Mafia of Revelations ~ Game Over!

[Auro]

Anyway, Llamarble, I'll hash out my reads a little more: let's get on the same page at least on the people I townread. If you think any of my reasoning for those reads is insufficient, please tell me

[Auro]

But context is important, and usually the cases people make are more hints at what bothers them that other people placing themselves in the context can either agree or disagree with

I understand, but that's why I said it's sufficient to see where they were seriously voting and wagoning instead.

Some people in current site meta outright say "cases are scummy" which is very interesting even if it sounds unintuitive.

[Porkens]

I am aware my characterization was an imperfect condensation; thought it might trigger you to elaborate a bit more on the specifics of what you liked but wasn't sure.

I don't dislike that he joined a D1 bw for momentum. I think wagons in D1 are important and I don't think it's AI to help generate/propagate a D1 wagon for wagon analysis benefits later on.

That he then turned around not too much later and said "actually I read the bw target as town" presents a pretty open play style (as he's done with his other reads), but (1) his willingness to recognize that it's mostly gut (in contrast to his paragraphs of town reads on others) and (2) that it it's an immediate whiplash from his bw vote, speaks town to me--these are "contradictions" (for lack of a better term, as I just woke up and my mind is foggy) that a scum would rather just avoid than need to justify.

There you go. And no, that type of observation about VP Baltar is not inferable from current play.

You will not like any vote of mine - either it will be a difficult read and thus comfortable, or an easy read who you find towny, or an "easy read that's scummy" (to you) that's, again, comfortable for me.

See: you're fitting my play to a scum agenda, without actually solving my play. You're adding the "what would I do" lens to every action of mine.

Are you accusing me of confirmation bias? Because sure, I'm experiencing some of that, on top of simply wanting to be correct, to see the red flip justify my mental pattern match.
A certain amount of confirmation bias and excessive confidence are also necessary - it's important for me to influence the lynch instead of letting scum have 4 players worth of say in it.
But that being said, making sure the actions of the player I want to lynch are reasonable from scum are how I escape the confirmation bias if I do have it wrong.
And I haven't seen a reason to escape my bias.

And it is 100% possible to at least vaguely estimate the difficulty of lynching different players.
There's both a general order of lynch difficulty and an order of mislynch difficulty and I don't think either is hard to approximate.
You can figure out wagon-stickiness too. Generally an even keeled, low-moderate effort player who won't explode at people for wagoning them is a more viable D1 mislynch.
Especially if they aren't extra pro town or highly charismatic.

VP seems like a moderately difficult mislynch, but if people do decide he's scummy I don't think he'll produce the kind of ultratowniness moments that would make people flashwagon somebody else at deadline.
Auro also seems like a pretty difficult mislynch; is active and transparent enough that if he's town it would have shone through by now.
Hoopla and Reck are very difficult to lynch as either alignment.
Starbuck is the type to potentially get lynched, but is also volatile enough that for this particular game the wagon doesn't look like it will amount to much.
ABR is similar to VP, maybe a little more likely to go down, a good player but difficult enough to read that people might get him wrong D1 and very unlikely to ultratown and shake a wagon off.
MT seems somewhat mislynchable, but appears to have moderate volatility.

etc.

Die.

VOTE: Auro

What the actual fuck are you doing? I just read this whole fucking game and get more and more excited that, shit, ABR has a live one! We're gunna fucking Lynch scum day 1 in a huge awesome game! And then I get to the last page and YOU UNFUCKING VOTE THE WAGON THAT YOU HAVE BEEN DRAGGING UP THE MOUNTAIN FOR 18 FUCKING PAGES BECAUSE AURO TILTED YOU? ARE YOU FUCKING KIDDING ME?

GET YOUR GOD DAMN VOTE BACK ON VPB YOU DO NOT GET TO ABANDON THIS.

VOTE: VPB

[Porkens]

Also, if you guys lynch VPB after me and he flips town: quicklynch ABR.

as for YOU, when the FUCK did you start reading VPB as town?

[Auro]

I didn't, read properly?

