Mafia Invictus Redux [Game Over]

[Rhyme and Reason]

Because

(1) I find them highly entertaining

and (2) they haven’t done anything I really consider to be scummy thus far

Admittedly mostly (1) but without having a solid SR there for something they’ve actually done, I’m not getting behind the lim

~Rhyme

[gorilla]

You should probably actually read that post to see what I'm quoting.

[VP Baltar]

Ergo, unless I am completely wrong about that being a soft, in which case I expect Mala to correct me immediately, RR is as conftown

Just want to say, I think you're mayne taking this further than is reliable. There is probably an argument to be made that mala is town because of this, but I don't get the sense from reading between the lines that this is clearing info on RR. Would like that on record so there are not bad assumptions being made later in the game.

Happy to be proven wrong, but we should not assume clears on people unless we have explicit reason to believe so.

[gorilla]

Game Day 1 There were several people commenting that they thought Dunn was town and I didn't think voting them would actually be helpful at all, esp. considering that you stayed a major wagon until the last 2 real-life days or so if I remember correctly, and I had a stronger scumread on you than him. I'll be happy to vote him now though, even if I don't get what changed for other people from yesterday to today on him he is still a pretty good vote imo.
VOTE: Dunn

I thought he started the game fine, I re-evaluated based on the NK and decided we should be giving more scrutiny to people who went under the radar yesterday, and he fit the bill.

nah i like my gamma vote much more
why would i jump on the dunn wagon when i have all i need right here?

might eventually depending on if dunn seems scummier than gamma but like
gamma > dunn rn imo

I find it basically completely baffling that anyone, on holistic view of their play, could think gammagooey to be a better wagon than dunn right now. Although his posting has been less frequent than some, Gammagooey has been trying to generate some level of town cohesion and making fairly decent analysis. Dunn has been lazily sniping from the sidelines and only came alive to OMGUS me. The fact that it's nearly impossible to get attention to Dunn when he's said basically nothing of value is telling.

(there's some slight worry that a lot of the people I'm townreading are townreading me. I'm wary of scum trying to buddy up to me, but I don't think that's always the case and I don't want to refuse to try to work ith anyone out of paranoia)

I mean, this is pretty much a non-case:

Spoiler:

@Marci - since you're voting me how do you feel about my not-you reads? Or my votes yesterday after it become clear that you weren't going to get elim'd that game day? Do you think I'm more likely to be scum given the flips, and/or that anyone else is more likely to be town b/c of them?

i think ur playing it safe with ur reads, enchant, dwlee, lavar were ur votes other than me, and all people who aren't making too much noise in the thread

I personally feel like if VPB is scum it isn't because of the reasons Fey+fire are bringing up about picking fights and calling fire's push ridiculous. I think he's being reasonable in his responses and the cheekiness/pushiness/whatever you want to call it is just VPB being VPB. Like I don't think I'm actually good at reading VPB until a couple flips happen and I can see where he was pushing and when/why, but I've played with VPB in enough games over the last decade to get a decent understanding of his posting personality at least.

this reads a bit like ur trying to buddy buddy vip balter.

also also would like to hear more from LLD & Mala before deadline, but I get that they have RL circumstances to deal with atm so they do not get placed in the category with Dunn+Enchant of "would happily throw them off an quickly moving airship"

this seems kinda fake imo since i didnt see u really try to follow up w it?

-Don't reeeeally get why Dunn's coming up now when I think he would have been imo a better counterwagon to Lavar than Dwlee was yesterday but whatever

i think this is pretty convient of u to say, as u didnt really push overly hard in dunns direction, i feel like u were more focused on the bandwagons.

its pretty clear imo that ur just hopping from easy wagon to easy wagon

- -

VOTE: gammagooey

?

hes stinky imo

Your points for him being scum are "hopping to easy wagons" and "stinky". This does not really look like a meaningful read.

