Open 855: Not Mafia's Republic | Game Over

[staypositivefriend]

pooky why didnt u rake catboi over the coals for wanting to resolve btwn penguin_nm? it's only wolfy when i do it i guess

[staypositivefriend]

you are saying you would rather take a 50/50 shot based on an assumption that may or may not be true.

instead of pushing to vote out the person who is 100% a wolf to you.

it's not an assumption it's just being capable of reading the room

[staypositivefriend]

pooky why didnt u rake catboi over the coals for wanting to resolve btwn penguin_nm? it's only wolfy when i do it i guess

I have already put catboi thru hell yesterday

if he wins as wolf here it's cuz you didn't help me yeet him yesterday

i mean i dont really think he's a wolf, im just pointing out the irony in you acting like it's inherently ridiclous for me to suggest resolving between nm/penguin when catboi suggested doing the exact same thing

i get that it's slightly different from his POV since he doesnt have a probable confirmed wolf from his POV but still

[staypositivefriend]

i feel like i should probably just vote arete now to prove that i have no real qualms with killing them and am simply acting out of my best statistical interest but also im stubborn and dont want to

[staypositivefriend]

i feel like i should probably just vote arete now to prove that i have no real qualms with killing them and am simply acting out of my best statistical interest but also im stubborn and dont want to

if you actually think I'm a wolf then why do you Stubbornly Not Want To Vote Me?

i dont mean this in a rude way but i feel like we've gone over this exact question in the last 5 pages

[staypositivefriend]

why is my brain generating the hypothesis 'maybe she's town but lying about her reads from selfpres'

brain that is the WORST hypothesis

i am known for my lying as town

[staypositivefriend]

[staypositivefriend]

ehhh i dont really think pooky is mafia, he is at least significantly townier than the wolfgame i saw from him a while ago

[staypositivefriend]

ehhh i dont really think pooky is mafia, he is at least significantly townier than the wolfgame i saw from him a while ago

What was in his mafia game that isn't in this game?

he was a lot less solvey, a lot less inclined to directly engage with/confront other people, a lot less invested in figuring other people out, and in general he made a lot more off-topic posts. im sure that the single game i saw from him was probably not the best exemplification of his full wolf range, but the differences between that game and this game are pretty stark

[staypositivefriend]

ehhh i dont really think pooky is mafia, he is at least significantly townier than the wolfgame i saw from him a while ago

What was in his mafia game that isn't in this game?

he was a lot less solvey, a lot less inclined to directly engage with/confront other people, a lot less invested in figuring other people out, and in general he made a lot more off-topic posts. im sure that the single game i saw from him was probably not the best exemplification of his full wolf range, but the differences between that game and this game are pretty stark

Are we sure he's just flat out pushing whoever is convenient for his team? He's 180'd on a few reads and then 360'd on other reads.

He keeps spinning for fucks sake.

at a certain point i feel like he wouldnt have bothered to engage w/me for as long as he did and also unvote me in his position as mafia/a wolf. it'd be p easy for him to just shut up and vote me

[staypositivefriend]

ok

VOTE: arete

[staypositivefriend]

Aftersun is flailing

ur partner is probably about to die, sorry xo

[staypositivefriend]

save the dragons do u hardclaim that?

[staypositivefriend]

jesus fucking Christ okay I didn't want to do this but unlike some people I'm not a thrower so

i cant believe you actually bussed your own teammate in 5-3-2 when literally town doesnt want to yeet mafia

and you claimed that there was no way to tell the difference between wolf and mafia

WHILE YOU WERE VOTING YOUR OWN MAFIA TEAMMATE

AND YOU ARE CALLING HER A THROWER FOR NOT CLAIMING MAFIA

LIKE I KNOW SHE SHOULDVE CLAIMED BUT WHAT THE FUCK IS THAT BUS R U SERIOUS THAT DOESNT EVEN HELP YOU WIN THE GAME BECAUSE IF WE DONT YeET WOLVES ITS NOT LIKE THEY MAGICALLY DISAPPEAR WHEN YOU GET TO THE END OF THE RAINBOW BUDDY

seems more likely to me that arete is a wolf than that arete is maf who bussed their partner for no reason, especially in light of std's claim lol

[staypositivefriend]

VOTE: spf

are u just outing urself as a wolf then

[staypositivefriend]

its mindblowingly bad play

I just can't actually fathom it

it's because arete is lying and a wolf, hope this helps

[staypositivefriend]

VOTE: spf

are u just outing urself as a wolf then

i mean - i'm obviously going to vote between std and arete.....................

nah but u tried to flip things back to me as soon as arete claimed and before std cc'd, which makes me think u might be arete's partner going for the hail mary play lol

[staypositivefriend]

i knew that arete was TMIing me as town lol

[staypositivefriend]

i mean there's always an off chance that std is a wolf who fakeclaimed to try to get arete killed today but the answer that requires the least amount of assumptions (and therefore the option that is significantly more likely to be true) is t hat arete is a wolf who claimed mafia in a desperate attempt to avoid being killed

[staypositivefriend]

when we were discussing who the wolves were in Mafia chat she brought up Micro 1015 where apparently Pooky's hydra like totally melted down as town and got misexe'd, she said you were probably actually town here (I kinda thought you could be a wolf trying to powerwolf 'cause of all the tunnelling)

@pooky - would either of penguin or not_mafia be able to provide arete with this information?

