Mafia Invictus Redux [Game Over]

[Val89]

VOTE: Fey

That's the exact opposite of sheeping RR, here.

I'm not sure I trust your motives anymore, but if you are actually are unaligned and your objective really is just to get someone other than yourself in PoE flipped here so we can move on, I would suggest SirCakez is your best bet.

[Meuh]

VOTE: Fey

That's the exact opposite of sheeping RR, here.

I'm not sure I trust your motives anymore, but if you are actually are unaligned and your objective really is just to get someone other than yourself in PoE flipped here so we can move on, I would suggest SirCakez is your best bet.

Yeah Fey's significantly less appealing of a vote because of RR's feelings on her, I'd rather lim someone else. But no one's getting limmed without pushback here, as Gorilla pointed out.

Does SirCakez have a lot of momentum still? If so I'll gladly vote for him, sure VOTE: SirCakez
I was moreso looking for some sort of decision from the group Bell's proposed because town unity is fun, and looked at what Fire was thinking

Prism must hate me for constantly changing my votes

[Meuh]

I'd gladly sheep RR if they existed, I trust their judgement more than anyone and I think they could actually unify us since they're confirmed.
..but deadline's in like a day and a half and they aren't here, so we should probably coordinate

something

Cakez does sound significantly better than Fey so I do hope there's enough momentum there

[Meuh]

Wait Val by "unaligned" do you mean "not aligned with the mafia"/"has no agenda" or "third party"? Because to make it clear, I'm a townie. Not sure if third parties could even exist in this setup

[Enchant]

I am Jester

[Val89]

I did mean it in the sense that you aren't pushing an agenda, yes.

I am sure you can understand when I see you outwardly say essentially "anyone but me" (I can see that as townie), and implore us to just condense and get a flip, but then float both Dunn and Fey as the ones you would rather start with and avoid what I believe is still largest wagon.

[Meuh]

Like I would gladly follow a conftown or likely town leader but no one's really leading so ???
Out of the 4 conf town or near universal townreads there's:
-One who isn't really around
-One who seemingly has little to no confidence in his reads; but proposed a group to make a decision, that clearly is not going to make one
-Two who are voting for me

So like I'm not sure what you expect me to do at this point, this gamestate sucks and we should absolutely be doing better right now. It's disappointing because seeing Marci flip scum gave me a bunch of confidence in us just easily sweeping the mafia, and that confidence has been crushed more and more as the day has gone on. I wish VPB or Luke was still around

Pedit: Legitimately just kinda forgot where the votes were and I was focused on the pool presented by Fire
To me Cakez is weird to read here because comparatively to say Dunn, he's townpinged me more but also scumpinged me more.
It's conflicting
I'm 100% down for his lim though, let's do it please

Lim Cakez lim Cakez lim Cakez lim Cakez

[Meuh]

avoid what I believe is still largest wagon

Pretty sure you, Dunn and me are the only ones voting Cakez at the moment, the largest wagon was the one on me I believe? (Gorilla, Fire, Kovu)
So I'm not even sure this is an accurate assessment of the game state and it's not really the one I had when voting for Fey.

[Enchant]

I can lead town and be townleader, but i need choke both conftowns first.

Wait 1-2 nights pls and i will carry game.

[Val89]

You might be correct - I didn't go back and count, hence why I said 'I believe'.

How many people were voting for Fey?

Out of the 4 conf town or near universal townreads there's
-One who isn't really around

That'll be RR, I presume.

-One who seemingly has little to no confidence in his reads; but proposed a group to make a decision, that clearly is not going to make one

Bell, right?

-Two who are voting for me

The 3 voting you are Gorilla, Fire, Kovu.

Which of those 3 are you NOT counting as a 'near universal townread', to get 4 total?

[Meuh]

Gorilla is

[Val89]

Who do you consider to be scumreading Gorilla, and why did you distinguish that slot from the other two also voting voting?

Are you scum reading gorilla?

Presumably your point with that post is you started a new wagon on Fey (nobody was voting her, I've just gone back to answer that question myself) because you didn't feel like there was anyone you could really sheep; correct?

