Open 853 - PYP X/Y S_S [game over!]

[Gamma Emerald]

yup
she's probably town for that

[Gamma Emerald]

Why do you scum read Gamma?

Because I don’t tr him yet

It’s hard to explain a negative

so during D1 you SR me because you found nothing towny about me
now you TR me because you find nothing scummy about me
why shouldn't you be turboyeeted for being caught red-handed in BS reads?

btw if anyone wants to try and explain THIS away, be my guest!

[MathBlade]

Why do you scum read Gamma?

Because I don’t tr him yet

It’s hard to explain a negative

so during D1 you SR me because you found nothing towny about me
now you TR me because you find nothing scummy about me
why shouldn't you be turboyeeted for being caught red-handed in BS reads?

btw if anyone wants to try and explain THIS away, be my guest!

Simple I am town

Both statements are true

But since we got scum yesterday I inverted it.

[Roden]

Kinda just talking out loud here but like, why didn't scum jump on Klick when Gamma and I voted there early on when Ari vs HEM was losing steam? I really think the slot is town at this point, so it's weird that the wagon there didn't get any momentum until Math replaced in and hard defended HEM. I'm not any good at VCA, but I feel like the VCs around the time Math replaced in have to be important. It's just weird for scum to ignore a wagon on someone who's barely present, but then potentially push them when they defend one of your scum buddies.

[MathBlade]

yup
she's probably town for that

Why the defense here?

It’s clear I am the only one scumreading Titus.

I don’t see this as TvT I see it as TvS

[Aristeia]

one of the ways i read mathblade is like

he can't really stop himself when he's town because he thinks he's right

and he can't resist telling you he's right

whereas when he's scum he knows he's wrong and he's not nearly as enthusiastic about his opinions because he doesn't like being wrong.





and like this game he gives me the "I can't stop talking cuz I am right" vibe

[Gamma Emerald]

I feel like Titus embodies that idea more this game

[Aristeia]

i've found titus to be more reasonable than mathblade but they're similar I guess

[MathBlade]

I feel like Titus embodies that idea more this game

It’s not a competition

Both can be true

I just think Titus is pushing me because she always pushes me as town so she has to as scum

I like cannot get the asking to start a wagon on Wallflower out of my head

[MathBlade]

And yes Ari I will read your suggested section in a few minutes since work ended

[Roden]

Would scum picking informed imply they didn't get a good draft?

I've been thinking that as well. HEM being a Goon despite being higher up on the draft than me implies he was desperate to get a decent PR but failed, which makes me think scum got unlucky with the draft. Otherwise, having a PR at all is good without Multitasking, since having a confirmable night action is semi-clearing.

Kinda surprised HEM didn't take Neighborizer tbh. It's a pretty strong scum PR imo.

I claim Voyeur. Titus, I targeted you last night. Nobody else visited you last night, so if Math wasn't blocked in any way then he has to be town.

No. Even if I wasn’t shot, Math has a partner. However, your position makes sense.

Math's partner doesn't shoot when Math is literally at the bottom of the draft and has to be a Goon. Unless the team is Oops All Goons lol.

[Aristeia]

where i'm at now:

tier 1 TRs:

Gamma - HQ - Titus - Mathblade - Roden(newly added cuz mech)

tier 2

Ausuka - StD

tier 3

Bella -

Null

Dwlee - Wallflower

Scumread

Implosion - Enchant

[MathBlade]

HEM wouldn’t take neighborizer
It doesn’t work with his playstyle as scum

[Gamma Emerald]

I feel like even if Math is Vengeful Goon he takes the shot because a guilty becomes a death sentence for the person that gets it

[MathBlade]

where i'm at now:

tier 1 TRs:

Gamma - HQ - Titus - Mathblade - Roden(newly added cuz mech)

tier 2

Ausuka - StD

tier 3

Bella -

Null

Dwlee - Wallflower

Scumread

Implosion - Enchant

Std is either X or scum. I would put him in Tier 1 for now. Can reevaluate in a few days

[Aristeia]

i did get stomped by StD-Scum recently that's the only reason he's in tier 2

[MathBlade]

i did get stomped by StD-Scum recently that's the only reason he's in tier 2

We will see in a few days

I figure he is like an enchant and sort himself out.

