Open 842: Diffusion of Power [Postgame]

[Tejate Raichu]

Meh. like I said, my read on you is purely by association at this point. If all those things you say you did are true, sure, there's a town spin to it. But I also don't really see any hard evidence that those interactions can't be S/S. fua is still alive and has been more or less hard cleared by most of the player list ever since their claim, so lighting a fire under their ass didn't really amount to anything, and was relatively low risk. Scum can, and by some schools of thought should, suspect their partners early on. And by day 2 any scum team could have easily seen redtea as a lost cause.

First point, fair enough, disagreement is not necessarily AI. And yes, if I was scum I would agree that redtea is a lost cause slot. But I wouldn't really be rushing to bus them either. As I stated in an earlier post, ignoring specific contexts it is almost always better to get a scum out earlier than later. redtea even just surviving up to day 3, even if everyone knows they're scum, is worse for town than eliminating them day 1 or 2. Had that happened, town would be in a far worse position than we actually were in D3. Thus, it would be insane to bus in a setup with this many cops, at a point where I am already under heavy suspicion and am likely to get checked. There is only one way your argument makes sense beyond the associative: I was doing a soft bus and wasn't actually intending to get redtea elim'd, but instead throwing shade on them when my own slot seemed like a cost cause to anti-scum spew. I think you will find this is not the case.

And yes, I do think fua no killed N1, but I don't think the entire gambit HAD to have a N1 doc. One of his buddies could have taken that up if AL hadn't claimed, and suddenly you have 2 conf!towns.

Actually, interesting point. It would have been risky, but no NK is inherently risky. I didn't consider that.

[Cephrir]

VOTE: NQ

i guess my thought is, who is his partner here such that he has to attempt this ridiculous play? they'd have to be locked out, right?

I literally can't see a town motivation behind his line of thought at all. Zero attempt to actually scumhunt and instead basing an entire read off of WIFOM. Like. Is it impossible to believe that a doctor saved a cop claim?

it's possible that i'm skimming today and assumed there was another reason in there somewhere

[fua]

Also-- literally who should I have checked if not Tejate? I wasn't responsible for any part of the list that was made and I already explained why I didn't target implosion/Shirou.

[fua]

NQ apparently also believes that I started the wagon on both of my scumbuddies and got Tejate to E-1/2 within a vote or two of elimination when he wasn't being suspected prior and was the first on the redtea wagon despite his alignment being up in the air and people like Shirou or Implo (Both townies according to this theory) defending him.

[fua]

Them*, sorry.

[fua]

Wow, that sentence is incomprehensible. Hopefully it gets the point across anyway.

[morph the cat]

Fua is town and anyone thinking otherwise should pour gasoline over themselves and light a match.

I don't have to be happy with their play to town read them. There's no way day two goes down the way it did with a fua nokill n1 gambit.

[Tejate Raichu]

Fua is town and anyone thinking otherwise should pour gasoline over themselves and light a match.

I don't have to be happy with their play to town read them. There's no way day two goes down the way it did with a fua nokill n1 gambit.

Sadly, there are no arsonists in this setup.

[morph the cat]

fua and Tejate being the only ones today to still be on the "let's lim Shirou" train from yesterday is really giving me confidence in my solve tbh. I don't think anyone else has been advocating for that, unless I missed something.

I mean if you gave me a gun with one bullet right now things wouldn't be looking great for Shirou.

This but slightly less confidently.

[numberQ]

Also-- literally who should I have checked if not Tejate? I wasn't responsible for any part of the list that was made and I already explained why I didn't target implosion/Shirou.

Are you talking about 3198? Where your explanation is that you didn't want to risk your investigate landing on a NK? When under my theory you are deciding where the NK lands? imo Shirou would be the expected target here. Unless GL is scum, I'd have been shocked by scum killing Shirou.

Fua is town and anyone thinking otherwise should pour gasoline over themselves and light a match.

I don't have to be happy with their play to town read them. There's no way day two goes down the way it did with a fua nokill n1 gambit.

What about D2 makes you think this?

[Shirou]

Let me make sure I have this right, I don't think it's quite clicking for me but Shirou/nQ both agreeing on it makes me feel there's something I am not grokking from the claimed cop PoV

redtea never claimed, so there are 12 possible claims

nQ and Shirou you are asserting that scum will always claim it to wind up 6:6, because otherwise if the claim distribution is 5:7 then they can be auto'd? I think that's the step I'm missing, why are we certain we can't wind up with a 5:7 claim breakdown here? isn't that the world where morph is outed (to me), assuming Enchant is scum?

I think I'm missing how from your PoV, 4 ~real~ cops and 6 ~real~ docs would mean an impossibility - why can't two of the (non-you) cops be lying?

Okay from the start:

Redtea never claimed, you're right about that, usually scum aims for a 7:6 claim distribution (because there's a minimum/maximum of 4 ~ 6 roles, therefore if they did a 8:5, everyone would know that they simply should purely eliminate either in the doctors or in cops, whoever had 8 claims on it). However since redtea was already dead they likely aimed for 6:6, which doesn't tell us any obvious information about where scum is from a first look.

The reason that in the given scenario with the assumptions there can't be two cops lying, is that those are the cop claims in that scenario:

Shirou
NQ
Fua
Implo
Meg
Ceph

To me Meg is town, implo is already flipped, so there is:

NQ
Fua
Ceph

Within the initial assumptions, only NQ can be scum there, even if Ceph were to be scum, it would be shown when we tried to solve the remaining doctors with eliminations/cop shot. It would be kinda be auto as long as Fua is town, and...isn't that what we believe anyway if we're eliminating inside our current pool? The unique thing doing this stuff would do is to show us clearly if we're wrong or not on Fua for example, it would still be auto for most teams in that pool however...