[Llamarble]

UNVOTE:
What did I just read

[Porkens]

Then why are you against his Lynch?

[Porkens]

Those quotes are artifacts of my read through and have noting to do with the written statement btw

[Auro]

Then why are you against his Lynch?

I'm not against his lynch I was about to vote there till ABR's threat and I found it more amusing not to.

[Porkens]

Well stop indulging yourself and fix your vote.

[Llamarble]

Those quotes are artifacts of my read through and have noting to do with the written statement btw

May I ask why / how they got quoted to begin with? Were those posts particularly interesting?

[Auro]

Anyway, Llamarble, I'll hash out my reads a little more: let's get on the same page at least on the people I townread. If you think any of my reasoning for those reads is insufficient, please tell me

@Llama: I would like it if you can prioritize this, since I'll prolly pop off for the day in a while (irl busy)

[Auro]

Well stop indulging yourself and fix your vote.

Given you read through the game and your major reason for voting there is because "ABR said so", and let's say I'm also voting there, and he flips town: who are your suspects?

Or am I mistaken in my assumptions?

[Porkens]

Sure:

Spoiler:

I am aware my characterization was an imperfect condensation; thought it might trigger you to elaborate a bit more on the specifics of what you liked but wasn't sure.

I don't dislike that he joined a D1 bw for momentum. I think wagons in D1 are important and I don't think it's AI to help generate/propagate a D1 wagon for wagon analysis benefits later on.

That he then turned around not too much later and said "actually I read the bw target as town" presents a pretty open play style (as he's done with his other reads), but (1) his willingness to recognize that it's mostly gut (in contrast to his paragraphs of town reads on others) and (2) that it it's an immediate whiplash from his bw vote, speaks town to me--these are "contradictions" (for lack of a better term, as I just woke up and my mind is foggy) that a scum would rather just avoid than need to justify.

Pretty sure this was a misclick, can't find anything interesting there.

There you go. And no, that type of observation about VP Baltar is not inferable from current play.

You will not like any vote of mine - either it will be a difficult read and thus comfortable, or an easy read who you find towny, or an "easy read that's scummy" (to you) that's, again, comfortable for me.

See: you're fitting my play to a scum agenda, without actually solving my play. You're adding the "what would I do" lens to every action of mine.

Are you accusing me of confirmation bias? Because sure, I'm experiencing some of that, on top of simply wanting to be correct, to see the red flip justify my mental pattern match.
A certain amount of confirmation bias and excessive confidence are also necessary - it's important for me to influence the lynch instead of letting scum have 4 players worth of say in it.
But that being said, making sure the actions of the player I want to lynch are reasonable from scum are how I escape the confirmation bias if I do have it wrong.
And I haven't seen a reason to escape my bias.

And it is 100% possible to at least vaguely estimate the difficulty of lynching different players.
There's both a general order of lynch difficulty and an order of mislynch difficulty and I don't think either is hard to approximate.
You can figure out wagon-stickiness too. Generally an even keeled, low-moderate effort player who won't explode at people for wagoning them is a more viable D1 mislynch.
Especially if they aren't extra pro town or highly charismatic.

VP seems like a moderately difficult mislynch, but if people do decide he's scummy I don't think he'll produce the kind of ultratowniness moments that would make people flashwagon somebody else at deadline.
Auro also seems like a pretty difficult mislynch; is active and transparent enough that if he's town it would have shone through by now.
Hoopla and Reck are very difficult to lynch as either alignment.
Starbuck is the type to potentially get lynched, but is also volatile enough that for this particular game the wagon doesn't look like it will amount to much.
ABR is similar to VP, maybe a little more likely to go down, a good player but difficult enough to read that people might get him wrong D1 and very unlikely to ultratown and shake a wagon off.
MT seems somewhat mislynchable, but appears to have moderate volatility.

etc.

Yeah, this one I had a cartoon style double take. I was gunna ask something like "Does this way of thinking help you find scum?" but then I admitted to myself that I do this kind of 'who could I get wagoned/lynched' as town pretty often so I decided it was NAI.

Die.

VOTE: Auro

[/quote]

This one obviously was pertinent.