If we don’t hard read him by D4 or D5 he can go.

I would rather go where we agree on Dwlee or implosion

I really feel Asuaka but considering Titus has been screaming I am scum every three seconds I don’t think anything I push ever happens

[Aristeia]

I am willing to listen to any case you put together about anyone as long as I can follow the logic

[MathBlade]

I'm townbinning everyone with a number above 100

we are masons as far as I am concerned.

if this turns out to be tragically wrong later it's not my fault

I was looking at earlier drafts from the wiki page to try and win this draft (2 gets picked surprisingly rarely) and I found that people who pick high numbers are scum surprisingly often, like about 50% of the time iirc. In recent games, I think skitter and saskeismyyaoikismesis were the only ones to pick >20 numbers, and both flipped scum. The fact that so many people did it in this game (usually there's only 1 or 2) makes me suspicious

VOTE: Aristeia

Well I am using the chart that Andante posted in the previous PYP game.

It shows that out of 39 scum selections in 13 games - only one time has scum ever picked a number that is above 100 - I do not think the scum team would give up so much picking power to the townside and send more than 1 person to 100+ in number.

As we happen to have 4 players picking numbers above 100, I believe it is likely we have at most 1 scum and possibly none at all and it's a fairly fun way to narrow POE early.

As you noted in a later post, scum might have rarely done this but the same is true for town. I think that this game being so highly unusual makes most sense if it's a result of scum influence, since they're co-ordinating picks. Which is why I'm suspicious of the 'scum wouldn't pick numbers this high' narrative - my best bet is that there's 2 scum among these people, although I wouldn't rule out 3

If true this probably backfired on scum a little, since they were probably betting on town getting more duplicates than we ended up having. If you look at it from the perspective of 'usually there's a lot of duplicates and just not being in a duplicate leaves you fairly high on the list' it makes more sense as a scum strategy

well actually a town did apparently pick 21 recently I missed that one, I think my point still makes sense though

I think this is actually the fewest number collisions that have ever happened in the draft in this setup - out of the 17 other runs of the game I see one that had 5 people colliding and one that had 6, but this takes the cake with only 4, and most of them had like... in the vicinity of 8-9 people who picked the same number as someone else.

This could theoretically be meaningful in some useful way but probably isn't.

Why do you think it isn't meaningful? I know it's difficult to draw concrete conclusions but isn't it at least worth looking at during RVS? It seems like a major anomaly to me

I mean don't get me wrong I see why that seems unlikely, but as you say there's a wifom element to it - 'scum wouldn't be so crazy as to do this, so it's impossible'

The facts are that the draft is highly unusual in a way that was already scum-indicative for high numbers imo, and you've been playing around it in a weird way

What even is the purpose of that, Ari? Would that help you read us? If not, shouldn't you be appealing to those who wouldn't answer or at least try and convince them?

@Ari; he wants you to pursue the line of questioning by appealing to people who refused to answer to do it

While it's not what I'd do in your position it's not an asshole thing to do imo and I don't think it's a scummy line of questioning for HEM to take particularly

Sorry if I'm being unhelpful btw since I know HEM is here and can speak for himself I'm just trying to de-intensify the situation I guess

Part 1 props up the HEM and you fight.

Pushes you as scum for a good long while and votes you

Then when HEM isn’t getting traction wants to “de intensify” the situation

[MathBlade]

W/ hem - I disagree with most of the points outlined I think. While my perspective might be biased since i'm the one HEM is supposed to be copying, I think the scum motive for pushing the 'high numbers are town' narrative is much clearer than the town motive, and while I disagree with the line of questioning he had about Ari's 3 numbers thing, I don't think it's something that can only come from scum here. Like Ari makes a good case for why the point is wrong but I don't think it makes a good HEM scumcase, I can see town looking at Ari dropping her activity having pushed it so hard and then think, 'ok what's up with that, if you can give it up so easily it was probably busywork' if that makes sense

I am a little curious why HEM came into the thread telling me to shut up about numbers and then went on with similar talking points though

If I were to call you scum it wouldn’t be for that
But like, it’s been proven that scum have gambitted on high numbers before
So what make you think a high number is more likely town?

because scum want to pick before town does; order matters very much to them.

