Mini Normal 2275: Roguelikes - Day 3: Endgame!


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Post Post #30 (isolation #0) » Thu Jun 23, 2022 11:16 pm

Post by Confidently Wrong »

VOTE: confidently wrong
This is mafia, I am very sure of it.
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Post Post #43 (isolation #1) » Fri Jun 24, 2022 5:22 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

i think fancy pants is definitely town
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Post Post #44 (isolation #2) » Fri Jun 24, 2022 5:22 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

VOTE: fancy pants
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Post Post #57 (isolation #3) » Fri Jun 24, 2022 8:31 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

In post 46, Irrelephant11 wrote:Eiralox I've decided you're town. If you had to decide now, is fancypants town, or scum trying to do towny-looking things?
I think they are town doing scummy looking things for sure
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Post Post #59 (isolation #4) » Fri Jun 24, 2022 8:31 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

this gimmick is fun
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Post Post #60 (isolation #5) » Fri Jun 24, 2022 8:32 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

In post 58, BlueBloodedToffee wrote:Why did you self vote?
I am convinced the player Confidently Wrong is scum
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Post Post #62 (isolation #6) » Fri Jun 24, 2022 8:32 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

I think Fancy Pants is town!
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Post Post #64 (isolation #7) » Fri Jun 24, 2022 8:46 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

):
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Post Post #68 (isolation #8) » Fri Jun 24, 2022 9:11 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

In post 67, BlueBloodedToffee wrote:We're elimming Confidently Wrong
Good idea as I'm in my scum meta!
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Post Post #73 (isolation #9) » Fri Jun 24, 2022 10:20 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

In post 71, BlueBloodedToffee wrote:Sure.

He self-voted (appears care free)

Two people hop on his self vote and create a wagon.

He ignores it. If it wasn't some sort of basic reaction test, what exactly was the point of it? Except to appear 'care-free and townie'
it was for a joke, to be honest. I myself do not care for RVS votes, they do not phase me.
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Post Post #75 (isolation #10) » Fri Jun 24, 2022 10:32 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

I had already found fancy pants lightly scummy but I wanted to do my bit :P
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Post Post #78 (isolation #11) » Fri Jun 24, 2022 10:42 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

In post 76, BlueBloodedToffee wrote:
In post 22, Malakittens wrote:VOTE: bbt

Hi bae

Who do I sheep
We kill the scums
Together
I missed this <3

We're elimming Confidently Wrong.
You seem confident in your assessment of me
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Post Post #80 (isolation #12) » Fri Jun 24, 2022 10:52 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

No <3
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Post Post #87 (isolation #13) » Fri Jun 24, 2022 11:26 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

I already explained it as it was a mindmeld with elephant person
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Post Post #89 (isolation #14) » Fri Jun 24, 2022 12:19 pm

Post by Confidently Wrong »

In post 88, Shoshin wrote:Fancy seems town.
Based on?
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Post Post #92 (isolation #15) » Fri Jun 24, 2022 1:19 pm

Post by Confidently Wrong »

In post 91, Fredrick A Campbell wrote:Won't be online:
25 June 2022, Saturday, UTC+0, 0300 to 0600, 1303 to 2303
26 June 2022, Sunday, UTC+0, 1303 to 2303
27 June 2022, Monday, UTC+0, 1303 to 2303
28 June 2022, Tuesday, UTC+0, 0400 to 0600, 1303 to 2303
I won't be online at those times because I will be busy with your parental units at those times
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Post Post #96 (isolation #16) » Fri Jun 24, 2022 2:25 pm

Post by Confidently Wrong »

In post 93, Cat Scratch Fever wrote:
In post 87, Confidently Wrong wrote:
I already explained it as it was a mindmeld with elephant person
How was it a mindmeld? Irrelephant did not state a scumread on FancyPants before you voted for Fancy.
see:
In post 46, Irrelephant11 wrote:Eiralox I've decided you're town. If you had to decide now, is fancypants town, or scum trying to do towny-looking things?
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Post Post #97 (isolation #17) » Fri Jun 24, 2022 2:25 pm

Post by Confidently Wrong »

i assume this implies irrelephent holds the latter view judging by the vote that follows several posts later.
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Post Post #100 (isolation #18) » Fri Jun 24, 2022 2:31 pm

Post by Confidently Wrong »

In post 98, Cat Scratch Fever wrote:Why phrase it as a mindmeld if you thought Fancy was scum if you arrived at that conclusion independently?
The reasoning was similar.
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Post Post #101 (isolation #19) » Fri Jun 24, 2022 2:31 pm

Post by Confidently Wrong »

I was under the impression that is what the term means
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Post Post #102 (isolation #20) » Fri Jun 24, 2022 2:32 pm

Post by Confidently Wrong »

In post 99, Lowell wrote:Hell yeah!

vote catscratch
boomer alert
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Post Post #108 (isolation #21) » Fri Jun 24, 2022 2:44 pm

Post by Confidently Wrong »

I believe it, but I have my sights sent on a pair of pants
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Post Post #110 (isolation #22) » Fri Jun 24, 2022 2:49 pm

Post by Confidently Wrong »

Respectfully, I disagree and I shall continue on my path
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Post Post #111 (isolation #23) » Fri Jun 24, 2022 2:50 pm

Post by Confidently Wrong »

actually maybe you are correct

VOTE: CSF

boomers annoyingly know what theyre talking about sometimes

i would know, i play with pooky
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Post Post #114 (isolation #24) » Fri Jun 24, 2022 3:15 pm

Post by Confidently Wrong »

no questions, you are the one who provides information.
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Post Post #123 (isolation #25) » Sat Jun 25, 2022 3:38 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

Good morning.
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Post Post #124 (isolation #26) » Sat Jun 25, 2022 3:38 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

In post 121, Cat Scratch Fever wrote:And that's scummy because...
Because
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Post Post #127 (isolation #27) » Sat Jun 25, 2022 3:41 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

Wtf what about me
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Post Post #131 (isolation #28) » Sat Jun 25, 2022 3:46 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

In post 129, Irrelephant11 wrote:Confidently wrong you can be elimmed right after we get your scum partner cat scratch
:igmeou:
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Post Post #132 (isolation #29) » Sat Jun 25, 2022 3:47 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

In post 102, Confidently Wrong wrote:
In post 99, Lowell wrote:Hell yeah!

vote catscratch
boomer alert
In post 108, Confidently Wrong wrote:I believe it, but I have my sights sent on a pair of pants
In post 111, Confidently Wrong wrote:actually maybe you are correct

VOTE: CSF

boomers annoyingly know what theyre talking about sometimes

i would know, i play with pooky
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Post Post #141 (isolation #30) » Sat Jun 25, 2022 6:49 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

In post 136, Lowell wrote:Shosh and pants doing a “let’s performatively say opposite things on a thing that doesn’t matter” gambit. Love it.

Cats still, though. Someone hammer
didnt you literally call pants town like 2 pages ago
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Post Post #154 (isolation #31) » Sat Jun 25, 2022 1:31 pm

Post by Confidently Wrong »

In post 152, Fredrick A Campbell wrote:VOTE: Confidently Wrong
engage me
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Post Post #157 (isolation #32) » Sat Jun 25, 2022 3:58 pm

Post by Confidently Wrong »

VOTE: Fredrick

I do not play with secrets
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Post Post #195 (isolation #33) » Sun Jun 26, 2022 4:47 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

im gay
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Post Post #196 (isolation #34) » Sun Jun 26, 2022 4:48 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

This game feels hard but thats probably because i have meta on like none of you and those i do i am still bad at reading
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Post Post #197 (isolation #35) » Sun Jun 26, 2022 4:48 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

Wait i was trolling, loftwing is town
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Post Post #200 (isolation #36) » Sun Jun 26, 2022 9:35 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

VOTE: Mala

I want pressure on this slot so i can start solving the game from slots i feel Comfortable solving fast
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Post Post #202 (isolation #37) » Sun Jun 26, 2022 9:54 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

In post 183, kennyk wrote:
In post 179, BlueBloodedToffee wrote:But what you posted wasn't relevant. You posted a bunch of stuff but didn't actually give any reads, so the question is this; why post it at all?
I never claimed it to be reads. Just my impressions about things that were relevant in my eyes. Like Irrelephant believing Shoshin is town without giving a reason why.

It was just things that I think are noteworthy. They were and are not enough to make it a read in my eyes.

And btw.: the quoted post doesn't contain a read either. Why did you post it at all?
In post 185, kennyk wrote:
In post 180, Shoshin wrote:Kenny is town.

More votes on Malcolm, please.
And here is another "X is town" post without any reason. This time it is Shoshin on the giving and not the receiving end.

Mind to share, why you think I am town?

