Open 785: Secrets of the Anuket Topaz [Game over!]

[RCEnigma]

I see some familiar faces. Haven't played with holden or Umlaut in a looooong time.

I've read through three or so pages and it looks like I repped into the towniest slot. Raya is a close second and holden a distant-er? Third.

[RCEnigma]

Correction: end of D4 or N4's start

Pending confirmation they could win by the start of D3. If the wincon for mafia is actually "all living members must escape to win" and not "majority members must escape to win" meaning 2/3. I don't want to talk more about this until nsg confirma something but I want it to be known.

[RCEnigma]

Also didn't particularly like eevee's opening but it's one post as far as I've read. Not concrete. I'm a' sniffin em down Cap'n!

[RCEnigma]

First impressions based on basically nothing:

• Holden town
  
• Eevee town
  
• Raya town
  
• Chemist kinda town
  
• Porkens not so great
  
• Mohab either
  
• everyone else needs to do more

Hey these are pretty good minus the porkens part.

Eevee tipped the other way into town territory with the Homies observation and the questioning on Rayas intentions. Raya specifically claiming credit for moving out of rvs makes the majority of her argument disingenuous.

[RCEnigma]

Homura*

Homura can be a homie though.

[RCEnigma]

Ok so my theory was that Craig was big braining.

The mafia win by day 3 doesn't hold up so I'm assuming majority has to escape.

What I asked Nsg was about mafia being able to target partners with the nightkill and she confirmed they cannot. The idea was that the win condition around mafia being lynched day 3 onwards was nullified if the mafia member that escaped day 3 targets their remaining partner with the nightkill so a mafia lynch wasn't possible and all remaining members have escaped alive.

[RCEnigma]

The earliest mafia can win is night four assuming a perfect game by them. Mafia has to get all players out of the game with none getting executed after day 2.

What give you the idea that craig had a day 3 win theory?

The member of the mafia that chooses to escape would be the only remaining player of their faction alive, and also escaped.

So day 3 with 1 mafia lynched 1 mafia chooses to escape and 1 mafia is killed by mafia (the non escapee) technically they still fulfill their wincon without being lynched and losing.

[RCEnigma]

I guess that still makes it N3 to win not D3.

[RCEnigma]

@RCEnigma: what exactly struck you to follow down that line of setup speculation? it seems fairly... illogical, i guess, fmpov to think that an endgame like that could occur with mafia killing mafia while the other escapes.

It was like...my first thought when I read the setup in queue. It's not a common occuring thought process, but after you play with Flavorleaf enough times you run into some odd situations.

More than that though I wanted to make sure it was a situation that the mod was aware of. I'd hate to be the mod with that 1 player that has to game and ruin a setup they put their time and effort into.

[RCEnigma]

Menalque replaces Craig Pelton.

This might be the darkest timeline.

[RCEnigma]

RCEnigma - Seem to be focused on the game mechanics (which I am actually still somewhat confused about?) but yeah they don't have much else to say regarding anything else. This is more of a gut feeling but I am not a fan of this obsession with the mechanics, feel a little like they side-step reading or other discussions in favour of the mechanics stuff. Wouldn't be surprised if this flipped scum.

You guys just....aren't being that interesting.

[RCEnigma]

RCEnigma do you actually think Porkens was the towniest player in the game when you replaced him? why if so?

While people are crediting Raya with moving out of rvs, Porkens had the first vote of substance. Even if calling out fluff is just surface level it's still a prod worth acknowledging.

[RCEnigma]

VOTE: Mohab can I get you to elaborate more on what thoughts feel organic to you from Eevee? Also what do you think about Eevee/Homura in tandem?

[RCEnigma]

I'm not ready to dive into this world because I have at least some reason to townread each but, there is a world where the team is exactly Eevee/Raya/Homura.

[RCEnigma]

It's just as likely that they would wait for a wagon to form on you and then defend you, or just do something else altogether.

Basically this, it isn't important now but would be relevant after a scum flip.

Umlaut say more things I like.

[RCEnigma]

Why snowblaze and ydrasse?

I will answer this once a plurality of the thread have answered my question about what they think scum would be doing

Raya is this what flipped you Craig read? Why?

[RCEnigma]

Catching up now, my initial impression of the game is that Craig Pelton is very townie, probably my top TR

Craig was slightly townie for his wagon choice but menalque repping in defaults the slot to scum. I did like this entrance and I am completely unbiased as someone that did the same thing.

[RCEnigma]

Wifom does exist.

[RCEnigma]

So for anyone who didn’t already know: I am Craig Pelton. Craig Pelton is me. I wanted to play in the community game but after that got cancelled and I received the invitation, I figured I’d just use it in this game instead. I wasn’t planning on outing at any point, but I accidentally posted in another game as Pelton thereby outing my identity and thought it was a little unfair on anyone not aware of that to lose out on the bonus info

This is a troubling development. Menalque would certainly open wolf as scum and the town lean stuff for wagon choice is now null at best.

[RCEnigma]

Fredrick, did you lose the ability to speak at some point recently?

No.

+1

[RCEnigma]

Reachy yes, but did we not get out of rvs?

sure but are you now claiming that was your original intention rather than actually thinking it was suspicious from Holden?

~Eve

Yes. It stood out to me most in the rvs phase though

Why is your vote still on Holden then?

[RCEnigma]

Fredrick, did you lose the ability to speak at some point recently?

No.

+1

So...

-1

[RCEnigma]

I'm down to murder everyone not named eevee, holden, or Umlaut today.

[RCEnigma]

That was a bad post and I encourage everyone to not follow my example. Please refrain from commenting on your top townreads. Town doesn't benefit from universal townreads today. Just focus on your scumreads pls ty.

[RCEnigma]

I don't understand +1 or -1. Care to clarify?

I liked and then I didn't like.

[RCEnigma]

How was it that you liked a post that just said no?

Because it didn't come off as a partner/partner interaction. If Menalque was giving a helping hand to get you involved I'd expect more than a one word response.

[RCEnigma]

I already am voting Craig Pelton. I started it.

The need to point this out plus the unprompted vote switch to snowblaze had partner equity. Then menalque directs a prod to you directly which reads odd. The response is really all I have to levy against all of that.

[RCEnigma]

While I've got you, what made you vote Mohab?

[RCEnigma]

-1

[RCEnigma]

You think scum just....isn't playing the game?

[RCEnigma]

Fwiw I don't think Frederick is with snow or ydrasse. Feel less strongly about Frederick not being with menalque.

Strongly believe menalque is not with snow or ydrasse since I know that he would know this is an anti-bus setup.

[RCEnigma]

any thoughts on the bottom of my 202 RCE?

Not as bad as the bottom of your 292

Scum could be smarter than me, they could have weirder logic than me. But if they're aware (even vaguely) why shouldn't town be?

[RCEnigma]

Bear with me since I rarely play setups besides the Newbie one, but is Holden being post-restricted? I don't remember which game it was that had a player similarly bound by pirate-speak.

in contrast to Mohab's setup question - this i like

Homura usually plays newbie games and she's apparently played in game where a player had a pirate speak post restriction before so this is a legitimate question to ask
it being a legitimate question means she could've asked it in her scum PT or not suspected it in the first place if scum have said soemthing about the open setup in there

it's minor High Seas points to Homura - let's just say 1 actually i don't do halves

~Eve

I would like to point out that mafia doesn't have daytalk and Homura thus couldn't have asked it in the scum PT. Also, scum might not have said anything about the open setup in there, causing what we observed.

Where is this specified?

[RCEnigma]

I've played with RCEnigma two-ish times and he seems very different.

Fwiw I don't think Frederick is with snow or ydrasse. Feel less strongly about Frederick not being with menalque.

