Open 806: JK9++ (Game Over!)

[Shirou]

"Hi there, I guess I'm a player in this game now. I did catch-up shortly after replacing, but I wanted to gather my thoughts before posting.

I'm not very confident on my reads yet, but at the moment a tentative list would be that I think PP/Schivi are more likely town than not, and you can add Infinity there most of the time as well.

I believe Isis is above null but I'm still mulling over her skitter case, because it felt weird.

I've a weak gut town lean on implo, but intellectually speaking he shouldn't be far from null or below, but I'm looking forward to his future posts

I don't know how to place Bridge, NM, and other slots yet

I could see at least one of Hydra/Scipio/Ben being scum at the moment, and I would consider voting there today.

Overall Aaron/Implosion/Datisi are slots I need to see more before placing final judgement, but there's potential for a scum flip in this group

see you and good luck, I'm off to lunch now.

(I warn you to not expect too much activity though, unhappily)."

[Shirou]

Yes, that's a simple, good entrance. I very much like this new toned down version for general clarity even if it's not genuine/my exact thoughts.

"genuine stuff is overrated" sounds like a good slogan or something.

I'm truly going off now, it's the third time I'm saying this but third time is the charm, so bye and welcome to lurking until I feel the need to post something useful again.

[AaronFrost]

I wouldn’t say that’s true, or at least not more than normal

We see things in different ways but I think we’re doing quite a good job of being cohesive in the actual positions we’re taking even if we’re also explaining our own perspectives when it comes up

-QB

Yeah, if anything I think that fact that you both are being so transparent with your different takes is +town points for you two

[AaronFrost]

y

-QB

I think that claim is likely to resolve itself sooner rather than later and it's not really something I'd be interested in pursing on day 1, when i'm not super confident on ben dover being scum to begin with

this is just a scummy post

you shouldn't ask me why but if you must you shall

-seCret

I'm not gonna ask why but I already mentioned that my statement is probably false

[AaronFrost]

i also asked for schiavetto to be activated IC to simplify things

schiavetto doesn't need IC to activate

it's a town slot most likely

-seCret

I think I'm allowed to question this read though, so why is Schiavetto town?

[AaronFrost]

the equation for the probability of these numbers, which... i'm actually too dumb to actually make holy fuck, anyways, common sense tells me that it's fairly high, way higher than the odds of 3/4/5/6/7! "I" so anyone being a tracker would cc

Even the chance of getting 2 "I" is pretty low (2.25%) so maybe you're right, but the fact that no one has cc'd yet makes me trust the claim a tiny bit more.

Although being honest, tracker is probably one of the safer fakeclaims for scum in this setup.

This number is wrong. You calculated it by taking 0.15^2; this would be the probability that the *first* two letters chosen are I. The actual probability of getting exactly 2 I is (7 choose 2)(0.15^2)(0.85^5), around 21%.

remind me to never do math late at night again

[Shirou]

Ok, passing to say that while thinking about Isis slot, I remembered I did have experience with Isis in Chiptune, she was town/I was scum there, but still.

(I was under "Churros" alt there for what it's worth).

I don't know the significance of this but I thought I would share because I had forgot that game already.

[SirCakez]

Votecount 1.8

AaronFrost (4) - Schiavetto, ben dover123, Not_Mafia, Infinity 324
ben dover123 (3) - implosion, Datisi, Bridgeburners
Implosion (1) - PenguinPower

Not voting (5) - Scipio1, seCret hYdra, AaronFrost, Shirou, Isis

(expired on 2021-02-16 10:41:00) remain until day end

With 13 players alive, it takes 7 to reach a majority.

[Shirou]

Ok there's other reasons but I'm also failing to do other stuff so I checked the setup wiki here.

I remembered now why I thought C9++ wasn't a good setup, and it was because it was very unbalanced for town in my opinion if there was a SK, and the chances of SK in those setups seem pretty high although I haven't done any math.

Tracker claim isn't what I would call confirmable here, it's more like "In a world where Ben is town, if we keep him alive until a massclaim, we can potentially solve his slot indirectly" but overall that only applies to if Ben is town, otherwise we just wasted potential flip info only to still eliminate Ben in the massclaim.

Even in a hypothetical scenario where Ben is truly a tracker rather than scum, it at least confirms to us one letter of the setup for the eventual massclaim.

If we manage to flip one scum PR here in this scenario it would also be rather helpful to understand what is likely true or false in a massclaim. From what I understand mafia necessarily always has at least one PR here.

There's a very decent chance of only a 2 man team as well, and I probably should rethink my approach here a bit.

This setup feels very, very swingy. I think it's an interesting setup but not what I would call balanced.

