Open 812 Guardians of the Fortress - Game Over

[Lukewarm]

i mean if you're scum and unwnd/luke are T/T then you need to jump on the wall because if a townie jumps on the wall the game is over.

Your theory is a bad one because it puts both me and infinity in a bad position, when s_s is very unlikely to jump at anything, in fact, due to personality

the town motivation he should've said was because he townread luke/unwnd and he wanted to go for the auto-win but he didn't say that :<

I didn't say that because it's not true. I thought that there was 1 scum between unwnd/luke already.

When did you vocalize this, or did you?

I didn't, because there was no reason to talk after the lock in.

The crux is that, yes,

I believed that your group was all town.

I didn't believe that the other 3 were all scum given how casually they were talking about placements (but if they were all scum, we'd have won anyway)

Luke has been weird. Unwnd is a good player and I'm not 100%. Right now I'd guess catboy and luke,

Almost certain you said the exact opposite of the bolded during Day 1. Will go back to cross reference once I am caught up

[unwnd]

I've called out Dunn in games and he immediately retorts back, but I've felt uncomfortable with his maybe-townread of me given that other circumstances make me think he'd be less reluctant

[Dunnstral]

I find when Dunn is town the ends justify the means. When he's scum, he spends a lot of time in this mode of fake thinking. There's a more general vagueness and I feel like he's less battered because he doesn't want to risk the attention. This plays in part of him idling at times. Dunn isn't a hyperposter and keeps to himself, and I don't think he's the scum to make big moves. He waits for people to make mistakes and then capitalizes on them.

Okay so... does that explain 755? Did you know it wasn't really bravado?

It seemed pretty fake honestly yeah

Was I right or not?

[absinthe]

Anyways, last two scum are Lukewarm and catboi

I don't think Luke is scum. To me, the wall comes down to you or unwnd.

[unwnd]

I find when Dunn is town the ends justify the means. When he's scum, he spends a lot of time in this mode of fake thinking. There's a more general vagueness and I feel like he's less battered because he doesn't want to risk the attention. This plays in part of him idling at times. Dunn isn't a hyperposter and keeps to himself, and I don't think he's the scum to make big moves. He waits for people to make mistakes and then capitalizes on them.

Okay so... does that explain 755? Did you know it wasn't really bravado?

It seemed pretty fake honestly yeah

Was I right or not?

Are you saying that you're not partnered with Infinity because of that post?

[Something_Smart]

It seemed pretty fake honestly yeah

It's... it wasn't fake though. It was a legitimate question. And it wasn't bravado because he was specifically pointing out that he wasn't scumclaiming because scumclaiming would have been a reasonable play as scum.

[unwnd]

It seemed pretty fake honestly yeah

It's... it wasn't fake though. It was a legitimate question. And it wasn't bravado because he was specifically pointing out that he wasn't scumclaiming because scumclaiming would have been a reasonable play as scum.

...No it wouldn't? This is why I shouldn't just assume your abacus always have best intentions you've lost me

[Dunnstral]

Almost certain you said the exact opposite of the bolded during Day 1. Will go back to cross reference once I am caught up

I want you to go back to 769 and tell me what you think I was saying

[catboi]

Okay this was way less useful than I was hoping it'd be

My point is that your townread on Dunnstral is nonsense and he would say the same thing regardless of alignment, but that's not why I was pressing you... I wanted to understand your thought process to see if I thought it was genuine.

If I were scum and Briar/Ana were both town, I'd already be in the Keep

You would scumclaim and force the optimal move onto town?

Did you forget about the swap mechanic?

No but if we have two consensus town in the Keep then we don't care at all about the third slot. And if someone did scumclaim into it then there'd be no point in swapping one of them out since it's a guaranteed town win anyway.

I feel like this is coming from a scum!SS who has already considered the move that Dunnstral is proposing and decided it's not a good play to make.

In all honesty though this is silly and you should know it. I considered the merits of that play because Dunn brought it up. It's not like my response was instantaneous.

Dunn can you explain why you went Wall without consulting anyone?

