Mafia of Revelations ~ Game Over!

[Green Crayons]

Puppy I could see possibly being scum based on wagonomics

Want to share specifics?

[Green Crayons]

- I think my biggest scum reads up to Page 54 are Cantlynchapuppy and iamausername for a combination of my early suspicions and their Day 1 votes. Cantlynchapuppy had a weird ABR vote right before Auro was eliminated and I didn't like iamausername's VP vote.

Can you spin both of these out more? You’ve been p quiet and these suspicions don’t really have much meat on them.

Also I just noticed from the VC that you suspect CLAP and user but are voting nobody.

What's up with that?

[iamausername]

hey i'm still working on effortpost, plz don't execute MT before i'm done kthx

promise it'll be done today

[iamausername]

Spoiler: Blair

672 is the first post that pings extremely scummy to me. just... Blair felt like she wasn't pushing Starbuck hard enough, and was going to be scumread for that, but it turned out people starting scumreading her for the opposite! like, the "i thought i would be scumread for not pushing hard enough" seems like a weird thing to think to start with, and smacks of a guilty conscience. and then the fact that she just... stops pushing Starbuck here just absolutely stinks. there's no "you guys are wrong, Starbuck is scummy" or "yeah, i guess i was wrong about Starbuck", just "oh, i'm being scumread for this, better stop doing it!"

678 - if Auro is so confusing, why no effort to figure him out? like, this post came after she asked ABR who to vote and he said "VP/Auro/UT all need pushing", so she declares VP town, Auro 'confusing' and then votes UT? there's no indication that she thinks UT is scummy, just that's another player ABR named, so i guess that's good enough?

1022 - 'hates' both the main wagons, does nothing to push anything else. this is the tl;dr version of my case right here

1032 & 1080 - that is an awfully quick turnaround from "I'm not really convinced Porkens' reaction to ABR was genuine townie outrage" to "Porkens is the hero we need right now".

1340 - find it extremely suspect that Blair sees Starbuck's revelation and just immediately jumps to 'Porkens is scum' without appearing to give any thought to the other half of that equation. like, most people, given that info, either said "well, i have a townread on farside/Porkens, so i guess it must be the other one" or "not sure, guess i'll reread them both", but Blair just jumps straight to "Starbuck is voting Porkens so i will too." like, this doesn't feel like the moment Blair learns that one of farside/Porkens is scum, this feels like the moment Blair learns that she has an excellent excuse to vote for Porkens.

Spoiler: Can'tLynchAPuppy

355 - feels kind of brazen for scum to just straight up say "i'm lurking" i guess.

395 - without an accompanying vote, this feels like egging on the Blair/Starbuck fight from the sidelines.

630 - 'VPB is town' is about the only solid stance Puppy took on anything up to that point, so an Auro vote was kind of forced, i think, which lessens the town-cred Puppy deserves for making it.

748 - this unvote does feel town to me though, curiously enough. i just don't think scum sit on an apathetic bus vote for a brief period like this and then jump off without finding a reason to vote elsewhere. like, what do they stand to gain from that? you don't get the town cred for being on a scum wagon OR keep your buddy from being executed. lose/lose.

998 - this post really comes out of nowhere. Puppy spends the whole day kind of openly lurking, taking very few solid stances on anything, just asking occasional little questions here and there, then suddenly BAM! totally off the wall scumtheory that assumes Auro is town! seems like an odd thought process for scum to fake here, but i guess if i squint i could see it as setting up for future days after an assumed VP Baltar execution on D1.

1372 - Puppy's massive confusion over what Starbuck was actually claiming feels genuine to me. like scum would already know that "one of Porkens/farside is scum" was true, which would make it very easy information for them to parse.

1400 this really looks like Puppy is voting farside while expecting her to flip town, which would be mighty suspicious except for the part where she flipped scum.

Spoiler: Green Crayons

315 - reading GC in iso, this post feels deeply ironic, because... sure not seeing a lot of suspicions being articulated here.

503 - very weird that GC calls Blair/Starbuck TvT... while voting for Starbuck.

