Newbie 2061 | Views of Tallinn | Town wins

[lendunistus]

Day 4 - Votecount 4.0

Votecount

catboi (1):

marcistar

Not Voting (3):

Lukewarm, catboi, Meuh

With 4 players alive, it takes 3 votes to eliminate a player.

Deadline:

(expired on 2021-05-10 16:00:00)

Vote history

marcistar votes catboi: Post #960

Past final votecounts

Day 1 Final Votecount: Post #425
Day 2 Final Votecount: Post #812
Day 3 Final Votecount: Post #899

[Meuh]

@Meuh, you said that you have a lot of experience playing with Marci, right? Can you weigh in on something that has stood out to me?

In your experience playing with her, is Marci normally particularly hesitant / apologetic as a town player? She seems very hesitant to make her claims without first making it clear that she is unsure and she also repeatedly set up an out of game reason why she might be underperforming as a town player. In my experience, town players seem more inclined to just confidently be wrong. But this can vary a lot by player

Spoiler:

before coming to this site, I mainly played with the same group of people over and over, and this was something I could use as a scum tell for some players, but we did have this one girl who was always super hesitent no matter what

Spoiler:

I don't have many reads rn I won't lie, it's kinda hard because it just seems like the same few people talking with others coming in once in awhile, and theres nothing all that solid, but I'll give my best shot

I get played soo easily I hope I don't get played this game tho.

before I 100% say cause its so hard to decide. (I just really dont know sorry )

I'm so sorry guys I have a lot of schoolwork to do rn, and dont feel like i can put effort in rn like i have in previous days

I hope i used the right post numbers im so scared of doing these kinds of lists cuz I tried it last game and by accident put the wrong number

Hmm, not sure exactly what I think..

I didn't really feel hella confident in anyone being scum earlier (like i had scum reads, but i wasn't confident in them...), Idk where to go I wanna make a vote that I think is scum instead of just going onto a wagon for the sake of an elim.. but with votes this spread out, i don't really see reactions to being voted..
I think despite what I want to do, that I should just stick within the already being voted because thats what'll be best for town.

Do you have suggestions..? I wanna hear whats the ideas of other people first... but I have a rough idea of what vote I would make.

i hope this helps..?

wait also heres my VOTE: meuh

i think my heads broken reading meuh is always so hard for me

--- I don't believe it. I could always be wrong

I'm sorry guys I was too pissed to play yesterday ;-; my brothers so annoying

that looks so big, but i wrote it as I was reading i'm sorry if its too much

i'm sorry i haven't been here so often. i feel so useless.

im useless because i've been focusing on hw instead of helping im sorry

I'm not really like 100% sure on this... but its the best idea i've got..
{snip}
This is the read i'm most confident in, so I'll be voting it VOTE: catboi, if its lukewarm... i've truly been tricked and i'll take the blame for this loss.

Alright so, is Marci occasionally apologetic, maybe a bit more than average? Yes. BUT, not this much. 119 sticks out to me, it feels off to me. 219, 228, 313, 513, 730 and 893 are all regular Marci posts to me, but the rest I feel at least a bit doubtful on. The idea that me and Marci suck at reading each other is something we both bring up pretty often, so that's not uncharacteristic, she feels like a more confident player in the 2 games I've played with her and that I've skimmed through.

Marci it will be hard to find you town at endgame if you keep not voting, we need your vote to be proactive so that vote logic is comprehensible in the game

i wont vote if i dont like the options is it bad to not vote if im not confident??? i dont wanna lynch a townie

harumi is who i thinks most scum so ill vote that then, but i dont want to vote anyone else, im not confident in anyone else being scum. VOTE: harumi

Here though for example, you can see that this isn't out of the ordinary from Marci, I've just noticed it a bit less while skimming?
I feel like I'm confbiasing myself but I do think she's extra defensive

The whole issue with this is that her whole pool of games are from not only town!Marci but vt!Marci. Being more careful about survival is something both scum and prs would do, so you could argue part of it is that she fears confrontation as a defense mechanism due to her bringing more value to the table; although I don't really view her hesitance as really helping her if she is PR and I don't think she's the kind of player to consciously change her playstyle much as PR, but with scum it's very hard not to.

