Mafia Invictus Redux [Game Over]

[Gammagooey]

Looks like my theory was right

which theory?

The Marci/Gorilla scumteam one

If you are right you can nominate me for twat of the year for scumreading you for voting/casing gorilla over marci in the first place

Gorilla who did you guard last night?

[fireisredsir]

I still think Dun is scum so I’ll have to recheck Gorilla’s push on him yesterday, I’m curious if it looks like bussing at all

i don't think dunn and gorilla paired is very likely due to the way the luke situation played out

Why is that? I can’t say that part of the game particularly stuck to me

dunn volunteered to pair with luke on gorilla. i guess maybe he was just willing to let luke shoot his teammate? actually he did say start of next day that he moved his invictus off gorilla so maybe he was planning to do that all along. ig it's not impossible but it seems less likely to me

[fireisredsir]

Looks like my theory was right

which theory?

The Marci/Gorilla scumteam one

If you are right you can nominate me for twat of the year for scumreading you for voting/casing gorilla over marci in the first place

i also think this makes meuh very unlikely paired with gorilla. calling out two partners as S/S on d2 seems kinda throwy

[Gammagooey]

Looks like my theory was right

which theory?

The Marci/Gorilla scumteam one

If you are right you can nominate me for twat of the year for scumreading you for voting/casing gorilla over marci in the first place

i also think this makes meuh very unlikely paired with gorilla. calling out two partners as S/S on d2 seems kinda throwy

this is like 90+% devil's advocate/my own annoyance talking

but I'm p. sure you mentioned some of the gorilla/marci posting from Meuh being potentially tmi before - would gorilla being scum make it feel substantially different to you? And regardless of whether gorilla flips scum, does her potential tmi on marci feel that different from Cakez's pushes on marci that you thought could be bussing?

[gorilla]

Checked my PT and I did target Val for protection, which means I was roleblocked.

[fireisredsir]

this is like 90+% devil's advocate/my own annoyance talking

but I'm p. sure you mentioned some of the gorilla/marci posting from Meuh being potentially tmi before - would gorilla being scum make it feel substantially different to you? And regardless of whether gorilla flips scum, does her potential tmi on marci feel that different from Cakez's pushes on marci that you thought could be bussing?

uhh yes? the point was that it's scummy if she's fake partner hunting for her partner before that partner flips, and then using that to push town. it's not scummy at all to be hunting for real partner associations, it's dumb play. technically i guess you could call it tmi, but there's basically no advantage to doing it, and i think meuh is smarter than that. it's scummy tmi if the person is using it to advance scum wincon. so if gorilla is scum, then meuh wasn't really gaining anything by pushing marci/gorilla, and so is much more likely to be town. it's also possible that it's meuh scum gorilla town. i just don't think they're paired

i don't really understand the comparison to cakez at all tbh, they're p different situations

[gorilla]

If you think I counter-claim my own partner's fakeclaim to get her elimmed then out myself a day later, that's on you I guess. It should be clear enough I'm not scum here if you stop to think rather than making blind guesses about mechanics.

(No, I don't have a good answer for why I was blocked and not Bell for instance).

[Kovu]

gorilla, what are your thoughts on cakez flipping town?

[gorilla]

I admit to being off the mark on cakez and I'll take responsibility there. But by all means, if you mindlessly kill me today, please listen to me and realize Meuh has been pushing obvious horseshit. Her posts about marci were terrible and she was blatantly not trying to actually scumhunt yesterday but pushing wherever it was opportune. I do not believe she is following any legitimate process.

[gorilla]

gorilla, what are your thoughts on cakez flipping town?

I don't really have any major thoughts, I thought the suspicion against him was mostly justified and it's disappointing to be wrong there.

It's possible I was just...really bad and wrong on Fey, too. I don't know. But Meuh is absolutely scum.

[gorilla]

Spoiler:

Also, Marci going against a scumread on me? That’s new. I was expecting her to scumread me by now

Do you think it means anything in terms of her alignment this game?

