Micro 952 - The Coalition: ItGBSMoD [game over!]

[Datisi]

Vote count 1.22

with 9 votes in play, it takes 5 to make a decision. day 1 ends in (expired on 2020-07-07 13:00:00)

coalition

PookyTheMagicalBear [5]:

Deimos27, SleeperSoul, DonCorleone, PookyTheMagicalBear, Klick

Clover Ebi [5]:

Clover Ebi, DkKoba, Deimos27, Klick, DonCorleone

DkKoba [5]:

Wug, Klick, DkKoba, Clover Ebi, PookyTheMagicalBear

Deimos27 [4]:

Deimos27, Klick, Wug, SleeperSoul

Alduskkel [4]:

Alduskkel, Klick, SleeperSoul, DkKoba

Klick [4]:

Klick, SleeperSoul, Clover Ebi, DonCorleone

SleeperSoul [3]:

Deimos27, SleeperSoul, Klick

Wug [1]:

Wug

DonCorleone [0]:

lynch

SleeperSoul (1):

Deimos27

Wug (1):

DonCorleone

PookyTheMagicalBear (1):

Alduskkel

not voting (6):

Klick, Clover Ebi, SleeperSoul, PookyTheMagicalBear, Wug, DkKoba

flavour

mod notes

• Play nice.

[DkKoba]

there's just something I can't put my finger on that tips me off about you and I probably would have been able to identify it had I not tipped my hand early and made the correct push but I think you are playing Too Good To Be True in a sense. Prove me wrong by all means but your play has tipped me off in the way that CultD3 did not.

[DkKoba]

Substantiating my coalition reads from before post 417. Listed from strongest to weakest:


*****Pooky*****:

Spoiler:

let's win this first day boys

get it done

I think we have a 85% chance of winning this game outright if townies act really townie



let's do it

Same plan as me.

DC pretty susp

a real townie would've said yes

Cute little quips like this remind me of town!Pooky from the lovers game.

I think there are 2 high-ev methods to play day 1.

1) we figure out 5 definite townies, throw em in the coalition - win the game.

2) we throw the 5 worst players in the coalition - if they're scum we will kick their asses in the real game cuz they're bad.

The first plan makes perfect sense. I think the second plan is bait for scum to hang themselves with.

we also won't know how many scum are in the coalition yes? So that's a bad plan there pooky.

50% of my mafia play is making bad plans and seeing who figures out they are terrible.

Votato a real G here

Pooky acknowledges his scumbait plan. town points for both votato and pooky.

Pooky, you ignored my request for a fight, now you're ready for DC's boring plan.... wtf?

I'm reading you as town why would I fight you

I mean, we town read eachother while 'fighting' last game.... So him not wanting to do it this game came off as AI. you think it's NAI?

For it to be a true fight, there must be consequences - life and death -lynch or let live. Without the danger there can be no information gained.

A quick, calm, logical town!rebuttal. I think pooky would have gotten more excited at the opportunity to pocket me by fighting if he was scum.

yea you'd be pretty terrible as scum ngl

PREACH!

This is where I become pretty much locktown on pooky. The next post is Deimos's first long quotey townie post, afterwards pooky responds by showing he's on the same page about me.

sleeper has to be town

if he was scum he would've told us all about it by now

*****Deimos27*****:

Spoiler:

Anyone wanna form a townblock?

He has the same plan I do.

deimos my number 1 townread right now

he's so clueless he has to be town

Pooky is 'brutaly honest' in defense of him. The honesty makes pooky and deimos seem town.

DC, how about you play the game like normal.
And you actually case your solve.
And people sheep you only if they agree with you?

This comes accross as very serioustownie to me.

DC, how about you play the game like normal.
And you actually case your solve.
And people sheep you only if they agree with you?

I prefer option a) I solve the game and everyone sheeps me and then I get lynched upon BoP if I’m wrong

Whats the matter Deimos, worried?

Worried about trusting the game to one player who I know nothing of? Yes, naturally.
I don't have such blind faith in you, nor lack of self-esteem for myself, that I would readily agree your strategy is higher EV than a cooperative, interactive one, where I still get to rely on my own judgment.

we arent gonna discuss day 2 because

it could help scum

to discuss it now.

If this is actually true, town points for votato

... what?