[Meuh]

934 (and another post that i forgot which) tries to say im "scum trying to tie townies down to their partner" essentially, right? but wouldn't town be trying to keep their eyes out for possible duos?

I don't understand what point you're trying to make here, Marci? Scum want to tie town to their partners so that the partners are seen as duos with townies so the townies will be elimed afterwards.

[Meuh]

Ah, marci...so this is the path you've chosen. I'm assuming you're scum who sees pushing me as your best hope, but I'll give what you say a look.

Why would scum be committing to a wagon this early? Marci looks town for that vote imo

[Meuh]

the logic in 676 very much makes sense, with trackerxjailkeeper, we do just win the game if we get a singular scum elim, and that's what everyone thought the setup was at the time. Timing is very much weird though, right after voting VFP

[Meuh]

When I voted him on day 2, before not_mafia had even claimed, VFP immediately pushed back onto me. In this scenario,

if I were the mafia roleblocker, VFP bussing me would be an automatic loss

. mafia aren't going to make plays like this. I'd be telling him not to do it. And I'm the

only

one he pushes, for the rest of the day up until the point he's eliminated:

This is true, if we we're in A2 (which a VFPxCatboi) team would know here, rber dead means an insta-loss (goon doesn't, but rber does since jailkeeper/tracker can narrow our scumpool), so while Catboi pushing VFP doesn't clear him too much, VFP pushing him does prove a lot more

[catboi]

Ah, marci...so this is the path you've chosen. I'm assuming you're scum who sees pushing me as your best hope, but I'll give what you say a look.

Why would scum be committing to a wagon this early? Marci looks town for that vote imo

Huh? If she's scum here, she knows that I am correctly reading her and am unlikely to change my mind, so her best bet is to push me. Committing to a vote early in ELO isn't a towntell.

[Meuh]

i feel like part of the reason i'm liking catboi here is that i prefer his logic but that's not really AI, he just communicates messages and makes point i have an easier time agreeing with

[Meuh]

@Meuh, on the other hand, this is a post from catboi that stood out to me.

If T3 or marci express a willingness to vote me I'll claim.

Like it is hard to see this, and not think it is a soft pr claim.

It further irks me because at the time that he made this post, he only had 2 votes on him. So he was no where near being voted off, so it was not a "if someone is about to hammer me, I will claim my role as VT"

yeah it seems a bit of an early point to claim, and hinting pr makes a lot more sense as rber since being the more valuable member, being able to brush off the push on them with a pr claim could work.
Also if we look at the way Catboi assumed it was a doctor game, we could see this also as hinting pr, so Catboi would be fake-claiming doctor. The issue with that is that it would initiate a 1v1 between Catboi and the real pr, and if the scum team was going for a 1v1 (which idk why they'd do), they'd at least be sending VFP in. Maybe they were thinking that since the pr was jailkeeper (which they'd know at that point) that they could go after them for not claiming early in the day, but it doesn't really matter, trading rber for jailkeeper doesn't seem very worthwhile to me, especially considering that gamestate.
There's literally no reason for Catboi to fake claim pr here. It's one thing for behaviour to seemingly imply something but if this implication would be BAD for the scumteam, I don't understand how that post could be scummy.
The only way I can see scum!Catboi benefit from softing pr is to be able to brush off the push on him temporarily, and just go "no this actually wasn't softing pr" down the line since it isn't very blatant, but being able to ride that line between softing pr and just being town accidentally implying pr, and then also have people catch onto you, just doesn't seem like a worthwhile to me.

[Meuh]

Spoiler:

Meuh, which way are you leaning atm? Personally, I am struggling

Like, I read through Marci's iso, and I start leaning towards it being her, and then I read through catboi's iso and I start leaning towards it being him.

Can you explain your thinking? Vague statements like this are unhelpful.

Just for the record, since I've laid most of my cards on the table already:

Lukewarm? This post scared the hell out of me. Because in all my experience playing mafia, I often find scum say things like this at ELO. The fencesitting without visible commitment or analysis, I've seen it many times.