And why voteing Malcolm (except maybe for not posting much)?
In post 186, kennyk wrote:
In post 184, BlueBloodedToffee wrote:My post wasn't intended to look like I was doing stuff.

Your post is posted under the guise of actually contributing.
No it was not. FancyPants asked me about my thoughts. And I did post those thoughts. They aren't much in regard of reads, but those were the thoughts I have about this game.
it definitely wasn't the fact that he cited kenny's post that happened between then and there that you can freely read, malcom, right.
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Post Post #203 (isolation #38) » Sun Jun 26, 2022 9:55 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

reading and interpreting posts hard, assumptions easy
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Post Post #272 (isolation #39) » Mon Jun 27, 2022 7:11 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

In post 263, Eiralox wrote:okfor reference all those not mentioned by loweel and 'all scum proabably" are : (slow clap for da lucky winners folks)


BlueBloodedToffee
Eiralox
Loftwing
Confidently Wrong
Shoshin
Fredrick A Campbell
Whats my prize? I hope its not a night 1 kill again
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Post Post #273 (isolation #40) » Mon Jun 27, 2022 7:12 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

In post 271, FancyPants wrote:OK.

Still down to lynch Kenny, I could probably be convinced to switch to Loft, we have a week left but my two main suspects basically refuse to make any reads so I'm basically down to just hang them now. I might do a reread and some meta diving when I'm more motivated.
Lynch is against site rules to use to refer to the elimination
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Post Post #274 (isolation #41) » Mon Jun 27, 2022 7:13 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

In post 258, Irrelephant11 wrote:I'll go first then

FancyPants
BBT, Frederick, Malcolm
Shoshin, Malakittens, Lowell, Eiralox
Confidently Wrong, Cat Scratch Fever --- null
Loftwing
kenny

Hmmm I have too many townreads probably
I had you as possible scum until.this post - and theres never a thing as too many townreads unless you cannot have scum fit outside them
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Post Post #275 (isolation #42) » Mon Jun 27, 2022 7:14 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

In post 250, MalcolmTucker wrote:
In post 246, Irrelephant11 wrote:
In post 224, MalcolmTucker wrote:I'm not even sure it's that you're playing "weirdly" though, it's just that you're incredibly willing to hand out a free townread early on without much of a reason for doing so. I understand meta will often come into games and that's fine, but your posts could easily read as an opportunistic attempt to cosy up to Shoshin and get on her side early on if she's town and you're not.
In post 208, Irrelephant11 wrote:I will probably explain better at a later date.
In post 224, MalcolmTucker wrote:Your townblock, for what it's worth, gives me a similar fear...we're not that long into the game, I'm wary to put too much faith and trust in anyone at this stage.
This is fair. Does it make you think I'm scum trying to prop up a partner? Or just town who's likely to be wrong? Because, if the latter, it's only dangerous if you think one of my three townreads is scum. Let me know if you think so at any point.
Realistically I don't think we'll manage a consensus 5-6 person townblock with 0 scum. But I do think we can make one with, at most, 1 scum. And that's a pretty valuable potential town tool.

Like I get your paranoia but do you disagree with the concept of a townblock or just that i've picked three names already?
I don't disagree with the idea of a townblock in general, I'm just not too keen on ruling out certain players as mafia early on in D1. I don't particularly scum-read anyone you've put in there so far but we're only a couple of days into the game, ideally nobody should be completely free from pressure.

My gut-feeling right now is one of you/Shoshin could be mafia. Shoshin's push on me was weak and opportunistic, but if they're town and you know they're wrong could be a useful pocket for you, as I've stated. I'm liking your engagement a lot more this page though.
They're both town
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Post Post #280 (isolation #43) » Mon Jun 27, 2022 8:22 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

In post 279, Irrelephant11 wrote:
In post 274, Confidently Wrong wrote:
In post 258, Irrelephant11 wrote:I'll go first then

FancyPants
BBT, Frederick, Malcolm
Shoshin, Malakittens, Lowell, Eiralox
Confidently Wrong, Cat Scratch Fever --- null
Loftwing
kenny

Hmmm I have too many townreads probably
I had you as possible scum until.this post - and theres never a thing as too many townreads unless you cannot have scum fit outside them
what about this post flipped your read on me?
Stating you have too many townreads with a list that big, also had that confirmed to me when i started reading back further
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Post Post #286 (isolation #44) » Mon Jun 27, 2022 8:42 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

Csf locktown
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Post Post #287 (isolation #45) » Mon Jun 27, 2022 8:43 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

Still gonna tunnel mala until she towntells
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Post Post #295 (isolation #46) » Mon Jun 27, 2022 8:53 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

loft is town
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Post Post #296 (isolation #47) » Mon Jun 27, 2022 8:54 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

lets sort by post count
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Post Post #305 (isolation #48) » Mon Jun 27, 2022 9:04 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

In post 301, FancyPants wrote:
In post 281, Cat Scratch Fever wrote: Kenny's first post was bad, but the rest of his interactions with FancyPants feels TvT. In particular,
I feel like pushing FancyPants, who I think several people have said are town, feels like going against the grain in a way that I don't think new scum would do.
I actually agree with this voting me was the most town thing Kenny has done, however I continually pushed him on why I was scum and he never came up with a satisfactory answer.

Almost everyone in this game has made one post that is townie, this is Kenny being accidentally town. Hang him.

@CW, I know you don't like explaining usually but I'm trying to figure the game, would you do me a favour and explain why you think Loft is town?
Vibes and meta baybee
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Post Post #306 (isolation #49) » Mon Jun 27, 2022 9:05 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

In post 299, Irrelephant11 wrote:CW I'm very curious who you are but I'm also enjoying the mystery so don't feel like you need to share. But also I still can't read you really
We have never played together. At least on your current account
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Post Post #319 (isolation #50) » Mon Jun 27, 2022 9:25 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

In post 317, MalcolmTucker wrote:As an example on the above readslist, Mala has made a total of five posts so far, most of which were incredibly brief. Anyone claiming they have a completely confident read on that slot so far is bluffing or lying. I'm not going to pretend I have a confident view on whether Mala is town/scum just for some cred from a player who might be scum anyway.
believe it or not people can make reads on people with under 10 posts that are confident and accurate. i know you have little confidence but if you actually committed to reads more you'd put better pressure on scum with your play. that is to say i find your play matching your town play more than anything.
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Post Post #329 (isolation #51) » Mon Jun 27, 2022 11:46 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

i cant wait to be n1'd judging by how things are going
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Post Post #330 (isolation #52) » Mon Jun 27, 2022 11:47 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

i remind people not to only look at whats under their nose and avoid the trap of only being able to FOS what has been talking recently

out of sight out of mind is a powerful scum technique that can easily be countered by simply not allowing inactive players to slide under the radar
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Post Post #332 (isolation #53) » Mon Jun 27, 2022 1:22 pm

Post by Confidently Wrong »

i saw people start voting Lowell/Loftwing
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Post Post #365 (isolation #54) » Tue Jun 28, 2022 8:50 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

Sup gamers
Did we find scum yet
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Post Post #367 (isolation #55) » Tue Jun 28, 2022 8:54 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

I see no evidence of the sort
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Post Post #370 (isolation #56) » Tue Jun 28, 2022 8:56 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

Eira stonks falling
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Post Post #371 (isolation #57) » Tue Jun 28, 2022 8:57 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

VOTE: kenny
Yolo
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Post Post #373 (isolation #58) » Tue Jun 28, 2022 8:59 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

In post 372, Eiralox wrote:Falling stonks mean little if one has reached inner peace.
L+ratio
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Post Post #376 (isolation #59) » Tue Jun 28, 2022 9:14 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

meta meta meta
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Post Post #378 (isolation #60) » Tue Jun 28, 2022 12:07 pm

Post by Confidently Wrong »

In post 377, Lowell wrote:God help me I’m starting to pull a town read on Malcolm. His last few posts have convinced (?) me (?), though I’m not so far gone that I can’t admit it’s based on tone, not content.