Strongly believe menalque is not with snow or ydrasse since I know that he would know this is an anti-bus setup.

It seems a bit early to look for partners, no? And I think these conclusions come from very mild shade; not sure they mean much.

~Eva

The last 3-4 times this was used as a base argument against me have all been wrong. Links available if necessary but I see you're already falling into a bias.

I don't know how eliminating pairings is shady.

For the most part I'm not a huge fan of pre flip pairings, but I'm also not going to ignore interactions that I feel provide context for more informed hunting.

[RCEnigma]

Frederick comes off genuine. Didn't really think claiming there was no day talk to discredit Mohab made much sense in the first place.

[RCEnigma]

Frederick comes off genuine. Didn't really think claiming there was no day talk to discredit Mohab made much sense in the first place.

I don't think the post quoted below was discrediting anyone.

Bear with me since I rarely play setups besides the Newbie one, but is Holden being post-restricted? I don't remember which game it was that had a player similarly bound by pirate-speak.

in contrast to Mohab's setup question - this i like

Homura usually plays newbie games and she's apparently played in game where a player had a pirate speak post restriction before so this is a legitimate question to ask
it being a legitimate question means she could've asked it in her scum PT or not suspected it in the first place if scum have said soemthing about the open setup in there

it's minor High Seas points to Homura - let's just say 1 actually i don't do halves

~Eve

I would like to point out that mafia doesn't have daytalk and Homura thus couldn't have asked it in the scum PT. Also, scum might not have said anything about the open setup in there, causing what we observed.

Err I meant Homura there. You aren't discrediting a read directly but by challenging Eevee's basis for defending Homura by pointing out no day talk it nullifies the reasoning eevee had.

But day talk can be confirmed or disconfirmed so it's not something scum would fake having or not having. I'm saying I don't think that's what you were doing there.

[RCEnigma]

@rc: can you walk me through your read on eevee. there seems to be a Moment (238/239) where you're speculating that they're scum/on a specific team and then throw them into a no-elimination pile in 262. what caused that turnaround?

It's not a turnaround, I said in 239 it wasn't a world I was evaluating yet since I townread most of the slots I included. Eevee's questioning is *mostly* indicative of solving and that's going to lead to stances and stances lead to scum. Regardless of their alignment their making the game easier to parse and aren't an option today.

[RCEnigma]

You think scum just....isn't playing the game?

I mean... yeah? Potentially?

I don’t see any reason to have paranoia on my TRs right now and I think 2 scum is very probable in that group, and especially if suji is scum or something it would explain a lot about the gamestate

You never hit me back about this, RCE

The gamestate feels very weird right now

Sorry, didn't see this.

Err sure there isn't much reason for paranoia because nothing's happened. 2 scum in that group could be true. But fmpov that only leaves snow and ydrasse and that feels too good to be true. Fred I town lean and Homura I sorta townlean via eevee.

If you're town I'd probably look back at your wagon formation but it never really went anywhere. None of the wagons have.

I think the game state is weird because everyone's shaking hands on townreads. Which could be inactive scum or scum agreeing and banking on a low info lurker lynch by deadline.

[RCEnigma]

You think scum just....isn't playing the game?

I mean... yeah? Potentially?

I don’t see any reason to have paranoia on my TRs right now and I think 2 scum is very probable in that group, and especially if suji is scum or something it would explain a lot about the gamestate

Also, you didn't mention suji in your initial scum grouping?

[RCEnigma]

Frederick comes off genuine. Didn't really think claiming there was no day talk to discredit Mohab made much sense in the first place.

I don't think the post quoted below was discrediting anyone.

Bear with me since I rarely play setups besides the Newbie one, but is Holden being post-restricted? I don't remember which game it was that had a player similarly bound by pirate-speak.

in contrast to Mohab's setup question - this i like

Homura usually plays newbie games and she's apparently played in game where a player had a pirate speak post restriction before so this is a legitimate question to ask
it being a legitimate question means she could've asked it in her scum PT or not suspected it in the first place if scum have said soemthing about the open setup in there

it's minor High Seas points to Homura - let's just say 1 actually i don't do halves

~Eve

I would like to point out that mafia doesn't have daytalk and Homura thus couldn't have asked it in the scum PT. Also, scum might not have said anything about the open setup in there, causing what we observed.

Err I meant Homura there. You aren't discrediting a read directly but by challenging Eevee's basis for defending Homura by pointing out no day talk it nullifies the reasoning eevee had.

But day talk can be confirmed or disconfirmed so it's not something scum would fake having or not having. I'm saying I don't think that's what you were doing there.

"But day talk can be confirmed or disconfirmed so it's not something scum would fake having or not having." I didn't claim to be scum and have daytalk. What are you trying to say?

That you wouldn't have said what you said if you were scum.

[RCEnigma]

You guys cool with 1 sentence responses if I let you guys know that's my prerogative beforehand? Just to keep things concise and simple.

[RCEnigma]

@RCEnigma, who do you think is most likely to be “scum agreeing and banking on a low info lurker lynch”?

If snow/ydrasse/suji has >2 scum probably Mohab/menalque/Raya farther off, ≈1/2 scum.

[RCEnigma]

i have some questions for you: when's the last time you made an omelette, what is your read on Mohab, and would you like to join Eva and i at the midnight buffet

This is an FL post.

[RCEnigma]

I don't think Eve is FL for clarity.

[RCEnigma]

RCEnigma does actually have some useful content, which is nice. I'm not getting a townread from any of it, though, and I am curious: if you're trusting Eevee's townlean on Homura, why do you not feel the same way about their read on Ydrasse? (202)

I'm not blind trusting Eevee, Homura had vaguely townie feelings and Eevee backed it. I've never played with ydrasse and I don't recall a single ydrasse post so I'm not sheeping it.

[RCEnigma]

Also, @rce, next time you’re here get off your vanity and vote Holden with me

Nah, Mohab is just as good a vote. You could have easily voted Mohab if you wanted a wagon to go somewhere or given reasons for Mohab!town.

If Holden is absent due to V/LA then the push there is even worse.

[RCEnigma]

I will catch up in a few, should be an easy/short catch up since it's only see 16 pages, and I have a sinking feeling that at least half of it is rubbish.

You're overestimating the content of this game.

As an aside, A50 has beaten me 3-4 times straight as scum and the last time was because I used a tell that I made up for him when I was scum lol.

[RCEnigma]

What's scummy about RCE

RCE said no. RCE bad.

[RCEnigma]

Are you scum once again, S_S?

I am not.

Sure. I haven't said anything indicative of my alignment yet.

Say it ain't so SS.

[RCEnigma]

It's not exciting me like I thought coming back to MS would.

[RCEnigma]

VOTE: Raya

[RCEnigma]

Almo what do you think of my reasoning here and why does town!RCE make that post?

Hope you don't mind me stepping in here but town isn't negatively impacted by my statement. If nsg gets back to me that scum can't kill scum then it's void. If she gets back to me that scum can kill scum then I make it known in thread anyway. Even if scum weren't aware of it there is the possibility. The alternative there is that scum discovers it's possible and town is still in the dark about it.

That said I don't think anyone outside of menalque at the time has the wile to make that play. A50 still could (:

[RCEnigma]

I don't want to talk more about this until nsg confirma something but I want it to be known.

then why did you say this part? that gives me the impression you weren't going to make it known scum could kill each other if they could, just in case they didn't realise

~Eve

Nsg hadn't said anything yet.

[RCEnigma]

Almo what do you think of my reasoning here and why does town!RCE make that post?