697 - ok, there is eventual acknowledgement of this contradiction. uninspiring Starbuck vote is replaced by uninspiring UT vote.

843 - hah, "whoever said it first is prob more likely town" - pretty sure it was UT who said it first, so a good time to stop voting for him. also a good time to vote Auro. this is a good post all around.

956 - again, very weird that GC says "Starbuck didn't turn town" when asked about his read on her. there's some real cognitive dissonance here that bothers me a lot. if GC really thought that the Blair/Starbuck argument felt TvT, i don't know how that doesn't come up in this post. like, if i'm voting someone, then they have an argument with someone that looks TvT, i feel like i'm not going to completely forget about it when someone later asks why i stopped scumreading that person. feels like the TvT comment was just parroting the prevailing sentiment on Blair/Starbuck as opposed to a genuine thought that GC had. suspicious.

971 - now GC has this weird holistic case against Auro that amounts to "i don't find him scummy myself, but lots of people called him scummy without voting him so i guess he must be scum". would be extremely suspicious if Auro had been town, because it's ducking responsibility for his own vote, but... that would be a very odd way to go about bussing.

Spoiler: Hoopla

646 - noting that both farside and Auro appear in the "neutral-townish" middle of the pack, which is the only section given any explanation. intuitively, you would expect scum to put buddies in the sections that allow you to not have to write so much about them, but also intuitively, the "neutral" section would be that section.

801 - VP Baltar voters at this time: ABR, iamausername, Untrod Tripod, farside, Llamarble.
Hoopla's reads on these players in 646: neutral, scummy, scummy, neutral, town
"the composition of the vp baltar wagon is mostly good"
worrying.

808 - i dislike this. obviously, given that i have doggedly maintained the lowest postcount in the game, it behooves me to take umbrage with this, but... i agree with the general premise of "scum will lurk if they can get away with it" and i think looking at postcounts on a macro level is a reasonable way to generate actual data to test this hypothesis.
i don't think that looking at postcounts in an individual game is a good way to approach the question of "who is getting away with lurking".
it would be easy for Hoopla to use this to avoid responsibility for a town execution - "the data said it, not me!". and we know for a fact that one scum member was, in fact, doing his very best to raise the average scum postcount for the whole damn site, and Hoopla, if scum, would know this too, which would make it a mightily convenient time to release this research.

1118 - i think my conspiracy theory about Hoopla telling Auro to claim VT would hold a lot more weight if Hoopla had actually, you know, done anything to try to halt his execution after the claim, rather than noting that she might have done so in the past. thought it was a case of 'hammer happened before she had a chance' from reading her D2 posts, but clearly that was not the case. alright then.

1350 - some reasonable wagon analysis. this is basically the only part of the Morning Tweet case that i find at all compelling.

Spoiler: Kmd4390

787 - Kmd wandering in way after the Blair/Starbuck thing had entirely blown over and the hive mind had declared it TvT to say "but Starbuck is scummy you guys" feels kind of town to me. obviously wrong, but it was clear by that point that a Starbuck wagon was not going to happen, and that trying to push such a thing would more likely generate heat on himself than anything else.

921 - "little things in his language that show a thought process" is a very vague reason for Kmd to be against the Auro wagon. suspect.

943 - posting an hour later to change his position from "i am against both Auro and VP wagons but will vote VP if i have to" to "i am against both but will vote Auro if i have to" feels unlikely to come from scum. it's just such a mild change i don't know why he'd bother.

Spoiler: Morning Tweet

473 - this post contains a bunch of townreads with detailed reasoning on most of them, and then farside is just slipped in there without any explanation. feels town to me - i think scum listing a buddy as town would be very conscious of the fact that were doing so and feel obliged to explain it, especially with how much she explains her other reads here.

624 - "Why are you putting me as scum with Blair? Auro sure idk maybe I'm being too lenient towards him" i can't imagine MT making this post as scum unless Blair is also scum. "what makes you think i'm scum with this townie? clearly my real buddy is my real buddy!"