Also I have the ‘Rona. Sadface.
which posts and what about the tone?
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Post Post #385 (isolation #61) » Tue Jun 28, 2022 4:45 pm

Post by Confidently Wrong »

VOTE: lowell
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Post Post #386 (isolation #62) » Tue Jun 28, 2022 4:45 pm

Post by Confidently Wrong »

In post 380, Malakittens wrote:i lowkey ran outta steam
Sorry for the rand
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Post Post #387 (isolation #63) » Tue Jun 28, 2022 11:12 pm

Post by Confidently Wrong »

can we get more votecounts because the last one was literally 4 days ago
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Post Post #402 (isolation #64) » Wed Jun 29, 2022 4:57 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

Loftwing is town, unvote them and vote scumclaimed lowell
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Post Post #421 (isolation #65) » Wed Jun 29, 2022 6:50 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

In post 406, FancyPants wrote:@CW, This is the part where I ask you why Loftwing is town - you ignore me and I don't change my mind.
The claimed mafia lowell spewed them town
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Post Post #429 (isolation #66) » Wed Jun 29, 2022 8:19 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

In post 423, Irrelephant11 wrote:
In post 421, Confidently Wrong wrote:
In post 406, FancyPants wrote:@CW, This is the part where I ask you why Loftwing is town - you ignore me and I don't change my mind.
The claimed mafia lowell spewed them town
remind me the scumcase for lowell?
The interaction regarding malcom was essentially outting
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Post Post #430 (isolation #67) » Wed Jun 29, 2022 8:20 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

Whats funny was that i changed my read on fancy bc of lowell so cheers thanks for the free town
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Post Post #431 (isolation #68) » Wed Jun 29, 2022 8:21 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

Mala/Lowell/eiralox is a team I'd lock in rn gth

Its probably wrong but i am confident of at least 2
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Post Post #433 (isolation #69) » Wed Jun 29, 2022 8:47 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

Lowell was mad bc he thought malcom would be an easy mislim
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Post Post #434 (isolation #70) » Wed Jun 29, 2022 8:48 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

If lowell is mafia idk how you can say any of those 3 are scum
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Post Post #437 (isolation #71) » Wed Jun 29, 2022 9:03 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

Well I'm confident enough in lowell that I'd veto anyone i believe is spewed town off him, and i even actively townread loft off meta and malcom as well. Kenny i refuse to comment on because he did fool me recently in a somewhat embarassing way.
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Post Post #438 (isolation #72) » Wed Jun 29, 2022 9:04 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

I think Lowells reaction to a wagon starting on him however should be indicative enough that he isn't solving the game and is self pressing in a scummy way
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Post Post #445 (isolation #73) » Wed Jun 29, 2022 9:52 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

In post 442, kennyk wrote:
In post 437, Confidently Wrong wrote:Well I'm confident enough in lowell that I'd veto anyone i believe is spewed town off him, and i even actively townread loft off meta and malcom as well. Kenny i refuse to comment on because he did fool me recently in a somewhat embarassing way.
??? OK ???

When and how so?
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this alt isnt exactly a secret but ive decided not to claim it just because most people here would benefit 0 from knowing it.
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Post Post #446 (isolation #74) » Wed Jun 29, 2022 9:52 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

In post 443, Eiralox wrote:VOTE: confidently wrong with a ten foot pole.

lowell i'm ok with. you don't xpand tho. fact that u have mala on scum list trips me. mala straight null, ill vote there cos inactive but i don't see how u can form any reads. there's nothing. so having mala in a team with lowell/eira..... i mean CF maybe ur trolling here but D1 if I name three ppl scum i do so with reasons. meh.


me, well, bring your case. tell me why and how eira is scummy.
scummy omgus m'lord
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Post Post #447 (isolation #75) » Wed Jun 29, 2022 9:53 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

i have reasons to townread every other slot and an inactive mala who doesnt post anything game related at all is not null - it leans scum.
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Post Post #449 (isolation #76) » Wed Jun 29, 2022 10:01 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

your reads you posted earlier feel very half hearted and ingenuine


and your treatment of lowell felt very distancy - in the sense that you are even currently willing to vote me over lowell after never expressing an actual townread there - and also stated you were basing scumreads off that slot.


all in all it seems you are trying to flip townies while positioning yourself as having your partner Lowell in your scumreads to later try to claim you pushed them all along.
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Post Post #452 (isolation #77) » Wed Jun 29, 2022 10:05 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

In post 451, Irrelephant11 wrote:I find 448 illegible
because its probably a desperate attempt to shade me but now eira is caught realizing their positioning is absurd and outting for them as well.

mala might be town but Eira/Lowell is a core i believe in
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Post Post #456 (isolation #78) » Wed Jun 29, 2022 10:09 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

Whats your lowell read


please explain your read progression from the first moment you mentioned my slot - that would be the point where you unvoted Lowell.
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Post Post #458 (isolation #79) » Wed Jun 29, 2022 10:09 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

sorry I made that unclear that's 2 seperate requests:

how are you reading lowell now?

and how has your read on my slot evolved since you mentioned my name? what reasoning was there?
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Post Post #460 (isolation #80) » Wed Jun 29, 2022 10:11 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

i townread people quickly regardless of what alignment i roll

and I do it as scum only because I do it as town too.

I find extending trust early for flimsy reasons makes scum sweat more and also comes across as townier when i do roll scum.

What is lazy and easy for scum to do is say everyone is null and be unable to commit to a read.
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Post Post #461 (isolation #81) » Wed Jun 29, 2022 10:11 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

VOTE: Eiralox

Have it your way. I offered the easy way, let's do the hard way.
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Post Post #466 (isolation #82) » Wed Jun 29, 2022 10:19 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

I purely shifted off you because one of my townreads (irrelephant) voted you and I saw an opportunity to amp up the pressure.

And I don't think you can really try to frame me as defensive - even though that isn't an actual tell, considering your entire reasoning for voting me, regardless of what alignment you are, is obviously that I listed you in a solve.
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Post Post #469 (isolation #83) » Wed Jun 29, 2022 10:32 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

I'm sure its totally towny that you voted and now are making up reasons to justify it that are not what it obviously was.
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Post Post #472 (isolation #84) » Wed Jun 29, 2022 10:35 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

In post 471, DkKoba wrote:What interactions are scum indicative? please share with the class
ope this is my main lmao
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Post Post #474 (isolation #85) » Wed Jun 29, 2022 10:50 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

those are not logical reasons
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Post Post #476 (isolation #86) » Wed Jun 29, 2022 10:53 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

In post 475, FancyPants wrote:
In post 467, BlueBloodedToffee wrote:Alright, where are we at in this game?

Slowly reading and catching up. Have we got a recent VC at all?
I'm fairly sure this is right (our mod is VLA for now)

Unofficial Vote Count

Loftwing (2): FancyPants, Lowell
Malakittens (2): Fredrick A Campbell, Loftwing
Confidently Wrong (2): Eiralox, Irrelephant11
Lowell (1): Cat Scratch Fever
kennyk (1): BlueBloodedToffee
MalcolmTucker (1): Shoshin
BlueBloodedTofee (1): Malakittens
FancyPants (1): kennyk
Eiralox (1) : Confidently Wrong


Not Voting (2): MalcolmTucker
With 13 alive, it takes 7 to eliminate.

I'm a bit busy tonight so can't comment on the recent content other than I like the activity will comment tomorrow.

Also @DrKoba, why are you here? Have you replaced somebody?
irrelephant is voting for eira with me

and dkkoba is me if you read literally 1 post below
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Post Post #479 (isolation #87) » Wed Jun 29, 2022 10:59 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

In post 478, Eiralox wrote:
In post 474, Confidently Wrong wrote:those are not logical reasons


what a response. you haven't offered anything of note imo. i think the lloyd attack is the only thing of substance, imma yet to study that. you are way to bouncy with your votes and townreads and they don't correlate. questioning my logic is one thing, not directly addressing my points is another.

and i'm not feeling so good about @Irrelephant now. maybe they're offline, maybe not, but if u vote someone be there to back it up. i hope they can weigh in on their reasoning in their own time.
i could do my usual and go on and mock your reasons with examples of what youve listed from confirmed townies in other games to show how ridiculous the reasoning is but I decided to save the trouble and simply call them out for what they are: illogical reasons.
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Post Post #486 (isolation #88) » Wed Jun 29, 2022 11:18 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

In post 483, MalcolmTucker wrote:I think Eiralox is town from the past couple of pages.
Why?
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Post Post #488 (isolation #89) » Wed Jun 29, 2022 11:21 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

In post 481, MalcolmTucker wrote:VOTE: Loftwing

Subject to change but time to cast a vote somewhere. Not confident their opportunistic jumping around from wagon to wagon is townie. The vote on Mala felt particularly opportunistic as I said earlier on.
I think fundamentally the reasons you are presenting for reading people is flawed and not consistent(results wise) in any way.

So I envision it shall be difficult to convince you similarly to the last time we played together.


Jumping around wagon to wagon is not a scum behavior.
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Post Post #489 (isolation #90) » Wed Jun 29, 2022 11:23 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

The assumption that Mala is town rather than a PoE'd scum is quite concerning to see because it is going to lead to terrible conclusions like I already see based on how people are treating the slot.

Mala is probably mafia in my eyes and to defend that slot for bad reasons is not helpful at all. Stop it.