Hope you don't mind me stepping in here but town isn't negatively impacted by my statement. If nsg gets back to me that scum can't kill scum then it's void. If she gets back to me that scum can kill scum then I make it known in thread anyway. Even if scum weren't aware of it there is the possibility. The alternative there is that scum discovers it's possible and town is still in the dark about it.

That said I don't think anyone outside of menalque at the time has the wile to make that play. A50 still could (:

I dunno where you got the idea that scum could have been allowed to kill scum. It's VERY rare for a mod to allow scum to kill their partners, and its usually in a "special setup" (I seem to recall one Open Setup that does) so maybe that's where you got the idea, but I can confirm I have never thought of it tbh.

Dealing with FL in a normal, don't recall if it was schadd or NK modding but I recall them saying they allow it but it's generally at the mods discretion.

[RCEnigma]

no Almo you don't follow me

RCEngima tried to give the impression he didn't want scum to realise they could kill each other if they hadn't already, and asked a question privately to the mod
but if that's the case, he shouldn't be making that post in the first place since it could possibly alert scum that they can kill each other

the scuminess of that post has nothing to do with the act of misunderstanding the rules - it has everything to do with the intent of the post and the disconnect betweent the thought process behind it and the actual act of making and posting it
you ask for scum motivation? there doesn't need to be a

specific

motivation for that post - the scum motivation for any post like that is to give out content and get yourself not scumread
you and RCE aren't invited to perform for the play - you can still have tickets to view it though

VOTE: RCEnigma

~Eve

No thanks I think plays are dumb.

[RCEnigma]

No thanks I think plays are dumb.

I say that and then RCE had to turn up and make posts like these

It's a gift, truly.

[RCEnigma]

I had a problem with the snow wagon but I don't remember what it was and the lack of defense is meh. There are a few people I think might have scumtold but it's mostly comparing to things I've done/said in past scum games.

That's a tomorrow issue.
VOTE: Snowblaze
L-1

[RCEnigma]

Yeah. I’m trying. I was just going to point out that RCE’s vote on me is ringing all kinds of alarm bells.

“I vaguely remember not liking this wagon, and I think other people have done scummy stuff, but I’m fine with eliminating this anyway, we can worry about other stuff tomorrow”.

That just screams “scum trying to push a miselimination through while simultaneously distancing from it” to me.

Other than that, in general I feel like scum are on the latter half of my wagon rather than the early part. I’ll see if I can find what I particularly don’t like.

It boils down to my preferred wagons not gaining any traction. There is leverage with a flip however and it's you or me, so how I view you or your alignment isn't super important.

[RCEnigma]

Looking at it again, I’m also not really liking A50’s entrance onto my wagon. He’s basically saying “as long as I’m not townreading them I’m down for a wagon” which feels like trying to deny responsibility for the miselimination he’s part of.

This was your stance on me so I don't understand why you feel that way towards A50.

[RCEnigma]

If I have time later and no-one’s hammered I’ll see if I can manage some analysis, but I can’t promise anything.

Holding you to this.
UNVOTE:

[RCEnigma]

I'm not sure Eevee + Raya = snow as the third but I get what you're getting at and Eevee is the only reason I'm not pursuing that angle.

I gotta say I like snow coming in and giving content under pressure opposed to Mohab just not.

I could just be paranoid of all the wagons but a flip will help regardless.

[RCEnigma]

You're building a hill that you might potentially die on if Mohab flips scum.

VOTE: Snow

Pedit says this is hammer.

[RCEnigma]

Read might potentially as will.

[RCEnigma]

It would appear you're smart or something.

[RCEnigma]

Snow won't be lynched anyway.

[RCEnigma]

Still waiting to see the math on the wagonomics.

[RCEnigma]

I’m not liking how much of my wagon is just “let’s follow Menalque, he’s the only one with an actual strong opinion”.

Partly this, the other part is that menalque is tying himself to Mohab heavily so in the event that you flip town and Mohab flips scum the game just ended on a town win. It's a bit on the nose for scum!menalque. It doesn't rule out scum!menalque/town!Mohab however.

[RCEnigma]

Fmpov, the issue is this: if snow is town, why are scum so committed to seeing her go through? Because I don’t think anyone else has been advocating that much for a snow!guillo other than me, and I know that I’m town and this is a town push on her. Whereas mohab very much only came up after the RCE wagon attempt had fallen apart

So if snow is town and mohab is scum, why aren’t the actual scum doing anything to resist mohab!flip or to back my snow push? Unless they’re entirely counting on my snow push as a defence of mohab, but that seems unlikely given that I can always change my mind and that putting all your eggs into the “letting a townie defend our scumbuddy” feels like a scumteam ceding far to much ground to be plausible

The gamestate has changed from yesterday to today just with the extension.

We were literally minutes from a no lynch yesterday with Mohab being the swing vote and inactive afaik. The alternative being a last minute hammer resulting in snows death. I was pretty close to switching to Mohab to avoid that scenario but Titus switched it up.

Mohab being scum doesn't mean scum are doing nothing, a no lynch still gets them closer to their wincon.

[RCEnigma]

I don't know what wagon seniority means.

[RCEnigma]

I like the Titus vote tbh.

[RCEnigma]

I like the Titus vote tbh.

I must be getting dumber by the minute, but I can't tell if by "the Titus vote" you're referring to hers on Ydrasse or Fredrick's on her.

Sorry I meant Fredericks on Titus.

[RCEnigma]

@mod

super cute avatar.

[RCEnigma]

The site is trying to move away from using the term lynch in favor of execution or elimination.

[RCEnigma]

G being guillotine I assume.

[RCEnigma]

Can someone explain the Titus wagon. It seems to have been prompted by their late Ydrasse vote?

There is meta involved in part.

No pressure. Love the competing wagons. I suspect S v T given the harsh nature of lynching scum against them.

Can someone sub up the reasons for each wagon?

There isn't any basis for this but this post isn't necessarily alignment indicative. It does make sense , especially fmpov , and would point towards snow!scum over Mohab. My issue is that it completely disregards that I could be scum this game which would likely make Snow the town counterwagon piloted by partners throwing pressure away from me, the grouping there would be something like me + A50, Holden or me +A50, menalque.

Looking at the VCs alone, I postulate a snow Frederick Ydrasse team.

I could see Fred omgussing off this post but I'll let him speak on it if he wants. This is the meta part, Titus uses VCA heavily so if nothing else this post feels obligatory. Scum!Titus flipping would probably mean she's playing towards the crowd familiar with her. It could come from either alignment so it isn't damning but there isn't any follow up or process being shared to support the fos.

I'll do one for Mohab!scum in a bit.

This is possibly an after thought, she would have to play some kind of devil's advocate to appear like the VCA statement is leading to a solve. I could be blowing smoke and I don't think timestamps will make this more firm as an accusation but I'll check for the sake of it.

VOTE: Ydrasse

Because why not

It's already been stated why this is a weird vote and I think Umlaut articulated it best. There isn't a reason to fish wagons outside of the leading 2 when you think 1 of them is scum.

Besides that I think the biggest thing is that Titus repping in has had no impact on the gamestate. People are still content with the wagons that were leading and the only addition is shifty play out of Titus drawing attention there as well.

She isn't a weak player and a town!Titus rep in is disruptive for scum at any stage in the game. Overall I'm just kind of underwhelmed.

[RCEnigma]

Titus you should vote for Maemuki - i'd be very surprised if snowblaze flipped scum here

~Eve

What do you think of the Titus wagon then? Diversion from Mohab?

If you're town I doubt it's Mohab in that case, scum would need to flip a snow voter to break stalemate. Wagoning you there would be the roundabout way of doing it.

[RCEnigma]

I hate almost all of these posts, this one included.

[RCEnigma]

The problem here is going into d2 my pocket scum pick after a menalque flip was A50 with the thought he was WK'ing.

