Open 842: Diffusion of Power [Postgame]

[numberQ]

Sup, I haven't read anything yet, but I got a N0 guilty on implosion. This makes up for me incorrectly SRing him in Guardians of the Fortress, now I can correctly SR him.

[numberQ]

Alright I quickly skimmed everything, random thoughts from my read through:

Anyway. Ydrasse also kinda town i think.

Ydrasse had literally two posts when you posted this and one was her saying she's town.

---

I agree with Shirou that the hydra no-signing makes it harder to read, and even after reading morph's justification I'm not sure I totally agree with it. You're still two different people, not sure how it's useful to treat you as one entity when you're going to have different thought processes, etc. But I guess if it never becomes a big deal there's no reason to complain, so I'll respect it.

---

For having several player slots posting, the fact that we only have one solid read is kind of concerning. If this were a pool game being played casually at the bar, I'd ask to re-rack and break again because half the balls didn't even move yet on THIS break.

What's your one solid read? I think I missed it if you said it, and at this point int he thread I didn't get any solid vibes at all while skimming through, so this is surprising

---

No rvs. Only Seriousness.

y'all beat me to it this time!

I can't read hydras if at least one of the heads doesn't sign

it's page 2 and I'm already confused on what head is posting what



VOTE: morph the cat

I don't like this post, it doesn't suggest that you're actually trying to figure out which head is which, and if you're confused you could just ask instead of using it as a motivation for a vote

VOTE: Shirou

Weird vote. Shirou's vote seemed perfectly natural especially that early in the game. While yours feels like it has very flimsy justification, and funnily enough that justification WAS that Shirou had flimsy justification.

GL's 105 is weird too, feels confbias-y

Later posts from GL don't have this feeling though so maybe I just didn't like his opening.

---

I don't think I have any actual concerns with Shirou now that he's followed up on stuff and I don't really scumread anyone else actively posting so far

VOTE: numberQ
what's this button do

Spoiler:

[numberQ]

That's mainly what stood out to me while skimming, though my eyes glazed over a few times. I'm on somewhat of a time crunch so if there's something more particular to look at, I can do so later if requested. Early, unrefined reads are the Shirou is leantown, GL is funky but I don't know if he's scummy without brewing on it more, and I feel like I should have a more solid opinion on the hydras but I don't.

[numberQ]

Fast game, wee. I haven't read every post since my last one. Just gonna try to spit out some thoughts as they came to me while reading.

VOTE: Shirou

Very self-aware. Almost too self-aware, if I do say so myself.

This is an interesting thought (that I see has already been scrutinized later in the thread so I won't dwell too much on it). I think there's merit in scumreading self-awareness, scum generally ARE hyper aware of what they're doing, if it looks good, what the implications might be of saying something, etc.

Ceph what are your page 6 thoughts?

i'm liking shirou a moderate amount. they seem at ease and i don't mean because they're talking about how at ease they are/want to be.

i didn't care for fua's first post.

Interested in how claiming confusion over hydras is anything but NAI. Like, I've seen scum fake confusion over the mechanics to appear +town. But over hydra composition?

Hey GuiltyLion! Still love the avatar.

What do you expect from Ydrasse this game?

--PA

Why ask this?

Why did post 110 in particular need to be poked at?

Just genuinely wondering because I’m confused as to what the end goal of the question is.

Why do I need an end goal?

--PA

This answer is +town. The question she's answering is -town.

[numberQ]

Here is my breadcrum

I am a Night Two Doctor

Don't tell anyone if you can figure it out

I think Ydrasse just breadcrumbed that she's scum

[numberQ]

The interaction between Tejate and Ceph from 238 on is pinging me. 238 itself does strike me as a lot of nothing that

could

be scum indicative. Ceph calling him out on it though, for some reason I didn't like it even though I generally agreed with the sentiment. And overall I feel like Tejate is coming out of that back and forth looking towny, and Ceph null-scum.

[numberQ]

@mod

VC please?

[numberQ]

Interested in how claiming confusion over hydras is anything but NAI. Like, I've seen scum fake confusion over the mechanics to appear +town. But over hydra composition?

expressing confusion is easier than engaging with the game & they offered excuses for not finding scum before even trying

I can sort of see that, mostly the first point. Idk if I've ever seen scum preemptively offer an excuse for not being able to find scum at all, rather than just fake scumhunt and make the excuses later. That if that is what's happening here, 280 certainly fits that narrative with the AtE.

[numberQ]

Every post is special. Maybe even this one.

VOTE: Ceph

I don't know what to make of this. There are reasons to vote Ceph but in context this doesn't look like anything but OMGUS.

pedit: Which post is he ignoring the context of? Your intro about hydra confusion?

[numberQ]

There are reasons to vote Ceph

Are there? Because you've failed to provide any.

I mean you literally quoted me a few posts back giving a reason to vote you. This is honestly such a strange reaction

VOTE: Cephrir

[numberQ]

There are reasons to vote Ceph

Are there? Because you've failed to provide any.

I mean you literally quoted me a few posts back giving a reason to vote you. This is honestly such a strange reaction

VOTE: Cephrir

I did quote 273 wherein you express suspicion of me. However, I don't think anything in that post constitues a reason. If anything you posted the opposite of a reason to suspect me.

I called you null-scum. How is that the opposite of a reason?

I just got back after an extended F5 break so I still need to sort out my thoughts, but man this timeline is looking... very weird so far. I'm still not sure I fully understand fua's logic here. How exactly was Ceph "overexplainy"? And why are you tying our alignments together? The most major interaction we've had so far is me asking him if he has anything that stood out for discussion since I felt like post 172/173 were pretty weak threads but I couldn't find much else.

When you say "timeline" do you just mean the sequence of events in the thread? I'm not sure what's weird about it.

[numberQ]

Yeah that unvote from Tejate was very... dramatic, is the right word I think?

[numberQ]

I called you null-scum. How is that the opposite of a reason?

it's a read

a reason would be why you have that read

your join date is in 2011 come on

The reason I have that read is because I looked at your posts and they made me think, "that guy is null-scum". Idk what you're implying by bringing up my join date, but if anything it means I'm comfortable trusting my gut and the general vibes I get even if I don't always put it into exact words. And judging from this interaction that was driven by me acting on my gut, I also feel pretty comfortable saying it's working.

[numberQ]

I want to TR Tejate because he does seem earnest. Plus I don't see S/S in Tejate + Ceph, and currently I like Ceph for scum. But I feel like Tejate isn't, I don't know, rocking the boat at all? I guess you don't have to do that to be town, but when I read most of his posts it feels kind of narrow and flat. I'm not seeing anything that makes me think "oh yeah, he's trying to pursue lines of thought and look for new angles to solve from".

Should probably re-ISO him but I'm out of time tonight, likely won't be on again until tomorrow.

[numberQ]

I'm curious how Shirou and fua view each other after that exchange. Maybe I'm mistaken but none of that looked like attempts to solve the game state or sort each other's alignment. Shirou's questioning was very directed so I have to imagine he got something out of it, and he even said he was satisfied with the answers he got.

So my question more explicitly is, do either of you lean more town or scum on the other after that conversation?

[numberQ]

The interaction between Tejate and Ceph from 238 on is pinging me. 238 itself does strike me as a lot of nothing that

could

be scum indicative. Ceph calling him out on it though, for some reason I didn't like it even though I generally agreed with the sentiment. And overall I feel like Tejate is coming out of that back and forth looking towny, and Ceph null-scum.

Do not like this post. At all. I understand trying to read intent through wording, but what about Ceph's wording here was weird? Even I admit that I was shooting myself in the foot last night by letting LAMIST slip through more than actual town play. It was hardly a push, let alone an argument, so why is this perceived as AI?

Do you think the interactions between me and Ceph that resulted from this accusation are AI at all?

I want to TR Tejate because he does seem earnest. Plus I don't see S/S in Tejate + Ceph, and currently I like Ceph for scum. But I feel like Tejate isn't, I don't know, rocking the boat at all? I guess you don't have to do that to be town, but when I read most of his posts it feels kind of narrow and flat. I'm not seeing anything that makes me think "oh yeah, he's trying to pursue lines of thought and look for new angles to solve from".

Should probably re-ISO him but I'm out of time tonight, likely won't be on again until tomorrow.

Again, I'm not sure what gives nQ the impression that it's not S/S? Like, yes, statistically speaking if you take any two random players the chances of it being two scum are low, but what exactly is giving them this impression that a scum!Ceph means that town!Me is likely? Once again, I would like to emphasize that so far myself and Ceph have barely interacted, and our interaction so far was mainly because we both happened to be on the thread at the same time. As much as I'd love to take this townread and go, this argument genuinely pings me as strange. I would

really

like some elaboration.

239 and 243 are not the kind of push I expect scum to give their buddy. It's such a ridiculous argument imo, to call someone out for putting their thoughts in the thread. And then your 244, particularly you apologizing if you're coming off as scum trying to seem active - I do not think that's scum talking to scum. Ceph never actually used those words, you conjured up that "scum trying to seem active" phrase yourself. I'm trying to picture scum read their buddy call them out the way Ceph did, and then thinking to themselves that putting those words in their buddy's mouth is a good idea. I just can't see it.

---

Anyway I started writing this post like, 3 hours ago and then got pulled away from the computer before I could finish. Haven't read anything since then, gonna try to catch back up now.

[numberQ]

Shirou is asking Tejate a lot of leading questions and it all just strikes me as very weird. It ultimately culminates here where he outlines what ostensibly SHOULD have been the pro scum strat. But I don't buy it, I certainly didn't catch onto what Shirou was expecting to hear, and I'd be interested in knowing if anyone else did. Is there anymore clarity in anyone's Tejate read after this - and that question is for Shirou as well? Even if Tejate HAD given that extremely specific answer, I have my doubts that it would have actually helped sort him.

---

I can see implosion and GL as a scum pairing.

is this because of any specific interactions between us, or just because we are both voting you

It’s because you have no interactions with each other and yet pray to the reach gods to try to fabricate a reason to scumread me within less than a page of one another. But that’s just why I think you could be paired even outside of you both individually being scum.

This is also kind of weird. I feel like scum if anything will try to have

different

reads from each other. I feel like if I were scum and saw a scumbuddy fabricate a scumread on player X the last thing I would do is then go "hm, i should also fabricate a scumread on player X".

And there's plenty of players that I at least have not interacted with at all.

This point is valid particularly with daytalk in the setup. Scum will be coordinated and it seems unlikely they'd plan this kind of half-baked wagon attempt, especially so early in the game.

---

I think fua's play has solo player written all over it.

What do you mean by "solo player"?

---

There's a whole fua vs GL exchange in there that I don't have my thoughts sorted on yet. At multiple times throughout reading it I thought both players were either alignment. I kind of want to just throw it in the TvT bin and be done with it but that feels like a mistake.

[numberQ]

Decided to ISO Ceph and maybe it's confbias but I'm seeing scum motivation behind a lot of his posting. Here's a wall about it.

Ceph what are your page 6 thoughts?

i'm liking shirou a moderate amount. they seem at ease and i don't mean because they're talking about how at ease they are/want to be.

i didn't care for fua's first post.

This is where his ISO starts to look funky. I already commented that I wasn't sure how fua's first post was AI, since it was entirely about being confused by the hydrae. Both Ceph himself and morph have indicated this is possibly a valid reason to not care for an entrance, but I still think it's nothing. As town, I've been confused/frustrated by hydrae before.

But even if you don't agree with any of that, just look at the other major point of this post. Ceph claims to like Shirou, despite him ALSO complaining about hydra stuff in his opening post.

To be absolutely fair, Ceph gave these opinions in response to a direct question about his thoughts on page 6, and Shirou's opening post didn't happen on page 6. So in a vacuum, this point is bullshit. But in context with the rest of Ceph's ISO I can't help but see it as suspicious.

After this, Ceph proceeds to pocket Shirou with 207 and 223.

239 begins his interaction with Tejate that I've talked about extensively already, and which initially turned me on to him as a SR.

There are reasons to vote Ceph

Are there? Because you've failed to provide any.

And this (plus the rest of the discussion he had with me after this) helped me solidify the SR. He oscillated between disproportionately hostile and dismissive.

Hostile: 288, 312
Dismissive: 277, 294, 296 (actually a response to fua)
Hostile AND dismissive: 324

Note how nowhere in there is a single actual refutation of my read, just consistently saying that I have no reason to come after him. My reasoning at the time was of course mostly gut based. But then why have that kind of reaction to it? It's not scummy to have an emotional reaction and it's not scummy to argue against a scumread on you. What's scummy is the dissonance between them in Ceph's posting here.

it's weird, i went to bed feeling like no one was scum and have woken up thinking everyone is scum.

I've been in games where reads are impossible to feel good about all the way up to like, D3 or 4. This post feels like he's misconstruing this game as one of them. At a stage where people are starting to put out reads and leans, even tentative ones, here Ceph is giving a reason why he might not be able to. And then of course, he does not for the rest of his ISO. This is also +scum - he's been in several interactions and debates, but his only takeaway is that "everyone is scum"?

pedit: "He's maybe a little focused on some specific people" - great timing for me to come out with a wall about a single person

[numberQ]

After this, Ceph proceeds to pocket Shirou with 207 and 223.

ummm soooo

i voted you because i felt like you were working towards a potential shirou vote with your posts like. 509 you're saying you don't buy what shirou's saying, you're doubtful, it's felt like a theme in your iso where you're unsure about shirou. so why are you confident then that this is ceph pocketing?

Yeah in a vacuum I'm unsure about Shirou. But that's all it is, uncertainty. I'm willing to TR him by association with my SR on Ceph.

[numberQ]

Shirou is asking Tejate a lot of leading questions and it all just strikes me as very weird. It ultimately culminates here where he outlines what ostensibly SHOULD have been the pro scum strat. But I don't buy it, I certainly didn't catch onto what Shirou was expecting to hear, and I'd be interested in knowing if anyone else did. Is there anymore clarity in anyone's Tejate read after this - and that question is for Shirou as well? Even if Tejate HAD given that extremely specific answer, I have my doubts that it would have actually helped sort him.

How come you

didn't

get my point in that post to be honest...?

If Tejate had said "I wouldn't have tried to stop people tying up our slots together", I would have throw him a solid town lean as long as Cephrir didn't flip scum at some point. Since he failed to show me he would be aware of the mistake of trying to stop the fake associative as scum, I didn't change my mind on his slot that much after the exchange, still kinda neutral on him.