If they're town you can be confident they'll post out of it and show it. Defending them preemptively when clearly their posts have shown 0 urgency to solve or play and should be *at best* null to you is very silly.
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Post Post #490 (isolation #91) » Wed Jun 29, 2022 11:25 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

personally i think the game is solved fmpov

with [Lowell/Eira/Mala] as the most likely team

and then as bonus PoE: [BBT/kennyk]

Every other player I feel a confident enough reason to townread them.

kennyk is also never paired with Lowell
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Post Post #492 (isolation #92) » Wed Jun 29, 2022 11:29 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

And to ellaborate more on Eira - when reading their posts it comes off as someone trying to seem confident about their push on me while trying to hide any evidence of how they reached that read - the confidence comes off as completely fraudulent and the reasoning comes off as amended after the fact.

Eira likely decided they need to push me for wincon probably because I am correct in my reads to some degree IMO and this is why we see this mad dash to try to case me in such a way after OMGUSing me.

Frankly it is shocking that no one else sees what I see in that Eira is basically howling in the way they have been caught in a very poorly spun web of lies.

I implore people to begin at Eira's posts about lowell and see how they progressed into pushing me - I think you can find there is a strong agenda feel to it.
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Post Post #494 (isolation #93) » Wed Jun 29, 2022 11:30 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

In post 491, Eiralox wrote:strange that youre only now typing longer than single or double sentences CW >.<


i got mah eyes in u
You made the mistake of flipping my WIM switch, which turns on as soon as anyone makes a shitpush at me.
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Post Post #496 (isolation #94) » Wed Jun 29, 2022 11:31 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

In post 493, Eiralox wrote:i mean i've affirmed my willingnes to vote mala and ive said lowell is in the bottom of my pile so this entire reasoning here(along with mala inactive total null) for a team is... what? just the three u find most scummy?



game solved well played bravo
You say that but you did not vote Mala with me when I was voting there for pressure nor did you maintain your vote on lowell. you jumped to this uncharitable assumption that I must be scum *merely for including you alongside 2 other people you claim to also find not town*
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Post Post #497 (isolation #95) » Wed Jun 29, 2022 11:31 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

I am someone who reads every post and remembers nearly everything in a game. Nothing slips by me unless I replace in late.
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Post Post #498 (isolation #96) » Wed Jun 29, 2022 11:32 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

In post 496, Confidently Wrong wrote:
In post 493, Eiralox wrote:i mean i've affirmed my willingnes to vote mala and ive said lowell is in the bottom of my pile so this entire reasoning here(along with mala inactive total null) for a team is... what? just the three u find most scummy?



game solved well played bravo
You say that but you did not vote Mala with me when I was voting there for pressure nor did you maintain your vote on lowell. you jumped to this uncharitable assumption that I must be scum *merely for including you alongside 2 other people you claim to also find not town*
To add on to that - You voted me *as I was voting Lowell*
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Post Post #504 (isolation #97) » Wed Jun 29, 2022 12:00 pm

Post by Confidently Wrong »

I don't think Eira's thought process was towny but I understand that it can be difficult to see what I'm seeing since it is deeper than surface level in that you have to cross examine multiple points from them to see it and that the independent parts can seem towny.

Let's not allow people to refuge in audacity.
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Post Post #505 (isolation #98) » Wed Jun 29, 2022 12:01 pm

Post by Confidently Wrong »

In post 500, Eiralox wrote:
In post 496, Confidently Wrong wrote:
In post 493, Eiralox wrote:i mean i've affirmed my willingnes to vote mala and ive said lowell is in the bottom of my pile so this entire reasoning here(along with mala inactive total null) for a team is... what? just the three u find most scummy?



game solved well played bravo
You say that but you did not vote Mala with me when I was voting there for pressure nor did you maintain your vote on lowell. you jumped to this uncharitable assumption that I must be scum *merely for including you alongside 2 other people you claim to also find not town*
i never scumread u dolt!


read and remeber everything my ass i said im not scumreading u and alll 12 are still null, nut im feeling way worse about u now then i did back then.
this is possibly the towniest thing they have posted if anything and its because they show a clueless attitude that could indicate lack of TMI on my slot.
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Post Post #506 (isolation #99) » Wed Jun 29, 2022 12:05 pm

Post by Confidently Wrong »

Eira, do you have mafia games elsewhere I could peruse, particularly ones where you are of the mafia alignment? You have a striking lack of games on this site and it would help me to compare your mindset in other games to this one.
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Post Post #507 (isolation #100) » Wed Jun 29, 2022 12:07 pm

Post by Confidently Wrong »

Subject: Newbie 1733: Mafia Boot Camp (GAME OVER)
Eiralox wrote:secondpassing:

Spoiler:
#22 shadow vote on serra. Achieves nothing, shadow vote meaningless as serra not at L-1 or L-2

#26 states reason for not voting serra = phone.

#43 shadow vote on keyen, but votes MOD(not serra or anyone else, which would achieve more)
Three possibilities:
1-Not putting keyen at L-2 so that scumteam do not force hammer
2-Not putting scumpartner at L-2 so that townies can force hammer(unlikely that townies would force hammer this early)
3-By not putting Keyen at L-2, attempts to show that they are town(Look, I won't put someone at L-2, risking forced hammer, therefore I am town)
[3 likelier than 2 atm, unless 2 was done under erroneous reasoning]{Alignment of keyen irrelevant point 3, unless a hybrid of 2 & 3

#47 states shadow vote on keyen is a bad vote after Lii votes Key
#48 Immediately votes Lii for putting Key at L-2

#91 Case against Serra and Lii. Perhaps continuation of #22
Faulty reasoning, Li never put Key at L-1 due to shadow vote.

"No scum would be wagonned to L-1, key prob town" Definite defense of Key, using false reasoning.
Whether the shadow vote on Key was made just to launch 'L-1' attack on someone(here Lii) is to be seen

#93 Defensive. Meaningless question: Avatar, real life actions.
Ignored all the discussion between #48 and #91, would expect town to weigh in on their opinions regarding Key, even after the 'not scum due to L-1' statement.

OVERALL:
Moderately defensive. Only voted when Lii put Key at L-2. Meaningless allusions to avatar choice. Ignored discussions on Key, while placing them at prob town using fualty reasoning. Attacks on others by ways of faulty reasoning.



Sp/Key patterns:
Spoiler:
Keyen:
#74 votes SP, wanting a clarification on Lii vote. This follows Lii's unvote of Key.

#94 Key unvotes SP directly after SP posts. Gives no reason.

keyen seems to be young of age(13), though I do note a distinct difference in tone in this game than that of their previous one, Simply put, the feeling I get from their only other game is more sincere, more proactive and more town orientated. This game he is far more reactive than proactive.


Right now SP/Key scumteam is the likeliest one for me. The only detraction here is the Key vote on Lii, though that may be a tactic to obscure scum patterns.

I want to interact with both of them more however, especially regarding my above analysis.

I am not going to put keyenpeydeeat L-1 this early on, I want to hear his thoughts first.

So: VOTE: secondpassing
like when I'm looking at this old newbie game you seem to show much more confidence in stating reads early on, even with less players.

It has been 6 years, I cede so I am not taking this strongly - but when put into contrast with this game and how I interpret your play - it does make me want to confbias it as evidence, if you understand.
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Post Post #510 (isolation #101) » Wed Jun 29, 2022 12:11 pm

Post by Confidently Wrong »

A classic tactic for less experienced mafia is to try to mimic towniness by trying to loudly proclaim how unsure they are of people's alignments to LAMIST their way into seeming uninformed. That is what I take away from Eira's play this game so far and when compared to previous times they were town it is a contrast that I doubt would exist if they randed town here.

I ask those that have stated they found Eira's play townie to reconsider with the statements I've presented. At the very least, be open to increasing pressure on the slot to make more solidified stances.
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Post Post #512 (isolation #102) » Wed Jun 29, 2022 12:11 pm

Post by Confidently Wrong »

In post 509, Eiralox wrote:
In post 507, Confidently Wrong wrote:
like when I'm looking at this old newbie game you seem to show much more confidence in stating reads early on, even with less players.

It has been 6 years, I cede so I am not taking this strongly - but when put into contrast with this game and how I interpret your play - it does make me want to confbias it as evidence, if you understand.
i told u i don't give a fuck about games that are not the current one. no further comment, spare urself sum time in da future.
I care because this game is about analyzing patterns and those from previous games matter.

Tell me, why should I find you towny?
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Post Post #514 (isolation #103) » Wed Jun 29, 2022 12:13 pm

Post by Confidently Wrong »

In post 513, Eiralox wrote:
In post 510, Confidently Wrong wrote:A classic tactic for less experienced mafia is to try to mimic towniness by trying to loudly proclaim how unsure they are of people's alignments to LAMIST their way into seeming uninformed. That is what I take away from Eira's play this game so far and when compared to previous times they were town it is a contrast that I doubt would exist if they randed town here.

