Newbie 2038: Elements [Game Over]

[72offsuit]

Do you think this is a straight-forward game?

[fferyllt]

My day did not turn out as expected!

I'm here now and and starting work on meta stuff. I'll check in for posts occasionally.

Y r u focusing your efforts on a townread rather than pressuring a scumread?

Because I want to be sure of my read since I stood athwart your elim yesterday. I want to be sure I was right to do that. I am still angsting about it due to screwing up a very similar situation in a game that ended about a couple weeks ago.

If I'd had time after replacing in at the end of Day 2 I would have done at least some meta research on you and a couple other players then.

What time is it where you are at?

Not addressed to me, but US Pacific time (UTC-8). My sleep is haywire, though. No telling when I'll be up and working on the game.

Had you voted for me yesterday how likely do you think I was to be elim'ed?

I thought chances were pretty high. I would have put you at E-1 when I said I wouldn't vote you.

[fferyllt]

My day did not turn out as expected!

I'm here now and and starting work on meta stuff. I'll check in for posts occasionally.

Y r u focusing your efforts on a townread rather than pressuring a scumread?

Because I want to be sure of my read since I stood athwart your elim yesterday. I want to be sure I was right to do that. I am still angsting about it due to screwing up a very similar situation in a game that ended about a couple weeks ago.

If I'd had time after replacing in at the end of Day 2 I would have done at least some meta research on you and a couple other players then.

What time is it where you are at?

Not addressed to me, but US Pacific time (UTC-8). My sleep is haywire, though. No telling when I'll be up and working on the game.

Still no reads list. Just more waffle.

So, same POE as before (Spangled, Muh) minus Muh. I have someone town/leantown from before who shouldn't be. Partway through meta-ing you I kinda doubt I'm going to find a smoking gun. Which is a relief.

So far in the 7 games I picked out of your ego search I haven't run across a 1v1 that's as heated and lengthy as the one with JDye. But, there are other markers, particularly textual body language that look like they differentiate your town vs scum play. You look more comfortable playing town. I'll go into a little more detail after I read the last three game isos. I found a found a game of yours that I had observed while it was going on: Sneks! I was meta-stalking Cabd during that game. It was before I started playing again. I expect he's meta-stalking me in this one. I didn't remember much about your play from when I was spectating the game, but it's one of the two scum games I found in your recent games.

[fferyllt]

Up past midnight. :/

But, 72 metadive done.

72offsuit

Town
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=84499 (Newbie)
viewtopic.php?f=50&t=84118 (Newbie)
viewtopic.php?f=50&t=84085 (Newbie)
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=84399 (Newbie)
viewtopic.php?f=50&t=83106 (Newbie)

Scum
viewtopic.php?f=50&t=83923 (Newbie)
viewtopic.php?t=82578 (Mini Normal - replaced out early day 2)

The two scum game ISOs were different. One is a Newbie game and the other is a Mini Normal (13 players) which is probably the source of the differences.

In the Newbie scum game there were far fewer text speak type abbreviations compared to here. Sentences were longer, and few abbreviations. And there was much less punch in the word choices. The posts come off less aggressive sounding than his town Newbie games. As he was under pressure his posts got shorter and shorter.

In the Mini Normal 72 replaced out, but was in the game long enough to make > 50 posts. Many of the posts were very long. He did some cursory meta research on a player, something didn't notice in his newbie games. He did detailed reads lists and detailed ISOs. There were lots of quotewalls, and fewer interactive posts. Very few posts that looked like phoneposting.

Town Newbie games vary somewhat. Sometimes he's very playful in RVS phase. Sometimes he steps up into the SE role and explains theory, links the wiki, etc. I think he feels more comfortable phone posting in town games (or his schedule varies over time). He seems to start games with the assumption that nobody is town, and lets players prove themselves, or not. This leads to a lot of false positives.

I didn't notice a lengthy 1v1 like he had with JDye, so I didn't see the same degree of aggravated looking posts as here. He bounces around from scumread to scumread and back. Wagon building looks pragmatic.

So yeah, this looks like Town 72

.

[Egix96]

On why muh, the ideas I had for why. I know a bunch of these can be WIFOM, but I'll put the less WIFOMy first.

- hitting town who wasn't going to be protected and might have been investigated
- low activity player might be a pr? maybe there was something that was read as a crumb

Now, the WIFOMy stuff. I'm giving what I see as the tier 1 reasoning, add as many levels of WIFOM as you want. Vaguely sorted from what I think is more likely to less likely

- scum want the 72 v ff 1v1 that seems likely to result
- someone wants to benefit from the fact that they unvoted instead of pushing muh through
- someone wants to use muh being town to push people on that wagon
- sells narrative of spangled thinking scum have the game where they want it as wrong, or safebet as scum on the ropes as right
- scum want to push make someone suspicious based on muhs reads, as limited as they were

I could guess which one of these I think it is, but I'll keep it to myself if you'd rather.

I'm planning to have a go at rereading the whole game, but I likely won't have the free time to make a start on that until tomorrow.

Fair. I’d love a readslists though if you’re still around.