I explained all of the above on that post itself, I understand how you can disagree with my logic and think it's a stretch or that it doesn't help on anything to you/other players, but I surely can't understand how after reading that post you didn't understand

how

it would have helped

my

read on him at least as you seem to imply?

This feels like you decided you should shade me here so you proceeded to doing it even if the reasoning feels like a bit of a stretch.

I asked some questions, had a reason to ask said questions, and explained my motivation on trying to obtain that reason. How come you think it was

that

weird? I think this isn't the first time you shade one of my posts with some generic words without going too much in-depth about it.

But like,

why

would that answer have made you townlean him? If you're attributing his lack of awareness of that strategy to him being newb, why can't he be newb scum? Is there something I'm missing from your explanation? It's weird because in my eyes it just amounts to nothing, but there was a lot of effort behind it anyway.

[numberQ]

Wait, I think I did get something backwards, after rereading your 551 just now. Maybe I just don't follow the logic at all.

[numberQ]

[snip]

not enough data to make an educated guess, but kinda scum-leaning tea, and kinda townleaning imaginality

How do you have anything but null on imaginality?

[numberQ]

like also

"town parade on numberq"

no read on numberq given

do you think that town's all going to pile on numberq and be wrong then or is numberq scum who town's going to get right

if it's the first why haven't you said anything/tried to soothe things a bit and if it's the second do you think i feel a need to bus this early on

why even anticipate a pile-on at all

tbh though you probably should pile on me, I think I do my best work under pressure.

[numberQ]

because from my pov

it feels like number is doing the like frog in boiling water heating it up slowly to end up on a shirou vote because of all the commentary/focus, it's not the only thing but it feels apparent 2 me

and then it's just like swerving around to jump onto someone else and crashing through the setup

If you saw my suspicion towards Ceph as swerving then idk what to tell you.

[numberQ]

@Ydrasse, I really don't think I put as much focus on Shirou as you're saying I did, until very recently when we argued over his questioning of Tejate. My "backing off" was more a function of my Ceph SR implying a Shirou TR, not as much based on my misunderstanding of his logic. And misunderstanding or no I still don't

really

see how that line of questioning could have lead him to a townlean, regardless of alignment. You're acting like I can only question my scumreads.

[numberQ]

@Ydrasse, I really don't think I put as much focus on Shirou as you're saying I did, until very recently when we argued over his questioning of Tejate. My "backing off" was more a function of my Ceph SR implying a Shirou TR, not as much based on my misunderstanding of his logic. And misunderstanding or no I still don't

really

see how that line of questioning could have lead him to a townlean, regardless of alignment. You're acting like I can only question my scumreads.

when i read through your iso it felt like there was a lot of questioning or like, "why do this"/"what gain from it" but it wasn't quite like a fos but sort of just... a presence. so seeing it sort of be sidelined to fit into a new narrative is ??? to me, even if it's not 'new' but like... a more forward one. if that makes sense. like. "this is the case i am sending out to people on ceph."

and i am not doing that lol

~

tbh i think some of my issue with how you treated the shirou stuff was i guess... hmm

why do you think shirou approaches solving/reading someone like that as scum if he's capable of building a narrative of like, reading through psychology/asking tejate "imagine you're this alignment, etc"? because if people see it and believe it to be genuine, i guess like...

what do you think the gain is through faking that versus a more 'traditional' questioning that could resonate more easily with people?

beyond just like "well people are townreading him now so clearly it's working"

I feel like I'm being gaslighted lmao. Did I ever actually call Shirou scum? I'm pretty sure I didn't and I just poked through my own ISO to confirm, in case I had a thought like that which I may have forgot. Doesn't look like that's the case. Even in 509 where I started to question what he was doing, it's literally just that - questioning what he's doing, because I didn't understand it and I wasn't sure what to think of it. Earlier I even gave him a tentative townlean. So unless you can point out where I ever said I SRed Shirou and it was anything other than confusion, you're just putting words in my mouth.

[numberQ]

innos when relevant

?

I think that cops should always claim results here, even if it's only an inno?

Everyone is 1-shot so we aren't losing anything other than "hiding them from scum kills", but like, I don't want to write a wallpost here but basically it's not really that much of an issue even if they kill the inno given it would likely be someone that is a former suspect?

Forcing an inno to get nightkilled sounds way better to me than risking someone been cleared before but no one knowing it because the cop died at a night later before saying it.

I guess we can "crumb results" but...I don't know. I think it's obvious by now but I'm not a fan of crumbing, to the point I don't bother looking for crumbs even when I'm scum.

I don't think inno results should be outed as soon as day starts, but they shouldn't be held super close to the chest. At least wait until/if that person starts getting some heat, but I don't think it needs to be held until they get to E-1 or something.

pedit: I think I'm saying the same thing implo just did

ppedit: in 634

[numberQ]

eh

if I was scum I would love that opinion of yours

being able to claim later on "oh btw I'm cop and my inno is a dead guy from ages ago" is too much of a convenient fakeclaim here

There's barely any difference between claiming innos as soon as day start, and "waiting" to claim innos for town (when you consider the risk of the cop dying without ever saying someone was cleared, in fact it sounds like a swingy strategy)

However there certainly is a lot of benefit for scum to be able to hold on claiming until later. You want to make scum claim as soon as possible in this setup in my opinion. If you leave it all for when we massclaim, scum can fakeclaim whatever is the most convenient to counter our results by then.

This is probably a take we should give our opinions on. Everyone should comment on whether they are in favor or against cops claiming the innos as soon as day start.

I'm in

favor

. I want to lock scum to their claims as soon as humanly possible.

I wasn't really saying we should let cops skate by the entire day without claiming. I do think it should happen the day after the result is received. I just contested that it had to happen RIGHT at daystart.

However, after reading your next post, I do see what you're saying about making it risky for scum cop claims. Let me think about this.

Pros for letting cops hold onto their info, as long as they out it that day at some point:
- conversation can progress naturally without immediately being dominated by a cop result
- gives a chance for further scum interactions with the innocent party before everyone knows they're innocent

Pros for forcing cops to out inno results at daystart:
- forces scum to make a choice and be accountable to it

Though I technically have

more

pros in the "let them wait" list, maybe the pro in the "force them to claim" list outweighs both of the other ones. Also maybe I'm not thinking of every pro.

Oh no, I'm actually a cop. I just want to take away claim space.

Take away claim space, what?

[numberQ]

eh yeah on reflection I don't think the two points in the "let them wait" list are THAT important. I'm for the plan I think.

[numberQ]

Anyway, I would suggest healing someone that's more widely TRed instead of me. Forcing scum to kill me and closing off space for them to claim in the future by confirming myself (LHF) as town is a good move, especially since it means one townie is confirmed right out the gate.

What's LHF?

eh yeah on reflection I don't think the two points in the "let them wait" list are THAT important. I'm for the plan I think.

Like yeah, they're not. Neither is the one point on the other side. Scum will have to make a choice and be accountable for it at some point. That is... how the game of mafia works.

So are you saying you don't think either plan gives us better chances?

[numberQ]

I guess you answered that in the post before mine, I didn't read the pedit

[numberQ]

Low hanging fruit. I'm an easy target for a mislim.

I don't think your cop claim puts as big a target on your back as you're saying, in a setup with at least 4 cops in it.

[numberQ]

Low hanging fruit. I'm an easy target for a mislim.

I don't think your cop claim puts as big a target on your back as you're saying, in a setup with at least 4 cops in it.

Obviously I'm not LHF anymore since I claimed cop.

I misread what you were saying then. Though what I said before about there being 4 cops also applies here. EVERYONE will claim cop or doc, and on D1 no one has a result to back it up. Why would you claiming cop now be any different from you claiming cop at E-1? I can't imagine any scenario where we don't ignore you either way.

[numberQ]

Have you never put your ducks in a row and singled out potential miselims to push as scum? By taking one of those away and putting that fat towncred on myself I remove some of their power and give town time to talk about the events preceding my alignment and role reveal.

What towncred are you getting though? That's my point.

[numberQ]

Have you never put your ducks in a row and singled out potential miselims to push as scum? By taking one of those away and putting that fat towncred on myself I remove some of their power and give town time to talk about the events preceding my alignment and role reveal.

What towncred are you getting though? That's my point.

well, there is the towncred they're getting from being obviously town on these last 2 pages, does that help

Thanks for the input. Not what (or who) I was asking though.

[numberQ]

Have you never put your ducks in a row and singled out potential miselims to push as scum? By taking one of those away and putting that fat towncred on myself I remove some of their power and give town time to talk about the events preceding my alignment and role reveal.

What towncred are you getting though? That's my point.

Being town and explaining my thought process behind the claim.

I think it's a NAI thought process but fair enough I guess.

[numberQ]

Kind of feels like fua is baiting a cop to target them with all this blatant LAMIST-ing. Which I guess is +town because scum wouldn't want to be targeted?

[numberQ]

also @numberq i was correlating 270 + 509 as scumreading because you were like vibing with the vote on shirou and then the language u used was doubtful (not buying) vs just like questioning

no i will not link these posts on mobile

Yeah I can see what you're seeing in those posts. All I can say is I didn't SR him at those times, and was more poking at something I didn't understand to see if I

should

SR him.

At the moment I think he's in the top half of my reads list. I still want to go back and try and grok his interaction with Tejate, but regardless of that I think the way he reacted to my questioning of him over it was more town than not. It was consistent and had a clear thought process behind it, at least.

Ah, also I guess unless they're scum together (which wouldn't be that weird considering their openings), I should probably trust Morph read on Amazon for now. Even if they were wrong on it at the moment, as long as they are alive they will likely correctly sort out Amazon correctly. If they die...well, we can cross that bridge when we get there.

For what it's worth, it's a very high confidence read for us. I'll be very surprised if they leave our "Utterly Town, never elim this" pile. We'd love to have 4 more reads of that strength, or even four more in that plus the second tier combined before the day ends.

fua's headed in that direction.

\

Can you elaborate on your high conf TR here? Skimmed your ISO but I don't think I saw anything to this effect, and based on your familiarity with each other I suspect it's mostly meta.

[numberQ]

I don't think morph's 753 tracks with the meta read claim. If open games aren't either of your cups of tea, then idk how you're getting such a strong meta read in this open game as to put them in the "forever town" category. I play differently enough in the different queues (or at least I think I do) that I'd consider it difficult for someone to meta me THAT strongly across them.

idk though, feels like that thought is meshing with Ceph because of 766 and that gives me pause. Maybe I'm paranoid

[numberQ]

Meta is always very difficult for me to reconcile because when I experience tells based on it myself, I find it hard to put it into words. And when I see other people using it, it just does nothing for me because I don't have that same meta experience with the player in question.

[numberQ]

I don't think morph's 753 tracks with the meta read claim. If open games aren't either of your cups of tea, then idk how you're getting such a strong meta read in this open game as to put them in the "forever town" category. I play differently enough in the different queues (or at least I think I do) that I'd consider it difficult for someone to meta me THAT strongly across them.

idk though, feels like that thought is meshing with Ceph because of 766 and that gives me pause. Maybe I'm paranoid

The game type makes little difference in the kind of meta I analyze and I feel that's the case for Cabd, too. And I don't think either Tammy or Peng are much more into open games than we are. We're reading them a meta lens on the basis of their interactions with us and with other players.

Why is setup type a big factor to you in meta? Big enough that you wouldn't consider deep experience with a player because of setup type?

It was really the assuredness of the read that pinged me. It's not that I wouldn't consider it at all, just find it odd that you'd lock it down so hard when there are plenty of dependent variables that could be affecting meta. Or maybe I mean independent variables, I'm not a scientist lol

I feel that knowing exactly what roles and mechanics are in the setup drastically alters my way of thinking compared to not knowing, such as in a theme or something. It's possible that's not the case for everyone though, I guess.

[numberQ]

My take is that we shouldn't lim any of the inactive slots today. This isn't a game suffering for activity, so unless we think all 3 scum are lurking then I don't see an upside to basing wagons on activity.

[numberQ]

This thread is moving faster than I can react while looking back and forth between this and work. What's going on with the sudden GL wagon? I think I missed somethingn trying to keep up.

[numberQ]

My take is that we shouldn't lim any of the inactive slots today. This isn't a game suffering for activity, so unless we think all 3 scum are lurking then I don't see an upside to basing wagons on activity.

Counterpoint: 2020 scum teams still exist two years later.

I don't think I know what that means. Are you talking about games from 2020? wild if true

[numberQ]

My take is that we shouldn't lim any of the active slots today. This isn't a game suffering for inactivity, so unless we think all 3 scum are active then I don't see an upside to basing wagons on inactivity.

what

Are you trying to make a point? Because I can explain why having more activity to read from is better than having less activity to read from if you need me to.

A "2020 scumteam" is a mafia faction that rolls over and dies due to analytical paralysis and inability to keep up.

It's been seen quite a bit on site over the past few years.

I feel like that happened in the Trust Fall game I modded a little bit ago. What makes that the better route to take when deciding wagons on D1 though?

[numberQ]

Anyway I have to get some actual work done today so probably done looking at the thread for a bit

[numberQ]

nQ my point is half that I think it’s silly to categorically not lim less active slots and half to be snarky.

I don't know why this game in particular I keep getting misunderstood or misrepresented or whatever, but I did not say we should categorically not lim less active slots. I said I would rather lim a more active slot because it's day 1. What is limming imag, nsg, or redtea going to tell us about the rest of the gamestate? This early on, I'm more interested in voting a scummy slot who has actually interacted with other slots and might give us some associations day 2. And let's say we do wagon inactive scum. Then the rest of the team has carte blanche to bus their buddy and get sweet towncred. Whereas with an active slot, bussing is a lot harder and there can be clearer lines drawn after the flip irrespective of alignment.

I'm just saying there is more than likely scum amongst the semi-to-very active players, so even if there's also scum in the inactive players, why should we focus there on day 1?

Ah, low hanging fruit makes sense. Well, it is an early day 1 list. I can assure you people will be moving as the game progresses.

As for the matter of nQ, I feel like my thoughts remain largely unchanged. Even some recent posts ping me as... egh.

My take is that we shouldn't lim any of the inactive slots today. This isn't a game suffering for activity, so unless we think all 3 scum are lurking then I don't see an upside to basing wagons on activity.