I ask those that have stated they found Eira's play townie to reconsider with the statements I've presented. At the very least, be open to increasing pressure on the slot to make more solidified stances.

fuck no. i rarely townread anyone without a flip. i prefer to keep things grey. thats it. if that doesnt make u happy 2 bad.
That's not what your limited sample of completed town games suggest to me
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Post Post #515 (isolation #104) » Wed Jun 29, 2022 12:15 pm

Post by Confidently Wrong »

I've never seen a townie so insistant on saying "everyone is null!!"

but the issue is.. you treated mala as someone to defend by using it as reasoning to vote me. so they aren't truly null, theyre someone you wish to defend no matter how soft the defense might be.

so forgive me if I do not believe you.
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Post Post #517 (isolation #105) » Wed Jun 29, 2022 12:18 pm

Post by Confidently Wrong »

Ok then die.
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Post Post #520 (isolation #106) » Wed Jun 29, 2022 12:20 pm

Post by Confidently Wrong »

It's called having the skill to townread people and PoE them, I can share a game where i did exactly that to a person who did indeed flip scum and posted less than mala did so far.

But I hear you are allergic to proof.
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Post Post #521 (isolation #107) » Wed Jun 29, 2022 12:22 pm

Post by Confidently Wrong »

Your posting in your previous play showed a lot more depth and actual thought that is absent here. I refuse to believe you regressed since then. You refuse to discuss meta likely because you are scum and it incriminates you.
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Post Post #522 (isolation #108) » Wed Jun 29, 2022 12:24 pm

Post by Confidently Wrong »

If you are town, then waving away the very things I have presented and asked for your side so you can explain would actually help you. Being stubborn and annoying will get us nowhere as I have the pull to get anyone I FOS eliminated in most games.
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Post Post #523 (isolation #109) » Wed Jun 29, 2022 12:27 pm

Post by Confidently Wrong »

If you think I am mafia, let me see you make analysis. If you are town, you will be able to show this. I have posted many things - if you think I am mafia you can very easily point to where I have scumtold and why.

Although it will be quite the difficult task since I am town, especially if you have TMI that I am town. But if you are town there's the magical confbias that should help you at least show some genuine thought flow.


If the things you cited about me are what you think are actual scumtells, then I do not believe you and shall simply bury you in the ground.
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Post Post #524 (isolation #110) » Wed Jun 29, 2022 12:28 pm

Post by Confidently Wrong »

To the other players: my apologies for flooding the game, but I have caught a scum for your benefit so I believe it repays the debt of making the game a bit harder to read.
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Post Post #526 (isolation #111) » Wed Jun 29, 2022 12:33 pm

Post by Confidently Wrong »

I decline comment on that front because discussion of games in progress is not allowed.
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Post Post #527 (isolation #112) » Wed Jun 29, 2022 12:36 pm

Post by Confidently Wrong »

I will say that my read will not change unless you start showing the depth I expect to see that you as town would show.
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Post Post #533 (isolation #113) » Wed Jun 29, 2022 1:08 pm

Post by Confidently Wrong »

Can you not imply I am a nazi for asking you to provide depth in your thoughts? I am polish and I find that extremely offensive.
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Post Post #534 (isolation #114) » Wed Jun 29, 2022 1:09 pm

Post by Confidently Wrong »

In post 529, Cat Scratch Fever wrote:I guess Eira wasn't scumreading you. Idk his posts are hard to grok

I still think he has a towny tone
Just look at how shallow their thought process is, and compare it to their newbie games, that even though they were years ago, there shouldnt be suddenly shallowness here.
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Post Post #537 (isolation #115) » Wed Jun 29, 2022 1:12 pm

Post by Confidently Wrong »

In post 359, Eiralox wrote:fancypants iso: feels town. throws a broad net.

scum! arguments that they tunnel on loftwing and kenny, but that's not strong enough a theme for eira to be concerned about atm.

out of the 12 players in my null pile, pants is greenish.
In post 360, Eiralox wrote:kenny... null. imma not comfortable voiting there atm. i can see uber-defensiveness but this can also be town sign day one. i'm wary of toffee/lowell in an abstract manner so imma giving kenny some rope.
In post 361, Eiralox wrote:Mala ISO: full null. they're sleepies
In post 362, Eiralox wrote:Irrelphant: Seems solvey. greenish 4 naow.
In post 363, Eiralox wrote:Freddy AC: I can say this or that but full null. like the pushy nature, wont townread for it.
In post 364, Eiralox wrote:MAlcolm Tuck: Well so far the most greenish one in my null dungeon. if MT i scum they're playing a grand game, made quick scan and seems most tentacly player here thus far, reaching into all da nooks n crannies.


i think thats it 4 now mayb tommorow ill be more comprehensive.
Compare this

to this where Eira was town:

Subject: Newbie 1733: Mafia Boot Camp (GAME OVER)
Eiralox wrote:secondpassing:

Spoiler:
#22 shadow vote on serra. Achieves nothing, shadow vote meaningless as serra not at L-1 or L-2

#26 states reason for not voting serra = phone.

#43 shadow vote on keyen, but votes MOD(not serra or anyone else, which would achieve more)
Three possibilities:
1-Not putting keyen at L-2 so that scumteam do not force hammer
2-Not putting scumpartner at L-2 so that townies can force hammer(unlikely that townies would force hammer this early)
3-By not putting Keyen at L-2, attempts to show that they are town(Look, I won't put someone at L-2, risking forced hammer, therefore I am town)
[3 likelier than 2 atm, unless 2 was done under erroneous reasoning]{Alignment of keyen irrelevant point 3, unless a hybrid of 2 & 3

#47 states shadow vote on keyen is a bad vote after Lii votes Key
#48 Immediately votes Lii for putting Key at L-2

#91 Case against Serra and Lii. Perhaps continuation of #22
Faulty reasoning, Li never put Key at L-1 due to shadow vote.

"No scum would be wagonned to L-1, key prob town" Definite defense of Key, using false reasoning.
Whether the shadow vote on Key was made just to launch 'L-1' attack on someone(here Lii) is to be seen

#93 Defensive. Meaningless question: Avatar, real life actions.
Ignored all the discussion between #48 and #91, would expect town to weigh in on their opinions regarding Key, even after the 'not scum due to L-1' statement.

OVERALL:
Moderately defensive. Only voted when Lii put Key at L-2. Meaningless allusions to avatar choice. Ignored discussions on Key, while placing them at prob town using fualty reasoning. Attacks on others by ways of faulty reasoning.



Sp/Key patterns:
Spoiler:
Keyen:
#74 votes SP, wanting a clarification on Lii vote. This follows Lii's unvote of Key.

#94 Key unvotes SP directly after SP posts. Gives no reason.

keyen seems to be young of age(13), though I do note a distinct difference in tone in this game than that of their previous one, Simply put, the feeling I get from their only other game is more sincere, more proactive and more town orientated. This game he is far more reactive than proactive.


Right now SP/Key scumteam is the likeliest one for me. The only detraction here is the Key vote on Lii, though that may be a tactic to obscure scum patterns.

I want to interact with both of them more however, especially regarding my above analysis.

I am not going to put keyenpeydeeat L-1 this early on, I want to hear his thoughts first.

So: VOTE: secondpassing
The difference is extremely contrasting and shallow thought processes that are refused to be expanded on are nearly a universal scumtell anyways that people need to start adopting.
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Post Post #539 (isolation #116) » Wed Jun 29, 2022 1:14 pm

Post by Confidently Wrong »

Eira can only comment on surface level things, they play reactive to how others perceive them and barely have any thoughts on people, while in this game where they were town, they show complexity in their thought process.

They may pretend that this is not them, but this lie is likely necessary at this point because they are incapable of posting this sort of depth as mafia.


I also heavily disagree that the tone is towny. The tone is *annoyed*. That is not inherently towny.
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Post Post #540 (isolation #117) » Wed Jun 29, 2022 1:14 pm

Post by Confidently Wrong »

In post 538, Loftwing wrote:
In post 510, Confidently Wrong wrote:A classic tactic for less experienced mafia is to try to mimic towniness by trying to loudly proclaim how unsure they are of people's alignments to LAMIST their way into seeming uninformed
Do you think this does not equally apply to me? If not, why not?
I have other metrics for evaluating you because you tend to fall into LHF territory due to playstyle.
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Post Post #541 (isolation #118) » Wed Jun 29, 2022 1:16 pm

Post by Confidently Wrong »

You have also taken much more clear and complex stances, namely with how you seem to be genuinely evaluating kenny, loftwing. I don't defend townreads I don't believe in.
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Post Post #542 (isolation #119) » Wed Jun 29, 2022 1:17 pm

Post by Confidently Wrong »

In post 166, Loftwing wrote:
In post 162, Fredrick A Campbell wrote:
In post 161, Loftwing wrote: in spoiler below
Spoiler:
In post 156, Fredrick A Campbell wrote:Here's something we could all do. Give any three reads on any three players you are willing to make public. The consequences of not doing so will be determined by everyone that participates.