This is basically nothing. If I wanted to stretch I could see the first quote as partnery but I feel like that's straining credulity to get there and in this case it's better to just admit I have no conclusion rather than forcing a read.

You think so?

To an extent. Scum will have either 6 or 15 options for who to swap; either way, which swap is optimal will depend almost entirely on how people are being read. The less they know about that, the more likely they are to make a suboptimal swap-- and the swap matters a huge deal.

How do you feel about what Ana did just now?

Probably moderately +scum because giving up control is pretty much always +town here, but not very much so. (Incidentally: this means Lukewarm's reaction is towny.)

Are people comfortable with Briar as the main vote, and Ana as the back up?

We definitely should not be saying which of the two we'd rather elect.

So I pushed him to explain, and he backed down with "people just are not understanding my point" and even though I came back with "my entire goal right now is understanding your point, please explain" he never did. If a town player really thought we were potentially setting the keep up for an auto-lose situation, then I have to believe they would have pressed more to get the thread to understand the point he was making.

I thought he explained his point pretty well?

I think Lukewarm's posts have been solidly town and he'd be my first pick for someone to send to the wall right now

Hm

This is basically nothing. On sheer

lack

of interaction it's suspect but Lukewarm was the only person of the three he really committed to any read on and most scum are reluctant to outright townread their parter.

After some careful thought I think using Gate is the best null/trashpile, mostly because if we're wrong on a base assumption we can clear a wrong read or confirm an unknown

Sending hard-to-read people to the Gate is probably a good idea, yeah.

Don't you think that giving scum a blueprint of our plans is a bit unwise?

Well the alternative is not having a plan, so no.

The only concrete plans we've been talking about are ones involving the Keep; these may have been mistakes to bring up, but it's too late to do anything about it at this point.

why was it so important to you to continue to argue with her despite claiming a townread?

well if she's an influential player and likely town, then it matters more that she not be wrong, no?

I'd like to take a shot on infinity-ss-unwnd as the scum team because I am a naive dreamer.

or, get this: you don't, and then the scum probably rule it out via swaps. and if they don't, then we've seriously narrowed the amount of possible swaps available to them.

Yes I'm horribly confbiased - but that's kind of why I want the ss-infy-unwnd team to snap me out of it if I'm wrong <3

I feel like this is coming from scum!Anastasia who knows that the solve is wrong and wants to set up an unwinnable Wall

Look I can make stupid theories too

Infinity, remind me why you have unwnd as town?

I felt like his play around ana has been quite towny, it feels like a genuine attempt to try to sort her through what seems like a layer of fog to him.

I just looked back through unwnd's ISO and I really don't see that much that seems to be sorting Ana at all, let along in a genuine way. Can you point to some posts that made you feel this way?

I actually think 663 is a mildly non-partnery interaction but the way he bristles at anastasia suggesting the team is pinging me hard - it's like when my team in FL vs Hectic got called out on like the first page and I got put on the defensive hard. It's not a lot but it does feel notable that this is one of the only moments that evoked a passionate response from him.

[catboi]

I'm gonna do that ISO thing rather than keep begging senpai (Briar) to notice (townread) me

You won't charm me, fiend.

Even if I said I am nya~t mafia? :<

[Dunnstral]

I find when Dunn is town the ends justify the means. When he's scum, he spends a lot of time in this mode of fake thinking. There's a more general vagueness and I feel like he's less battered because he doesn't want to risk the attention. This plays in part of him idling at times. Dunn isn't a hyperposter and keeps to himself, and I don't think he's the scum to make big moves. He waits for people to make mistakes and then capitalizes on them.

Okay so... does that explain 755? Did you know it wasn't really bravado?

It seemed pretty fake honestly yeah

Was I right or not?

Are you saying that you're not partnered with Infinity because of that post?

Not exactly

I'm saying I'm not scum because scum sat back and waited for absinthe to finally jump into the keep, whereas if I were scum either I or my team (but probably me) would have simply went into the keep before that rather than all get poe'd down at the end.

In my mind, if I'm scum, the keep is already lost if 3 town are in it, and we would have to toss 1 person in anyway. Having 1 person scum claim to join it and mess with the other 2 groups is worth it.