Now, that doesn't mean it's inherently scummy. Town can make posts that sound very scummy, and they can fencesit as well, especially in a situation like this. So it's a post town

can

make. But it's also a post scum

would

make, because when two townies are attacking each other scum want to seem like they're giving them consideration but don't want to make the first move. So I asked you because I want to see your thinking behind things, rather than just words about how you're feeling, so I can hopefully get a handle on whether it's believable.

Now, I'm not acting hastily and changing my mind on a single post here. I learned my lesson from doing that before. I'm not going to discard the evidence from all the rest of the game for a hasty judgment based on a paranoid read of something that only happened this game day. (in fact, when I was looking back at VFP's ISO, I felt his final comments toward you were somewhat un-partnery)

But as I'm being completely transparent with my thought process right now, I just felt I should be open with how I felt about this post. (If you're town, don't say stuff like this!)

Yeah Luke, while I'm here to support you, you need to form your own thoughts and commit to your own ideas, non-commitment isn't gonna get us anywhere, plus you need to support me too (ik I'm incredible but I can't solo-carry MELO ) You probably do quite a bit of that in your more recent posts but I haven't gotten to them yet
But yep, fence-sitting here is generally scummy, like at almost any point in the game but here especially, scum want to keep as many doors open as possible so they always have some sort of plan B and plan C if their main push doesn't turn out the way they want it to.

[Meuh]

Spoiler:

@Meuh, on the other hand, this is a post from catboi that stood out to me.

If T3 or marci express a willingness to vote me I'll claim.

Like it is hard to see this, and not think it is a soft pr claim.

It further irks me because at the time that he made this post, he only had 2 votes on him. So he was no where near being voted off, so it was not a "if someone is about to hammer me, I will claim my role as VT"

I thought at the time there were multiple people scumreading me and that it was possible I'd end up as the default wagon since there wasn't someone else people were really pushing.

I'm stubborn about claiming though, you can see it in the other game, where I got run up on day 1:

Yeah, I absolutely am not claiming unless there's intent to hammer, that'd be a bad idea. I'll vote Lone if necessary for self-preservation.

I don't think I really softclaim as either alignment, but

if I was going to hint at a PR as mafia I probably would just claim it rather than claiming VT.

I am not sure how that out-of-thread quote is supposed to clear you here?

In that game you said "I absolutely am not claiming unless there's intent to hammer" but then in this game, you said "If T3 or marci express a willingness to vote me I'll claim." while only having 2 votes on you. And that seems like two different approaches to take if you were VT in both games

And I am not sure that it would necessarially make sense for scum!you to follow thorugh with the claim, given the gamestate.

You made what could be taken as a soft claim in post 629, and then not long after Not_Mafia claimed doc in post 649. So I could see scum!you soft claiming, but changing direction once Not_Mafia claimed their role.

Reading through a duel iso between you and Not_Mafia makes it look like he thought the same thing. Since he knew he was the jailkeeper, and Marci had not been CC'ed, then you hinting at being a PR would have been a major red flag from his PoV.

Spoiler:

Did catboi just slip we're in Tracker/Doc/Rolecop

If T3 or marci express a willingness to vote me I'll claim.

I think Lukewarm is playing like obvscum, beyond that I don't have strong reads to leave

Did catboi just slip we're in Tracker/Doc/Rolecop

I made a guess.

Based on what?

Based on what?

based on T3 trying to draw out jailkeeper claims and me straight-up forgetting that jailkeeper+tracker could be a thing

T3 vote catboi

At first blush I took it as a soft claim. I think that multiple other players did too. If I am remembering correctly, both T3 and Marci commented on it, and like I showed in the spoilers, not_mafia voted not long after it.

I like the points being made here, makes sense to me!
Yeah Catboi's posting was being taken as soft-claiming to a degree, although I never voiced it I also had a moment where I was like "hold on... Catboi's doctor isn't he?" but then I had a second thought and decided he wasn't but I don't remember why? I wish I could but I have no clue
Using meta that he has an unwillingness to claim to justify a willingness to claim seems contradictory, makes Catboi scummy if anything.