I'll start

Cat Scratch Fever - Town ()
FancyPants - Town ()
Eiralox - Town (Not answering questions)


I don't particularly have any reads.
Seen everyone's post? Select a few posts that are most alignment indicative for you now and get yourself a few.
I have read the entire game, and nothing is particularly notable.

I do think that CSF and BBT show a genuine interest in pushing the game forward, rather than a fabricated reason to go after their respective targets.
this for example is genuine, organic, vs proclaiming "I HAVE 12 PEOPLE NULL" and then force out reads to appear towny.
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Post Post #543 (isolation #120) » Wed Jun 29, 2022 1:20 pm

Post by Confidently Wrong »

I hope that satiates any concerns you have that my read is faulty based on reasoning you think could apply to you. I could go for a townblock including myself, Irrelephant, you(loftwing), CSF, Fredrick, and Fancy Pants

honorary members Shoshin and Malcom
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Post Post #546 (isolation #121) » Wed Jun 29, 2022 1:27 pm

Post by Confidently Wrong »

I do have an actual case.

Lacking a thought process or progression is scummy.

You lack these things.


You refused to prove either and just continue to try to wave it away or complain.

How people are townreading you who I myself think are town, is beyond me, but there's a reason I get sheeped more often than other people.
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Post Post #548 (isolation #122) » Wed Jun 29, 2022 1:30 pm

Post by Confidently Wrong »

All your complaining for me to scumcase you Eira, when I have done 20x the work you have and laid out reasoning while you said 1 small statement that doesn't even logically apply about my play(and is irrelevant because I ended up explaining it)

You case *me* if you think I'm scum.
you aren't trapped into calling me scum btw - you can acknowledge I'm town, and appeal to me and say I'm wrong on you and direct me elsewhere or explain how my read is not logically sound. but so far I do not see that happening.
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Post Post #549 (isolation #123) » Wed Jun 29, 2022 1:31 pm

Post by Confidently Wrong »

I would help with votecounts if the mod used the votecounter I normally use and have the settings in the OP
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Post Post #551 (isolation #124) » Wed Jun 29, 2022 1:38 pm

Post by Confidently Wrong »

the other 2 scum after seeing the damage Eira has done in thread:
Image

(this is directed at Lowell and Mala)
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Post Post #553 (isolation #125) » Wed Jun 29, 2022 1:46 pm

Post by Confidently Wrong »

In post 552, Cat Scratch Fever wrote:
In post 539, Confidently Wrong wrote: I also heavily disagree that the tone is towny. The tone is *annoyed*. That is not inherently towny.
I was referring to the belief they seem to have in themselves that they're right, not so much the annoyance
That's perhaps the easiest trait to fake as scum when using a shitpush strategy so perhaps not the most useful one :P
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Post Post #631 (isolation #126) » Thu Jun 30, 2022 12:27 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

Not to wiki post but eira do be IIoAing quite a bit
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Post Post #632 (isolation #127) » Thu Jun 30, 2022 12:30 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

I did for like a solid 5 minutes think about how a town Eira makes sense and i decided i need more info to deconfrim Eira namely waiting to see how the rest of the playerlist treat the slot in light of the wagon.
The loftwing vote is pretty clearly self pres though so I am doubtful.
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Post Post #635 (isolation #128) » Thu Jun 30, 2022 2:07 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

Where in the world are Lowell and Mala
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Post Post #642 (isolation #129) » Thu Jun 30, 2022 2:17 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

I dont think this null discussion is going to be fruitful regardless of eiras alignment because it is being argued as semantics atp.
What I do believe is Eira is unable to present genuine reads and all of them use vague descriptors rather than incorporating genuine analysis that a towny solving would go through - eira knows the answers and cannot show the work properly essentially.
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Post Post #683 (isolation #130) » Thu Jun 30, 2022 8:21 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

I've made it clear that the reason Eiras reads are scummy is because they have shoddy reasoning that comes from trying to fake reasoning when you know the answer.

I think Eira is obvious in the sense that if any of you were spectating this game and were not a player, you would immediately find Eira obvious mafia. But the fact of being a player there is a paranoia of wanting to not be wrong and biasing the overt scumtells as not damning.

I understand the hesitency, but if you look at how Eira is approaching the game and interpreting it, it is pretty cut and dry that they already know the answers and cant make real reads. Essentially I think they come off as a bad liar.
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Post Post #684 (isolation #131) » Thu Jun 30, 2022 8:25 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

I have Eira basically locked in as mafia and there is nothing that can happen that will cause me to stray from this course. The evidence is there. It is reasonable and it should prove that Eira is mafia. I'm going to be passive about the Mala and Lowell wagons as I like info but I'm actively against the current loftwing wagon.
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Post Post #686 (isolation #132) » Thu Jun 30, 2022 8:32 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

Personally i think the null thing is a slip in trying to come off as uninformed but I don't think it will get me closer to concretely casing them. Its simply something thats explained as forced uninformedness if scum and plausibly just a playstyle quirk if town.
Judging by past games where this was not present i am doubtful - but overall I ask to look at the process they are presenting and how it consists of strictly listing facts with weak, forced feeling analysis
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Post Post #692 (isolation #133) » Thu Jun 30, 2022 10:22 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

In post 691, Malakittens wrote:ngl

i'm prob not gonna read the thread

i just don't care enough to do so.

only time i might is if i think i need to to avoid an elim
can u tell us what eira is saying in scumchat
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Post Post #704 (isolation #134) » Thu Jun 30, 2022 10:47 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

In post 703, Shoshin wrote:Town to scum:

Eira
Fancy
Kenny
Malcolm
Cat
CW
Irrel
BBT
Fred
Mala
Lowell
Loftwing
eira is blatant scum, stop trolling6
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Post Post #706 (isolation #135) » Thu Jun 30, 2022 10:49 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

not it isn't
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Post Post #707 (isolation #136) » Thu Jun 30, 2022 10:50 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

that's the type of shit people eliminate LHF players for all the time and then never learn lmao
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Post Post #708 (isolation #137) » Thu Jun 30, 2022 10:51 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

also i fully think shoshin is town and never eliminate and the only reason their reads are so bonkers is because theyre both misclearing the most obvious scum and misreading an easily findable townie for what I believe are incorrect reasons to label someone as mafia.
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Post Post #710 (isolation #138) » Thu Jun 30, 2022 10:53 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

shoshin please cite a single thought from Eira you thought was towny. Because I guarantee you binned them town for posting a lot and being pushed by someone you are currently confbiasing into a scumteam for defending your top scumread.
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Post Post #712 (isolation #139) » Thu Jun 30, 2022 10:54 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

In post 709, Shoshin wrote:Why is Eira scum?
Maybe if you actually read the back and forth I had with Eira you could find out instead of outting the fact you did not read it.

I have laid it out many times. It's simple to explain even - Eira's thought process is flimsy and comes from a place of TMI because they have no real analysis and can only list what has happened in the game.

Now you say why he is town without using myself or Loftwing as part of the reasoning.
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Post Post #713 (isolation #140) » Thu Jun 30, 2022 10:55 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

I also find Mala's recent postings to be townier in the sense she started posting content I expect from town!mala under pressure.
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Post Post #714 (isolation #141) » Thu Jun 30, 2022 10:56 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

In post 711, BlueBloodedToffee wrote:I'd wagon Fred Mala, similar feelings regarding their posts
Why are you avoiding discussing Eira at all? I saw you soft defend them earlier, what's your take on them, the 2nd highest poster in the game?
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Post Post #716 (isolation #142) » Thu Jun 30, 2022 10:59 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

Considering I helped create like 5 pages of discussion around the slot that's a bit surprising.
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Post Post #719 (isolation #143) » Thu Jun 30, 2022 11:08 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

In post 718, Shoshin wrote:
In post 443, Eiralox wrote:VOTE: confidently wrong with a ten foot pole.

lowell i'm ok with. you don't xpand tho. fact that u have mala on scum list trips me. mala straight null, ill vote there cos inactive but i don't see how u can form any reads. there's nothing. so having mala in a team with lowell/eira..... i mean CF maybe ur trolling here but D1 if I name three ppl scum i do so with reasons. meh.


me, well, bring your case. tell me why and how eira is scummy.
CW, why do you read me as town?
I'm not answering your questions if you continue to refuse to answer mine.

This is the second time you ignored me and went straight to countering me with a question.
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Post Post #720 (isolation #144) » Thu Jun 30, 2022 11:08 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

In post 717, BlueBloodedToffee wrote:I haven't seen that yet.

