Open 842: Diffusion of Power [Postgame]

[numberQ]

Playing a bit of catch up since work buried me most of the day.

implo's plan is actually pretty good I think, I tried looking at it from various scum!X angles and I think even if one of the claimed N3 cops is in fact scum, this gives them very little room to maneuver.

What's the point of the pools though? Is there a reason not to chain cops to targets now? I think no matter what scum will probably be trying to hit cops instead of targets so I don't see widening the NK pool as a good reason, unless there's something I'm not seeing.

[implosion]

<ultimasnip>
Shirou: Enchant/fua/GuiltyLion
fua: implosion/Meg/morph
implosion: numberQ/Shirou/Tejate
<gigasnip>

Regarding this, can I also add that I don't think a Shirou check is that valuable at this point, but if we're going to include him in the pool could we maybe let fua have it? I'm still entertaining redtea/Shirou/implo, so I'd rather not have my second biggest scumread check my biggest scumread thanks.

To be clear regarding this and other comments, these groups were literally I listed the player list in alphabetical order and then picked people to put in front of each trio such that Shirou got GL and I didn't get myself <_> was not intended to be a final list or even an actual suggestion.

Here's a real suggestion:

Shirou: GL/Meg
fua: implosion/Shirou/Tejate
implosion: morph/numberQ/Enchant

This is based on a few things: trying to accommodate requests that i saw/remember, removing fua, giving tejate to fua specifically because Tejate is supposed to be protecting fua (so if tejate is scum and chooses to shoot fua, we won't have a wasted investigation on confscum-tejate), and generally I think giving everyone multiple targets that are reasonable (Shirou is probably picking GL but meg is also a reasonable target, fua has the other two cop claims which are riskier and tejate as a "safer" option, i have morph as the "obvious" option but also nQ is a reasonable choice to create a chain of inno results and Enchant I probably won't target but am leaving in the list out of principal)

This is also assuming no-lim. If we were limming morph I'd say to use the above lists but removing morph, and swapping Enchant/Shirou or Enchant/Tejate (both of which violate one of these minor maxims).

[implosion]

Might be better to swap Meg/nQ from those lists too, actually. I have no strong opinions though as long as everyone's on the same page about what version we use.

[fua]

put it like this, do you want the check before we get more info, or after

Daylimming gives info.

[fua]

Implo, I would not recommend checking Enchant. I would go so far as to say just remove him from the list.

I think Ceph may have noticed the same thing I did but I’m not entirely sure.

[MegAzumarill]

I don't want a world where shirou can fake a guilty on Me
Don't wanna 1f1 with the scummiest scum

[implosion]

Sure. I also think it's best to swap nQ/Meg. So how does this look:

Shirou: GL/numberQ
fua: implosion/Shirou/Tejate
implosion: morph/Meg

[numberQ]

also, I hadn't gone back and reread the very first page or so at daystart, but for the record

I was ready to vote morph from fua's claim but now I'm hesitant. Here are the possibilities:

1) Town!fua had a real guilty on scum!morph. No need for further analysis.

2) Town!fua faked a guilty on morph (town or scum, doesn't matter for this analysis). I guess fua might do this to get more out of his 1-shot investigate. He's 100% confident on his morph scumread but wants to get a real result someone else. This is an Incredibly Bad Idea™, and if this is what's happening then fua should absolutely come clean.

3) Scum!fua faked a guilty on town!morph. This means the mafia are willing to trade just to take out morph. Seems unlikely? That means they're purposefully leaving a single partner to take out 6 slots, when there's still at least 1 more doctor and 3 more cops that haven't acted yet. Potentially 3 doctors or 5 cops, if I'm counting right.

I dunno. I think if morph and Enchant hadn't been skeptical I probably would have just blindly followed the cop. Actually if it had been just morph, I probably still would have voted because I'd see it as caught scum throwing out a hail mary. It just seems very unlikely to me that a real cop would lie about their result, but apparently it's happened before with Wake88.

THIS is the kind of post I would suspect comes from scum if you are town and scum knows it was a fake guilty

very over-explainy, seems to want to project genuinely evaluating all the options, all the while hedgey with a certain self-consciousness "It just seems very unlikely to me that a real cop would lie about their result, but apparently it's happened before"

fwiw I do quite often like to break things down into possibilities and evaluate the options.

morph no thoughts on that numberQ post I called out? if you really are town then that looks to me like someone who knows it

It's something I have thought about, but there are two concerns I have about reading that post the way you are.