[Porkens]

No my major reason was NOT "because ABR said so."

I said "ABR caught a live one."

I just finished reading to this point and I have notes that I'll turn into a reads list now, but that unvote really tweaked me so I'm just spewing.

Somewhere, vaguely, in the back of my mind, I remember someone (spyrex?) telling me that when someone gets run up to l-1 or l-2 but then the wagon falls apart, it gets a lot harder to wagon them a second time and scum can use this by bussing a partner to the edge and then letting the wagon dissolve.

[Auro]

Interesting analysis. What happens when it's a town wagon that gets run up to L-1? As someone who thinks L-x wagon cycling is a really good strategy, I'm curious.

I had asked for your analysis if he flips town. So if he flips scum, you'd think there were bussers on his wagon?

[Llamarble]

I assume these are the ones to review.

The Solve

Albert B. Rampage: Arrogance and taking control are an unnecessary call to attention in a gamestate where he'd be quite comfortable as scum.
Blair: General behavior in a player-list that doesn't award tunnels

Auro

: Accessed role PM; town.
Hoopla: Uniquely townreads me but also second-guesses it when the rest of town shouts that I'm scum; so there's no intent of buddying (even when I respond very positively to her generally in game).
Llamarble: Earnestness.
Porkens: I believe that "clueless" is not a way that Porkens would approach as scum.
Starbuck: The emotive reaction to the push on her, and subsequent relief at being termed a false positive both read town.
Untrod Tripod: Brazen admission of having nothing to add and call-out of the D1 solvers.
Green Crayons: One of the holistic townreads I have, rather than specific tells.
xRECKONERx: The call to cut out spam, and quick to recognize biases from playstyle (as covered earlier)

I've listed some of my reasons for townreading certain people with what I found significant and AI from them. It's not ordered by strength of read.
Now, who am I scumreading...? HMMMM
Let them live in suspense for a while

ABR - Arrogance and taking control could be attempts to play to his meta; do you think this is a town version of that?
On the other hand I've tended to agree with the direction he's trying to push things in.
Blair - Tunneling also could be an attempt to play to her meta; I don't think she'd adjust whether she tunnels based on playerlist as much as feeling within the game.
Auro - ok
Hoopla - This sounds like a town thing for her to do, but also doesn't really seem sufficient by itself. Scum do townread town, and they do waffle on it when others disagree with them and try to lynch the townie (unless they decide to white-knight).
Me - Earnestness is a fair overall summary of what makes me town
Porkens - why wouldn't he? But I'll take it; it could be a sufficient argument you believe in. And is a bit more original than the other reads here.
Starbuck - yeah, about right. I think this is also what scum-you comes up with.
UT - This one is good. Not sure I agree, but I can believe you believing it
GC - Ok
Reckoner - I'm guessing you found the way he did these things town, rather than the fact that he did them. I think this or something like it is also what scum-you comes up with.

Your list isn't ringing scum alarm bells for me, but it also doesn't seem super difficult to fabricate.
Most of these could be the result of 5 minutes or less ISOing the player. Maybe minus Hoopla, but that seems like a memory from her interacting with you earlier.

[Llamarble]

I just finished reading to this point and I have notes that I'll turn into a reads list now, but that unvote really tweaked me so I'm just spewing.

Sounds good to me.
It's a bit of a shock when somebody comes back from a couple days of lower activity to GO ALL OUT on the player who happens to already have the biggest wagon, but if you have an internal "if we don't get them the first runup we'll never get them" then I get it.

I unvoted because I lost count and didn't particularly want to leave Auro holding the hammer having already expressed intent to maybe vote VPB.

[Auro]

Don't worry about sorting me based on that list; given I'm the probable lynch today if VPB isn't lynched I just want to achieve consensus with you there.