But if I am flipped it discredits the rce/A50 team but not A50!scum and menalque is still unresolved at that point. Which is how town eats itself.

[RCEnigma]

I'd say I'd even prefer A50 over menalque today. There was a point I specifically called for menalques head yesterday if Mohab flipped scum and he doubled down on snow!scum. I think he has the capacity for bold scum but it was blatant.

[RCEnigma]

Montosh had some really solid progressions on his catch up and repped into the holden slot. I'm giving the scum flip credit to that slot even if Montosh ended up off wagon for the timing on Holden's vote which really flipped momentum of the game and brought the focus on Mohab in the first place.

[RCEnigma]

Eevee talk to me about your early Homura read because I agreed initially and idk if it was just weak reasoning that led me there or it's just as simple as menalque being mohabs partner.

[RCEnigma]

I was searching for that word. It somehow didn't show in my inner-mind dictionary.

But you know what I meant, so all is good.

And I would rather you considered scum!Mohab now too, but I can't make you. I mean, a scum flip on D1 is almost a town win (considering 5 players would be confirmed)

I mean I think this is kind of townie for how close to mohabs flip this is.

My thing is I don't really think A50 is that scummy I just don't think he's that townie either. At default I'm kind of inclined to lean town only because his defense of me biases me that way. But if me + A50 is the pushable solve there has to be some distance for me, if that makes sense.

[RCEnigma]

Looking at the VCs alone, I postulate a snow Frederick Ydrasse team.

Why was ydrasse in this pool and was it a team read or all individual?

[RCEnigma]

Personally, I don't see a single benefit to me making any sort of effort. I do look bad and I know it. That means if I try to push someone from the Snow wagon I am being a hypocrite. If I push someone on the Mae wagon I am protecting myself and my partner. If I go undecided I am demotivated scum. I literally can't do shit now, and I think I'll be eliminated either today or tomorrow if we don't actually hit scum.

Hell even my attempt to get back into the game fell on deaf ears. I asked why scum!me would confirm Fred, and why would I have been so blatantly defending my "proposed scum p" RCE, and nobody responded, so I get the feeling anything I say "can and will be used against me", so to speak.

I thought it was a fair point but the game is like... In the hands of the confirmed now. So there isn't incentive for those in the pool to hunt when the confirmed will just do it and have the final say.

I felt the same way with Titus blowing my questions off. If I'm eliminated I'm eliminated it's cool.

[RCEnigma]

To make the confirmed's job easier, I ask all the unconfirmed town give us a reason to townread them and all the unconfirmed scum give us a reason to scumread them.

1 reason to townread me: I rolled town
1 reason to scumread me: Dont

[RCEnigma]

I felt the same way with Titus blowing my questions off. If I'm eliminated I'm eliminated it's cool.

If anyone feels like I blew them off, it's not deliberate. I have had real life explode.

All good, rl health first.

[RCEnigma]

Ahh fine, pocket me A50.

VOTE: Menalque

[RCEnigma]

What's the fall back for both being town?

[RCEnigma]

I'm learning how goats, cars, and doors work all in the same day!

[RCEnigma]

I don't have a strong read on ydrasse but the rest of the Poe for today has gotten progressively townier over the day, Menalque included. If I ignored day 1 then ydrasse would be over menalque for sure.

If the block is committed to menalque!town today I feel ydrasse is next up as opposed to menalque vs A50.

[RCEnigma]

Also forgot to point out: scum can't bus today, which is why I asked the unconfirmed to make pushes. Not sure how well my plan worked, but I think everyone has been hardpushing A50 which maybe clears him(?)

~Eva

I haven’t been, but he’s been mostly advocating for me so I guess it’s the same difference. Also, I think that while this is mostly solid, it’s worth bearing in mind that the white flag gambit does exist, and I imagine that A50 is in the group of people ballsy enough to play it

+1 the only reason I haven't leaned on scum not being able to bus is that a large majority of the potential scum pool features strong scum players that I wouldn't put anything past (A50 in particular, menalque, SS) SS to a lesser degree I guess, I've never seen him as one to pull risky gambits though I do view him as a cerebral player.

[RCEnigma]

I don't have anything to respond to but if I'm executed over my predecessor choosing other games over this one then screw repping into games.

[RCEnigma]

Parks his vote there until 497, trying to encourage Menalque to go there, but then doesn't interact with the large wagon on Mohab - I think the logic for going with me over Mohab was trusting Menalque on the grounds that he'd be more-or-less confirmed scum given a scum!Mohab flip.

This is accurate. I'd still go ydrasse today but scum!Mohab highly incriminates menalque and the further into the day we get, the further from that idea we get. Which is why my vote is still there.

I did like the initial wagon comp on Mohab but it was after getting no traction on it (only Umlaut voted with me) after I moved away that people flipped onto it.

[RCEnigma]

I am really not liking this at all. There's also the fact that he supported the Titus wagon and made a case against Titus but never actually switched to vote there, which would imply he was trying to persuade others to switch off the Mohab wagon to protect his partner?

It implies I didn't believe Titus was scummy enough to vote, I just liked where Fredericks head was at in that moment.

That plus I wasn't keen on detracting from the leading wagons and spreading votes onto a third competing wagon a day out from deadline. Which was what Titus was pushed for in the first place.

[RCEnigma]

If we're going with me today then post my flip A50 is off the table as a lynch option because it's dumb to lynch both paired slots as possible partners instead of 1 and 1 of possible pairings. So bear that in mind.

Tomorrow the pool is {menalque, ydrasse, SS, Raya} Montosh is townier than all of those slots, or was day 1, I'll reread his day 2 pending execution however. That doesn't exclude him from possible pairings.

I imagine they look something like:

Menalque + any
Montosh + ydrasse
I don't remember any more off the top of my head.

I guess that would leave SS + Raya
SS + Montosh

[RCEnigma]

I never said it was insane for scum to bus, I said a double bus was insane. Because the instant the redflip hits the game goes completely out of scum's hands and they have no idea if people are going to conclude that bussing was likely. So if you double bus, you're essentially forcing that outcome, and then you have to survive two executions where five conftown players bounce ideas off of each other and you basically don't get to participate.

Normally the primary reason for bussing is to maintain control over the gamestate, but all of scum's control over the gamestate is gone if they lose a member in the first two days. So that leaves the only reason to bus is to look town or not look suspicious, but given that they have to confirm people, they can just confirm almost everyone on the wagon and then the majority of unconfirmed players are ones who didn't vote flipped scum.

Scum 2 and 3 are worried about interactions with scum 1 but not the interactions with each other. 2 scum elims ends the game so it's less "I've gotta distance and look good to stretch to lylo" and more about buying each other time.

[RCEnigma]

That’s sort of valid but given that one would still leave at night the remaining one would still have to be careful to not be too closely associated with them once they exit the game

So I’m not sold on that really

Fair, wasn't thinking about the scum escape.

[RCEnigma]

I never said it was insane for scum to bus, I said a double bus was insane. Because the instant the redflip hits the game goes completely out of scum's hands and they have no idea if people are going to conclude that bussing was likely. So if you double bus, you're essentially forcing that outcome, and then you have to survive two executions where five conftown players bounce ideas off of each other and you basically don't get to participate.

Normally the primary reason for bussing is to maintain control over the gamestate, but all of scum's control over the gamestate is gone if they lose a member in the first two days. So that leaves the only reason to bus is to look town or not look suspicious, but given that they have to confirm people, they can just confirm almost everyone on the wagon and then the majority of unconfirmed players are ones who didn't vote flipped scum.

Scum 2 and 3 are worried about interactions with scum 1 but not the interactions with each other. 2 scum elims ends the game so it's less "I've gotta distance and look good to stretch to lylo" and more about buying each other time.