HEAL: Deimos

HEAL: Alduskkel

HEAL: Clover

HEAL: Sleeper

HEAL: Tux

thats an interesting list. to me none of those people are obvtown. maybe deimos? but no its too early to say for deimos. actually, deimos is leaning the other way at this early stage.

Pretty significant progression to go from Deimos is maybe obvtown to Deimos is leaning "the other way" (I assume that means scum). Walk me through your thought process there?

we arent gonna discuss day 2 because it could help scum to discuss it now.

How so?

explaining that would help scum. you trying to bait me into explaining it makes me think you're scum.[/quo*te]

blink

...Huh? I am just-huh?! You think talking about day 2 helps scum and because I asked for more detail why I'm scummy for it... am I getting that all right?

Yes, that's exactly right, and his argument was pretty straightforward so I dislike this seeming indignation.

actually if I count myself as town then everyone else has exactly 75% chance of being town. I calculated this yesterday.

Also, according to my calculations, there are 28 possible scum pairs in this game if I count myself as town.

And what value does this latter calculation provide you? What is the value of outing it?

Deimos makes his first superDUPERserioustownie post. At this point I am reading him as town.

This some kind of metaread? I get gutpings from like every one of his posts.

Deimos expresses doubt on pooky's confidence on me, like a good townie should.

*****votato*****:

Spoiler:

dc are you scum?

This rubs

me

as town votato, probably 'should be' NAI

we also won't know how many scum are in the coalition yes? So that's a bad plan there pooky.

votato recognizes that pooky's scumbait plan is 'bad'.

we also won't know how many scum are in the coalition yes? So that's a bad plan there pooky.

50% of my mafia play is making bad plans and seeing who figures out they are terrible.

Votato a real G here

Pooky acknowledges his scumbait plan. town points for both votato and pooky.

Initial tinfoil-hat solve: pooky and votato are pocketing me.

votato pocketed me in the lovers game

Sleeper you're doing pretty well for your first scum game

Sounds like town!votato wary of me pocketing him.

have you already sorted me pooky? or do i need to do more?

Is this real? As in do you think pooky should be able to have a read on you already?

yes.

I agree with votato. I dunno about 'should be able to', but it certainly seems plausible.

i have already sorted pooky with 90% accuracy.

I buy this.

Also a question I was thinking about pregame and would like some opinions on: Say we fail this day one. Is it best to lynch inside the Coli day 1 or go outside it to see if-you know what the more I type out this post the more stupid I feel nevermind
pedit: I can't tell if this is a joke

we arent gonna discuss day 2 because it could help scum to discuss it now.
its serious.

I agree with votato here.

HEAL: Deimos

HEAL: Alduskkel

HEAL: Clover

HEAL: Sleeper

HEAL: Tux

thats an interesting list. to me none of those people are obvtown. maybe deimos? but no its too early to say for deimos. actually, deimos is leaning the other way at this early stage.

Seems townie to me. Logical post from concerned a townie.

you trying to bait me into explaining it makes me think you're scum.

Sounds like something I would say.

Something I'd say as town.

yes. talking about scum's optimal strategy only helps scum at this stage. insisting that we discuss scum's optimal strategy and in fact trying to goad me into explaining what i think that strategy is, is scummy.

Another logical concernedtownie post.

*****DonCorleone*****:

Spoiler:

Have you read any of the previous editions of coalition?

There’s 4 and the only one town lost was the one where the coalition failed

This is a good, townie question and followup.

How about this: I read the game instead of playing, once I get to 4 townreads we make them + me the coalition and if I’m wrong you lynch me?

I did say the plan was 'boring' but if DC really is good at sitting back and reading like it seems he is, then this is a townie plan similar to mine, except my plan was to talk a lot more.

Okay.

Sleeper is town.
Clover is town.
Pooky is lightly town.
Votato is lightly town.

Aldus is null.
Bugspray is null.

Deimos is lightly scum.

Tux may be scum.

At the time I liked this list because I'm on the top, of course . I'm reading deimos as town at this point but it only recently 'flipped' so I can understand DC's scum lean on deimos. Overall, this post is a major factor in my town lean on DC. The only thing I'm not sure about is the clover read. I had a null read on clover at the time. But as I am looking to substantiate my coalition reads, I haven't really seen anything scummy from clover jumping out at me so far. Also I haven't really been looking at clover, I intend to do so after this long post is completed.