ABR: Yes, because general gamestate indicates it was unnecessary as far as I can tell: unless he forces the chain lynch beyond D2 with VP flipping town, in which case there should be scrutiny on who other people were trying to push. He had already declared he doesn't read the first X pages of the game, so why bother trying to fake meta so sincerely otherwise?
Blair: I don't think I'd characterize Blair's meta as tunnel-y. The cost-benefit doesn't cut it when it comes to behaviors you do as town that are unrewarded in the player-list, and she certainly seems adept enough to work on in-game feedback to tweak her game - agree? You'd want to mimic things you do as town so you get townread, and if you're getting disliked for that, the value of your mimic goes down greatly.
Hoopla: Review the manner in which she did all of these once, and would you see my perspective then? I think a player such as Hoopla would know it's a pretty bad look to settle on "since people are pushing maybe they're right I guess..." and be on the wagon.
Porkens: He actually sounds to me like the type to wield or exhibit some amount of pull in the game as scum, as simple as that. He technically could fake that, but I don't buy that
UT: Also review what he's been doing this game outside that; I don't think he's been going with the flow of the game even when people complain about him. Feels like he's doing his own thing.
Reckoner: I mean, both? Admittedly this is one of my less reliable reads since I hear he's extremely good at scum, but still: that remark seemed off-the-cuff and therefore feels decent enough to sort on.

[Llamarble]

That's an interesting thing to say; I'll think about it more when I'm less sleepy.

ABR - honestly the way we confirm that is just to look at some of his other games. I know he has town games where he doesn't behave like this; we would be looking for scum games where he does.
Blair - Same deal as ABR.
I do agree that unnecessarily aggressive / combative / active styles are generally townie.
Blair's has been a little less intensive than ABR's, but I have liked enough individual moments from Blair that I would guess she's town.
I'm afraid of ever fully townreading Hoopla. She's in that CES category of "I don't trust myself to know the difference; have to infer her alignment from the rest of the game"
That being said, I do think she's probably town. For me it was the thinking things through in the same way moments from earlier in the day.
Porkens - Maybe, I get the 'scum would force themselves into a minimum contribution because they don't want to let down their teammates' angle. Then there's the there where he went.
I don't especially think he's scum, but we'll have a lot more to go on when he participates more.
UT - I do understand the 'does his own thing' impression, but I think that might happen as scum too. Not sure. Will read him in more depth and context when I can. Of your townreads, I would say he is the only one at real risk today.
Reck - I think Reck is particularly good at fabricating 'off the cuff' (or just actually making off the cuff remarks as scum).
But his I'mma die soon because scum know I have knowledge thing makes me not want to try lynching him today (not that I would have been likely to anyway), assuming it's not some kind of traitor claim.

I don't usually get super permanent townreads though; if I do live through to D2, or I just get a big block of free time to soak my brain in the thread, I tend to completely start over and reevaluate a lot.

[Porkens]

First of all, every time I think about this game, this song starts playing in my head:

Spoiler:

Please consider it the soundtrack to this post.

Answers to Auro and Llamarble:

Spoiler:

Interesting analysis. What happens when it's a town wagon that gets run up to L-1? As someone who thinks L-x wagon cycling is a really good strategy, I'm curious.

I had asked for your analysis if he flips town. So if he flips scum, you'd think there were bussers on his wagon?

I believe the idea holds no matter the alignment of the target - if someone gets run up to l-2, l-1 and doesn't get lynched they get harder to Lynch later. sometimes scum can use this to their advantage. Please hold on part 2 of your question.

I just finished reading to this point and I have notes that I'll turn into a reads list now, but that unvote really tweaked me so I'm just spewing.

Sounds good to me.
It's a bit of a shock when somebody comes back from a couple days of lower activity to GO ALL OUT on the player who happens to already have the biggest wagon, but if you have an internal "if we don't get them the first runup we'll never get them" then I get it.

I unvoted because I lost count and didn't particularly want to leave Auro holding the hammer having already expressed intent to maybe vote VPB.