Marci and I tend to read each other poorly, especially early on in games. A whole lot of inaccurate scumreading.
I still don't think it's unrealistic for Marci to feel neut about me here though.
What does feel off about it is her using this read on me to push back on Datisi. Even if she does feel neutral about me, I don't think she says this:

i also *shocker here* dont agree with meuh feeling off yet, i think she hasnt done much alignment indicative yet and i think ur hating on her for her basic personality

This does not really seem like a way to go after Datisi that I expect town!Marci to do.

Honestly my approach on reading Marci as of late is to just not do it on day 1
It's not worth the effort in forming a read that'll probably be poor and I'd rather spend that time and energy somewhere else.
I think I'm decent at reading Marci later on in the game with flips having happened so I'd rather do it then. (viewtopic.php?p=12746354#p12746354)
There's a need for it here though because of the wagon on her, and while I don't feel great about her, it's not as strong of a feeling as the one on Lavar.

Also I just found out you can highlight a part of a post before quoting it and it'll only quote that part??? That's so useful how did I not know this

meuh needs to have more scumreads imo

Sircakez looks bad in general but I’m fine with waiting for more content since he’s VLA. Perhaps a clash in thought process but 197 reads very unnatural.

Datisi’s 260 looks pretty bad to me tbh. I’m conflicted on its alignment. His early posting which bothered people didn’t bother me but some of his more recent posting rubs me the wrong way. Still not particularly compelled to push there

I think there’s scum (probably like 2) in tako/Enchant/Lambda/Lavar/RR/Val. I’m getting a lot of townie vibes from the general activity of the game if that makes any sense? and those are the 6 that either haven’t said much or haven’t done that much that stuck to me as indicative of much.

You could also be scum but like I said before, that’s not something I’m particularly keen on figuring out at the moment

Pedit: oh Gorilla’s list is similar to what I’m thinking lol

Despite a bunch of shade and mild scumreads, I’ve only gotten 2 votes? Idk I’m kinda expecting more action to have been taken.
Plus both of those votes on me were retracted, one pretty quickly.
Kinda gives me the vibe scum have a more convenient wagon to chill on and I’m just there as a backup if wagons on other townies die down.
This is +town on Marci especially but also Datisi.
Don’t think either of those wagons struck gold from the general circumstances.

Maybe the Bell wagon’s correct but the only thing that’s stuck out to me about them is being mildly infuriating, which sadly isn’t a scumtell.

Why is it town for Marci and Datisi but not for Bell?

I think the timing of it makes it less town indicative for Bell. The wagon gained momentum later, once I was being less considered (and only had 1 vote on me, from someone scumread by many).
Bell wouldn’t really fulfill the role of the “existing wagon scum are satisfied with” in the same way Marci or Datisi was imo

@Meuh - Do you have any more detailed thoughts on VPB atm from his earlier posts? I wouldn't mind hearing 'em if you do.

Meh as I've said before not really. I think some things levied against him early on (like being too careless with posts) didn't really mean much.
I'll have to ISO him probably, a lot of the points against him come down to meta, which I have no knowledge of.
His recent posting is weird and decently scummy. I trust the people on him a good amount and think a wagon on him is preferable to one on Marci or Bell so I'm chilling with it.
I don't really get which way someone can look at the game and come out of it thinking Kovu's scum, even with a scumread on Bell. That confuses me from VPB.

I think there’s scum (probably like 2) in tako/Enchant/Lambda/Lavar/RR/Val. I’m getting a lot of townie vibes from the general activity of the game if that makes any sense? and those are the 6 that either haven’t said much or haven’t done that much that stuck to me as indicative of much.

i haven't really paid attention to rhyme and reason that much, they aren't completely dead like some of those other names imo but nothing theyve done has really screamed yet, yknow? what do you see wrong with them rn?

I feel about the same as you about them, which is why they're in my POE
This game feels town-led so the slots that aren't involved much feel like they have high scum equity
I feel similar about Val than about RR (though Val has done more I think, it just hasn't stuck to me)

actually tho bell whys cakez scummier than the rest?