I mean, yes, that’s slightly hypocritical of me. But I’ll read the last few pages of yesterday soon and make one soon, I swear! and case 72, potentially

Eh, I feel like just doing a total reset since I feel like I've been letting my emotions get the better of me when pushing people.

Anyway, here goes.

[Egix96]

Vote Count 1.2

Lithium, ₃Li

— alkali metal, standard atomic weight 6.941, group 1, period 2, s-block

c4e5g3d5

(4): muh316, hunterr, cylstar, BipolarType2

72offsuit

(2): Egix96, c4e5g3d5

hunterr

(2): AGamblingPig, Mizzytastic

Mizzytastic

(1): 72offsuit

With 9 alive, it takes 5 votes to eliminate.

Deadline:

(expired on 2020-11-06 06:30:00)

I think that the speed at which the initial c4e5 wagon formed is a point in favour of that slot being town.
Cyl's vote seemed like it wasn't a coincidence (she just figured out how to vote but that's who she chooses?) but BT2slot also looks bad from this because their vote was passed off as RVS.

[72offsuit]

Vote Count 1.2

Lithium, ₃Li

— alkali metal, standard atomic weight 6.941, group 1, period 2, s-block

c4e5g3d5

(4): muh316, hunterr, cylstar, BipolarType2

72offsuit

(2): Egix96, c4e5g3d5

hunterr

(2): AGamblingPig, Mizzytastic

Mizzytastic

(1): 72offsuit

With 9 alive, it takes 5 votes to eliminate.

Deadline:

(expired on 2020-11-06 06:30:00)

I think that the speed at which the initial c4e5 wagon formed is a point in favour of that slot being town.
Cyl's vote seemed like it wasn't a coincidence (she just figured out how to vote but that's who she chooses?) but BT2slot also looks bad from this because their vote was passed off as RVS.

Garbage. The first wagon almost never gets kicked

[72offsuit]

You are quoting post 78 which is RVs phase

[72offsuit]

If you want to do wagon analysis, analyse this stage of the game for me.

[72offsuit]

Vote Count 1.9

Neon, ₁₀Ne

— noble gas, standard atomic weight 20.180, group 18, period 2, p-block

AGamblingPig

(3): cylstar, 72offsuit, Mizzytastic

cylstar

(2): muh316, Egix96

muh316

(2): AGamblingPig, c4e5g3d5

72offsuit

(2): safebet222, JDye

With 9 alive, it takes 5 votes to eliminate.

Deadline:

(expired on 2020-11-06 06:30:00)

^

[72offsuit]

Egix notable absentee from end of day yesterday and start of day today when suicide massclaiming on non-LYLO was being suggested

[72offsuit]

Caught up!

Town

Mizzy's stances come off hesitant, but it's easy to follow her trajectory on her reads. She's also concerned about the game's health and I wonder if that's something that she carries well in her scum games, but I don't have time to meta and that wouldn't be a top priority if I did.

72 would be more of a meta priority because his playstyle in this game would work for scum. I just think his pushes would go in different places. The heavy pushes often followed up with a post about players he'd compromise-vote on make me a little nervous. I dunno why putting percentages on scum likelihood bug me as much as the do. 72's percentage post on JDye, beyond that squick, do indicate that his read isn't binary. There is some nuance even though he's tunneling.

JDye - I was predisposed to like this slot from about page 2 because I really like the original occupant's posts. Nothing AI to it. I spectated JDye's first game. I feel like the effort to apply lessons learned from that game are genuine and are probably town-indicative. This may be a me-problem because I'm not filtering out enough of the mutual tunnel, but I feel like JDye hasn't put as much effort into sorting other players as Day 2 has progressed.

Lean Town

egix is the player I'm most familiar with, which isn't saying a whole lot! He was town in a recent newbie game that I modded and his play looks very similar here. I feel like his playstyle would work ok in both alignments, and with more time I want to meta dive and see if the little flickers of humor and annoyance (mostly via emotes) I'm seeing here also show up in his scum game.

Safebet - I smile EVERY TIME I see this avatar. I liked his initial catchup post, and agreed with it more at that point in my readthrough than I do at this point. He's asked a lot of questions given his overall content that felt relevant to what was going on at his active times in the thread. One post that pinged, although it turned out to be justified, was this comment to Gambling Pig.

Welp, Looks like I'm a goner. I'm vanilla townie. Hopefully my lynching will give you all the info you need to make better choices tomorrow.

Good luck town.

While you're around, care to give us any thoughts on the game?

Seemed harsh, and the use of "us" there pinged. In general, I see that kind of phrasing more often from scum than town. Later posts by other players were more harsh, but by then it looked like Gambling Pig wasn't going to get much in the way of last thoughts into the game threads.

I thought I'd want to do a full reads list when I started, but, I want to run my fingers through some isos before I try to gather thoughts on the POEs.

Empty reads list that says almost nothing and doesnt even encompass all players.
As generalist and wishy washy as possible. Offers zero quotes to actually back up the reasons posited what gave her these vibes

JDye and Egix super shallow meta reads, "oh he played like that last game therefore he must be same alignment here"

Zeroing in on the use of the word "us" as an aspect of scumminess of a player that FF townreads/leans???