[Meuh]

(but, again, self-meta doesn't mean a whole lot)

You can say that again. As of post 968, I was leaning pretty strongly towards Marci being the vote today, and really was just waiting to hear Meuh's response to post 965 before I settled in to that being the case I was going to build. But every time you have tried to defend yourself, I have been left less sure its her

Speaking of which, @Meuh can you make sure to respond to Post 965 - 968

Well, I thik if muy posting has been offputting you should remember what gets said today isn't the most important thing - the most revealing evidence is on all the days before this. I think getting dragged down because someone's posting in ELO sounds "off" to you is a mistake. Like how you sounding like you were fencesitting earlier pinged me, but I didn't flip my entire read on it. I just was upfront with what made me uneasy and asked you to clarify.

It is not that I am "getting dragged down because someone's posting in ELO sounds "off." It is much more like you keep reminding me why I was scum reading you earlier in the game. Like I had you near the top of my scum read list during my catchup on Day 1... and I had you as my top scum read Day 2... And even at the start of this day, you were my scum read. How dumb would I feel post game if I literally scum read you the entire game, and still lost to scum!catboi because he managed to side track me last min.

I think at this point I am going to have to build full cases against both of you tomorrow, because I have been pulled back to uncertainty

If this is scum!Catboi and we miselim Marci that'd be so embarassing I'm actually so scared of that, T3 will have every right to yell at us post-game

[Meuh]

Ah, marci...so this is the path you've chosen. I'm assuming you're scum who sees pushing me as your best hope, but I'll give what you say a look.

Why would scum be committing to a wagon this early? Marci looks town for that vote imo

Huh? If she's scum here, she knows that I am correctly reading her and am unlikely to change my mind, so her best bet is to push me. Committing to a vote early in ELO isn't a towntell.

Eh yeah ig for her specifically here it wouldn't, I just feel like fence-sitting and keeping doors open is something scum like to do, making voting kinda scary for them here, not that voting is pro-town.

[Meuh]

I'm officially caught up

[catboi]

Ah, marci...so this is the path you've chosen. I'm assuming you're scum who sees pushing me as your best hope, but I'll give what you say a look.

Why would scum be committing to a wagon this early? Marci looks town for that vote imo

Huh? If she's scum here, she knows that I am correctly reading her and am unlikely to change my mind, so her best bet is to push me. Committing to a vote early in ELO isn't a towntell.

Eh yeah ig for her specifically here it wouldn't, I just feel like fence-sitting and keeping doors open is something scum like to do, making voting kinda scary for them here, not that voting is pro-town.

In this phase of the game, that's often correct! But it's not always the case, plus I asked her to provide a read before this, not coming back with one looks bad. Again not a key point against her, just my perception of what was going on at that moment in time.

[catboi]

marci hasn't posted in 24 hours. I'm ok with voting her but wanted to give her a chance to respond first.

[catboi]

If this is scum!Catboi and we miselim Marci that'd be so embarassing I'm actually so scared of that, T3 will have every right to yell at us post-game

While I understand the concern about the dead's reads, T3 was operating under the false assumption that it was between me and lukewarm. So was everyone at the time. So it's not like he'd weighed in on whether marci was possibly scum, and his read on me was entirely based in process of elimination in that he didn't think it was lukewarm. He didn't have independent reasons for scumreading me.

[marcistar]

im sorry guys i got really busy with school and other stuff and didnt have enough time to fully check the thread

i forgot what page im on does anyone remember LOL

[Lukewarm]

im sorry guys i got really busy with school and other stuff and didnt have enough time to fully check the thread

i forgot what page im on does anyone remember LOL

I always just use my own iso to find my spot

You last post was 960.

[catboi]

Yeah that's what I do.


I think I wan to hammer test lukewarm right now to be sure we're not wasting time. Lukewarm, you still around?

[catboi]

NVM. maybe tomorrow.