1089 - i don't think scum MT makes this post. unvoting VP and saying "in theory we'll learn the most from flipping Auro" is a fine way to make Auro the most likely execution for the day without really being involved in it, which is the exact opposite of what scum would want out of D1. seems far more likely as a town player who wasn't really buying the Auro case.

idk, there's no other particular posts i can point to but everything in MT's iso just feels extremely town to me, just doesn't feel like there is any kind of manipulation happening, i think she's giving her honest thoughts and people are calling it scummy that she's not committing to anything but sometimes it's really difficult to commit to things as town because you don't know anything for sure.

i'm going to post this now. i will take a look at UT later, probably not bother with Reck, i entirely forgot about his revelation soft-claim and i don't see that coming unprompted from scum. but just... Blair is screamingly obvious scum to me and MT really, really isn't. i feel like some complacency is setting in after we've hit two scum in a row and people feel like we just can't lose from here, and they're just going along with an easy choice that kind of makes sense without examining it too closely. and like this will happen again tomorrow when MT flips town and people will just default to me, then probably Puppy, then maybe KMD, and then oops scum win.

VOTE: Blair

don't do the easy thing, do the right thing. vote Blair.

[Blair]

I've been low efforting this game (which is probably why you felt this was a viable game to wagon me in), let me know when it's time to start flailing.

In the meantime, everyone else should take note of the way IAAU just described his game plan and then ascribed it to me, while theorizing that town is picking easy cases without examining them too closely whilst pushing exactly that.

[Gammagooey]

hey a Blair

I'm not particularly convinced by IAAU's case on you Blair but I'm up for poking you into doing more since you've been low efforting today

-You were voting UT for what seemed like you not liking his reasons to think you were scum. Am I parsing that correctly, and was there any more than that in Blair's behind the scenes screening room? Do you think any of your reason(s) to find UT scummy day 1 translate over into him still being reasonably scummy this game day?

-Do you have any SPICY reads for the final scum if you're assuming IAAU is the 3rd, or if you wind up being wrong about IAAU any suspicions most people might find unusual on who the 3rd/4th could plausibly be?

[xRECKONERx]

i have reread my drunk iso of CLAP and no longer think it's good

UNVOTE

[Untrod Tripod]

vote iam

Rather do this. Especially given his post. Feels like preemptively grabbing towncred for opposing a misyeet

[AGar]

CLAP or Gamma

So I'm working out a couple ISOs, but Auro's reaction to Llamarble pushing on him was similar to Farside pushing on him (and doesn't line up with other pushes on him that I've observed so far). Auro had a habit of choosing specific people to engage with fiercely that were voting him, while otherwise not really pushing against others (myself being the latter category).

Meh, this was not what I thought it to be upon further digging around. He struck the tone with a handful of people (and more than I recalled initially) and in retrospect, doesn't seem great to lump Llama in there wrt how the town was generally reading him at the time. There are other small tics that bother me from llama and gamma independent of associative tells, but nothing I feel super great about right now.

---

1598 pings as "I'm doing something, I'm doing something!" while not actually doing anything.

@KMD

Do you plan on engaging with the

current

events at all or do you just plan on continuing to hang out in the past where you can give uncontroversial opinions on dated matters and don't have to react in real time? Because all I see right now is you doing the latter.

1612 screams "You can't fault me for not being good because

you're all so very good and better

," and that is a terrible line of reasoning.

1637 is :goodposting:

Dislike 1654, generally echo what Gamma's putting down in 1655.

I feel... uncomfortable with the ease that the MT wagon has just casually picked up? I know there were some vocalized scumreads on MT D1/D2, and I feel like MT's been skating by and not doing anything and I agree with the arguments in favor of yeeting MT, but didn't feel like it was *this* many. I'm townleaning ~1/2 the wagon though, so it's not like I'm sitting here with flashing bells saying "fuck this wagon is purely scum driven."

I don't like IAAUN's reads? Like I am very suspect of him saying I'm obvtown because, well, I don't think I've played in that manner to be read that way? Also the Blair vote is a weird move.

P-Edit: Misyeet is a great term.