If a scum player picks a PR, that's a PR that a town player can't get.

I find the probability of a "collision" to be very low when you get out to the double digits.

Imo if you pick something between 20 - 40 you are very very unlikely to be collided with.

When you pick a number that is higher than 100, you're basically ceding priority in the pick order to every two digit number without really gaining much in terms of "less collision probability" so I find these picks to be more likely to come from town than scum.

I think it's more likely that a town player would pick a very large out there number rather than a scum player because there are more players in the scum PT and one of them is likely to say "well why dont you pick like 25 instead of 212?"

There's also the sense that you're working as a team to come up with picks that fit your strategy rather than a town player just picking whatever number they happen to like.

Ari I'm curious about this post. I mean, I think it's always best for town to be as high up the draft as possible, to deny scum PRs and increase the likelihood of town PRs, hence why I chose 2. You seem to agree with me here, saying the reason you think it's town indicative is because scum would discuss the issue and then be less likely to do it

But you seem like a smart person who's thought about draft mechanics - if you believe that it's suboptimal to pick a high number, why do it, and why then call HEM out for the same thing (believing it to be suboptimal but choosing a high number anyway)? Am I missing something here?

I can see town looking at Ari dropping her activity having pushed it so hard and then think, 'ok what's up with that, if you can give it up so easily it was probably busywork' if that makes sense

I don't think I gave up particularly easily.

I made multiple posts trying to convince everyone to give me three numbers for example:

45 57 58 76 80 115 121


I gave up because it was fairly clear to me that people were not interested in the thought experiment and I have no desire to twist people's arms into doing something they are not interested in doing.

I mean I don't scumread you for this, I just think it's possible for town to look at your most recent posts at the time and have that thought process, if that makes sense

Point two still voting you despite not scumreading you and defending HEM still

[MathBlade]

I'm suspicious about Dwlee's progression on HEM. They say in post 480 they're voting HEM to sheep Ari. It definitely comes across as a weak read, saying they were basically just voting HEM because Ari said so until they were able to put more effort into sorting. This is mostly fair but some of their later posts rub me the wrong way with this in mind - particularly this post,

MathBlade and HEM probably are SvS

Math just ignored my response to his terrible read on me

The preflip associative here doesn't feel natural imo. Their read on HEM doesn't seem to have advanced - at least, they haven't shown any visible effort to sort HEM in thread, and considering HEM has been the largest wagon for most of the game I'd expect them to talk about their read more if it had. So tying Mathblade and HEM together as a 'probable' scumteam feels too confident from Dwlee here, if that makes sense.

Math is scum 100%

Similarly with this, I understand how the Dwlee math read could come from town but like, the 100% thing seems way too far, much worse than the whole 'I really feel Dwlee is scum' thing Math did.

I want to see Asuaka and Dwlee revisit this.

One or the other is probable scum.

[MathBlade]

hi, really sorry about playing so terribly this game lmao, I didn't want to be like this but irl is really kicking my ass and it's hard to like think clearly and sort people, I'm going to try and catch up to the current page and if anyone has questions about my opinions on like a specific thing I'll do my best to look into it and answer

Okay we made it!

I have (sort of) read the game.

Whew.

I feel pretty good about HQ, Gamma, Dwlee, Aristeia being town.
Ausuka and Bellaphant also give me vaguely positive feelings but I'm not, like, solid. Kind of like ice cream, a weird not-quite-solid, not-quite-liquid amount of certainty!

Mmmm ice cream.

But yes!

The dwlee read seems most at odds with where other people might be at, but I think that Post 548 in particular comes from a town mindset, and in a similar way, Post 1184. I think it's a bit bold of scum to be outright "I like this person because they townread me!" in the way that Dwlee has, but it's an approach that feels consistent with how they are playing this game.