This is a good post from Marci imo

I have not read the game entire, yet it
Is thought by me — the wagon Bell attracts
Quite good may be. I cast our vote for him;
He has not here his normal tone he seems
To me to lack conviction that, when town
He has achieved in role PM, he with
Swift, easy facility presents in game


VOTE: Bell

My friend still stays with me in fair Madrid
No posts shall here forthcome until the morn
~Reason

this could definitely be a Bell scumbuddy
there's zero conviction in this vote and it feels like distancing IMO

Is your perception of RR entirely based on equity with Bell?

I should give some bits of the game a reread because some of it I just don’t really remember or spent much energy on interpreting.
Not that much has been sticking to me thus far.
Dunn/Gorilla/Fire/VB/Lukewarm/Bell probably town here

Also what’s the expected number of scum here? 4? 5? Never played this big of a game on this site.

these reads suck how could you have VP and Bell as town? and what has Gorilla done really?

329
Gorilla good vibes!

Cakez is kinda weird for me to read rn because his vibes are good but some of his reads (especially on Bell) are a bit perplexing.
Either way there's enough town pings for me to not really feel great about limming him today

VOTE: LavarManos

WOOO FLASHWAGON LAVAR!! E-something

Marci lim is bad so this is fun

My tinfoil is that Datisi and Marci are partners. Marci tried to bus Datisi early and could not justify it.

Oh okay, I guess Lavar’s scum. That post alone convinces me
The *gamestate becoming bad for the scum team* to *proposing an insane tinfoil theory* pipeline is real…

inb4 Mathblade/Titus S/S

I did the same thing in my last game where I was scum. Right after things suddenly got way worse for the mafia team.

It is worth remembering from all the garbage Meuh threw at me, she was very blatantly defending marci on Day 1 and tried to save her from the elim. On Day 2 she suddenly flipped her read 180 degrees and started calling marci scum, but pushing me as her partner. The shift is incredibly unnatural, and the fact that she went after me over actually attacking marci is highly partner-indicative.

Now, you have a right not to believe me because I've played a pretty crap game. But if you need to, kill me, realize I'm town, realize what absolute bullshit Meuh was pulling against me, and Invictus her. That's all I ask.

[gorilla]

I did the math in my head, assuming 3 scum remaining (and hopefully it is that), town only has 2 chances left to get it right or it's game over.

It's pretty selfish of me to want to dictate a kill after being wrong all game, and especially after giving in on Enchant when I felt that was the wrong vote, but it's hardly like anyone else has shown themselves to be more trustworthy.

[gorilla]

I had thought Cakez made sense as a scum role because of setup speculation. I was wrong. But I don't think it was an unreasonable assumption to make.


I think logical expectation is that means a neighbor is scum, given the presence of the traffic analyst in the setup. But I'm townreading both of the neighbors individually, so I really don't know what to do with that.

[gorilla]

Kovu, how big is your PT with fire now?

[Kovu]

Kovu, how big is your PT with fire now?

~2000 posts and it's roughly a 50/50 split for how many from each of us

[gorilla]

Meh, I had a tinfoil theory that they were faking the hood being that size, because a private topic with that many posts is highly implausible. However, a quick look through marci's ISO reveals 1415 as plausibly un-aligned with Kovu, and I still think there's no chance she makes 2016 2107 and 2134 as mafia. If she did, well done, I'm completely fine with losing to that play.

still sus of marci, a lot of that early stuff about datisi is just... i have a hard time seeing it coming from a town mindset. but also like... no offense marci, but she seems clearly new. sometimes i have a hard time understanding the thought process of newer players. and like, i agree with the points for why she's scummy, but idk, some of the people jumping on her feel a bit opportunistic? and it sketches me out a bit. probably overthinking here but whatever

rude... im not new.... im the best player ever....
who is it who feels opportunistic for "jumping on me" here?

This, on the other hand, I raise an eyebrow at, because marci never really gives a read on fire at any point in the game and the embedded quote is rather awkwardly hedgy. fire is maybe someone I've been ignoring too much for mostly seeming fine and reasonable.