[staypositivefriend]

what information its not even true

oh maybe theyre just frantically scrambling through ur previous games to try to look knowledgeable about u then

[staypositivefriend]

[staypositivefriend]

if me and savethedragons are obviously the wolf team that will be proven to be wolves after u flip mafia, it sounds like ur team might win and that u dont have much to worry about tbh

[staypositivefriend]

and i might be more willing to consider that u were telling the truth about being mafia if u could give me a good answer for who the wolves are besides just "spf/savethedragon". u choosing to call me/std obvious wolves makes me feel like ur saying that because u strategically have to and not because ur actually trying to hunt for the wolves lol

[staypositivefriend]

also i am very obviously not partnered with dragons since i actively pushed on them throughout d2 and tried to get them killed

so from arete's pov, me/dragons should never be a viable wolf team, but theyre acting like it is because they literally dont have any other names to push on

[staypositivefriend]

well arete doesn't want to our their partner so they have to antispew regardless of alignment

okay that's fair ig - im just bothered by how obviously fake their read that me/std are the wolves are and it makes me even less inclined to trust anything they say lol

[staypositivefriend]

and i might be more willing to consider that u were telling the truth about being mafia if u could give me a good answer for who the wolves are besides just "spf/savethedragon". u choosing to call me/std obvious wolves makes me feel like ur saying that because u strategically have to and not because ur actually trying to hunt for the wolves lol

STD is outed because they counterclaimed me

before they CC'd I thought it was you/Penguin but I actually think Penguin's response to this whole fight has been uninformed, whereas yours has sorta been dancing around committing to 'Arete is a wolf' while trying to prop up STD in the counterclaim anyways

it is literally not possible for me and std to be teamed with each other and if u were actually hunting for the wolves then u would know this, but u are in anti-spew right now so it's probably not worth engaging with you

[staypositivefriend]

and i might be more willing to consider that u were telling the truth about being mafia if u could give me a good answer for who the wolves are besides just "spf/savethedragon". u choosing to call me/std obvious wolves makes me feel like ur saying that because u strategically have to and not because ur actually trying to hunt for the wolves lol

STD is outed because they counterclaimed me

before they CC'd I thought it was you/Penguin but I actually think Penguin's response to this whole fight has been uninformed, whereas yours has sorta been dancing around committing to 'Arete is a wolf' while trying to prop up STD in the counterclaim anyways

it is literally not possible for me and std to be teamed with each other and if u were actually hunting for the wolves then u would know this, but u are in anti-spew right now so it's probably not worth engaging with you

you were telling us earlier that you were great at theater

but really the person you have to convince is not me, I don't particularly expect anyone to listen to my legacy even though I am in the best position of everyone in the game to solve it

there's a difference btwn theater and deathtunneling someone who it would be strategically sub-optimal to deathtunnel. but ur right that i dont care about convincing u because u are in anti-spew regardless of if ur wolf or mafia and not being fully honest with your thoughts. im just bringing attention to how obviously fake your current view of the game is

[staypositivefriend]

the only world where it makes sense for std to cc arete as a wolf to get arete chopped is a world where they would have faith in their partner to endgame

so a world where std is a wolf is probably a world where the wolf is super deep as well (ie: catboi/sabihydra)

just worth keeping in mind ig

[staypositivefriend]

and i might be more willing to consider that u were telling the truth about being mafia if u could give me a good answer for who the wolves are besides just "spf/savethedragon". u choosing to call me/std obvious wolves makes me feel like ur saying that because u strategically have to and not because ur actually trying to hunt for the wolves lol

STD is outed because they counterclaimed me

before they CC'd I thought it was you/Penguin but I actually think Penguin's response to this whole fight has been uninformed, whereas yours has sorta been dancing around committing to 'Arete is a wolf' while trying to prop up STD in the counterclaim anyways

it is literally not possible for me and std to be teamed with each other and if u were actually hunting for the wolves then u would know this, but u are in anti-spew right now so it's probably not worth engaging with you

you were telling us earlier that you were great at theater

but really the person you have to convince is not me, I don't particularly expect anyone to listen to my legacy even though I am in the best position of everyone in the game to solve it

there's a difference btwn theater and deathtunneling someone who it would be strategically sub-optimal to deathtunnel. but ur right that i dont care about convincing u because u are in anti-spew regardless of if ur wolf or mafia and not being fully honest with your thoughts. im just bringing attention to how obviously fake your current view of the game is

I just want to make it 100 percent clear here that my read that SPF is STD's wolf partner is genuine and the her treatment of my slot ~never comes from town, when I flip Mafia you all should not go say 'well they were Mafia so maybe they were lying,' I will make fun of you in dead chat

[staypositivefriend]

arete i think we can stop doing wolf theater now i think we've convinced everyone that we aren't partnered

[staypositivefriend]

arete i think we can stop doing wolf theater now i think we've convinced everyone that we aren't partnered

[staypositivefriend]

no

if the partner is super deep there's no point to CC as wolf.

you only CC if its really likely you or your partner is the next train destination so you have to fire a CC off while you can before the lights start heading your way.

yah this is true, if std is a wolf they could have just kept quiet and let arete hold their mafia claim and let me get killed instead. they had an easy mischop in front of them by not cc'ing, so i dont really see what incentive they would have to claim

[staypositivefriend]

incidentally you can tell that read on STD's interactions was 100 percent fake because half my talking points were literally just arguments Achro used against me in G8 (v/v) and if I were town *or* a mafiahunting wolf I wouldn't have been treating this as outing

(the other half of the talking points are stronger but still not outing)

lol that's kinda funny i didnt pick up on that

[staypositivefriend]

i wrote a song

it's called

Arete is a Wolf

Arete is a wolf
Arete has a lastname
Arete is a wolf
Yeet them from the game
Arete is a wolf
Arete is a liar
Arete is a wolf
Yeet their slot with fire!