I think I misspoke something in my excitement now that I cooled off a bit. I'm thinking about it right now.

[Shirou]

I said that this must be scenario B but I may have confused what scenario B was. Huh...wait a bit actually.

[morph the cat]

What about D2 makes you think this?

Do a dual ISO of just Amazonians and Fua.

[morph the cat]

Shirou, it feels like you had something on your phone that you don't want your SO seeing so you keep spamming the convo to get stuff out of being visible on screen.

So much noise.

For the love of Arceus, if you're town, spoiler tag that shit and draft it together in one well laid out post instead of word vomiting it over five hundred posts. If you're scum, uh, keep doing what you're doing I guess that's cool?

[numberQ]

NQ apparently also believes that I started the wagon on both of my scumbuddies and got Tejate to E-1/2 within a vote or two of elimination when he wasn't being suspected prior and was the first on the redtea wagon despite his alignment being up in the air and people like Shirou or Implo (Both townies according to this theory) defending him.

When exactly did you get Tejate to E-1/2? You only voted him twice and both times the wagons died before that point if I'm looking at the vote counts right. I also contest that scum wouldn't already be accounting for losing their lurker buddy at the time you voted redtea.

[Shirou]

Shirou, it feels like you had something on your phone that you don't want your SO seeing so you keep spamming the convo to get stuff out of being visible on screen.

So much noise.

For the love of Arceus, if you're town, spoiler tag that shit and draft it together in one well laid out post instead of word vomiting it over five hundred posts. If you're scum, uh, keep doing what you're doing I guess that's cool?

?

I literally only did 5 or so posts explaining it and the rest is all either commentary about it or talking to other people about it though?

but uh, okay, I'll try to think more before speaking again I suppose

[numberQ]

What about D2 makes you think this?

Do a dual ISO of just Amazonians and Fua.

Just did this (for D2 at least) and that told me very little. You're getting more out of that ISO than I am if there's something in there. In fact, this post from AL stuck out to me, because in her second paragraph the surprise she mentions is completely alleviated if fua is scum. Because then of course scum don't want to muddy the waters.

This weekend got completely away from me. I’ve skimmed the posts from today, but I don’t really have much to comment on right this second. I’m gonna start my reread tonight until I fall asleep so I have a better context. I feel like I’ve had a bit of brain fog since coming back from vacation, so hopefully the reread will help with focus.

I’m a bit surprised that scum didn’t try to muddy the waters and claim a different protect or even the same. I really expected there to be a second doc claim so that we couldn’t mostly clear fua. (I think fuas clear, the mostly is just barring no kill shenanigans but I’m not sure anyone here plays that type of game.)

Anyway next couple days are somewhat busy for me. Gonna try to get rereading in but I probably won’t be posting that much. I’ll skim though so I’ll respond if you direct something to me.

[Shirou]

okay before shutting up and thinking more to do a more concise final post as requested, I'll just say this:

on hindsight it can either be scenario B or C as I see it right now, I actually misspoke and confused scenario B and C, I initially thought there Meg/Ceph would be either doc/cop or cop/doc due to me wrongly assuming that if both were cop, it would instantly mean I had to be scum with NQ, which isn't true.

It's possible for this to be cop/cop and what made me realize was GL talking about it. What I replied to him is still right to me, but I wondered why he was assuming there would be 6 claimed cops, and for some reason I ended up thinking they couldn't be both cops even if in my initial post I said it right: that even if both were cops, the pool would be wider than Shirou/NQ.

Hmm. Thanks for helping me realize this GL, let me think about this more.

Sorry I guess. I'll revise it.

[Enchant]

Actually Shirou made me remember something. Let me quote it.

[Shirou]

and uh

I don't think we should ever start off voting Fua NQ.

I'm a bit paranoid but I don't think it's good mech play or reasonable to start voting fua here ever.

I'm only talking about scum!fua mostly in hypothetical, because eventually depending on the role distribution, it may become confirmed that fua is scum based on our combined alignments, but uh, that's a hypothetical for later.

[Shirou]

miseliminating fua right now would be how we lose the game basically. I feel we're close to a semi-auto depending on Meg/Ceph roles and their nights, but I need to think more so for now I'll shut up for a bit.

[Enchant]

Whops sorry, no, i reread and realised it's actually valid point.

[Enchant]

miseliminating fua right now would be how we lose the game basically. I feel we're close to a semi-auto depending on Meg/Ceph roles and their nights, but I need to think more so for now I'll shut up for a bit.

https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?ti ... robability

[numberQ]

miseliminating fua right now would be how we lose the game basically. I feel we're close to a semi-auto depending on Meg/Ceph roles and their nights, but I need to think more so for now I'll shut up for a bit.

I guess I haven't really been following/understanding the logic that's been put forth about why there's a path to auto winning. Even after all the claims come out, there are going to be 2 fakes. How do Meg and Ceph help us sort out who those fakes are? Maybe this was already answered and it was in one of the posts my eyes glazed over, I'll try to look back at them.

[Enchant]

I am bad with tags.

I am not whiteknighting but i will stab anyone who attack Fua, with my white sword.

... Really. Just cease.