[Gammagooey]

Gorilla do you still think Dunn is likely scum too or has that changed since yesterday? You commented on the first part of my *big thoughts* post yesterday but not on my idea that Dunn+Meuh weren't likely scum together. Do you think that's reasonable or dumb thinking on my part?

Meuh I've read over pretty much her whole iso now at this point and still feel conflicted. One thing I wanna bring up is that I think that Meuh & Dunn are pretty damn unlikely to be scum together. The gorilla pushes, and now the Fey push, and the way they behaved around marci is just too similar in a game where any scumbuddy could die at any time to Invictus and one person's read on you can end your life, and I think it makes a lot more sense that Meuh got blinded by her friend's play than Dunn. If I'm wrong about Dunn then I think she's at least a reasonable guess at scum, but also I think it's likely I was overly tunneled on her gorilla push - I still don't like it and it's probably going to be bouncing in the back of my brain every now and again until either she's deceased or the game's over, but if I put most of that aside, I do think her point about scum seeing the setup as more town-sided than it is and vice-versa was more likely to come from a town mindset than scum even if I don't agree with its conclusion of gorilla being scum, her marci questioning+mentions day 2 in particular were generally reasonable and definitely at least felt better than the random pointless pokes it felt like Dunn was giving to marci, and similar to her point on gorilla I like her post 1287 where she goes over what she thought was iffy about Cakez and reconsiders a bit that she may have disliked where Cakez's focus was but acknowledges that she's not sure how justified that was in retrospect.

Since I didn't respond to this earlier and you're mentioning it again

thats to say that i think gamma is wrong about kovu but i think its kinda towny that he thinks that. i also think that for similar reasons, he's wrong that meuh and dunn can't be scum together as he said in 2441. he used similar logic of how they were too closely aligned in their position throughout the game and... sometimes that just happens. i don't think thats a valid way of ruling out scum pairings. people don't look at someone after they flip and go, "hey, this other slot followed almost their exact same trajectory and position in the game, they must have been scum partners!" that just doesn't really happen. so im not even sure what the argument is for why two similarly positioned people can't be paired

It's typically not *hey a scumbuddy did literally the exact same thing*, it's usually *hey, X wagon was bad, there's probably at least one scum on it* or *there's scum at the start/middle/end of this wagon* or *Y is obvtown, one of the people pushing that has to be scum*

A lot of the time, they're dumb assumptions pulled out of someone's ass, but playing into those dumb assumptions will still make you more likely to be elim'd as scum, and decent players will try to avoid that by not doing making the exact same pushes as a scum partner. Hell, if you want to you could even call this an assumption I'm pulling out of my ass, but DGB in the old days used to try to not have any scum on the main D1 wagon at all and wacky shit like that to subvert what people expect scum to do, and I still think good players now will tend to avoid looking too similar to their partners just to avoid extra attention being put on them for having similar stances in case a flip or potential assumptions/ideas come up that could put multiple partners in danger at once.

[Meuh]

If you think I counter-claim my own partner's fakeclaim to get her elimmed then out myself a day later, that's on you I guess. It should be clear enough I'm not scum here if you stop to think rather than making blind guesses about mechanics.

(No, I don't have a good answer for why I was blocked and not Bell for instance).

Wait why would Bell ever get blocked here?

Pedit: Kovu is 0% scum and Fire has a chance of being scum, yeah

Me and Dunn being scum together sounds so funny actually

Also I get clinging on my read on Marci but also I have like nothing else to say on the topic I’ve explained it like 17 times

[gorilla]

I guess my problem with Fey-scum is, who's her teammate? If I recall from yesterday, all of Meuh, Dunn, and Gamma came out wanting to push her. You can theorize about bussing but I don't think her first move, down a teammate, is to tell her temmate to bus her? It doesn't seem likely to me. I don't know. but her lurking out is a bad feeling regardless. Maybe scum wanted to kill each other and I decided to throw the game but I thought the arguments against her were tenuous and I distrusted the people pushing her. Good luck on that one.

