TM 2021 - Black Flag Nightless

[lilith2013]

at your behest I will relay this request;
no need to feel ashamed when he bests you at your game,
although I’m not allowed to quote so this point is kind of moot.

[lilith2013]

back to game-related content: I think auro has decent chance of being scum regardless of what infinity flips

[Menalque]

Also, like, I don’t think me voting math is that surprising lili: I already said that if infinity!town that’s where I’d wanna go tomorrow. I’m not sure there’s that much to be lost in reversing the order, but I’ll switch back to infinity if there isn’t support for this, I wanna end day shortly

I don’t think it’s an unreasonable vote? more asking because of wagoning things do you know what I mean

to be honest I don’t even know what I mean

Not... exactly? Basically, full disclosure, this is from a practical POV: I would like to kill in (infinity, math) until scumflip. If there’s not scum then I’ve fucked up p badly, so be it, that can’t be helped, but I think there’s decent odds there’s scum in there, probably >rand odds. I’ve fought all day for infinity and still think a lot would be resolved by flipping him — eg I think we almost always just kill in (Johnny and chenn) the next two days then reevaluate if the game isn’t over. However, I feel less confident on infinity than I did earlier — this may be because I’ve more or less made it clear what to do to get a TR from me (engage me in good faith, try to focus beyond small areas) and so he’s just... done that. He still hasn’t towned it up at all like he did in PyP imo, but he has improved.

Math coming in, proposing a big grand strategy, and then getting super shitty when I wanted to verify that it’s actually a strat that’s good for town is... dubious. Especially as I think he’d have used the fact that he proposed the strategy to try to ensure he was in the townbloc (where, if he’s scum, that definitely... weakens the strat and makes it easier for scum because one of them is fairly safe from elim). I also dislike his points that I don’t want a townbloc when among my opening posts I said something very along the lines of “if I can just find like 3 other town I’m confident in, ideally 4, then the game is basically won”. Which is not precisely talking about townblocs but which is thinking in that sort of way — successfully PoEing scum. Then there’s koba basically having just lazily tunnelled me/super for the entirety of the game after my rep in. I just don’t get good vibes from how math is playing this, and his lack of reading is concerning to me. I dislike that he’s pushing me without having read my ISO, and I dislike how quickly his suspicion of fb disappeared as soon as I *asked* about his strat. Wasn’t even critical, just asked about it.

So basically, I’m less sure on infinity and math has made the koba!slot worse imo. Which then brings me to my final reason for switching: I feel like it’s gonna be easier killing math today. I think infinity has sort of locked himself into a bad position as scum because he knows I’m very dubious of him but by insisting he super duper TRs me I think that’s a hard place to pivot out of it I push him tomorrow for instance (which I will prob be doing if math doesn’t flip scum). Whereas I feel like it’s going to be another absolute fucking slogfest to elim math tomorrow if I *am* wrong on infinity, and so for that reason I think I’d rather reverse the order rn

[Menalque]

Alright I gotta run for a bit, lmk what you think of what I’m saying here lili?

I’d also like to hear from joqiza on the point. Actually, people in general can weigh in

[Menalque]

I also think (?) I’m townreading firebringer now

[lilith2013]

I think my main concern about wagoning math’s slot is that everyone seemed to turn on the koba slot at the same time. either we’re all town having some crazy telepathy or ???

but I also think chennis might be scum so idk how much to trust his assessment of the gamestate as being too... circlejerky, for want of a better word

[lilith2013]

well I meant to hit preview but hit submit instead

[lilith2013]

have to go do lots of work now but I’ll try to be back later

[Auro]

back to game-related content: I think auro has decent chance of being scum regardless of what infinity flips

Was that because I said I'd be considering eliminating you post Autumn/Chennis?

[Auro]

Re: Math slot - I'd like to hear if Nancy is following the game.

[joqiza]

So basically, I’m less sure on infinity and math has made the koba!slot worse imo. Which then brings me to my final reason for switching: I feel like it’s gonna be easier killing math today. I think infinity has sort of locked himself into a bad position as scum because he knows I’m very dubious of him but by insisting he super duper TRs me I think that’s a hard place to pivot out of it I push him tomorrow for instance (which I will prob be doing if math doesn’t flip scum). Whereas I feel like it’s going to be another absolute fucking slogfest to elim math tomorrow if I *am* wrong on infinity, and so for that reason I think I’d rather reverse the order rn

This is similar to my current reasoning.

In my view, a block of myself/Menalque/Lilith/Auro probably wins the game, with the possibility that one of the other three might be a deepwolf. If there's like more than 1 wolf in there than my view of the game is cracked. My current interest is in finding one more slot to add to that block that I feel is most likely to be a villager and who has the least partner equity with the slots currently in the bloc that have deepwolf potential.