This one makes little sense to me. We shouldn't base wagons on activity, therefor we shouldn't eliminate the inactive slots? Isn't that

basing wagons off of activity?

I think it's pretty obvious what I meant here. I don't know if you're misrepping on purpose or I'm just chronically not clear this game. Benefit of the doubt that it's the latter: If you look at the rest of the context of that discussion, you'll see I'm advocating that we not use inactivity as a reason to wagon someone this early in the game. Plus the above response to implosion.

[numberQ]

It's less a townbin and more of a nullbin, but sure, I agree for the most part. We should certainly be trying to get info out of them. Maybe I was wrong to use the word wagon, because I do think wagons are pretty much always a good thing for a healthy town. But people were saying these slots should be today's lim, which is what I disagree with.

[numberQ]

I will be on V/LA for a few days, have some family stuff that's making it impossible to think about Mafia right now.

[numberQ]

I'm back. Feeling better about mafia than I was a few days ago. I'll be playing catch up while working on some stuff around the house for the next few hours. I'll try to sequentially read all 20-30 pages I missed, but my ability to retain information will probably die a few pages in. So I might switch to an ISO centric catch up.

If there's anything anyone feels I should pay particular attention to, let me know.

[numberQ]

Alright, housework took longer than expected but I did start to catch up. Made it to the end of page 42 before my eyes started to glaze over. Brief summary of my notes so far:

---

GL looks town on page 35/36 where he SRs me, though I tend to TR people who build cases against me. But I'm seeing a town perspective from his analysis.

---

Ceph has not been pinging my radar nearly as much, in either direction. His posting feels less directed than it did back when I was pressing him. I have very few notes about him up to page 42, except for his post 897 where he is very waffley on GL. And he says GL's page 35/36 posting "treads into eyeglaze territory" and somehow that's a scumtell?

Also I do not think it's scummy to park my vote without pushing for the slot to be limmed. I think it was GL who said that? I didn't actually note it down, just remembering it now as I type this summary. My vote doesn't always mean I'm going to actively push them, especially if activity surrounding the voted slot dies down and my attention is drawn elsewhere.

---

implosion pinged me enough that I made a TODO to ISO him. Particularly, posts 906 and 907 do not strike me as town motivated. And then the vote in 908 does not vibe with the other two at all.

---

redtea is extremely blase and has posted almost nothing of worth. Does scum do that so blatantly? <- literally the exact line in my notes, and literally the entirety of my redtea thoughts up to page 42

---

The only posts from imaginality I saw that had anything close to scumhunting in it was 938 and maybe 928, both of which are very light touches. That pinged me enough to put a TODO to ISO him as well. I also noted down that AL's 949 puts into words some of my pingy thoughts on imag.

---

Shirou did It™ again, and I'm starting to think It™ is a playstyle thing that just rubs me the wrong way. First It™ was having a magical method to extract a read out of Tejate based on a very specific and obscure series of questions. Then It™ was post 978, where he was some magical way to observe a read from imaginality posting on his own like a goddamn nature documentarian observing giraffes in their natural habitat or something.

But outside of It™, his engagement with others has been in depth and probing, with what I think is a clear town perspective. It's just those It™ instances that I cannot grok at all. So I'm inclined to say I just don't get It™ and should use his non-It™ posting to read him.

---

Anyway this is obviously incomplete. Next I'm going to ISO implo, imag, and redtea and see if I can use those to follow threads throughout the remaining 20 pages I haven't read, hopefully can do that tonight. But a post-by-post catchup of ~500 posts will probably fry my brain so I don't think THAT will be happening tonight.

[numberQ]

I'm interested to see what Ceph will decide here

@numberQ, you seem kinda whatever/neutral on redtea while kinda suspicious of some imaginality's posts. Are you willing to vote him in a redtea vs imaginality dilemma?

I don't know, I still need to do those ISOs I hoped to do last night. Though from skimming through redtea's today, they do seem to start actually playing after the point I stopped reading. Have not looked at imaginality at all. Expect more thoughts on redtea v imag in the next few hours probably.

I'll vote redtea if it does come down to redtea or me, of course, but currently I would rather see implosion or numberQ limmed and I think there's time for that to happen.

numberQ's iso has a lot of caveats, to-dos and minor questions. He backed off his early suspicion of Cephrir. I'm not seeing anything strikingly towny in his posts.

He can prove himself town by voting implosion with me though - how about it, numberQ?

I don't have a feel for the current gamestate except that there's something between you and redtea. How does implosion factor into that? Why do I need to prove myself town to you, and how does an implo vote do that?

[numberQ]

Starting with redtea because they have the least amount of posts of the three I wanted to pay more attention to. Beware, I quote a couple of long posts unabridged in here.

Spoiler: redtea posts that interested me

you people sl'd fua for a little airheadedness in their opening posts?
might as well tie *me* to the stake right now then

really though what I see from their iso is that they're going for more of a conversationalist playstyle rather than an essayist one.

Already seeing something at least a little substantial, though it’s not much. I'm only pointing it out because I guess I had this perception that they had done literally nothing at all besides meme in the pages I’ve read, but this is

something

.

Though again, it isn’t much at all, mainly just disagreeing with the fua SL others had at the time. Plus a weird and unexplained comment on fua's playstyle.

you people sl'd fua for a little airheadedness in their opening posts?
might as well tie *me* to the stake right now then

really though what I see from their iso is that they're going for more of a conversationalist playstyle rather than an essayist one.

I resent being called an airhead but I can respect where you're coming from.

What exactly is a conversationalist playstyle? I play how I want.

uuhh
idk, the vibe

speaking of vibes, shirou vs fua was Not a vibe

I thiiiiink this has some game content too? It’s honestly hard to tell. They’re responding to a legit question from fua with a complete non-answer. Then they comment on Shirou vs fua from the early game by… I have no clue. All they said was “not a vibe”. Like I’m all for justifying reads with just having vibes or a gut feel, but this is even less than that.

the ideal scenario is to lim a lurky slot whose content has been scummy when they HAVE been here, like redtea

oof ouch
agree with the premise tho

Here they agree with GL over mech discussion, so I guess this is technically contentful. They do discuss with GL then a little, throughout 880-887. But it was incredibly light and resulted in basically nothing.

I'll say that I didn't expect my one (1) game with fua to be helpful but page 16 is telling me everyone would benefit from skimming one of their town games if one is studying-inclined

Some meta analysis on fua, though it’s really just a page number and a vague “skim one of fua’s town games”. They do elaborate somewhat in 1215. I’m terminally uninterested in researching meta so I’m not gonna read the linked games, but they’re there.

do scum still jump in for their mates these days tho?

This seems to be a rhetorical question supporting fua in the fua vs Tejate debate, though it’s so surface level and light that I don’t think it really contributes anything at all. Either that or it was an actual question, in which case it’s even more surface level and I don’t think redtea follows up at all.

Alright whatever I didn't read everything but idt it matters. If it's relevant I'll read it in iso later.
Sorry to interrupt whatever convo seems to be happening. I decided to post this before reading updates.

I'm not going to case each read of mine, which I know isn't really fair since I haven't been around much to do so in real time, but TOO BAD. You can ask specific questions if you want. I have a few thoughts that are getting in the way of my sorting people. It's almost all in response to numberQ but tbh they're mostly open-ended responses, which works great considering the v/la

Here:
[used to be a spoiler]
numberQ #270
#178 +town and #166 -town?
I get it, but to me this looks like town checking if Amazonian is treading water or if there's an actual thought process behind the og question, without thinking through how Amazonian giving away her intentions (if any) ruins the point.
(I'd know because I've been there)

numberQ #273
does Cephrir tend to be reactionary? The smarter play here imo would've been to see if Tejate, down the line, actually does anything irt such little remarks or if they only ever seem to contribute to a smokescreen.
On the one hand, I'm only beginning to get the hang of this "be a little generous and make room for players' natural personality" thing myself, on the other, my join date isn't in the oughts.

numberQ #492
I don't see what ISN'T potentially scummy about making ridiculous accusations and then saying they're not actually that serious later on, which iirc is what happened.

implosion #298
this post expects fua to be a different (or maybe more advanced?) player than they are. What you hoped to get out of poking at this is the actual question
[/used to be a spoiler]


also love how page 18 can be summed up as "guilty lion forgets that Mafia is almost entirely a game of hypotheticals where you convince others to believe in yours" I can't help bringing that up


And here's where i'm at right now.

[lock-town]
fua, obviously.

[can stay]
-

[can maybe/probably stay]

nsg

,

ydrasse

,

shirou

[the flip would help]
Cephrir, Tejate

[can go]
GuiltyLion, imaginality, implosion

[??????]
numberQ, Amazonian,

morph

Those in blue/bold are those I expect might change after reading the updates

also I thought Shirou was also gonna be lock-town for me when reading much of the beginning of the game but I'm actually surprised I don't feel comfortable doing that anymore.

Huh. Turns out their very next post after I stopped catching up, they actually start to effort (which to be fair is like 7 pages after I stopped).

However, even if it’s a little better, 1209 is still a very light touch. Compare GL’s analysis of me versus redtea’s here. tea is just kind of pointing out things, and only once do they imply any of those things is scummy. Ultimately they sort me into the ??? category, but somehow they want implosion to go despite only having one scummy thing to say about him. (I think they’re saying 298 is scummy? Not a lot of clear language in redtea’s posts so far.)

Overall, this post feels very haphazard.

might've missed it bc i was skimming but kinda bummed no one responded to my questions in #1209. Like I didn't ask them just to ask, I asked because if someone had something to say it would be helpful to me.

a little old now but

@morph is this about me not responding to your question about my current fua read you posited *checks watch* 8 hours ago

You posted again a few hours after I asked the question without answering it. That's is of more concern to me than how many hours since I asked.

I just assumed you would've read #982 and held off on a follow-up accordingly, even if that @ wasn't to you

They draw attention back to their 1209 mini-wall. Though I’m not sure what questions they asked which they now are saying they want answered. There are exactly 3 question marks I counted, and only one of them seems more than rhetorical. Actually that one is directed at me lol. If I forget to answer it later, yell at me.

ooooh fun fun fun

i suppose i would be interested in why he chose redtea specifically.

right so I finally have the time/energy to specifically go into what I didn't like in redtea's ISO

let me break it down:

330 - it seems a little odd to me to open by saying that 328 made you laugh while also claiming to have not read the game fully yet. There'd be missing context for what I was pushing fua for, no reads on fua/myself to interpret our interaction - like is that post still as funny if fua is scum trying to discredit me? just seemed to me like an odd entry in the game and something that's more likely to come from an informed perspective re:fua and I's alignments, rather than town who hasn't read up

it's funny because the wording was hilarious, especially given I remember fua being a bit more uptight in our previous game. Did this really warrant digging in to?

331 is a bad post. redtea doesn't give any indication of whether they are townreading fua, all they do is strawman the reason for suspecting fua and push against that strawman, while joking about themselves. Vibes exactly to me like scum who want to make a buddy in fua and also get a joking foothold into the game. The "conversationalist" remark feels like fake analysis, again there's no evidence of a thought process regarding whether town or scum is more likely to be "conversationalist", no evidence of trying to reason about fua's alignment.

332 is also inconsistent with 331 - if redtea only read between posts 248 and 330, and didn't read the beginning of the game, how are they making comments about fua's entry or their ISO? Did redtea read fua in ISO but not the game? why?

I did.
Because I was trying to keep ontop of the game while simultaneously catching up, and wanted to comment that.

Furthermore, I think my thoughts WERE useful- maybe only to me, but they are. I'm making an extra effort this game to understand the personalities and styles of the players to reduce my biases. That way I can "cut away the fat" so to speak. Of course those things are influenced by alignment, but I'm trying to find the sweet spot of what is probably just how they are regardless of alignment. Or at least regardless of alignment as far as I know, because I'm barely keeping up with this game god forbid I get into meta reading.

879-882 reminds me of stuff I do as scum to try to make it seem like I don't have an agenda, giving one opinion then immediately reversing it. it was also just an immediate hasty misrepresentation of my position, redtea acted like I was demanding a lim immediately ("we have 12 days left") when I wasn't.

It's cause I literally misread what was happening like 3 times or something? Thought that was obvious, as those posts are LITERALLY minute to minute.

as for a general pattern of play remark, a lot of redtea's content is in response to stuff happening in the thread when they are here, which indicates that they're at least reading along at some points in the game, but redtea doesn't give any indication whatsoever of their reads or how they see the game until 1209. I don't see proactive effort to engage with people or an obvious direction redtea wants to go for lim or pressure. Very much gives me scum coasting and not giving information vibes

I can't deny this. It's been a while since I played with a significant amount of wall-posters; with that kind of density i'm kind of in a weird loop of starting replies/not finalizing them because im not done reading/running out of time, trying to figure out something out of all that that I don't feel awkward putting out there, and then otherwise trying to make up for it by following along live-ish when I can. I realize I'm kind of a hot mess rn. Im still figuring it out.

And then 1209 is a janky post in that the questions/thoughts section doesn't correlate to the reads at all, as far as I can tell. It's also weird to have a "can go" category (which presumably means scumreads), but then a "flip would help" category for Tejate/Cephrir - what's the difference between "can go" and "flip would help", like is "flip would help" null? Why is that different than the "???" tier? I don't think that part of their post is inherently scum indicative but it sure doesn't show me a solvey/uninformed mindset, it's missing indicators of a town mindset that show me how the reads relate to each other or how they were arrived at.

Honestly I probably should've put the questions and reads in separate posts. The reads were after a session of power-reading.
Though I did say, quote, "I'm not going to case each read of mine, which I know isn't really fair since I haven't been around much to do so in real time, but TOO BAD. You can ask specific questions if you want."

Besides, I do think there is some correlation.
I question numberQ's #270 because fua is a town read, I'm showing how I see the town there, and thus opening up the question of, "now that you see how I view it, does that change how you view it?"

numberQ #273- this goes back to my "i'm trying to cut out the fat" thing, which I just phrased in a different way there. Maybe instead of "smarter play" i should've said "smarter town play". That would've made it clearer that I was shading Cephrir (who is in my bottom two tiers), but also giving a chance for someone more informed on his playstyle to change my mind.

implosion is also in my one of my last two tiers, and what I did was ask him about an especially weaksauce post.


And lastly- I can categorize my tiers how I want. Thank you.