i tried to respond to this post with fire emojis and it broke the entire website

banger tbh

[staypositivefriend]

not to be too aggressive but if you still think that me & arete have any level of partner equity after yesterday, then you have no idea how to read spew. arete blatantly spewed me as town by treating me with kids gloves for the entire game because they were hunting for the mafia team and they clearly knew that i Wasn't Mafia. it would be incredibly stupid for our strategy as a wolfteam for me to pressure and go out of my way to "bury" arete on d1 only for arete to townread me for nebulous and flimsy reasons. it's also just obvious from the way that arete and i interacted that we aren't teamed

[staypositivefriend]

like if you actually think that me & arete can be teamed then it is genuinely just a skill issue lol

[staypositivefriend]

i should be spewed town by anyone even half paying attention to this game based on the fact that i buried arete on d1, based on the fact that arete spewed me as town from their treatment of me, and based on the fact that i'm obviously not mafia since i hardpushed on ydrasse/STD throughout d1/d2 but i dont have a ton of faith in the rest of this game to read the spew correctly

[staypositivefriend]

i think the d1 spf back and forth with arete and spf unvoting once arete got votes felt like scum theatre and she was trying to find the most convoluted ass reason to not vote him yesterday.

it wasn't even convoluted. i'm not stupid and i would understand as a wolf with arete facing a lot of pressure that refusing to vote for arete and wanting to resolve outside of them would make me look partnered w/them if u read the game in the most level 0 way possible. in a world where me/arete are W/W the smart thing to do is just bus & distance since at least one of us was clearly going over within the next dayphase or so

[staypositivefriend]

anyway i didnt think about the game much overnight but pending re-evaluation, n_m is the player with the most obvious level of partner equity with arete, and arete made several posts yesterday that seemed overly aware/self-conscious f their positioning toward n_m and felt like they were trying to avoid spewing them. that said, i'll give everyone here a look before i conf bias myself into pushing him lol

[staypositivefriend]

actually, looking at arete's progression on not_mafia, i might just be willing to thunderdome with not_mafia today and then gracefully accept getting chopped tomorrow if im wrong, but i wont get too ahead of myself lol

[staypositivefriend]

depends if you think her unvote makes sense and her never revoting him even as I built that wagon up makes sense

i was quite literally burying arete and dunking on them in tandem with you throughout the last few pages of the EOD - it was obvious that i was advocating for them to die and it was obvious that the day was always going to end with them dying. why do u think i wouldnt just vote them for the extra bus cred as a partner? why is it even wolfy that i didn't bother to join the wagon that was clearly always going to go through anyway?

[staypositivefriend]

i was talking about Day one

i dont even remember u wagoning arete on d1 but it's possible u did and i just forgot

[staypositivefriend]

i am in an aggressive mood so i'll probably hold off on scumhunting until tomorrow when i am more calm lol

[staypositivefriend]

i would be fairly surprised if catboi was a wolf after he went out of his way to vote/lead on arete toward the end of yesterday - it would have been extremely easy for him to vote me instead and go to the endgame with arete, and i don't really think he was in a position where bussing was strategically necessary or even beneficial for him to do. the way that arete panic-claimed mafia to get STD to out also felt like something they did as a result of being wagoned by catboi and not like something that was planned in the long-term, which decreases the odds that catboi/arete were doing a bussing strategy

think that penguin and pooky also both spewed themselves as not partners with arete as well and while i dont think a&r actually did, i still feel that they are almost certainly out of wolfrange and that if they are wolfing this game both of them are playing significantly out of their typical wolf meta

when i pair that with arete basically refusing to take a stance on not mafia for multiple dayphases and then awkwardly trying to push penguin over nm when it looked like we might resolve between the two of them, and not_mafia blatantly siding with arete for pretty much the entire game, the answer that requires the least amount of assumptions and the answer that seems the most obviously true is that nm is just wolfing

dont really know who the mafia would be in that world but i also dont really care rn because if we manage to kill the final wolf today then we're more or less in autowin

again i will go through all of these reads today to make sure they check out and to make sure that my memory isnt failing me, but that's basically where my head is at rn

[staypositivefriend]

what is surprising to me is that I don't think you had a good reason to unvote and relieve pressure on Arete and you never seem to revisit them again, instead opting to make votes on Meditation & 4Maskwolf and being generally disengaged with wolf poppins.

that refresher is actually helpful, thank you. to my memory, i had felt that my initial exchange with arete had basically run its course and i was gradually ceding more and more ground to them throughout our conversation (like in #385 where i acknowledged that i could understand how it would be possible for them to make the read i was pressuring them on from a town arete perspective)

part of the reason i was pressuring arete so much in the first place is because i thought the way they jumped to assuming me/penguin were partners based on how i was pressuring them felt fake/illogical in a way that arete usually isnt, so when arete acknowledged shortly after that me/penguin might not actually be partnered anymore and they also started coming to a world where i was town, i thought it was possible that we were both town that just had a miscommunication with each other. this also is a big part of what led to me townreading them for a while after until i concluded they were proly a wolf sometime around yesterday

it definitely didnt help that i was (admittely) demotivated for a good dayphase or two and to be honest, didnt really care about my reads or solving the game that much. that said, in a world where i committed to doing that type of elaborate wolf theater with arete, i doubt my progression on them would ever be so sloppy, and i also doubt i would just abruptly stop talking about them and then suddenly start townreading them a bit later like the way that i did. that would be a really really sloppy way to follow up with what would have needed to be some very coordinated wolf theater lol

i might be misremembering some finer points because it was a while ago but that was more or less my thought process wrt to arete in the first few dayphases

[staypositivefriend]

sup brad

[staypositivefriend]

sup brad

Hi SPF.