I might need to read over some things again, but when it comes to HEM I just feel... underwhelmed. If they flip scum I'd be like "yeah sure, that makes sense". If they flip town I'd be like "yeah sure, that makes sense". I just can't bring myself to feel stongly either way.

I do have a bit of a pet scumread in implosion. Particularly the insistence on being enthusiastic about the HEM wagon after being called out for exploring other options/being non-committal feels like more of a response to that than true progression of the read.

I love the ice cream analogy

That's kind of how I feel about hem too tbh, I'm leaning town a little bit although it's hard to explain, I guess I got bad vibes from the way the wagon built up

I somewhat see where you're coming from with Dwlee but I guess I just disagree scum would never just give a tr to someone for townreading them

More points that have been dropped and not followed up on.

Still townreading HEM and if they still have bad vibes who bussed and why?

The practically naked vote earlier does no favors.

[MathBlade]

As for Dwlee, you and Titus have opposing reads on them but I don't really understand why? I feel like that's something you can dig into here and feels really important for understanding the game state.

I like this from Roden I think? It feels like a good faith attempt to help a possible town Math

Pedit: I don't think my play was terrible when I was here but I've been starting to lurk and not really contribute to discussions since I've fallen behind

Again this post is horrible.

This is the last post where she expresses a read on me (possible town)

Then goes I dunno on me

Then votes me today.

The progression isn’t there

[MathBlade]

Examples: His push on Dwlee has no substance behind it. He sr Gamma for “not having found town!him yet”, eventhough Gamma played identically in Koba’s mini normal where they were both town. He sr Ausuka for being “nice about maths” or something. When is being nice ever a valid scumtell and especially for Ausuka who - when is she not nice? His progression on STD went from STD lockscum to STD locktown in pretty much the blink of an eye. He posted that if ANY not ALL of Dwlee, Titus, Gamma flip scum, he would then put me or Implosive in hid PoE. However, I am now extremely confident all 3 are town.

And yes, his entire progression on HEM is not what I’ve experienced with town!Math ever. He initially called HEM his top townread but voted HEM under pressure from Aristelia. Town!Math would never allow his arm to be twisted like that to vote a genuine top tr like that. Town!Math is bullheaded and obstinate to a fault. He is also one of the most anti-survivalistic players as town and I don’t recall Math ever being willing to policy anyone. Sometimes town!Math actually gets it right like in Koba’s mini normal and other times very wrong as in White Flag but there is always substance to his reads no matter how outlandish it looks to others. ISO both games to contast them with this one. Town!Math overflows with conviction and is also consistent with his reads. Here, he seems to change his reads on a dime without rhyme or reason. Town!Math doesn’t change his reads easily and definitely never under pressure.

Also he switched his srs on both Ausuka and Ari when they either voted the way he wanted or tr him. He gave me shit for initially not voting but had no issue with bella not voting, eventhough I had the exact same reason for having not voted as she had.

He had STD and Roden as top trs but is now takinv that at least partially back with STD. He did something similar with Gamma. He referred to them both as T/T but now he’s suddenly scum because he couldn’t find town!him early enough.

There are just so many reasons why Math is scum here.

This post helped me see things a bit clearer and it makes me feel better about HQ, having never played with Mathblade before a lot of meta stuff went over my head so I appreciate this clears that up a little bit.

I do like some of the points here. Obviously there's the point about niceness which I already brought up - I don't think the line of questioning I had there is going to go anywhere so I'm left with my original feeling of 'it doesn't seem like a real thought.' it's fair to say people can often be aggro during games but I think being nice to someone who wished you good luck in your exam is fairly obviously NAI?

I will make a mental note to check Math's hem progression when I finish catching up, I feel like I've read both that it's a policy lynch of sorts and that he was pushed into it?

Pedit: Don't underestimate anime

This doesn’t seem followed up on at all either.

It just seems like they’re leaving a lot on the floor here.

So imho they are either scum with Titus or buddying her to try to make her scum cases sound plausible

[MathBlade]

VOTE: Ausaka

If implo becomes a major wagon I will hop over

I kinda prefer A though because of the defense of HEM reads textbook scum