Does anyone think scum!RCE would forget about scum escaping or try to play dumb?

This is only in the context of scum distancing early game. Not literally forgetting that scum escapes day 3.

[RCEnigma]

It implies that the snow wagon was created to deflect from Mohab and set me up as the TvS counterwagon to snow that ultimately eliminated town.

This would have been discussed in the PT if this was the plan scum where going for but Montosh came in with a light scumread on me that shifted throughout his read up.

[RCEnigma]

It hadn't, so it wouldn't be to deflect from Mohab it would be to deflect from holden(Montosh) I think the pairing I said that makes sense was Montosh + ydrasse but TBH ydrasse and Montosh mutually townreading each other makes reading back.

The chain of events from ydrasse' vote on Raya going forward are:
-Ydrasse disapproves of both leading wagons (mine & Holden's) and light defends holden
- Montosh comes to a general town!ydrasse conclusion in initial catch up
-engages briefly with ydrasse like they were a townread
-ydrasse reciprocates D2
-Montosh avoids ydrasse wagon D2 in favor of menalque even when the wagon popularity decreases.

Those all feel pretty natural and ydrasse comes out of it looking townier to me than Montosh but I'd buy both of them as town. Montosh could be scum independent of ydrasse and isoing them both side by side brought up some questions about Montosh's read on SS in the context of how he's engaged with Ydrasse as town but not with SS in any meaningful way but has SS higher in his most recent readslist.

Also forgot to add that this is all in the context of the transition away from my wagon day 1 at it's height with at least 1 confirmed scum already on board.

Frederick I'm directing this mostly at you but I guess it's to everyone. The optimal play for scum is to elim town day 1 agreed? Fmpov my wagon is on town and spearheaded by two now confirmed townies with conf scum trailing. If Holden is scum and being counterwagoned what is the risk/reward for joining Mohab on my wagon that town is already pushing for?

A50 was the only person to advocate for me at the time. I'm finding it hard to believe scum!A50 would derail a town on town wagon without another avenue to push at the time. I don't think town!A50 is an impenetrable roadblock for scum at that point either.

[RCEnigma]

If I'm wrong and it's A50 then we just win and I'll have been carried which is fine but I'm pretty positive 2 of 3 scum lie in Raya, menalque, SS.

[RCEnigma]

If I'm wrong and it's A50 then we just win and I'll have been carried which is fine but I'm pretty positive 2 of 3 scum lie in Raya, menalque, SS.

[RCEnigma]

If I'm wrong and it's A50 then we just win and I'll have been carried which is fine but I'm pretty positive 2 of 3 scum lie in Raya, menalque, SS.

[RCEnigma]

I'm around. Both wagons are garbage. That is all.

[RCEnigma]

VOTE: SS

[RCEnigma]

VOTE: Menalque I'm cool with ending the game.

[RCEnigma]

Again, with Fredrick's observation on the day 1 wagons in mind, Ydrasse diverted attention from competing town wagons in favor of Raya (who should be in the poe). You kind of have to make a leap in assuming my alignment to get there since you're all slots that aren't me.

The only time ydrasse broke character (townreading Montosh) was when Montosh was already pretty much sentenced to death.

Here comes the shade... Off the back of the second menalque led wagon on town.

[RCEnigma]

Menalque today, if the game doesn't end with menalque then 2 of 2 scum lie in SS/Raya.

[RCEnigma]

Day 1 I didn't think I'd have to actively case Menalque but like....there needs to be a reminder on why he's a top scumspect I guess.

[RCEnigma]

SS can be scum with Raya for that super awkward back and forth into vanity votes yesterday. Menalque can be scum with either one of them though.

[RCEnigma]

we can throw 3 more people overboard and i'm still of the opinion that [Menalque, Almost50, RCEnigma] has at least 1 pirate in it - so if we target in there we should win
and it's not like i'm just saying this because of the D1 counterwagon thing - there's individual reasons to think all 3 are scummy

Montosh probably would've been my last choice on the Snow wagon but ah well

~Eve

Is this still that you think I feel 'off' from the maybe meta you have with me or am I in this Poe by proxy of A50's defense?

[RCEnigma]

Again, with Fredrick's observation on the day 1 wagons in mind, Ydrasse diverted attention from competing town wagons in favor of Raya (who should be in the poe). You kind of have to make a leap in assuming my alignment to get there since you're all slots that aren't me.

The only time ydrasse broke character (townreading Montosh) was when Montosh was already pretty much sentenced to death.

Here comes the shade... Off the back of the second menalque led wagon on town.

It appears that RCEnigma has forgotten we don't know if attention was diverted from two competing town wagons.

Holden/my wagon is what I'm referring to and I highlighted you had to make a judgement call on my alignment to get to where my headspace is regarding ydrasse.

If ydrasse is scum what was she doing wagoning Raya with me over joining either town wagon. What was A50 doing hard defending me and townreading Holden as the competing wagon?

Scum play bad all the time is such a cop out answer to excuse bias.

[RCEnigma]

FL is going to kick me because Menalque has been Hatcheting me from the very beginning and I didn't catch it or call it out.

Case on Menalque to begin once I finish my coffee and breakfast.

[RCEnigma]

Again, with Fredrick's observation on the day 1 wagons in mind, Ydrasse diverted attention from competing town wagons in favor of Raya (who should be in the poe). You kind of have to make a leap in assuming my alignment to get there since you're all slots that aren't me.

The only time ydrasse broke character (townreading Montosh) was when Montosh was already pretty much sentenced to death.

Here comes the shade... Off the back of the second menalque led wagon on town.

It appears that RCEnigma has forgotten we don't know if attention was diverted from two competing town wagons.

Holden/my wagon is what I'm referring to and I highlighted you had to make a judgement call on my alignment to get to where my headspace is regarding ydrasse.

If ydrasse is scum what was she doing wagoning Raya with me over joining either town wagon. What was A50 doing hard defending me and townreading Holden as the competing wagon?

Scum play bad all the time is such a cop out answer to excuse bias.

From what I've observed, Ydrasse has shown herself to be oblivious to how many votes are on a wagon, so, she could have very likely not noticed the Snowblaze wagon since there was no votecount throughout all of what I have described. I don't have the time to think this through right now, though, as my dad is calling me to dinner.

There was no Snowblaze wagon at this point. I led with 4 votes to 3 on Holden. Ydrasse voted Raya with me at that point.

[RCEnigma]

I have a pile of reasons menalque is probably just scum and like 2 that say he can be town.

I wanna say someone convince me he's town but that's not accurate and not what I'm interested in. Convince me eliminating Menalque loses the game.

[RCEnigma]

can we like actually vote in a50/mena today though

the two people who have been on one attempted and one successful town elimination?

It’s lowkey kinda scummy to be shading me for the montosh wagon when it was literally me and A50 + every conftown in the game

How when you two are literally her preferred pool?

[RCEnigma]

can we like actually vote in a50/mena today though

the two people who have been on one attempted and one successful town elimination?

It’s lowkey kinda scummy to be shading me for the montosh wagon when it was literally me and A50 + every conftown in the game

How when you two are literally her preferred pool?

Because it’s weird to be shading me for being on a wagon that literally every conftown in the game was ultimately okay with even if only begrudgingly in the case of umlaut and eevee?

Her shading me *in general* is like ehh whatever

Her arguing *in particular* that it’s scummy to be on a wagon that I know is at least 6/7 town and which to every conftown was 5/7 town is just scummy, because it was good faith and it was a reasonable enough belief that montosh was scum given that

every single conftown was willing to go there in the end

There was little to no discussion about Montosh being scummy. You made a case last 24h of deadline that Montosh didn't have time to refute or defend.