Having null reads isn't scummy though so...
But no one is saying that is scummy on its own.
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Post Post #722 (isolation #145) » Thu Jun 30, 2022 11:10 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

Ok I'm still going to read you town and carry anyways
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Post Post #723 (isolation #146) » Thu Jun 30, 2022 11:11 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

If you want to be obtuse, I think you are town because your thoughts are obviously independent and I can trace how you reached conclusions.

I disagree with your conclusions, and think the process is wrong. But its a towny process.
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Post Post #724 (isolation #147) » Thu Jun 30, 2022 11:12 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

If you want to play with your ego and get mad and vote me for disagreeing with you go ahead, but don't be surprised when it doesn't help win the game for town.
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Post Post #726 (isolation #148) » Thu Jun 30, 2022 11:16 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

In post 721, Shoshin wrote:VOTE: Confidently Wrong
In post 722, Confidently Wrong wrote:Ok I'm still going to read you town and carry anyways
In post 723, Confidently Wrong wrote:If you want to be obtuse, I think you are town because your thoughts are obviously independent and I can trace how you reached conclusions.

I disagree with your conclusions, and think the process is wrong. But its a towny process.
In post 724, Confidently Wrong wrote:If you want to play with your ego and get mad and vote me for disagreeing with you go ahead, but don't be surprised when it doesn't help win the game for town.
for visibility
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Post Post #728 (isolation #149) » Thu Jun 30, 2022 11:19 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

I am at a point where I can call every one of these players town with confidence, if I am wrong about *any* of them it is at worst only 1 in my humble opinion.

Loftwing
MalcolmTucker
Shoshin
Fredrick A Campbell
Cat Scratch Fever
FancyPants
Irrelephant11

And then to add on to that, I would say Mala after her recent postings and Kenny, are both also townreads for me although I am not confident enough to lock them in. Mala is closer to townlocking than Kenny here in this case.

This leaves us with a trio of BBT/Lowell/Eiralox
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Post Post #729 (isolation #150) » Thu Jun 30, 2022 11:19 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

In post 727, Lowell wrote:Cats still mad I busted him up so early. Sorry Bud it happens, even a blind Lowell finds a nut once in a while. I’ll laugh if it’s eira AND Cats, but I doubt that’s likely unless there’s a scum day chat.
"i'm definitely not mafia, see I didn't know about scum daychat being standard haha!"
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Post Post #730 (isolation #151) » Thu Jun 30, 2022 11:21 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

I would say my biggest blindspot in my townlocks would be Irrelephant but I feel I've mindmelded with them a bunch this game. I would be concerned if they were alive in the lategame and my PoE was fully flipped by that point.
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Post Post #734 (isolation #152) » Thu Jun 30, 2022 11:23 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

Weird because I opened 2 games of yours from 2017 and they both had daychat standard, any other 2017 gamers know when mafia daychat became more standard in games?
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Post Post #735 (isolation #153) » Thu Jun 30, 2022 11:24 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

No I think Shoshin or MalcomT is not that useful right now and I think they are town
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Post Post #736 (isolation #154) » Thu Jun 30, 2022 11:26 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

OK I see it was not standard back in 2015 so there is light plausibility. However the assumption of no daytalk when normals did have it back then is lol
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Post Post #737 (isolation #155) » Thu Jun 30, 2022 11:29 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

But also you may have played since 2005 but I also have at least 5 years of mafia under my belt - and I see your preemptive attempt to discredit my townreads and simultaneously open an avenue to plausibly defend Eira.

Nothing escapes me, I notice all.

It is absolutely true that townies will show more thoughtfulness in their analysis and trying to claim otherwise is pushing to allow players like Eira to live on that very basis.


Sure this can misclear some scums sometimes - however those are players that typically will still slip in some form at some point. They are players you simply do not catch early unless by PoE.

So forgive me if I take you discred attempt with a grain of salt.
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Post Post #738 (isolation #156) » Thu Jun 30, 2022 11:34 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

This is going to be one of those games I out a perfect PoE at the end of day 1(perhaps even my current solve is perfect who knows), I get nightkilled, and mafia still somehow end up winning, huh.
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Post Post #750 (isolation #157) » Thu Jun 30, 2022 12:08 pm

Post by Confidently Wrong »

In post 742, Lowell wrote:@cw that just isn’t right. “Good” players tend to survive regardless of alignment, it’s the reason I go on feel and atmospherics more than by who can craft the most thoughtful case. Cats panicked when he thought he was caught for a dumb reason, and has spent the next 20 pages lurking or sniping at low hanging fruit. That’s more meaningful to me than “oh this idiot has bad opinions”
I have played with Cats and know how Cats plays as scum. They did not panic here either. So no, thats wrong.
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Post Post #787 (isolation #158) » Fri Jul 01, 2022 2:04 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

In post 785, Irrelephant11 wrote:CW could be scum trying to power a miselim through. I think loftwing is a pretty good flip

We should consider making a flip happen sooner rather than later because this weekend is a holiday weekend for everyone in the US and we have about 2.5 days left in this game day, during which the American players might barely post (e.g. me, I'll be hanging with family)
What signs do you see me being scum?

And why is Loftwing a good flip? Over Eira even?
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Post Post #819 (isolation #159) » Fri Jul 01, 2022 10:33 pm

Post by Confidently Wrong »

Good morning i slept all day

The people tunneling on loftwing need to stop when scum eira is right there.

I also am untownlocking irrelephant until they can explain where their mind went from Eira to Loftwing - I did not feel good about the last few pages and how they treated certain slots suddenly.
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Post Post #820 (isolation #160) » Fri Jul 01, 2022 10:35 pm

Post by Confidently Wrong »

Shoshin i will be extremely dissapointed if you help town lose this game because you think your solutions are the only correct ones.
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Post Post #821 (isolation #161) » Fri Jul 01, 2022 10:38 pm

Post by Confidently Wrong »

Loftwing i get the vibes thing on Fancy but im pretty sure they are town
I know you're trying your best to help people find you and I'm sorry there are stubborn townies this game being unfair to thay and intentionally ignoring it.
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Post Post #824 (isolation #162) » Fri Jul 01, 2022 11:32 pm

Post by Confidently Wrong »

In post 822, FancyPants wrote:It's hard to vote off Loftwing based on your input because your reasoning for him being Town is meta related, and when I did my dive (admittedly before I knew he was an alt) I didn't find the same.

As for your case on Eira I think I understand your jist but what I don't see is why "Eira is just wrong and bad at cases." is a worse explanation. Additionally it's partially supported by your surety of everyone else's alignment (you could only know Eira is making reads based on knowing everyone's alignment if you ALSO know everyone's alignment, I hope that makes sense).
I understand you could just be that sure of yourself, or at least pretending to be but it's kinda weird and difficult to just sheep.
I'm willing to compromise on Lowell as a "let's avoid loftwing vs eira" thing.

I'm not feeling Loftwing *at all* and I'm seeing their towngame here.

VOTE: Lowell

also BBT's last post being actually towny making me feel better about untownlocking irrelephant in my reads... because now I got a wild potential world of Irrelephant/Eira/Lowell
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Post Post #826 (isolation #163) » Fri Jul 01, 2022 11:49 pm

Post by Confidently Wrong »

Who is a good vote?
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Post Post #828 (isolation #164) » Sat Jul 02, 2022 12:00 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

You're currently voting Kenny - why?

And what are those 3 FoSes based on? I find Malcom and Fredrick to be pretty transparently townie to me.
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Post Post #830 (isolation #165) » Sat Jul 02, 2022 12:17 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

Let me sell you what I'm seeing in a way that you may see more clearly:

So you said earlier that you feel there's scum pushing Loftwing, no?

Well, if you look back, both Lowell and Eira switched their vote to Loftwing once a wagon on themselves started building.

My conclusion off that was that they were trying to self preserve by voting out Loftwing, rather than being a townie who organically found Loftwing scummy.
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Post Post #900 (isolation #166) » Sat Jul 02, 2022 6:08 pm

Post by Confidently Wrong »

Hi , loftwing is obvtown, lets vote out either lowell or eira please
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Post Post #901 (isolation #167) » Sat Jul 02, 2022 6:09 pm

Post by Confidently Wrong »

If i die going into day 2, my number 1 legacy is eira scum
Yes shoshin that means you too should vote eira once you know i am town 100%

Lowell/irrelephant/eira is a team im heavily considering with BBT as backup PoE
Everyone else i feel have towntold to some capacity
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Post Post #945 (isolation #168) » Sun Jul 03, 2022 2:56 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

VOTE: eira
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Post Post #946 (isolation #169) » Sun Jul 03, 2022 2:57 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

VOTE: lowell
Powerlim this
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Post Post #948 (isolation #170) » Sun Jul 03, 2022 2:58 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

Im not frankly surprises that loftwing ended up being PR
I also believe Fredrick is a PR so they're off the fucking table
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Post Post #949 (isolation #171) » Sun Jul 03, 2022 2:58 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

Lowell and Eira are scum together trying not to die d1 desperately
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Post Post #950 (isolation #172) » Sun Jul 03, 2022 3:00 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

In post 917, FancyPants wrote:After looking up some rules about normals I see that neighbourizer can be a scum aligned role (but is usually pro-town).
I'm looking for guidance from a more experienced player I'm pretty sure is town, so CW or Irrelevant basically, although I'll take input from anyone.
It's inclusion is exactly null usually
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Post Post #951 (isolation #173) » Sun Jul 03, 2022 3:00 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

In post 917, FancyPants wrote:After looking up some rules about normals I see that neighbourizer can be a scum aligned role (but is usually pro-town).
I'm looking for guidance from a more experienced player I'm pretty sure is town, so CW or Irrelevant basically, although I'll take input from anyone.
It's inclusion is exactly null usually
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Post Post #957 (isolation #174) » Sun Jul 03, 2022 3:39 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

In post 956, MalcolmTucker wrote:I've not particularly SR'd Fredrick for most of the game (found the slot hard to read initially), but I think BBT is very much town, going to take a proper look at their case on Fredrick and see where I stand.