ME:

Spoiler:

Okay, that's my reads substantiated, now I will finish catching up on everyhing.

I do want to dissect this. I have several issues with this analysis. Idk. maybe I'm crazy. I just think this isn't an honest analysis at all and relies a lot on older posts rather than showing solidified reads of the coalition based on later posts.

[Alduskkel]

Limited access next 24 hours

Got it. -D

[Deimos27]

there's just something I can't put my finger on that tips me off about you and I probably would have been able to identify it had I not tipped my hand early and made the correct push but I think you are playing Too Good To Be True in a sense. Prove me wrong by all means but your play has tipped me off in the way that CultD3 did not.

It's absurd that you think you have a meta read on me based on a sample size of one town game. Take a look at my scumgame!

[DkKoba]

[Wug]

okay i tried to read through the 20somethings and i think it made me dumber

HEAL: deimos
i like his read of my read of ald's read

[DkKoba]

there's just something I can't put my finger on that tips me off about you and I probably would have been able to identify it had I not tipped my hand early and made the correct push but I think you are playing Too Good To Be True in a sense. Prove me wrong by all means but your play has tipped me off in the way that CultD3 did not.

It's absurd that you think you have a meta read on me based on a sample size of one town game. Take a look at my scumgame!

You've made claims about things you do as scum in this thread which I find disingenuous. Perhaps I lack the words to explain ~why~ I think you are not town but I have this nagging suspicion in my head and cannot in good faith include you in a coalition with me.

[DkKoba]

okay i tried to read through the 20somethings and i think it made me dumber

HEAL: deimos
i like his read of my read of ald's read

[Deimos27]

I'm not gonna dig up those examples while phoneposting, but I will happily do so on Saturday when I get back to my computer. Everything I've said I've done as scum is present in Open 778.

[DkKoba]

I don't care about comparing this game to that one I care about what your own stances are and your reads on other's actions I can surely use that as a supporting argument but regardless I'm not interested in you atm. I am much more concerned about Soul atm.

[Deimos27]

You said you thought I was disingenuous in my comments about what I've done as scum. I am saying that I have in fact done the things I've claimed to have done, and I am in fact using myself as anecdotal evidence of a scum paradigm.

[Deimos27]

I thought 723 was one of Sleeper's better posts, so I do look forward to your analysis of it.

[Wug]

okay i tried to read through the 20somethings and i think it made me dumber

HEAL: deimos
i like his read of my read of ald's read

fake

[DkKoba]

okay i tried to read through the 20somethings and i think it made me dumber

HEAL: deimos
i like his read of my read of ald's read

fake

the "what the fuck" was more to how you worded it made no sense to me

[DkKoba]

I thought 723 was one of Sleeper's better posts, so I do look forward to your analysis of it.

What was good about it?

[DonCorleone]

Wug, are you an alt?

[Deimos27]

It elucidates the reasoning for his initial coalition. I don't think the analysis is particularly

good

, but I can see why a player like Sleeper would

think

that these are good reasons. This was like the first time he made a long analysis post, and it reads as genuine to me, even if the subject matter is quite outdated.

[Wug]

Wug, are you an alt?

why does this matter

[Deimos27]

The main thing that's been bugging me about Sleeper is consistent tonal scumpings. I don't recall getting any from that post. Just noobtown vibes.

[DonCorleone]

Because I was waiting to see if anyone was actually interested in my reasoning. And at the end of the day, town makes mistakes too and assuming someone does something that is illogical from your point of view is automatically scum is bad play.

You’re right about this, but ability to explain motives isn’t necessarily a good reason to TR someone nor is it necessary for someone to be town. I think I’m often as able to explain my thoughts as scum if not more so, whereas when I’m town there’s more going on and it’s actually harder sometimes

[DonCorleone]

Wug, are you an alt?

why does this matter

It matters to me?

[Wug]

Wug, are you an alt?

why does this matter

It matters to me?

[DonCorleone]

Because it’s helpful to me to know how much experience you have with playing mafia I.e. are you a newbie or an experienced player obscuring their identity?

[DonCorleone]

Strongly leaning alt because it took me like 3 months to figure out how to go GIFs on this forum