- it kinda fits with his posting style throughout this game.
- IMO this isn't the day to start tearing into n1 results claims. Though, it's less likely to cause a shit storm fake-claiming an inno result on town or fellow scum than faking-claiming a guilty result on town.

He's right about our alignment and aside from PA, people reading us correctly this game hasn't been all that common. Maybe that's a worrisome sign. BUT. He came back with an inno on day 2 on a player he had a strong scumread of during day 1. And Ceph was another player who wasn't picking up a bunch of townreads on day 1, iirc.

Not sure what you mean by I'm right about your alignment. iirc I haven't talked about your slot in quite a while and it was more null than anything when I did. The past in game day or two I've been trying to sort out what I think about your slot because it feels like people are seeing scumtells that I'm not picking up on, which always frustrates me.

[MegAzumarill]

thumbs up

[numberQ]

Sure. I also think it's best to swap nQ/Meg. So how does this look:

Shirou: GL/numberQ
fua: implosion/Shirou/Tejate
implosion: morph/Meg

Hmm, I almost feel like I shouldn't be in the Shirou pool if people are uncertain about my alignment. Because A) seems unlikely Shirou cops anyone but GL, and B) if Shirou is scum that'll confirm nothing.

[Tejate Raichu]

Sure. I also think it's best to swap nQ/Meg. So how does this look:

Shirou: GL/numberQ
fua: implosion/Shirou/Tejate
implosion: morph/Meg

Your terms are acceptable.

[Tejate Raichu]

Actually yeah, I think it's best if we just assume Shirou is leashed to GL. Maybe give yourself nQ?

[Enchant]

I don't want a world where shirou can fake a guilty on Me
Don't wanna 1f1 with the scummiest scum

I don't understand why

Like even if she fakequilty, most of lobby pretty sceptical to her at best. It's like ez kill on mafia from your perspective.
Why fear

[MegAzumarill]

I don't want a world where shirou can fake a guilty on Me
Don't wanna 1f1 with the scummiest scum

I don't understand why

Like even if she fakequilty, most of lobby pretty sceptical to her at best. It's like ez kill on mafia from your perspective.
Why fear

I'd prefer to 1f1 with scum!fua or scum!implo
I think both are town but if ones not I'll gladly trade that slot

[Shirou]

Sure. I also think it's best to swap nQ/Meg. So how does this look:

Shirou: GL/numberQ
fua: implosion/Shirou/Tejate
implosion: morph/Meg

fine by me

also, we're probably eliminating morph so fua probably should get my slot

[GuiltyLion]

I'm not really in favor of the morph elim anymore, as I said yesterday I think their suspicion of me is townie in execution/delivery and if they are scum I am not worried about them endgaming

I think if we lim today numberQ would be better - I didn't get around to ISOing/casing yet, but even by virtue of the fact that he's already claimed and already used his power it makes him better from a mech perspective.

[numberQ]

Obviously I'm against that in principle. Though admittedly even from my perspective of knowing my alignment, there's some limited +town utility in my flip because it'll hard confirm one or two other slots, i.e. Ceph and whatever info can be gleaned from his investigate or protect.

At this point Shirou is my only strong SR, everyone who used to be at the bottom of my reads list has either redeemed themselves or I struggle to see them on a scumteam with Shirou. This is just a quick post for now but I do plan to review several slots with that in mind.

[Tejate Raichu]

I know it's about as exciting as checking in poker, but I'm still in favor of no-elim.

[morph the cat]

It's been a really busy day. I have some stuff I want to do, but I dunno if I get to it tonight.

I'm somewhat perplexed that one of my scumreads wants to no elim and one of them expects me to be today's elim.

And I'm thinking on which of those outcomes helps scum the most or hurts scum the least given the big plan. I'm not sure I'll come to a good answer.

[Shirou]

hm, yawn

nothing interesting since I last posted

kinda surprised GL is arguing for a NQ elimination rather than morph though

[MegAzumarill]

UNVOTE:
Fan of no elim i think

[Cephrir]

VOTE: no elim

not my preference, but it doesn't appear i have an choice

[morph the cat]

To me, your stance on numbers looks like you're setting up to pivot on him after my flip.

this though, you're not wrong! because if you are town then I think that makes numberQ likely scum, and so if you flip town then yeah, I would pivot to him.

I'd kinda like for you to expand on why town-us leads to scum-numberQ, but if we're no limming it should probably wait.

[catboi]

ヾ(･ω･｡)ｼ

[catboi]

.+:｡(ﾉ･ω･)ﾉﾞ