[Egix96]

Mizzy - Liking shared perspective at beginning of 90 and that they saw town thinking in Gamblepig in 103 who could easily have been pushed as LHF.

Cylstar posts 104, 105 are actually kinda terrible, still don't get why people had reservations on that.

I was hoping this would be doing more to change my mind so far
This is kinda awkward doing all this from tablet so I'll continue once on laptop later.

[72offsuit]

Mizzy - Liking shared perspective at beginning of 90 and that they saw town thinking in Gamblepig in 103 who could easily have been pushed as LHF.

Cylstar posts 104, 105 are actually kinda terrible, still don't get why people had reservations on that.

I was hoping this would be doing more to change my mind so far
This is kinda awkward doing all this from tablet so I'll continue once on laptop later.

105 is a bit over-explainy

What do you make of Mizzy then eventually voting for Gambling Pig then?

[Egix96]

Egix notable absentee from end of day yesterday and start of day today when suicide massclaiming on non-LYLO was being suggested

Most of EoD happened while I was asleep, and I've had other priorities lately.

[Egix96]

Vote Count 1.2

Lithium, ₃Li

— alkali metal, standard atomic weight 6.941, group 1, period 2, s-block

c4e5g3d5

(4): muh316, hunterr, cylstar, BipolarType2

72offsuit

(2): Egix96, c4e5g3d5

hunterr

(2): AGamblingPig, Mizzytastic

Mizzytastic

(1): 72offsuit

With 9 alive, it takes 5 votes to eliminate.

Deadline:

(expired on 2020-11-06 06:30:00)

I think that the speed at which the initial c4e5 wagon formed is a point in favour of that slot being town.
Cyl's vote seemed like it wasn't a coincidence (she just figured out how to vote but that's who she chooses?) but BT2slot also looks bad from this because their vote was passed off as RVS.

Garbage. The first wagon almost never gets kicked

A bit uncalled for to use that word when I'm just giving my opinion.

[72offsuit]

Egix notable absentee from end of day yesterday and start of day today when suicide massclaiming on non-LYLO was being suggested

Most of EoD happened while I was asleep, and I've had other priorities lately.

Can see that from your 44 lacklustre posts.

[72offsuit]

Vote Count 1.2

Lithium, ₃Li

— alkali metal, standard atomic weight 6.941, group 1, period 2, s-block

c4e5g3d5

(4): muh316, hunterr, cylstar, BipolarType2

72offsuit

(2): Egix96, c4e5g3d5

hunterr

(2): AGamblingPig, Mizzytastic

Mizzytastic

(1): 72offsuit

With 9 alive, it takes 5 votes to eliminate.

Deadline:

(expired on 2020-11-06 06:30:00)

I think that the speed at which the initial c4e5 wagon formed is a point in favour of that slot being town.
Cyl's vote seemed like it wasn't a coincidence (she just figured out how to vote but that's who she chooses?) but BT2slot also looks bad from this because their vote was passed off as RVS.

Garbage. The first wagon almost never gets kicked

A bit uncalled for to use that word when I'm just giving my opinion.

I express my strong distaste for a useless post that seems more intended to mislead and confound town that it does to solve the game.

[72offsuit]

than*

[72offsuit]

While you are here. Please comment on wagons in vote count in post 289. Dont need an indepth analysis
Want your gut feel read now.

[Egix96]

Vote Count 1.9

Neon, ₁₀Ne

— noble gas, standard atomic weight 20.180, group 18, period 2, p-block

AGamblingPig

(3): cylstar, 72offsuit, Mizzytastic

cylstar

(2): muh316, Egix96

muh316

(2): AGamblingPig, c4e5g3d5

72offsuit

(2): safebet222, JDye

With 9 alive, it takes 5 votes to eliminate.

Deadline:

(expired on 2020-11-06 06:30:00)

^

That VC has errors, when I click the names it takes me to the wrong posts, where cyl/Mizzy voted other slots.

[72offsuit]

Who cares. Dont click on the name hyperlinks.

[72offsuit]

Stop stalling

[Egix96]

Need to consolidate on a kick for today with deadline fast approaching, and need enough time for a claim as well.

The fact cylstar is at E-2 and was still sitting on a solo GamblingPig wagon, whom noone really expressed interest in kicking throughout the thread, ie not being survivalistic, alone points towards more likely !towncyl than !scumcyl imo.

I could totally join you there. I'm more mixed on cyl but I agree with your take on Pig, think you are probably town (other than a weird relationship with the hunterr slot but that'd be a pre flip associative) and cyl basically hasn't responded to pressure so seeing how she respond to this might be more helpful. And you are right on the consolidation totally.

Yeah, I've talked myself into it

VOTE: AGamblingPig

Bit surprised by your reads list (no town leans at all, really?) but I think you'd know it looks weird and could manufacture one or two as scum to make it stand out less.

Nvm, found it. Haven't got far enough to see the context tho.

[Egix96]

While you are here. Please comment on wagons in vote count in post 289. Dont need an indepth analysis
Want your gut feel read now.

Woooow it's almost like cylstar is conf scum
Should focus more on offsuit/safebet/Jdye