[Blair]

hey a Blair

I'm not particularly convinced by IAAU's case on you Blair but I'm up for poking you into doing more since you've been low efforting today

-You were voting UT for what seemed like you not liking his reasons to think you were scum. Am I parsing that correctly, and was there any more than that in Blair's behind the scenes screening room? Do you think any of your reason(s) to find UT scummy day 1 translate over into him still being reasonably scummy this game day?

-Do you have any SPICY reads for the final scum if you're assuming IAAU is the 3rd, or if you wind up being wrong about IAAU any suspicions most people might find unusual on who the 3rd/4th could plausibly be?

UT was mostly my olive branch to ABR (out of game thing, I know, but we rarely get along and I was trying to work with him) and UT was the most agreeable from his list for me. Everything that came after that was me doubling down on my vote because I usually do, and it's hard to apply pressure if you aren't really pushing anything. I don't really feel like I have enough to go on (even now) to take a definitive stance on UT at this point.

My spiciest take by far is: {Starbuck | Reck / GC}, which I think is actually kind of compelling based on wagons and the fact that Porkens was killed rather than Starbuck.

That's if IAAU is town, though.

If IAAU is scum, maybe Puppy? Or whoever replaced Llamarble - who replaced Llamarble?

[Blair]

Oh, you replaced Llamarble. Awkward.

[Blair]

{Starbuck | Reck / GC}

To elaborate on this a little: When Puppy suggested an investigator check out Starbuck, Reck and GC were the two people who sort of scoffed at that and tried to dissuade from it - then Porkens was nightkilled which sort of "Proved" Starbuck's revelation - an odd choice for scum to clear her instead of killing her if she's town. The Porkens kill pretty much guarantees she will never be investigated.

[Green Crayons]

I don’t remember scoffing but I’ve been known to do it.

Including your theory requires a big gambit from Starbuck (offering up farside buddy) and Reck (who has confirmed Starbuck as town).

It’s a really bad theory.

[Green Crayons]

Including at*

As in, this is me scoffing.

[Green Crayons]

i have reread my drunk iso of CLAP and no longer think it's good

UNVOTE

But actually, Reck, why don’t you share your revelation? So we can all agree that we should feel good about Starbuck.

[Blair]

I am aware it requires a big gambit - that's what makes it a spicy take.

Is your point that neither Starbuck nor Reck would engage in a big gambit?

[Gammagooey]

Oh, you replaced Llamarble. Awkward.

i am v. sneaky

killing Porkens over Starbuck being a reason for Starbuck being scum is more than a bit of a reach imo. Porkens was actually confirmed town at that point unless all of Starbuck/Porkens/farside were scum together, so if the scum don't think that Porkens would be protected/watched then he's objectively the better kill (discounting one of them having significantly better reads than the other) than Starbuck who isn't conf. town.

I could go into a little more about starbuck thoughts but I did ask you for your spiciest read and that is v. spicy so I'm fine leaving it with that for now I think.

Reck I think is a reasonable scumread that I just don't agree with personally.

[Green Crayons]

I am aware it requires a big gambit - that's what makes it a spicy take.

Is your point that neither Starbuck nor Reck would engage in a big gambit?

My point is that three of the remaining scum would not, on D2, sacrifice one of their own (who wasn’t under serious pressure), and then tie the last two together so if one flips scum the other is in serious jeopardy based on associative tells alone.

There’s risky, and then there’s stupid.

[iamausername]

I feel... uncomfortable with the ease that the MT wagon has just casually picked up? I know there were some vocalized scumreads on MT D1/D2, and I feel like MT's been skating by and not doing anything and I agree with the arguments in favor of yeeting MT, but didn't feel like it was *this* many. I'm townleaning ~1/2 the wagon though, so it's not like I'm sitting here with flashing bells saying "fuck this wagon is purely scum driven."

it feels this way because the wagon is not scum-driven, because scum don't need to drive wagons on town if town will do it for them.

[Morning Tweet]

I'm sorry, I'll be back later than I thought

UNVOTE:

I'm not comfortable voting username after reading some of his post

I'm a VT with no revelation

[Kmd4390]

- I think my biggest scum reads up to Page 54 are Cantlynchapuppy and iamausername for a combination of my early suspicions and their Day 1 votes. Cantlynchapuppy had a weird ABR vote right before Auro was eliminated and I didn't like iamausername's VP vote.