Fair, I think he's at L-2.

some social stuff:

Spoiler:

I'm really excited to be playing with such a high caliber group. Especially so many familiar peeps. Frankly I'm honored. Pigs are one of the cutest animals, so I consider myself at least an associate of the cute club. Starbuck, I loved the picture you posted. I came to MS after first playing on Epic Mafia, which gave me a ton of bad habits that I still can’t seem to break. Someone mentioned that we grew up in an old meta that bears little resemblance to today and I couldn’t agree more. My favorite finished game is probably dreamerlz’s “a little house in the woods”. It was mad flavor and I just had a blast creatively in it. Favorite role is multi-kill day vig, or any vig really. I like so many scummers it’s impossible to pick 5. I think the one I look up to most at the moment is NSG.

Reflections on the game thus far:

Spoiler:

As I read through I took some scratch notes, but I think the most ill squeeze out of them right now is a rough reads list and it probably won't be airtight and internally consistent, so if something looks wrong that I should reconsider, let me know. I also have a couple comments and questions. I HAVE read the whole game, from the eternal debate on cuteness, through Starbuck's great adventures, the UT saga subplot, and the VP wagon, but, like I said, I only have scratch notes and it's impossible to coalesce everything in this one post because I'm just not that good.

apropos of nothing I have a silly theory about REK's knowledge, and it's probably wrong but I won't spill it. But, since we know ONLY ONE of those with knowledge is town, unless anyone wants to counterclaim secret knowledge, I ~think~ that clears rek? Someone check my math on that please.

OH by the way, my "dos votes" comments was in answer to somebody asking somebody else (don't remember) "please compare iaun to X" (see I barely remember the context but it was not a "stab" at a wagon in either sense, just kind of an incredulous "what's to compare the dude has two votes" comment in a conversation I wasn't involved it). Funny to see it brought up so often.

QUESTIONS for several people:

Spoiler:

ALBERT, when did you initially start to scum read Auro?

GREEN CRAYONS, When did YOU initially start to scum read Auro? When did Hoopla turn neutral to you? When did MT turn town? When did Starbuck turn town? Why was UT initially scummy to you?

HOOPLA, when did you start to townread Llamarble?

IAMUSERNAME, when did YOU start to scum read Auro?

LLAMARBLE, When did Farside turn town to you? when did Crayons get a scum read from you? When did IAUN first seem scummy to you, and when did Reckoner first seem scummy to you?

MORNING TWEET, when did Blair turn neutral for you? When did far side turn scummy?

RECKONER, When did Starbuck go from scummy to towny for you?

And here's a weird fucking reads list for you:

Spoiler:

SNIPERS

(economical, precise, detatched)

Agar (LN)
iamusername (CN)

PALADINS

(self-righteous, self-assured, obvious)

Auro (CG)
Llamarble (LN)

BARDS

(whimsical, ephemeral, unassuming)

Morning Tweet (CN)
Can't Lynch a Puppy (LE)

TANKS

(blunt, straight forward, tough)

KMD4390 (LG)
Farside (LG)

BRAWLERS

(scrappy, careless, dogged)

Starbuck (CG)
Blair (CN)

THIEVES

(tactical, considered, intermittent)

Green Crayons (CE)

WIZARDS

(aloof, profound, weighty)

Hoopla (CG)
Untrod Tripod (CG)
Reckoner (CG*)

Melee DPS

Albert (CN)
VP Baltar (NE)

But Porkens, WHY VP YOU DIDNT EXPLAIN YOUR READ EEUEUEUUEUEEGHHH

Spoiler:

VPs I-would-call-flaily response to Albert, and Albert's ferocity and my initial impression of his case lead me to believe that Albert is correct. I don't have the time to iso VP right now, but I intend to do so when my brain isn't a fried egg.

[Auro]

Nice read, what are CG/CN/CE though? Hmmm actually don't tell me, I want to figure it out.

Also "we know ONLY ONE of those with knowledge is town" - where do you get this?

[Porkens]

Hawt New Game Mechanic Rules:
1) A Revelation. Some players begin the game with additional information about the game setup.

All but one of these players are Town-aligned.

Players that have additional information are not considered power roles and will not flip differently from how they otherwise would.
2) Another Revelation. This is a hidden mechanic within the game.

FUCK I misremembered NEVER MIND Adjust Rek from CG to NG

[Auro]

Ahh the chaotic lawful thingy

[Auro]

I'm a master of puzzles