[Val89]

voting you*

[Kovu]

We have 1 day remaining, I'll lim anyone in meuh/dunn/enchant/val

[SirCakez]

Spoiler:

In Slaughter Hour Dunn was scum who I spent a good amount of time pushing before he got killed

VOTE: dunnstral
I think this is now my strongest scumread
He is playing to his scum meta to a T - drive-by posting, lack of investment, few memorable posts or pushes
I can't really think of a scum team in this playerlist that doesn't have Dunn in it while I could see Peta or Unwnd not being in one

Unwnd if you are town here I could really use your thoughts on Dunn

Null

Thought town for a minute but changed my mind. Don't want to think about right now. Confident in solving later.

like this is one of those things that gives me pause w/unwnd because it seems like a weirdly artificial avoidance of Dunn when he just dropped big reads on most of the other players

like I make definite statements but I am open to changing my mind
i'm not some deathtunneler
no one has presented any reason for Dunn to be town so why would I change my mind on that?

as seen here

VOTE: SirCakez

Basically don't think Skitter scum defends Cakez the way she has if Cakez is scum

i would not make that assumption


granted on a gut level she's still town but i have nothing deeper until we get some form of actual flips and voting

Yeah alright I'll discard it

Are you fine with voting Dunn off? Assume no based on your posts

I'm not being voted off, I'm being voted into a duel. You should probably know that I'm, like, 70% likely to win anything that isn't complete rng here, even at a disadvantage, if we're being completely honest. Just saying. Oh also Cakez is scum.

then he IMMEDIATELY responds with OMGUS and starts trying to discredit me
EXACTLY what he's doing here guys

I also feel very comfortable with my townread on Lukewarm. I'm treating Kovu as town for reasons previously discussed. I still think Marci is more likely town than not.

I don't pretend to be able to read enchant particularly well, but their votes and other content we have has all made at least sense to me, neither am I detecting any difference between enchant here and town!enchant in the games I have seen. I have some sympathy for the argument that enchant will be a difficult sort and we might need to consider dealing with it sooner or later, but I think they deserve more of a chance for something else to happen to make that alignment more clear, and I'm not interested in a vote there today.

I want people to actually start reading my posts, so I will give justification elsewhere, but I wouldn't vote Dunn today either. I could probably be convinced to join a wagon on anyone else not mentioned, but my strong preference is for SirCakez, as indicated by my vote.

like all my scumspects suddenly developed scumreads on me after I laid out my scumpool yesterday and I don't think it's a coincidence

I would very much like to kill Cakez today if anyone else is interested.

Like, here he is pushing the idea that scum would scum read him for scum reading scum. Ignores the fact that he town binned Dunn Day 1, but Dunn was pushed him.

[Dunn shading Cakez, while cakez is still calling dunn town]

My point above being that the above post feels selective in that you don't include the information that doesn't support your viewpoint, or seem to care what I am doing because I'm not a popular wagon right now, which feels inconsistent

I ignored it because I've gotten tons of towntells from you earlier on so I didn't see the relevance

[]

It also ignores the people who are scum reading him that are not in his scum pool. (Me, I am talking about me. He has done nothing but call me town, but is then calling other people suspicious for doing something that I am also doing).

Yeah and did Dunn spend any time day 1 pushing me? no he didn't. has he spent most of today sitting on me? yeah he has. what changed in the meantime? not rocket science

I didn't say people scumreading me are scum so your last bit doesn't make any sense
I'm saying that I think scum want to get rid of me at this point, assuming my scumreads rn are correct

Yeah and did Dunn spend any time day 1 pushing me? no he didn't. has he spent most of today sitting on me? yeah he has. what changed in the meantime? not rocket science

This is wrong.
He started scum reading you at the end of day 1. You were town reading him at the time. You scum reading him clearly had nothing to do with him scum reading you, since they happened in the other order. If anything, it looks like you OMGUS'ed him.

He is not sitting on you today, he has literally never voted you. He is voting gorilla.

I didn't say people scumreading me are scum so your last bit doesn't make any sense
I'm saying that I think scum want to get rid of me at this point, assuming my scumreads rn are correct

My point was that it felt like you were selectively applying things. Like, I saw your comment, but then no hint at you second guessing your read on me, and I immediately remembered this from Dunn day 1

My point above being that the above post feels selective in that you don't include the information that doesn't support your viewpoint, or seem to care what I am doing because I'm not a popular wagon right now, which feels inconsistent

It does feel like you are doing this imo.

Okay I re-ISOed Dunn and they have not been on me as much as I thought
I will still stand by their recent reaction to me being bad

Here is where you try to bring up meta again after that. It ends up being factually wrong in the way you are comparing the two games such that what you are comparing to hadn't actually happened in this game at all. It immediately gets called out by Lukewarm in the following post 1610. You go on to say I wasn't on you "as much as you thought" even though this is a binary yes/no you got wrong, and dropped the meta point in favor of "their recent reaction".

Now you're back to meta again. And there's no way you can have this case as scum. Except, what is your meta case right now?

I stopped arguing with Luke because he was not listening to me and kept moving the goalposts so I was like whatever I'll end this
Recently you've been obsessed with me and basically haven't done anything besides argue with me about my SR on you. That's why I came out and was like Dunn respond to something and you just came back and started slap fighting with me again. You're like...not doing anything here and that's what I meant by being bad recently.