This is more effort posting, so good in the sense that it’s giving me more to sort them. I like this post all the way up to the last quote they respond to. 1209 was already kind of weird (or janky as GL put it), and idk what to make of this justification for it here. I still don’t feel I have a good insight into the perspective behind 1209.

reminds me that an earlier run of this game, people suggested not outing themselves even after expending their abilities because that also narrows down the pr pool for scum. idk if that's been said yet
also idk if that worked out for them but it made sense to me

Just some mech strategizing, but it stood out to me because even for mech stuff it’s pretty much nothing. Talking about mechanics is one of the easiest ways for scum to look like they’re contributing, but redtea isn’t even doing that much. They’re just bringing up something that a previous game did, but only to throw it into the conversation, there’s no real

point

to them saying it. No opinion, no suggestion, nothing.

Overall thoughts: redtea started out very fluffy, which gave me town vibes of not caring. This can be easy to fake as scum however, so I think you sort that by looking at how they continue to play throughout the game. The rest of redtea’s ISO sees them caring a little more than their first 20 or so posts - the fluff gets cut down, but it’s replaced with very minor reads and light analysis. I struggle to see the perspective behind many of their posts, especially the ones where they’re trying.

But I keep coming back to the thought I had originally, which was - is scum this blatantly superficial? There were moments where I felt scum!redtea could have faked more thoughts, like with the mech analysis thing at the end of the spoiler. If this is scum then they’re either really struggling to fake reads in a game that has plenty of bait to do so, or they’re trying really really hard to look like town that doesn’t care.

(I’m going to hold off any explicit reads until I finish at least the imaginality ISO and probably some snooping in Shirou’s as well, since some recent posts indicate that may be important to sorting redtea.)

[numberQ]

I'll vote redtea if it does come down to redtea or me, of course, but currently I would rather see implosion or numberQ limmed and I think there's time for that to happen.

numberQ's iso has a lot of caveats, to-dos and minor questions. He backed off his early suspicion of Cephrir. I'm not seeing anything strikingly towny in his posts.

He can prove himself town by voting implosion with me though - how about it, numberQ?

I don't have a feel for the current gamestate except that there's something between you and redtea. How does implosion factor into that? Why do I need to prove myself town to you, and how does an implo vote do that?

If you help get implosion limmed today and he flips scum it would be extremely unlikely you were bussing him, considering how easily you (if scum) can get away with encouraging or acquiescing to mislimming me instead.

I think implosion has a better chance of flipping scum than redtea and I'm wary that people are trying to make this an imaginality vs redtea dilemma when there's still time to coalesce around a better option.

Hmm. From any perspective but yours the exact same thing can be said about you. If I help get you limmed and you flip scum, then it's unlikely I'm bussing there either. This argument is only helpful to anyone who has you as locktown I think, which is not me.

[numberQ]

This plea isn't improving my opinion of you

[numberQ]

I think that a day's discussion gradually moving towards two competing wagons is natural and happens quite often. imaginality, are you seeing a particular agenda behind Shirou and GL pushing this "imaginality vs redtea" narrative? It just feels weird to attack the entire construct itself and use that as a main point in wanting people to vote implosion (not the only point, but it seems to be factoring heavily into your case)

i’m still super sick and haven’t followed has anything important happened

Looks like the day's lim is between redtea and imaginality, this makes imaginality paranoid. Beyond that I'm still catching up myself.

[numberQ]

> That's part of why redtea looks a bit better to me now, because I think if they're scum as well, scum would be keeping more names in the mix unless they're pretty sure of getting me mislimmed over redtea.

This also feels like a perspective slip.

Wait lmao good catch, "if they're scum as well"

This is in the context of a post talking about people who are pushing for/okay with me v redtea. I'm saying if redtea is scum as well as the people narrowing it down/letting it drift to a 1v1, I think they might more likely have been keen to keep other names open as possible D1 lims, unless they're confident they can get me limmed over redtea.

If the people pushing for you v redtea are scum, then that's most of the scumteam already since I think you pointed out Shirou and GL as being part of that group. And if you think implosion is also scum then that's the whole team. Maybe I'm misreading the numbers you're putting out but if I'm not, then redtea should be townbinned by POE alone. But redtea is instead +town because of a bussing argument?

[numberQ]

I'm seeing a {redtea, imag, ?} scumteam with imag trying very hard to defend himself and his buddy right now. idk if there's something in my catchup that invalidates this theory, which is based almost entirely off imaginality in the past few pages.

[numberQ]

[snip]

i'm coming into this feeling like voting imaginality after some distance from the thread. my memory is full of holes but when i think about reasons to vote for imaginality im like "the scummy stuff he posted" and when i think about reasons to vote for redtea i'm like,,,, morph said so???? maybe i need to reread their posts on the subject or the pages i'm rereading will move me but i don't really get it at the moment.

[snip]

Also Ceph, why are you sheeping Morph like that when you don't town read them?

Do you really think Imaginality accepting all the votes on him and being like "my elimination is okay as long as we get the most information out of it" is less scummy than...redtea's ISO lacking much content?

Let me ask you

How many times have you seen a lurky slot that doesn't have much content in their ISO being just limbait and flipping town?

sometimes. i have bought into the school of thought that lurkers with meh content are actually just scum a shocking percentage of the time in the current meta. it's disappointing, but true. naturally, it's not going to happen every time.

[snip]

The two unsnipped portions are a contradiction no? You see no reason for scumreading redtea but then later you say lurkers with meh content are usually just scum. Unless you think redtea has more than meh content.

[numberQ]

I guess you do say it's not going to happen every time. But surely a "shocking percentage of the time" is more of a reason to vote rt than just sheeping morph.

[numberQ]

Ceph has not been pinging my radar nearly as much, in either direction. His posting feels less directed than it did back when I was pressing him. I have very few notes about him up to page 42, except for his post 897 where he is very waffley on GL. And he says GL's page 35/36 posting "treads into eyeglaze territory" and somehow that's a scumtell?

i see you postulating scumteams that don't include me and i'm not sure how a few pages of not pinging you has overcome what was a singular focus before.

I postulated a single time, and it was specifically about an association between redtea and imag. Wasn't meant to be a full team solve.

I have very few notes about him

literally the exact line in my notes

TODO to ISO him as well. I also noted down

COOL NOTES BRO

thanks bro

But seriously is there something wrong with having notes? idk what you're even trying to say with this

[numberQ]

You're null-scum, opposed to scum from before my VLA. Out of the last few pages where I've been keeping up, I haven't seen anything that stands out as scummy. Though there's a 20 page gap that I haven't read, so you're probably worth an ISO at some point. But current events are more interesting right now.

[numberQ]

@mod can we get a VC please?

[numberQ]

Man I wish I had the ability to catch up as fast as Meg is right now. I just can't retain information at that level of speedreading

[numberQ]

Meg calling out fua's self-awareness thing is interesting. I've certainly made dumb jokes as town before that I thought were obvious, and then ended up getting me some heat. But fua is justifying their self-awareness by saying it was just a joke, while Shirou's self-awareness also seemed very much like a joke, so there's some kind of inconsistency/hypocrisy in fua's reasoning here.

For reference, this is Shirou's post that prompted the vote from fua in the first place. Is this any less of a joke that you pointing out your own AtE fua?

I want to not sit on my ass and be useless this whole time.

haha...useless you say...

"useless" as kinda like as if someone...already had 30 posts in a 170 posts game with 13 players...but had barely talked about anything truly game-related...?

I see...hopefully no one is like that in this game yep...

[numberQ]

I mean it's a legitimate question. You voted Shirou because he made a self-aware comment/joke. Then later you make a self-aware comment and defend it as just a joke. Am I misinterpreting the series of events here?

[numberQ]

I mean it's a legitimate question. You voted Shirou because he made a self-aware comment/joke.

No I didn't.

So 173, the only content being a vote for Shirou and you saying he's too self-aware, is NOT you voting him because he's self-aware?

[numberQ]

I don't like numberQ jumping onto Meg's observation. I don't think the hypocrisy is nearly as important/notable as either of them are framing it to be, especially given fua's Shirou vote was early game, and I also don't think hypocrisy is a scumtell at all. If fua was still championing to lim Shirou on the "self-aware" grounds

maybe

they'd have a point, but it's a bizarre thing to harp on 60+ pages later, particularly from numberQ.

I don't think I said the hypocrisy was scummy? I'm poking at something interesting that I hadn't noticed before Meg's observation.

[numberQ]

I mean it's a legitimate question. You voted Shirou because he made a self-aware comment/joke.

No I didn't.

So 173, the only content being a vote for Shirou and you saying he's too self-aware, is NOT you voting him because he's self-aware?

I explained why my vote was staying on him at that point and you conveniently left it out to support your argument. If you’re going to do an ISO at least have it be useful.

Nowhere did I say or imply I did an ISO, the posts I referenced came from Meg's own quoting. But like... okay? Not sure what this has to do with what I'm saying. Literally all I'm asking is why you used Shirou's self-aware joke as a reason to vote him (even if you later explain it in more detail), and then later used your own self-aware joke as a defense. I completely fail to see how this is in any way "weird". I didn't say it was scummy, I'm not grilling you or anything, it's not this huge thing I'm trying to nail you with. It is literally JUST an observation I thought was interesting and wanted to follow up on to see if anything else interesting would come out of it. Like jesus people, idk what's up with this game and having words/intent put in my mouth

[numberQ]

[snip]

I mean it's a legitimate question. You voted Shirou because he made a self-aware comment/joke.

No I didn't.

So 173, the only content being a vote for Shirou and you saying he's too self-aware, is NOT you voting him because he's self-aware?

You were trying to put words in my mouth. I assumed you had done an ISO, so I'll take the L on that one.

Okay. I guess I should have looked at more of the surrounding context. But whether or not you had more to the vote than just that, bringing it up at all IS incongruous with your later comments on self-awareness. I don't see how that's not obvious, and I don't see how it's weird to question it.

[numberQ]

^ Emphasis on QUESTION. Not "scumread". I'm clarifying because apparently if you don't, people in this game think any amount of questioning is a direct accusation. This isn't even the first time it's happened, so idk, maybe I'm the problem lol

[numberQ]

I like your avatar. What is it?

From a game called An Untitled Story. It's by the creator of Celeste, TowerFall, Jumper, etc and it's really good (and free)! http://www.mattmakesgames.com/ (you have to scroll down to see it)

[numberQ]

Oh there was a hammer. I looked away for a bit after responding to fua there lol. Uhh I'll try to catch up before day end and post thoughts as I go I guess.

[numberQ]

Nowhere did I say or imply I did an ISO, the posts I referenced came from Meg's own quoting. But like... okay? Not sure what this has to do with what I'm saying. Literally all I'm asking is why you used Shirou's self-aware joke as a reason to vote him (even if you later explain it in more detail), and then later used your own self-aware joke as a defense. I completely fail to see how this is in any way "weird". I didn't say it was scummy, I'm not grilling you or anything, it's not this huge thing I'm trying to nail you with. It is literally JUST an observation I thought was interesting and wanted to follow up on to see if anything else interesting would come out of it. Like jesus people, idk what's up with this game and having words/intent put in my mouth

I think my issue with this is that like, you just basically took Meg's word for it instead of going back and checking for any context yourself, it kinda vibes to me like a lazy +1 on somebody else's push rather than something that is likely to help you personally sort fua. posting "observations" is an easy way for scum to put little floaty trial feelers out for who they can plausibly push or get a temperature check on the town, without putting themselves out there too far. if you're town here it'd help me if you made your intentions with this kinda stuff more clear, and if your intention is just "following up on an interesting observation" you should expect some pushback if others think the observation NAI, lazy, ill-thought out, etc

I mean, Meg quoted fua. They were literally fua's words. I didn't "take Meg's word for it". Plus, what context??? You quoted 167 before but that in no way invalidates anything I've said. Maybe I could have been more thoughtful and looked at more context before I commented. But A) I didn't see a reason to at the time because the quoted posts seemed pretty self explanatory, and B) I'm not seeing any evidence it would have changed my thoughts anyway.

Nowhere did I say or imply I did an ISO, the posts I referenced came from Meg's own quoting.

also this isn't really true, you went back and found the Shirou post immediately preceding fua's vote and claimed that the post was the reason for fua's vote

while it's true fua voted after that post, there were a few posts preceding where they had a conversation and fua pointed out other oddities in Shirou's previous posts

so clearly you did go back to reference additional posts, but either you looked at the rest of the context and completely ignored it or you didn't look at any of the other context, and both are kinda ??? to me

That was me clicking on the quote from Meg, then scrolling up a single post. And again, just because fua did have other things to say about Shirou, does not change the fact that one of the things he said was something he himself did later. That is the part I found interesting.

[numberQ]

It would be extremely easy in this environment to justify a hammer here, so that tells me one of these, in order of likely hood, is true...:

A: The wagon is on scum and the buddies are hoping for a reprieve out of apathy.
B: Wagon is on town. Scum are already all on the wagon and afraid to actively cheerlead for day's end
C: Wagon is on town. Scum are partially on the wagon and the holdouts have actively town read the wagonee and therefore cannot justify hopping on or cheerleading.

If it's A do you think it's all town on the wagon then? Unvoting would kill the momentum (or it would have pre-hammer)

[numberQ]

I copped Ceph and got an inno result.

So far I've mostly skimmed today's content, enough to see that AL protected fua. I also started ISOing imaginality over the night to try and see how others interacted with him. (Better late than never on that ISO I promised D1 I guess lol) My thoughts are a little nebulous for now, and I'm trying to factor town!Ceph into them as well, but I feel as though GL approached the imaginality wagon strangely.

He started out wanting to lim redtea, then came around on scum!imaginality, citing implosion and Shirou as convincing him. He provided lots of commentary on the evolving read, giving exact reasons every step as to why he can see what others are saying, but there were always just one or two towntells keeping him from voting. Then finally it was imaginality's bargaining with me that pushed GL over the edge to vote.

Overall, I got this sense that he was carefully charting the trajectory of his read, knowing that imaginality was town. It never struck me as though GL was actually uncertain, it was always more like seeking out reasons to slowly shift into a scumread.

In my skim of D2 so far I did see implosion saying some similar things, if I'm not mistaken. Didn't have a ton of time to read that too deeply though, since I'm like 5 minutes late to something as is.