[gorilla]

Ergo, unless I am completely wrong about that being a soft, in which case I expect Mala to correct me immediately, RR is as conftown

Just want to say, I think you're mayne taking this further than is reliable. There is probably an argument to be made that mala is town because of this, but I don't get the sense from reading between the lines that this is clearing info on RR. Would like that on record so there are not bad assumptions being made later in the game.

Happy to be proven wrong, but we should not assume clears on people unless we have explicit reason to believe so.

You will probably get guff for this, but I agree. If we can get multiple clears on day 2 in combination with the invictus mechanic, then the game probably shouldn't have passed review (and no, that's not scum salt).

[gorilla]

VOTE: gorilla

started okay, mostly fell off, vote on lavar kind of bad, not a lot of scumhunting.

Don't do this cheeky garbage, if you really think gorilla is scum then make a decent argument for it

gorilla was my strongest town read yesterday and I still strongly think that he's town, he's been active in sharing reads/opinions and in trying push scumreads/wagons yesterday until deadline came up, and his reaction to VPB felt VERY don't-give-a-shit-town to me. His recent responses to Meuh reinforce that point even more.

I believe that gorilla is guilty of what they are accusing others of.

I think that their reaction to pressure felt over-defensive and made me want to vote them more. Them doubling down on their vote on me when they had little reason to and ignoring presented evidence to the contrary in reaction to my vote by saying they were "still fairly sure I was scum" was scummy.

He has not been as active in sharing reads/opinions as you make out here, and I will point out that they do seem to care a lot when they are being voted here.

I think you're telling on yourself a bit here. The way you've reacted to me voting you is to push back against me in an over the top and childish manner. I think you're upset at being called out and are making things up about me to try to make me look bad. Non of your defense is remotely compelling in any way, you posted some boring graph. I have been more than forthright in explaining the reasons for my views on the game and am continuing to try to work to put things together.

Again, I explicitly do not care if I die to elimination or invictus this game. I get the sense you very much do.

[Rhyme and Reason]

Oh wow lol

Mostly because I didn’t like your reaction to being wagoned, and I haven’t seen anything from you yet that shouted town at me

~Rhyme

[Val89]

we should not assume clears on people unless we have explicit reason to believe so.

Yeah. I have one though:

This, after Mala does not include RR at all in her reads list going into N1:

R&R is the one who never voted besides me, however, they are town.

Both RR & I aren’t scum. Time will tell~

(In response to Kovu voting RR)

No bad.

*squirts water bottle*

Honestly, I can't understand what people were thinking who suggest Mala was softing

something

, but that something wasn't the knowledge of RR's alignment as town.

Personally, I think this has been telegraphed enough that Mala might as well say the words 'RandR are clear' and avoid any such doubts and the reason I say I expect Mala to correct me if I was wrong now is that I am absolutely treating both those slots as clear for at least today, and if I am not corrected I would take any future walk back in the vein of "oh no, I just felt really strongly about RR being town" as a scum claim.

I also think that even if this a play by a scum!Mala, she wouldn't pick a scum buddy here, so RR is town either way. The only RR can be scum is if a) town!mala was not softing a clear on RR, and the obvious +town thing to do here is to say "Val, you are barking up the wrong tree", as I've invited her to do, or b) scum!mala has painted a target on scum!RRs back, and if in (in my opinion) the very unlikely case Mala chose to do that when there was little to zero pressure on her slot, I'm not going to be sad about scum outting a buddy for free.

[VP Baltar]

That's a lot of bad assumptions in one post. I also feel like you're info fishing a bit and I don't like it. Mala should hard clear if that's the case, but if not, we should probably just leave this for a later game discussion, imo.

[Rhyme and Reason]

Except this entire theory is based on LLD having a single vote on Dwlee. It's literally the only thing. I don't see what the value is entertaining poorly reasoned theories and even promulgating those ideas. What is the purpose instead of just looking at the ISO before you make a comment to see if the thing the person is even saying rings true?