What do you think the move is today?

probably to kill not_mafia and then go from there but i wont be able to say with confidence until ive done some more reading/ISOing

[staypositivefriend]

did ur reads change at all after the arete flip?

[staypositivefriend]

did ur reads change at all after the arete flip?

Probably Penguin town, still have you and Cat town.

- Brad

why penguin town? (i think i agree but i wanna hear ur reasoning)

[staypositivefriend]

did ur reads change at all after the arete flip?

Probably Penguin town, still have you and Cat town.

- Brad

why penguin town? (i think i agree but i wanna hear ur reasoning)

Basically jumping on the Arete wagon early yesterday, and then voting them once the CC happened. Like 0 defense of them which I would assume Arete's partner would do in that situation.

okay - idk if i fully agree that it was towny for penguin to immediately vote for arete once the CC happened, because i think that arete would likely encourage their partner to bus them at that point (since they were pretty much outed and always dying anyway), but i do think that penguin is likely spewed not partners with arete from the way that he consistently voted/pushed on arete throughout the game, particularly on d1, and the way arete pushed on him/framed him as a wolfy with timing that came off as opportunistic yesterday

[staypositivefriend]

if Penguin is town this means NM is Mafia and the last wolf is between SPF/AnR

why's that? why can't nm be the wolf?

[staypositivefriend]

no clue if penguin could be mafia or not because i havent looked at that side of the spew, but i dont think he's a wolf atm

[staypositivefriend]

did ur reads change at all after the arete flip?

Probably Penguin town, still have you and Cat town.

- Brad

why penguin town? (i think i agree but i wanna hear ur reasoning)

Basically jumping on the Arete wagon early yesterday, and then voting them once the CC happened. Like 0 defense of them which I would assume Arete's partner would do in that situation.

okay - idk if i fully agree that it was towny for penguin to immediately vote for arete once the CC happened, because i think that arete would likely encourage their partner to bus them at that point (since they were pretty much outed and always dying anyway), but

i do think that penguin is likely spewed not partners with arete

from the way that he consistently voted/pushed on arete throughout the game, particularly on d1, and the way arete pushed on him/framed him as a wolfy with timing that came off as opportunistic yesterday

[staypositivefriend]

when i said i agreed that penguin was town i meant that i agreed he's not a wolf bcuz im not trying to mafia hunt at all today

but i see the confusion ig

[staypositivefriend]

do u think that penguin is town

[staypositivefriend]

????? i said that the wolf agenda is going to be focused on snuffing out the mafia team as quickly as possible, not that the wolf agenda is going to be focused on killing between not_mafia and penguin power. did u read my post correctly?

NM/PenguinPower/STD have the highest mafia equity in the game period. 2/3 of them are likely mafia

you want to kill in that group

that's you hunting for mafia under the veneer of hunting for wolf

the same thing you just accused Arete of doing not even 15 minutes ago

no i want to kill specifically within penguin/STD, which is probably 50% mafia and 50% wolf. shockingly, this is because i want to kill the wolves

This actually makes no sense to be given you knowing Arete is wolf because Arete has almost no Wolf Equity with Penguin as you now state.

im like 90% sure the post u quoted was a typo and i meant to type penguin/n_m and not penguin/std, since i was advocating for resolving btwn penguin/nm for most of the day

[staypositivefriend]

do u think that penguin is town

yea, him roasting me about misreading him as mafia sounded p townie

meh i dont know if i care about that but i agree it felt mildly towny

[staypositivefriend]

im going to have a very difficult time coming to an AnR wolf world but i will read their ISO tomorrow with an open mind

[staypositivefriend]

pooky can u take a look at arete's progression on n_m when u get a chance and give me ur thoughts? think they seem fairly compatible based on that alone

[staypositivefriend]

Mafia team is 2 of STD/Peng/NM

also fwiw you seem to be parsing this as 2 maf/1 town and I think it's more likely 2 maf/1 wolf

mostly because them having 1 town means one of them is town but also because I don't want to believe that I'm misreading two people in my townpool

i think this spews the 2nd wolf being in townblock and not shady krew

how so?

[staypositivefriend]

well they were primarily interested in hunting for the maf, right? isn't it possible that they thought the maf were in the shadykrew even if their partner was in the shadykrew as well? u said urself that the wolves bussed yesterday, so it might have been worth the risk of potentially bussing if it meant being able to get rid of the opposing team

it's not like arete actually pushed on n_m within the shadykrew (who i think has the highest amount of wolf equity of anyone here rn), so i dont really buy that as a reason to think that the other wolf has to be in the townblock

i get what ur saying though

[staypositivefriend]

in theory isnt getting one or more of the opposing team to out themselves worth the potential tradeoff of having to bus ur partner, particularly in a world where ur partner is n_m and is likely to die within the near future regardless of whether u push on him on that day or not?

[staypositivefriend]

in theory isnt getting one or more of the opposing team to out themselves worth the potential tradeoff of having to bus ur partner, particularly in a world where ur partner is n_m and is likely to die within the near future regardless of whether u push on him on that day or not?