[SirCakez]

I think I have this bad habit of simply dropping my thoughts on individual posts rather than the broader game someone is playing. This makes my reads harder to follow and it applies to how I was feeling about Marci.

I think this whole post from Meuh was townie and especially this bit. This feels like something you only notice as town.

[Meuh]

Who do you consider to be scumreading Gorilla, and why did you distinguish that slot from the other two also voting voting?

Are you scum reading gorilla?

Presumably your point with that post is you started a new wagon on Fey (nobody was voting her, I've just gone back to answer that question myself) because you didn't feel like there was anyone you could really sheep; correct?

To me, everyone falls into 4 categories

Conf town

Bell, RR

Very likely town besties

Fire, Kovu

Have a significant chance of flipping scum but should not be limmed today due to being less suspicious than those in the limpool and/or because they likely will have their alignment be resolved through mech play

Gorilla, Val, Gamma

Limpool

Cakez, Enchant, Dunn, Fey

So that's why Gorilla's distinguished from Fire and Kovu, he doesn't exist in the same space in my mind.
Also isn't Enchant literally voting for him? I know Enchant is to be taken with a grain of salt, but still.
Plus I have my own doubts about him, I'd say Gamma flips scum more than you or Gorilla, but based on play Gorilla's scummier than you.
The only thing making me think you might be scum more often than Gorilla here are the claims. Protective being real sounds more likely than another information based role. (Though imo 1-shot cop + FN + traffic analyst is not impossible in the slightest)

You might be correct - I didn't go back and count, hence why I said 'I believe'.

How many people were voting for Fey?

Yeah, I don't think you were deliberately overstating the Cakez wagon to go after me, I just felt it was relevant to point out because it seems to be at the root of that point you made against me.

I know you already mentioned 0 people were voting for Fey, but that's not particularly relevant to me tbh. No one other than myself had more than 2 votes so there weren't really any wagons set in stone. I think looking at who people were/weren't willing to lim through their words is much more significant than just looking at vote counts and nothing else when only 2/7 votes needed were on anyone I was considering. Because of all of this, I don't think a lack of votes made Fey and unviable lim by any means.

[Val89]

Fair. My concerns are assuaged, to borrow a term.

[SirCakez]

VOTE: SirCakez

I count that as 4 votes on Cakez.

The pool of realistic non-"deep wolf" suspects is small enough to me that I think there has to be some busing going on somewhere when essentially all of them have had some sort of wagon of various sizes on them today.

I still think Val is scummy and posts like this exemplify why. He keeps jumping on and off of me whenever someone else gives a reason to push me but it doesn't seem like there's any thoughts from him backing it up.

[SirCakez]

VOTE: SirCakez

I count that as 4 votes on Cakez.

The pool of realistic non-"deep wolf" suspects is small enough to me that I think there has to be some busing going on somewhere when essentially all of them have had some sort of wagon of various sizes on them today.

Since Fey has come up I will say I think they are still a question mark but their claim and start of day today makes me not interested in a wagon there rn

[SirCakez]

I still want Cakez to say what the meta argument is. Or what they are talking about. Or just admit they are spouting nonsense.

Like whenever Dunn rolls in it's just shit like this and not anything that makes me think he's actually trying to find scum here

[SirCakez]

VOTE: SirCakez

I count that as 4 votes on Cakez.

The pool of realistic non-"deep wolf" suspects is small enough to me that I think there has to be some busing going on somewhere when essentially all of them have had some sort of wagon of various sizes on them today.

I still want Cakez to say what the meta argument is. Or what they are talking about. Or just admit they are spouting nonsense.

The sheer resistance to like every wagon makes me think we are onto scum and the remaining scum are being resistant. There should be at least three still.

[SirCakez]

Ignore those quotes as usual
I am fine killing Enchant as well

[fireisredsir]

ok I just had a thought, maybe it's dumb but hear me out

am i 100% convinced enchant is maf? no, not at all

when i try to imagine what scum teams there could be, is enchant on the vast majority of them? yes

does enchant 100% need to be resolved before elo? yes

and the thing I realized is... even on the off chance that enchant is town here, im pretty sure scum would actually want them not to be limmed? like, think about it. if we flip someone else today, im guessing a lot of the town will be heading into the night with invictus on enchant. i know i probably will. people are tired of hero shots, and just want to narrow the poe. it makes sense. but thats actually shielding for scum. if they know that enchant is town, then they want everyone's invictus on them because invictus shots are much harder to predict compared to their ability to influence the lim during the day. limming enchant removes that shield and makes it harder for them to feel safe with their night kill

and the pretty likely alternative is that enchant is just scum. so it's a win win

VOTE: Enchant

[Kovu]

Very likely town besties
Fire, Kovu

awww FIRE!!! WE'RE TOWN BESTIES!!!