The argument has two parts: (1) LLD's ISO pointed to scumreading Dwlee, and (2) assuming that LLD's ISO pointed to scumreading Dwlee, a team with Dwlee wouldn't kill her. (1) is at the very least under debate, I don't think it's clearly false, which means that the argument might have merit if (2) is true. Thus establishing that I believe (2) is valuable as long as (1) isn't obviously false, which it isn't.

Also, I felt like it.

the PoE on the Lavar wagon is now smaller

What do you mean by this? Wouldn't some people on the wagon flipping town/being townread decrease the expected number of scum on the wagon? Unless you have a particular reason to believe the wagon required extra scum help to go through, which seems impossible to know without knowing the alignments of marci/Dwlee.

Someone help me figure out if this is a real or fake town slip

It doesn't look like either? Marci talked about doing NKA based on "deaths" which implies an uncertainty about where the second kill came from, and Gamma responded by saying that LLD almost certainly invictus'd Datisi (which is true; as far as I know there is no hard mod confirmation of it but it's heavily implied).

So, I feel like maybe I should just out who I am going to be targeting, and then have us decide who we will be targeting over night?

Obviously impossible to know for sure because I don't know your role, but this seems good. I don't think scum knowing your target is really that impactful, just make sure that it's someone who's relatively widely scumread.

...because?

On my side I'm generally just fine with wagoning anyone whom I don't townread. The only thing that might give me pause is Gamma's post:

gorilla was my strongest town read yesterday and I still strongly think that he's town, he's been active in sharing reads/opinions and in trying push scumreads/wagons yesterday until deadline came up, and his reaction to VPB felt VERY don't-give-a-shit-town to me. His recent responses to Meuh reinforce that point even more.

I intend to look into this, Gamma if you could elaborate/give examples that would be helpful. I would definitely like to avoid wagoning someone's strongest townread if possible.

I also saw the Mala softs fwiw, I think it's to town's advantage to not have her clarify unless we receive significant pressure (or she does). You don't have to assume we're clear, but you should consider that it's a possibility. I also think that Val's reaction to Kovu pushing us despite the softs was pretty towny.

-Reason

[gorilla]

@R&R

Ah, my bad. Even still, I don't think Dunn would make that post unless there was at least a grain of truth to it, so I don't think you should necessarily dismiss it.

This is oddly credulous. Dunnstral resorts to arguing like a three-year old, and your response is "hold on, maybe he has a point"?

Hello nice to meet you, my name is something underscore smart and this is my thing. Especially early in such a large game, I heavily de-emphasize scumhunting in favor of townhunting, but also just starting discussions on topics that are valuable and helping people get on the same page for things. If you're insinuating that I as scum can't/won't fake scumhunting, I assure you that isn't the case.

Okay, so who do you have as town right now?

I think it's very interesting, like you guys are all "just invictus enchant!!" or "enchant is scum!!!" just enchant goes "Gorilla maf" and now all of a sudden everyone is like "yeah!!" like, why did you have to wait for enchant for you to actually do something?
"Since when am I sheeping? I already said..."
ummm you waited for enchant.. yeah it falls into the category of sheeping, like, sure I definitely agree with gorilla being suspicious. for sure. but this wagon coming from a town (collective unit) where many yall are actively like "enchant isn't town!!" like, that feels really odd to me, also as long as gorilla continues to be like one of the only ones actively doing anything, I'm not voting gorilla d2

hard agree with all this.

Oh yeah? Quote where I called Enchant scum or said to invictus them.

You can't, I never said that. And I explained why I voted gorilla in my post above, it's not sheeping enchant or the marci-gorilla case (which I'm admittedly not sold on).

So you two are talking about Meuh then, but referring to them as town (collective unit) and implying that this is a thing multiple people are doing.

This again, just feels like arguing for the sake of arguing - "try to prove I said anything about enchant!!" is just engaging in pedantry wanting to invalidate a generalized statement kovu was making. It feels like he thinks if he disproves this specific argument that he was calling Enchant scum, it exonerates him in some way. It's trivial. It's pointless. It advances nothing. But scum like to bog the game down in arguments such as this one.