[Meuh]

i just don't think they're paired

and why can’t we both be town?
Like I get thinking we’re not S/S but I’m not following your logic

[gorilla]

Gorilla do you still think Dunn is likely scum too or has that changed since yesterday? You commented on the first part of my *big thoughts* post yesterday but not on my idea that Dunn+Meuh weren't likely scum together. Do you think that's reasonable or dumb thinking on my part?

Meuh I've read over pretty much her whole iso now at this point and still feel conflicted. One thing I wanna bring up is that I think that Meuh & Dunn are pretty damn unlikely to be scum together. The gorilla pushes, and now the Fey push, and the way they behaved around marci is just too similar in a game where any scumbuddy could die at any time to Invictus and one person's read on you can end your life, and I think it makes a lot more sense that Meuh got blinded by her friend's play than Dunn. If I'm wrong about Dunn then I think she's at least a reasonable guess at scum, but also I think it's likely I was overly tunneled on her gorilla push - I still don't like it and it's probably going to be bouncing in the back of my brain every now and again until either she's deceased or the game's over, but if I put most of that aside, I do think her point about scum seeing the setup as more town-sided than it is and vice-versa was more likely to come from a town mindset than scum even if I don't agree with its conclusion of gorilla being scum, her marci questioning+mentions day 2 in particular were generally reasonable and definitely at least felt better than the random pointless pokes it felt like Dunn was giving to marci, and similar to her point on gorilla I like her post 1287 where she goes over what she thought was iffy about Cakez and reconsiders a bit that she may have disliked where Cakez's focus was but acknowledges that she's not sure how justified that was in retrospect.

Since I didn't respond to this earlier and you're mentioning it again

thats to say that i think gamma is wrong about kovu but i think its kinda towny that he thinks that. i also think that for similar reasons, he's wrong that meuh and dunn can't be scum together as he said in 2441. he used similar logic of how they were too closely aligned in their position throughout the game and... sometimes that just happens. i don't think thats a valid way of ruling out scum pairings. people don't look at someone after they flip and go, "hey, this other slot followed almost their exact same trajectory and position in the game, they must have been scum partners!" that just doesn't really happen. so im not even sure what the argument is for why two similarly positioned people can't be paired

It's typically not *hey a scumbuddy did literally the exact same thing*, it's usually *hey, X wagon was bad, there's probably at least one scum on it* or *there's scum at the start/middle/end of this wagon* or *Y is obvtown, one of the people pushing that has to be scum*

A lot of the time, they're dumb assumptions pulled out of someone's ass, but playing into those dumb assumptions will still make you more likely to be elim'd as scum, and decent players will try to avoid that by not doing making the exact same pushes as a scum partner. Hell, if you want to you could even call this an assumption I'm pulling out of my ass, but DGB in the old days used to try to not have any scum on the main D1 wagon at all and wacky shit like that to subvert what people expect scum to do, and I still think good players now will tend to avoid looking too similar to their partners just to avoid extra attention being put on them for having similar stances in case a flip or potential assumptions/ideas come up that could put multiple partners in danger at once.

I think attempting to clear someone on reasoning like "scum wouldn't act so closely together" is really thin because it's easy to play around that and I feel like something fucky is going on.

I'm in a spiral right now because I did not expect the combination of the roleblock+cakez flipping town. My first reaction is indignation at Meuh who I believe has been setting me up as scum since Day 2, and the fact that I think she is most plausible as the scum being misread by the rest of the game who is going to be impossible to kill.

I went to reread Dunn and he's still incredibly scummy, yes. Maybe worse than Meuh, given how he's been engaging with the game.

[gorilla]

Also, there was a moment last phase where Dunn got pushed to E-1 and Meuh very coyly unvoted, and the wagon wound up dissolving as a result. That stuck in my mind as well.