Lowell's posting hasn't screamed townie at me, but some of their recent responses don't indicate a scum player trying to stay on the good side of town either.
Fredrick is town, probably PR, we are NOT voting there.

he has clearly played in a non agenda way do not fucking counterwagon them last second.,
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Post Post #959 (isolation #175) » Sun Jul 03, 2022 3:48 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

I honestly am getting fed up with your indecisiveness and insistence to not listen to me at all. you are very easily pulled into weird LHF pushes.

Stop playing pro scum and vote lowell instead of trying to classify weird play as scummy.
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Post Post #960 (isolation #176) » Sun Jul 03, 2022 3:48 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

I can clearly see what you qualify as scummy and you need to stop projecting.
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Post Post #963 (isolation #177) » Sun Jul 03, 2022 3:53 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

In post 962, BlueBloodedToffee wrote:
In post 959, Confidently Wrong wrote:I honestly am getting fed up with your indecisiveness and insistence to not listen to me at all. you are very easily pulled into weird LHF pushes.

Stop playing pro scum and vote lowell instead of trying to classify weird play as scummy.
Weird LHF??? Hahaha, like Fred hasn't spent all game doing that? Give me a break

Lowell is a lot more like LHF than Fred is.
Why is Lowell town?

Explain right now.
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Post Post #964 (isolation #178) » Sun Jul 03, 2022 3:56 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

I believe they are scum because their progression is fake and completely absent.

Except like maybe 1 or 2 organic looking read changes the rest are just jagged progression that clearly is just trying to sheep town consensus wagons onto other townies.
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Post Post #966 (isolation #179) » Sun Jul 03, 2022 3:58 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

Nevermind the fact lowell has completely ignored me this whole game while I have pushed them probably the hardest - a fun little tactic.

Lowell/Eira are blatantly paired and Fred is in my townblock. I will vehemently oppose fred unless you have an actual good case there.
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Post Post #967 (isolation #180) » Sun Jul 03, 2022 3:58 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

So you believe Irrelephant scum?
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Post Post #969 (isolation #181) » Sun Jul 03, 2022 4:02 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

Your case implies Irrelephant scum which is why I'm asking because I believe that slot is actually not as town as I first believed.

I admit I'm mostly scumreading Lowell for how they defend Eira in such a subtle yet overt manner.

Fredrick is also here defending Eira without explaination.

TBH

I feel a little less against it purely for the fact Fredrick has gone against my own reads so :D
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Post Post #970 (isolation #182) » Sun Jul 03, 2022 4:04 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

fuck it
VOTE: Fredrick

I see it now.
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Post Post #971 (isolation #183) » Sun Jul 03, 2022 4:04 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

if this flips town pls turbo eira/lowell tho

i think BBT's reasoning on this was town motivated even if it leads to an incorrect conclusion
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Post Post #979 (isolation #184) » Sun Jul 03, 2022 4:42 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

In post 975, MalcolmTucker wrote:
In post 970, Confidently Wrong wrote:fuck it
VOTE: Fredrick

I see it now.
If Fredrick comes back scum this could end up looking like a mafia tactic to distance yourself from fellow scum. Not sure how you've gone from accusing me of being indecisive and non-committal to now jumping on the bandwagon yourself in the space of a couple of posts.
you are annoying me, please stop.
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Post Post #980 (isolation #185) » Sun Jul 03, 2022 4:44 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

idk how it is not obvious but clearly those are 2 different things.

how about you actually try to consider town motivations instead of trying to make up your own world that you are comfortable with strictly.
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Post Post #981 (isolation #186) » Sun Jul 03, 2022 4:45 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

In post 976, MalcolmTucker wrote:What's Fred at vote wise? Keen to put my vote there but they should obviously have a chance to respond before we hammer at all.
like my guy you literally show indecisiveness in the very next post pls stop lmao

now i see how u got mislimmed in the last normal you played, open your mind up and commit to opinions.
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Post Post #992 (isolation #187) » Sun Jul 03, 2022 6:24 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

In post 991, Shoshin wrote:I'm just gonna sheep Irrel today.
i pray that my read on irrelephant is wrong because if irrelephant is scum i see you being tunneled in on that slot being town and being pocketed to no end.

asking you directly to make sure when you end up in limlo that you actually critically think about *why* you are there and why other people are there.
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Post Post #994 (isolation #188) » Sun Jul 03, 2022 6:53 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

ok based
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Post Post #1008 (isolation #189) » Sun Jul 03, 2022 9:44 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

Kill Fred->Irrelephant->Eira on a loft town flip
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Post Post #1010 (isolation #190) » Sun Jul 03, 2022 9:45 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

In post 1003, FancyPants wrote:Looking at this makes me worry about CW, he's on a wagon with his other 2 scum reads.
Surely in CW's mind that's not the scum trio.

Regardless it's too late for that. I'm going to stay up for about an hour but then I'm really pushing my bed time.
I dont follow wagonomics esp on d1 bc its terrible.
It always has been terrible and always will be unless you have a 100% confirmed slot.
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Post Post #1011 (isolation #191) » Sun Jul 03, 2022 9:46 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

In post 1009, Irrelephant11 wrote:1008 is a terrible post
Is Loftwing scum or town

Am i scum or town


What am i if Loftwing flips town?
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Post Post #1013 (isolation #192) » Sun Jul 03, 2022 9:47 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

You've been trying to use the fact I have a decent scumgame to make a faux case against me subtly, Irrelephant11. Don't pretend like it isnt the case - i can see it.
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Post Post #1015 (isolation #193) » Sun Jul 03, 2022 9:48 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

How is 1008 a bad post? Is it purely based on the fact i put you in the list?
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Post Post #1017 (isolation #194) » Sun Jul 03, 2022 9:50 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

In post 1014, FancyPants wrote:@CW, noted, and for what it's worth if you do get NKed like you fear I promise to take your posthumous reads seriously.
I mean my most sheepable reads are usually my townreads ... I'm still determining if im having a decent game or not but if im n1d i would show higher scrutiny of my PoE
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Post Post #1040 (isolation #195) » Sun Jul 03, 2022 11:44 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

In post 1032, Irrelephant11 wrote:If town, bbt deserves jail time k bye
who tf softs jailkeeper like this :eek:
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Post Post #1041 (isolation #196) » Sun Jul 03, 2022 11:45 am

Post by Confidently Wrong »

In post 1034, FancyPants wrote:
In post 1032, Irrelephant11 wrote:If town, bbt deserves jail time k bye
This post is kinda scummy, but I guess we talk tomorrow.
lmao mindmeld?
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Post Post #1052 (isolation #197) » Sun Jul 03, 2022 4:37 pm

Post by Confidently Wrong »

In post 1008, Confidently Wrong wrote:Kill Fred->Irrelephant->Eira on a loft town flip
irrelephant->eira->lowell on this flipping town
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Post Post #1087 (isolation #198) » Thu Jul 07, 2022 10:46 pm

Post by Confidently Wrong »

In post 1075, FancyPants wrote:Day 2 town block is as follows:

Myself/Irrelephant/Malcom/Kenny

It's probably not Eira or Lowell either.

Last two scum are in:
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In post 1059, BlueBloodedToffee wrote:CW, why were you reading Loftwing as town?
Because sometimes i suck on d1 and was too generous with a townread there!
Now i can reeval rho

Fancy pants immediately saying I'm probably scum is indicative of an inability to think town can be wrong ;)
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Post Post #1089 (isolation #199) » Thu Jul 07, 2022 10:48 pm

Post by Confidently Wrong »

Illl be honest i had lower confidence that loftwing was town after their claim but i was extremely tunneled on eira who was unaligned there

Having a scum flip means i can delete next scum tho

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