That's not good faith it's a rushed elimination.

[RCEnigma]

Also being confirmed doesn't give them better reads. I don't trust any of the confirmeds reads, it's like I'm playing a completely different game right now.

[RCEnigma]

Also being confirmed doesn't give them better reads. I don't trust any of the confirmeds reads, it's like I'm playing a completely different game right now.

This is just like a vaguely insane way to look at things. I would always trust the reads of confirmed players slightly more than those of unconfirmed players because I know that they’re at least scumhunting in good faith even if wrong. And you can build a synthesis off that to get better reads than you as an individual with your blind spots are likely to get

This is like the fundamental of townplay imo, and is basically necessary unless you have insanely high. % reads

They did not build the Montosh wagon, you did.

This is my issue with you claiming the wagon was in good faith because conf town were on it. Not one of them voices Montosh as their preferred wagon and I don't even recall any of them having Montosh in their immediate Poe.

Eevee or someone questioned why Montosh was being townread once and didn't follow up and frederick had a singular day 1 votecount to question montoshes alignment.

[RCEnigma]

Occam's razor says menalque pushing town with SvT h2h wagons, claiming scum him would just push the unconfirmed on that wagon then pushing the unconfirmed on that wagon to an elim, and all the defending of Mohab day 1 just points to him being scum.

I hate the idea of losing to menalque scum with all of that pointing to him but he gets away with it because he put in effort.

[RCEnigma]

For instance, what do you mean about “claiming scum him would just push the unconfirmed on that wagon then pushing the unconfirmed on that wagon to an elim”? How is this scum!indicative for me fypov?

Because things like this are narrative pushing. Like that specifically was you saying you wouldn't do xyz as town but would as scum, pushed something else and circled back to that thing scum!you would have done.

The bad faith bit is inaccurate as well, I thought you were townish day 1 and votes on your preferred wagon with the caveat that Mohab!Scum likely points to you as scum. She flipped scum. So even before mohabs flip there was content to pin you as partners and she flipped scum. I'm not overthinking this.

Day 2 I'm not super interested in screaming at the confirmed that they're wrong, they can do their own thing since the game is ultimately in their hands not in the unconfirmeds. Which, fine, but frustrating.

[RCEnigma]

You keep mentioning this doublebuss theory but still pushed on the snow wagon. So idk why you have been bringing it up.

[RCEnigma]

(2) I kind of... don’t see that in your ISO? One of your opening posts is like an ambiguous thing on how MT repping in defaults my slot to scum and I admit to only having skimmed you now but I don’t think you particularly commit on my alignment other than “probably not partners with ydrasse or snow” and “could be partners with fredrick”. Could you point me to where you did this — like where you said you thought I was townish or behaved in such a way to express this + the bit where you said mohab!scum likely points to me!scum?

You're building a hill that you might potentially die on if Mohab flips scum.

VOTE: Snow

Pedit says this is hammer.

I’m not liking how much of my wagon is just “let’s follow Menalque, he’s the only one with an actual strong opinion”.

Partly this, the other part is that menalque is tying himself to Mohab heavily so in the event that you flip town and Mohab flips scum the game just ended on a town win. It's a bit on the nose for scum!menalque. It doesn't rule out scum!menalque/town!Mohab however.

[RCEnigma]

(I just realised my argument is looking suspiciously like “too scummy to be scum” which I find pretty ironic considering how this game began!)

So when I've considered if Menalque would play this way as scum the likely answer is no. But I know a lot of people experiment with playstyles and I can't help but think the opening on Craig was telling that the slot was prepared to open wolf.

It's either that or menalque is having a very unfortunate game.

[RCEnigma]

Okay, so like re: 1879 I don’t think that 736 is really committing you to a read on me, and I felt at the time that you were much more talking generally about the way I’d be perceived in the thread? And the second post doesn’t feel like yiure really saying you think I’m that scummy either, with the “it’s a bit on the nose for scum!menalque”. I guess I could have misread 736. But like essentially I’m still unclear from that on why I’ve been the super obvious slot to you that should be flipped since the start of D2?

736 is literally if Mohab flips scum, flip menalque, town wins. I followed through with that idea through day 2 and ran into the confirmed wall.

I have the notes in a notebook but the gist is you had a scummy trajectory on Mohab and your reasoning for it does not hold up on reread.

For example (I'm recalling from memory) at one point your reasoning for defending Mohab was that snow was scum and scum were counterwagoning Mohab after they failed to get the wagon on me past 4-5 votes. With that in mind you didn't have any interest in the slots that were actively pushing both my and mohabs wagons.

So fmpov those kind of statements were more about defending Mohab than actually seeking a solve. I think the overlap on my wagon and mohabs wagon was like, Eevee/ydrasse. Both slots you townread by deadline.

[RCEnigma]

I mean, I was prepared to jokingly openwolf, I’m unclear why me doing this on an alt account says very much about my alignment?

It's not alignment defining it's just an option that *could* explain your play in a bubble.

[RCEnigma]

With regard to my trajectory, can you find the notes you have and put them out here? I’m also going off memory here but I don’t think I see the contradiction here. If I think that a slot is scum and the other slot is being counterwagoned by scum, I don’t know why I would redirect from the scum I think I have to try and hit who I think might be scum on the CW?

I think that's fair but I guess it is a culmination of things. Like, while I was taking day 1 notes I noticed your early game potential solve coincided with all of the unconfirmed slots minus like...A50 I think? Which could be scum plan, could be coincidence.

The big issue I do have is your defense of Mohab, the waffle when Mohab was in danger of actually flipping (not before), and you largely ignoring it. I posted 736 because the connection between you and Mohab already existed and is the heavy reason I suspect you, not the snow push or the Montosh push, they are supporting actions.

[RCEnigma]

If you are town where does scum lie and why? Omgussing me doesn't do much to change my mind on you and makes this discussion largely unproductive.

[RCEnigma]

If you're town I'm 100% positive the scumteam is Raya + SS. Is this discreditable fypov?

[RCEnigma]

I don't know what the fuck HoldenGolden is saying, so I'll be ignoring that slot

who the fuck is eva?

idk a lot of players open wolf a both alignments, not sure why you're bringing this stuff up as game throwing now

These 3 had good tone and I mindmelded on the first two

So, I am just wondering some stuff regarding the setup. From what I've read, does scum auto-win once they reach day 5? and why would them getting lynched Day 1 and Day 2 instantly end the game if there are supposed to be 3 players?

Correction: end of D4 or N4's start

I am gonna ask a really dumb question but, can there be power roles in this game?

These 3 are like oblivious town posting

Menalque, independently of Snowblaze, what is your actual read on Mohab?

I probably would have compromised there if we needed majority lynch

Her ISO is notably different from partition but I’m not convinced that means she’s scum. I still think the dumbtelling means probably town but like, I wouldn’t be shocked if it didn’t. Mostly she feels like a counterwagon to snow after the RCE counter didn’t take off, which is compounded by a number of scummy slots avoiding getting on her while not necessarily calling her town

I think you're confusing what town "should" do with what town "do" do. Because a lot of the time if I'm unsure of something I'll just sling it in the thread for clarification. I understand the paranoia around mohab seeming to have intentionally townslipped, but I just don't think scum actually very often decide to fake townships, and also it hasn't worked at all because people are so sceptical given the nature of the townslip? Like if you're focusing on townslips being faked, I think fredrick's is more likely because that's so much more plausible as a thing to not be sure of. Like mohab fake slipping a lack of knowledge about whether there are PRs just isn't even an effective way to fake townslip.

What about the push do you think is poor quality?