[Shirou]

Implo is the math guy here so if I'm wrong correct me, but what would be a way to solve the Ben's claim would be for, if there is in the first place, a 1-shot Tracker to claim.

If a 1-shot Tracker claim, and there's no CC here to the Tracker claim itself, there's good chances that Ben slot is town.

If Ben is scum though that would out both our hypothetical 1-shot Tracker + real Tracker, so the risk is dare I say very high.

I would be interested in looking at other people comments to this. I don't see any other way than potentially letting Ben alive until D3 to sort out his claim if we don't do this.

In the world where he's town, there's also decent chances that there's a scum bus driver here, therefore if he claimed mismatching night actions we wouldn't know if he's simply lying about his role, or the action of the bus driver. It's also possible there's a mafia roleblocker, so he could claim RB'd.

He can also claim both bus drived (wrong results), and RB'd although that would be more of a scum claim because the possibility of both a bus driver + roleblocker is relatively unlikely compared to other options (3,125% or lower I think? I can be wrong here).

[Shirou]

I was indecisive about whether the optimal plan to confirm his claim is to let him alive up to D3, or until the massclaim, which can happen both at the same day but if we hit scum early we may delay the massclaim, but on another note I suppose that if Ben is actually the tracker, if we claim on D3 when D3 isn't the final day, we most likely would be giving scum the info about our PRs if scum didn't mess with his actions, and if scum did mess with his actions it's possible he'll simply be empty-handed on D3, or have contradicting actions because of bus driver.

I'm getting dizzy thinking of this. Overall Tracker isn't what I would call "confirmable" role other than in the very final day, but even in the final day his results can still be underwhelming?

I also suppose that if it's a 2 man team + no SK, D4 is the initial last day without a scum elimination before? So we wouldn't know if it's last day or not without SK shots?

But even if there's other shots during the night, it could be vigilante, and if we've triple shots it could still be double vigilantes although unlikely. We can only truly confirm SK with quad shots during the night, although if there's triple shots SK is likely.

This setup just has too many possibilities. It's confusing to do mechanical speculation without any confirmed information because of the variables.

[Shirou]

I hate this mechanical talk in fact

I would rather just evaluate Ben on what he has or not done in this game and proceed from there rather than the mess above hedging on what's optimal or not.

There's arguably optimal ways to solve this but I wouldn't put optimal and practical in this case in the same sentence so easily. I think I'll stand by the "if ben is scummy he dies, if ben sounds towny he lives" block in this game.

That was it from mechanical talk for me here. See you².

[Isis]

i also asked for schiavetto to be activated IC to simplify things

schiavetto doesn't need IC to activate

it's a town slot most likely

-seCret

Does dragon skim more as scum or town?

[Isis]

I'm not particularly impressed by skitter's scumgame. Sorry

[Isis]

ben should claim a hypothetical perceived visit for every slot in the game at the start of day 2, claiming truthfully for who he actually tracked and flipping a coin between reporting no-visit and his best guess at who he thinks other players would target for the flips that come up tails. Then when we massclaim on D4 or so or whatever we will find out whether or not he does not actually possess the arcane power that lets him see what other people do. The only mafia power to play around by killing him immediately is the 1-shot bus driver, and since that's not a 2 or 3 shot role there's no mechanical benefit to eliminating him on a day that's not right now or much much later.
This has an added benefit of publishing ben's townclears for his potential n2-3 nk death (scum have minimal means to generate nonlethal visits in this setup) without endangering roles that he viewed that might be more powerful than him.

explain to me how this isn't optimal. I'm pretty sure it's optimal and the only reason I don't see it happen more often is because people are lazy

[Isis]

I feel like Shirou spent 3 pages agonizing over the fact that he is in the part of his life before he discovered Read Triangles and is not yet in the blissful part of his life after he discovered Read Triangles

[seCret hYdra]

I feel like Shirou spent 3 pages agonizing over the fact that he is in the part of his life before he discovered Read Triangles and is not yet in the blissful part of his life after he discovered Read Triangles

wise words

-seCret

[seCret hYdra]

i also asked for schiavetto to be activated IC to simplify things

schiavetto doesn't need IC to activate

it's a town slot most likely

-seCret

Does dragon skim more as scum or town?

i'll let others answer this if they please, but i don't think i ever really do the comprehensive reading part very well

-seCret

[seCret hYdra]

I would rather just evaluate Ben on what he has or not done in this game and proceed from there rather than the mess above hedging on what's optimal or not.

if this is your desire then why are you giving me so much crap when i'm trying to do exactly that

-seCret

[seCret hYdra]

skip was the one who called us out first, and while I was slightly annoyed by it, I didn't scumread skip for it. It actually felt an honest take even if I don't agree with it.