And again, I should note that for someone who allegedly believes

I

am being defensive, all Dunn seems concerned with is arguing against scumreads on him.

I find Marci's progression on Meuh suspicious.

She started scum reading Meuh early, I see no signs of that changing throughout day 1. Then she opened up day 2 dropping shade on Meuh. Then in 1375 there is not a hint of concern there that meuh could be scum pushing her. Pure confidence that Meuh is town.

She also latched onto the idea that 1030 would come from town meuh, but that came before 1240 and therefore seems unlikely to be the thing that changed her read there?

This is an interesting point, and I'm having trouble believing a lot of marci's reasoning today is genuine. Would absolutely be willing to flip her given potential associations - if she flips scum I'd feel a lot better about Luke. 1418 as a response is incredibly underwhelming - the dismissive tone and brushing it off as "progression behind closed doors" strikes me as scummy - I would figure it would be easy for a town player to lay out the exact thought process behind their read shifting.

[gorilla]

Oh wow lol

Mostly because I didn’t like your reaction to being wagoned, and I haven’t seen anything from you yet that shouted town at me

~Rhyme

On my side I'm generally just fine with wagoning anyone whom I don't townread.

That's fairly underwhelming for Day 2 but I'm largely going about the same process so I should ask: Who

are

you townreading?

[Rhyme and Reason]

This is oddly credulous. Dunnstral resorts to arguing like a three-year old, and your response is "hold on, maybe he has a point"?

It's based on experience with Dunn. He's snarky, but his snark usually has a purpose instead of just being annoying.

Okay, so who do you have as town right now?

The names that come to mind are Cakez Kovu Val Mala Dwlee Luke, in no particular order. (And Bell, of course.) I wrote this without looking at Mena's reads, but they actually sync up impressively; the only difference is he has Meuh instead of Kovu.

-Reason

[gorilla]

True. We don't need to decide right now.

I was mainly checking to see if you would be nervous signing up to be a part of my mystery pr shenanigans.

I liked your response tbh

This response, though...just feels like he's letting her off too easy? Bleh, bleh, bleh. After suspecting her on the previous page to reverse so easily doesn't sit right with me.

[Lukewarm]

I think that Mala softest hard enough, that she should just out whatever info she has.

I generally doubt that if she has a pr, it can actually clear both herself and r&r if Bell is also self clearing. Which makes me worried it's just a bluff from her

I kinda want to kill her today, so outing it to determine if that changes my mind is probably good too

Pedit: why is mala in your town list?

[gorilla]

The names that come to mind are Cakez Kovu Val Mala Dwlee Luke, in no particular order. (And Bell, of course.) I wrote this without looking at Mena's reads, but they actually sync up impressively; the only difference is he has Meuh instead of Kovu.

-Reason

can more or less agree on cakez/kovu, mala pending whatever is going on with her PR although I think her actual content is decent. Val/Luke I'm uncertain on, they have some things I like but nothing I'd hard clear them on.

Why dwlee, of all people? I don't want to hear about the nightkill, please give me something from their actual posts that is worthy of being a top townread.

[Lukewarm]

True. We don't need to decide right now.

I was mainly checking to see if you would be nervous signing up to be a part of my mystery pr shenanigans.

I liked your response tbh

This response, though...just feels like he's letting her off too easy? Bleh, bleh, bleh. After suspecting her on the previous page to reverse so easily doesn't sit right with me.

Her response was not scummy, and there was no hint at trying to angle for someone else to be the person I twin with.

I didn't say that it was clearing, or that suddenly I am sure she was town.

Just that I liked her response, and dropping the line about trying to work out a twining target with her seemed fine now that I got her response.

----

What exactly does not sit right with you?

[VP Baltar]

Mala softest hard enough, that she should just out whatever info she has.

No

[Val89]

I also saw the Mala softs fwiw, I think it's to town's advantage to not have her clarify unless we receive significant pressure (or she does). You don't have to assume we're clear, but you should consider that it's a possibility.

Noted. Accepted.