[staypositivefriend]

well they were primarily interested in hunting for the maf, right? isn't it possible that they thought the maf were in the shadykrew even if their partner was in the shadykrew as well? u said urself that the wolves bussed yesterday, so it might have been worth the risk of potentially bussing if it meant being able to get rid of the opposing team

it's not like arete actually pushed on n_m within the shadykrew (who i think has the highest amount of wolf equity of anyone here rn), so i dont really buy that as a reason to think that the other wolf has to be in the townblock

i get what ur saying though

I mean even if NM is wolf and Peng/STD r 2 Mafia, Arete pushing on STD will still lead to NM getting yeeted because STD would probly just claim if he got to yeet range and point at NM rather than just die for no reason so it makes no sense for Arete to do this.

much easier for them to simply bus NM directly, get that towncred for later, and shoot the mafia at night or w/e.

but i mean, why take the risk of potentially shooting a villager at night when u can just push within the names that u think are mafia and then get the mafia to out themselves for u? if the wolves primary goal was to fish out the mafia team like u were claiming, then just bussing their partner doesn't accomplish that goal, and it runs the potential risk of bussing their partner and then killing a villager at night, which would be pretty bad for the wolfteam in general

in theory i understand what youre saying but i just dont really think it clears the people in the shadykrew from being wolf like you imply that it does

granted i will admit that a big part of the reason i think this is because i find the a&r slot being a wolf a pretty difficult sell whereas i think n_m being a wolf makes a lot of intuitive self based on interactions/meta/etc

[staypositivefriend]

in theory isnt getting one or more of the opposing team to out themselves worth the potential tradeoff of having to bus ur partner, particularly in a world where ur partner is n_m and is likely to die within the near future regardless of whether u push on him on that day or not?

??

if NM is Wolf then the mafia team is already outted to Arete since Arete knows nobody was bussing ydra so STD/Peng would have to be the mafia team.

i feel like ur assuming what arete's perspective would be to a level that doesn't really feel logical though - i agree that arete probably thought that the mafia were in the shadykrew but it's also inherently safer to get them to out themselves for u instead of just assuming ur reads are right and trying to kill them at night

[staypositivefriend]

if i was a wolf in that position then i would find it worth the risk to bus to get the opposing team to mechanically out themselves to me, even if i thought the team was obvious without them mechanically outing themselves

[staypositivefriend]

if the ShadyKrew distribution is 2 Mafia - 1 VT, it is optimal for arete to push in the ShadyKrew

if the ShadyKrew distribution is 2 Mafia - 1 wolf, it is optimal for arete to push in the ShadyKrew

meaning that, the fact that arete pushed in the ShadyKrew does not inherently tell me anything about what the inherent distribution of the ShadyKrew must be, because i find it easy to believe that arete would push in that Krew regardless of the distribution, since, in either case, it is likely that they perceived the Krew to contain multiple members of their opposing team

and at the end of the day i just disagree with u because i think that the sabi/brad slot is town (pending a re-read) and think n_m is clearly partnered with arete so, shrug

[staypositivefriend]

if the ShadyKrew distribution is 2 Mafia - 1 VT, it is optimal for arete to push in the ShadyKrew

if the ShadyKrew distribution is 2 Mafia - 1 wolf, it is optimal for arete to push in the ShadyKrew

meaning that, the fact that arete pushed in the ShadyKrew does not inherently tell me anything about what the inherent distribution of the ShadyKrew must be, because i find it easy to believe that arete would push in that Krew regardless of the distribution, since, in either case, it is likely that they perceived the Krew to contain multiple members of their opposing team

and at the end of the day i just disagree with u because i think that the sabi/brad slot is town (pending a re-read) and think n_m is clearly partnered with arete so, shrug

and you can disagree that it is optimal for arete to push in the shadykrew if the distribution is 2 mafia - 1 wolf but i dont find it difficult to believe that arete would, so it's a moot point to me

[staypositivefriend]

VOTE: SaveTheDragons

hi

I think that you/NotMafia/Penguin is three nontown

I think that your interactions with Ydrasse are the partneriest of anyone

if you claim mafia, and tell me to vote someone on that list, I will unvote and sheep you unquestioningly. I think that mafia is in the best position of anyone in the game to be able to figure out who, of those people, is a werewolf, like that should be either 2 mafia/1 werewolf or 1 mafia/2 werewolves

you don't need to tell me anything else, I'm not going to be like 'haha but who's your partner though' or like 'btw please make reads on these random people definitely not looking for spew' or anything

I am, obviously, misreading someone in my town group. if you really want to try to sell me on one of them being specifically-a-werewolf I will hear you out but you are going to have to actually sell it.

i mean to me it looks like arete successfully figured out that STD had high partner equity with ydrasse and was going out of their way to try to get him to mechanically confirm himself, which is something i believe they would do even in a world where their partner happened to be contained within notmafia/penguin

you also keep acting like arete pushing within std/penguin/not_mafia would inevitably lead to their partner getting killed when this is not necessarily the case (ie: the mafia could refuse to out themselves out of stubbornness, the mafia COULD out themselves but choose to lead the chop on arete's non-partner in a world where arete is wrong about the pool containing 2 wolves and it only contains 1, etc etc)

in any scenario, the way that the mafia reacted to being pushed on would give the wolfteam an immediate advantage in being able to snuff out who their opposing team is and who they are the most likely to be partnered with, which is worth the potential risk of a partner dying

[staypositivefriend]

and even if it would technically be mechanically optimal to yeet a town within the townbloc, i can honestly see arete just wanting to figure out who their opposing team is and get them out of the game ASAP with no other mechanical considerations in mind

i care a lot more about who looks the worst off of spew and off of the way that arete directly treated/interacted with them than i do about arete's mechanical approach because it is impossible to know if arete would have approached yesterday in the most mechanically optimal way possible yesterday

[staypositivefriend]

on that note can u pls look at arete's progression and interactions with n_m and tell me if u think they look partnered?

[staypositivefriend]

havent really had time to play this game today but gira when u get a chance can u pls look at arete's interactions with not_mafia and tell me if u think they have partner equity?

[staypositivefriend]

i will return the favor by looking at a&r tomorrow when i am free

[staypositivefriend]

Arete's reads feel fine, them talking about the Ace portion of Abomination basically aligns itself with how I was reading that slot. 4mask read I agree on. Adding them to my townlist.