Following that, Autumn's response of "okay, well you/Mena/Lilith are all obvtown, let's find one more villager who's not me," and then voting the person I said he's most likely to be teamed with, is fairly disarming. town!Autumn is an asset because, he, like, actually has a pulse and is following this game and living in roughly the same universe I'm living in, and simultaneously, scum!Autumn has kind of backed himself into a corner and has made it extremely difficult for himself to pivot without becoming blatantly obvious.

I think most of Math's posts so far have sucked. I'm willing to entertain that they just suck cuz he had to sub into a jungle of a game and he's not able to parse it yet. If they continue to suck he can eat rope.

I really just want to work on finding one more villager for the block and then pushing that block through and anyone who gets in my way can die. If people think the block is unpure they can say it with their chest instead of making vague histrionics about townblocks or deepwolves. In my view the block wins the game for town, so if you're playing against what I believe to be town's win condition you can get chopped. If you think my view of the game is wrong then bring me reasons, I'm listening.

[lilith2013]

back to game-related content: I think auro has decent chance of being scum regardless of what infinity flips

Was that because I said I'd be considering eliminating you post Autumn/Chennis?

you seem to admit that I’m pretty universally townread without having ever stated a read on me yourself in either direction. Also you seem to not be making much effort to sort me if you actually do have doubts about my slot. it seems like you’re randomly paranoid of me for like 10 seconds at a time and then can’t manage to fake it the rest of the time.

here’s the part I found contradictory to your recent statements about me

P(Town|Serious) is high.

And that's what concerns me; it isn't a

good

proposition.

And if 4+ townread players are able to align their reads and generate meaningful wagons I wouldn't be as bothered that they would "intimidating everyone else into submission", I'd much rather prefer that to everyone just voting wherever, "compromising" on some read at the end of the day and achieving nothing of substance.

This was a good response, thanks for being willing to work with me even if we mutually dislike each other's

slots

. Although I might add that "4+ townread players" kind of doesn't exist at this state of the game.

And that's what concerns me; it isn't a good proposition

I don't disagree that it's a "bad" proposition in that it's unhealthy, just that it's a solid reason to tr the slot

I think they partially do? Super!slot, Lilith for starters

[Auro]

Incorrect. This wasn't a random bout of paranoia, it was evaluation of who I'd given confirmed flip information. I stated a "townread for now" on you.

[lilith2013]

why are you talking about partner equity if you think i’m town

where have you stated that you’re townreading me? your interactions around me have consisted of trying to discredit townreads on me and now saying I have partner equity for doing something that’s consistent with what I’ve done all game.

do you have reasons to townread johnny?

[Menalque]

Joqiza, how strong are you on johnny!scum? I’ll vote there if you’re very confident, but my concern is he really feels like a compromise slot, which I think both makes him more likely to be town and makes him a less useful flip if town compared to infinity/math

[Menalque]

Math also seems vaguely disingenuous if his whole thing is “a townbloc wins the game but only if I’m a member” is his position, which is kinda what it seems like to me

[lilith2013]

I had other thoughts about potential scum!auro but I can’t dedicate enough brainpower atm to flesh this out. It was mostly a vague brain thought that appeared and now I can’t get rid of it

[Menalque]

In my view, a block of myself/Menalque/Lilith/Auro probably wins the game,

I would seriously consider adding fb to this

I think he’s very offbase this game, and is being a bit lazy, but I think it does read like he’s solving in a lot of his interactions and I’m struggling to see what his aims are as scum

[lilith2013]

would prefer fb > auro in bloc I think. team likes fb

[Auro]

why are you talking about partner equity if you think i’m town

where have you stated that you’re townreading me? your interactions around me have consisted of trying to discredit townreads on me and now saying I have partner equity for doing something that’s consistent with what I’ve done all game.

do you have reasons to townread johnny?

... someone asked me "what if AL!scum Johnny!town Chennis!town", to answer the question I'd have to think about partner equity to AL, no?
And nope.

[Menalque]

would prefer fb > auro in bloc I think. team likes fb

[lilith2013]

was that not in direct response to this?

for some reason I thiught you were on Johnny please ignore me lol

I still don’t really feel comfortable personally voting infinity without (still, sorry ) having read the super/mena/infinity stuff. I will really really try to get to this today but to make it easier on myself I’m probably going to read but not post much other than my conclusion

You're fine with Johnny at lim-1 with double intent?

[Menalque]

I’m also not sure it’s exactly a bloc because of you/auro, fb/me, my diminished but still somewhat present auro paranoia

[Menalque]

Auro what do you think of fb again?

[Auro]

No, I think Johnny is a counterwagon to AL and will flip town.

do u think im scum? Cause ive been the biggest person against autumn wagon and i don't see who else is scum trying to ensure it doesn't happen?
maybe chennisden but who else?

do u think im scum? Cause ive been the biggest person against autumn wagon and i don't see who else is scum trying to ensure it doesn't happen?
maybe chennisden but who else?

I don't think they need to be explicitly loud voices, I think I'd go Chen then {Lilith/you} if game doesn't end.

It was a response to Fire's post. Someone asked for elaboration on this, and I answered.