The current group of scum did not agree, and that became apparent when multiple people latched onto me by saying I was shading briar/ana instead of actually engaging with my points

[unwnd]

I find when Dunn is town the ends justify the means. When he's scum, he spends a lot of time in this mode of fake thinking. There's a more general vagueness and I feel like he's less battered because he doesn't want to risk the attention. This plays in part of him idling at times. Dunn isn't a hyperposter and keeps to himself, and I don't think he's the scum to make big moves. He waits for people to make mistakes and then capitalizes on them.

Okay so... does that explain 755? Did you know it wasn't really bravado?

It seemed pretty fake honestly yeah

Was I right or not?

Are you saying that you're not partnered with Infinity because of that post?

Not exactly

I'm saying I'm not scum because scum sat back and waited for absinthe to finally jump into the keep, whereas if I were scum either I or my team (but probably me) would have simply went into the keep before that rather than all get poe'd down at the end.

In my mind, if I'm scum, the keep is already lost if 3 town are in it, and we would have to toss 1 person in anyway. Having 1 person scum claim to join it and mess with the other 2 groups is worth it.

The current group of scum did not agree, and that became apparent when multiple people latched onto me by saying I was shading briar/ana instead of actually engaging with my points

Correct me if I'm wrong, but you voted Wall before S_S voted Gate right?

[catboi]

I'm ok with going to the Keep.

Putting 3 towny players in the Keep seems like a massive waste

I think I agree. We only need two in there, 1 as the main vote choice, and 1 as the back-up in case the main vote is swapped out.

Are people comfortable with Briar as the main vote, and Ana as the back up? if so, we could leave the third slot for the "left over" player.

So I guess the question is really, does anyone scum read Briar or Ana?

so my question to you is what is optimal then?

I kind of answered that here:

I think the bottom line is that we want the Gate to have all the scummiest players after the swap (I THINK? I may try to math this out honestly because it's a costly thing to get wrong), and we want the Keep to have exactly one towny player after the swap. It's not totally clear what the best way to achieve that is, or even if there is a good way.

I'm not vehemently opposed to Infinity's idea, but I feel like I would prefer this: 2 townreads + 1 nullread at the Keep, any remaining strong townreads at the Wall, then fill out the Wall with the scummiest players and put the rest at the Gate.

The reasoning being: you need exactly 2 known townies to guarantee victory at the Keep. The third is superfluous, and we might as well put a hard-to-read player there instead. Putting a known townie at the Gate meanwhile makes it trivial for the scum to give us no information with the IC reveal. (At least make them work, if they want to do that.) So, we put other townreads at the Wall. Then, we don't want to stuff the Gate with scummy people because that gives scum more control over who gets IC'd, so we put the other scummy people at the Wall (which we would be happy to turn into a 50/50 since it's the hardest minigame) and the rest at the Gate.

I think that this thought process is the one I most vibe with on a cursory read through.

Second quote would be fairly bold for a new scum player to say in response to a partner.

[unwnd]

Official Vote Count 1.05

---

Preparation

Gate

(1): catboi

Wall

(1): unwnd

Keep

(2): Briar, Anastasia

Unassigned

(5): Dunnstral, Infinity 324, absinthe, Lukewarm, Something_Smart

Deadline:

(expired on 2021-05-18 18:31:49).

Mod notes:

Only votes for the Gate, Wall, or Keep will be counted.

Official Vote Count 1.06

---

Preparation

Gate

(2): catboi, Something_Smart

Wall

(3): unwnd, Lukewarm, Dunnstral

<-- FULL

Keep

(3): Briar, Anastasia, absinthe

<-- FULL

Unassigned

(1): Infinity 324

Deadline:

(expired on 2021-05-18 18:31:49).

Mod notes:

Day ends when all but one player have voted.

With your theory in mind dunn Re: scum waited for absin to jump to keep that makes Infinity left out scum, one of catboi/S_S, and then Me/You/Luke having the last?

[absinthe]

Personally, I'd rather we solved the Gate first

Tell me about your S_S, catboi reads then.