[gorilla]

Vote Count 3.2

This is another one of those "Flavor VC way later" counts sorry everyone

Player	Votes
Dunnstral (6)	gorilla (2444), Kovu (2528), SirCakez (2535), Gammagooey (2535), fireisredsir (2553), Meuh (2554)
SirCakez (2)	Dunnstral (2264), Bell (2470)
Fey (1)	Enchant (2260)
Not Voting (3)	Rhyme and Reason (2404), Val89 (2486), Fey (2527)

With 12 players alive, it takes 7 votes to eliminate.

No elimination has been achieved. The Day 3 deadline is in (expired on 2022-06-21 01:00:00).

Spoiler: Postcount Tracker

Player	Daystart postcount	Reserves
Bell	170	10
Fey	67	10
fireisredsir	173	10
Dunnstral	61	10
Rhyme and Reason	52	10
Meuh	169	10
Val89	67	10
Gammagooey	58	10
Kovu	152	10
Enchant	55	10
SirCakez	117	10
gorilla	165	10

Posts are capped at 125 posts per slot per dayphase. Please see the Ruleset and FAQ for more information and tips on tracking your postcount.

Actually...

This is a worthy question. Look at the VC. 4 of the people not voting Dunn are town, and one is Fey. I don't think this necessarily clears Dunn, scum have incentive to bus in this setup, but it's worth examining people in that light.

[gorilla]

Like, don't all of you SR dunn? why are we defending dunn by pushing cakez instead? we ALL SR Dunn... and most of yall don't want to vote there?

I also think Cakez is scum and I'd rather resolve that first

Anyone else thinking Enchant is scum here? I don't really see a world where they aren't at this point

Scummy.

[gorilla]

Vote Count 3.2

This is another one of those "Flavor VC way later" counts sorry everyone

Player	Votes
Dunnstral (6)	gorilla (2444), Kovu (2528), SirCakez (2535), Gammagooey (2535), fireisredsir (2553), Meuh (2554)
SirCakez (2)	Dunnstral (2264), Bell (2470)
Fey (1)	Enchant (2260)
Not Voting (3)	Rhyme and Reason (2404), Val89 (2486), Fey (2527)

With 12 players alive, it takes 7 votes to eliminate.

No elimination has been achieved. The Day 3 deadline is in (expired on 2022-06-21 01:00:00).

Spoiler: Postcount Tracker

Player	Daystart postcount	Reserves
Bell	170	10
Fey	67	10
fireisredsir	173	10
Dunnstral	61	10
Rhyme and Reason	52	10
Meuh	169	10
Val89	67	10
Gammagooey	58	10
Kovu	152	10
Enchant	55	10
SirCakez	117	10
gorilla	165	10

Posts are capped at 125 posts per slot per dayphase. Please see the Ruleset and FAQ for more information and tips on tracking your postcount.

VOTE: Dunn yeah okay we can do this!

I also think Cakez is scum and I'd rather resolve that first

What's changed in the last 12 hours?

I'm a tesla fanatic

Aren’t we all?
Elon Musk

Also, I had a dream last night and for some reason I thought of this??
But instead of saying you’re a tesla fanatic, you said you “could invictus someone tonight” which sounded super fake…
So I started questioning you on it, it was very dramatic, the dream never got further than that though
But if my dreams tell me you’re suspicious, then you must be!

…But I’ll UNVOTE: to avoid day ending early.

I also think Cakez is scum and I'd rather resolve that first

What's changed in the last 12 hours?

Cakez got a bit townier and Kovu’s VCA pushed me a bit more in that direction.

(I'm stealing something fire said, but like, I noticed it too)

Sooo are all of yall ignoring the fact Dunn was at e-1 and enchant didn't hammer that? Like from enchant's POV, dunn like has to be maf here.. Enchant didn't want to hammer Dunn? ok, so enchant thinks dunn is town. then who are the 3 possible names for scum?

meuh, meuh and meuh

Didn't think about that, but yeah, Enchant is agenda motivated here and it shows

VOTE: Enchanr

We should just stop saying blah blah Invictus Enchant he will be taken care of and just kill him.

VOTE: Enchant sure

Note how Meuh makes hasty excuses to join the Dunn wagon, then pulls away and flips to pushing Enchant instead.