In post 3307, GuiltyLion wrote:Let me make sure I have this right, I don't think it's quite clicking for me but Shirou/nQ both agreeing on it makes me feel there's something I am not grokking from the claimed cop PoV
redtea never claimed, so there are 12 possible claims
nQ and Shirou you are asserting that scum will always claim it to wind up 6:6, because otherwise if the claim distribution is 5:7 then they can be auto'd? I think that's the step I'm missing, why are we certain we can't wind up with a 5:7 claim breakdown here? isn't that the world where morph is outed (to me), assuming Enchant is scum?
I think I'm missing how from your PoV, 4 ~real~ cops and 6 ~real~ docs would mean an impossibility - why can't two of the (non-you) cops be lying?
Okay from the start:
Redtea never claimed, you're right about that, usually scum aims for a 7:6 claim distribution (because there's a minimum/maximum of 4 ~ 6 roles, therefore if they did a 8:5, everyone would know that they simply should purely eliminate either in the doctors or in cops, whoever had 8 claims on it). However since redtea was already dead they likely aimed for 6:6, which doesn't tell us any obvious information about where scum is from a first look.
The reason that in the given scenario with the assumptions there can't be two cops lying, is that those are the cop claims in that scenario:
Shirou
NQ
Fua
Implo
Meg
Ceph
To me Meg is town, implo is already flipped, so there is:
NQ
Fua
Ceph
Within the initial assumptions, only NQ can be scum there, even if Ceph were to be scum, it would be shown when we tried to solve the remaining doctors with eliminations/cop shot. It would be kinda be auto as long as Fua is town, and...isn't that what we believe anyway if we're eliminating inside our current pool? The unique thing doing this stuff would do is to show us clearly if we're wrong or not on Fua for example, it would still be auto for most teams in that pool however...
I think I misspoke something in my excitement now that I cooled off a bit. I'm thinking about it right now.