- Brad

VOTE: Arete LastWoof

- Brad

Town:

SPF
Catboi

Townlean:

Pooky
Abomination
Arete
Ydrasse

That's really it.

- Brad

yeah, the shift from calling arete a townlean > voting for arete when me and pooky vote for them > calling arete a townlean again with no explanation for how he got from point A to point B is a bit wonky, and technically compatible even though i'm still not really convinced that's the case

[staypositivefriend]

ok so why dont u vote for arete then?

I'd rather vote for you.

that said, this post feels kind of cocky and confrontational in a way that brad usually isnt as a scum lol, and tbh im not sure if hed be bold enough as a wolf to make a post like this in response to pooky asking for him to vote his partner

[staypositivefriend]

they've basically just been spamming 'Arete bad' all game and doing almost nothing else and it makes me sad when people do that and then turn out to be town

you're like the 4th player i've pushed after brad sabi and spf

it's not my fault they towntold and people screamed that this is obvtown them and nobody is coming to bat for you

maybe you have shitty friends

Brad and Sabi are 1 slot, why are you counting them twice

if you're looking for people to scream about me being as obvtown as Brad you're never going to get it, Brad is legit one of the worst wolves I know, like I am not exaggerating when I say that in his last scumgame that I was in he outed himself 10 posts into the day

and Brad is screaming about SPF because he's incapable of scumreading EM girls (or really girls at all but it's more noticeable with EM girls), I realize that this is kind of a shitty thing to say about someone but his friends from EM all seem to agree that it's true so I don't really feel guilty about saying it (though I am currently leaning town on SPF)

so like

...if you want to read me you could try reading my actual posts?

also i sense some real salt/frustration from arete to brad in this post that doesnt exactly feel like W/W tbh

[staypositivefriend]

I've done a lot more than talk about wanting to murder you

I actually have a lot of people I am willing to murder

btw who do you want to murder other than my adorable penguin sidekick

well I think Meditation is lying but I acknowledge that it is optimal to give them a night to resolve

4mask was like 'I acknowledge the thing you're pushing me for is wolfy in general but it's NAI for me' and I was like 'ok give receipts' and then he never did, would be happy going there

Not Mafia/Ydrasse/Save The Dragons are all in a bucket of 'have not been townie, would not be overwhelmingly surprised at either flip' but I have enough other people I'm feeling good about to think they all have decent wolf equity. That's sorted left-to-right from most-want-dead to least-want-dead but that's pretty much fully based on how much they're doing to solve not on an actual alignment read

or

we could kill Penguin

i think the best argument i can find for not mafia being town is the fact that arete slotted him at the top of their "want dead the most" pool, but this doesnt really mean much to me since they avoided pushing on not mafia at any other point throughout the game

also you can apply the same logic to me, and are Somehow Selectively Choosing To Not

there's not anyone alive who I can be partnered with

I guess unless you think that I'm specifically mafia with specifically STD and we're being super galaxy-brain about it

i dont see any reason why u couldnt be partnered with not_mafia and im also not sure that i buy ur claim that u/penguin are spewed non W/W with each other but i'll look into it more

I'm not with N_M because they've been going out of their way today to directly appeal to me, try and come up with a vote I'm willing to follow them on, etc.

also because it hasn't been working but 'them doing them at all' is the major point here

also this post felt like gaslighting to me in the moment but gaslighting in a way that is intended to obfuscate from an obvious truth (ie: arete acting like not_mafia and them are obviously dissociated even though the reasoning theyre giving to justify that rad is just outright untrue)

[staypositivefriend]

if im being honest i still kind of think it's just n_m lol

ii realized earlier that there's an outside chance of it being catboi who is simply playing the long game but if that's the case then he already won and it's probably not worth trying to catch him

[staypositivefriend]

i feel like the fact that n_m overtly sided with arete for the entirety of yesterday is probably a bigger smoking gun than anything i could come up with for A&R tbh

[staypositivefriend]

i feel like the fact that n_m overtly sided with arete for the entirety of yesterday is probably a bigger smoking gun than anything i could come up with for A&R tbh

NM siding with scum is just normal NM

I don't see how A&R didn't side with Arete Scum yesterday

not_mafia actively pushed for me and catboi whereas a&r just kind of sat around and twiddled their thumbs

in both cases, neither of them were townsiding, but not_mafia sided with arete in a way i find a bit more egregious

[staypositivefriend]

alright but in the absence of reasons to call him town + everyone else looking townier, he might just be scum anyway

[staypositivefriend]

i would feel more confident about the second world being true if the brad slot would actually post today

[staypositivefriend]

uh okay

[staypositivefriend]

not confident in this flipping wolf but we'll see what happens lol

[staypositivefriend]

it took me a while to figure out if i was actually allowed to post rn

[staypositivefriend]

if AnR flips VT don't forget to no-lim tomm

why would it be optimal to no-lim in a world where AnR is VT? wouldn't it be more optimal to chop in the MYLO or am i missing something?

[staypositivefriend]

why would you not be allowed to post

because the day was hammered

[staypositivefriend]

if AnR flips VT don't forget to no-lim tomm

why would it be optimal to no-lim in a world where AnR is VT? wouldn't it be more optimal to chop in the MYLO or am i missing something?

if AnR is vt we wake up tomm at 1 mafia 1 wolf 2 VT or 1 wolf 3 VT

either way its good to no lim

ah okay, it makes sense to me now that im doing the math in my head

[staypositivefriend]

why would you not be allowed to post

because the day was hammered

we're allowed to talk in twilight here because we don't have pesky bots that autolock the thread

ive played on some sites without bots where everyone is just expected to shut up until the host logs in and posts the flip lol

[staypositivefriend]

thanks for the carry i guess

i feel kind of bad for insulting brad's wolfgame so much when he posted well enough to fool me in this game lol

[staypositivefriend]

it's probably just penguin i guess?