Can you spin both of these out more? You’ve been p quiet and these suspicions don’t really have much meat on them.

Those points specifically I don't think there's really much more to say. I mean the ABR wagon, it's been covered how bad that was and I just don't think blair is scum which gives me Cantlynchapuppy. VP pretty much described why iamausername's vote on him was bad.

But as far as some other issues...

Both iamausername and Cantlynchapuppy had votes on farside that could have been scum in the mindset of "oh crap my buddy is going down because of info, I'd better jump on the wagon so I don't get caught on it."

Cantlynchapuppy also had a post that somewhat matched something farside said about investigate roles needing to be on Starbuck/Porkens/farside. It just feels like something a Cantlynchapuppy/farside team would want to happen if scum has some sort of element that screws with investigative roles and they either thought they could get a false innocent on farside or false guilty on Porkens or Starbuck. Like if someone flips framer or sometby, I'm gonna be convinced Cantlynchapuppy is scum.

A post of iamausername's that stood out to me was where he called auro's VT claim while actually being a tracker bad play. While he's absolutely right, he sounded annoyed or bitter about it. Could be someone upset at a teammate. Also where he talked about the pool it seemed like the mindset of who is eliminatable rather than who he scum reads.

If I'm wrong on either of these reads, UT Is probably my next pick. Hooplas post about finding a bussing buddy made me realize UTs position and timing to hop on the wagon make him a possible Auro buddy. And then the way he made such a show of hammering farside but then put it off seemed like maybe he wanted some credit for it. His post about Reck not coming after him at daystart also kind of makes me wonder if he's scum who avoided that NK out of fear it points to him but Porkens was basically confirmed town so maybe that's tinfoil.

I don't really feel like morning tweet is scum. Nothing has convinced me there.

I still have a pet theory of hoopla being scum with Cantlynchapuppy but meh.

___________

Also I just noticed from the VC that you suspect CLAP and user but are voting nobody.

What's up with that?

I don't usually put a vote down when I'm behind.

@KMD Do you plan on engaging with the current events at all or do you just plan on continuing to hang out in the past where you can give uncontroversial opinions on dated matters and don't have to react in real time? Because all I see right now is you doing the latter.

Feel free to ask me specific questions if you don't understand my current views or I missed a major event somewhere.

__________

Vote Cantlynchapuppy

[Green Crayons]

VOTE: CLAP

[Gammagooey]

Cantlynchapuppy also had a post that somewhat matched something farside said about investigate roles needing to be on Starbuck/Porkens/farside. It just feels like something a Cantlynchapuppy/farside team would want to happen if scum has some sort of element that screws with investigative roles and they either thought they could get a false innocent on farside or false guilty on Porkens or Starbuck. Like if someone flips framer or sometby, I'm gonna be convinced Cantlynchapuppy is scum.

have you thought about how dumb this is considering that Puppy was voting farside and farside was going to be lynched and flip scum at the time

because I think you'd maybe have a point if farside flipped town but thinking pretty much anyone in this caliber of game would investigate Porkens/Starbuck after Starbuck claimed what wound up being a half-guilty on farside and Porkens became literally confirmed town seems dumb.

[AGar]

I feel... uncomfortable with the ease that the MT wagon has just casually picked up? I know there were some vocalized scumreads on MT D1/D2, and I feel like MT's been skating by and not doing anything and I agree with the arguments in favor of yeeting MT, but didn't feel like it was *this* many. I'm townleaning ~1/2 the wagon though, so it's not like I'm sitting here with flashing bells saying "fuck this wagon is purely scum driven."

it feels this way because the wagon is not scum-driven, because scum don't need to drive wagons on town if town will do it for them.

I mean, assuming Hoopla's info is correct, there's only two scum left max. So at this point almost no wagon is going to be scum driven. It's the lack of resistance or burgeoning actual counterwagon that concerns me. We got to Y-1 on D3 with no real resistance for that and within 72 hours or so.

[Kmd4390]

Gamma if farsides lynch was inevitable, sure. If there was a chance Porkens was lynched, no.