The fact that your main point seems to have been “mohab meta looks different here” and despite that being pretty weak on its own mohab has still become a strong counterwagon to snow

[RCEnigma]

If you are town where does scum lie and why? Omgussing me doesn't do much to change my mind on you and makes this discussion largely unproductive.

I’m not sure is the answer

Currently I’m just sheeping titus due to my two pushes having been wrong so far

I am uneasy about how you/A50 have interacted all game especially given that you’ve doubled down on it. Idk if you would both do this as scum but I think one of you could be pocketing the other

Idk why you’re dismissing ydrasse as scum really? Like I said I think that a double bus is plausible but one on one off is probably the most likely? Which would mean if it’s not you it’s A50

If I have to make a gut decision on 1 of you/A50 being scum my vote is on you. That doesn't make A50 not scum but I think there are other scumspects.

I thought ydrasse was likely scum throughout day 2 until a reread, her actions and trajectories don't make sense as scum. Unless the idea is that town was left to create all of the pushes and scum was fine with doing nothing while Mohab was wagoned.

[RCEnigma]

Also, 726 is probably the single hangup I have on putting Menalque with Mohab. But it's not super solid since I know it's fakeable.

[RCEnigma]

I will say it makes a lot of sense that if one scum bused then they both bused so happy to look at the Mohab wagon with a fresh eye.

I'd agree it looks a lot more likely. No buss means it's me or A50. A50 doubled down on SS elim yesterday. If it's me there was a ton of unnecessary cross-bussing going on.

My gut says Raya but menalque and Titus were both set on ydrasse.

[RCEnigma]

Keep in mind SS had the opportunity to hammer on snow day 1 and didn't. Not sure how that fit into scum plans.

[RCEnigma]

wagonomics tell me rce should be a huge red flag. lol. he's also overwhelmingly competent. i could really use a peace of mind injection :p

Don't you put that pressure on me Worstie!

[RCEnigma]

The Titus kill also puts the spotlight on you, but kind of unnecessarily so that it feels like a statement (if that makes sense) and I don't know who else wants to make a statement apart from you.

This really resonates with me. I was thinking something similar (but less eloquent). the Titus kill makes a lot of sense as a deadpan kill from Ydra and a small amount of sense as a wifom kill from Raya given the way she opened the day but I'm really not sure that's a kill from a50 or rce.

Obviously you never get over the wifom with this until post game.

Would I make this kill? Yes. Would A50? Absolutely. Mostly for this discussion and not why x person was chosen as the NK.

I considered going back on my A50 read briefly (because the case on SS yesterday could have been for show). But scum chose to reveal Mohab was bussed. The motivation could be as simple as keeping the Poe wide. But A50 was right in stating that if either him or I were scum we would have escaped.

A50 escaping leaves 3 slots on the Mohab wagon + me with already strong ties to A50. SS can most definitely lay low and get my Lynch through in that scenario.

It doesn't work as much with me escaping but the connection to A50 would be hard to ignore.

[RCEnigma]

Like sands in an hourglass, so to, are the days of our lives.

[RCEnigma]

This question is a bit leading TW but how likely do you think it is that SS redirects scum agenda upon replacing in?

For the hypothetical say wagons are forming on town but scum aren't interacting with the wagons. Just in general how do you think SS approaches his new scum partners OOT?

[RCEnigma]

The timeframe I was getting at was moreso around his rep in itself and not his day 2 play. Specifically his rep in prompted some wagon movement out of Raya and a case could be made they spawned out of suggestions via SS.

I don't think it's Ydrasse but I had ydrasse with SS as one of the most likely if SS flipped scum and I think it has to do with lack of interaction day 1 but I'm not solid on that.

His mini spat with Raya day 2 just looked really contrived from the outside looking in and even as it was playing out I thought it looked awful but I could see SS leaving that interaction as a red herring.

I haven't really seen Raya as townie as everyone else seems to. The only thing that makes me think hmm town is probably more likely to do this is when Raya defaulted her vote back to Frederick after agreeing he likely towntold. It's offbeat enough to be town just blanking on what's going on.

[RCEnigma]

I'm actually probably more suspicious of you than Raya than A50 atp - it's also kinda PoE-ey but like.

I don't mind you suspecting me. It would help me more if it was any of the unconfirmed pushing in my direction but you suspecting me is paranoia that I understand. I'm not particularly worried, I think there is enough to support that I'm just town here. At least enough to dissuade the confirmed from losing the game on my elim.

[RCEnigma]

His mini spat with Raya day 2 just looked really contrived from the outside looking in and even as it was playing out I thought it looked awful but I could see SS leaving that interaction as a red herring.

This is definitely astute.
I think the reverse is true for his comment about SS/Ydra being ridiculous in a way? Unless the last scum is A50 he's intentionally left little breadcrumbs or red herrings to his partner & the set miselim. I have this wonky feeling we're meant to be reading into his decision to leave before his partner but I also don't really feel inclined to do that

Asking why he escaped is the kind of wifom I don't really want to get into. It's just as useful as asking why his partner didn't without knowing his partner.

[RCEnigma]

friendly reminder scum made the decision to clear Fred (even tho he was p unlikely aligned with Mohab but whatever) - do we think Raya allows that kind of loose end in her iso as endgame wolf?

It wasn't actually an option. The consensus was that his towntell was genuine. He's the closest thing to a universal townread we had day 1. If there is anything interesting in who scum chose to confirm it won't be found in Frederick, Umlaut, or Eevee. All 3 were widely townread and predictable flips. Maybe more townpoints to A50 for that?

[RCEnigma]

Asking why he escaped is the kind of wifom I don't really want to get into. It's just as useful as asking why his partner didn't without knowing his partner.

sure. but every piece of info they've made public has happened via scum agency. their decisions are the most pertinent alignment indicative factors in the game. so I don't think we should go down that particular rabbit hole but I think we should be wary.

I agree but the problem is, we as the uninformed will certainly come up with more scenarios for why than the scenario that actually played out. Scum have 1 plan and we have unlimited possibilities.

[RCEnigma]

soulread: Titus would engage me about the idea of scum!A50

Make A50 call me scum and I'll scum case him.

[RCEnigma]

I had a sudden epiphany that it might be RCE aaa

RCE — has felt off all game. Has been pursuing the ‘easiest’ misguillotine in me for the last 2 days. His engagement with me has felt evasive and surface level. Has been trying to suggest that A50 should be cleared if we flip him, but again, possibly trying to just create negative associations there where only 1 is scum.

Would anyone like to talk to me about it? Does anyone know RCE well? How does this hold up? ^

~Eva

Self meta here but I'm not that aggressive with mislynches as scum. Typically I make reasonable accusations and let town persuade themselves that the lynch I want is scum. A50 is really the only player in this list that has played against scum me and furthermore with town me and every variation in between (except 3p, but he modded my 3p win).

Not to say my case against menalque wasn't reasonable but I actively pursued it with the frame of mind that Menalque was 1.) Scum and 2.) At worst town with too much baggage surrounding his slot to be in endgame AND would be entering with a wrong read on my slot.

[RCEnigma]

As a general rule if I'm lurky with occasional 'analysis' and readslist that are generally agreeable and sensible then I'm probably scum.

[RCEnigma]

Mood.

[RCEnigma]

Like.... I want you to take the time to reconsider your Raya read but you and TW are the only two active confirmeds and are adamantly against Raya!scum.

But like I went back to Rayas day 1 and their voting pattern goes town -> town -> town -> town -> town -> sheep on scum but preferred vote being town. Minimal interaction with either Mohab or SS aside from non alignment indicative quips both ways, never discussion etc. I think that serves as a deep wolf slot and could surface level explain SS escaping. I'm not taking the Titus kill into account here though.