VOTE: GuiltyLion

I was dead wrong on my Ceph read so that's shaken my confidence a little, but fuck it the day just began and I feel like voting

[numberQ]

Phone posting right now but I just had the thought that with redtea being the competing wagon yesterday, I'm surprised I haven't seen him get pushed yet today. I want to look at who was on his wagon yesterday and ask if they still think he's scum.

[numberQ]

Oh, it was basically just AL. morph was there but then I voted, otherwise it was just imag himself. So maybe not as much of a wagon as I remembered.

[numberQ]

Not sure how that "I" snuck in there, should just be "morph was there but then unvoted"

[numberQ]

To be clear, nQ isn't confirmed town in any way, though I (still) don't think he's scum. There's technically an off chance of every "confirmed" player being scum but I have no interest in looking at any of them closely until at least like, day 5 if any are still alive.

And yeah fua and ceph are the more valuable ones because they're the ones being vouched for, and also because they still have their power role shots. fua moreso because they claimed cop but a theoretical n2 doc (i can't imagine who would be such a role) should be open to some wifom on who they target in theory. Another option is that we could leash ydrasse onto fua, and then a potential other n2 doc if they exist could target ceph, which could be nice.

Tbh, with ydrasse's claim, *another* way we could play is that if fua is a n2 cop they could say so explicitly in which case we'd

definitely

leash Ydrasse to them. fua shouldn't claim as much until/unless we decide they should, but if so then we can get a guaranteed reliable cop shot (or ydrasse-scum would kill them and out herself). On second thought though probably it's best to have fua not claim and just have Ydrasse on fua either way.

So... was there a point to this post? I think every single thing you said was either "maybe this but also maybe this", or you backtracked it a few sentences later.

[numberQ]

The implo/GL interaction ended on a weird, abrupt note from both parties.

anyway uh

that was a strong reaction and a lot of posts and I don't want to like, turn this into a full on 1v1 that might make my points less salient

so I'm gonna take a thread break

Didn't seem like that strong a reaction to me, unless you just mean posting a lot in a row. And why would a 1v1 make your points less salient?

And I do want to emphasize that for the crowd that I don't immediately know how much my "case" convinces me myself because, like I said, I was specifically trying to look for scum motivation in things. I'm hoping that it + looking at GL's reaction will help sort him better but I don't really have a strong opinion on his reaction so far.

There are two reasons that I decided to do this for GL in particular: one, as mentioned, I think I need to come up with some novel way to read him. Two, I have a sort of vague wishy-washy gamestate feeling that he makes sense as scum. Basically exactly the paranoia that I described him as lacking: I feel like the sort of status quo of reads is not good enough with imaginality flipping town. The nQ claim alleviates that feeling a fair amount but it's still there.

How do you not have an opinion on GL after multiple wall cases? Even if you're waiting for more of a reaction, I struggle to see how you can dive into someone's ISO that much and come out the other end with nothing.

[numberQ]

brain says shitou then but gut says shirou scum
VOTE: Shirou

Feels agenda-y and less interested in actually solving

Reading this was a shock because I found myself nodding along to Shirou's posting here.

A mechanical thought: I think no-limming today may actually be the best move, but not sure. The advantage to continuing to lim every day is that a doc save earns us an extra mislim; I believe this is literally the only mechanical advantage. No-limming in this setup is actually pretty nice, because it basically "improves" every remaining cop by one night. If there are any n2 cops, we'll be able to use their info for the next elimination rather than the following one, etc etc. We lower the risk of eliminating any cops before they're able to use their shots, and if there

is

a doc save tonight then we can just do it again.

The other downside is there's a good chance we'd lose probably ceph (assuming that we leash Ydrasse to fua). But scum couldn't just safely kill him either, because we could easily have another n2 doctor.

I don't think we should no lim. Your point about using potential cop flips for later days is kind of shaky. What if there's NO cop tonight? Then we're just risking a doc protect failing, missing out on an informative flip, and giving up a chance to lim scum.

What about this post in particular gives you that impression? I don't really feel like it's that dissimilar from this.

I literally explain what I think town!you would do in this situation rather than posting that...like, this question also feels unnecessary Tejate. As if you're asking just to ask, post just to post. I felt some...fire and greater purpose from your posts on the newbie game and I don't here.

Also that vote Meg...kinda

hilarious

to hear you saying I'm not interested in solving. Have you ever looked at your own ISO...?

I don't recall myself trying to force a 50/50 between two players that I haven't interacted with.

Solving doesn't actually require much vocalization but pushing an agenda does. Activity isn't AI.

Would love to hear more of what you think of ceph/ ydrasse at this point

What's the 50/50 that Shirou forced? I have a headache so it's possible that's making me not remember something.

[numberQ]

There's more I wanted to comment on but headache

[numberQ]

I'm not like, wed to the idea, to be clear.

I did see implosion saying his point was to try to evaluate me from a biased view because he's afraid of my scum game after White Flag, and while I can understand that idea I don't know if I'm sold that it really takes away the issues I had with what he posted because it basically excuses him from having to account for/address town explanations for my play.

It's not hard to find the town explanations... hence me hard townreading you when you were town and then hard townreading you when you were scum >.>

Starting to feel like I was wrong on GL at day start, and from that perspective implosion's case on him is very opportunistic. I know he voiced concerns over GL before I did, but it wasn't until I also did so independently that he started going in harder. Except not that hard? Because he keeps caveating it like in the quoted post. So throw in a dose of hedginess to the opportunism and I'm gonna jump over here.

VOTE: implosion

[numberQ]

nQ, that post isn't a caveat. It's an explanation that it's easy for me to townread GL in practice because I did it in the other two games I played with him recently, hence, I can't just townread him in this game for things that I "typically" would. I have been hedgy on it but I've also clearly listed him as a top scumread atm; it's just that I don't feel like my reads are the most solid in the world.

I've also explicitly said this game that I think opportunism is a good thing, generally. Why wouldn't I want to take an opportunity to pressure someone?

Oh, maybe I did misunderstand. When you said "hard townreading you [GL] when you were scum" I guess you were referring to that other game?

[numberQ]

Alright well, the point remains. I misinterpreted one part of your posts but I don't feel that negates my arguments. You're leaning into them by straight up admitting it was opportunistic and hedgy, instead of trying to rationalize it away like I think I was expecting. So I'm not sure how to feel about that.

What do you make of GL voting you while you were casing him? Does that point towards one alignment over the other?

[numberQ]

I'm not sure I grok what a "gamestate read" is. Sounds similar to PoE, in that the read is due to elements outside the slot itself?

[numberQ]

I was going to make this part of the big post, but I'll just leave this here so I've at least posted something beyond "I am making a post." So here you go, have something while I type furiously and try to figure out how to copypaste quotes from spoilers.

Spoiler: Night 2 Cop proposal

Shirou is one of the best possible cop checks if we have a night 2 cop.

Now now, I know what some of you may be thinking. We should be trying to generate guilties, not checking widely townread players. To that, I'd like to ask you to re-evaluate what exactly it is that makes you think Shirou

won't

generate a guilty. There have been some lingering doubts ever since NSG's paranoia post. They have constantly taken a very town-leaderly approach, which is extremely dangerous if they're scum. It is better that we clear any doubts about this slot sooner than later. If we do this too late and they turn out to be scum it's more than likely that the damage has already been done and we're on the verge of losing anyways. Worst case scenario, we have 3 real cop checks left and 2 to 3 fake ones, and I think it is absolutely in town's best interest to place one of them here.

This smells bad. I think we have several players in the list who have taken similar approaches to Shirou, i.e., diving in and having detailed, thorough conversations with their reads. I'm not sure I'd call it a town leader approach per se, but it's not unique to Shirou this game. And idk, something ineffable about the phrasing of this is just weird. I can't tell if it's just me not gelling with Tejate's way of speaking or what.

[numberQ]

I don't feel like continuing this conversation is +town regardless of your alignment at this point.

do you think I care about whether it's +town or not?

do you think I care about whether I'm being oh so helpful for the collective town or not

what I DO CARE about is deciding whether I should death tunnel your slot or not because not only I feel bad-faith is all over your approach on my slot, but also because even if you're town I don't trust your judgement on other slots very much if that's your "case"/"read" on me, and your logic is so alien that it tilts me as well.

do you want me to write you a better case on myself so that you can adopt it rather than the kind of stuff you've been using? I could consider being that generous I think

If you are town and are trying to do things that hurt the towns chances of winning that is..... not good

If you want to death tunnel go ahead but no need to disrupt conversation while doing so

The whole Shirou/Meg thing is so bizarre to me. And this post in particular really stands out. It's like... Meg tunnels Shirou on weird logic that gets refuted over and over, Shirou gets frustrated about it, then Meg shades Shirou for that frustration being anti-town. Feels like entrapment or something.

[numberQ]

Happy birthday fua and happy scumday Shirou!

[numberQ]

I was going to make this part of the big post, but I'll just leave this here so I've at least posted something beyond "I am making a post." So here you go, have something while I type furiously and try to figure out how to copypaste quotes from spoilers.

Spoiler: Night 2 Cop proposal

Shirou is one of the best possible cop checks if we have a night 2 cop.

Now now, I know what some of you may be thinking. We should be trying to generate guilties, not checking widely townread players. To that, I'd like to ask you to re-evaluate what exactly it is that makes you think Shirou

won't

generate a guilty. There have been some lingering doubts ever since NSG's paranoia post. They have constantly taken a very town-leaderly approach, which is extremely dangerous if they're scum. It is better that we clear any doubts about this slot sooner than later. If we do this too late and they turn out to be scum it's more than likely that the damage has already been done and we're on the verge of losing anyways. Worst case scenario, we have 3 real cop checks left and 2 to 3 fake ones, and I think it is absolutely in town's best interest to place one of them here.

This smells bad. I think we have several players in the list who have taken similar approaches to Shirou, i.e., diving in and having detailed, thorough conversations with their reads. I'm not sure I'd call it a town leader approach per se, but it's not unique to Shirou this game. And idk, something ineffable about the phrasing of this is just weird. I can't tell if it's just me not gelling with Tejate's way of speaking or what.

Shirou and myself have bumped heads quite possibly the most of any two slots. Up there with GL and implosion, at least. It's not that I'm not making an effort to read Shirou through the course of the game, I made that post because I genuinely believe that this is not a bad idea.

Maybe it is a problem how I talk, because that's clearly gotten me in a heap of entirely avoidable trouble this game. I tend to type things out stream of consciousness to help me sort out my thoughts.

The phrasing isn't the main thing that stood out to me, maybe I shouldn't have even brought it up because that's incredibly subjective and I don't know you on the level to get a read out of your way of speaking.

Mainly, I'm unsure why Shirou specifically. It is true you've had quite a bit of back and forth with him, so if that's also driving your desire to see him copped, okay. But none of the reasons you gave in the original quote are specific to him. What makes Shirou fit your description better than, for example, GL?

[numberQ]

After some rumination this is where I think my reads are right now.

Conf town

Ceph

Town

Shirou
AL
fua

Null town

morph

Null

Ydrasse

Lean scum

GL
implosion
Tejate

Scum

redtea
Meg

Every category is ordered more or less, so for example Shirou is townier than AL, who's townier than fua.

AL is so high mainly because of the doc claim. I actually think by play fua is probably more town, but the claim put AL a slot higher. Otherwise AL would be null town or maybe null.

I waffled a bit on whether I thought there was enough association between GL/implo from the interaction earlier today, that they shouldn't be in the same category. But ultimately it was too much wine so I threw them both in lean scum. If either flips scum I'd put the other higher, but a town flip would not necessarily make the other one drop lower.

I built a case off redtea's ISO yesterday and then just kind of dropped it since the day ended before I could finalize my thoughts in comparison to imaginality. Literally nothing has changed in my read since then, except they have less of a shield to defend their low activity / light touch since it's not day 1 anymore. I actually had redtea in lean scum at first, because the lack of activity was still softening my read a little. But nah. AL pointed out redtea probably shouldn't live until M/ELo without demonstrating more activity, and I agree.

Which leads to Meg. The stand outs in their ISO include: a hyperfast skim, the fua self-awareness thing, and the Shirou thing. The more I think about their tunneling on Shirou the worse it looks. I want to see Meg look through Shirou's ISO and point out a pattern of scummy behavior, because their main points (they are approaching Tejate with an agenda, and they're noncommittal/uninquisitive) just really ring hollow. Particularly after saying multiple times through their catch up that Shirou is town. Which, yeah, it's just a skim and reads can change. But at some point if you really see scum in a slot that others do not, you have to actually read the slot.

VOTE: Meg

[numberQ]

Didn't mean to be away for so long, a looming deadline at work has kept me scrambling madly the past 3 days. But the deadline has passed so I'm planning to get back into this tomorrow. I see I missed another 15 pages soooo I will definitely try to read all of that. But I'm expecting it goes the same way that my attempt to read ~20 pages I missed on D1 went. i.e., I'll get some percentage of the way through before my eyes glaze over.

[numberQ]

Okay, I've been picking at the thread for the past few hours between doing actual work. Got to the end of page 92, and it's making me want to pivot back to implosion. Though part of that pivot does depend on a redtea town flip, and the main reason I think that could be the flip is because of the vibes I'm getting from implosion, so it's kind of an ouroboros.

Spoiler: comments on implo, pages 88-92

I want to point out that Tejate's eagerness to claim is also something that I feel like is drastically more typical of newbie town than of newbie scum. There are exceptions of course but as a rule, I feel like newbie town is more likely to earnestly feel like a claim will make a difference than newbie scum who would rather hold their cards to their chest.

It's honestly at the point where even if redtea is town, the reactions from implo and Shirou are outright bizzare. Shirou has listed them in their "options for who to vote today" list along with myself and Meg, yet has not so much as even hinted at voting or even pressuring the slot.

If anything, implosion has handled it

less

strangely than Shirou has, since implo seems to have some degree of intent to actually properly case redtea.

I smell blood in the water. I'm not that good at getting all of my thoughts out in large blocks, so hopefully this smaller post helps you guys understand better why exactly I want Shirou copped beyond him simply being the obvious wagon leader.

Do you vaguely think that me and/or Shirou are like, trying to keep the limbait around for later or something like that?

This is a setup where every player either has a PR, or has to pretend like they have one. I don’t think in that light Tejate’s eagerness to claim is more likely newbie town. Would newb scum rather just never claim at all? I think they’d be on pins and needles about it and ready to get it off their chest ASAP. This feels like a fake reason to townread someone.