[Dunnstral]

I find when Dunn is town the ends justify the means. When he's scum, he spends a lot of time in this mode of fake thinking. There's a more general vagueness and I feel like he's less battered because he doesn't want to risk the attention. This plays in part of him idling at times. Dunn isn't a hyperposter and keeps to himself, and I don't think he's the scum to make big moves. He waits for people to make mistakes and then capitalizes on them.

Okay so... does that explain 755? Did you know it wasn't really bravado?

It seemed pretty fake honestly yeah

Was I right or not?

Are you saying that you're not partnered with Infinity because of that post?

Not exactly

I'm saying I'm not scum because scum sat back and waited for absinthe to finally jump into the keep, whereas if I were scum either I or my team (but probably me) would have simply went into the keep before that rather than all get poe'd down at the end.

In my mind, if I'm scum, the keep is already lost if 3 town are in it, and we would have to toss 1 person in anyway. Having 1 person scum claim to join it and mess with the other 2 groups is worth it.

The current group of scum did not agree, and that became apparent when multiple people latched onto me by saying I was shading briar/ana instead of actually engaging with my points

Correct me if I'm wrong, but you voted Wall before S_S voted Gate right?

That's correct, but the situation you describe is reactive (trying to prevent losing) rather than proactive (trying to make it harder for town to win)

It's not the same thing, and I explained why I would be unlikely to react like that as scum (because S_S is unlikely to jump into the wall without talking about it, based on personality)

[Something_Smart]

...No it wouldn't? This is why I shouldn't just assume your abacus always have best intentions you've lost me

From his point of view, I mean.

[catboi]

Meh there's basically nothing interactionwise going from dunn > S_S

[Something_Smart]

Even if I said

I am

nya~t

mafia

? :<

Gottem

[Dunnstral]

Personally, I'd rather we solved the Gate first

Tell me about your S_S, catboi reads then.

s_s is towny because he made good points when he said we shouldn't talk anymore, and realizing it was correct for him to hammer the gate without talking.

catboi is close to null but leans scum because he was focused way more on talking about how I was shading ana/briar than what I was actually talking about. Notable is that the scum team completely gave up on winning the keep. Today, catboi talked about flipping the keep first as if it were the most natural thing when I don't believe that is the case, and I think that's calculated

[Lukewarm]

Anyways, last two scum are Lukewarm and catboi

I don't think Luke is scum. To me, the wall comes down to you or unwnd.

We could not find each other last game, even at ELo, but we found each other this game Day 1

[Dunnstral]

Official Vote Count 1.05

---

Preparation

Gate

(1): catboi

Wall

(1): unwnd

Keep

(2): Briar, Anastasia

Unassigned

(5): Dunnstral, Infinity 324, absinthe, Lukewarm, Something_Smart

Deadline:

(expired on 2021-05-18 18:31:49).

Mod notes:

Only votes for the Gate, Wall, or Keep will be counted.

Official Vote Count 1.06

---

Preparation

Gate

(2): catboi, Something_Smart

Wall

(3): unwnd, Lukewarm, Dunnstral

<-- FULL

Keep

(3): Briar, Anastasia, absinthe

<-- FULL

Unassigned

(1): Infinity 324

Deadline:

(expired on 2021-05-18 18:31:49).

Mod notes:

Day ends when all but one player have voted.

With your theory in mind dunn Re: scum waited for absin to jump to keep that makes Infinity left out scum, one of catboi/S_S, and then Me/You/Luke having the last?

Luke jumped to the wall right after absinthe jumped to the keep. Catboi was already at the gate.

[absinthe]

remember the scum on the Gate can't really bus the scum on the Wall if the Keep is already townsided.

I mean they can if they don't expect to be believed...

Right now I'm leaning unwnd scum at the Wall

I remember the bit about thinking he was trying to tie you two together. Is there more?

[unwnd]

I think I can see your worldview but I'm going to be honest

Thinking about mech in less conventional ways usually fucks with my head. I can work with reasoning being applied to mech but the reason I've retracted my read on S_S is that his content is almost all mech and I shouldn't just give it a pass because it sounds interesting

[Something_Smart]

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