For the record, I also believe Lukewarm's claim; one reason being that with the mod saying explicitly that there is EXACTLY ONE role which exceed the guidelines laid out, and for lukewarm to then pontificate they are that exactly one role invites a counterclaim if lukewarm is scum. Gorilla's attempt to throw shade in that direction is noted.

The names that come to mind are Cakez Kovu Val Mala Dwlee Luke, in no particular order. (And Bell, of course.)

I've had a quick skim, but unless I missed it, I don't see why Cakez either. I'm open to having my mind changed on that read if you thing there is something I ought to consider there.

[VP Baltar]

The argument has two parts: (1) LLD's ISO pointed to scumreading Dwlee, and (2) assuming that LLD's ISO pointed to scumreading Dwlee, a team with Dwlee wouldn't kill her. (1) is at the very least under debate, I don't think it's clearly false, which means that the argument might have merit if (2) is true. Thus establishing that I believe (2) is valuable as long as (1) isn't obviously false, which it isn't.

1) the only thing I saw in her iso that strongly pointed to a dwlee scum read was a single vote. That's some absolute weak shit to hang your theory on.

2) no, it doesn't because there are other players on the scum team, as well as other factors to consider, such as scum PRs and how well positioned other scum players are. Saving dwlee, who was wagoned D1, is not a given as a priority.

This post lacks Reason entirely, and I hope you are ashamed. I have no clue why you are trying to push a theory that is demonstrably without significant merit.

[Dwlee99]

But if Gammagooey was scum surely they'd know that LLD was the nightkill and therefore Datisi was the invictus, which is why it's a town slip

[gorilla]

True. We don't need to decide right now.

I was mainly checking to see if you would be nervous signing up to be a part of my mystery pr shenanigans.

I liked your response tbh

This response, though...just feels like he's letting her off too easy? Bleh, bleh, bleh. After suspecting her on the previous page to reverse so easily doesn't sit right with me.

Her response was not scummy, and there was no hint at trying to angle for someone else to be the person I twin with.

I didn't say that it was clearing, or that suddenly I am sure she was town.

Just that I liked her response, and dropping the line about trying to work out a twining target with her seemed fine now that I got her response.

----

What exactly does not sit right with you?

It just feels like it could be pocketing. Like you gave her a little softball questioning and when she answered you said you liked the response so that she's on your good side, you had a little moment talking about your PR and everything

[VP Baltar]

But if Gammagooey was scum surely they'd know that LLD was the nightkill and therefore Datisi was the invictus, which is why it's a town slip

It was already discussed in the thread though. If you're using that logic, you should apply it to whoever was the first confused person (which I don't recall off the top of my head).

I also just think that's such an easy thing to fake it's kind of pointless, but you do you

[Lukewarm]

Mala softest hard enough, that she should just out whatever info she has.

No

Well, do tou think mala saying "me and r&r are town" is enough for both mala and r&r to be taken off the table? Because I don't.

[gorilla]

For the record, I also believe Lukewarm's claim; one reason being that with the mod saying explicitly that there is EXACTLY ONE role which exceed the guidelines laid out, and for lukewarm to then pontificate they are that exactly one role invites a counterclaim if lukewarm is scum. Gorilla's attempt to throw shade in that direction is noted.

...you do realize the role that exceeded the guidelines in the original game was a scum one, right? It's not remotely a reason to clear someone off the claim. You can ask yourself "why would scum claim such a role openly", but if they present it as being used in a protown way, get people to go along with it, that would seem to be a worthy use of the role.

Yes, admittedly, I'm being very paranoid about this but in my mind it makes sense to have a role that can potentially act as a counter for the town mass coordinating invictus targets, which seems elf-evidently one of the most powerful strategic moves that can be done.


It's possible this worrying is all for nothing! But writing someone off immediately on the basis of a roleclaim is how town loses games. And to be clear: I am not even remotely close to pushing to vote lukewarm today, he'd be pretty far down my list even with the reasons I have to be cautious.