---

The condensed version has already been said, hence wanting to elaborate.

redtea is town because their approach to the game lacks any coherent scum motivation, whereas town struggling to keep up could reasonably play in this way.

Why can’t scum struggling to keep up also play this way?

---

I feel very shrug. I can't really deny that it's good for the game even if I think it'll flip town. I'll just either have more egg on my face than when i said i had egg on my face or i'll be slightly more smug than i said i'd be (although I guess some people are saying my reasons aren't valid even if redtea flips town, so I'm legally not allowed to be smug if they do flip town )

Don’t like this at all. Makes me think a town flip for redtea means implosion is scum. Feels a lot like scum knowing what the flip will be and trying to get points so they can say “see! I was right all along! But I didn’t

know

I’d be right.”

---

My read on Shirou hasn't changed: still think he's town, wouldn't be surprised if wrong but not interested in limming any time soon.

My thoughts on that thing you called out and your alignment depending on redtea's are that I did the same thing as Shirou, just more explicitly, so I can't exactly fault him for it. At this point I will suspect you more on a townflip than a scumflip though tbf part of that is just because there'll be 3 scum alive instead of 2. One of the big reasons I incorrectly townread you in white flag was off of "this couldn't be a bus" so I'm reluctant to give any material credit to your alignment in the event of a scumflip (yes, that conflict was very different from this one, but etc).

Admitting to scummy behavior is still scummy behavior. This line also pings me: "At this point I will suspect you more on a townflip than a scumflip though tbf part of that is just because there'll be 3 scum alive instead of 2." - It's basically a complete non-statement, and looks designed to lay a foundation for SRing GL after redtea flips town.

I am determined to get through the rest of the pages, unlike last day-end where I kept saying I would and ended up never doing it lol. So expect more from me later tonight after I go home and eat.

[numberQ]

Got to the end of page 98 before needing to take a break. As you can imagine most of my thoughts are on Shirou. It's pretty stream of conscious, fair warning.

Spoiler: Shirou thoughts, pages 93-98ish

oh why am I claiming

BECAUSE GL IS SCUM

and I don't have enough energy to convince you guys in this slow ass game that he's scum, so If I die not only I get the easy way to confirm my slot that's increasingly looking like a miselimination, but also still manage to shade GL.

If GL is town I don't see why scum would nightkill me here. Tomorrow like this they would get a free no elimination day which would remove the advantage we have because we protected a townie correctly, and GL if town would still tunnel me anyway and miseliminate me even if I got an inno. "What if GL changed his mind". I think if GL changes his mind he's also scum so...?

Meg may be town

Tejate may or not be town

Right now gun to my head it's 3 out of GL/Morph/Ydra/Tejate

I really don’t think you’re increasingly looking like a mislim. And this whole plan is… weird.

Here are the outcomes:

Town!Shirou, scum!GL. Now you have to convince us that he’s scum, even though you said you don’t want to convince us that he’s scum in this “slow ass game” (which tbh I think is moving at a pretty decent pace).

Town!Shirou, town!GL. You predict that GL will tunnel you and it could result in a mislim, but at least we have confirm town in GL. Probably the best outcome of this plan, but still a -town one ultimately.

Scum!Shirou, scum!GL. Uhhh, no clue. Very unlikely I think. I’m only including this for completeness.

Scum!Shirou, town!GL. You claim guilty and trade 1 for 1 at best, which seems suboptimal when we’ve got the advantage right now. Or you claim inno and, as stated before, you’ve already predicted GL will tunnel you. So maybe a smokescreen or something for a scumbuddy?

Going to hold off on forming a solid opinion until I read further.

---

WHY YOU THINK SCUM ME NEVER CLAIMS AN INNO ON YOU TO TRY TO WIFOM?

uh, yeah. Correct play for scum on D3 is to claim a guilty and use it to brute force a miselim, especially if we've already miselimmed twice

if you're scum, claiming an inno is a bad move 100% of the time

Is this still the best move when there was a protection N1 and we lim their scum buddy D2? Because now scum is down two points, and they only get a 1 for 1 trade out of this. This is assuming we do hit scum today, so if redtea is Shirou’s buddy, I don’t see the 1-for-1 scenario being the plan here.

Shirou says pretty much the same thing in the very next post.

---

The reason I'm doing this is because even if I go down I'm trying my best to bring GL with me.

After redtea likely flips town GL is gonna do the whole "OH SHIROU AND IMPLO WERE SO SCUMMY BY DEFENDING REDTEA" and try to get the last two miseliminations to win

I'm not fucking sitting while I watch that. If I call cop tomorrow I don't have energy enough to convince you guys away from the argument he's gonna use that "it's a desperation claim to buy a no elimination day!" either. I bet money he would get another free miselimination tomorrow on either me or implo from the way this is going.

We can also do this:

We can no eliminate today, and eliminate redtea tomorrow, and if I die you eliminate GL next. I would be fine with it as well.

Putting aside the actual validity of the plan here, how can you possibly say something like “if I die, lim GL”? It’s like you’re chugging from the WIFOM hose.

---

what's theoretically optimal doesn't matter once you realize GL is very very likely scum and you're gonna let him endgame from the way things are going.

The more consensus suspects seem like redtea...implo and now me?

yeah that's a mafia win in my book

Idk what this consensus is you’re talking about. redtea is the only widely SRed slot in that list. implo’s slot is in some contention, and before this whole thing I think you were pretty strongly TRed.

Looks like Tejate had the same thought.

---

If I'm scum with redtea as you all seem to be thinking, the worst that can happen by no eliminating one day and eliminating redtea on the other, is that you'll lose the possibility to get one extra elimination, but you'll still have nailed down two scum either way, and would have used NONE of the remaining cop checks on either of us

If I'm truly a town cop and GL is scum, if you eliminate me before I get the check on GL, you're basically gonna be likely two mislims down (me and redtea) and have no confirmed scum.

As far as I can tell GL is the main person pushing the idea that you’re scum with redtea. So “you all” seems like a bit of an overexaggeration.

And again I’m pretty sure your plan only works if we already have confidence in your reads.

---

There’s a lot more Shirou content and I’m done commenting on every single one. Suffice to say I had Shirou pretty high up my reads list before, and now I’m really seeing what GL has been saying about them. This outburst is a pretty intense emotional 180, and the entire time Shirou keeps saying how they have no energy to argue their points. But they have the energy to lay out no lim plans and, well, argue their points.

Oh and this is very strange too:

VOTE: no elimination

I believe we should do this but I can vote redtea as long as most people explicitly agree with this:

@everyone Do we agree on no elimination tomorrow?

I can't find it now but I'm pretty sure Shirou had a post just a few pages before this one saying they don't trust that we'll do the no lim tomorrow even if we agree to it today, which is why he was pushing so hard to do it today. Either I missed a change of heart or... idk. That's about as far as I got in that thought.

Going to take a break then try to push through the last few pages to be current.

[numberQ]

Made it through but definitely felt some fatigue the past 5 or 6 pages. Thoughts will be scattered.

---

Shirou's no lim plan still has me wary. I think redtea's flip (assuming the wagon actually manages to go through and stop sputtering) will help me decide how I feel about it.

Town!redtea I think points towards no lim being a good idea. It would be +town for Shirou so I'd be less suspicious of scum motivation behind the plan, plus we'll be two mislims in so more caution is probably a good thing.

Scum!redtea, I think we don't no lim, for essentially the exact opposite reasons.

---

I once had the same thought as Meg's paranoia over fua and AL possibly gambiting the cop/doc claim, but ultimately felt like there were too many holes and contrivances for that to be true, so I didn't bring it up. I think it's an easy hole for scum to poke in the confidence of the claims to potentially head off an unwanted fua investigation now that we have at least one protect set up to make it more likely the investigation comes to pass.

Buuuut reading back over that, I'm going to call myself out on that argument being a little reachy lol. Probably more NAI than anything for Meg to have that thought.

---

interesting mix on/off of my wagon

This encapsulates every redtea post in the thread, every single one

[numberQ]

unless you believe Amazonian is also scum

I would literally self-vote in xylim under the assumption that Spay gave me a fake town role PM than vote Amazonians at any point in this game levels of they're town.

Which is why i'm lock-towning the shit out of Fua too.

I townread them! Just pointing out that suspecting fua over possible no NK shenanigans seems like the wrong way to entertain the possibilities of N1. Realistically, there are 4 things that could have happened night one.

1) doc!Amazonian protected cop!fua. Exactly what was stated was what happened. I really see no reason to doubt this at the moment.
2) scum!Amazonian fake protects scum!fua. But why? Neither of them are like, anywhere close to being in the danger zone? Amazonian was fairly TR'd and fua was close to locktown for almost everyone but me. This really makes no sense from a motivation perspective, even as WIFOM this would be baffling?
3) doc!Amazonian protected scum!fua, mafia make no kills this night. As stated, this seems unlikely. It would essentially require mafia to make a lucky guess that A) there was a night 1 doc at all and B) that the n1 doc would protect scum. This makes no sense unless 4 cop 6 doc, again even as WIFOM.
4) scum!Amazonian "protected" cop!fua, mafia make no kills. Of the 3 possibilities besides the obvious, this seems the most likely. Amazonian is in complete control of their own claim, so this wouldn't be relying on luck to pull off in theory. And fua is just an obvious protect. This would also have the benefit of strengthening all TR's on Amazonian, which is something scum may actually consider worth not killing for after pulling off a mis-elim d1.

That being said, while I have thought about this some, I still feel like it makes the most sense that a doc protected a cop.

Mostly playing devil's advocate here, but 2 could just be to lock themselves into townreads. You don't have to be in the danger zone as scum to want that.

[numberQ]

[snip]

I could be completely offbase here. But the last part of that theory is that if scum know they have six town cops they're fighting, they're going to be positioning themselves around that now. Especially since I'd expect to see at least eight cop claims total. This means I'd expect scum to have planned their claims already and be ready to get them out there. I'm very much side-eyeing premature cop claims as such.

--PA

Why would there be 8 cop claims? Any claim split besides 6:7 or 7:6 would be suboptimal for scum because it gives more information about the setup composition. Maxing out at 7 means at most town can deduce there's a single scum in that group. Going all the way to 8 means town can guarantee there are 2 in that group.

[numberQ]

VOTE: redtea

[numberQ]

Yeah pretty sure E-1, that was my intent anyway

[numberQ]

I was ready to vote morph from fua's claim but now I'm hesitant. Here are the possibilities:

1) Town!fua had a real guilty on scum!morph. No need for further analysis.

2) Town!fua faked a guilty on morph (town or scum, doesn't matter for this analysis). I guess fua might do this to get more out of his 1-shot investigate. He's 100% confident on his morph scumread but wants to get a real result someone else. This is an Incredibly Bad Idea™, and if this is what's happening then fua should absolutely come clean.

3) Scum!fua faked a guilty on town!morph. This means the mafia are willing to trade just to take out morph. Seems unlikely? That means they're purposefully leaving a single partner to take out 6 slots, when there's still at least 1 more doctor and 3 more cops that haven't acted yet. Potentially 3 doctors or 5 cops, if I'm counting right.

I dunno. I think if morph and Enchant hadn't been skeptical I probably would have just blindly followed the cop. Actually if it had been just morph, I probably still would have voted because I'd see it as caught scum throwing out a hail mary. It just seems very unlikely to me that a real cop would lie about their result, but apparently it's happened before with Wake88.

[numberQ]

Actually i will vote in both cases.

Wait so then wouldn't you just... vote now?

[numberQ]

Good morning. This topic of contention is dreadfully boring, so I'll say this. If fua is lying and doesn't retract their guilty result before the end of Day 3, I'll move to policy lim them. We good on that whole WIFOM debate now? Cause fua is almost certainly town and an investigation on morph makes sense.

Onto topics I actually find interesting to discuss at length, I may need to do some re-working of my reads. If morph flips red, at least one of implo and Shirou actually came up with that not very good reason to townread redtea on their own, as opposed to something thrown around in scum PT. If I had to pick scum out of those two, it would almost certainly be Shirou. implo's read on redtea, while pretty faulty on the logic front, is consistent with the rest of his posts. Shirou's recent posts shortly below the redtea elim do not sound as if they come from town, at all.

Are you talking about Shirou's case on GL and their plan to no lim today? Out of Shirou's entire ISO that's really the only section that's given me reason to hard scumread them, whereas I've felt implo has given me several reasons to scumread.

[numberQ]

I should probably look back at Shirou's ISO for real instead of relying on my memories of how I felt about it.

[numberQ]

So you're not a N2 cop, then?

No, but thanks to Morph for bullying me into outing that.

da fuq?

[numberQ]

On night 1 they went for a risk, on night 2 they went for a guarantee. Makes sense to me.

I think this is it. Anyone saying scum should have taken a risk because they're losing is blind to the perspective that losing scum would be looking for two things in a NK target: 1) no doc protect, and 2) reduces town's ability to POE. Killing a PR is nice but also directly at odds to point 1. Enchant is the only other slot that neatly fits those criteria I think, besides AL.

[numberQ]

There were quite a few people hard TRing Enchant yesterday. Not sure why scum would be planning a mislim on him without that sentiment changing.

[numberQ]

I wanna send shirou but it's a bad idea today.
Makes me inclined for no lim but limming prolly best
Most likely lim for me atm is getting on the morph wagon

Can you elaborate on the no lim thing? Idk why you're inclined for no lim but you also think a lim is best.

[numberQ]

fua, you want doctors to out their nights AND only protect a publicly agreed upon target? Doesn't that just tell scum exactly who they can kill on any given night?

[numberQ]

fua, you want doctors to out their nights AND only protect a publicly agreed upon target? Doesn't that just tell scum exactly who they can kill on any given night?

Yeah because it means protecting a cop who’s going to use their check which is more valuable than preserving a confirmed townie anyway.

fua, you want doctors to out their nights AND only protect a publicly agreed upon target? Doesn't that just tell scum exactly who they can kill on any given night?

I mean there are two claimed cops already. Not hard for mafia to tell who might be protected. The point of this is to preserve a cop check at night which will confirm a townie or confirm a scum, the latter of which is a trade I’m completely willing to make.

These are both fair points even if you sent one of them by accident lol

[numberQ]

2809 leaves such a bad taste in my mouth. I don't know what a good way is for town to justify their poorly-received gambits, but this did not look like that. The gambit itself is totally disproportionate in terms of risk/reward, and everything Shirou has said about it afterwards has just been scum desperate to paint it in a better light. I really struggle to see it as anything but that. Shirou was pretty high on my reads list up until the GL thing yesterday, and the aftermath today is just making me feel worse and worse about the slot.

