D1 without flips.

Things like this have worked for me before on D1. I can remember a few times I have done it before off the top of my head, but there probably are more somewhere.

viewtopic.php?p=10269994#p10269994

I made a hot take that all scum were in a group of 4 players, which actually ended up being correct, because all three scum were in that group of players.

Now granted, I replaced out of that game early, but when I get a strong intuition about scum on D1, my past games have proven that I am best to follow it.

Also did it in another game on D1 here
viewtopic.php?p=10373659#p10373659
And my later intuition that Kokichi was clearly the scum between the two after analyzing everyone on D1 was correct.

I can remember another game on another site that I had really really strong reads on all the scum on D1, so all I am saying is if I get really strong intuitions that something is the case on D1, I have yet to see/don't recall that it has been proven wrong. I have been consistent in how I have formed those reads too; it seems it has helped more than hurt town.

having seen nearly a whole day of stungun's posts, I can understand why he believes he is so good at findin scum on day 1. they have around so many ideas today that,like a stopped clock, they are bound to be right at some point.
just, I cannot work out which 95% of their posts I am meant to ignore to find the gold

Germa we are at the eleventh hour of the day. With no lynch approaching and yet you are still on your vanity vote. You keep saying shogun is wrong but who do you think is the best lynch today. Because as it stands we are a poaching the deadline and porkens is the lead lynch. Followed by dun and green.

Do you see a no lynch as better than lynching Porkens?

As if you are town that what your lack of anything but vanity vote is contributing too.


As most of your posts have been about how you don't like shoguns pushes but you have not come up with any of your own. So who do you want to lynch today? That is a realistic prospect.

[bob3141]

I ask as at the moment i'm in a slight town reading mala. In my experience scum tends to avoid jumping on rvs wagons when they have already stacked up 3 votes. Either mala is scum and unafraid of the spotlight or as i feel at the moment a fellow townie that simply does not have anything to fear in the first place.

Only seen twice scum on 4thed place on rvs wagon. One was when scum was being rvs wagoned and the other was a scum player that spent much of the rest of the game jumping on wagons.


And mala comments on hk feel that it matches that pattern as well. Of a anotehr townie that inst afraid to get their neck stuck in and let thier views be known.

In my experience scum dont like being caught on large wagon in vs.

Take my last completed mini. Although i was on losing side if you looked back at day one. scum rvs voted me and as soon as i picked up my 4th vote. That Scum player was teh first to jump off. And infact tried to distance them selves from that wagon.

[Clarification:]

Expect you gave a strong case for why such a behavior is scummy and even provide evidence that scum tends to not commit to higher bandwagons in random voting stage. I'm aware it isn't identical, but my situation has aspects of that which to my photoreceptors indicates there should be some feeling one way or another based on my unvote.

I said theorically I'm scum from your point of view due in part by your own admission you were confused to why I am asking you this line of queries. I don't particularly care what the actual alignment is, but rather your thought process behind it in order to gague your master malakitten read.

[Demand:]

Look at that specific interaction of me unvoting. You given me the range I fall in, but only off the logic of me misconducting processing your point. Disregard that and analyze that temporal moment in space. What range would you rank that unvote to be in?

Your vote change from NS seems rather logical and well considered. It doesn't look to me like rash scum trying to get off. As i would have expected your vote change if you were scum to be more to the point. Abrupt even, while not really even making much acknowledging the change.

If there is scum on that rvs wagon of NS then my gut feeling is that if my read on you is right that you would have beaten them to the chase.

As far my slight town reads are you and mala. So if that rvs wagon wasn't all town then scum are likely in dunstral and pepper. Dunstals change was just sudden. Following the pushes of far and NS but with little extra input given. While peppers was little better but in reaction to Dunstals mala vote.

Now the question is. Was that rvs wagon all town. Which i have seen quite a few times and happens more than not.

Looking back at this interaction, I *really* don't like how HK baited bob into explaining to the town why bob saw HK's actions as town.

HK, I'd love to hear how your prompting supposedly came from a town POV.

303

This point as already been brought up and explained days ago.

And according to his logic presented about RVS wagons (in the quotes you left out) it would of prompted a scum read on me.

You never explained how a read on mala somehow would as you say prompt a scum read of your slot. A read based on the fact that scum rarely in my experience jump on rvs wagon when it already has 3 votes. And are in fact more likely to jump off then.

For some reason you kept trying to draw parallels between a wagon in another game I mentioned. Where 3 players had voted me outside of rvs and a scum player who only had rvs vote on me jumped off. That somehow mavs unvote directly parreled with yours. That an unvote of a legacy rvs vote that had been caught up in wagon on a townie. That was only apparent on day 3 and that I actually found townie at the time. Somehow directly compared to yours. A vote that was placed during rvs and a vote that was moved shortly after rvs. Why would you expect me to scum read you at the time if you are town. when i never scum read mav at the time.



Also why did you think at the time that the first thing that i would assume is that scum must be on the wagon. Feels like a loaded perspective. Instead you start with a leading question of why I don't scum read you. Looking back if you were coming from townie POV i would have expected you to simply ask is there anyone on that wagon you scum read. Instead you tried to make it all about you.

Not really because I did explain it.

As stated, i found the logic to be somewhat applicable to me because of how I understood your underlying logic: scum is less likely to want to be put into the spotlight via their RVS vote and tends to avoid being in that position.

I also admitted in 303 that I fucked up and made the reaction test that went alongside the question leading.

Now can you answer the question about you ATE leading farside?

What ate?

[stungun0404]

My pool is a mix of three factors:

Ger+stun circa 274
Stun+Dunn+vot circa 389 (targeting GC)
Bob circa the first 30pages not expressing one firm read then calling Dunn town. Also votato and stun both have bob town.

274 was not serious at all; it was a total joke. His previous post made me laugh. I would definitely not base anything off of that--because it is not by any means an AI vote flip. Anyways, there was no support for the gera wagon anyways, so it seemed to be a lost cause.

Circa 389: I'm not quite sure why that raised red flags for you either

Bob has asked incredibly insightful questions and made numerous original observations that to me clearly suggest he is coming from a town perspective. It is clear he is scumhunting. And why are you basing your read of someone based off who others have as town, and thus making them scum? That's not a compelling reason for finding someone to be in your scumpool.

[stungun0404]

I mean, I flipped from one super inactive poster who was not posting much to another super inactive poster at the time who was posting even less than geraintm.
I think Votato only had 3 posts at that point in time, so we sorely needed him to get in the thread and post, and votes are a way to get someone to talk. Votato did just that after we began voting him.

[votato]

im pretty sure that it wasnt the votes that made me show up, it was the prod.

[stungun0404]

Yeah that could be true, but those votes can motivate someone to want to contribute even more once they do return to the thread because it puts pressure on them.

[Porkens]

Hmm, one more thought I'd like to put out there right now.

I think it is highly unlikely scum is aiding us towards a lynch right now given that the wagon of Porkens has only 3 votes, and I think if they were really pushing someone, there would be a majority with more than 3 votes right now.

Thus, it is highly unlikely there is more than one scum on the Porkens lynch right now, and if I am reading this right they may all be town (Mala, bob, Vot? (still have a slight question mark there, but this does provide a little reason to believe he is town).

Funny, I count three scum on my wagon

[stungun0404]

If you're town, I think you are really really misguided Porkens to be quite frankly.

[HK 50]

Oh people are saying eleventh hour for the literal sense and not the metaphor. I thought we had an extra day.

I'm at doctors and havent read much currently, but I'll consolidate where I'm needed to ensure a lynch (even if I disagree).