[Lukewarm]

Can't sleep, so I'm starting my case building tonight

The Case for Catboi

Day 1

During Day 1, the very first time he mentions Sama in the thread was 239, where he gave him a town read. After that, I cannot find a single point where Catboi gives any reason he might suspect Sama, and interestingly, appears to have questioned everyone who gave Sama a scum read.

Spoiler:

Not_Mafia - {snip} the read on Sama was weak. I think there's a decent chance he could be scum here.

Meuh - {snip} The bit about Sama in 162 is interesting although I'm not sure what she means by "positioning".

Town

Pear
Norwee
Samawoodo

marcistar
in3kro

meuh
toriii
N_M

Scum

So in 239, he questioned everyone who had a scum read on Sama, put Sama in the town pull, and put both people who scum read sama in the scum pool

Post 290 questions Marci for being bothered by Sama
Post 320 questions Marci again over Sama
Post 436 questions In3 for voting Sama

And then his final post of Day 1 was

Actually it might be scummy tbqh, nothing in his reads was all that difficult

I think scum somewhere in N_M/marci/T3, outside chance of Sama maybe

His stance on Sama Day 1 is weird to me. Town lean him, never point out any reason you are suspicious of him, but then end with "outside chance of Sama maybe"
I noticed Catboi using the phrase "FoS your buddy, push on townies." when building his case against Marci, and his final post of Day 1 seems to fit that bill nicely.

On the flip side, Sama does not mention Catboi very much. But in general, he starts him as a null read, and steadily gives him "more townie point"

Spoiler:

@Samawoodo:

thoughts on Catboi?

Uhm actually is a null for me, idk, i dont feel like he is scummy for me atm. I mean, i have not so many reads for him right now so actually i couldnt figure so much about him

Acually @catboi , from my POE, u have started getting townie points in your last posts, not enought to consider you a townie atm, we are 9 players atm and is hard to "gamble" anything right now.

Actually, I’d like to “update” my list of impressions. Catboi more townie for example.

Day 2, BNM

I think it is important to break up Day 2 as "Before Not_Mafia" and "After Not_Mafia"

Spoiler:

Specifically Before/After these posts

marci vote VFP

Or better yet we flashwagon catboi

Because if the VFP+Catboi team were real, that being the choice N_M was pushing into the thread would put them in a hard position, and that is the strongest "time to bus" moment that I think you can see in a thread

The VFP entrance: VFP joins the thread, and gives a full read of the lobby in Post 501, and his scum reads are

Marci, Catboi,

and

Pear

. So regarless of his partner, he put them into his scum list. However, he follows up and says that his preference for the Day 2 vote is Pear>Marci>Catboi, and then proceeds to build a case against Pear.

Spoiler:

VFP, thoughts on marci?

{snip}
I can go into more detail if you want though but I'd rather lim here than Catboi from my bottom 3
{snip}

Followed up with

Meuh is always town here for me.
Marci lim works for me and I think we just win with Meuh, T3, and iN3krO as town here.
Marci scum makes NM town and iN3krO is plausibly the partner for 513
Marci town just means 2 scum in Pear, Catboi, and NM

Once again, "FoS your buddy, push on townies."

Interesting to note, just BEFORE he gave his read list in 501, he says in post 500 "Maybe town credit" for catboi, and then put him as his scum read he did not want to push out.

The Catboi reaction: So VFP just showed up into the thread, and build a case against Pear, and catboi appears to town read VFP for making that push. And then later makes a clear town read on VFP

Spoiler:

On a kneejerk level I heavily disagree with a pearofclubs vote

I don't think VFP posting that case is scummy though and I actually feel good about my hesitance to vote that slot.

The "I actually feel good about my hesitance to vote that slot." is what makes me think that he town reads VFP for it. But at the very least, he does not scum read him for a Pear push. Which is an interesting comparison to how he responded to my own Pear push, which he immediately labeled as scummy.