VOTE: Shirou

At this point I don't see a reason to see out their cop claim. It will just muddy the waters more when they do turn out to be scum. Unless we have a strong contender for who their partner is and people think there's value in letting the cop claim go through for some reason.

There are sour opinions on morph's alignment so maybe somebody will argue that they're a better lim today. I'm not getting those same vibes, morph's felt null-town for most of the game and as I go back and look at the reaction to fua's fake-claim I do think it's +town.

[numberQ]

I keep going back and forth on how the claim should go, or if it should at all. What if every claims cop or doc, and only then do we go back around and claim nights? I have no idea if that's helpful at all but for some reason I'm still nervous about publicly outing nights for either role. I can't put it into words, so maybe it's baseless.

[numberQ]

Actually I think everyone should keep claiming. Why listen to Shirou?

ouch...

sigh

numberq

please

I'm begging you and anyone with the same idea...

it's fine to eliminate me and scum read me even if I come up with a guilty tomorrow, but please not today.

If you are scum, I think it would be a bad idea to let you live another day. It will mean a wasted day as we mull over your fake result. Even if we quick lim you, what does that gain us over getting rid of scum today? And I don't like the idea of giving you another chance to NK someone to try and turn perception away from limming you tomorrow.

If anyone has a compelling reason to want hear the results of Shirou's investigation tomorrow I'll listen, but to me it just feels like setting ourselves up to muddy the waters further.

[numberQ]

I mulled on it over night and I guess it does make sense to leave Shirou alive today. It gives me a lot of pause though because the biggest proponent of that plan is the person who's at the chopping block. So if Shirou is scum that means Shirou getting out this investigation factors into scum's plans somehow. But idk, maybe it's just desperation to last as long as possible.

Actually, even if Shirou isn't scum, there hasn't been much push to lim him today besides from me, and I don't think that would be a difficult mislim to pull off. Which means either way him surviving to tomorrow is part of scum's plan.

hmm. I'm gonna leave my vote here but I plan to look back and focus on who the other scum might be.

[numberQ]

Playing a bit of catch up since work buried me most of the day.

implo's plan is actually pretty good I think, I tried looking at it from various scum!X angles and I think even if one of the claimed N3 cops is in fact scum, this gives them very little room to maneuver.

What's the point of the pools though? Is there a reason not to chain cops to targets now? I think no matter what scum will probably be trying to hit cops instead of targets so I don't see widening the NK pool as a good reason, unless there's something I'm not seeing.

[numberQ]

also, I hadn't gone back and reread the very first page or so at daystart, but for the record

I was ready to vote morph from fua's claim but now I'm hesitant. Here are the possibilities:

1) Town!fua had a real guilty on scum!morph. No need for further analysis.

2) Town!fua faked a guilty on morph (town or scum, doesn't matter for this analysis). I guess fua might do this to get more out of his 1-shot investigate. He's 100% confident on his morph scumread but wants to get a real result someone else. This is an Incredibly Bad Idea™, and if this is what's happening then fua should absolutely come clean.

3) Scum!fua faked a guilty on town!morph. This means the mafia are willing to trade just to take out morph. Seems unlikely? That means they're purposefully leaving a single partner to take out 6 slots, when there's still at least 1 more doctor and 3 more cops that haven't acted yet. Potentially 3 doctors or 5 cops, if I'm counting right.

I dunno. I think if morph and Enchant hadn't been skeptical I probably would have just blindly followed the cop. Actually if it had been just morph, I probably still would have voted because I'd see it as caught scum throwing out a hail mary. It just seems very unlikely to me that a real cop would lie about their result, but apparently it's happened before with Wake88.

THIS is the kind of post I would suspect comes from scum if you are town and scum knows it was a fake guilty

very over-explainy, seems to want to project genuinely evaluating all the options, all the while hedgey with a certain self-consciousness "It just seems very unlikely to me that a real cop would lie about their result, but apparently it's happened before"

fwiw I do quite often like to break things down into possibilities and evaluate the options.

morph no thoughts on that numberQ post I called out? if you really are town then that looks to me like someone who knows it

It's something I have thought about, but there are two concerns I have about reading that post the way you are.

- it kinda fits with his posting style throughout this game.
- IMO this isn't the day to start tearing into n1 results claims. Though, it's less likely to cause a shit storm fake-claiming an inno result on town or fellow scum than faking-claiming a guilty result on town.

He's right about our alignment and aside from PA, people reading us correctly this game hasn't been all that common. Maybe that's a worrisome sign. BUT. He came back with an inno on day 2 on a player he had a strong scumread of during day 1. And Ceph was another player who wasn't picking up a bunch of townreads on day 1, iirc.

Not sure what you mean by I'm right about your alignment. iirc I haven't talked about your slot in quite a while and it was more null than anything when I did. The past in game day or two I've been trying to sort out what I think about your slot because it feels like people are seeing scumtells that I'm not picking up on, which always frustrates me.

[numberQ]

Sure. I also think it's best to swap nQ/Meg. So how does this look:

Shirou: GL/numberQ
fua: implosion/Shirou/Tejate
implosion: morph/Meg

Hmm, I almost feel like I shouldn't be in the Shirou pool if people are uncertain about my alignment. Because A) seems unlikely Shirou cops anyone but GL, and B) if Shirou is scum that'll confirm nothing.

[numberQ]

Obviously I'm against that in principle. Though admittedly even from my perspective of knowing my alignment, there's some limited +town utility in my flip because it'll hard confirm one or two other slots, i.e. Ceph and whatever info can be gleaned from his investigate or protect.

At this point Shirou is my only strong SR, everyone who used to be at the bottom of my reads list has either redeemed themselves or I struggle to see them on a scumteam with Shirou. This is just a quick post for now but I do plan to review several slots with that in mind.

[numberQ]

Okay, I think it clicked for me. Even if I find a new SR besides Shirou, the sheer number of cop claims for N3 means limming before hearing from them is suboptimal, since we're so far ahead. It's a risk for little reward, in other words.

VOTE: No lim

[numberQ]

fua's GL/Tejate solve is wild. I'm not going to explicitly hold it against you because I did the same thing, but what's the point in limming GL today even if you think he's scum? Is there anything lost by seeing the N3 cop results before we start honing in? Honestly I feel this theory should have waited to come out until tomorrow.

[numberQ]

I'm still not 100% sure of the benefit of pools over consensus chaining cops to targets tbh

[numberQ]

Playing a bit of catch up since work buried me most of the day.

implo's plan is actually pretty good I think, I tried looking at it from various scum!X angles and I think even if one of the claimed N3 cops is in fact scum, this gives them very little room to maneuver.

What's the point of the pools though? Is there a reason not to chain cops to targets now? I think no matter what scum will probably be trying to hit cops instead of targets so I don't see widening the NK pool as a good reason, unless there's something I'm not seeing.

[numberQ]

also, I think no elimination is a grave mistake. And if you talk about how I had suggested no elimination yesterday, re:read my ISO because I already explained that before.

Please explain why it's mistake, because i see it as not bad move (exactly not bad, of course killing maf is better). Like, we will need to skip anyway, unless other doc will save someone (which is fairly unlikely).

Because it doesn’t narrow down the PoE at all and just lets mafia get a kill. We can skip later after we narrow down the PoE and cops get their results. I just don’t think there are any positives to letting mafia kill whoever they want.

wtf is this logic? Why would we skip AFTER we've narrowed down the PoE? The entire point of narrowing it down is so we can lim with greater accuracy. "letting mafia kill whoever they want" - you do realize there are 2 scum left, so even if we hit one today there's going to be a NK attempt tonight? And it'll be "whoever they want"? This entire argument makes absolutely no sense to me.

Honestly at this point gunning for a lim just feels like a scum claim to me. The mafia are in a bad position right now and desperate to even the odds. I know I advocated for a Shirou lim earlier today, but it's very clear to me now that scum need an elimination today more than town does, and thus I can only see scum motivation behind pushing so hard for an elimination.

[numberQ]

nQ, are you suggesting fua is scum? It's odd to me that you're expressing scrutiny at people pushing for a lim, but don't make any explicit comment about who looks worst from it. I would have thought Shirou being your main suspect opportunistically hopping onto my wagon would have received more of a direct call out

I don't think talking about my thoughts on fua today before the 3 cop results is prudent. I'm ready for the day to end and any "grandstanding" as you call it is because I don't know what the point of the day continuing is.

[numberQ]

VOTE: no elimination

if there's that much resistance to trying to get us an extra elimination which in a setup full of cops can literally be the difference between winning and losing, okay. Let's do no-lim then, but I think we'll regret it later.

this situation is getting kinda funny, I'm beginning to wonder what will be the reaction from my flip.

How is it "the difference between winning and losing"? The glut of cops tonight is the exact reason we should no lim.

[numberQ]

Good enough for me

[numberQ]

Okay, here's what I was thinking at the end of the day yesterday that I didn't want to bring up until cop results came in.

fua is scum who successfully pulled off a no kill gambit N1 to give themselves conf!town status. It was their actions near the end of D3 that pinged me enough to go back and think about this. The Tejate/GL solve was strange, and in hindsight I think they were setting themselves up to clear their buddy. This of course implicates Tejate, though I've mostly focused on fua when I looked back at the thread overnight. The Tejate read is purely by association at this point, since he's the one fua inno'd. I was also expecting Shirou to investigate GL to help clear it up more, but oh well. I think the theory still stands even without that result. Actually, the implo kill also implies the other scum is

not

GL, otherwise I feel they would have killed Shirou. Hmm

VOTE: fua

anyway I skimmed some of the thread just to check cop claims, but now I'm going to go actually read it.

[numberQ]

I agree that we're in scenario B here. Scum will ALWAYS claim in such a way that there's a 6:7 or 7:6 split between cops and docs, anything else is very suboptimal and it's not like that's some crazy mech epiphany that scum might not realize. With 6 claimed docs, 4 claimed cops, and redtea having never claimed - the remaining two slots are guaranteed to be claiming cop here.

[numberQ]

fua and Tejate being the only ones today to still be on the "let's lim Shirou" train from yesterday is really giving me confidence in my solve tbh. I don't think anyone else has been advocating for that, unless I missed something.

[numberQ]

So, I lit a fire under fua's ass for half the game, suspected redtea early, hard pushed redtea day 2 the moment it was even possible for me to do so in a situation where 1 scum man down early is a huge loss even if it's a dead slot? When I could have instead tried to push harder on implo, GL, Meg, which from your perspective are guaranteed town in this scenario?

And, on top of that, you also think that fua no-killed in the hopes that there was a night 1 doc? You think all of those things are true at the same time?

Meh. like I said, my read on you is purely by association at this point. If all those things you say you did are true, sure, there's a town spin to it. But I also don't really see any hard evidence that those interactions can't be S/S. fua is still alive and has been more or less hard cleared by most of the player list ever since their claim, so lighting a fire under their ass didn't really amount to anything, and was relatively low risk. Scum can, and by some schools of thought should, suspect their partners early on. And by day 2 any scum team could have easily seen redtea as a lost cause.

And yes, I do think fua no killed N1, but I don't think the entire gambit HAD to have a N1 doc. One of his buddies could have taken that up if AL hadn't claimed, and suddenly you have 2 conf!towns.

And furthermore, what earthly reason do I have to not stay on the lim Shirou train? There was no inno. He still looks like scum, the actions of previous days are not erased. His posts today have not convinced me that he's not, either.

Yeah, fair I guess. I don't have a specific reason that continuing to scumread Shirou is in itself scummy. I was more pointing out that you two were the only ones today that still wanted them limmed, which indicates some level of cohesion. And Shirou would be very, very easy mislim bait at this point considering they're literally saying it might be the right choice themselves.

[numberQ]

Let me make sure I have this right, I don't think it's quite clicking for me but Shirou/nQ both agreeing on it makes me feel there's something I am not grokking from the claimed cop PoV

redtea never claimed, so there are 12 possible claims

nQ and Shirou you are asserting that scum will always claim it to wind up 6:6, because otherwise if the claim distribution is 5:7 then they can be auto'd? I think that's the step I'm missing, why are we certain we can't wind up with a 5:7 claim breakdown here? isn't that the world where morph is outed (to me), assuming Enchant is scum?

I think I'm missing how from your PoV, 4 ~real~ cops and 6 ~real~ docs would mean an impossibility - why can't two of the (non-you) cops be lying?

The 6:6 breakdown is regardless of how many real roles there are. Since scum know the actual composition, I don't really see any world where the purposefully suboptimize by claiming outside the 6:7 split. And with redtea having never claimed, that's now a 6:6. So really redtea not claiming was probably the best thing he could have done for his team.

If there are 4 real cops and 6 real docs, then yeah, 2 cop claims have to be lying. I don't think that's the case based on what my current solve theory is, but speaking generally, the only choice for scum fake claims is to give as little information to town as possible. If we DO end up with a 5:7 split or something, then I guess scum are just fine throwing /shrug

[numberQ]

I'm confused as to what issue you have with me outside of not being killed N1? Do you think I'm working from a position of TMI where I know everyone's roles? Are you aware that a scum buddy claiming to have healed me would out both of us down the line when cops get to checking and confirmed townies start getting killed?

I mean the part about a buddy claiming to heal you was pure speculation anyway, since it didn't actually happen N1. My issue with you began with your Tejate/GL solve at the end of D3, which made me reexamine the events of N1, and has continued into today.

[numberQ]

Not sure what makes this a ridiculous play tho

[numberQ]

Also-- literally who should I have checked if not Tejate? I wasn't responsible for any part of the list that was made and I already explained why I didn't target implosion/Shirou.

Are you talking about 3198? Where your explanation is that you didn't want to risk your investigate landing on a NK? When under my theory you are deciding where the NK lands? imo Shirou would be the expected target here. Unless GL is scum, I'd have been shocked by scum killing Shirou.

Fua is town and anyone thinking otherwise should pour gasoline over themselves and light a match.

I don't have to be happy with their play to town read them. There's no way day two goes down the way it did with a fua nokill n1 gambit.

What about D2 makes you think this?