[staypositivefriend]

i am not voting either pooky or catboi today lol

Ydrasse fine with you?

- Brad

sure

VOTE: Ydrasse

to be clear i am voting ydrasse because her posts feel the most uncomfortable and struggling to get into the game compared to almost anyone here. i am also willing to vote just about anyone else in my POE. there's probably one wolf within pooky/catboi/abomination that's voting for me but unfortunately i think the current wagon on me is mostly being driven by town who just dont understand how to read me

VOTE: save the dragons

will post some thoughts later. a little bit demoralized by the flips tbh

if catboi, abbyandrani, and arete are all town, it means that there are 5 mafia and 1 town in save the dragons/pooky/abomination/ydrasse/not_mafia/penguin power, which means that i can actually just blindly tunnel in my POE and have about a 90% chance of pushing on mafia

within those names i think one of abomination/pooky is the most likely to be the town and theyre going to have to duke it out battle royale style for me to decide which one of them should survive

the abomination slot townreading the save the dragon slot when they have been howling for well over a dayphase now is proof to me that the abomination slot is not actually trying to solve regardless of their alignment

i mean if ur reads r accurate and good and there's only like 5 townies left it shouldnt exactly be hard to catch baddies atp

or do u just not care cuz this game is multiball

yes and my vote is on one of the baddies right now. this post:

i think that abby and rani ignored other people who did the same thing i did to specifically target me for some reason and i think that's scummy

i think that abby and rani have done some ATE that have tugged on catboi's heartstrings but isn't affecting me

they've pinged me as scummy just from a vibes perspective i know that's not really answerable but i can't ignore my gut

i think abby and rani and catboi may have some partner equity but that's not really a great point

4mask hasn't really done anything of note. could be scum hiding/not wanting to post frequently. probably closer to a null read than a scum read but just the vibe i get is scummy

is probably borderline outing for save the dragons and so has the way that he's done nothing today beyond lazily push on my townreads

im willing to hard tunnel basically anyone that isnt in my towncore but i will admit to not feeling particularly motivated or really caring about this game all that much when most of the ppl im going to interact with are mafia lol

[staypositivefriend]

if you think that i spent the first two dayphases of this game hardpushing and hardbussing both of my mafia partners in a setup where bussing would be explicitly against my win condition, then you're just insulting my wolf game tbh

im not stupid and i wouldnt bus myself into literal autoloss when it is entirely and completely unnecessary and when there would be millions of other better and easier options to push instead

[staypositivefriend]

if catboi votes me today then i want him kiilled tomorrow on policy. idc how harsh it sounds but if there's one person in this game who i would expect to know that im experienced enough to not play in the most dumbass and sub-optimal way possible, it would be him

[staypositivefriend]

i think that penguin has the most obvious partner equity with ydrasse/std based on the quick reading ive done, but i admittedly haven't spend much time digging into pooky/catboi and will do so to make sure im not getting pocketed

[staypositivefriend]

also pooky you spent the first several dayphases of this game talking about how i obviously am not a wolf based on my interactions with ydrasse and savethedragons so the fact that youre willing to vote me at all is laughable

[staypositivefriend]

also pooky you spent the first several dayphases of this game talking about how i obviously am not a wolf based on my interactions with ydrasse and savethedragons so the fact that youre willing to vote me at all is laughable

not mafia*

[staypositivefriend]

i'm town cuz i've had thread control for the last 5 days and I have no reason to bus ydra or yeet NM when dude is literally just riding around in my pocket

if ur town then my suggestion is stop playing in favor of the mafia lol

[staypositivefriend]

also pooky you spent the first several dayphases of this game talking about how i obviously am not a wolf based on my interactions with ydrasse and savethedragons so the fact that youre willing to vote me at all is laughable

well I've played more with catbae than you so I am more confident he is town than you sorry

well if ur that confident that catbae is town then it's probably just penguin

i should be blatantly not mafia from your point of view - as much as someone can be confirmed not mafia without being literally mod confirmed

[staypositivefriend]

I’m literally not going to fight you spf. There is no point if the next elims are me and you.

But keep tryharding scum.

i mean i think the reason youre not tryharding is because youre maf and you know the game is over even if you manage to get me yeeted today, so this doesnt really prove anything to me

[staypositivefriend]

I’m literally not going to fight you spf. There is no point if the next elims are me and you.

But keep tryharding scum.

i mean i think the reason youre not tryharding is because youre maf and you know the game is over even if you manage to get me yeeted today, so this doesnt really prove anything to me

like - if pooky is scum he has done waaaaaaaay more than he has had to to win this and he strongly believes that catboi is town so....it doesn't really matter what either of us think. neither of us are voting pooky and neither of us are elim'ing catboi soo.....keep tryharding scum

sounds to me like youre maf and youve already given up, so alright ig

[staypositivefriend]

and i would expect you to be playing exactly the way ur playing rn as scum so i guess we're at an impasse

[staypositivefriend]

mainly because im planning on doing my due diligence on pooky/catbae but there prolly isnt a world where i dont end today with my vote on you

[staypositivefriend]

idk i just dont wanna be dumb and lose the game for everyone because i got tunnel vision on you and didnt make sure im not missing something obvious from pooky/catbae that would make them have W/W equity with ydrasse or STD. it seems like the bare minimum thing to do really