And he did eventually go as far as to voice a town read on him

A lot of the arguments being made now just don't do a whole lot for me. I do think VFP is probably townie.

tl;dr
VFP pushes pear // I don't buy it but I think VFP might be town regardless
Luke pushes pear // I don't buy it and I think Luke is scum for making the case he did

So to recap, we reach the end of the "Before Not Mafia" times with Catboi having a town read on VFP, and VFP has a scum read on catboi (and marci), but with preference of Pear>Marci>Catboi

Day 2, ANM

We reach post 607, where Not Mafia comes in with "we should vote VFP or flash wagon catboi" - and in response they both bus. Catboi votes VFP in 610 calling it a compromise vote and VFP votes Catboi in 615

For the rest of Day 2 Catboi and VFP both make cases against each other. But again, this is after NM said we are going to vote one or the other. Meaning, their only chance at a win would be to make sure the rest of the thread thinks that they could not be partners.

And despite the cross vote that they did in response to Not_Mafia, Catboi kept trying to shift the vote away from VFP and to me through out the rest of Day 2

Spoiler:

I don't buy the wagon on pear whatsoever. My preference would be lukewarm over you since in my view his reasoning is just blatantly scummy but beggars can't be choosers.

I think scum intentionally tried to push pear to see who would defend them so they could narrow down the doctor. In that light VFP and Lukewarm both look terrible. I think T3 is the town out of that group, but I'm not sure of it.

Sorry my reads have been so terrible.

UNVOTE:

VOTE: Lukewarm

Other random things

Everything above here is stuff I saw looking at the catboi/VFP dual iso. But there were a couple other things I wanted to point out as well.

I still stand behind my post 684 / 686 / 687. Catboi seems to make a concious effort the defend pear, but all of his defenses came off as disingenuois. And I would like to follow that up with something Pear said himself in response

Spoiler:

I agree, marci. I doubt that both scum would've been involved in pushing me D2.
If one did, they could figure out who the PR is, and it's less likely for them both to get caught.
And it's not unreasonable for a new swap in to suspect me, but if that was the game plan for D2, then it's more likely Catboi/VFP.
{sni}

It's VFP/Catboi, methinks

.

Pear called this scum team before VFP even flipped red

I also thought Meuh made a good point in post 453

Spoiler:

Catboi, why not unvote sooner yesterday? I had made it very clear I was going to vote on Norwee, leaving him at E-1 which would be very easy for someone to hammer (especially considering N_M exists). Also did you really just vote Norwee because 361 made you

that

uneasy

? Or was there something more to it? I don't understand why you played the way you did near the end of the day.

At the End of Day 1 / Start of Day 2 Catboi claimed he did not want the Norwee vote to pass, but left him at E-1 in a game where Not_Mafia exists.

Conclusion

I could see this as a partner pair. Neither made any effort to build a case on the other until after Not_Mafia stepped in the later part of Day 2, when they then cross voted.

Okay. I am going to go to bed now. Will look into Marci / VFP interactions tomorrow.

[Meuh]

Ugh why is this so hard I swear if Catboi has had me pocketed since mid-day 2 I’d die of embarrassment
Insightful post though Luke, I’ll need to reread some of day 2 to get a better grasp of whether your or Catboi’s interpretation was more accurate

[Meuh]

*mid-day 1

Also Lukewarm, I think 579 and 602 explain a fair bit why Catboi would think you’re scummier than VFP, doesn’t necessarily justify it but
“tl;dr
VFP pushes pear // I don't buy it but I think VFP might be town regardless
Luke pushes pear // I don't buy it and I think Luke is scum for making the case he did”
Doesn’t seem entirely accurate

I think the appeal of some grandiose reveal that the PR claim is actually scum and the satisfaction that elim would bring is unironically biasing me here
I think it’s Catboi probably, this whole Marci thing needs to go though so many hoops to be true that Catboi’s case doesn’t
Also I almost never dream but for some reason I just had a dream that Catboi, Marci and Luke were all town and somehow, for some reason, N_M was the last scum??? It was very odd, would’ve felt enlightened if it wasn’t for him literally flipping jailkeeper

[Meuh]

Yeah that's what I do.


I think I wan to hammer test lukewarm right now to be sure we're not wasting time. Lukewarm, you still around?

If we wanna fully commit to Catboi v marci I’m open to that, that’s true wasting time would suck