[numberQ]

NQ apparently also believes that I started the wagon on both of my scumbuddies and got Tejate to E-1/2 within a vote or two of elimination when he wasn't being suspected prior and was the first on the redtea wagon despite his alignment being up in the air and people like Shirou or Implo (Both townies according to this theory) defending him.

When exactly did you get Tejate to E-1/2? You only voted him twice and both times the wagons died before that point if I'm looking at the vote counts right. I also contest that scum wouldn't already be accounting for losing their lurker buddy at the time you voted redtea.

[numberQ]

What about D2 makes you think this?

Do a dual ISO of just Amazonians and Fua.

Just did this (for D2 at least) and that told me very little. You're getting more out of that ISO than I am if there's something in there. In fact, this post from AL stuck out to me, because in her second paragraph the surprise she mentions is completely alleviated if fua is scum. Because then of course scum don't want to muddy the waters.

This weekend got completely away from me. I’ve skimmed the posts from today, but I don’t really have much to comment on right this second. I’m gonna start my reread tonight until I fall asleep so I have a better context. I feel like I’ve had a bit of brain fog since coming back from vacation, so hopefully the reread will help with focus.

I’m a bit surprised that scum didn’t try to muddy the waters and claim a different protect or even the same. I really expected there to be a second doc claim so that we couldn’t mostly clear fua. (I think fuas clear, the mostly is just barring no kill shenanigans but I’m not sure anyone here plays that type of game.)

Anyway next couple days are somewhat busy for me. Gonna try to get rereading in but I probably won’t be posting that much. I’ll skim though so I’ll respond if you direct something to me.

[numberQ]

miseliminating fua right now would be how we lose the game basically. I feel we're close to a semi-auto depending on Meg/Ceph roles and their nights, but I need to think more so for now I'll shut up for a bit.

I guess I haven't really been following/understanding the logic that's been put forth about why there's a path to auto winning. Even after all the claims come out, there are going to be 2 fakes. How do Meg and Ceph help us sort out who those fakes are? Maybe this was already answered and it was in one of the posts my eyes glazed over, I'll try to look back at them.

[numberQ]

Well it was a mistake to check back in before bed. I read about halfway through your 4th truth bullet before I realized I wasn't retaining the information.

idk, I still just feel like it's fua/Tejate. That's what my gut is telling me. Though admittedly my gut was way off in my last two town games. But the two before that it was way on!

I'll try and give your plan a reread tomorrow

[numberQ]

This is just a prodge. Just had two ~14-16 hour work days in a row trying to crunch for a project deadline so I'm feeling very dead. Haven't read anything since my last post, sorry.

[numberQ]

I'm interested in what fua and morph think of all this mech shit. It makes my head hurt.

Caught up, and I think I resonate with this post the most. Looooots of Shirou posting in the pages I missed, and almost all of it was mech planning. And some of it was several posts in a row flip flopping on the mech planning, which made it even harder to read lol

But I think I get the plan after the last ~8 pages were filled with almost nothing but discussing it. We lim myself, Shirou, morph, and GL in some order, because there has to be scum in there? And that gives us enough confirmed flips to hunt down the last scum? Did I miss something?

The only part of this plan I don't like is that it assumes town!fua. I have not heard any reason that their solve at the end of D3 and then subsequent investigate claim is anything but scum motivated. In fact I like GL's posting about it because it brought up a good point about why Tejate was picked instead of Shirou. The only defense fua's given over that is that they wanted to confirm their solve, which... is a bad defense. The solve came completely out of left field and I'm postulating it was specifically devised just to gambit clear Tejate.

So, yeah. Clearly the fua wagon isn't going anywhere today. I do think morph is suboptimal in terms of confirming things, that would probably be myself actually. Though, I think somebody said (I forget who) that we can afford like 3 mislims before we're even in danger. So morph as a compromise isn't game throwing, at least. Idk though. I don't really think they're scum and I'm not sure what confirming their town flip will give us, tbh.

I won't cry when/if GL hammers later, but if someone can explain what we gain by morph going first in this plan, I'd love to hear it. Maybe it was stated in the past few pages and I just missed it.

[numberQ]

I find myself in a strange position because I absolutely see the logic in limming me to clear Ceph, but it feels weird to be okay with that lol

Why was Meg the kill? Leaving Ceph alive risked getting a result on Shirou (since that seemed to be the most widely agreed plan coming out of D4), so I guess scum were okay with that happening. Makes me think the scum!Shirou solve isn't right.

At first when I saw the nightkill I thought it was to try and frame me, due to Meg promising to investigate me. And I was ready to accuse fua of being behind that, but... them blasting GL out the gate instead of me does not fit that narrative.

[numberQ]

If you think GL is scum then why didn't you check him???? What changed in between now and your last read????????????????????/

I thought GL could be scum like I said, but I thought there was very little chance that he would let me live if he was scum.

Therefore, if I checked him and he was scum, I would most likely be sent to the dead thread before being able to announce my guilty.

If I wasn't sent to the dead thread, I was likely gonna get a confirmation he was town even though it would be kinda ~obvious~ he would be town if I lived...at least in most scenarios.

Therefore, I firmly believed GL was town and Morph was the scum in the doctors.

However, not only Morph flipped town, but NQ doesn't sound very much like scum today. It feels like they have almost no plan, no will to fight, and I know NQ unique possible partner is GL.

However GL is full of life! Doesn't feel like doomed scum at all.

From today posting I believe Enchant is really just likely town.

What's up with that then?

If it's GL/NQ, why is NQ so defeatist today when they should be trying to get either me or fua eliminated together with GL?

Maybe the answer is, NQ is town even though they should be almost confirmed scum to me under my assumptions yesterday. And that means by process of elimination that it needs to be you/GL since I know my alignment, and plan to verify it without doubt today.

How am I being defeatist? I can't keep refreshing the page to be 100% active in the conversation, doesn't mean anything for my opinion of the game.

---

Anyway, my thoughts aren't totally congealed yet but here are some just off the dome. This is scattered and mostly surface level, will probably be able to be more thorough later today after a meeting I have this afternoon.

My fua/Tejate solve was a paranoid delusion. The NK and then fua's posting today has convinced me of that.

Shirou's been pushing for a self-sacrifice over half the game now. I'm not sure the original reasoning for it being good for town is true anymore.

If fua's GL/Shirou solve is true, GL is heavily distancing. Which could be very possible in this gamestate for that team. However, I think I'd expect scum!GL to push for fua instead if his partner is Shirou. I dont currently have a concrete reason for this beyond my impression of GL's opinion towards fua from the end of the previous day. Just seems like that'd be an out besides bussing your partner this hard when scum is already in a precarious state.

[numberQ]

So why is Enchant consensus town? I vaguely feel the same way but when I stop and think I'm not actually sure why, maybe I'm just going with everyone else's flow. An ISO would probably give me an answer but people seem pretty confident about it so someone must have a reason for thinking so. I'm sure that reason has been stated, but day 5 conversation has been fast and dense so far.

[numberQ]

Okay, you gave a reason for a Ydrasse TR. Nothing specific about Enchant though, who makes up the bulk of that slot's activity. From what I can see jumping back a few pages here and there, there's a lot of people saying Enchant is obvtown and then other people just kind of agreeing with that assessment. If we follow Shirou's plan, Enchant being town is the one assumption that could ruin things if it's wrong, so it's worth examining.

[numberQ]

^ that was to fua's post before Tejate just now

[numberQ]

I need to wrap my head around this. There's a lot of plan discussion flying around and it keeps changing, and I haven't been able to stay current in the conversation. So here's what I think people are saying, please correct if wrong.

Plan 1

Lim me (numberQ).

Ceph investigates fua.

Lim fua on a guilty, GL on inno.

If fua/GL is a mislim, we're at 3p ELo out of [fua/GL], Shirou, Tejate, Enchant, and Ceph (minus 2 nightkills).
Otherwise, we have one more mislim to hit the last scum.

Plan 2

Lim Shirou.

Ceph investigates fua or GL.

On a guilty result, we get an obvious lim.
Innocent result: inno!fua means lim GL. inno!GL means lim... fua? me? Unclear.

? from here

Plan 2 is less complete than Plan 1 but in some ways that's preferable, to allow for flexible thinking as the days arrive. Plus, Plan 1 involves an immediate mislim and a stronger possibility fmpov of ELo in a very WIFOM-y gamestate. I do think we should just be trying to hit scum instead of banking on mech confirms, because of that ELo possibility.

The more I think about it the less I like me being the lim, and I was already iffy on it. Obviously this is partially from me already knowing my alignment (and Ceph's), but still. Am I looking at this wrong?

[numberQ]

I mean, I know you're being sarcastic but there are situations where I'd be okay letting myself die for pro-town reasons. I just think it's arguable whether this is such a situation.

[numberQ]

Shouldn't I be the one to decide what to do upon my flip though? I would be the confirmed town here, fua isn't strictly confirmed yet.

It's fine to decide what to do in a hypothetical scum flip on me, but can I get to decide what to do if we flip town?

Ceph checking GL is kind of a really bad idea. If they claim a guilty you'll have literally almost 0 new info. If I flip town it should naturally be GL vs NQ (and consequentially Ceph). scum!Ceph could claim a guilty there and sit on it for the rest of the game, you would have no way to confirm it without risking losing the game.

Honestly, on a town flip on me, I believe Ceph checking NQ isn't a bad idea. Either that or fua, since if they claim a guilty on fua it's a Fua vs Ceph/NQ dayphase, which is risky to them so they may think twice before faking a guilty there if they are scum.

Why is Ceph checking me not a bad idea? Feels like a waste.

And I'm not convinced by this post that checking GL is a bad idea. It's weird to frame a guilty result as 0 new info, because it's a guaranteed scum kill. Seems pretty valuable to me.

[numberQ]

I still think my lim here is not useful but I'm prepared to accept I only think that because I know I'm town. Hopefully confirming Ceph is as helpful as you all think it is.

fua's town.

No one ever gave a solid answer as to why Enchant is town but sure, he can be town. Tejate's right that if he's not we've lost.

Out of Tejate/Shirou/GL, I don't know. I think it's Shirou and someone. Overall I feel GL has played more townish, so I guess Tejate. But the pairings keep running circles in my head so meh. This is as far as my brain power goes.

[numberQ]

Oh yeah, he investigated you didn't he. I forgot lol

[numberQ]

Sorry, *they

[numberQ]

Maybe it

is

fua/Tejate and fua not pursuing me today was an attempt to pocket

More likely I do think it's {Shirou/GL}, the latter through PoE.

[numberQ]

I still think my lim here is not useful but I'm prepared to accept I only think that because I know I'm town. Hopefully confirming Ceph is as helpful as you all think it is.

fua's town.

No one ever gave a solid answer as to why Enchant is town but sure, he can be town. Tejate's right that if he's not we've lost.

Out of Tejate/Shirou/GL, I don't know. I think it's Shirou and someone. Overall I feel GL has played more townish, so I guess Tejate. But the pairings keep running circles in my head so meh. This is as far as my brain power goes.

I did give you the answer though...

Yeah and I responded saying I wasn't satisfied with the answer: viewtopic.php?p=13262364#p13262364

[numberQ]

Why are you dead tonight Tejate?

[numberQ]

I still think my lim here is not useful but I'm prepared to accept I only think that because I know I'm town. Hopefully confirming Ceph is as helpful as you all think it is.

fua's town.

No one ever gave a solid answer as to why Enchant is town but sure, he can be town. Tejate's right that if he's not we've lost.

Out of Tejate/Shirou/GL, I don't know. I think it's Shirou and someone. Overall I feel GL has played more townish, so I guess Tejate. But the pairings keep running circles in my head so meh. This is as far as my brain power goes.

I did give you the answer though...

Yeah and I responded saying I wasn't satisfied with the answer: viewtopic.php?p=13262364#p13262364

Oh, I didn't see this. Yeah, that's not a good argument. "You TR Ydrasse but you don't have any reason to TR Enchant." doesn't really make sense. Or at least that's how your answer comes off to me unless you just want to debate semantics. I have a stronger TR on Enchant based on circumstances of the replace in as well as his play (I've played multiple town games with him) than anyone except Tejate and that's staying unless you flip town.

I mentioned that Enchant makes up the bulk of the slot's content, which is why a single reason to TR Ydrasse did not satisfy me as to why Enchant is town. And saying that you townread someone because of the circumstances of their play is... also not a good argument. I'll accept that YOU townread him because you have seen his scum game, but for ME, that's not a satisfying answer.

---

@Tejate: Hmm. Not sure I really agree with that but it's probably not a good idea to talk about who's going to get nightkilled before it happens without a good reason to.

[numberQ]

WHEW

That was rough. The D2 cop claim gambit was because we felt we needed something bold to overcome the doc protect N1. I think it took us pretty far, though yeah, it did end up making it so my death made sense from a purely mechanical perspective. Which is... really not a great feeling as scum.

gg town, and thanks for modding catboi!

[numberQ]

Also, hope this isn't a faux pas, but I thought this was an excellent playerlist so I want to shamelessly plug a game I have in the open queue right now. It's a setup of my own devising, and there's less than a week left before it gets kicked. No pressure but if you think the setup looks interesting, feel free to sign up!

viewtopic.php?f=4&t=86437&p=13234907#p13234907

[numberQ]

Just mountainous straight up, 9:2. The dance games are more of a seasonal thing, still too soon since the last one

Isn't the EV of 9:2 Mountainous, 35.2% for Town and 64.8% for scum?

I believe it, but that's kind of the fun part about mountainous right? You don't have any mech to really fall back on. The odds are not in your favor if you're bad at reading people.

Also nQ, if it makes you feel any better if your death didn't make so much sense from a mechanical standpoint I would have just hard pushed to turbolim Shirou then and there. Also, sure, I'm game if it doesn't fill by the time I'm done typing.

Shirou dying D5 was probably our last hope, so it does make me feel slightly better lol

[numberQ]

Also, hope this isn't a faux pas, but I thought this was an excellent playerlist so I want to shamelessly plug a game I have in the open queue right now. It's a setup of my own devising, and there's less than a week left before it gets kicked. No pressure but if you think the setup looks interesting, feel free to sign up!

viewtopic.php?f=4&t=86437&p=13234907#p13234907

I encourage shameless advertisig especially since I had to fight to get this one to fill. Unfortunately I'm taking a break from signing up for new games for a while or I'd return the favor.

No worries! I'm probably taking a break from playing as well for a bit. I can only handle so much mafia in a row.