[staypositivefriend]

and i am afraid of a hammer because u all ended two dayphases without me lol

[staypositivefriend]

there's no point in trying to make myself look better at this point bcuz like u said urself, you and me are probably always going to get killed back to back no matter what conclusion i independently reach

ii just want to be as least responsible for the incoming loss as possible in a world where we're t/t

[staypositivefriend]

also didnt u said that u gave up? why are u even bothering to question me rn? lol

[staypositivefriend]

does the way day 2 played out even make sense if catboi is mafia rofl

i dont even remember how d2 played out at this point to be quite honest lol

[staypositivefriend]

man im gonna look like a moron if it really is catboi but my soul is ready for the pain of losing

^
like this is what i'm talking about...it's you or me.

personally i believe in thinking for myself

[staypositivefriend]

i mean how is it even possible for u think that im mafia lol

[staypositivefriend]

put catbae aside and just think individually about how ive played the game. do u think that i even have a smidge of mafia equity? even the smallest amount?

[staypositivefriend]

i mean how is it even possible for u think that im mafia lol

i've played like 50+ games with pengy/catboi and I've played one game with you

okay but you should, at minimum, be aware that i am a relatively good player who has more than a couple of braincells rattling around

which means the fact that i hardpushed on both of the flipped mafia means that i am never mafia, since it would be extremely sub-optimal to hardbus both of ur mafia partners in a setup that incentivizes keeping them alive as much as possible

[staypositivefriend]

if you think that i spent the first two dayphases of this game hardpushing and hardbussing both of my mafia partners in a setup where bussing would be explicitly against my win condition, then you're just insulting my wolf game tbh

im not stupid and i wouldnt bus myself into literal autoloss when it is entirely and completely unnecessary and when there would be millions of other better and easier options to push instead

if catboi votes me today then i want him kiilled tomorrow on policy. idc how harsh it sounds but if there's one person in this game who i would expect to know that im experienced enough to not play in the most dumbass and sub-optimal way possible, it would be him

I don't define the posts you quoteed as "hard pushing" and I would actually expect you to distance from two partners who had little in the way of WIM this game. I think there's a chance that thse reads could jus be informed as compared to the wolf reads, but ydra and std were easy reads for me too so maybe that's a bit hypocritical of me.

But I'm not dead set on the read by any means, I'm willing to hear you out while I do my own homework. If I am wrong and you're town, don't hold it against me - I've been wrong a lot before and will continue to be wrong a lot in the future.

i think it's reasonable to say that i might distance a bit from my partners if i perceived them to be LHF/inevitable yeets, but you're actually underselling just how hard i pushed on both of them. i was the first person in the game (to my memory) to vote for save the dragons and i pushed the narrative that he was a blatant and outed scum before ydrasse even flipped and made him quasi-confirmed. i also voted ydrasse willingly and without hesitation when brad asked me to when, again, there were plenty of easier and more viable targets FMPOV (such as arete or penguin or nm or pretty much anyone)

generally there's a fine line between distancing and bussing to an extent that puts you into a nearly assured mechanical autoloss, and i would pretty much never do the latter and i would expect you to see that in a world where youre town

im not trying to ate you though, i understand that misreads happen, i just find it kind of genuinely difficult to believe that you wouldnt agree with this line of logic if u are town with me

[staypositivefriend]

god i wish the EM forum archives weren't dead so I could read north pole oligarchy lol

i have some fairly recent scum games on MU if that's what ur looking for lol

[staypositivefriend]

north pole oligarchy is actually a good frame of reference since i was also mafia in that game and went out of my way to protect my partners for the first few dayphases until it became mechanically necessary on like ...d3/d4 to start bussing them lol

[staypositivefriend]

okay but you should, at minimum, be aware that i am a relatively good player who has more than a couple of braincells rattling around

ok but you did tell me you wanted to solve for the wolves in shadykrew and there are no wolves in shadykrew

alright fair enough but i did also nail two wolves on d1 so we can call it even

[staypositivefriend]

okay but you should, at minimum, be aware that i am a relatively good player who has more than a couple of braincells rattling around

ok but you did tell me you wanted to solve for the wolves in shadykrew and there are no wolves in shadykrew

alright fair enough but i did also nail two wolves on d1 so we can call it even

two mafia***

[staypositivefriend]

its not that hard to nail people in your role pm

it is dangerous and overly risky to do though!

[staypositivefriend]

let's say we yeet you today and let you pick who dies tomm

who do you want?

pending further evaluation the obvious answer is "penguin"

but ask me again in like 24 hours

[staypositivefriend]

i would pay an unreasonable amount of money to see an archive of north pole oligarchy

[staypositivefriend]

also yeah i did get killed cause i flew too close to the sun and put myself in the kill list lol

[staypositivefriend]

also regardless of anything else i just want to point out that im pretty firmly out of my general scum range at this point

https://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/th ... l-Vig-10er

^^link to a recent game where i got killed d1 as mafia if u dont believe me

[staypositivefriend]

okay but that entire game had meta on u cmon lol

okay that is a valid point lol but i was still way way wolfier than i am here

[staypositivefriend]

VOTE: staypositivefriend

im gay

[staypositivefriend]

rip me

[staypositivefriend]

was cool to play another game on this site, gg all

[staypositivefriend]

it was nice to play with you again spf !

also fun to meet new faces hai brad, sabi, arete, koala cop, 4maskwoof, Metalmarsh89, Mulch, Dolby, HK, NANOOK, Cape90, lendunistus, Fatmo, Ace Marvel, Vroendal, & Neon Abigail, Sparkle$, penguin master 69.

thanks for playing !

likewise, you were probably the player i was the most actively cautious of and i spent a ton of this game explicitly playing around you/trying to avoid your suspicion lol