Yeah you aren't the only one who noticed this. No offense but their contributions seem...nonexistent almost? Besides that weird progression.

what weird progression

and how the fuck are we not contributing

-seCret

However, ben added this to skip's remark and it reads like it was done in such a way as to try and enable skip to push us over this. Without sticking his own neck out. It's a backseat nudge he tries to give skip here, wrt us. Or at least that's how i read it. Especially considering that his first thought on our 'weird progression' was probably townie anyway.

-seCret

[implosion]

i think shirou has pocketed me much as bridgeburners pocketed penguin. that is to say that i am townreading him but probably shouldn't be, but am nonetheless

Implo is the math guy here so if I'm wrong correct me, but what would be a way to solve the Ben's claim would be for, if there is in the first place, a 1-shot Tracker to claim.

If a 1-shot Tracker claim, and there's no CC here to the Tracker claim itself, there's good chances that Ben slot is town.

I mean, there can't be a 1-shot tracker without a regular tracker. If there was a 1-shot tracker claim that we believed and no CC to the regular tracker claim then we'd lim the 1-shot tracker claim strictly before ben bc them being town would imply ben was town... but that's assuming that we actually want an actual tracker to cc if they exist (since there can be multiple trackers, among other reasons), etc.

I don't think there's really reason for a 1-shot tracker to claim unless we also do want to solicit counterclaims but we should only do that if we're like, definitely not eliminating ben otherwise because if we are then it'd be a waste. I don't really feel like this town is coordinated enough to really figure things like that out as a whole. I don't really think a counterclaim is necessary either way.

[implosion]

i'm inclined to say that useful posting at all right now is a little bit townish. The game is kind of volatile right now, I could imagine scum being scared to commit. I think infinity trying to realign things on me is town-indicative, though calling him town isn't exactly a hot take.

I actually like some of sechyd's recent posting, particularly 1184 particularly the first line therein particularly the part where he's addressing ben and the way that he addresses ben feels like a thing that I think scum often kind of avoid, the sort of genuine "hey could you please participate more :\" kind of line. Also the reassessing process I think though that's less so bc that could just be logical thinking.

[implosion]

also i just saw schiavetto's 1085.

"spent a solid chunk of time talking around the optics of the vote." => yes i did not like doing this and i wish i hadn't made the joke but what can you do.

The second paragraph, I'm not really sure what attention that was on the spot you're referring to that I'd be capitalizing on? I never really found them town but like was there really a lot of attention on their slot? there might have been but I didn't really notice it if so. But also

but to put it on skitters like that feels like it's just making it easier to detach himself from the vote if things go sotuh/recontextualize the push as needed depending on how things pan out.

This part is actually interesting because it's entirely possible that this is literally what is going on subconsciously in my head bc i kind of don't trust my reads (for a few reasons, chiefly rustiness and glut of townreads) but still feel the need to push them because, well, that's the game. So here we are.

I do think schiavetto's posting is still pretty town. I think him reacting to infinity calling for a new wagon on me in this way is pretty solidly not how scum react. They might say "sure" and jump on, or they might come up with some reason not to want to, but the whole tinfoil thing feels like town who has an actual internal thought process that they are actually using to inform how they're interacting with the game. I don't think it's made up.

[Datisi]

sorry if i helped make you feel that way, shirou. i don't think your walls are a waste, i don't wanna make you feel like you need to simplify your thoughts for us, i just don't really have experience trying to solve the game At Once and i'm often not sure what to make of such solving.

This has an added benefit of publishing ben's townclears for his potential n2-3 nk death (scum have minimal means to generate nonlethal visits in this setup) without endangering roles that he viewed that might be more powerful than him.

how does this publish ben's townclears in case he dies? tracker can't clear anyone (except in like edge cases, i think one of them happened last run), and we wouldn't even know who he really targeted if he gets killed before he tells us? or am i missing a lot of things here

also a Read Triangle wouldn't help shirou here, it isn't designed for gamestate reads ;_;

@seCrEt, the middle part of 1181

ben is probably scum who panic claimed a power role, thought it alone would be enough to save him for the day, and now he doesn't know what to post because he didn't expect it wouldn't be enough

[seCret hYdra]

@seCrEt, the middle part of 1181

scum!you is pickier on what fights you take, and especially less interested in drawing the attention on yourself
being assertive like that and 'demanding' someone to engage with you is something town!you does a lot

it's possible my towncredit towards you is a bit 'easy', but it's how i read you

-seCret