Rayas voting in general is just chaotic so grain of salt or whatever. But if it's just going to be a circle of ydrasse or me then I don't really see the point in dragging the game out.

[RCEnigma]

2240 is so underdeveloped it makes me Anxious but I don't know if scum!rce doesn't just take the Ydra elim for the win

Scum!rce makes this play for sure. I'd resist the consensus lynch so town is more likely to feel safe voting there knowing I'm reluctant to put a vote down. Then hammer. ???. Profit.

[RCEnigma]

Would I make this kill? Yes. Would A50? Absolutely. Mostly for this discussion and not why x person was chosen as the NK.

You sure about that?

Interesting. But wouldn't you agree you looked pretty bad going into D2? I'm going to reread RCE soon and will report back with what I find. But at the same time, this hurts really bad if it's just Ydrasse and I'm swaying everyone from the correct solve.

~Eva

I would not agree and I didn't go into day 2 with the mindset that I looked bad either. Just that menalque was likely scum.

[RCEnigma]

I feel like... I could possibly make points against RCE, but I don't know if this hurts us, and scum!Ydrasse might just hop on and be like /sure, given she said she preferred anyone but herself or something along those lines.

Like I think day 2 is the biggest piece for discerning my alignment. Ydrasse/A50/menalque were all wagons that could reasonably be pushed through and would be safe to be on. We all know I can't be scum with any of them so day 2 I would have been purposely cutting off mislynch options for myself by defending A50 and then ydrasse at the height of her wagon. Then resisting the Montosh wagon in favor of SS.

Then add SS escaping into the mix as opposed to me escaping (already having a slim possible lynchpool) and foregoing the chance to throw suspicion on A50's slot via our association. I think it should be clear I'm not scum here but ya know.

[RCEnigma]

I think S_S is a better escape if you/S_S was the team.

Really? SS only feasibly has to sway 1 unconfirmed to win. The way day 3 went worst case for SS is a 1v1 with either Raya or A50, likely A50 and me escaping puts A50 under fire. SS doesn't even really have to bring that up, the confirmed town most certainly will since it's the obvious lead.

[RCEnigma]

SS is capable of like whimsically noninteracting with either alignment as scum

I generally don't interact with SS as either alignment, I'll find a couple games where this is the case.

[RCEnigma]

I know SS' playstyle! He Comes As He Wishes, getting a quality interaction with him is a combo of either trying and/or being lucky and I absolutely don't think you're the type of person who would heavily go out of his way to try and force it. No need to prove anything.

This is more for eevee. I've even found the perfect example of it with the added bonus of highlighting Menalque grossly misreading me for multiple days on pretty much the same grounds as this game.

Here is Pokemon upick

[RCEnigma]

VOTE: Eevee we can end.

[RCEnigma]

Lol, I'd be less disappoint than I am now.

[RCEnigma]

I feel like the difficulty to turn the "feeling" that I'm scum into a tangible case with credible reasoning is more indicative that I'm town than it is that I'm scum.

[RCEnigma]

I always hate defending myself. Because duhhh, look at my townie ass being town.

[RCEnigma]

The only things that point to me are voting Snow day 1 and SS defending me as town after my wagon died out.

[RCEnigma]

-SS spew
-menalque push
-voted the slot that would later flip scum over multiple competing town wagons where I could have just voted any of them.
-A50 isn't confirmed
-Eevee was confirmed

Menalque frequently called me absent but from day 1 till this day phase I've been one of the more active and present slots working towards a solve. Today hasn't been centered on me nuts it's swung that way. Problem is I think the end result is still wrong even if the other confirmed decide maybe I'm town.

[RCEnigma]

The only things that point to me are voting Snow day 1 and SS defending me as town after my wagon died out.

Why do you think SS defended you?

I'm easily pocketed. The game I linked here earlier had FL playing towards my slot the same way to a successful scum win despite the fact I caught out scum almost immediately.

[RCEnigma]

It would help if you tried to defend yourself so we can see your reasoning

[RCEnigma]

The Eevee vote was jokish but VOTE: RCE I really do want this game over.

[RCEnigma]

For post game I think Raya is last scum. If it was ydrasse and I'm wrong I think she played pretty well.

[RCEnigma]

I'm a scummy/salty dude.

[RCEnigma]

sksksksksksksksksksksksksksksksksksk

Idk how to say that in duck, sorry.

[RCEnigma]

I've only ever self voted as town and this is confirmable. Do with this what you will.

[RCEnigma]

does RCE say that unless he's scum who knows it's a lie so isn't technically using a trust tell?

if he's town he's blatantly breaking site rules by using a trust tell

walk us through your thought process there RCE

~Eve

I call facts as they are. If I'm modkilled for it, well sorry I suppose.

Confirming this would take an absurd amount of time. More time than this game has. So as far as this list is concerned no one here can know if it's true or not.

Also I just say things as I think them. There isn't a process.

[RCEnigma]

Ehh it is a trust tell. I might have fubar'd this game.

[RCEnigma]

Unfortunately all the reasons for scumreading A50 are also reasons to townread him. I'm pulling from at least year old meta here but scum!50 is more likely to me to have xyz reasons so and so is scum over him. Especially since his position all game hasn't been the most comfortable.

[RCEnigma]

TW MVP. I wasn't voting from A50'S pocket.

[RCEnigma]

Frederick was key as well. But I think that's more just his willingness to try everything. TW bit on it though. Also this is PFUP.

[RCEnigma]

I think if we saw eye to eye at any point past day 1 then SS could have realistically been the day 2 or day 3 wagon. I still wasn't voting out of A50'S pocket.

I acknowledged it had to be A50 or Raya and I just wanted it to be Raya lol.

[RCEnigma]

I brought up how easy I was to pocket later with the FL example. Just tell me nice things about me.

[RCEnigma]

Are you scum once again, S_S?

I am not.

Sure. I haven't said anything indicative of my alignment yet.

Say it ain't so SS.

He indeed did not say anything indicative of his alignment.

[RCEnigma]

Ngl that paranoia was a big reason I pushed it hard on day 3. So fmpov if you live day 3 it's highly probable you don't escape that night for the same reasons A59 didn't escape. Then it's lylo with you (who has a strong tie with day 1 elimmed scum) that is hard to overlook.

Also I was not ready to lose to scum!menalque who would have been caught dead to rights and then we look back and think man we could have won the game by day 2 if we weren't a town of waffles.

[RCEnigma]

Tbf I've only ever heard praise for your scum game.

[RCEnigma]

Ehh I think I view elimming lurk prone slots as policy lynching. Winning or losing when that's the scum makeup is underwhelming either way, makes me just....not want to play in the first place.

[RCEnigma]

With point 2.) You were trying to get that across in game but like. You held both stances at one point and neither of them are really attention grabbing because neither is more likely than the other. Going into day 1 it was agreed bussing was a negative utility play for scum and they busses anyway when they had every opportunity to just...not.

[RCEnigma]

Like worst case for scum is Mohab/Mae votes snow and they go down day 2 for it but with 0 confirmed going into the day. I wouldn't even have blamed them for a survivalistic vote there.

I'd be a hypocrite because I literally voted myself over having to Lynch ydrasse but it's not super scummy to put yourself first day 1.

[RCEnigma]

That's fair, I don't think you're wrong.

Pedit:

It still would have been one on one off. Mohab had the chance to hammer multiple times. This is honestly what kept my vote on Snowblaze.

If it played out like that they could have easily played towards tying you and Mohab together and you resisting would have just looked like distancing. So there were better plays, which is why I couldn't really rule out one or the other.

Scum already showed they were willing to play the sub optimal path by choice. With that in mind I can't say they definitely didn't double buss.